Category: Plagues and Pandemics

SHTF Shopping, by SF in Hawaii

There are two types of survivalist [“Schumer Hits the Fan”] (SHTF) shopping. Pre-SHTF, and Imminent-SHTF. Let’s look at both of them . Pre-SHTF These are things you buy now while there is no immediate threat and no mobs of desperate people trying to get the same thing. People who know you think you are eccentric but mostly harmless. The readers of this site already know what kinds of items to store in advance (food, guns, ammunition, etc.) and so it will not be repeated here. Conceptually, these items should have long term storability, and in terms of food be used …


Kanban: America’s Ubiquitous “Just in Time” Inventory System–A Fragile House of Cards

When I give lectures or do radio interviews, I’m often asked for proof when I mention that we live in a “fragile society.” Here is one prime example: kanban. The kanban or “just in time” inventory system was developed in Japan, and became popular in America starting in the 1970s. It is now ubiquitous in nearly every industry. The concept is simple: Through close coordination with subcontractors and piece part suppliers, a manufacturer can keep its parts inventory small. (Kanban is a key element of “lean manufacturing.”) They only order batches of parts as needed (“just in time”), sometimes ordering …


Letter Re: The CDC’s New “Five Categories” for Pandemic Severity

Mr. Rawles, Given the unique nature of a flu pandemic, (or a “biological” attack), how would one assemble their retreat group after possible outbreak in one’s immediate area, (within 50 miles) with confidence? The vehicle alone that they travel in could be laden with contamination and the door handles become a scary transmission device. Seeing is believing, invisible is invisible. “To Group or not to Group?”, that is the question. – The Wanderer JWR Replies: There is no way to be certain to avoid exposure if an influenza outbreak is in close proximity. But odds are that the first outbreaks …


Letter Re: Veterinary Antibiotics

Jim, Thank you for responding to my e-mail. As a healthcare professional, many of us are going to have to make some really hard decisions in more difficult times when drugs will no longer be available. If it came down to having someone die or administering an out of date tetracycline, I would be happy to try the tetracycline out of date or not. Tough choices either way. The reason I continue this discussion is due partly to an article I read in The Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, March 28, 2000, page A-16. ‘Many Drugs Prove Potent Long Past Expiration …


The CDC’s New “Five Categories” for Pandemic Severity

Several SurvivalBlog readers mentioned an article that ran recently in the New York Times: U.S. Issues Guidelines in Case of Flu Pandemic. The article begins: “Cities should close schools for up to three months in the event of a severe flu outbreak, ball games and movies should be canceled and working hours staggered so subways and buses are less crowded, the federal government advised today in issuing new pandemic flu guidelines to states and cities. Health officials acknowledged that such measures would hugely disrupt public life, but they argued that these measure would buy the time needed to produce vaccines …


The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

At the dawn of the 21st century, we are living in an amazing time of prosperity. Our health care is excellent, our grocery store shelves burgeon with a huge assortment of fresh foods, and our telecommunications systems are lightning fast. We have relatively cheap transportation, and our cities are linked by an elaborate and fairly well-maintained system of roads, rails, canals, seaports, and airports. For the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s population will soon live in cities rather than in the countryside. But the downside to all this abundance is over-complexity, over-specialization, and lengthy supply …


Letter Re: An Interesting Television Show on the Pandemic Threat

Most everyone loves a good medical mystery. You know, we watch these shows like “House” and “ER” to see what the medical emergency is and to watch the drama unfold as they solve the crisis of the moment. Shows like “CSI” teach us a lot about the medical community and police work together to solve crimes. You’re going to probably see in the television season to come that the subject in this link is going to be played out in various popular drama shows. Understanding the reality behind it to me is as interesting as the drama plays and I …


Personal Hygiene in a Biowarfare World, by TruthFirst

It’s a new world: West Nile virus, Cryptosporidium, Anthrax, Norwalk virus, Cholera (in the Gulf States, from shellfish!), Avian Flu, Ebola, Malaria (yes, in the US!), Hepatitis C, HIV / AIDS, genetically-engineered bacteria, and the ominous and very real threat of biological warfare. Thanks to the speed of international travel, persons who would have never made it very far from the point they were infected can now circle the globe in the time it takes to develop symptoms. Someone you bump into at the mall could have contracted an exotic disease in Africa last week. The person who used the …


Novel H5N1 Bird Flu Sequence in Garut Cluster?

Hello Jim: Thought that this might be important, so am sending you a link to an article from Recombinomics. Read carefully–and between the lines. On the first page, click on the ‘alarming’ link. Then on that page, click on the ‘rapidly growing cluster’ link. From there, the next interesting link is ‘have failed to match’. Hopefully this is not the beginning of rapid H2H transfer, but Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) does seem to be mutating rapidly. When the folks at Recombinomics, ProMED, and CIDRAP all seem to be concerned, I get just a bit on edge. Thanks, – Cactus …


Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu and Waterfowl Migratory Flyways

1) I don’t know if you’ve seen it yet, but there is a map of “Waterfowl Flyways of North America” (put mouse cursor on icon in lower right corner and click to enlarge). This shows the routes that migratory ducks and geese follow when they return to the southern USA in the fall after mingling with Eurasian migratory birds in the subarctic over the summer. 2) That is, the map shows the primary routes along which Avian flu would be transmitted into the USA: a) Coastal bays like the Chesapeake and Delaware on the East Coast and San Francisco on …


From The Memsahib: Lessons Learned from The Black Death

The following are some interesting quotes that I found when doing some of genealogy research. (One of my ancestors was a Norseman who died of the plague in Avignon in 1349.) In Parma, Italy, the poet Petrarch wrote to his brother: When has any such thing been even heard or seen; in what annals has it ever been read that houses were left vacant, cities deserted, the country neglected, the fields too small for the dead and a fearful and universal solitude over the whole earth?… Oh happy people of the future, who have not known these miseries and perchance …


Letter Re: Vulnerability of Fish to Asian Avian Flu?

Regarding the question of fish and infection with H5N1 influenza virus: This is not the first time this question has come across my desk. While it is not wise to say “absolutely never” in biology, I find actual infection of fish with influenza viruses to be extremely unlikely. I’ve never encountered any study to show that fish (or insects, before someone asks) can be infected with or transmit influenza viruses. I am a public health M.D./epidemiologist, not a virologist, so I am prepared to be wrong. But I’d be surprised. The issue is not so much that certain animals are …


Letter Re: Vulnerability of Fish to Asian Avian Flu?

Hello Jim, We now know that cats and dogs can contract the [Asian] bird flu from ingesting contaminated/infected meat. What about fish in open ponds with infected ducks and geese contaminating the water? I have not heard anything about it, but wonder what might happen. Food for thought? – Mike in Michigan JWR Replies: Answering that goes far beyond my expertise. Perhaps some of our readers who are doctors (preferably with an epidemiology background) would care to comment.


Letter Re: Update on Asian Avian Flu, by Rourke

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820 March 22, 2006 – why it’s not going human to human (yet) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4829858.stm Where is it now (map) http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/health/ph_threats/com/Influenza/ai_recent_en.htm and http://www.birdflumap.com/ Note that there is a Yahoo group on this that John Locke hosts: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BIRDFLUWATCH/ I should also mention that a person on my group alerted me to this site on bird flu: http://www.fluwikie.com which has the most forthright presentation of what you can do and should consider as to hygiene that I have seen: http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.PersonalHygiene Regards, – Rourke


Letter Re: A Mumps Outbreak in the U.S. Midwest

Dear Jim: All the talk about Bird Flu, and we are noticing we have a Mumps outbreak going on: “The mumps outbreak is being called the nation’s worst in 20 years. As of Thursday, Iowa had 975 cases of probable, confirmed and suspected cases, said Dr. Patricia Quinlisk, the state epidemiologist.” In addition, see the CDC’s backgrounder on Mumps. Regards, – Rourke