Economics & Investing For Preppers

Today, since I’m on the road back to the Rawles Ranch and don’t have much time available for column writing, I’m posting a guest article in lieu of my regular column. It was written by one of my favorite market analysts:

The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History, by Avi Gilburt

(Originally published at the Elliot Wave Technical Analyst, September 21, 2021. Reposted with permision.)

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Yeah, I know everyone is so certain that inflation is what we will be battling for the foreseeable future. The main reason why many of you are so certain we are battling inflation is because you are seeing prices rise on food and other items for which you shop. But, do rising prices really mean we are dealing with the true economic definition of inflation?

To be honest, I really don’t care what you call it. It makes no difference to me since our analysis tells me when to get in and out of the market. You see, I and many others correctly recognize that the stock market leads the economy. So economic definitions have no bearing upon our forward-looking expectations regarding the stock market. And, I have explained why this is the case in past articles:

How To Analyze Market Sentiment Along With Market Fundamentals

Many have vigorously argued with me about this over the past decade during which I have been writing on Seeking Alpha. Yet, none of them have been able to tell you accurately where the market is headed, while we have been quite accurate in our stock market analysis for many years.

In fact, at the time we were bottoming at my target of 2200SPX, a commenter to one of my articles at the time challenged me and suggested that I was 100% wrong in my expectation that the bull market would carry us back to 4000SPX. And, he based his perspective on the “economy.”

He strongly exclaimed that the bull market was dead as it was deeply into bear market territory, and that it was not possible for it to take us to 4000SPX. His argument was that the economy was going to pull the market down a lot further and the 4,000 region was a lot further away than my charts ever suggested. He viewed the market as finally following the economy, from which it was supposedly long divorced according to him. He viewed this as “common sense,” and urged readers to avoid believing that my “chart magic” would take us up to 4000SPX.

Yet, those that have followed my “chart magic” for the last decade know just how well it has performed in the real world, whereas his “common sense” view has been quite misleading and wrong for some time.Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — October 3, 2021

October 3rd is the anniversary of the Mogadishu, Somalia raid. The 18 Americans killed were:

MSG Gary Gordon, 1st SFOD-D
SFC Randy Shughart, 1st SFOD-D
SSG Daniel Busch, 1st SFOD-D
SFC Earl Fillmore, 1st SFOD-D
MSG Timothy Martin, 1st SFOD-D
CPL Jamie Smith, 3/75 Ranger
SPC James Cavaco, 3/75 Ranger
SGT Casey Joyce, 3/75 Ranger
PFC Richard Kowaleski, 3/75 Ranger
SGT Dominic Pilla, 3/75 Ranger
SGT Lorenzo Ruis, 3/75 Ranger
SSG William Cleveland, Jr. 160th SOAR
SSG Thomas Field, 160th SOAR
CW4 Raymond Frank, 160th SOAR
CW3 Clifton Wolcott, 160th SOAR
CW2 Donovan Briley, 160th SOAR
SGT Cornell Houston, 10th MTN DIV
PFC James Martin, 10th MTN DIV

The Somalis killed were unnamed and un-numbered, but estimates range from 315 to 2,000 KIAs.

The events of October 3, 1993 were memorialized in the movie Black Hawk Down.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 97 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

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More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 97 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Hand Sanitizer, A Knife, and Eyeglasses Cleaner, by The Novice

I would like to pass along some odd discoveries for your amusement and edification.

Repurposing Surplus Hand Sanitizer

With the advent of Covid, many micro breweries and chemical companies in our area turned their production capacity to making hand sanitizer. They wanted to do their part to help slow the spread of Covid.

No good deed goes unpunished. On December 29, 2020, the FDA notified these companies that they needed to pay a $14,060 Monograph Drug Facility Fee and $9,373 Contract Manufacturing Organization Facility Fee by February 11, 2021. After significant media outcry, the fees were withdrawn. They are a bitter reminder that the first reflex of many bureaucrats is to exploit the suffering of citizens rather than to alleviate that suffering.

When it became increasingly clear that Covid was not easily transmitted by touching infected surfaces, many companies were left with a huge surplus of hand sanitizer. Some of this surplus made its way to our local thrift stores, where at times it was practically being given away.

Recently I was in a thrift store, and noticed several one-quart sized bottles of hand sanitizer on the shelf. They cost one dollar each. I read the label, and discovered that they consisted of 90% alcohol, with the rest of the ingredients consisting of hydrogen peroxide and glycerin. Since I was not in any immediate need of hand sanitizer, I walked on by.

Later in the week, a question came to mind. I wondered if this surplus hand sanitizer could be re-purposed.

I returned to the thrift store a couple of days later to discover that all of the 90% alcohol hand sanitizer was gone. A single, quart-sized bottle of 80% alcohol hand sanitizer remained, at a cost of two dollars. I bought it for testing.Continue reading“Hand Sanitizer, A Knife, and Eyeglasses Cleaner, by The Novice”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“And I saw a new heaven and a new earth: for the first heaven and the first earth were passed away; and there was no more sea.

And I John saw the holy city, new Jerusalem, coming down from God out of heaven, prepared as a bride adorned for her husband.

And I heard a great voice out of heaven saying, Behold, the tabernacle of God is with men, and he will dwell with them, and they shall be his people, and God himself shall be with them, and be their God.

And God shall wipe away all tears from their eyes; and there shall be no more death, neither sorrow, nor crying, neither shall there be any more pain: for the former things are passed away.

And he that sat upon the throne said, Behold, I make all things new. And he said unto me, Write: for these words are true and faithful.

And he said unto me, It is done. I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end. I will give unto him that is athirst of the fountain of the water of life freely.

He that overcometh shall inherit all things; and I will be his God, and he shall be my son.” – Revelation 21:1-7  (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — October 2, 2021

This marks the birthday of Mohandes Gandhi (1869–1948). Ben Kingsley did a fine job of portraying him in the award-winning movie Gandhi.

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Today we present two short feature guest articles written by SurvivalBllog readers. They were both too short to qualify for the judging in the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $725,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running the contest. Round 97 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

This is Not My Planned TEOTWAWKI , by S.F. in Oregon

I’ve planned and prepared for a panoply of disasters: Financial collapse?  Check.  EMP strike?  Check.  Mutant Biker Apocalypse?  Check.  Slow descent into Third World conditions?  Hmmm…  This is not the TEOTWAWKI I prepared for.  So, let’s regroup and reassess.
As society collapses slowly in what can only be described as a slow-motion-controlled demolition of civilization, what are we witnessing?

Labor shortages, at least for now.  Perhaps the end of unemployment benefits will reverse this, but if this is planned (The Great Reset), then it may continue.  How does this play out?  The other day a friend who does not make a habit of refilling his gas tank at the 1/2 way point had to drive all over town to find an open station at 11pm.  He ended up having to borrow some of my ethanol-free stabilized gasoline stash.  Okay, that prep was still useful.  What else?  Deliveries slow down.  My fulfillment house is now taking twice as long to ship inventory for my business.  The other day a domestic  FedEx delivery got stuck at a terminal hub for days.  Why? Labor shortages.  This means that things you want to purchase including parts for repairs take longer and longer to source.

I suspect that there will come a time when the delay times extend faster than the production times increase.  Think of it this way:  Once a swimmer reaches a point where the ocean current is pushing him out to sea faster than he can swim to shore, he’s not going to get back to dry land.  We may already be at that point for certain items.  In time, many everyday items may become ‘unobtainium’.

Continue reading“This is Not My Planned TEOTWAWKI , by S.F. in Oregon”

Books, Reviews, and Censorship, by M.M.

As a historian and self-confessed bibliophile, I despise censorship of any kind by anyone at any time. If you disagree with an author, the simple course of action is to not purchase their work(s).

With the Internet, books are easier to come by today than in any other time in human history. You can shop in thousands of bookstores and never leave home. Click some buttons and the book is en route to your mailbox and will arrive in a few days.

An easy way to access the internet is via your so-called smartphone. What a wonderful tool. You can reach out to friends and family from just about anywhere on the planet. You can order stuff from anywhere on the planet. You can take photographs anywhere at any time. The flip side is bad characters and government can reach out to you, also. Your smartphone is imminently hackable, and your life is an open book. The folks who invented the smartphone just issued a new security alert warning of just that. Please download the latest software update to protect yourself.

They have announced the introduction of their thirteenth version of the device. I do not own one so I will withhold opinion on the value of the new attractions. My idiot phone (an older flip cellphone) meets all of my needs.

As I was writing this review article, I received an offer in the mail from my telephone service provider to extend my service for two more years. In return for which they will send me a “free” smartphone. Sorry folks, I learned a long time ago nothing is free. So, why is it so important to my provider that I carry a smartphone? Is my information that worthy of their analysis? I have no desire to collect information for them to be stored on the ‘cloud’.Continue reading“Books, Reviews, and Censorship, by M.M.”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in this column, in the Odds ‘n Sods Column, and in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

I’ll be in transit the day that this is posted, and the following day, so I don’t have a lot to report. All that I can say is that I’m greatly looking forward to getting back to the Rawles Ranch.  I’ll have a lot of catching up to do there, and it looks like I’ll have a lot of orders to pack, since our shopping cart system has been reactivated.

“Meanwhile, back at the ranch…” my lovely wife Avalanche Lily has some details for you.

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Yet it came to pass, when the children of Israel were waxen strong, that they put the Canaanites to tribute, but did not utterly drive them out.

And the children of Joseph spake unto Joshua, saying, Why hast thou given me but one lot and one portion to inherit, seeing I am a great people, forasmuch as the Lord hath blessed me hitherto?

And Joshua answered them, If thou be a great people, then get thee up to the wood country, and cut down for thyself there in the land of the Perizzites and of the giants, if mount Ephraim be too narrow for thee.

And the children of Joseph said, The hill is not enough for us: and all the Canaanites that dwell in the land of the valley have chariots of iron, both they who are of Bethshean and her towns, and they who are of the valley of Jezreel.

And Joshua spake unto the house of Joseph, even to Ephraim and to Manasseh, saying, Thou art a great people, and hast great power: thou shalt not have one lot only:

But the mountain shall be thine; for it is a wood, and thou shalt cut it down: and the outgoings of it shall be thine: for thou shalt drive out the Canaanites, though they have iron chariots, and though they be strong.” – Joshua 17:13-18 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — October 1, 2021

Happy birthday to singer and actress Julie Andrews (born 1935.) Her name is always associated with The Sound of Music.

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Today’s guest article is a book excerpt by Don Shift, a SurvivalBlog reader. Since it has been published elsewhere, it is not eligible in the judging for the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

But first, we are announcing the winners for Round 96 of the contest.

Writing Contest Prize Winners Announced: Round 96

We’ve complete the judging for Round 96 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prize winners are:

First Prize:

Mike V., for Combating Sheep Flock Parasites Part 1, and Part 2, posted on August 14-15, 2021. His prizes will include:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  5. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  6. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  7. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

T.S., PhD, for Tree Propagation Through Air Layering – Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3, posted on September 22nd, 23rd, and 24th, 2021.  His prizes will include:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.

Third Prize:

Ozark Redneck for Processing Chickens on Our Homestead, posted on September 21, 2021. His prizes will include:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. Siege Stoves is generously donating a US-made very lightweight SIEGE® STOVE kit:
    • Titanium Gen 3 Flat-Pack Stove with titanium Cross-Members
    • Large Folding Grill
    • Pair of Side Toasters
    • Compact Fire Poker (made in Japan, and converted into a fire poker by Siege.)
    • Extra set of stainless steel universal Cross-Members. These can be used to quickly convert almost any common can into an efficient, stable, high-performance wood-burning stove. With these and the Flat-Pack stove, one is able to get two fires going in parallel, which can be very handy (boil water for coffee, cook a second dish, etc.). One can even take a can of food on a trip, open it, empty it into a pot and while that is cooking on the Flat-Pack Stove, turn the now empty can into a second stove (takes just two minutes to make the holes with the built-in hole-punch and attach the extra set of Cross-Members).
  5. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Honorable Mention Prizes:

The following 14 articles won Honorable Mention prizes. Each of these prize winners have been awarded a $50 FRN purchase credit that is good for the purchase of any antique gun at Elk Creek Company:

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Round 97 begins today and will end on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Reacting to Riots, by Don Shift

Editor’s Introductory Note: This guest post is an adaptation of an excerpt from Don Shift’s non-fiction book Suburban Defense: A cop’s guide to protecting your home and neighborhood during riots, civil war, or SHTF. It is posted with permission.

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2020 was the year of the mass riot that made its way into residential neighborhoods. We saw ad hoc groups spring up in defense, but just standing around openly carrying isn’t always going to turn the tide. Bad guys will call your bluff and suburbanites to rural defenders need to consider proper riot/crowd control techniques and equipment.

Goals of your anti-riot/anti-mob efforts

Your goals in any effort to keep riots or mobs from causing havoc in your neighborhood or on your street should be:
• Deter any acts of destruction, violence, or demonstrations in your neighborhood;
• Restrict, delay, or prevent entry to the street or neighborhood by troublemakers;
• Prevent damage to property or injury/death to your neighbors;
• Stop attacks against personal property or violence towards persons; and,
• Disperse mobs from your neighborhood to end the danger they are causing.
• It should never be to take revenge, cause harm to a group you don’t like, or for personal gain.

Crowd control measures

Crowd control (versus riot suppression) is limiting the growth of the crowd, controlling its geographical spread, and dissolving it. These three means are isolation, show of force, and dispersal. Arrests are not included as you will not be making them since you have no where to “drag” arrestees to (see dispersal). Dealing with the crowd (making the bad people go away) comes before using force (riot suppression) on violent/destructive mobs.

Isolation

Isolating a crowd will be difficult for a small team to do. The goal is to prevent new additions from joining the group to stop or slow its growth. This can be done by creating physical barriers or having a second team isolate newcomers from the main body. This can be risky for the defenders as rioters may react when boxed into a corner. If possible, leave a route for them to escape from where it is unlikely reinforcements would enter from.

Show of Force

A show of force is essentially a warning and a threat that destruction and violence will be met with force (not necessarily kinetic). Crowds may be deterred from their propensity to become rowdy if they are faced with a large number of opponents who may use force. We have seen plenty of instances (discussed elsewhere) where open carry groups have caused rioters, protesters, and looters to pass by simply by standing ready.
Place armed people at your perimeter; this is to intimidate the crowd and ideally deter them from choosing your neighborhood. Hopefully their “protest” continues by or they stand a good way off jeering at you until they are tired or bored.

However, one should never assume a show of force alone will be effective. Individual antagonists and the group itself may be willing to escalate. They may have their own ability to react violently to a use of force, which we have seen to some extent already (particularly in the Portland area). You must be prepared to back up your exhibition with actual and sufficient force to halt any resistance.

In the civilian’s case, a small number of armed defenders and limited barricades may be enough to persuade a gun-shy mob to pass by. They may not be seeking any real trouble. Others may seek undefended targets. Whatever the case, be prepared to react and do not bluff. Much of a show of force for civilians is a gamble. The fallback is not arrests and dispersal like police, it is using force or taking shelter until the attack passes. Nonetheless, in many cases involving less-aggressive groups, a show of force may be entirely effective.Continue reading“Reacting to Riots, by Don Shift”

September 2021 in Precious Metals by Steven Cochran

The following column is authored monthly, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins.

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Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover gold’s performance, and the factors that affected gold prices.

What Did Gold Do in September?

Gold was very price sensitive in September, mostly to the downside. Gold saw only muted responses to good news, and overreacted to bad news. Major headwinds included higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and a growing concern that higher inflation will last longer than central banks said it would.

Gold’s five-session streak of prices above $1,800 ended on September 7, when prices crashed $35 an ounce.

The middle of the month saw a slew of economic news come in far better than expected, sending gold down $55 in three days. This pushed prices temporarily below the important $1,775 line of support. Gold bounced between $1,775 and $1,750 for the next week.

The last few days of September saw gold attacked from all angles. Global fuel shortages sent prices of natural gas and coal to new records, forcing some factories to shut down and rolling blackouts to be instituted.

This also fanned the flames of stagflation fears, as the energy crisis meant higher consumer prices at the same time as economies slowed down. Yields on Treasury notes zoomed higher, making them a more attractive safe haven for gold, while overseas investors dumped their native currencies for dollars.
In the first 15 minutes of trading on the 28th, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped from 1.485% to 1.539%, crushing gold prices to $1,727. Gold recovered somewhat, closing at $1,734.

On the 29th, the dollar skyrocketed from 93.72 to 94.39, a 2021 high. This smashed gold down more than $14 for the second consecutive day, with spot gold ending at $1,726. Precious metals got a reprieve on the last day of the month, as bargain hunters stepped in. This helped prices rally $30 to back above $1,755/oz. Gold still closed out September with a loss of -3.2% for the month.Continue reading“September 2021 in Precious Metals by Steven Cochran”