JWR’s Firearms Market Trend Predictions for 2020 to 2025

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I was recently asked by a consulting client about my predictions for the U.S. retail gun market for the remainder of 2020 and next few years. In this article I’ll summarize my responses:

  • Panic buying will continue through August, or possibly longer. News of a large scale “camping” exodus from big cities, home invasions, campsite robberies, garden thievery, livestock rustling, and roadblock confrontations will raise gun buying to a fever pitch, even in small towns.
  • Once the urban gun shops have sold out, then buyers will travel further out into the suburbs and even small towns, and wipe out those inventories. Low gas prices will facilitate this.
  • We will continue to see severe shortages of most modern military caliber ammunition–most notably 9mm and 5.56mm.
  • The strong demand and higher prices for centerfire ammo will spill over to rimfire ammo buying–as people will want to shift to inexpensive training ammo. So we may experience another multi-year .22 rimfire ammo drought.
  • Prices will be strong across the board until at least August. For now, it will be a lucrative Seller’s Market–especially for private party guns.
  • First-time gun buyers will be so desperate that they will be buying even commemorative Winchester lever actions for use as practical self-defense guns. Some people will also buy bird-hunting shotguns and do Bubba hacksaw or tubing cutter jobs to turn them into combat shotguns. (Desperate times call for desperate measures.)
  • To get around state restrictions, there will be renewed interest in pre-1899 cartridge guns — but not in muzzleloaders. Many of those buying replica cap & ball revolvers will be doing so with the intention of doing cartridge cylinder conversions.
  • After the COVID crisis dies down — probably in October or November of 2020, a lot of “first-timers” will have buyer’s remorse, and sell guns back to gun shops. They will of course take big losses. Since many of these folks know little about either legalities or market fundamentals, they will assume that they can only  sell guns to FFL holders–even in states where private party sales are perfectly legal. If you live in one of those free states, then it will be a good time to post “want to buy” classified ads.
  • The glut of returned guns–many of which will be “like new in box” (LNIB) and perhaps even unfired and “new in box” (NIB) — will drive down prices. This will profoundly be a Buyer’s Market.
  • Adding to this oversupply, the heirs of elderly people who succumbed to the COVID-19 virus will begin to flood the market with a lot of nice old classic guns. Have plenty of cash on hand to buy these “Grandpa’s old guns.”  You might end up buying a few $300 M1 Carbines, M1 Garands, or pre-’64  Winchester Model 70s.
  • The Buyer’s Market will persist through 2021, UNLESS a Democrat wins the presidency. A dem in the White House hcould flip things back to a Seller’s Market, much like we saw when President BHO was elected.
  • The nascent recession may turn into a depression. As the crime rate rises, a lot of people will be looking to trade high grade sporting guns (such as a over & under shotguns) for practical and tactical guns. If, at that point, you are sitting on a pile of M4geries and full-capacity 9mm pistols, then you will be able to trade very advantageously.
  • A high crime rate will inspire more people to get CCW permits (or to carry without one in Constitutional Carry states), to defend their lives and property.  This will create a disproportionate market demand for  compact, concealable self-defense handguns. (I believe that Daily Carry pistols in the size range of Glock 19/M&P Shield/Glock 43 will be the most sought-after, at least by the more knowledgeable buyers.  So I suggest that you stack them deep, when the COVID buying panic ends, but before the Depression Seller’s Market begins.)
  • The higher crime rates will inspire may people to carry daily. This will drive demand for guns in stainless steel or with rust-resistant finishes (Melonite/Tenifer/Cerakote.) Glock’s uses Tenifer as their standard  finish.
  • Over the course of the next five years, many Blue States and Purple States will enact Universal Background Check laws–banning private party sales of modern (post-1898) guns. This paperwork requirement will make pre-1899 guns more appealing to both collectors and practical shooters. I can foresee pre-1899 prices rising, even in the midst of a Buyers Market, for modern guns.
  • If President DJT is re-elected, he will continue to appoint pro-RKBA Federal judges and Supreme Court justices. There may be a delay of several years, but eventually there will be some landmark decisions, affirming our gun rights. Many unconstitutional gun laws wil be overturned.
  • Strong memories of the pandemic in crowded cities will spur interest in relocation to “wide open spaces”, by those who can telecommute for their work. Thus, if there is some “backfill” in the lightly-populated Plains states, then there will be a stronger interest in scoped long-range precision rifles–both both action and semi-auto.
  • A spread in prices will develop between papered and un-papered guns. In states that enact Universal Background Checks, a large black market in sans papiere guns will emerge.  These won’t be stolen guns, but rather just untraceable and deniable guns. (By deniable, I mean older guns where people can say: “It’s been in our family for years.”) And of course the burden of proof on the date of acquisition is on the Prosecutor.)  Just as with pre-1899 guns, people will be willing to pay more, for privacy.
  • Democrats will continue to push for more civilian disarmament legislation. But increasingly, they will be stymied by DJT-appointed judges. I’ve concluded that it is almost inevitable that here will be a resounding Supreme court ruling  that invalidates any state and local laws that restrict semi-auto militia rifles and full capacity magazines. But, again, that may not come for several years.
  • The “feast or famine” market swings in the gun market will continue for the next five years. Some debt-laden major manufacturers may go bankrupt. The gun makers and gun sellers that are the most flexible, lean on overhead, and innovative will be the ones that survive and thrive.

Note that thee foregoing are just my own subjective predictions. Your local circumstances may vary. – JWR

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

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This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, we focus on some Grant County, Oregon residents concerned about the threat of a Mad Max environment. (See the Eastern Oregon section.)

Region-Wide

All five Redoubt States are now under stay-at-home orders. It is a bit eerie.  Even though the Redoubt region has only been lightly affected by the pandemic, bars are closed, restaurants are either closed or operating take-out only, some banks have their lobbies closed (drive-up teller service only), and most in-person church gatherings have stopped. I should also mention that locally, I’ve noticed that the drivers of vehicles with Washington license plates are now viewed with great suspicion.

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When looking at the maps of coronavirus infections, you will undoubtedly notice the American Redoubt region coincides with a very low number of cases. Much of this is attributable to the low population density of the region.  And in the long run I believe that both the infection rate and case fatality rate rate in the Redoubt will continue to be relatively low. Many times in interviews over the years, I’ve said: “Fewer people means fewer problems.” That is true for a lot of different threats. A viral outbreak spread by casual contact is just one example.

Idaho

Governor Little issues statewide stay-home order, signs extreme emergency declaration

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At KHQ: Idaho Gov. Little discusses upcoming COVID-19 response measures ahead of Wednesday’s press conference

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Idaho Secretary of State asks Governor to delay May primary

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“We are now entering a new era of forced frugality in which incomes and net worth stagnate or decline while the cost of living rises and borrowing is no longer frictionless.

To say that these changes will shock the system is putting it mildly. Here’s the key dynamic in forced frugality: income can drop precipitously without any ratcheting to slow the decline, but costs only ratchet higher, or decline by nearly imperceptible degrees; that is, costs are “sticky” and refuse to slide down as easily as income.
The second key dynamic in forced frugality is the tightening of lending and the rising cost of borrowed money. When lenders could assume that almost every household’s income would increase as a byproduct of ceaseless economic expansion, and assets such as stocks, bonds and houses would always increase in value (any spots of bother are temporary), then the odds of a nasty default (in which the borrower stiffs the lender–no monthly payments to you, Bucko)–were low.
But once incomes and asset valuations are more likely to fall than rise, the door to lending slams shut. Why would lenders extend loans to households and enterprises that are practically guaranteed to default? Any lender that self-destructive would soon be stripped of their capital and solvency.” – Charles Hugh Smith

Preparedness Notes for Monday — March 30, 2020

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On March 30, 1981, President Ronald Reagan was shot and seriously injured outside a Washington, D.C. hotel by John W. Hinckley Jr. Also wounded were White House news secretary James Brady, a Secret Service agent, and District of Columbia police officer Thomas K. Delahanty. Known for his quips and unaware of the injury to others at the scene, President Reagan walked into the hospital, despite his wound, and was heard telling his wife, “Honey, I forgot to duck.”

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Today we present another product review by our Field Gear Editor. But first, a crass commercial announcement.

Elk Creek’s Pre-Hunker Down Sale — Our Hiatus Begins Soon

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We are getting ready to lock our gate and hunker down at the Rawles Ranch. To minimize our number of trips into town to mail out antique gun orders, I’ve decided to run a special sale for just the next 48 hours. I’ve reduced prices on most of my guninventory. Following this sale I will temporarily cease taking any orders – for at least two weeks and possibly until the end of June. This sale ends at midnight, Pacific Time on Tuesday, March 31st. So get your Elk Creek Company order in soon!

Note that I still have about 80 nice hand-picked pre-1899 cartridge guns in inventory. Nearly all of these are nice shootable antiques, chambered in cartridges that are still factory made by a variety of manufacturers.  The antique gun prices range from $200 and up.

So that I won’t have to go pick up mail nor wait for check clearance, I must insist that all orders for this two day sale be paid by credit card. Thanks!

I always include bonuses with every order. These bonuses vary, but might include any of the following:

  • A gun case, sling, butt pad, or holster.
  • A waterproof SurvivalBlog archive 16GB USB stick. (Now out of production.)
  • An autographed copy of one of the books that I authored.
  • Some ammunition (only for orders shipped via UPS or FedEx.)
  • A spare part for the gun that you ordered.
  • An accessory for the gun that you ordered.
  • A reprint of a reference article on the gun that you ordered.
  • An original 1890s publication.
  • Gun or scope cleaning supplies.
  • The no-longer-produced and now hoarded NECCO wafer candies.

Again I won’t accept any orders after midnight Tuesday, so get your Elk Creek Company order in soon!

S&W Model 5904, by Pat Cascio

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Many of our readers are requesting more articles on all-metal handguns, and its getting a bit harder to do these, as most semi-auto handguns today usually have a polymer frame. So, I had to dig down and find a nice representation of an all-metal gun – this doesn’t mean a gun with a steel frame, but one manufactured out of metal – in this case – the frame is manufactured out of Aluminum alloy – the S&W Model 5904.

I was introduced to the S&W Model 59 while working as the assistant security manager of a large department store, in a place called Matteson, Illinois. I was carrying some kind of .357 Magnum snubby revolver most of the time. I stopped one night, before going home, to visit a police officer out side the store, and there on his dash was a new Model 59, a 14-shot 9mm semi-auto handgun. I liked it – a lot, and eventually picked-up one for my own use. At some point, this police officer, Mike C. became chief of police of that growing little town.  And as I recall, one of the first “saves” wearing a Second Chance soft body armor, while on patrol.

S and W Model 5904 MagazinesOver the years, the Model 59 progressed, with newer and better models like the various 59-2, 59-3 and other models, until S&W introduced an all-new version of this gun, called the 5904 – it was a much better handgun than the original versions. It now came with a 15-shot magazine and fed more reliably, too – the original 14-round magazines had weak springs, and the guns often failed to get that next round in the magazine up there fast enough for the slide to pick it up. It also came with either fixed sights or adjustable sights. The fixed sights were much better than those on the original, which were often loose in the slide. The adjustable-sight version – the sights were really great, but much too large, in my humble opinion. The grip panels – it was now a single wrap-arond grip that simply slid into place, instead of having two grip panels – really a great improvement. The trigger pull was much better than the previous models of the Model 59, as well. We also had an ambidextrous decocking lever on the slide, too.Continue reading“S&W Model 5904, by Pat Cascio”

Recipe of the Week: Dan’s Salty-Sweet Trail Mix

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Reader Dan H.. kindly sent us Salty-Sweet Trail Mix recipe. Dan says: “This recipe can be doubled. If you have kids in your house, then you should definitely double it–or you won’t have any left to eat while out on the trail. <grin>.”

Ingredients
  • 1/2 cup raw cashews
  • 1/2 cup raw almonds
  • 1/2 cup raw (shelled) pumpkin seeds
  • 1/2 cup coconut flakes (rather than regular baking shredded coconut.)
  • 2 tsp ghee, melted
  • 2 TBS  maple syrup
  • Salt, to taste. (Go easy on the salt, if the cashews, almonds, or pumpkin seeds you use are salted.)
Directions
  1. Preheat oven to 350F.
  2. Line a rimmed baking sheet with parchment paper.
  3. Pour the nuts, seeds, and coconut into the parchment-lined baking sheet.
  4. Give them a quick initial mix.
  5. Melt the ghee in a mall saucepan.
  6. Pour the melted ghee and maple syrup over the nuts, pumpkin, and coconut.
  7. Mix the ingredients.
  8. Sprinkle with salt, and mix again. If you’d like to add more salt, you can do this after the trail mix roasts.
  9. Roast the trail mix in the oven for about 15-17 minutes, stirring half-way through to prevent the ingredients from burning. Keep a close eye on it, as baking times may vary, depending on your oven, the baking sheet, and whether or not you double the recipe. The cooking is done once the nuts, pumpkin seeds, and coconut have turned golden brown.
  10. Remove the baking sheet from the oven. Let the trail mix to cool while it is still on the sheet.
  11. Once fully cool, then add sweet add-ons that might melt.
Optional Sweet Add-Ons

Dan says: “You can add up to about 1-1/2 cups of any of your personal trail mix sweet favorite fruits (such as raisins chopped dried apricots) or other sweets to this. Personally, I like add three: 1/2 cup of raisins, 1/2 cup of M&Ms, and 1/2 cup of chocolate chips. But of course if you include any sweets that will melt, then you need to wait until the trail mix has completely cooled–or better yet, chilled in your refrigerator.”

STORAGE

Store in an air-tight container, at room temperature, or refrigerated. Because of the ghee, the room temperatire shelf life is only about two weeks.  It can also be stored frozen, if you leave out any chocolate ingredients. (Those can be added, just before use.)

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Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? In this weekly recipe column we place emphasis on recipes that use long term storage foods, recipes for wild game, dutch oven and slow cooker recipes, and any that use home garden produce. If you have any favorite recipes, then please send them via e-mail. Thanks!

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the uncertain future of private cryptocurrencies. (See the Cryptos section.)

Precious Metals:

2020 Gold Price Forecast And Gold Thesis

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Gold Gains 8% and Silver 18% In Week As Fed Balance Sheet Tops $5 Trillion

Economy & Finance:

All T-Bills Up To 3 Months Now Have Negative Yields

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The Great Dollar Shortage

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At Wolf Street: The Downgrade Massacre Has Started

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Five Economists Who Say This Recession Will Be the Next Great Depression

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A Word About the Horrid Spike in Unemployment Claims and Why it’s Even More Horrid Than it Appears

Commodities:

‘Can’t Even Give It Away’: Gasoline at $1 Is Warning for Economy. Here is a snippet from the article:

“London, Kentucky, became the first U.S. city to see pump prices fall below $1 a gallon as coronavirus-related lockdowns halt transit across the country — and it won’t be the last.

Several others are poised to join the club in the coming days as the pandemic crushes fuel demand and sends the economy to the brink of a recession. While cheap fuel usually spurs gas-guzzling Americans to hit the highways, the latest downturn in prices portends dark times ahead.”

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OilPrice News reports: Canadian Drillers Face Nightmare Scenario As Oil Crashes To $5

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WTI Tumbles To $21 Handle After Saudis Crush Hopes Of Russia Detente

Taxes & Public Debt:

At Zero Hedge: Senate Releases Full Text Of $2 Trillion Stimulus Bill: Here’s What’s In It

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Poynter Institute: Where does the government get $2 trillion for a coronavirus bailout? Here is a quote:

“It was only a couple of weeks ago that the Congressional Budget Office issued its newest projections that said debt will reach 98% of gross domestic product by 2030. On our current course, the CBO said, debt will grow by $13.8 trillion — from $17.5 trillion today to $31.3 trillion — by 2030.

All of this to say: Journalists, when you report on the bailout, don’t just toss around numbers like $2 trillion like that money is growing on trees. Ask how we are thinking about repayment. We are heading into an election where candidates will have to speak to this issue more urgently. Everybody wants relief from whatever is upon us and relief is not free.”

o  o  o

Update on Federal and State Tax Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic.  JWR’s Comment:  Of course there has not yet been any mention about how the huge expenditures will affect tax rates in 2021 and beyond…

Cryptos:

Over at Dollar Vigilante: Planned-Demic 2020: War on Cash Goes Into Overdrive, New US Digital Currency Added to Coronavirus Bill

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Ethereum Is In Downtrend But This Variable Can Trigger A New Rally

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Despite 10% Crash, Bitcoin Price Still Has This Key Silver Lining

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When I last checked, the cost of one Bitcoin (1 BTC) in USD was back down to $6,101.I still do not recommend putting more than 5% of your discretionary investing funds into cryptos. – JWR

Tangibles Investing:

Tomorrow (Tuesday, March 31, 2020) see the feature-length article that I authored on firearms market trends.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“These are your choices. They always were and they always will be.

Prepare when no one else is preparing.
Panic when everyone else is panicking.

Got food? Ammo? Meds? It’s too late now to prepare adequately for the pandemic much less the impending derailment of civilization itself. Preppers were calmly topping off their stashes in early January, at regular prices, in any quantity with lots-o’-choices. They saw the foreshadow of this emergency and acted appropriately. Prepping always looks crazy until the rug gets pulled. Paranoia is a survival tool, panic is not.

Systems are visibly collapsing. The stock market is out-crashing the 1929 debacle in both speed and depth. “No Admittance” signs are posted at hospitals and needed surgeries are being cancelled. Police aren’t responding to anything less than a murder in progress. Cities are opening the prison doors and chasing off the inmates. Food wholesalers were cleaned out in a fortnight and many can’t restock enough to matter. Others have stopped answering their phones.

Guns and ammo are selling at a record rate. Dealers say even anti-gun leftists are buying ’em. No one will say it, but it won’t take much scarcity for the perpetual EBT Diversity to go where the food and supplies are. It’s just there they’ll meet real resistance for the first time in their lives. The suburbs have learned their family freezers are worth more than social posing. Unlike the stock market, price discovery will be utterly reliable when it comes to fried chicken and a six pack.”  – Ol’ Remus, in his Yer ol’ Woodpile Report weekly blog

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — March 29, 2020

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Today is the 101st birthday of William “Bill” Summers Anderson. The following is from his biography at the Infogalactic wiki:

“He was born March 29, 1919, in Hankow, China. On December 8, 1941, the day after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, Hong Kong was also attacked by the Japanese. As a member of the Hong Kong Volunteer Defence Corps (HKVDC), Anderson fought the Japanese but after 17 days of heavy fighting, Hong Kong surrendered.

On Christmas Day 1941, exactly four years after he had escaped from the Japanese in China, he became a Prisoner of War (POW) and lost his second home. For the first two years, he was in a prison camp in Hong Kong before being moved to Nagoya, Japan as part of a group of 400, to work in a railway locomotive factory. Here the work was very hard; inmates worked 13 days out of 14 and were beaten on occasion. Towards the end of 1944, Japan was being bombed regularly. In May 1945, a large air raid over Nagoya knocked out the factory and the POWs were sent across the country to Toyama on the west coast to work at a branch of the locomotive factory. Toyama was almost totally destroyed in a fire bomb raid on August 1, 1945, after which the POWs were confined to barracks until the Japanese surrender on August 15, 1945.

He was evacuated from Japan to the Philippines and as a British citizen, sent to England after two weeks of recovery in Canada. After the war, he became chairman of NCR Corporation.”

In 1983, just before he retired, Anderson was reportedly America’s highest-paid business executive with a compensation of $13,299.000.

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Todd Savage of Black Rifle Real Estate wrote me to mention that he has one of those “motivated seller” situations, in northwestern Montana:

“This property offers two sources of \water (1,200 ft of Stream frontage & Water Well), two sources of power ($100,000 new 15kw Iron Edison Solar and a Generator,  and a VERY Defensible location. Almost two miles up a county maintained (in winter) Forest Service Road, the home is located across a bridge over a deep stream and is secluded from the road. Possible Hydro-power! Grow your own food, hunt, fish and live free! 2,688 square foot Caribou Log Creek Home with 3 bedrooms  (1 non-conforming) and 2 baths. Beautiful Kitchen. Also available for rent for $10,000 a month with three month minimum. The address is: 1776 Five Mile Road, Libby, Montana. Call Todd Savage @ 1-888-556-NATO

He also mentioned that this cabin has a large custom gun safe that cost $5,000.
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Today’s feature article was a bit too short for consideration in the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Oh, by the way, if you are feeling cooped up and bored in self-isolation at home, take advantage of the extra time on your hands, and you’ll be in the running to win nearly $10,000 worth of prizes.  Remember: Round 87 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing for Round 88 and e-mail us your entry. There is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Virus Protection Basics, by H.L.T.

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The Corona/China/Covid19 virus is a reality. What the concern here is the correct response to the actual threat the virus deserves. Some consider this ridiculous, some consider this the end of the world and some just don’t know. Our responses are based on what information we decide to enter our mix to formulate our opinion.   Watching Fox News this morning the opening of the show reminded me of a B movie that I decided was not worth watching.   Fear is leading everything and that is a bad leader.   Should this be an overblown reaction I hope people promoting this are held responsible and our fear is unfounded. If this is truly a major threat we do have to do our duty and do whatever it is we can. Remember this entire crisis is about other people and our reactions toward them. Can we take care of ourselves and others? Yes we can.

I’m a laboratory director who has worked for over 20 years to decrease fear and panic of environmental concerns unless they should be truly a significant risk. I will begin by saying that most of the fear and panic is media generated with manipulation of fear to drive behavior.  A response to fear can be real enough to cause greater damage than what you are fearful of. When the news agencies raise concerns there is a need to process what they have said and I hope to instill reason and understanding on how to properly respond.

Since most of what you have heard is hearsay or second-hand knowledge at best coming from lawyers or news folks, you must hold that against what you know is true. I do not believe in conspiracy theories, I know people are doing things, so I call them speculation theories. We are all trying to figure out what they are doing and why. Approaching this from a scientific frame of mind, and knowing only a few things to be true, how do we come up with a solid plan? A plan to put each one of us in a strong position to weather through all the nonsense while taking care of what absolutely is necessary should something really be happening.Continue reading“Virus Protection Basics, by H.L.T.”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.

And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see.

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.” – Revelation 6: 5-8 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — March 28, 2020

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On this day in 845, a 5,000-man strong fleet of Danish Vikings invaded Frankish lands. They only retreated after besieging Paris and securing a ransom from the Frankish King Charles the Bald. This was part of a series of devastating raids begun by the Vikings in the 790s.

The Vikings were led by a man named “Reginherus” or Ragnar, sometimes linked to the legendary saga figure Ragnar Lodbrok. The Vikings easily overcame defenses set in place by Charlemagne and are known to have attacked the Abbey of Saint-Germain-des-Prés just outside the city. Although struck by an outbreak of plague, the Vikings overcame this to return home with their ransom of 7,000 French livres of gold and silver.

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Column Re-Scheduling Note: Because of the urgency of some news items, I decided to post the Odds ‘n Sods column on Saturday, instead of Sunday, this week. Please be sure to scroll down and read that column!

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Today we present an article by one of our most frequent contributors. Because it uses quotes extensively, it was submitted to be part of the judging for Round 87 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

Round 87 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Human Brain Directly Attacked by COVID-19, by ShepherdFarmerGeek

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I ran across this report while doing some COVID-19 research online. If I’m understanding it correctly this is a major insight into how the virus attacks humans, especially in the more serious cases. And it’s implications may give us a useful strategy to attempt to combat it.

Here’s the original research article, published February 27, 2020.

If I may, let me try to put the article’s main findings (below in italics) into everyday English:

Here’s The Problem

The COVID-19 virus can infect a person through any mucous membranes – the mouth, eyes and nose. Infections via the mouth are typically from touching contaminated surfaces or objects (foamites) and the viruses are subsequently transferred to the mouth or eyes. Having virus-laden saliva particles drift into a person’s eyes is a second way infections happen and is why the best protective strategy includes non-vented goggles.

Of course the major route of infection is by breathing virus-laden particles into the lungs where they have a particular affinity (as well as the intestines). And people typically breathe through their noses most of the time. Doctors and researchers have now discovered that COVID-19 viruses can travel from the nose [and even the lower respiratory airways] to the brain stem where they infect the Central Nervous System (CNS).

There, the viruses attack the body’s normal ability to breathe spontaneously (without conscious effort). This is especially a problem when the person tries to sleep, but conscious effort is required to continue breathing. Hence the heavy use of mechanical respirators. Persons whose infection primarily started via breathing and nasal inhalation would be expected to experience respiratory crises more often / more seriously than persons infected via the fecal-oral or eye route.

Will nasal washing help?

Given this issue, washing the viruses out of the nose and throat might be one useful defensive strategy. We know that N-95 masks are not perfect (hence the 95% protection rating) and some viral exposure can still happen. But the exposure can be so little that the body’s normal defenses can inactivate the invading viruses. I would propose that we use a saline nasal wash (for heaven’s sake don’t spray ordinary water or distilled water into your noses! It burns, so use saline). And maybe use a saline that has some antiviral substance(s) added to help combat the viruses and wash them out of the nose?Continue reading“Human Brain Directly Attacked by COVID-19, by ShepherdFarmerGeek”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we look at the Wuhan coronavirus crisis brewing in New York City, and the first wave of “camping” refugees leaving cities. To borrow some modern parlance: This is about the get real.

Re-Scheduling Note: Because of the urgency of some of this news, I decided to post this Odds ‘n Sods column on Saturday, instead of Sunday, this week.

Maine: First Comes The Trickle, Then The Torrent

A Fox network affiliate in Bangor, Maine reports on “visitors” to their state: DEEMI tracking visitors to Maine. Here is how the article begins:

‘A group in Maine is tracking who is traveling up Interstate 95 into the northern part of the state in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.

Members of Down East Emergency Medicine Institute are counting the license plates of folks driving north on I-95 past the Kelly Road every day at around 4:45 p.m.

‘We’re seeing large increases in the populations of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and one particular day before New York was locked down, we saw a large surge of people who came out of New York,” DEEMI Executive Director Richard Bowie said Wednesday. “This is concerning to us because of the infected folk that are coming from New York City that have been infected that are then traveling up here to find someplace of respite up in the woods.’

He added, ‘We’re seeing, you know, RVs, and campers and people’s cars loaded with camping gear. It’s very early in the year for that to be happening.'”

Florida Troopers Setting Up Checkpoints on Interstates

Reader Tim. J. sent us this: Gov. DeSantis suspends vacation rentals in Florida, orders checkpoints on roads.. Here is a pericope:

“Gov. Ron DeSantis is ordering that checkpoints be installed along Florida’s roads to account for traveling drivers and has also suspended all new vacation rentals in Florida for the next 14 days.

DeSantis made the announcement during a press conference on Friday.

For the next 14 days, new vacation rentals will not be permitted. Those already here can finish their trip, according to DeSantis, but are encouraged to go home as soon as possible.

DeSantis also ordered that checkpoints be installed along the state’s major roads that come into the Florida Panhandle from the Gulf Coast, including I-10.

The checkpoints do not apply to commercial drivers.

“There’ll probably be a diversion for folks with certain license plates,” DeSantis said. He didn’t give specifics as to where the checkpoints will be installed.”

JWR’s Comments:  Do you readers recall my advice (starting in 1993, with first publication of the draft edition of Patriots) to have an in-state driver’s license and your bug out vehicle registered in the state where you have your retreat? Mark My Words: We will see many more travel restrictions in the weeks to come.

Rhode Island to Hunt Down New York Refugees

Reader JJT sent this, with the comment “So it begins…”: Rhode Island Police to Hunt Down New Yorkers Seeking Refuge

Coronavirus Sends City Dwellers Fleeing to Second Homes

Reader G.Y. spotted this: Coronavirus sends city dwellers fleeing to second homes, inflaming tensions in towns across the nation. JWR’s Comment: Here we can see the “We/They” paradigm, writ large.

The Pandemic as Seen From a Safe Distance

This article caught my eye: Rural America watches pandemic erupt in cities as fear grows

The Pandemic as Seen From Up Close and Deadly

‘People Are Dying’: Battling Coronavirus Inside a N.Y.C. Hospital — NYT News. JWR’s Comments:  The great unspoken truth here is that suburban and small town hospitals will soon likely be stripped of their “extra” ventilators to supply the big cities. Keep in mind that a large portion of hospitals in the country are no longer independent. Soooo… The suits who run those corporations may soon order the redistribution of ventilators, medications, and even their staff to other hospitals under their corporate umbrella. Then, when the virus finally hits the hinterlands, the “stripped”  hospitals will be under-equipped.

They’re Moving to Idaho

Hopefully, most SurvivalBlog readers are well-situated, well-supplied, well-armed, and hunkered down where they plan to be, during the upcoming Peak Virus months. It is time to lock the gate. Check on your neighbors, and see if you can help them, logistically.

I know of a couple of families that are now in the middle of household moves to properties that they’ve purchased in Idaho. Take a look at the Orange Jeep Dad family (bloggers) and the Good Simple Living family (vloggers). Please pray for their health and safety, as they move in the midst of the midst of this global turmoil.  These folks are proof that it is not too late to move. If you’d like to do likewise, then see these two new SurvivalRealty.com listings:

Make the move now, folks!

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