Category: Emerging Threats

What Will We Eat as the Oil Runs Out? (Pt. 2) , by Richard Heinberg

Impact of Biofuels One factor influencing food prices arises from the increasing incentives for farmers worldwide to grow biofuel crops rather than food crops. Ethanol and biodiesel can be produced from a variety of crops including maize, soy, rapeseed, sunflower, cassava, sugar cane, palm, and jatropha. As the price of oil rises, many farmers are finding that they can produce more income from their efforts by growing these crops and selling them to a biofuels plant, than by growing food crops either for their local community or for export. Already nearly 20 percent of the US maize crop is devoted …


Richard Heinberg: Conclusion and Footnotes

To conclude, let me simply restate what is I hope clear by now: Given the fact that fossil fuels are limited in quantity and that we are already in view of the global oil production peak, we must turn to a food system that is less fuel-reliant, even if the process is problematic in many ways. Of course, the process will take time; it is a journey that will take place over decades. Nevertheless, it must begin soon, and it must begin with a comprehensive plan. The transition to a fossil-fuel-free food system does not constitute a distant utopian proposal. …


What Will We Eat as the Oil Runs Out? (Pt. 1), by Richard Heinberg

The first dilemma consists of the direct impacts on agriculture of higher oil prices: increased costs for tractor fuel, agricultural chemicals, and the transport of farm inputs and outputs. The second is an indirect consequence of high oil prices – the increased demand for biofuels, which is resulting in farmland being turned from food production to fuel production, thus making food more costly. The third dilemma consists of the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events caused by fuel-based greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change is the greatest environmental crisis of our time; however, fossil fuel depletion complicates the situation …


Letter Re: Preparing for Pole Shift?

Mr. Rawles, I have been trying to find out more about the consequences of a polar shift, particularly the effects it will have on the Great Lakes Region. I know that no one really knows what will happen, but everything I’ve seen points to something really really bad. If possible could you post what knowledge you may have on the subject on SurvivalBlog? Thank you, – Scott from Michigan JWR Replies: Rapid pole shift is a little more than an unsupported theory, touted mainly by the Art Bell crowd. In my opinion it should be one of the least of …


Letter Re: A Tasmanian’s Perspective on Preparedness

Hi, I have been reading SurvivalBlog now for several months and really enjoyed the articles. I live in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia . For those who don’t know the place and I imagine there are many who are unfamiliar with this part of the world, it’s an island at the bottom of Australia. I work on disease protection for the government. This involves responding to bird flu pandemics, terrorist attacks etc. Being an island at the bottom of the world with not many threats, it’s an easy job. But I do believe that there is lots of trouble coming in the …


Letter Re: Maintaining the Nuclear Survival Mindset

Hi, I won’t mention my name because of the privacy concerns you so eloquently pointed out in your blog, but here’s an example of what you were asking about in regards to preparations for a new cold/hot war. I was in the USAF in Security Police from 1980 to 1989, the height of the Cold War, when President Reagan was stepping up the pressure on the then Soviet Union. I served in ICBMs (Minuteman III’s and the Peacekeeper) at Warren AFB in Wyoming and overseas in Ground Launched Cruise Missiles (GLCMs) at Florennes Air Base, Belgium. One of the things …


The Grand Illusion: G8 – 1 = Cold War II?

Perhaps Anatoliy Golitsyn was right. He was a high level Soviet defector that predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, claiming that perestroika and glasnost were charades that had been planned for decades by the Soviet-era KGB leadership to strategically deceive the West into thinking that we had “won” the Cold War. Some evidence: the recent Russian invasion of Georgia, Russia’s nuclear threats against Poland, and Putin’s hints of positioning ICBMs in Cuba. (As I’ve written before, history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but it often rhymes.) Was Golitsyn right? The West may have been the victim of the greatest dezinformatisaya …


The Golden Horde and the Thin Veneer

Because of the urbanization of the U.S. population, if the entire eastern or western power grid goes down for more than a week, the cities will rapidly become unlivable. I foresee that there will be an almost unstoppable chain of events: Power -> water -> food distribution -> law and order -> arson fires -> full scale looting As the comfort level in the cities rapidly drops to nil, there will be a massive involuntary outpouring from the big cities and suburbs into the hinterboonies. This is the phenomenon that my late father, Donald Robert Rawles–a career particle physics research …



Letter Re Preparing for a Dam Breach

Howdy Mr. Rawles, The article written by A.B.S. is very well written and gives one a lot to think about. There is an item for one’s Bug Out Bag (BOB) that I find useful in flood prone scenarios, but is rarely mentioned: A Personal Flotation Device (PFD). A PFD or ‘life jacket’ for each member of your party with their BOB in flood prone areas or situations is cheap insurance to keep you afloat. Granted, when you are in the drink, things are already going wrong, but staying afloat would be a key to staying alive! Also do not forget …


Preparing for a Dam Breach, by A.B.S.

Many of my fellow Tennesseans awoke to headlines the other day that two of the Corp of Engineers dams in our area that are supposed to protect the people from floods and provide water and electricity are in danger of failure. Built more than 50 years ago, the Wolf Creek Dam and the Center Hill Dam overlook several hundred thousand people in central Tennessee, and are leaking significantly. The Wolf Creek Dam has been classified as being at high risk of collapse. The Wolf Creek Dam is located on the Cumberland River 190 miles up stream from Nashville. The dam …


Four Letters Re: Questions from A Not-Quite Convinced Reader

Jim, I was intrigued by Robert C.’s recent letter which questions why we should prepare. I think he has a great question there, and one which deserves further discussion. I put together a personal ‘Top Five’ I’d like to share: Top Five Reasons To Be Preparedness Oriented: 5) It’s simply a natural extension of growing up — understanding and fulfilling our responsibilities. As babies we have all of our basic needs provided for us by our parents. As we mature, we all begin to take some responsibility for our own needs by doing things like getting an education; learning how …


Letter Re: A Reminder to Readers About Botulism

I think that the author of “Letter Re: A Reminder to Readers About Botulism” [posted on July 18th] is a little mistaken about the deadliness of “even a single small whiff of Botulinum toxin.” The video in the link he provided is a discussion of the effects of weaponized botulism toxin. In the video, it’s stated that botulism doesn’t make a very good open-air weapon, although it may have potential as a weapon in enclosed areas or by infecting food. According to the Botulism Handbook for Epidemiologists, Clinicians, and Laboratory Workers: …botulism can be picked up by (a) eating contaminated …


Letter Re: Novel Recommendation–“Solar Flare” by Larry Burkett

Mr. Rawles, I have read your novel Patriots and passed it along to several people that I know. Most of them now own their own copy as well and it has been a big boost in helping them see the need for making preparations for the times ahead. It is with great interest that I have read the recent discussions about solar flares on the blog. The novel that first piqued my interest in survival and preparedness was the book Solar Flare by Strategic Air Command veteran and former NASA employee Larry Burkett. The premise of the novel is an …


Letter Re: Has Family Preparedness in the U.S. Declined Since 9/11/01?

Dear Mr. Rawles, I first learned of your blog site through a New York Times article that ran back in April. Since then, I have spent a lot of time on your excellent site, and have followed many of your suggestions. I think the best you’ve made so far is that people read the book “Boston’s Gun Bible“. Mine is now a well thumbed rag doll, but the amount of knowledge contained within is impressive. My larder and defensive cache are coming along nicely. I want to point out another New York Times article to you: Are You Ready for …