Preparedness Notes for Monday — December 5, 2022

On December 5th, 1964, the first Medal of Honor awarded to a serviceman for action in Vietnam was presented to Captain Roger Donlon of Saugerties, New York. Captain Donlon and his Special Forces team were manning Camp Nam Dong, a mountain outpost near the borders of Laos and North Vietnam. Just before two o’clock in the morning on July 6, 1964, hordes of Viet Cong attacked the camp. He was shot in the stomach, but Donlon stuffed a handkerchief into the wound, cinched up his belt, and kept fighting. He was wounded three more times, but he continued fighting–manning a mortar, throwing grenades at the enemy, and refusing medical attention.

As you do your Hanukkah or Christmas gift shopping, please give priority to our paid banner advertisers and to the prize sponsors for our ongoing nonfiction writing contest. Please let them know that you found them through SurvivalBlog. Thanks!

Today’s feature article is a review written by Field Gear Editor Tom Christianson.


Mossberg Maverick 88 Smooth Bore Slug Gun, by Thomas Christianson

I recently tested the Mossberg Marverick 88 Deer Pump in 12 gauge. It has a 24-inch smooth bore slug barrel with adjustable rifle sights, a three inch chamber, and six shot capacity with 2.75 inch shells.

I found it to be a sturdy, reliable, and reasonably accurate option for hunting deer and other mid-to-large-sized game at slug ranges (50 yards or less). With a manufacturer-suggested retail price of only $245, it offers a highly versatile firearm at an extremely reasonable price.

The Backstory

A couple of decades ago, I was preparing for a hunt on my Uncle’s property, which bordered a state game area. My Uncle’s land was in a shotgun-only hunting zone, so I bought some slugs for my shotgun. It was a 12 gauge semiautomatic Winchester 1400 that I had received from my parents one Christmas many years before. Since the gun had always thrown shot reasonably straight while bird hunting and trap shooting, I assumed that it would throw slugs reasonably straight as well. By making that assumption, I broke a cardinal rule: always test your firearm with the ammo you plan to use before using them for something important.

Dawn several days into the hunt found me hunkered down in the woods watching a game trail about 40 yards away. I saw a good-sized doe approaching from my right along the trail. I had a doe permit, so I shouldered the shotgun, sighted roughly in the center of the doe’s chest, swung the gun gently to the left to allow for the doe’s movement, and squeezed the trigger. The doe jumped up in the air, and then started to run.

Confident that I had a solid hit, I waited a few minutes to give the doe time to lie down and bleed out. Then I walked over to the place where the doe had been walking when I fired. I was surprised to see just a small amount of blood in the new fallen snow. I had expected much more. I followed the doe’s tracks, and noticed that in the course of only about 100 yards the bleeding gradually slowed and then stopped. I continued to track her for about a mile, until I lost her trail among the tracks of a number of other deer. There was no further sign of blood after that first 100 yards or so.

I did not understand how I had just winged the doe from such a short distance. So I put up a large target, paced off 25 yards, and took a shot. The slug hit almost two feet to the left of my point of aim. Further shots gave similar results. The slugs grouped reasonably tightly, but hit consistently about two feet to the left of my point of aim. With no way to adjust the sights, I needed to look for a different slug gun.

I had inherited a Savage 220 from my Grandfather a number of years before. It was a hammerless, single-shot, break-open in 20 gauge. I picked up some 20 gauge slugs, set up a target on a creek bank, and took some shots. The slugs from the 20 gauge were nicely centered in terms of windage, but the elevation was about 6 inches low at 25 yards.

At the same time I tested my Dad’s Stevens Model 940 E. It was a hammered, single-shot, break-open in .410. It put slugs in a nice tight and well-centered group from 25 yards. But I was concerned about whether it had enough oomph to consistently and humanely put a deer down.

My biggest take away from the whole experience was a strong conviction that a slug gun should have adjustable sights. Not too long afterward, my Uncle and Aunt sold their land, and moved into a condo. I didn’t think again about hunting deer with a shotgun for about a decade.

About nine years ago, my wife and I moved into a log home in the woods. I wanted a firearm powerful enough to put down dangerously aggressive animals if necessary, but I wanted to avoid the danger of the projectile carrying a great distance like it would from a rifle. It looked like a shotgun firing slugs would be my best choice.

By that time, I had inherited my Dad’s Browning A5 Magnum in 12 gauge. I decided to look for a slug barrel for that shotgun.

After bidding on several barrels on eBay, I finally won a Hastings Paradox rifled slug barrel for the A5. That barrel is amazing. I can now easily place slugs with rifle-like accuracy out to 50 yards.

The one disadvantage of a rifled shotgun barrel is that it rules out the effective use of buckshot. The rifling typically spins the shot out toward the edges of the pattern, leaving a gaping hole in the middle.

Since I was interested in the possibility of firing both slugs and buckshot from the same barrel, I recently asked Mossberg if I could borrow a Maverick 88 smoothbore slug gun for testing and evaluation. They were kind enough to agree. Not long afterward, I was able to pick up the firearm at my FFL.

Opening the Box

I removed the barrel from the box first. I found it to be a beautifully machined piece of steel with robust-looking sights which gave the impression that they would not quickly be bumped out of zero.

Next came a pack of papers: a Mossberg sticker (“Dependable, Hardworking Firearms Since 1919″), a NSSF Firearm Safety brochure (with 10 basics of safe gun handling elaborated), an invitation to join the NRA, a brochure about safe firearm storage in the home, and the Owner’s Manual.

Then I took the barrel-less action out of the box. One feature that I quickly took note of was the cross-bolt safety at the front of the trigger assembly. This has seemed to me to be the most fitting and proper place for a safety ever since I shot a zillion BBs through my old Crossman 760 as a preteen many decades ago.

As I continued to examine the barrel-less action, I noted that the recoil pad was slightly softer than I anticipated, that the black synthetic stock was attractive by my standards, that the length of pull seemed appropriate for someone my size, and that the action shouldered nicely. The barrel and action were coated with some excess shipping oil, but were not as ridiculously oily as many firearms are straight out of the box.

A final look in the bottom of the box revealed a “Maverick by Mossberg” sticker and a lock.

My next step was to read the entire Owner’s Manual. I highly recommend carefully reading the manual of any new firearm you purchase. You may be surprised at the interesting nuggets of information that you discover.

The manual began with the usual general safety warnings that apply to all firearms. Then I began to run across some items that applied to the Maverick 88 in particular. For example, the manual notes, “Never close the action or pull trigger while barrel is removed as damage could result to the firearm”.

The manual also noted that the shotgun holds either six 2.75 inch shells or five 3 inch shells in the tube magazine and chamber combined. The shotgun is shipped with a dowel in the magazine tube to limit magazine capacity to two shells, in accordance with waterfowl hunting regulations. I removed the dowel for the purposes of my testing.

The manual included directions on how to respond to hangfire and squibs.

The directions for field stripping are more extensive than for any other shotgun that I have used in the past (more on that later). There is a good outline for function testing after reassembly as well.

The Range Session

It was a beautiful day in early spring, with temperatures in the lower 60s. The sun was shining, and a gentle breeze was blowing.

Carrying the shotgun to the range revealed that it was nice and light and easy to carry.

Ammo for testing was somewhat hard to come by. I found a decent supply of Wolf Performance Ammunition, 2 3/4 inch, 1 1/8 ounce rifled slugs.

I put a single round into the chamber and moved the slide forward. I used a Caldwell Lead Sled 3 for my testing to help absorb some of the brutal recoil that 12 gauge slugs produce while firing from a bench rest.

I put the sights on the center of the target, and fired the first shot from 25 yards. It was high and to the left. After adjusting the sights through several preliminary shots, I tried some three shot groups. They were disappointing.

I switched to Remington Slugger, 2 3/4 inch, 1-ounce rifled slugs. The improvement was dramatic, with the holes overlapping one another.

I also tried a number of shots with Winchester Super X sabot slugs. Unsurprisingly, sabot slugs did not work particularly well in a smooth bore barrel.

I tried some more groups with the Remington ammunition with continued good results, and some more groups with the Wolf ammunition with continued poor results.

So in this particular shotgun, the right ammunition can give decent results at slug ranges, while the wrong ammunition can give very unsatisfactory results.

The Lead Sled successfully absorbed most of the recoil, although my cheek started getting sore after a while from contact with the stock


After the range session, I followed the instructions from the Owner’s Manual for field stripping and cleaning the shotgun. I began by removing the barrel. I then pushed out the trigger housing pin, and slid out the trigger housing. Then I removed the cartridge interrupter and the cartridge stop, followed by the bolt slide, the bolt assembly, the elevator, and the action slide assembly. The process was much more extensive than just cleaning the bore, which would be the extent of the cleaning that I would do with many of my shotguns.

I found the internal parts to be extremely oily. I used kerosene as a solvent on each part, and then dried it with a clean patch. I then lightly lubricated each part with CLP, and reassembled the shotgun.

After remounting the barrel, I performed a function test. The shotgun functioned flawlessly.

The more extensive field stripping made me feel much more confident that I was able to adequately clean and lubricate important internal components of the shotgun. I am grateful to Mossburg for this excellent design and clear instructions.


The Maverick 88 Deer Pump in 12 gauge is a robust, versatile, and inexpensive shotgun. The smooth bore barrel obviously could not match the accuracy of a rifled barrel in throwing slugs, but with the right ammunition, it provides more than adequate accuracy at slug ranges for safely and humanely taking medium and large-sized game.

All other things being equal, I think this shotgun would have been a more versatile investment than the Hastings Paradox rifled slug barrel that I bought for my Dad’s Browning A5. But having experienced the astounding accuracy of the Hastings Paradox barrel, I am too addicted to switch to the Maverick 88. If you are not yet addicted, then I recommend the Maverick 88 as a better value and a more versatile tool.


Mossberg was kind enough to loan me a Maverick 88 Deer Pump in 12 gauge for testing and evaluation. I tried not to let their kindness influence my evaluation of the product, and believe that I have succeeded in remaining objective. Caldwell provided me with a sample of their Lead Sled 3 for testing and evaluation for an earlier article. I did not receive any other financial or other inducements to mention any vendor, product, or service in this article.

Recipe of the Week: Salmon Croquettes

The following recipe for Salmon Croquettes is from SurvivalBlog reader Mrs. Alaska.

It can be made with salmon or any other canned (or fresh) fish.

The versatile recipe below can be made completely with long-storage foods — or with fresh ingredients.  The patties or croquettes can be deep fried, pan fried, or oven baked, and served as appetizers or entrees.

  • 1 can of salmon, oysters, clams, or tuna / or about 6 oz fresh

(use the oil, too.  If the fish is canned in water, measure and use it to reconstitute the onions)

  • ¼ cup dried onions, reconstituted / or ½ of a small onion
  • 5 TBS dry egg + 5 TBS water (or fish water) + 2-3 TBS cooking oil / or 2 medium eggs
  • 2 tsp baking soda
  • 1 cup of flour OR bread crumbs OR cornmeal.  (I like a combination that totals 1 cup)
  • Add any desired fresh or dried herbs, such as finely chopped garlic, chives, cilantro, parsley, or celery, and any spices, such as cayenne or curry.
  1. Combine lightly.  (If too dry, add some oil or mayonnaise.  If too wet, add more flour or bread crumbs or corn meal)
  2. Shape into balls or patties.
  3. Chill until firm so they won’t fall apart when turned in the pan.  (The raw croquettes freeze well for cooking later)
  4. For pan fried appetizer size croquettes, I heat half an inch of oil over medium heat and then fry the food for 2 minutes per side.  For different sized patties or for deep frying or oven baking, time and temperature will vary.

Mr.s Alaska says: “This recipe makes 14 appetizer-size croquettes or 4 entrée sized patties. They can be served alone, on buns, or as a topping for a salad.  These are great with your favorite dip or sauce.  I usually offer soy sauce, salsa, and aiolis (mayonnaise like dips) flavored with garlic or lemon.”

Note: Mrs. Alaska has her own homesteading blog at:

Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? In this weekly recipe column, we place emphasis on recipes that use long term storage foods, recipes for wild game, dutch oven and slow cooker recipes, and any that use home garden produce. If you have any favorite recipes, then please send them via e-mail. Thanks!

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at some more grain crop yield and price forecasts. (See the Commodities section.)

Precious Metals:

Central banks maintain their appetite for gold.

o  o  o

Michael Ballanger: We’re at the Home Stretch.

Economy & Finance:

BofA Warns of Looming Unemployment Shock, Recommends Selling Stock Rallies.

o  o  o

America’s Insolvency Is Mandatory. (Thanks to D.S. for the link.)

o  o  o

Reader H.L. sent us this: Rail workers speak out after Biden forces unions to accept deal: ‘He turned his back’.

o  o  o

From the left-wing MSN: More Americans Leave the Workforce as Participation Rate Drops Again.

o  o  o

Michael Burry says the US economy will suffer a multiyear recession. He sees no way for authorities to end the downturn early and warns consumers will virtually exhaust their savings soon, tanking the economy.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Government is force, pure and simple. There’s no way to sugar-coat that. And because government is force, it will attract the worst elements of society – people who want to use government to avoid having to earn their living and to avoid having to persuade others to accept their ideas voluntarily.” – Harry Browne

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — December 4, 2022

December 4th is the birthday of Gregory “Pappy” Boyington, (born 1912) an AVG “Flying Tiger” volunteer pilot for the Chinese Nationalist government, WWII Marine Corps aviator, and Medal of Honor recipient. (He died January 11, 1988.) A proto-Redoubter, Pappy Boyington was born in Couer d’Alene, Idaho and was raised in Spokane, Washington.  Couer d’Alene, Idaho’s airport is named in his honor.

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Thinking Outside the Aquarium: A Different View of Government Force

Much like a fish in a small aquarium, the citizens of modern-day nations have a distorted view of the world around them, and their relative freedom. They’ve never known a space any larger than the walls of their fish tank. From their perspective, the aquarium constitutes the limits of their world, and it is the only life that they can imagine.

I’m penning this essay in SurvivalBlog to encourage my readers to take a step back and think about the very nature of government — all governments, at all levels. Of the 195 nations on Earth, all but a few of them have much the same to offer their citizenries. The inhabitants of the vast majority of nations can only conceive of life within the constraints imposed upon them by their respective governments.

In essence, governments are like organized crime gangs, that go around collecting “protection” money.  They are simply better organized, have larger and more organized force backing them up, and have a facade of legitmacy. But in the end, they are still mafia-like gangs, albeit with cops, courts, and fancy flags.Continue reading“Thinking Outside the Aquarium: A Different View of Government Force”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

And you hath he quickened, who were dead in trespasses and sins;

Wherein in time past ye walked according to the course of this world, according to the prince of the power of the air, the spirit that now worketh in the children of disobedience:

Among whom also we all had our conversation in times past in the lusts of our flesh, fulfilling the desires of the flesh and of the mind; and were by nature the children of wrath, even as others.

But God, who is rich in mercy, for his great love wherewith he loved us,

Even when we were dead in sins, hath quickened us together with Christ, (by grace ye are saved;)

And hath raised us up together, and made us sit together in heavenly places in Christ Jesus:

That in the ages to come he might shew the exceeding riches of his grace in his kindness toward us through Christ Jesus.

For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God:

Not of works, lest any man should boast.

For we are his workmanship, created in Christ Jesus unto good works, which God hath before ordained that we should walk in them.

Wherefore remember, that ye being in time past Gentiles in the flesh, who are called Uncircumcision by that which is called the Circumcision in the flesh made by hands;

That at that time ye were without Christ, being aliens from the commonwealth of Israel, and strangers from the covenants of promise, having no hope, and without God in the world:

But now in Christ Jesus ye who sometimes were far off are made nigh by the blood of Christ.

For he is our peace, who hath made both one, and hath broken down the middle wall of partition between us;

Having abolished in his flesh the enmity, even the law of commandments contained in ordinances; for to make in himself of twain one new man, so making peace;

And that he might reconcile both unto God in one body by the cross, having slain the enmity thereby:

And came and preached peace to you which were afar off, and to them that were nigh.

For through him we both have access by one Spirit unto the Father.

Now therefore ye are no more strangers and foreigners, but fellowcitizens with the saints, and of the household of God;

And are built upon the foundation of the apostles and prophets, Jesus Christ himself being the chief corner stone;

In whom all the building fitly framed together groweth unto an holy temple in the Lord:

In whom ye also are builded together for an habitation of God through the Spirit.” – Ephesians 2 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — December 3, 2022

On December 3,1775, the first official US flag (the Grand Union Flag) was raised aboard the naval vessel USS Alfred.

On December 3, 1944, the Greek Civil War broke out in a newly-liberated Greece, between communists and royalists.

We are pleased to welcome a new banner advertiser: SurvivalFrog. They sell a broad line of survival gear and storage food, at great prices. Presently, they are running some pre-Christmas specials. Take a look!

Today’s guest article first appeared in the blog. It is reposted with permission.

Why China is a Beta Test for The New World Order, by Brandon Smith

For over a decade there has been an open globalist obsession with the Chinese governmental model – A love affair, if you will. Many top proponents of global centralization including Henry Kissinger and George Soros have praised China in the past and hinted that the communist country is burgeoning into a major player within the New World Order. Soros expressed this exact sentiment way back in 2009, around the time that China began courting the IMF and issuing trillions in Yuan based treasury debt in order to join their global currency initiative.

Several years later, China was inducted into the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket. The CCP now avidly supports the creation of a new global currency system with the IMF in control.

This is a reality I have been writing about for many years: China does NOT stand in opposition to global centralization under the control of western oligarchs. All they want is a prominent seat at the table when the “Great Reset” kicks off and total centralization begins. But the above information only suggests an economic relationship between China and the globalists. Does the alliance go even further than that?Continue reading“Why China is a Beta Test for The New World Order, by Brandon Smith”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in this column, in the Odds ‘n Sods Column, and in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

We had a fairly quiet week. With about 26 inches of snow now on the ground, and more coming, I’ve had to plow snow several times. If the weather pattern this autumn is any indication, it looks like we will be in for a long, snowy winter.

I’m continuing to make progress on my workshop remodeling projects. On Thursday, I installed a staircase. Next, I plan on decking the second-story floor with 3/4-inch tongue and groove plywood. Then it will be time for the second-story wall construction, with paneling and then shelving.

I set up one of the grow lights in our guest bedroom, to keep some winter greens growing.

Avalanche Lily Reports:

Dear Readers,
This week, we had a huge snowstorm that dumped just about two feet of snow!  Beautiful! Generally, we don’t receive this much snow until the end of December.  Not at the end of November and first day of December.  It has been a lot of work with shoveling paths, stairs, and entrances to animal sheds, and plowing.

A funny horse story:  While I was using the straw broom to brush snow off our SUV, the horses were milling around me, watching me and “asking” me to give them their afternoon meal. As I finished brushing off the sides of the car and the roof sections I could reach, I paused and held the broom across my arms with the brush towards S. our dominant horse, not on purpose.  I was trying to decide if I really wanted to be done.  There was still snow on the center of the roof and I am not tall enough to reach it and I was looking at it wondering if I should climb up there? While I looked at the snow and debated in my mind.  S. grabbed the broom in her mouth and tried to eat it!  As I tried to pull it away from her we had a momentary tug o war.  I was slightly startled that she thought that it was a food source. I never thought that a broom — that I think as a tool — would look like food to the horse after she had just watched me use it as a tool to clean off the SUV.  Interesting thought process…

M. our male cat and H. our young dog have been playing together in a very cute way. M will get up on the back of a recliner and face the dog who is trying to gently mouth/bite him. He will then with a look of boredom will gently bat with his paw at the dog’s nose. They will do this over and over again to stave off winter confinement boredom. So cute.

I walked and worked-out vigorously with bands and weights three times this week.  I needed days off between these workouts to let my muscles heal.

I continue to study Isaiah in Hebrew and now am in chapter 9.

Isaiah 9:6-7:

For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace.
כִּי־יֶלֶד יֻלַּד־לָנוּ בֵּן נִתַּן־לָנוּ וַתְּהִי הַמִּשְׂרָה עַל־שִׁכְמוֹ וַיִּקְרָא שְׁמוֹ פֶּלֶא יוֹעֵץ אֵל גִּבּוֹר אֲבִי עַד שַׂר־שָׁלֽוֹם׃
Of the increase of his government and peace there shall be no end, upon the throne of David, and upon his kingdom, to order it, and to establish it with judgment and with justice from henceforth even for ever. The zeal of the LORD of hosts will perform this.
 לםרבה הַמִּשְׂרָה וּלְשָׁלוֹם אֵֽין־קֵץ עַל־כִּסֵּא דָוִד וְעַל־מַמְלַכְתּוֹ לְהָכִין אֹתָהּ וּֽלְסַעֲדָהּ בְּמִשְׁפָּט וּבִצְדָקָה מֵעַתָּה וְעַד־עוֹלָם קִנְאַת יְהוָה צְבָאוֹת תַּעֲשֶׂה־זֹּֽאת

Take the time to listen to Glenn Beck’s Dream.

May you all have a very blessed and safe week.

– Avalanche Lily, Rawles

o o o

As always,  please share and send e-mails of your own successes and hard-earned wisdom and we will post them in the “Snippets” column this coming week.  We want to hear from you.

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“For I know the thoughts that I think toward you, saith the Lord, thoughts of peace, and not of evil, to give you an expected end.
Then shall ye call upon me, and ye shall go and pray unto me, and I will hearken unto you.
And ye shall seek me, and find me, when ye shall search for me with all your heart.” – Jeremiah 29:11-13  (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — December 2, 2022

On December 2nd, 1823, what became known as the Monroe Doctrine was declared by President James Monroe to Congress outlining a foreign policy initiative that forbade European interference in the American hemisphere but also asserted U.S. neutrality in regard to future European conflicts.

Today we present a guest article by Arkadiusz Sieroń, selected by JWR. It was first published by Sunshine Profits, and is reposted with permission.

We are now seeking entries for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.


Stagflation: The Worse for Us, the Better for Gold, by Arkadiusz Sieroń

Stagflation is coming – and it could make the 1970s look like a walk in the park.

As you’ve probably noticed, I expect a recession next year, and I’m not alone, as this has become the baseline scenario for many financial institutions and analysts. Even the DSGE model used by the New York Fed shows an 80% probability of a hard landing (defined as four-quarter GDP growth dipping below -1%) over the next ten quarters. Reasons? Inflation and the Fed’s tightening cycle. The history is clear: whenever inflation has been above 5%, the Fed’s hikes in interest rates have always resulted in an economic downturn. The key yield curve has recently inverted, which means that the most reliable recessionary indicator has started to flash red light.

Although the coming recession could decrease the rate of inflation more than I assume, given the slowdown in money supply growth, I believe that high inflation (although lower compared to the current level) will continue through 2023 and perhaps also in 2024 due to the excess increase in money supply during the pandemic. It means that recession is likely to be accompanied by high inflation, forming a powerful yet negative combo, namely, stagflation.

If the calls for stagflation are correct, it suggests that the coming recession won’t be mild or short-lived, as it’s not easy to combat it. In the early 1980s, Paul Volcker had to raise the federal funds rate to above 17%, and later even 19% (see the chart below), to defeat inflation, which triggered a painful double-dip recession. During stagflation, there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy, and monetary policy becomes much more complicated, as the central bank doesn’t know whether to focus on fighting inflation, which could become entrenched, or rising unemployment. In a response to the Great Recession or the Great Lockdown, the Fed could ease its monetary policy aggressively to address declining aggregate demand and neutralize deflationary pressure. But if inflation remains high, Powell’s hands are tied.Continue reading“Stagflation: The Worse for Us, the Better for Gold, by Arkadiusz Sieroń”