Letter Re: Advice for a Concerned Investor

Greetings, Jim,
I looked at your research list under “Investing”. I have read much of it, and it doesn’t help me in my immediate concern. The sites on this list are good either for big-time or experienced investors, or they deal with specifics such as buying gold.

Where can I get overall, what-to-do-immediately-today, type of advice for the small guy. Say someone has one or two small businesses with maybe $20,000 in checking and another $2,000 in Savings (all in a bank). What to do? Where to keep the money? Is offshore a possibility? Recommended? Anyplace where I can still get a couple of percentage points of interest? Or put 100% in gold? (then how do I eat?).

I’m looking for the quick ‘n dirty answer such as your one-liner: “…get your beans, bullets and band-aids organized before investing…”

I’m getting real nervous, Jim. Thanks, – A.N.

JWR Replies: Keeping in mind my proviso about getting your beans, bullets and band-aids organized before investing anything extra, you might consider
If you need interest income, put your available cash in a relatively safe, inflation-indexed investment vehicle such as US Treasury TIPS.

or,

If you don’t need to rely on interest income, your money is far safer in tangible silver bullion. (Such as pre-1965 mint date non-numismatic (“junk”) circulated US silver dimes, quarters, or half dollars. Readers in other countries should buy the equivalent (such as pre-1953 Australian silver coins, in Australia), or perhaps generic one-ounce .999 fine silver “rounds”.

The recent price correction in silver represents a great buying opportunity, before the bull market resumes its charge.

Odds ‘n Sods:

OSOM mentioned some advice that will be familiar to SurvivalBlog Blog readers, from the Von Mises Institute, in an audio clip: What To Do in the Depression

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Thanks to KAF for sending this: Five Tick Diseases You Should Know About

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Cheryl N. flagged this: Investors Question Financial Sector Rebound. Here is a key quote: “…and several regional banks also posted losses Tuesday or said their profits fell.” But the author neglected to name those banks. Cheryl also found this gem: Death Spiral Financing at Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, WaMu...

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Eric spotted a Bloomberg article that quoted the Federal Reserve that all 12 of its regional bank districts reported “elevated or increasing” price pressures during June and July amid slower economic growth.

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Jack B. sent this link to an article at WorldNetDaily: Report: Surviving EMP to depend on preparation

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“He created all men to be equal, and endowed them with ‘certain unalienable rights,’ among them ‘life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.’ These words, in our Declaration of Independence, also convey the absolute conviction that without God and collective faith in His provision, human beings have no claim to this unprecedented freedom – that they might dream of it, long for it, try to accomplish some of it, but with no authority for it whatsoever.” – Pat Boone

Note from JWR:

In a recent e-mail, reader Andrew D. noted that I post precious little “good news” or lighthearted news in SurvivalBlog. I plead guilty! So I will henceforth do my best to counterbalance some of the vast volume of my Gloom und Doom. Here is a start: A good wheat harvest is expected this year in Ohio. And my sister suggested this bit of humorous news: Japanese chimp runs wild, steals tranquilizer gun. A Drudge reader notes: “He subsequently sold his freedom for a banana.”

Letter Re: Questions from A Not-Quite Convinced Reader

Hi James,
I’m new to reading SurvivalBlog and pages like it. A year ago, I wrote off survivalists, thinking there was no real chance of any kind of collapse. I’ve been changing my mind, though, and would like to know more about why you think such a thing is likely enough to prepare for. I haven’t read “Patriots”, but I’ve added it to my list.

I don’t want to believe in a coming collapse. There have been depressions before, and the fall of civilizations, but as far as I can tell, nothing on the scale of what you seem to talk about. Do you have any good historical examples I could look into? Has this sort of thing happened before?

Also, I think that you believe in this because it suits you. I know you don’t like the kind of power the government has over people, and it seems to me to be wishful thinking that things would happen in a way that makes that government unable to exercise that kind of power anymore. Or maybe it suits your because a collapse would be concrete proof that big government really is unsustainable. Believing in a coming collapse doesn’t suit me, though. I kind of like having my garbage picked up, and police and fire service.

Even though I don’t want to believe it, I’m starting to. Peak Oil seems real, and so much relies on oil. The economy and the currency do seem to be a house of cards after all. But I’m not quite convinced. I still think the odds are overwhelming that we’ll come out okay.

So what should I do? Just read your book? Your blog talks a lot about what to do, but seems fuzzy on why it should be done. Once I really do think there’s a chance of a collapse, I’m sure I can find a lot of information on your blog on how to prepare. I’m just not quite convinced yet. – Robert C.

JWR Replies: Societal collapse is captivating to write about and to discuss, but keep in mind that there is just a very small chance of it occurring in our lifetimes. An economic depression (a la the 1930s) is far more likely–and in fact at present seems almost imminent. This highlights what makes SurvivalBlog such a crucial resource and such a great gathering place for passionate yet polite discussion: By preparing for a “worst case”, SurvivalBlog readers can take anything lesser in stride. It is no wonder that SurvivalBlog has become the Internet’s most popular blog on survival and preparedness topics.

Economic collapses do indeed have historical precedents. Just listen to this audio clip by archaeologist Dr. Joseph A. Tainter on the history of economic collapses. At one time shepherds grazed their flocks in the ruined streets of Rome. That qualifies as genuine TEOTWAWKI, and the same could happen again.

I hope that you enjoy reading my novel. Just keep in mind that it portrays circumstances that are far worse than I actually anticipate (at least with any with likelihood). This was done in part to make the story more dramatic, and as an excuse to educate my readers about a variety of key technologies, techniques, and tactics.

Two Letters Re: Disseminating Local News and Information in a Grid-Down Societal Collapse

Jim,
I think Brian raises a good question and your suggestion about using manual typewriters and mimeograph machines is a great idea. Here’s another one. While watching the the first season of Jericho DVDs, I noticed that in an episode titled “Black Jack” some of the characters went to a barter fair called Black Jack. They had to travel 200 miles to get to this town. The town’s fairgrounds were used as a barter fair location and in the middle (I assume the middle) was a tall board with a platform and a big roll of newspaper on the top. A writer standing on the platform would receive news from various sources and pull down the paper and write the news on it so everyone could see. I was thinking if rolls of paper are not available one could use black boards screwed together. If “black board paint” is available they could paint some 4′ x 8′ sheets of plywood. A place like this could become a very important gathering place for the local community to exchange news, barter for goods and bring some level of normal life back to folks post TEOTWAWKI. Just My Humble Opinion. – Larry in Kansas

 

Dear Jim;
As a former offset press operator with an interest in Christian missions and the underground Church, I’ve spent considerable time in researching simple printing methods. There are multiple methods that are suitable for short-run print production, though many take a degree of skill and a bit of patience to produce.

An excellent reference book for those interested in the manual printing arts is “The Alternative Printing Handbook,” (ISBN 014046509X), published by Penguin, but now out of print. Used copies are available on Amazon, though it’s listed there as “The Art of Printing by Hand.” It covers multiple printing methods for the do-it-yourself, small-scale printer. I’d like to touch on methods that require no power and are accessible to anyone with a little time, patience and a desire to get the word out.

You’ve already mentioned stencil duplicating, which I have used in the past. The Wikipedia article you linked to is an excellent introduction to the theory and history, but doesn’t contain much on actual process. For someone dealing with printed matter containing great quantities of text, this is one of the easiest methods to use. One of the commercial machines would be handy to have, but not required, as a simple flatbed duplicator can be constructed out of basic materials found in most homes. One benefit of many commercial units is that they are hand-cranked, ideal for a grid-down situation. Some electric units also have a hand-crank option as well, giving the best of both worlds. If you go this route, you will need a supply of blank stencils and the thick stencil ink, as well as a typewriter.

Another method, commonly used today for signs and fabric, is screen printing. Again, simple screen printing equipment can be made at home from readily-available materials and the process is not complicated. However, due to the screens used, it is not suitable for small type, but it is a great choice for handbills and posters. See some samples of DIY screen printing at this Instructables page and at this ThreadBanger page. Of course, you don’t have to build it all yourself if you don’t want to. Many art supply and craft stores offer screen printing kits for beginners at very reasonable prices.
Relief printing uses involves carving a reverse image into a wooden block, linoleum, or other substance that can be carved, inking the block and pressing paper into the wet ink. Though a time-tested method that requires little in the way of specialized tools, it has many limitations. It is time-consuming to create the block and takes a steady hand. Small type is difficult, if not impossible. Plus, the difficulty of working in reverse is quite challenging.

A form of relief printing that is within reach of the average person and allows for legible text is rubber stamping. Several manufacturers produce “make your own text” rubber stamp kits that will allow you to produce small blocks of text. It’s similar to the moveable type pioneered by Gutenberg centuries ago, using rubber instead of metal type. The biggest drawback is that producing anything more than a few sentences involves setting the type in a small block, stamping out however many copies you need, removing the type, setting the next block, stamping that, and then repeating… again. It’s time-consuming and tedious work, but for the patient person, it’s better than nothing, cheap to acquire and requires no skills to use. The drudgery involved is also likely to do much to make your writing concise and to the point! Interestingly, the large kits that I would recommend seem to only be offered in the UK. However, eBay is your friend to obtain them.

[Traditional ] letterpress is also an option, but as an older technology, the equipment is hard to come by, and much in demand by artisans who use it for printing and embossing.

Spirit duplication (“ditto” machines) use a dye sheet as a master, which can be typed or hand-written. The dye is released by a solvent and transferred to a sheet of paper. If you recall duplicated sheets in purple ink from your school days, those sheets were made with a spirit duplicator. Used machines can be found on eBay or from time to time on Craig’s List. Look for a hand-cranked model. If you choose this method, you’ll need to lay in a supply of the master dye sheets, as well as the liquid “spirits.”

There are other methods that might be investigated by the curious:
Gocco
Hectography
History of Duplication Machines

The biggest drawback to most of these print methods is that the ones that are best for text tend to require consumables that will be difficult or impossible to replace in a long-term disruption. Since some are older, near-obsolete methods, local sources of supplies are unlikely and may be pricey via mail-order. Even if you have a functioning print method, the availability of paper may also become an issue. Despite these challenges, familiarity with printing methods opens the door to improvisation at a later date: knowledge is power! As inspiration, consider Khristianin, an underground publisher in Soviet-era Russia, which created their first hand-operated offset printing press with gears from a bicycle and motorcycle and rollers taken from a washing machine. Ink was derived from burnt rubber boots and boiled moss, yet their first publication was of the entire New Testament. If such a work could be done in secret under one of the most oppressive modern regimes, there is no reason that it could not be repeated should the need arise.

Remember: “Freedom of the press belongs to the man who owns one.”

For the Kingdom, – Jason R.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Our friends Cheryl N. and Commander Zero both sent a link to an interesting article encapsulating the hows and whys (or at least one interpretation of them) of the current economic situation: Uncomfortable Answers to Questions on the Economy.

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Cheryl N. also found this: US Food Groups Plan Hefty Price Raises

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Bloomberg reports: GM, Ford ‘On the Verge of Bankruptcy,’ Altman Says. (A hat tip to Dan B. for the link.)

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Frequent content contributor Kevin A. sent this: “Is America ready for (true) foreign ownership of major financial institutions? And do we have a choice?” asks Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU’s Stern School. ‘They’re All Toast’

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The Daily Reckoning reports that with its currency hyperinflation rate at a nearly incalculable level, the Zimbabwean government has introduced a Z$100 Billion bank note. As my friend “Kevin Lendel” would say: Twice nothing is still nothing.

Note from JWR:

I heard from a dozen readers that I was recently quoted by WorldNetDaily, in an article about food shortages. (The article misidentifies the location of the Rawles Ranch, but I don’t mind keeping people guessing.) Food price jumps and food shortages have a tendency to get into a self-amplifying cycle, during times of crisis. Floods, droughts, and crop failures started the most recent cycle. But in my estimation it will be sharply higher prices for fertilizer and fuel that will exacerbate the problem. The bottom line: Be prepared for considerably higher prices and continued shortages in the next few years. And, as I’ve previously noted, we can also expect many more civil wars and regional wars in the Third World, where higher food prices have a tremendous impact on the poor. (Since food costs account for the majority of the average annual income there.)

Here is request that I got from a journalist: Details magazine (men.style.com) is looking to interview “men under 45 who live in urban or suburban areas who consider themselves survivalists and have begun stockpiling goods and preparing escape plans.” Please contact the writer Kayleen Schaefer via e-mail or phone: (212) 630-3869. The deadline is Friday, August 1. All of the usual OPSEC considerations apply.

Letter Re: What Preparations Should I Undertake Next?

Jim,
I just finished your novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. Thanks so much for writing it! I just wish I had found it sooner. I’ve always had a survival bent; I guess it started when I was in the Navy going through aircrew training. However in retrospect I realize now that it was kind of how I was brought up. I feel that I’m pretty squared away on the firearms battery , stored ammunition and communications gear. I hunt, fish and camp with my family often and am an avid shooter. Other that these things my wife and I definitely feel that we have to make some huge lifestyle changes for our family to prepare. We ’ ve been feeling this for the last few years but have just put it off and I don’t really think we knew how to direct our efforts. We’ve wanted to move west for some time but just haven ’ t made the leap. With the collapse appearing to be coming sooner as opposed to later I have two questions for you.

1) Now that the bank runs have started, how long do you think we have before things really start to fall apart? I realize this is just speculation but you r analysis has been pretty spot on so far.

2) If you were in my situation where it appears time is of essence where would you concentrate your efforts on preparation? I was just wondering if you had any prioritized kind of list, etc. for people coming to this realization in what appears to be the final hour?

Thanks so much for your book and all that you are doing with SurvivalBlog.com. You truly are a Patriot.
God Bless, – Chad in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

JWR Replies: Thanks for your e-mail. I don’t have a crystal ball, but things seem to be coming to a head, economically. Some of he most recent evidence of this: Cryptogon reports 8,500 U.S. Banks; Many Will Die Soon. And meanwhile, we read: Wachovia loses $8.9B, cuts 6,350 workers, dividend, and that WaMu isn’t trusting cashier’s checks from IndyMac Bank.

The credit collapse is only going to get worse, and l believe that here in the US it will eventually destroy the residential and commercial real estate markets, the stock market, the “Big Three” automobile manufacturers, the municipal bond market, and many banks. I just can’t with certainty say when.

As for “final hour” priority purchases, see my background article: The Desperation Shopping List: The Seven Critical Items that are Guaranteed to be Stripped From Store Shelves When You Need Them Most in a Crisis. This article is available free of charge from Arbogast Publishing, the folks that publish my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course.

At this point in your provisioning process, you should be concentrating on food and fuel storage. (Both fuel for vehicles and fuel for heating your home and retreat–firewood, home heating oil, propane, or low-smoke anthracite coal.) Be ready to hunker down and survive the loss of your job. Minimize your debts.

Odds are there won’t be a full-scale collapse. More likely, we will probably witness a deep, long depression. Think through the implications of being unemployed or under-employed for a full decade. Consider starting a home-based business with a “depression proof” product or service. As I’ve stated in the blog before, even in times of double digit inflation, you will still need some cash income to pay your bills.

Letter Re: The Importance of Pistol Holster Selection

James:
Thanks for the response! I didn’t expect my letter to hit the web page. I agree about the belt and my wonderful wife just got me a new black dress belt from Mitch Rosen gun leather (a bit over a hundred bucks but well worth it) as my original one was looking worn and (her word) ‘ugly’.

I always carried a Surefire [flashlight]- I’ve still got my original [Surefire Model] 6P from when they first came out. I’m [working] in an office (where guns are banned) now but always have the 6P on my belt next to my cell phone. In a pinch it can work as an improvised impact tool [employed much like a Kubotan,] too. (Been there, done that.)

A reload is vital to any basic carry set-up too and I’ve got a magazine carrier with a space for my [Surefire] 6P in it as well as a Mitch Rosen carrier just for the 6P when I’m not carrying my sidearm. If I had to pick two mags and no flashlight or the flashlight and a single reload – I’m going with the flashlight every time.

I’m lucky in that I’m friends with the local range owner so on a slow day he will shut the lights off on one side of the double range and let some of us do low light (flashlight) shooting. That’s something that also is never emphasized enough – most shooting incidents are at night in lousy lighting. If you are planning and thinking ahead you’ve turned out all the lights in your home/business and (without a gun) done search drills – use the flashlight, learn the ‘dark’ spots around your place and where you know ahead you will need extra light.

More than once in the middle of the day, someplace inside is still dark and a flashlight can be a life saver. Enough for now, thanks again and keep up the excellent work.
Paul

JWR Replies: It is notable that in many localities and situations where it is illegal to carry a firearm, a knife, or an impact weapon, it is perfectly legal to carry a walking stick, an umbrella, a flashlight, a stiff pocket comb, or a roll of coins. (Some of these can even be carried in the most restrictive environments, like commercial air travel.) All of these mundane objects can be easily explained to authorities. (OBTW, for some details on using an innocuous-looking pocket comb for self defense, see the Split Second Survival DVD, produced by Larry Wick.)

In essence, unarmed individuals are at the mercy or their environments, whereas armed individuals at least have the option of defending themselves. I hereby challenge all SurvivalBlog readers to make a solemn commitment to themselves: Never travel anywhere unarmed. Empty-hand martial arts are fine for someone that has years of training. But for the rest of us, the quickest and surest way to stop an assailant is with an effective weapon kept close at hand, following the requisite training. But even just taking rudimentary training and getting into the habit of constantly being armed will put you miles ahead of 90% of the sheeple.

To be fully and properly prepared, I strongly recommend that you get the very best firearms and street survival training available, from one of the major training organizations like Front Sight, Gunsite, or Thunder Ranch. Another key factor is situational awareness. Learn the Color Codes of Mental Awareness and consistently apply them to your everyday life.

Four Letters Re: Advice on Motorcycles

Jim:

If you don’t want to mess with mixing gas and oil in a 2-stroke bike engine, try the 4-stroke engine at BikeEngines.com. I’ve got one and it runs like a champ, at a couple of hundred miles per gallon! Regards, – Hawaiian K.

Jim:
The 2-cycle bicycle motorizing company mentioned also has a 4-cycle gasoline version. With those, of course no fuel mixing oil required. – SF in Hawaii

 

Dear Jim and Family,
Dunno if you’re aware, but methanol required for a mimeograph is a normal fraction from the alcohol still process, usually the upper third of the distillate. As its poisonous to drink, you boil it off first to remove it from your ethanol and keep it separately. Its a good fuel and has other uses, just don’t get it on your skin as its very toxic.

On a side note, methanol is a critical part of the biodiesel chemical process, so you really do want to save it for that purpose, for trading if nothing else. It’s probably on the same order of value as .22LR ammo or cured meat for general trade value as a good. I’d even say its as good as currency if you’ve got a good container and a silicone packet to absorb water and keep it from spoiling the purity of the chemical.

So having an alcohol still for fuel and chemical processing is a really good idea for any self sufficient inclinations. Hopefully, once this terrible war in Iraq comes to a close and the majority of US troops come home Hayes Diesel Technology (HDT) will release their civilian version of their super-small and super-high-mileage diesel engine will become available. I’m also hoping their bikes will sell for around $8,000 instead of the current $19,000 for their tactical diesel scout bike based on the Kawasaki KLR. If they do, I’ll be getting one. Sustainable transportation you don’t have to pedal is a wonderful thing to have. Especially if it will run on Straight Vegetable Oil (SVO). Imagine buying a gallon of soybean oil at the local supermarket and running the next two weeks on that. Downside? Your bike smells like stir fry. Upside? No funding terrorists just to get to work. That’s the pretty big upside. I hope HDT is sensible about their engine setup and goes with SVO compatibility. Best, – InyoKern

Hey Jim:
I’m a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber with an idea: How about a place for everyone to show their Bug out Vehicle? Might be fun and give folks some ideas as well as show the innovation of SurvivalBlog readers. “Don’t tell them what to do, tell them what you want and they will surprise you with their ingenuity” – American Army General.

I rode my KLR 650 (with home made saddlebags) from Tucson to Yosemite, then San Francisco and back. That was 2,200 miles in six days. I calculated that the bike got 58 miles per gallon. – James C.

JWR Replies: Since a fair portion of my readership with mobile devices insists on a “text only” blog, I don’t post photos. But I’d gladly accept descriptions of your “G.O.O.D.” vehicles. Just e-mail them to me. (And feel free to include links to photos that are posted off-site.) Consider this survey now open for entries!

Odds ‘n Sods:

Frequent content contributor Cheryl N. flagged an article at WorldNetDaily: 1930s Bank Runs Are Back. Speaking of banks, a recent Market Oracle article notes that Wachovia will soon close its wholesale lending unit and henceforth will lend only to bank customers, not brokers. Meanwhile, Bank of America’s purchase of Countrywide that supposed to close this quarter may not happen after all. B of A says it will not guarantee the Countrywide debt.

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The latest from Ultra Nanny State Britannia: Now there are 1,000 laws that will let the state into your home

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Matt in Tennessee recommends checking out this energy plan from a Big Oil Baron, T. Boone Pickens. As has been the case, irony aside, the oil people have been the first in the renewables market. Anyway, this plan is most revealing and is on a huge or macro scale what you propose and promote on an individual or micro scale. Good stuff!

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In his most recent e-letter, veteran economist Howard J. Ruff recommends divesting from precious metals exchange traded fund (ETF) investments and substituting physical metals that are held in your personal possession. He cites some shady business practices by Barclays, the owners of the Silver ETF (SLV), in particular, as cause for concern. It seems that there is not nearly 1-for-1 equivalent storage of physical ounces of silver versus electronic shares. I strongly concur that there is no substitute for having tangible precious metals stored securely at home, preferably in a hidden wall or door cache. (Such as a Rawles “Through the Looking Glass” cache.) OBTW, in anticipation of the unlikely event of a home invasion burglary, you should store a smaller quantity of silver coins in a separate cache, so that you can “toss a bone” if the bad guys hold a gun to your head.

Note from JWR:

Many thanks for your continuing prayers for The Memsahib. We are praying for a quick and full recovery. The bills for her hospitalization are piling up rapidly, so we’d appreciate your prayers that those needs will be met, as well.

Letter Re: UV Light for Sterilizing Water

In my reading about water purification one of the things that I read about was ultraviolet (UV) light purification. I discarded it because I live at a fairly high northern latitude (lower intensity light) and it is fairly cold here most of the year. I just noticed something though. Sitting next to me I have a “halogen gooseneck desk lamp” with a 20 Watt halogen JCD bulb in it. While looking at the glass piece that sits between the light and outside world I noticed that it says “UV Filter 001”. This got me to wondering how much UV light this bulb is throwing off, and if it could be used for water purification (assuming power is present and water is down or contaminated). I wasn’t able to find much info on UV output of halogen bulbs, other then G.E. claims that their bulbs put out very low amounts of UV.

Near the bottom of this page I did find a nice set of tables talking about how much UV is needed to kill various micro-organisms. – Ben

JWR Replies: To sterilize water, it is best to use a light bulb that is optimized for transmitting the UV portion of the light spectrum. As koi fish fanciers discovered a decade ago, UV light does a great job of sterilizing water.It actually does not kill all the bacteria, but it renders them harmless by making them incapable of reproduction. (Typically, folks with koi ponds use a water pump to circulate water in conjunction with a UV light that shines on a clear plexiglas section of water pipe, gradually treating all of the water in the pond.

On a smaller scale, the same technology is used with the SteriPen device made for backpackers. (SteriPens are available from SafeCastle, Ready Made Resources, and many other Internet vendors.)