Category: Plagues and Pandemics

Mexican Flu Update:

Reader RG in Arizona recommended this article: Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics Mexico: No New Swine Flu Deaths; Cases Up to 443 UK: Supermarkets Prepare For Panic Buying Why the Flu Can Never Be Eradicated CDC Current Statistics 21 states, 160 cases, 1 death (“officially”) More Schools Shut As Swine Flu Spreads (430 schools) “The government issued new guidance for schools with confirmed cases, saying they should close for at least 14 days because children can be contagious for seven to 10 days from when they get sick. That means parents can expect to have children at home …


Mexican Flu Update:

SurvivalBlog reader Laurence W. wrote to warn that it is premature to post early estimates that the Mexican Flu is mild. “It may or may not be. There are not enough data points yet to speak authoritatively. All one can correctly say is that it is too early to tell.” He cited recent some well-informed discussion threads in the Flu Wiki Forum and the PlanForPandemic.com Forum. Reader Laura C. recommended visiting the US Archives Online Exhibit of 1918 Flu. Photographs and Letters. 141 Cases, 19 States “The World Health Organization is warning of an imminent pandemic because scientists cannot predict …


Letter Re: The Rush Has Begun for Flu Prep Logistics

Aloha James, To confirm your take on the need to prepare ahead of time, I realized last weekend that this current event (Mexican Flu) would be a good opportunity to actually measure public reaction to an emergency. Thus, once the government announced a health emergency on Saturday, I began watching the shelves at three local drug stores and Amazon. Here’s what happened in Honolulu, Hawaii (a city of 800,000 and an international airport hub). Saturday – all shelves full of flu meds & masks Sunday – masks half gone, some in the back of the store, shelves full of flu …


Mexican Flu Update:

The first really good news on the flu outbreak came yesterday: Scientists See this Flu Strain as Relatively Mild. I am hopeful that the current strain won’t mutate into something more inimical. But be sure to be well prepared, and get in the habit of frequent hand washing, regardless.OBTW, if I were in a position of influence, I’d recommend that the custom of handshaking be temporarily replaced with saluting, as was done during the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic. (But alas, these days some segments of society might see that as overly militaristic and politically incorrect.) Reader Pat M. suggested an …


Mexican Flu Update

I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers seriously think through the implications of successive waves of Mexican Flu sweeping around the globe for the next three years. From what we’ve already seen of its virulence after the normal “cold and flu season”, then the next couple of winters could bring very high rates of infection and overwhelm the healthcare system. Please take the time to watch Dr. Henry Niman of Recombinomics discussing”Swine” flu. His projections are disturbing, to say the least! Think this through folks, on a macro scale: How would a pandemic impact your work? Commuting? Grocery shopping? Church activities? School? …


Mexican Flu Update

Cheryl wrote to mention an article that described using Vitamin D to prevent a cytokine storm The dose is 2,000 units of Vitamin D per kilogram (1 kg = 2.2046 pounds), once per day. Thus, for an average 150 lb. adult, the dose would be would be 136,060 units of Vitamin D. This is to be taken for three days. (I.U. Equivalence: 50,000 units = 1.25 mg) My Strong Proviso: The usual fat soluble vitamin (KADE) warnings apply. Don’t over-do a good thing. You should discuss vitamin D testing and replacement with your physician before acting on that doctor’s recommendations! …


Mexican Flu Update

It has been reported that the incubation period for the Mexican Swine Flu is 4-to-5 days, and perhaps as long as 10 days in children. That’s the “hot” period when someone infected is shedding the virus. This is bad news for epidemiologists. With modern air travel, this means that there is probably no stopping the flu from making it to the far reaches of the globe. So now, all that we can do is wait, watch, and pray that it doesn’t mutate into a more lethal strain. Barring that, my guesstimate is that it will be every country with a …


Mexican Flu Update

The new H1N1 swine-avian-human influenza is certainly getting its share of headlines. It will be interesting to see how this event progresses, and the reactions of the populace and governments. Here are some updates: The Mexican Flu now has a Wikipedia page that seems to be kept quite up to date. Here is a Google map showing the locales of confirmed and suspected cases Doc D. mentioned this piece at Mashable: How To: Track Swine Flu Online SurvivalBlog readers in Texas and Southern California have already noted shortages of Sambucol at their local drug stores. It is safe to assume …


Letter Re: Sambucol and the Cytokine Storm

Jim, Reading through your flu background article [Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic], I found your mention of [the Elderberry extract] Sambucol. I’m going to get some but you might want to read the article on Elderberry posted at the fluwiki web site. It sounds generally positive about Sambucol for seasonal flu, but does say this regarding avian flu: “However, elderberry also increases cytokine production. One specific concern with H5N1 infections is the possibility that this strain of flu may induce cytokine storm, leading to ARDS and the high mortality associated with it. It is unknown if the increased …


The Mexican Flu and You

In the past 24 hours I’ve received dozens of e-mails from SurvivalBlog readers about the emerging Mexican Flu. Some news stories have included cryptic comments from heath officials, implying that the mechanism of infection makes this particular virus “very difficult to contain.” This leads me to conclude that those infected have a long latency period during which they are infectious, yet, they do not display frank symptoms. This does not bode well for any hopes of containing the spread of the virus. Then we hear a CDC official stating: “The swine flu virus contains four different gene segments representing both …


Letter Re: The CDC’s Suggestions on Preparing for Future Flu Pandemics

Mr Rawles: My sister-in-law works for one of the large food bakeries. They make a well-known cracker that is purchased by a large portion of the US population every day. She manages health and safety for a number of their bakeries and recently attended a conference on pandemics hosted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The CDC is holding these conferences for companies producing staple foodstuffs as they say it isn’t “if” we will see a flu pandemic but “when”. The conference was a real eye-opener for my sister-in-law. The CDC says that we will either have a flu …


Letter Re: Preparing for Pole Shift?

Mr. Rawles, I have been trying to find out more about the consequences of a polar shift, particularly the effects it will have on the Great Lakes Region. I know that no one really knows what will happen, but everything I’ve seen points to something really really bad. If possible could you post what knowledge you may have on the subject on SurvivalBlog? Thank you, – Scott from Michigan JWR Replies: Rapid pole shift is a little more than an unsupported theory, touted mainly by the Art Bell crowd. In my opinion it should be one of the least of …


Letter Re: A Tasmanian’s Perspective on Preparedness

Hi, I have been reading SurvivalBlog now for several months and really enjoyed the articles. I live in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia . For those who don’t know the place and I imagine there are many who are unfamiliar with this part of the world, it’s an island at the bottom of Australia. I work on disease protection for the government. This involves responding to bird flu pandemics, terrorist attacks etc. Being an island at the bottom of the world with not many threats, it’s an easy job. But I do believe that there is lots of trouble coming in the …


Letter Re: Simulation of Pandemic Influenza – Preparedness Implications

Jim, I appreciate everything that you and your readers are doing to help change the mindset of people around the world. I was reviewing the May/June issue of a health care trade magazine that contained a report on a simulation carried out in Philadelphia at the start of this year dealing with pandemic influenza. While much of the discussion was relevant only to health insurers, the scenario that served as the simulation is detailed below. Readers can draw their own conclusions of the type of things that they should prepare for. The following is exerted from: Raymond, A.G. (2008). Pandemic …


Letter Re: Triage in Emergency Mass Critical Care (EMCC) Event

Dear JWR: I feel that there is a strong premonition in the article you flagged on Wednesday (Who Should Doctors Let Die in a Pandemic?) This hit the Main Stream Media (MSM) early this week and quickly fell off the news cycle. The topic is simply too uncomfortable. The original articles were published in the medical journal Chest (The Journal of the American College of Chest Physicians and are very dry and difficult reading even for a physician. This is unfortunate because it is a salient topic which needs to be vigorously publicly debated (instead of who got voted off …