Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in this column, in the Odds ‘n Sods Column, and in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

We had a fairly quiet week. With about 26 inches of snow now on the ground, and more coming, I’ve had to plow snow several times. If the weather pattern this autumn is any indication, it looks like we will be in for a long, snowy winter.

I’m continuing to make progress on my workshop remodeling projects. On Thursday, I installed a staircase. Next, I plan on decking the second-story floor with 3/4-inch tongue and groove plywood. Then it will be time for the second-story wall construction, with paneling and then shelving.

I set up one of the grow lights in our guest bedroom, to keep some winter greens growing.

Avalanche Lily Reports:

Dear Readers,
This week, we had a huge snowstorm that dumped just about two feet of snow!  Beautiful! Generally, we don’t receive this much snow until the end of December.  Not at the end of November and first day of December.  It has been a lot of work with shoveling paths, stairs, and entrances to animal sheds, and plowing.

A funny horse story:  While I was using the straw broom to brush snow off our SUV, the horses were milling around me, watching me and “asking” me to give them their afternoon meal. As I finished brushing off the sides of the car and the roof sections I could reach, I paused and held the broom across my arms with the brush towards S. our dominant horse, not on purpose.  I was trying to decide if I really wanted to be done.  There was still snow on the center of the roof and I am not tall enough to reach it and I was looking at it wondering if I should climb up there? While I looked at the snow and debated in my mind.  S. grabbed the broom in her mouth and tried to eat it!  As I tried to pull it away from her we had a momentary tug o war.  I was slightly startled that she thought that it was a food source. I never thought that a broom — that I think as a tool — would look like food to the horse after she had just watched me use it as a tool to clean off the SUV.  Interesting thought process…

M. our male cat and H. our young dog have been playing together in a very cute way. M will get up on the back of a recliner and face the dog who is trying to gently mouth/bite him. He will then with a look of boredom will gently bat with his paw at the dog’s nose. They will do this over and over again to stave off winter confinement boredom. So cute.

I walked and worked-out vigorously with bands and weights three times this week.  I needed days off between these workouts to let my muscles heal.

I continue to study Isaiah in Hebrew and now am in chapter 9.

Isaiah 9:6-7:

For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace.
כִּי־יֶלֶד יֻלַּד־לָנוּ בֵּן נִתַּן־לָנוּ וַתְּהִי הַמִּשְׂרָה עַל־שִׁכְמוֹ וַיִּקְרָא שְׁמוֹ פֶּלֶא יוֹעֵץ אֵל גִּבּוֹר אֲבִי עַד שַׂר־שָׁלֽוֹם׃
Of the increase of his government and peace there shall be no end, upon the throne of David, and upon his kingdom, to order it, and to establish it with judgment and with justice from henceforth even for ever. The zeal of the LORD of hosts will perform this.
 לםרבה הַמִּשְׂרָה וּלְשָׁלוֹם אֵֽין־קֵץ עַל־כִּסֵּא דָוִד וְעַל־מַמְלַכְתּוֹ לְהָכִין אֹתָהּ וּֽלְסַעֲדָהּ בְּמִשְׁפָּט וּבִצְדָקָה מֵעַתָּה וְעַד־עוֹלָם קִנְאַת יְהוָה צְבָאוֹת תַּעֲשֶׂה־זֹּֽאת

Take the time to listen to Glenn Beck’s Dream.

May you all have a very blessed and safe week.

– Avalanche Lily, Rawles

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As always,  please share and send e-mails of your own successes and hard-earned wisdom and we will post them in the “Snippets” column this coming week.  We want to hear from you.

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“For I know the thoughts that I think toward you, saith the Lord, thoughts of peace, and not of evil, to give you an expected end.
Then shall ye call upon me, and ye shall go and pray unto me, and I will hearken unto you.
And ye shall seek me, and find me, when ye shall search for me with all your heart.” – Jeremiah 29:11-13  (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — December 2, 2022

On December 2nd, 1823, what became known as the Monroe Doctrine was declared by President James Monroe to Congress outlining a foreign policy initiative that forbade European interference in the American hemisphere but also asserted U.S. neutrality in regard to future European conflicts.

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Today we present a guest article by Arkadiusz Sieroń, selected by JWR. It was first published by Sunshine Profits, and is reposted with permission.

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We are now seeking entries for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Stagflation: The Worse for Us, the Better for Gold, by Arkadiusz Sieroń

Stagflation is coming – and it could make the 1970s look like a walk in the park.

As you’ve probably noticed, I expect a recession next year, and I’m not alone, as this has become the baseline scenario for many financial institutions and analysts. Even the DSGE model used by the New York Fed shows an 80% probability of a hard landing (defined as four-quarter GDP growth dipping below -1%) over the next ten quarters. Reasons? Inflation and the Fed’s tightening cycle. The history is clear: whenever inflation has been above 5%, the Fed’s hikes in interest rates have always resulted in an economic downturn. The key yield curve has recently inverted, which means that the most reliable recessionary indicator has started to flash red light.

Although the coming recession could decrease the rate of inflation more than I assume, given the slowdown in money supply growth, I believe that high inflation (although lower compared to the current level) will continue through 2023 and perhaps also in 2024 due to the excess increase in money supply during the pandemic. It means that recession is likely to be accompanied by high inflation, forming a powerful yet negative combo, namely, stagflation.

If the calls for stagflation are correct, it suggests that the coming recession won’t be mild or short-lived, as it’s not easy to combat it. In the early 1980s, Paul Volcker had to raise the federal funds rate to above 17%, and later even 19% (see the chart below), to defeat inflation, which triggered a painful double-dip recession. During stagflation, there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy, and monetary policy becomes much more complicated, as the central bank doesn’t know whether to focus on fighting inflation, which could become entrenched, or rising unemployment. In a response to the Great Recession or the Great Lockdown, the Fed could ease its monetary policy aggressively to address declining aggregate demand and neutralize deflationary pressure. But if inflation remains high, Powell’s hands are tied.Continue reading“Stagflation: The Worse for Us, the Better for Gold, by Arkadiusz Sieroń”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the nascent drop in the U.S. real estate market. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Newmont: The Bottom Is In For Gold.

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Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollars.

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Report: China Suspected of Stockpiling Gold to ‘Cut Greenback Dependence’.

Economy & Finance:

St. Louis Fed: Weaker GDP Growth, Inflation Uncertainty Dim U.S. Economic Outlook.

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8 Market and Economic Predictions for 2023.

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The Looming Threat of a Rail Strike is Back. Here’s How a Potential Strike Could Affect You.  JWR Says: Top off your fuel tanks and your larder, now.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“All nature has come to expect from God a sense of orderliness. Whatever God does carries with it His fingerprint. And in the world around us His fingerprint of orderliness is evident to anybody who is honest with the facts. If you look at nature, you will discover a mathematical exactness. Without this precision, the entire world would be in utter confusion. One plus one always equals two no matter what part of the universe you happen to be in. And the laws of nature operate in beautiful harmony, a harmony that is ordered by God Himself.” – Aiden Wilson Tozer

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — December 1, 2022

This is the birthday of novelist Rex Stout (1886–1975). Rex Stout was the brother of Ruth Stout, the gardener who wrote about no till, year-round mulching, organic gardening in her book Gardening Without Work: For the Aging, the Busy, and the Indolent.

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Today we present the first entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

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But first, here is the judging on Round 103 of the contest.

Writing Contest Winners Announced — Round 103

We’ve completed the judging for Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prize winners are:

First Prize:

First prize is awarded to St. Funogas, for: My Ten-Day Test-My-Preps Adventure Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4. which was posted on October 13-17 2022. He will receive the following prizes:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

Second prize is awarded to M.B., for No Ammo, No Primers, No Problem!, which was posted in five parts from November 21-26, 2022: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5. He will receive the following prizes:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

Third prize is awarded to M.V., for Post-TEOTWAWKI Wound Care, which was posted on November 2-3 2022:  Part 1, and Part 2. He will receive the following prizes:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $100 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

Honorable Mention Prizes:

The Honorable Mention Prizes (transferable $100 FRN purchase credits toward the purchase of any antique or percussion replica gun from Elk Creek Company) go to the authors of these 11 articles:

Ready Made Resources Ultimate BOB Versus a Home-Built BOB, by Tunnel Rabbit

Examining Bob’s Big Bug Out Bag

Ready Made Resources lives up to its name in more than one way as a collection and outlet of some of the best prepping equipment and supplies. In total, it represents a substantial body of knowledge and experience, wrapped and stuffed onto a single website. Given that fact, no wonder customers are in awe of the variety and depth, and some consider Robert Griswald “King Prepper”. No doubt about it, as evidenced on the Internet, there must exist such a place hidden in the hills and hollers of Tennessee a veritable prepper’s dream warehouse. We press the buy button and the truck magically delivers. There is simply no other place like it, and their customer service is also first class.

As there is a treasure trove of good gear there, the hardcore survivalist would love to back up the pickup, or rather an 18-wheel truck. No wasting of time, we would make several trips and piles. Shopping until we drop, or like a dog in butcher shop, always looking for a bigger bone or better cut. It can be fun, but also exhausting.

Bob’s website is a great place to look, even if one doesn’t have the bucks, since we can indeed learn what is out there, and possibly what is the best. If one has the money, then do not hesitate as all the comparison shopping has already been done, and the bargain is in the time and sweat spared searching for the best. When it comes to a BOB, especially Bob’s Big BOB, we should remind ourselves that the more we know, the less we need to carry, and the older we get, the less we can carry. Instead of working harder, we gotta work smarter. So then, what is in the bag?Continue reading“Ready Made Resources Ultimate BOB Versus a Home-Built BOB, by Tunnel Rabbit”

November 2022 in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover gold’s performance, and the factors that affected gold prices.

What Did Gold Do in November

Gold started the month around $1,640 an ounce.  After dipping slightly to $1,630, prices powered $145 higher to the $1,775 area, leaving the $1,685 support level in the dust. Prices leaked lower in the third week of November, but held above the $1735 support line that signifies the floor gold must respect to signal a new short-term bull run. Prices regained lost ground to end the month above $1,770 an ounce.

Factors Affecting Gold This Month

THE FED

The Fed continued to call the shots in November. Markets took solace in an apparent change in trajectory for future rate hikes. Fed officials have signaled that next month’s rate hike with be 50 basis points instead of 75 bp, with markets presuming that the same will hold true in February.
The Fed tempered the good news by telegraphing that the top interest rate will be near 5% instead of the 4.5% – 4.75% previously targeted. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard had a more hawkish prognostication, of course. He stated that interest rates would have to be higher than 5%, perhaps up to 7%, in order to stop stubbornly high inflation.

DOLLAR

The dollar lost some of its power in November, as easing inflation numbers softened Fed rate hike rhetoric. The greenback had its worst day since 2009 on November 10th, after US CPI was reported to have only risen 7.7%, down from 8.2% and lower than projections of 7.9%. Gold shot $40 higher, and the Dow closed an amazing 1,200 points higher.

The greenback failed to reassurt its dominance for the rest of the month, allowing the euro to return to above parity, and helping gold prices in other currencies.

INFLATION / RECESSION

Europe is also starting to see the first tiny signs that inflation may be topping out. Composite EU CPI showed a larger than expected drop to 10.0%, down from 10.6%. This fueled hopes that the ECB might hike rates less than previously expected at their next meeting. Energy and food shortages will keep prices high and economies faltering, however, miring the region in stagflation.Continue reading“November 2022 in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran”

A 2022 Retrospective: America’s Negatrends

In place of our regular Odds ‘n Sods column for this week, we are presenting a late-2022 summary listing of negative societal trends — what I call negatrends — and political machinations, with some apropos links.

Please pray daily that our nation collectively repents and returns to a moral and righteous path and that our government is again restrained and respects our rights. – JWR

Some Key Negatrends

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You can send your news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) Thanks!

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — November 30, 2022

Satirical novelist Jonathan Swift was born on November 30th, 1667.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present the final entry for Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 103 ends today — November 30th. We are now queuing articles for Round 104. So get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Preparedness Regrets and Priorities, by N.C.

We all have our own ideas of how much risk we’re running and what type of disaster seems the most likely threat. Your answer to that will depend largely on where you are. Doubtless, my focus would certainly be different if I lived in Germany and it would be different if I lived in Ukraine or in New Zealand. Since I live in the United States the one that has cost me more than a little sleep is the prospect of a civil war in the US. It used to be that this was an extreme subject, raised only rarely with those on your side (left and right both). Now? It’s a commonplace question/topic on news sources of all stripes and that change fills me with dread. I try to be upbeat and think that the violence and conflict might only be as bad as the labor unions and corporations (and their hired guns) in the times before the First World War. With an economic depression chaser. That’s me being optimistic.

Which is to say I am very inclined to agree that all signs point to “bad times ahead” but another question niggles at me: “when?” After all, survivalists have been around a long time now. Certainly, they had things to worry about in the 1950s. The very real possibility of thermonuclear war was nothing to sneeze at but that was 70 years ago. If you were in a position to prep back then you are staring down the business end of your 90s now. Similarly, I have read accounts of monks around 1000 AD who believed that end times were nigh if not here already. Those men had good reason to believe what they did but they are long gone. The old world is still turning.Continue reading“Preparedness Regrets and Priorities, by N.C.”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

This weekly column is a collection of short snippets: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. Note that we may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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We’ll start off today’s column with this from SurvivalBlog reader B.G.: 17-Year-Old Hero Swoops Into Action After Officer Is Shot Right in Front of Her – Unmatched Bravery.

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C.B. was the first of several readers to send this:  Vaccinated Americans a majority of COVID deaths for first time in August: analysis.

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Viral Documentary “Died Suddenly” Banned On Twitter- Stew Peters Responds.

Here is a link to the documentary, over at the Odysee video site: Died Suddenly.

JWR’s Commentary:  Well, we can now dismiss any hopes that Elon Musk-era Twitter would become a Free Speech platform.

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Over at The New American: Protests and Quarantine Camps: Covid Tyranny Is Roiling China.

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They’re Going to Try to Put Gun Ban Language Into HR8404.

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Some fundamentals, explained, for a general audience: How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse? (A hat tip to reader A.K. for the link.)

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”