Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at some more indicators of mass inflation ahead. (See the  section.)

Precious Metals:

First up, from Jim Curry: Gold Update – U.S. Stocks Bracing for Correction.

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Gold and silver prices react to this week’s events in some unexpected ways

Economy & Finance:

A bond market alert: For The First Time Ever, Real US Investment Grade Yields Turn Negative. JWR Adds: For those who aren’t familiar with the bond market, read this primer: Why Bond Prices and Yields Move in Opposite Directions

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At Seeking Alpha: BlackRock sees ‘new nominal’ accelerating as inflation expectations hit 26-month highs

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“A Huge Reversal” – Louis Gave Warns “Inflation Will Come Back With A Vengeance”. Here is a snippet from the interview:

“When I look at markets, there are three key prices in the world economy: Ten year Treasury yields, oil, and the Dollar. One year ago, yields were going down, oil was going down, and the Dollar was going up. Today, Treasury yields are going up, oil is going up, and the Dollar is going down. This is a huge reversal. When I see a market where interest rates are rising and the currency is falling, alarm bells go off.“

o  o  o

And at Wolf Street: Stunning Brick & Mortar Meltdown, Manhattan Style: The Collapse of Retail Rents Before & Now During the Pandemic

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Another from Wolf: Massive Inflation in Shipping Costs. And the Reasons

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Five Reasons Why Runaway Inflation Is Imminent According To Morgan Stanley

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And one more word of warning: Fed-Driven Bubble Destined To End Badly. JWR’s Comment:  So, with some major inflation approaching, what changes to your portfolio should you be considering? See the Economy & Finance section.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — January 17, 2021

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On Jan. 17, 1920 the 18th Amendment to the United States Constitution went into effect, establishing Prohibition. By one account, 286 distilleries, 992 breweries, and more than 300,000 bars and saloons were closed.

This is also the anniversary of the Battle of Cowpens in 1781. This small battle was the turning point of the American Revolution in the South. In it, the best battlefield tactician America produced, the backwoodsman Daniel Morgan, decisively and utterly defeated the most arrogant, bloody and successful field grade officer in the British Army, Lt. Col. Banastre Tarleton. The battle set in motion the chain of events that led directly to the decisive siege at Yorktown and the British decision to give up on the war.

On this day in 1994 the 6.7 magnitude Northridge Earthquake struck Los Angeles. It caused about $20 billion in damage and killed 61 people.

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Because we are still having some severe Internet access problems — following a huge windstorm —  I wasn’t able to edit a feature article for today’s blog. My apologies. Hopefully our local Internet Service Provider will be back to normal connectivity within a few days. But presently I can only get to our server for a few minutes at a time. Again, my apologies!

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Be ye therefore followers of God, as dear children;

And walk in love, as Christ also hath loved us, and hath given himself for us an offering and a sacrifice to God for a sweetsmelling savour.

But fornication, and all uncleanness, or covetousness, let it not be once named among you, as becometh saints;

Neither filthiness, nor foolish talking, nor jesting, which are not convenient: but rather giving of thanks.

For this ye know, that no whoremonger, nor unclean person, nor covetous man, who is an idolater, hath any inheritance in the kingdom of Christ and of God.

Let no man deceive you with vain words: for because of these things cometh the wrath of God upon the children of disobedience.

Be not ye therefore partakers with them.

For ye were sometimes darkness, but now are ye light in the Lord: walk as children of light:

(For the fruit of the Spirit is in all goodness and righteousness and truth;)

Proving what is acceptable unto the Lord.

And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather reprove them.

For it is a shame even to speak of those things which are done of them in secret.

But all things that are reproved are made manifest by the light: for whatsoever doth make manifest is light.

Wherefore he saith, Awake thou that sleepest, and arise from the dead, and Christ shall give thee light.

See then that ye walk circumspectly, not as fools, but as wise,

Redeeming the time, because the days are evil.

Wherefore be ye not unwise, but understanding what the will of the Lord is.” – Ephesians 5:1-17 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — January 16, 2021

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The Space Shuttle Columbia launched from Kennedy Space Center in Florida on January 16th, 2003. STS-107 would explode on re-entry 15 days later, killing all seven of the crew members on board. SurvivalBlog salutes all seven crewmembers: Commander Rick Husband, Pilot William McCool, Mission Specialist David Brown, Mission Specialist Kalpana Chawla, Mission Specialist Michael Anderson, Mission Specialist Laurel Clark, Payload Specialist Ilan Ramon.

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A new listing in Arizona, marketed by Survival Realty Brokerage Services: Desert Sky Ranch, $795,000, near Snowflake, Arizona.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 92 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (a $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  5. An assortment of products along with a one-hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 92 ends on January 31, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

How To Build a WTSHTF Gas Station, by Samantha B.

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Gas is often not stored safely. A vaporized single gallon of gas cause catastrophic consequences if it ignites or explodes. People often store gas in 5-gallon cans. Cans are placed in barns, outbuildings, and garages alongside valuable equipment or stored household goods. Some people even store gas in the basement of their home in cans that are not properly sealed.

Our primary reason for constructing this gas station was to have a safe place to store fuel and provide some security from short to moderate gas supply disruptions. We also wanted to avoid unnecessary trips to town just for fuel.

Where are you located on the gas supply chain?

My husband and I live in the mountains of Western North Carolina. If there is any supply disruption in oil and gas refining in the Gulf of Mexico, our area is the last place to receive fuel. A refinery accident several years ago led to gas shortages. If you are in an area that is the last to receive critical supplies like fuel, then having a small supply at home can allow you to get to work or school until supplies stabilize. We saw a lot of people that did not have the fuel they needed to conduct business. Those with longer work commutes had a tough time.

Storing just 25 extra gallons could have made a huge difference for a lot of those people.
Here is how we put together our gas station for very little out of pocket cost—many of the supplies we had laying around from previous construction projects and tasks around the farm. I encourage you to be creative when considering what materials you use. We used sheet metal for our shed, but scrap wood, pallets, and shingles would have worked just fine too!

The Pallet Platform

We had a single pallet. My husband expanded it with treated scrap lumber left over from other projects. We wanted a large enough platform for two barrels so we could have two grades of gas. Regular for our truck, Kawasaki Mule, and walk-behind tractor and ethanol-free for our weedeaters and chainsaws.

The Shed

The framework was built around the pallets. Matt used some treated boards and a few untreated to build the framework for the roof and sides. We have been working on some barns, so we have some small pieces of metal laying around. Technically we probably needed them to finish up the barns, but one side was just the cover sheet they included when they dropped off metal. Of course, the cover sheet is a different color, but who cares. The metal is the thicker gauge normally used for the sides of industrial buildings, so the whole structure should be pretty durable over the years. The first thing that will fail is likely the pallets and lumber that the barrels are setting on. Pouring a little concrete pad and then using some lumber for air space between the barrels and the concrete would prevent that, but we just used what we had.Continue reading“How To Build a WTSHTF Gas Station, by Samantha B.”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

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To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year. Note that as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in the Comments. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

This past week I’ve been very busy shipping out Elk Creek Company orders. Folks seem very anxious to stock-up on pre-1899 guns before the presidential inauguration.  My travels around the region revealed an absolutely pitiful supply of ammunition. I visited both gun shops and a few major retailers. But all that I’ve been seeing is just a few boxes of ammo in oddball calibers.  Otherwise, the shelves are bare. The new T-shirt from Prepper Tees (our newest advertiser) says it all:

 

 

 

 

Earlier this week, we had a wild drive to Coeur d’Alene at the tail end of a wind storm.  But I’ll let Lily describe that…

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Behold, the Lord maketh the earth empty, and maketh it waste, and turneth it upside down, and scattereth abroad the inhabitants thereof.

And it shall be, as with the people, so with the priest; as with the servant, so with his master; as with the maid, so with her mistress; as with the buyer, so with the seller; as with the lender, so with the borrower; as with the taker of usury, so with the giver of usury to him.

The land shall be utterly emptied, and utterly spoiled: for the Lord hath spoken this word.

The earth mourneth and fadeth away, the world languisheth and fadeth away, the haughty people of the earth do languish.

The earth also is defiled under the inhabitants thereof; because they have transgressed the laws, changed the ordinance, broken the everlasting covenant.

Therefore hath the curse devoured the earth, and they that dwell therein are desolate: therefore the inhabitants of the earth are burned, and few men left.

The new wine mourneth, the vine languisheth, all the merryhearted do sigh.

The mirth of tabrets ceaseth, the noise of them that rejoice endeth, the joy of the harp ceaseth.

They shall not drink wine with a song; strong drink shall be bitter to them that drink it.

The city of confusion is broken down: every house is shut up, that no man may come in.

There is a crying for wine in the streets; all joy is darkened, the mirth of the land is gone.

In the city is left desolation, and the gate is smitten with destruction.

When thus it shall be in the midst of the land among the people, there shall be as the shaking of an olive tree, and as the gleaning grapes when the vintage is done.

They shall lift up their voice, they shall sing for the majesty of the Lord, they shall cry aloud from the sea.

Wherefore glorify ye the Lord in the fires, even the name of the Lord God of Israel in the isles of the sea.

From the uttermost part of the earth have we heard songs, even glory to the righteous. But I said, My leanness, my leanness, woe unto me! the treacherous dealers have dealt treacherously; yea, the treacherous dealers have dealt very treacherously.

Fear, and the pit, and the snare, are upon thee, O inhabitant of the earth.

And it shall come to pass, that he who fleeth from the noise of the fear shall fall into the pit; and he that cometh up out of the midst of the pit shall be taken in the snare: for the windows from on high are open, and the foundations of the earth do shake.

The earth is utterly broken down, the earth is clean dissolved, the earth is moved exceedingly.

The earth shall reel to and fro like a drunkard, and shall be removed like a cottage; and the transgression thereof shall be heavy upon it; and it shall fall, and not rise again.

And it shall come to pass in that day, that the Lord shall punish the host of the high ones that are on high, and the kings of the earth upon the earth.

And they shall be gathered together, as prisoners are gathered in the pit, and shall be shut up in the prison, and after many days shall they be visited.

Then the moon shall be confounded, and the sun ashamed, when the Lord of hosts shall reign in mount Zion, and in Jerusalem, and before his ancients gloriously.” – Isaiah 24 (KJV)

Censorship: The Storm Is Here

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You’ve probably seen the 1984 movie The Terminator, and recall the closing denounment sequence, where Sarah Connor is driving her Jeep through Mexico. She stops to buy gas, and a Mexican boy warns her: “Mira, la tormenta.” (“Look, there is a storm.”) Her quiet lamenting reply was: “I know.”

Here in the Inland northwest, we just suffered a large windstorm event, with tens of thousands of trees toppled or snapped off by wind gusts. The grid power will probably be out for days for a good portion of the population. But we are muddling through, just as we always have. We just fired up our chainsaws and cleared the roads. The men from the local power co-op will soon have the lines back up, and life will get back to normal.

But meanwhile, 2,700 miles to our east, there is another storm — even larger –that is blowing, and it is showing no signs of stopping. This is a political maelstrom. They are calling it The Purge. It is actually just the latest in a series of purges promulgated by the Tech Giants. These date back to the purging of Alex Jones from Apple, YouTube, Spotify, and Facebook, in the summer of 2018. But Jones was just the test case. But now they’ve taken their gloves off. They’ve just recently suspended or deleted the Facebook and Twitter accounts of more than 70,000 people, in an attempt to censor them. Some of those accounts were held by the sitting president and key members of his cabinet. Former congressman Dr. Ron Paul had his account suspended. Internet discussion forums have been deleted. The Parler (spoken “parlay”) social media platform was de-platformed by the combined efforts Google, Apple, Amazon Web Services, and Facebook, cutting Parler off from its servers and downloads for its user application (“app”). It was widely reported that the Parler app was removed from both Google and Apple’s app stores. And contemporaneously, a large number of web sites, blogs, vlogs, and discussion forums have been shut down. Florida Republican Representative Matt Gaetz posted the alarm: “Big tech tyranny is playing out before our very eyes.”Continue reading“Censorship: The Storm Is Here”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at silver investing. (See the Precious Metals section.)

Precious Metals:

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Get Hammered Again

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Silver price analysis in January 2021: buy the recent weakness? A snippet:

“Silver ended 2020 near the $27 an ounce level and this implies it was trading at its highest levels since September.

The bullish case for silver in January 2021 and beyond is based on the assumption that the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine will proceed without any major setbacks. If successful, the global economy will rid itself of the virus that served as the most noteworthy headwind in many decades.”

Economy & Finance:

At Wolf Street: After 17 Years of Falling Ticket Sales, Movie Theaters Got Annihilated in 2020

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“A Huge Reversal” – Louis Gave Warns “Inflation Will Come Back With A Vengeance”

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And, thanks to reader Chris M., some “Don’t call it inflation” news, over at ForeverStampPrice.com: The Jan. 24, 2021 USPS Rate changes:

–          One Ounce Forever Stamp remains $0.55

–          Additional Ounce Forever Stamps: significant increase from $0.15 to $0.20

–          Two Ounce Forever Stamps: significant increase from $0.70 to $0.80

–          Three Ounce Forever Stamps: significant increase from $0.85 to $1.00

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind. Were an opinion a personal possession of no value except to the owner; if to be obstructed in the enjoyment of it were simply a private injury, it would make some difference whether the injury was inflicted only on a few persons or on many. But the peculiar evil of silencing the expression of an opinion is, that it is robbing the human race; posterity as well as the existing generation; those who dissent from the opinion, still more than those who hold it. If the opinion is right, they are deprived of the opportunity of exchanging error for truth: if wrong, they lose, what is almost as great a benefit, the clearer perception and livelier impression of truth, produced by its collision with error.” – John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — January 14, 2021

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On January 14th, 1784, the Continental Congress ratified the Second Treaty of Paris, ending the War for Independence. In the document, which was known as the Second Treaty of Paris because the Treaty of Paris was also the name of the agreement that had ended the Seven Years’ War in 1763, Britain officially agreed to recognize the independence of its 13 former colonies as the new United States of America.

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Because of a huge windstorm in the Inland Northwest, our local ISP went down on Wednesday.  I had to drive almost 50 miles to get an Internet connection to put up today’s posts. Our connectivity may be spotty for the next few days. So you may see some regular posts are missing or going up late. My apologies!  – JWR

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 92 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (a $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  5. An assortment of products along with a one-hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 92 ends on January 31, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Constructing My Culvert Cooker – Part 2, by J.P.

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(Continued from Part 1. This concludes the article.)

Start Cooking!

Stage III. Build the deck (Two Days)

Since adding a deck to your outdoor kitchen is optional I offer no plan or directives for you to follow. Again there are expert builders – even average builders – who are capable of producing a fine deck for these purposes. Likewise big box stores and most book dealers are a source of good plans for your deck. Here a few things for you to consider:
* Craigslist and other on-line postings are likely to turn up trex and other similar used materials that will last a long time.
* Consider building your deck floor in 2’ wide removable panels that will allow you access to spaces where you may want to install plumbing, hide your nickels etc.
* Keep in mind floor height in relationship to height of culvert cooker surface. This relationship may be a calculation you want to make in the early stages of laying out the base for the cooker, elevation of ground prep, etc.

Stage IV. Build the Pavilion Roof (Three Days)

Although you can always come back and build this later I encourage you to work it into the original construction plan. Having the roof in inclement weather will greatly increase the value of the outdoor kitchen; I would say by as much as 40%. Not only will it allow you to dodge raindrops, consider the importance of getting out of the sun, maybe more than you may think. Here are more specifics to consider:
* 7’ is a good height for the top of your 4”x4” timber-framed walls. Allows for plenty of airflow to dissipate smoke from the cooker.
* A 16” overhang of the eves is good for rain and sun protection. Two feet is better.
* Leave a 16” or 18” wide by 30” – 36” long opening at the midpoint of the roof ridgeline, to allow the escape of smoke from the fire. Shield this opening from the rain with a cupola roof that is supported by 4 sturdy posts, and which overhangs all sides of the vent hole by 6”. A steady wind or breeze will blow the smoke out the high ends of the pavilion, and no wind at all will let smoke escape through the cupola.
* I highly recommend metal roofing.
If you can afford it your entire roof project will be enhanced by an underlayment of ¼” or ½” plywood.
* If you are going without plywood underlayment, then consider lining the underneath of the roof with rolled ½” foil back bubble insulation to buffer the sound during heavy rain.
* Wind bracing. Give serious consideration to your roof’s vulnerability to the wind. A roof, without enclosed walls and a well-rooted foundation, can be picked up, in a moment, and be completely turned over and destroyed. An important part of the structural stability must come from extensive angle bracing between horizontal and vertical frame members.
* Sink vertical posts into the ground and/or incorporate cable anchors to each vertical post to resist strong winds. Because of mountainous terrain our cabin compound is vulnerable to regular winter winds of 40 to 60 mph during any winter. Depending on your location my recommendation – OVERKILL!Continue reading“Constructing My Culvert Cooker – Part 2, by J.P.”