Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems. We’re setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust.” – Investing Sage Jim Rogers



Note from JWR:

Just one day of bidding left! The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $770. The auction for a large mixed lot that includes: A Special Mixed Vegetable Case-Six #10 Dehydrated Food Cans (Retail Price $105.95) This special Mixed Vegetable Case contains six #10 (96-ounce) cans–one can of each of the following: Mixed Vegetable Blend, Green Beans, Sweet Garden Peas, Mixed Peppers, Potato Dices, and Sweet Potatoes and a EZ-Towels 10 Pack Combos (10 bags of 50 towels. Retail value: $99.95). These items were donated by Jan at Healthy Harvest Foods. An assortment of world class loose leaf teas, and a box of Bellagio hot chocolate (25 individual packs), with a combined value of approximately $100. These items were courtesy of Charlie at CMEBrew.com. A NukAlert radiation detector (a $160 value), donated by at KI4U.com. And, a Katadyn VARIO water filter, donated by Ready Made Resources. (An $89 retail value.) The auction ends at midnight (EST) tomorrow (October 15, 2008.) Please e-mail us your bid.



Letter Re: Getting Adult Family Members Home in Times of Crisis

Greetings, Mr. Rawles,

I need advice and I trust you implicitly in survival matters. Here’s my issue:

I live in the country north of Tampa, Florida. Good dirt, well water (and well bucket), dogs, garden, silver coins stashed away. We are ready for whatever happens.

My 27 year old daughter lives in Austin, Texas. We have discussed her bugging out to come home, or to her grandmother’s home in Southwestern Alabama. She is preparing her bugout pack today, and waiting to hear from me to tell her to come home.

My question is this: At what point do I tell her to head home? What will I see or read that will make me pull the trigger to put this girl on the road? How will I know when it’s time, and allow enough time for her to get as far as possible in her car?

I would really rather have her in Florida with me, but her grandmother is much closer, and also in the country. If I want my daughter here, with me, how much time….

I guess that’s my question – how much time do you think we have, it’s now Friday at 2:30, and the market is about to drop below 8,000. How much time before the meltdown? At what state of preparedness should I have my kid??

Please help. Thank you for your fabulous work. – Terri L.

 

JWR Replies: First let me say I expect this to be a slow slide. But also let me say that I am not a prophet. I am all too human. For example, like a lot of people I got a lot more motivated by Y2K than the situation warranted.

It is probably not yet the time to call your daughter home–not unless she would like to move back to Florida, anyway.You might want to discuss this with her at length. A lot of it might revolve around her work situation: Can she take a leave of absence from her work, and then return to Texas if things “blow over”? Does she have vacation on the books that she can “burn”?

Regardless, advise her to henceforth always keep her car’s tank at least 3/4 full whenever returning to her home at the end of the day.
She should probably now store some full five gallon gas cans, since the trip will require a couple of re-fills. Does she have a trailer for her vehicle? Perhaps she can store some gas with your relatives in Alabama, as a halfway re-fill point.

For now, just monitor the news closely. See: Mark 13:32, KJV. Pray fervently. Our nation needs it.



Letter Re: Another SurvivalBlog Reader’s Experience at Front Sight

Jim,
I noticed your recent post about Front Sight’s 2009 schedule. A friend and I just returned from the four-day defensive handgun course and one-day CCW course. We did the “Get a Gun” and train package. I’d like to give you a little summary of the experience, in the hopes that some of your readers might be encouraged to train.

My experience with shooting started at age 10, with my first .22 rifle. By age 19, I was a USMC rifle expert, and in the 17 years since then, have done a fair amount of recreational target shooting. I’ve always kept a handgun in the home for protection. But, the only real training in firearms I received was in the Marine Corps. Whenever I thought about my level of competence, I would tell myself that if I ever needed to use a gun in defense of life, that I would “rise to the occasion” and do what I had to. After reading Boston’s Gun Bible, and many posts on SurvivalBlog about the value of training, I decided that I wasn’t competent enough with handguns to actually defend myself in the stress and chaos of a lethal encounter. When I read about Front Sight’s “Get a Gun and Train” deal, I decided it was too good to pass up.

In the four days at Front Sight, we trained for about 9-to-10 hours per day, with a night shoot on the third day adding an extra three hours. They use a student/coach system that requires you to watch your buddy as he goes through the exercises. You’re expected to correct anything he does wrong, and then the roles reverse so he can watch you. This alternating teach/learn makes the training process really effective and the techniques for handling the firearm sink in quickly. They stress developing muscle memory on the range, and with “dry practice” drills. We learned how to rapidly deal with the three types of weapon malfunctions, shooting while moving, clearing doors, corners, and rooms, rapid presentation to the target, the “three secrets”, and much more. By the end of the fifth day CCW class, I felt a huge amount of confidence with my Glock that I never felt before. It was so comfortable and felt like an extension of my hand.

The instructors were professional and very friendly. In fact, at the end of the last day, after class, my friend and I had a few hundred extra rounds in our range bag. So, one of the instructors voluntarily ran the two of us through some of the high-level confrontation drills like close-quarters (three feet away) shooting, walking head-shots, etc. He spend about two hours just with us, so we could get even better. He probably could have gone home to his family but he stayed there to train us for free. We were extremely satisfied with the whole experience.

What I realized after getting the training, was that no matter what I thought of my abilities, they were not good enough to bet my life on. Only by training, and continuing to train, can I actually depend on my gun to protect lives. Lethal encounters never happen when you plan on them, so you’ll only be “half as good as your best day on the range”. The more training you have, the better that “half as good” will be when your body is flushed with adrenaline, your hands are shaking, you’re trying to overcome shock, and fight for your life.

Quality training, and continued practice, are a must for anyone who owns a gun for defense. And with an uncertain future ahead, I would jump on Front Sight’s deal while the planes are still regularly flying. Regards, – Robert A. (a 10 Cent Challenge Subscriber)



Letter Re: The Icelanders’ Tangibles Shopping Spree

James,
Check out this article that I found on Bloomberg.com Icelandic Shoppers Splurge as Currency Woes Reduce Food Imports. It looks like Iceland is in deep Schumer – running out of food.
This reminds me of your warnings regarding Hawaii and Alaska – though the same problem can happen in the lower 48 on a grander scale, since we no longer produce enough food. It is time to move my family back to Montana! Best to you and yours.- Stewart R.

P.S.: Back in 1999 I bought several Wiggy’s brand sleeping bags. Those bags are wonderful.

JWR Replies: We can probably expect to see a similar purchasing rush sometime in the next few years here in the US, once the US Dollar starts its anticipated death spiral. Tangibles, tangibles, tangibles!



Letter Re: Everyday Carry Pocketknife Recommendation?

Jim
Like you, I’m constantly trying to find out what the best knives are. There are so many, at so many different prices, that it is easy to get sidetracked.
With the articles my friend Phil Elmore and I write at The Martialist, we have gone through hundreds of knives over the years. Some great, some are not so spectacular.
Let me tell you about the ones I have grown fond of. Not all of them are cheap, but many are.

1. CRKT Grant Hawk D.O.G. [deadbolt over grabstep] Lock. Its an open body, easily sharpened folder with a strong lock that is almost impossible to defeat. CRKT no longer makes them, but the D.O.G. lock is available on eBay all the time. Easy to clean if you use it to dress a game animal as well.

2. Spyderco Para Military. A shortened, easier to handle version of the large Military, I know of several soldiers, hunters and first responders who carry these in their go bags.

3. CRKT M-21 Carbon fiber special forces. I chose it because I think the tanto blade, which is used in the M-16 series, is really only useful for cutting someone out of a wreck, a crashed plane, or fighting with a goblin who is wearing body armor.

4.Spyderco waved Endura. If you can get it in VG-10 steel, the Endura is a top flight choice. The wave feature was designed by Ernie Emerson and first came out in their Emerson Commander. The wave makes it a simple matter to open the knife one handed.

5.If one looks hard enough, it’s easy to find a used Spyderco Chinook II folder on eBay. Designed by James Keating, that knife is robust enough to field dress an Elk, help cut up wood for campfires and yes, even use in self defense against an attacker if you get caught away from your handgun or shotgun.

What about fixed blades?
I like my Fallkniven F-1 fixed blade. Its designed right, with respect to the designs of Loveless, and is useful as a pilot’s knife. I know of at least one army pilot in Iraq who has one strapped to his web gear every day as he goes out in his Blackhawk helicopter. Mine has been used to field dress three deer, a friend borrowed it to cut up a black bear with, and I’ve carried it during every camping trip for three years.
At this point, mine is in the go bag in the back seat of my Ford Explorer, along with camping gear, several loaded glock mags and numerous shotgun shells.
The great thing is, any of these knives can be found for less than a hundred dollar bill. – Lawrence K.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Portfolio.com reports that “unlimited dollar funding” has now been promised by the G-7 to re-liquify the credit markets on both side of the Atlantic: Flood the Zone. Just as I warned, the MOAB knows no boundaries. The destruction of the dollar via mass inflation now seems inevitable. Get out of your dollar-denominated investments immediately. Shelter your assets in practical tangibles, ASAP! Now, on to more economic news and commentary, courtesy of our stalwart Economic Editor: Manic Monday: Dow Roars Back After Worst Week EverMorgan Stanley Gets $9 Billion LifelineSovereign Bancorp In Talks With Spain’s Banco SantanderFRB Press Release: ‘Unlimited Funding’ MeasuresTreasury To Invest In Healthy BanksThe Crushing Potential Of Financial DerivativesIcelandic Shoppers Empty SupermarketsIMF Warns Markets Could Drop Another 20%Two Million Britons On The Dole By ChristmasMost US States, Cities Virtually BankruptTwo More Banks Closed By RegulatorsUS Gasoline Price Marks Biggest Drop Ever

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Brandy in Southern California sent us this: Thieves snag catalytic converters in Murrieta parking lots. Brandy’s comment: “This article illustrates that when things get bad, you’ll even have to be careful about where you park your car.”

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Tomorrow is the last day in Safecastle’s 25%-off Mountain House sale. Their freeze dried canned foods have a 30 year shelf life. Get your order in right away!

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Rourke flagged this one: Modern Survivalists Exist Among Us. Note the typical urban elitist spin, that attempts to make prepared individuals look like a fanatical fringe element.

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Mark in Washington reports seeing some very brisk sales at the recent Puyallup gun show (near Seattle). “Mark’s comment: “The ammunition guys were barely able to sit down at all. One gun dealer said he sold 26 on Saturday alone. A very large number of people that I spoke to this weekend were talking about how important is it be better prepared. If I had to put a word to the overall mood of the buyer was fear. I personally heard a number of people talking about the upcoming election and the current economic crisis as reasons for getting out to the show and buying.”





Note from JWR:

A reminder that the special 33%-off “Pre-Election” sale price on the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course ends at midnight on Tuesday, November 4th. (Election Day, in the US.)



Letter Re: Finding a Like-Minded Spouse

JWR –
I have read through all of your archives, and your Finding Like-Minded People in Your Area [static page]. From a recent personal experience, I thought maybe it might help to note that the site www.FarmersOnly.com is an online dating-type site that caters to:

“Farmers, Ranchers, Ag Students and all of Agriculture
Horse, Livestock Owners and all Animal Lovers
Cowboys, Cowgirls, Rodeo Fans and Country Wannabes”

I recently signed up and, unlike the mainstream sites, they give you a three day “try it before you buy it” period. Also, unlike the mainstream sites, their membership fees are reasonable for anyone who is just casually “looking” and can’t justify sacrificing their logistics budget on a $200+ per year subscription.
The really impressive part is that by the last day of my three-day trial period I had already met four women who were really into survival and survivalesque activities. One of them even reads SurvivalBlog on a regular basis! Apparently, this is a smaller, more niche-based online dating site, and it seems as though it is mostly compatible with the single survivalist.
I’m not affiliated with the site in any way besides just recently signing-up for the free trial. I just wanted to pass that along because it seems as though it is going to work out for me, and I figure some percentage of your readership may be in the lonely predicament similar to what I was. – Josh, Ohio



Letter Re: Machining–Making the Gears that Drive Industry, Agriculture, and Transport

Greetings Jim and the SurvivalBlog Family,
First of all, prayers sent for Memsahib’s recovery and your family’s well being.

At one point in my rather varied list of jobs to fill in while unemployed I found myself employed in a family owned machine shop. I reproduced drafted copies of gear drawings and specifications from previously made orders for the guys in the shop to manufacture the gear orders. I got a real education on just how gears and similar ‘small’ parts are made and I picked up a few skills that have helped me over the years in maintaining my own firearms and tools. This shop did not have any CNC machines but could make any, and I mean any, size gear from less than an inch in diameter to twelve to twenty foot diameter gears. In fact the larger gears, such as gears for elevators of all types, was what they built their reputation on. Can anyone think of any machine that does not have gears? They are like ball bearings and things don’t run unless the gears and ball bearings are present. Without those two elements a society will find itself in a pre-Industrial Revolution setting very quickly. Naturally the ‘stock up on ball bearings’ thought comes to mind. But the material heart of their shop was the type of machinery they used to manufacture the gears and the materials for their manufacture. I found out that material for gears are as varied as you could get and some material is down right surprising. Gears are made from steel, which comes to mind at once, but other materials have properties that will extend the life of the gear or of the equipment that it is used in. Gear materials range from the obligatory stainless steel to cast iron, bronze, brass, nylon (even large nylon gears), and some high tech polymers along with high tech alloys, aircraft grade aluminum, Bakelite (you’d be amazed just how hard and durable this ‘primitive’ plastic is and Masonite and compressed textile material. Each material type has it’s place as does the type of gear and usually if a Bakelite gear is replaced with nylon or soft steel that machine that uses the gear will have it’s life span greatly diminished. The exact gear type and the material it’s made from are critical. Depending on the application of the gear there may be some ‘wiggle room’ in material selection but that is the not the usual rule.

Now to the machinery used. Their shop was founded in the 1920s or so; I just don’t remember the exact year. But what I do remember is that the gear cutting machines were brought over from the USSR not long after the revolution! This equipment was being sold as surplus out of the USSR. The engineers were brought along as part of the contract and there was an interpreter to work with the owner and his shop crew to help set up and learn how to properly operate this specialized equipment. The interpreter was also the ‘political officer’ who was there to make sure that no one decided to defect. That produced a surreal atmosphere. A lot of the cast labels, etc. on the machines were in Russian and later plates with the English translation were installed after the machinery was installed and tested. The critical gauges were in numerals, which math is an international language. The process took a month or so to bring the shop online. Most of the machines had been belt driven, not electric motor driven and the pulleys, etc. had been removed and the electric motor attached when the equipment was setup. The shop retained the pulley systems in a warehouse. The dates of the machine’s manufacture in the USSR ranged from the middle to late 1800s, and had been refitted to original specs before being sold. The gear cutting equipment had been in shop maintained since being manufactured and never, ever, stopped. Some gears had to take a couple weeks to manufacture on these machines because of the size of the gear and or the hardness of the steel the gears had to be made from.

To illustrate the durability of this 19th Century equipment, the gear machines were often set up to run 24/7 to cut the large-sized gears, which are slowly cut and often would be left cutting over weekends. The operator only had to come in to clear away the cuttings and fill the cutting fluid tanks to safe levels and make sure the cast metal didn’t have any voids in it which would compromise the integrity of the gear. Of course if a void showed, which from time to time happens, the process was stopped and a new gear blank replaced and cutting began anew. The initial construction of these gear cutters was the most amazing quality and durability I have ever seen. All the chassis, if that is the proper term, were huge castings, and then the rest was machined by even larger machinery. The cutting accuracy of the USSR-made industrial machines was only surpassed when computerized machinery became the standard. The designers and builders had a quality control that could rival any other country for the same type of equipment. To give a size comparison to the scope of the gear size this equipment could cut; the company was approached by the Department of Defense in the 1980s to manufacture the drive sprockets for the then-new M1 Abrams tank. There were only a handful of companies in the U.S. that had the capacity to be a subcontractor for the making of the drive sprockets and maintain a high level of quality control. And even though the company stood to make a lot of money, the owner declined the offer because he did not want the government to come in and tell him how things were to be done. Apparently their would have been a government bureaucrat hovering about and sticking his nose into every aspect of the operation of the company, even into areas not directly related to the drive sprocket manufacture. And since the contract would have been on a defense project the security would have been very restrictive on the movements of the employees. I thought it would have been a real irony to have the US main battle tank components manufactured not only on machinery from the late 19th Century but also from the Soviet Union!

Briefly about the talent that was in the shop, which is a critical component to the small machine shop. The owner and his sons were second and third generation owner/operators of the shop. The owner’s father built it up from nothing, and hand selected all the equipment. He had selected the Russian equipment because he had seen it in operation and knew the quality. I saw the owner and his sons take and look at the gear to be made and immediately know not only the type but also the thread pitch, among all the other particulars to what to make it from and how long it would take to make it. This skill can not be learned in a book or in a classroom. It takes years to master this type of trade. Some of the guys in the shop were nothing less and geniuses when it came to turning a gear blank into a perfect gear. Even the owner would double-check the specifications of the gear sample he examined, as well as the shop foreman and the craftsman who would run the particular machine that made the gear. On more than one occasion they would spot flaws in a gear from the customer whereby the customer thought they were correct on the specifications but in fact they were in error. They had purchased a gear from another company who said they made it according to the given specifications. But in fact it had been poorly manufactured and was out of specification and as a result the equipment it was installed on wore it out or broke the gear (along with others that meshed with it). The gears they got from the shop I worked at were flawless and the client got properly drafted drawings and specifications from our shop for their future reference. We got a lot of repeat orders. Computers can do some outstanding things, but in the situation that this blog addresses that kind of equipment may not be the better choice in the long run. The ‘old’ manual machinery can in the life span of a company or even a nation can have the greater value over ‘new’ computerized equipment in adverse circumstances.

I asked the owner why he and the company’s founder kept the belt drive systems of the equipment they got from the USSR. He said that his Dad fully expected that at some point after WWII we could face an armed conflict with Russia during the days of the Cold War and he kept it so that the equipment could be retrofitted and alternate power could keep most of the shop running. The generations that grew up during the Great Depression and the rationing of WWII had a totally different mindset than today’s generation. The Russians have traditionally followed a use and reuse policy. They mothballed earlier versions of equipment as new equipment replaced the old. Firearms collectors know of the thousands of capture German weapons were sent to arsenals for rework and along with Russia’s own weapons were stored for future use in case of armed conflict with NATO forces. And when that armed conflict did not happen, yet anyway, they took their ‘obsolete’ stockpile of small arms and sold it to generate funds when the USSR ‘collapsed’. It would serve us well to examine our current philosophy on use and ‘making do’ and modify it accordingly before we are slapped by forces beyond our control. The U.S. has lost so much of our heavy industry through waste and political correctness and political stupidity we can no longer cast the hulls of the Abrams tank. When the last one rolled off the assembly line the molds and other specialized equipment was scrapped. At the Patton Museum there is a tank the U.S. manufactured in the late 1940s that incorporates a solid cast turret and the tank was designed to go head to head against Russia’s heaviest main battle tank should a conflict with them break out in Europe. Today we can’t even manufacture that cast turret from a late 1940s tank.

Even though I have digital calipers, I have never discarded my manual dial calipers; and never will. Old does not necessarily mean obsolete. – The Rabid One



Odds ‘n Sods:

David V. sent us the link to some commentary by Bob Chapman on the derivatives threat: The Quadrillion Dollar Powder Keg Waiting To Blow. David also sent us the link to this piece by Porter Stansberry: How AIG’s Collapse Began a Global Run on the Banks

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Several folks sent us this “must read” piece by Bill Bonner: The Next Crisis Will Be Over Food. It begins: “The United States is now a net importer of food, we read recently. If we understand that correctly, there is no longer enough food Made in the USA to feed Americans’ appetites”

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More Friday Evening Follies: Meridian Bank and Main Street Bank both bite the dust. (The FDIC makes a habit of announcing bank failures on Fridays, just after business hours.)

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There are just two days left in Safecastle’s 25%-off Mountain House sale. This sale price probably won’t be repeated for a year, so get your order in soon!

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Some news from England, courtesy of Jack B.: Credit crunch-hit Brits turn to bartering. Also, this grim news: Bodies of the dead not being buried in echo of Winter of Discontent as effects of credit crunch spread across Britain



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“In one sense, what is happening is not the bankruptcy of America but the transfer of assets from the spendthrift imprudent to the frugal prudent. Is this a bad thing? I don’t think a “good/bad” statement has any meaning here; it is simply a market economy at work. Excesses get unwound, cash is always king, prudent investors tend to be rewarded and gamblers tend to lose all their money.” – Charles Hugh Smith



Letter Re: Getting Adult Family Members Home in Times of Crisis

Greetings, Mr. Rawles,

I need advice and I trust you implicitly in survival matters. Here’s my issue:

I live in the country north of Tampa, Florida. Good dirt, well water (and well bucket), dogs, garden, silver coins stashed away. We are ready for whatever happens.

My 27 year old daughter lives in Austin, Texas. We have discussed her bugging out to come home, or to her grandmother’s home in Southwestern Alabama. She is preparing her bugout pack today, and waiting to hear from me to tell her to come home.

My question is this: At what point do I tell her to head home? What will I see or read that will make me pull the trigger to put this girl on the road? How will I know when it’s time, and allow enough time for her to get as far as possible in her car?

I would really rather have her in Florida with me, but her grandmother is much closer, and also in the country. If I want my daughter here, with me, how much time….

I guess that’s my question – how much time do you think we have, it’s now Friday at 2:30, and the market is about to drop below 8,000. How much time before the meltdown? At what state of preparedness should I have my kid??

Please help. Thank you for your fabulous work. – Terri L.

 

JWR Replies: First let me say I expect this to be a slow slide. But also let me say that I am not a prophet. I am all too human. For example, like a lot of people I got a lot more motivated by Y2K than the situation warranted.

It is probably not yet the time to call your daughter home–not unless she would like to move back to Florida, anyway.You might want to discuss this with her at length. A lot of it might revolve around her work situation: Can she take a leave of absence from her work, and then return to Texas if things “blow over”? Does she have vacation on the books that she can “burn”?

Regardless, advise her to henceforth always keep her car’s tank at least 3/4 full whenever returning to her home at the end of the day.
She should probably now store some full five gallon gas cans, since the trip will require a couple of re-fills. Does she have a trailer for her vehicle? Perhaps she can store some gas with your relatives in Alabama, as a halfway re-fill point.

For now, just monitor the news closely. See: Mark 13:32, KJV. Pray fervently. Our nation needs it.



Note from JWR:

It will be interesting to see exactly what emerges from the G-20 meeting this weekend. At first blush, their “five point rescue plan” looks like: “Throw money at the problem, throw more money at the problem, repeat, repeat, fire for effect.” The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) has grown to multinational and unconstrained proportions. The MOAB will be so gargantuan that it will destroy the US dollar as a currency unit. Get ready for mass inflation–at least here in the States, and possibly across the Atlantic, as well.