Letter Re: A Resource on Make-It-Yourself Backpacking Gear

Hello,
I came across this web site and thought I’d send you the link to a page at Backpacking.net: Make Your Own Gear! I can’t even sew my shirt buttons back on, but maybe it would be of use to other readers. [JWR Adds: Don’t miss the individual plans in the left hand bar.]

By the way, I gave your novel a good review on Amazon.com. Most everybody did. But I included a motivational quote in it that really means a lot to me. I heard it from an Amway tape many years ago:
“I will do today what others will not do, so I can do tomorrow what others cannot do”. I think it really speaks the survival mindset.

Have a great day, – Rod McG.



Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader “Cyberiot” mentioned that readers with concerns about pandemic flu may be interested in a new and growing online storybook sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). “Pandemic Influenza Storybook: Personal Recollections from Survivors, Families, and Friends” includes first-person accounts of the 1918 and 1957 flu pandemics. Readers are encouraged to contribute their own recollections. Speaking of flu pandemics, earlier this year, New Scientist magazine published a detailed analysis of how a 1918-scale influenza pandemic would affect the US economy.

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I’ve heard from a reader that he plans to attend the ASPO Peak Oil Conference in Sacramento, California, later this month. When you attend events like these, please wear a SurvivalBlog t-shirt or hat, or carry one of our tote bags or messenger bags. You may be surprised who you bump into! (And we need all the publicity we can get.)

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Range Rat sent us this article: Survey finds holes in US disaster preparedness. Range Rat’s comment: I think they are trying to go against basic human nature trying to get parents to evacuate without their children. No wonder 63% won’t go along with the plan. I’m shocked that 37% said that they would!

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Our Economic Editor sent us another raft of news and commentary: The Feds Are Running Scared, Feds Considering Bringing Fannie, Freddie On To Budget, “Let Them Eat Cake”, Pareto’s Bazooka, Calling US Bonds Home, Deployed to the Dole Line (The Mogambo Guru), Stop the Bailout, Bailouts Will Push US Into Depression, WaMu Downgraded to D+, and BofA Says Losses Have Shifted to Commercial Loans.

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John Embry comments on the coming bounce in precious metals prices: When gold is gone, market will go nuts. I concur that the price of gold is currently undervalued. It is a good time to buy physical gold! (Buying junior gold mining shares is much more risky, but the potential profits are larger.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"He answered and said unto them, When it is evening, ye say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red. And in the morning, It will be foul weather to day: for the sky is red and lowering. O ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but can ye not discern the signs of the times?" – Matthew 16:2-3



Notes from JWR:

Note from JWR:

I was saddened to hear that Chuck Karwan passed away last week, following open heart surgery. He was an exemplary American, a USMA West Point graduate (1969) that served in Vietnam and elsewhere (1st Calvary Division (Airmobile), 5th Infantry Division (Mechanized), and the 5th and 10th Special Forces Groups), and was a noted writer on knives and military firearms. He will be missed, especially by his friends in Oregon.

The SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction ends tonight (September 15th) at midnight, eastern time. The high bid is now at $580. The auction for a mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated by Ready Made Resources–a $320 value), a NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a Wilson Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value). Please e-mail us your bid, ASAP.



Note from JWR:

A SurvivalBlog reader in northwestern Alabama wrote me to mention that he witnessed the local price of gasoline jump $.70 per gallon overnight (to $5.35 per gallon.) This presumably, was in anticipation of a disruption in supply because of Hurricane Ike. It bears mentioning that many SurvivalBlog readers wisely have at-home underground gas and diesel tanks. Among other benefits, these allows them to ride out the ravages of occasional price spikes like this one, in which even wholesale gasoline jumped to over $5 per gallon! It is starting to look pretty C.C.R.-ish out there. (As the song goes: “Hope you have got your things together.” and “Looks like we’re in for nasty weather.”)



The Lehman Brothers Debacle Illustrates the Extent of the Global Credit Collapse

You probably saw yesterday’s headline in The Wall Street Journal: Lehman Races to Find a Buyer. Well, well. The once mighty Lehman Brothers Holdings firm had a market capitalization of $47 Billion last year. But when I last looked, it was down to a paltry $2.58 billion. The company is now definitely on the ropes. It is likely that the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) is going to grow even larger. There will probably be an announcement made this weekend of a “private” takeover of Lehman–possibly including an overseas “white knight”–but down in the fine print we will learn that the deal will all be guaranteed (directly or more likely indirectly) with funds from either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury. (For now, Federal officials assert that they are merely “helping” to arrange a private sale.) Does this sound reminiscent of the Goldman Sachs bailout, around this time last year? Methinks they’ll use the same mechanism.

Stepping back a bit, it is apparent that the Lehman Brothers debacle is merely symptomatic of a global credit market that is badly broken. Liquidity has dried up more than at any time in living memory, and companies are desperate for working capital. The Lehman failure will not be the last collapse of an investment bank, nor the largest. In my estimation, the liquidity collapse will continue, taking down some of the titans of Wall Street, in the process. As assets collapse in value, creditworthiness shrinks, and margin calls are made, in a widening death spiral. I believe that it is very likely that in the months to come, you will hear of huge derivatives failures, with vanishing counterparties leaving the other half of the “perfectly balanced risk sharing” model twisting in the breeze. There will be huge hedge funds that go belly-up, leaving their investors with little or nothing. First will come word of hedge fund redemption suspensions, followed by news of fund collapses, followed by news of pennies on the dollar settlements, or perhaps no pay-outs whatsoever. Keep in mind that these funds are not FDIC insured, so hedge fund investors could lose everything.

Watching this slow-moving avalanche will be agonizing, and last for years. As I’ve written before, it will be impossible to predict when it will end, because nobody can gauge where the “bottom” is, as entire asset classes lose more and more value. Up until now, most of the media attention has been focused on residential real estate. But for more than a year, I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop: commercial real estate. As the recession continues and companies tighten their belts and begin laying off employees in earnest, a drop in commercial real estate is inevitable. Next we’ll hear of stock market declines, and perhaps a full scale collapse of share prices. Then will come municipal bond failures, and both private and public pension fund failures.

Depending on how long the downward cycle continues, this could make the Great Depression of the 1930s seem mild, by comparison.

Be ready. Be prepared to lose your job. Now might be the time to think in terms of secondary streams of income. Build up a home-based business so that you will be able to meet your basic needs and pay your property taxes. If you haven’t done so already, then get out of debt. Free up as much cash as possible by selling your collectibles, your vacation property, and your “Big Boy Toys”. (What is more important: to you? Your neighbors admiring a fancy Jet Ski in your carport, or feeding your family?) Sell your sports car, and buy a beat-up ut mechanically sound Saturn or Toyota Corolla. Cash out of most of your US dollar-denominated investments. After paying down your debts, put the cash that is generated into a one year storage food supply and some practical, liquid tangibles. It is essential that you do not hesitate. If you wait another few months, the prices of “fru-fru” collectibles will plummet. Sell them now, while they are still worth something. Prepare and stand ready to provide for your family, regardless of what happens beyond your control. It is your responsibility to prepare.

The Memsahib Adds: In the context of all this talk of gloom and doom, I must add that it is important to maintain balance, perspective, and a positive Christ-centered outlook. Take time daily to enjoy the blessings of your family and friends. Don’t obsess on the darker aspect of the “what if?” future to the point that you stop enjoying life and make those around you miserable. Husbands in particular, take note: Prepare so that you can provide for your families, but don’t forget to enjoy the blessings that we enjoy in the present day. Keep in mind Ecclesiastes 9:7-9:
“Go then, eat your bread in happiness and drink your wine with a cheerful heart; for God has already approved your works.
Let your clothes be white all the time, and let not oil be lacking on your head.
Enjoy life with the woman whom you love all the days of your fleeting life which He has given to you under the sun; for this is your reward in life and in your toil in which you have labored under the sun.”



Letter Re: A SurvivalBlog Reader Prepares for Hurricane Ike

Dear Mr. Editor:

Just a quick note to tell you how people that read your blog are preparing for Ike. Thanks for all the great information.

I live near Houston in the suburbs, about 60 miles north of Galveston. Most of the stores are open and have plenty of water, drinks, bread, tuna and other canned foods. The stores have done a much better job this time of keeping needed items in stock than they did when Katrina was headed this way a couple years ago. The gas is going fast, and many stations are closed. I filled both my vehicles Thursday morning in preparation for the storm, even though I am not leaving. I expect a lot of rain and wind, but little rising water this far inland. Thanks to you, I am prepared. I have all my bottled water, food, flashlights, batteries, generator, extra fuel, tools and tarps, first aid kit, my bug out bag and firearms ready. We have copies of all our important papers and photo’s on DVD, along with extra cash and computer backup’s in the gun safe. We have secured our home as best we can and picked up anything outside that could be blown by the wind. I understand from other people that if someone wants your generator they just come and take it even at gun point. That will not happen here. I am a Life member of the NRA if that tells you something. Thanks again. Best Regards, – A Loyal Reader in Texas



Letter Re: National Geographic’s Cover Story on Soil and Food

JWR,
Here’s a link to the September 2008 National Geographic cover story about the world’s fragile soils and their diminishing capacity to feed 6.5 billion+ people as well as cautionary examples of places where the soils can no longer support the existing population due to poor stewardship in the past.

Pages 92-93 of the hardcopy edition have a great fold out map showing soil fertility areas around the world — a good retreats and relocation general shopping reference (although certainly not detailed enough for researching specific properties). My Best, – Lee in Hurricane Alley



Letter Re: An E-Mailed SurvivalBlog Digest?

Sir,
I would like to sign up to get your blogs [via e-mail]; but I can’t see where I do that; Could you please help me. Thanks, – Dianne M.

JWR Replies: For the privacy of my readers, I don’t have a digest of my blog that is e-mailed. (I don’t like to keep lists. I don’t even keep records of anyone that makes a voluntary subscription donation.) Just direct your web browser whenever you’d like to read SurvivalBlog. It is updated daily (and I haven’t missed a day since the blog was started three years ago), so you might want to make it your browser’s “home” page, so that you’ll be able to read all of the useful articles, letters, and quotes.



Odds ‘n Sods:

U.K. state memo warns of “anarchy” in the city streets. (Thanks to Florida Guy for the link.)

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Yishai flagged this for us, from The Morning Brief: “This could be the mother of year-ends,” Brian Sack, of Macroeconomic Advisers and a former Federal Reserve chief market analyst, tells Bloomberg, which says the Fed may have to increase the cash it provides to banks and brokers beyond already-record levels to help them balance their books at the end of the year in the wake of six bank failures in the past two months and rising concern about Lehman’s capital levels. Lenders’ borrowing costs may climb further as companies rush for cash to settle trades and buttress their balance sheets at year-end, Bloomberg says. Meanwhile,

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Reader John S. mentioned that Interordnance currently has a couple of bargains for folks that like to stock up on barter items in quantity: HK G3 (HK91) alloy magazines for $1 each if you buy 1,000 or more, and crates of 20 re-arsenalized Mosin Nagant 91/30 bolt action 7.62x54r rifles for $1,100 per crate. John notes: “This might be a good deal for a group that wanted to have extra inexpensive bolt action rifles on hand to pass out to others for defense purposes.” An FFL is required for ordering the rifles. BTW, anyone looking for pre-1899 bolt actions that do not require an FFL should contact The Pre-1899 Specialist (one of our loyal advertisers) or Empire Arms.

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Eric spotted this one from MarketWatch: Foreclosures.com Reports More Than 100,000 Homeowners Lost Homes in August; One Million Foreclosures Expected in 2008

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Thanks to EMBW for the link to a Popular Mechanics article on hidden spaces.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

‘What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.’ So, if government financial ‘favors’ are granted to reckless investment firms (Bear Stearns) and now mortgage borrowers, what about other economically vital ‘multiplier’ industries like: automakers, airlines, credit card and insurance companies and even corporate real estate lenders? The logical conclusion for this current drift is hyperinflation. In order to make good on its promises the Federal Government will have to resort to the printing press…with a vengeance. – John Browne



Notes from JWR:

I have some proverbial “good news and bad news” about the upcoming re-publishing of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. First the bad news: Because the publisher’s schedule is packed, the book won’t be available for ordering until March of 2009. The good news: It will probably include both a glossary and an index! Both are quite unusual for a novel, but if J.R.R. Tolkien’s publisher could do it, then so can mine. Perhaps I need to put a map in the frontispiece, with The Rocky Mountains in the place of The Misty Mountains.;-). More details will follow, as the book gets closer to publication.

Today we present another entry for Round 18 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:

First Prize: The writer of the best contributed article in the next 60 days will be awarded two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 18 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.



Energy Dependence and U.S. Military Policy, by Edward C.

“Oil is the world’s most critical resource”, and “without it, nothing works in an industrialized civilization as currently configured”1.“The issue is not whether DoD will be able to obtain the oil it needs to provide for our national defense, because it will”, but “trends in global supply and consumption patterns” serve to further “complicate…the challenge of providing fuel to DoD’s far-flung operations as well as affecting the price DoD must pay for fuel”2.

“Historically, no other energy source equals oil’s intrinsic qualities of extractability, transportability, versatility, and cost”3. The qualities that enabled oil to take over from coal as the front-line energy source for the industrialized world in the middle of the 20th century are as relevant today as they were then”4. Accordingly, and despite the best efforts of countless scientists in virtually all developed economies, “there is no (currently) viable substitute for petroleum”5. Oil is the very substance that provides not only for the global economy, but also for the continued American dominance on the world’s geopolitical stage. American power projection, both in terms of a diplomatic goal, but also military enforcement is totally reliant on petroleum and oil products. America’s relatively remote location to the global hot-spots of the Middle East and Eurasia is bridged by its navy and air forces – propelled by oil. Sustained land operations can not be currently fueled by any other means. Oil – or the dependence on it as the primary means of supplying energy – is becoming the key determinant for current and future national security policy. Accordingly, unless the United States fully recognizes this dependence, understands the threat to the American supply of oil from foreign suppliers and international competitors, and undertakes active measures to reduce the dependence on foreign oil, America will cease to be a global superpower.

The United States economy, and accordingly its current way of life, is virtually entirely dependent on foreign oil and the mercy of the suppliers. “The United States possesses 3 percent of the world’s remaining oil reserves but uses 25 percent of world daily oil production”6. “America imports almost 60% of its oil today” and, at current rates, will import “70% by 2025”7. For example, “well over half of the oil and petroleum products consumed in America—approximately 12 million barrels per day, or more than 600 gallons for every man, woman, and child each year—now come from abroad8. And, the U.S. government projects that the level of imports will only continue to rise, reaching between 16 and 21 million barrels per day by 20259. As a result, the United States has little choice but to continue its involvement in foreign conflicts directly tied to seeking and securing a steady supply of oil based energy. The greater America’s “dependence on oil, the greater the pressure to protect and control that oil”10.

“The use of military power to protect the flow of oil has been a central tenet of U.S. foreign policy since 1945”, the year that President Franklin D. Roosevelt “promised King Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia that the United States would protect the kingdom in return for special access to Saudi oil”11. In 1980, President Jimmy Carter “announced that the secure flow of oil from the Persian Gulf was in ‘the vital interests of the United States of America’ and that America would use ‘any means necessary, including military force’ to protect those interests from outside forces”12. There is little doubt that the 1991 conflict in Iraq was tied to America’s requirement for a stable supply of oil, and it is arguable that the current conflict in that same country has as much to do with oil as it does the Global War on Terror.
It is no wonder that the United States is so deeply invested in the Middle East, as two-thirds of the world’s oil is located there. However, that is not to say that America couldn’t find adequate short term supplies elsewhere, especially while alternative energy strategies are pursued. The first problem is that these “other oil suppliers, such as Venezuela, Russia, and West Africa, are also politically unstable and hold no significant long-term oil reserves compared to those in the Middle East”13. While the “intractable conflict with insurgent militant Islam has occupied center stage of the geopolitical scene for several years” other regional and global security issues are far from resolved14. Military actions in the former Soviet republic of Georgia reminds the world that Russia is far from ready to relinquish its former position on the world stage. Oil prices continue to sway as global security is further jeopardized, and consequently American diplomatic and military efforts see no respite in sight. Conflict in the Middle-East, and the neighboring Eurasian provinces, is not the only factor that could directly affect the flow of oil resources to the United States. The second takes the form of America’s emerging global energy competitor.

“With over one billion people, China is second only to the U.S. in oil consumption—and gaining fast”15. Furthermore, “China has one of the fastest growing economies in the world and an energy demand that is projected to grow by 150% by 2020”16. “China has little petroleum of its own, and it has been explored relentlessly, acre by acre, as a purely government enterprise unhampered by normal cost considerations”17. “China currently imports half of its oil, and like the United States, China will become increasingly dependent on oil from the Middle East”18.

As a result, “access to Middle East oil will over time become a key issue in relations between the two nations”19. “The more U.S. actions in the Middle East are perceived as an effort to dominate oil resources there, the more China will consider the United States a threat to its interests, and visa-versa”20. “In the current context of stagnating supply, this kind of demand competition is very destabilizing”21. As China is recognized not only for its energy requirements, the true gravity of the threat to America’s primacy becomes clearer.

When placed in context with America’s presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, a conflict less and less (if ever) palatable to Saudi Arabia and her Islamic neighbors, a continued economic and security relationship with the West could be threatened. China’s centrally managed and exploding economy, fueled largely through foreign oil, could easily supply the Middle Eastern oil producing nations with their much needed revenue. Furthermore, China’s peerless military can certainly provide the regional security those nations require. “China is a nuclear power with a nuclear ‘umbrella’ that it can spread out to shelter client nations”22. “China is geographically closer to the Middle East than America” and could comfortably protect the region at least as acceptably as America23. More threatening to America’s current security relationship is that “China could enter into a protective relationship with any number of nations from Central Asia to the Middle East, including an Arabia run by a militant Islamic theocracy”, and do so without the West’s burdensome “religious encumbrances”24. America must address this plausible threat, in hopes of “defusing a potential U.S.-Chinese rivalry over global oil supplies” and seek ways to not only partner with China in the long-term while reducing foreign oil dependency beginning in the short-term25.

Even once recognizing America’s dependence on foreign oil, the U.S. is virtually powerless to anything about it. America is held hostage to the shifting global markets, and the political views, perceptions, and instabilities of the oil producing nations. As such, despite the fact that energy dependence is likely never to cease, America must at least seek viable strategies to reduce or mitigate that dependence. America is at least beginning to take notice.

According to U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, “The real lesson here [is that] it only requires a relatively small amount of oil to be taken out of the system to have huge economic and security implications”26. However, recognition of that fact does not immediately translate to a shift in policy.

Understandably, the military end-item acquisition process places “the highest priority on performance”27. It is, after all, performance that insures America its air, land and sea supremacy. However, performance comes at a cost, a cost that is not always identified or considered during procurement. In FY99, “it cost the Air Force over $2.5 billion to deliver 130 million gallons of fuel”28. More specifically, “the Air Force spent 84 percent of its fuel delivery budget to deliver 6 percent of its fuel in FY99”29. Furthermore, “to deliver a gallon of fuel through a tanker in-flight costs $17.50 per gallon”, to (ground) “deliver a gallon of fuel to the forward edge of a battle area (FEBA) costs about $15.00”, while delivering a gallon of fuel far beyond the FEBA costs hundreds of dollars per gallon”30.
These unintended, or overlooked, costs not only exemplify America’s reliance on fuel to fight, but also how greater efficiency could save the taxpayers billions of dollars – dollars that could be spent on other defense technologies and support materials, or even to explore alternative means to reduce foreign energy dependence. But, conventional “operational and logistics wargaming focuses on mission execution, considering fuel as a fixed demand to be satisfied”, whose availability is a “given”31. However, due in large part to the rapidly rising costs of energy and the recognition of greater uncertainty with respect to long-term oil supplies, the DoD has begun to examine the energy dependence problem.

In the summer of 2005, select members gathered to conduct a combination wargame and economic simulation centered on energy and national policy, known as ‘Oil Shockwave’. “In a scenario confronted by the bipartisan panel of intelligence, military, and energy experts, a series of events over several months – unrest in Nigeria, an attack on an Alaskan oil facility, and the emergency evacuation of foreign nationals from Saudi Arabia – drives the price of oil to over $150 per barrel”32. “These events lower expected employment levels by more than 2 million jobs, embolden countries that are major oil producers and consumers to pressure the U.S. on key foreign policy concerns, and cause a variety of other significant economic and security challenges”33. It is not the plausibility of the scenario that merits attention, but simply the fact that foreign energy dependence is beginning to be actively recognized as directly related to U.S. national security.

Until the global economy no longer needs oil, America’s future shall remain so yoked. However, through recognition – exemplified by policy statements and exercises like “Oil Shockwave” – America can strengthen her national security by increasing fuel efficiency. In other words, America may still need foreign oil, but not so much. Not only will increased efficiency save the taxpayers money, but it could also serve to temper the possibility of conflict (with nations like China) over oil.

Increased military fuel efficiency may become a requirement, regardless of global supply. With U.S. federal spending tipping the scales at over $2.6 trillion annually, it is likely that the American people could tire of large defense budgets ($521.8 billion in 2006) when faced with rising fuel costs and the strain of more palatable domestic spending34. As it stands today, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security account for 39.9 percent of the federal budget, or $1.05 trillion35. Finally, interest on national debt and other non-defense discretionary spending account for 40.4 percent of the federal budget, or $1.57 trillion36. While the American populace ages, thus requiring consistent and even increasing domestic spending to fund the aforementioned programs, the people grow war weary. The direct costs, in the form of monetary spending, and indirect costs, in the form of the American casualties, have adversely shifted popular opinion with respect to the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. When faced with making choices between domestic programs and spending blood and treasure overseas, the electorate may choose to reduce defense spending by way of the ballot box. However, Americans understandably require a strong military to defend them, even if they don’t want to pay for it. Also, greater fuel costs could effectively slow, or halt, defense acquisitions due to fewer available purchasing dollars. If future administrations are forced to adjust defense spending – be it through a shift in the defense paradigm or because of greater fuel costs – efficiency is one solution.

Recent government studies have both addressed the need for greater defense related fuel efficiencies, but also identified that increased efficiency does not have to mean a loss in warfighting capabilities – quite the opposite. Published in 2005, a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers report, titled Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations, first recognized that “energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the (U.S. military) to carry out its mission…, and that current trends are not sustainable”37. “The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports”38. The report methodically details the challenges the nation faces with respect to energy assurance, and the related impacts. The report concludes with the following;

“The national and world energy situation mandates strategic planning and action by the Army. The pending challenges of meeting the Army’s ongoing energy requirements in a reliable, affordable, sustainable, and secure fashion demand thoughtful and comprehensive approaches. A deliberate careful review of energy source options and resulting tradeoffs is necessary. The informed and disciplined management of consumption is imperative.”39.

A 2001 report, chartered by the Under-Secretary of Defense for Acquisition Technology, and Logistics, titled “More Capable Warfighting Through Reduced Fuel Burden”, concluded that it is possible to “strengthen the linkage between warfighting capabilities and fuel…requirements through wargaming and new analytical tools” that examine fuel costs and efficiencies40. Furthermore, greater efficiencies can aid specific warfighting capabilities such as maneuver, security, and simplicity, to name a few. Maneuver is aided through efficiency by platforms being able to “travel faster and farther with reduced weight and smaller logistics tails that improve platform agility, loiter and flexibility”41. Security is enhanced by decreasing “platform vulnerability to attacks on supply lines, and reduces demand for strategic reserves”42. Finally, simplicity is realized through decreasing the “complexity and frequency of refueling operations and logistics planning, while reducing vulnerability to the ‘Fog of War’”43. Through such creative approaches, it is possible to maintain the performance that the services require while reducing fuel related costs.

There is no doubt that America can not maintain her global primacy without oil. Oil continues to drive national security policy, as revealed through America’s continued involvement in Middle Eastern affairs and conflicts. The United States has long known the importance of foreign oil, and her continued dependence on it. However, stagnating supplies as well as China’s emergence as a global competitor – both economically and militarily as well as a voracious oil consumer – has forced the United States to re-examine its energy dependence situation. The U.S. must accept that fact that through either open competition or economic pressures, America may not always enjoy such a free-flow of Arabian oil, thus placing its global primacy and national security in jeopardy. Accordingly, America’s only choice is to both embrace its competitors – in this case China – while seeking ways to mitigate the dependence on foreign oil and its impact on defense spending. Strategies such as more realistic operational wargaming and actively seeking efficiency solutions both reduce uncertainty while aiding America’s warfighting effectiveness. If such strategies are adopted, then America may very well retain its global primacy.

Notes
1) Kunstler, James Howard. The Long Emergency, New York: Grove Press, 2005. 64
2) Schneider, William. More Capable Warfighting Through Reduced Fuel Burden. 7
3) Fenderson, Adam and Anderson, Bart. US Army: Peak Oil and the Army’s future
4) Ibid
5) Ibid
6) Kunstler, 66
7) Collina, Tom Z. Oil Dependence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Real Dangers, Realistic Solutions. 2
8) Duffield, John S. Over a Barrel: The Costs of U.S. Foreign Oil Dependence
9) Ibid
10) Collina, 2
11) Ibid, 3
12) Ibid
13) Ibid, 2
14) Kunstler, 62
15) Collina, 4
16) Ibid
17) Kunstler, 83
18) Collina, 4
19) Ibid
20) Ibid
21) Ibid
22) Kunstler, 84
23) Ibid
24) Ibid
25) Collina, 4
26) Ibid, 5
27) Schneider, 65
28) Ibid, 18
29) Ibid
30) Ibid, 67
31) Ibid, 70
32) National Commission on Energy Policy. Oil Dependence Creates Severe National Security and Economic Risks
33) Ibid
34) Bittle, Scott and Johnson, Jean. Where Does the Money Go?, New York: Harper Collins, 2008. 83
35) Ibid
36) Ibid
37) Fournier, Donald F. and Westervelt, Eileen T. Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations; available from: p. xi
38) Ibid
39) Ibid, 59
40) Schneider, 75
41) Ibid, 10
42) Ibid
43) Ibid

Bibliography
1) Bittle, Scott and Johnson, Jean. Where Does the Money Go?, New York: Harper Collins, 2008.
2) Collina, Tom Z. Oil Dependence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Real Dangers, Realistic Solutions
3) Duffield, John S. Over a Barrel: The Costs of U.S. Foreign Oil Dependence
4) Fenderson, Adam and Anderson, Bart. US Army: Peak Oil and the Army’s future
5) Fournier, Donald F. and Westervelt, Eileen T. Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations
6) Kunstler, James Howard. The Long Emergency, New York: Grove Press, 2005.
7) National Commission on Energy Policy. Oil Dependence Creates Severe National Security and Economic Risks
8) Schneider, William. More Capable Warfighting Through Reduced Fuel Burden



Letter Re: Build it Yourself Farm and Homestead Equipment

Mr Rawles
While looking for plans and ideas for a new outbuilding for my home. I found this little gem solid information buried deep in the Countyplans.com web site. It has probably has around 150 plans to build everything from a Turret Lathe and Mill to Cement Mixers and Tractor Scoop Loaders. This stuff is in PDF format, download able and free. The plans are reprints from old do it yourself magazines and are past copyright so there isn’t any legal issues with the downloads

Now a lot of these equipment plans would not pass the government’s current nurf world standards for safety so use them at your risk. Anyone who has ever work around farm equipment knows to keep on their toes or you might end up with a interesting new nickname. Glad to hear the Memsahib is back in charge, our prayers are with you and yours. – Henry S.



Odds ‘n Sods:

With a web search, I came across a couple of Tsunami e-mail alert pages. One for coastal Alaska, coastal Canada, and coastal United States, and one for the entire Pacific Ocean. Speaking of alert e-mails, Weather.com provides free regional e-mail/cell phone severe weather alerts. And, as I’ve mentioned in SurvivalBlog before, anyone interested in radio propagation can get free solar flare alerts. (The latter is also useful for those of use that enjoy watching auroral displays.) But presently, of course, we are at a sunspot minimum.

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David F.sent us a link to an article that confirms my prediction for a recovery in the price of nickel: Poseidon’s Singleton Says Nickel Price at `Bottom of Curve’

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The recent discussion of night vision prompted reader Bill N. to send us a link to a useful article on night adaptation and off-center viewing.

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Foreign Bondholders – and not the U.S. Mortgage Market – Drove the Fannie/Freddie Bailout

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Paul from Kentucky and Rourke both sent us this: Miraculous survivors: Why they live while others die