HJL:
I just attended my insurance agent’s coop annual meeting where a “behavioral economist’ spoke. One of his points is that GDP growth is limited to 1.5% by the available labor, even allowing for the higher percentage that is U-6. He says the gap has narrowed but always present. I look at the change in the tax code to promote repatriation of funds held overseas and a potential repeat of the accelerated cost recovery rules on depreciation that powered the Reagan revitalization along with the convergence of robotic technology and wonder if any jobs would be produced by the wave of productivity increasing investments that will occur in the next two years. It turns out that that would be in harmony with our current situation.
As I have said before, Star Wars is instructive. There are warriors, slaves, and owner of the tools of production (robots). It is important for us to embrace or acquire an understanding of computers that control devices. Raspberry PI is a perfect learning platform. Welding (brazing, soldering) is another essential survival skill in the coming world. The “collapse” of the world as we know it does not necessarily mean traveling back to the 1880’s to become subsistence farmers. That paradigm can contain its own “normalcy bias”. It is important to acquire diverse skills and keep your antenna up for the rapid change coming at us. Don’t stop at just knowing how to feed your family. – R.V.