Scot’s Product Review: SGK 440 Portable Power Solar Go Kit

This is something I wish I had owned back in my old days at the newspaper. We sometimes had to go places where there was no electricity and coming up with power could be a real hassle. As the years rolled by, the need for power got bigger and bigger. When I started, the cameras were mechanical and we shot film. By the end, everything was digital and required batteries, plus we had computers and cell phones too. We often drove around blowing fuses in cars with inverters plugged into the lighter socket in a desperate effort to keep stuff running. With the Solar Go Kit, I would have had fewer problems and lost much of my fear of electron deprivation. Preppers may well face the same issues that my guys had when working in disaster areas and needed power for their gear.

The Solar Go Kit SGK 440 is a compact, though somewhat heavy, combination of batteries, power analyzer, chargers, inverter, and power connectors that should allow you to keep many of your electrics operational in most any situation. It is packaged in a Pelican 1520 case that measures (in rounded numbers) 20x16x7.5 inches. The case itself comes in at under 1.5 pounds; however, once we stuff all the goodies in, it hits 46 pounds, according to my bathroom scale. The bulk (26 pounds) of the weight comes from the two 22 amp hour 12-volt absorbed glass mat (AGM) batteries that are the heart of the system.

The kit goes for $789.99. The tested unit had some extras–a twin USB outlet and four of the superb Anderson Power Poles. These options add $30 for the USB and $36 for the Power Poles. Note that the inverter has a USB outlet as well as 120 AC, so you could get by without the optional USB port. The Power Poles are widely used in the amateur radio world and are highly reliable and versatile connects for 12-volt loads.

The Go Kit I reviewed came with a rigid 20-watt solar panel that weighs about 4.6 pounds and is 17x17x1 inches in size. Unfortunately, the manufacturer of the panel dropped this size from its offerings and now SolarGoKit is looking for a replacement at a reasonable cost and size. They do offer the PowerFilm R21, which is somewhat unique in that it rolls up and can actually fit inside the Pelican case. This feature makes it costly though at $289.99, but it is hard to beat the compactness. Another option might be one of the folding panels you can find on Amazon. Just be sure to get enough capacity to get current back into the batteries fast enough.

Everything in the kit is solidly constructed. The batteries and some of the components are mounted beneath the panel secured in the bottom half of the Pelican. The AC charger, inverter, power analyzer, and four outlets with Anderson Power Poles are mounted on the panel, accessible when the case is opened. The charger and inverter plug into the Power Poles, and if they are not being used could be disconnected and other equipment plugged into their spots. On the left side of the case is a waterproof plug for a solar panel input, while on the right side is a waterproof 12-volt cigarette lighter-type plug and a waterproof twin USB outlet. The inverter has two AC outlets and an additional USB plug. All in all, this is a lot of versatility in a small package.

I was very impressed with the build quality and choice of components, which I expected as the owner of SolarGoKit.com, Jim Thompson, has a background in aerospace engineering. All of the electrical connections are well made, properly crimped or soldered, then covered with heat shrink wrap to protect them. The external connectors are waterproofed, and the case is a Pelican, which is one of the best carry cases you can get. It is waterproof and so airtight that you get a valve to equalize the pressure to enable you to open it if you change altitudes. There are perforations made in the case for the external connectors, however, and Thompson warns you not to sink it in water; it should, however, stand up to rain and humidity just fine.

The AGM batteries he uses are one of the better things to come along in battery technology. They hit the market in the 70’s and just keep getting better. Their huge advantage over regular batteries is that the acid that reacts with the lead in the battery to make electricity is held in a fiberglass mat so that it can’t leak out of the battery, unlike the one you will probably find in your car. Those batteries are called flooded or wet cell batteries, and they literally have a pool of acid waiting to spill if the case is cracked or tipped. You have to monitor them as they eventually need to have water added to replace that which evaporates. Then there is the fact that they vent hydrogen gas when charged. That’s the stuff that made the airship Hindenburg explode back before WWII.

An AGM battery shouldn’t leak, even if you hold it upside down, and unless charged improperly it vents little gas. While AGM’s should not vent much in the way of hydrogen gas, it is still recommended to charge them in an open area with good air circulation. As long as it is treated right, it won’t lose much if any of the water in the battery that keeps the acid liquid and reacting with the lead. You find AGM’s in uninterruptible power supplies for computers, motorcycles, alarm systems, and most anyplace that needs a battery you can essentially forget about and use in odd positions. They generally have a 5 to 10 year life expectancy. The primary drawback of AGM’s is higher cost.

You get two options for recharging the batteries in the Go Kit. The first is the built-in 1.5 amp charger that runs off 120 volts. The charger was chosen for its compact size so that it would fit in the case, but be advised that you could charge the batteries at a higher rate than 1.5 amps. I spent some time researching AGM’s, and it looks as if the two 22 amp hour batteries in the Go Kit could safely be charged at 10 amps, which would speed things up a bit. If you do decide to use a larger charger, you need to be sure that it, like the built-in one, is designed to handle AGM batteries. It needs to be a smart three-stage charger that begins at a higher voltage, called the bulk charge rate, and then slows down after the battery hits about 80% of capacity. It then switches to the absorption rate and takes it to 85-95% of capacity and finally switches to the float rate to finish it off and maintain it. If your charger simply tries to stuff electricity back in as fast as possible, you run the risk of overheating the battery and shortening its life. Most smart chargers can be left connected to the battery to maintain it at 100% for long term while standard chargers will simply toast your battery. I’ve been there and done that.

Even though you could charge the batteries faster with a bigger, heavier external charger, chances are if you have access to utility power, speed won’t be so critical, so you could get by without a bigger charger. It might be more of a concern if you expect to use a generator.

The specs for the batteries used in the kit say that you will get 200 charge cycles if you use 100% of the charge. Running a battery flat is a really bad idea, so don’t do it. You will get 500 cycles if you drain them 50% and 1,200 if you only pull them down 30%.

One of the very smart features of this kit is the inclusion of the GT Power RC 130A Power Analyzer Battery Consumption Performance Monitor. This lets you keep tabs on the voltage of the batteries as well as how many watts you are using. It can show how many watt hours have been consumed, which will tell you how much of the total capacity of the batteries is left. The unit resets to zero every time you power down, so you have to remember how much power you used in each session between charges. When it hits 250 watts used, you should stop using it and begin charging, unless there are no other options in a crisis.

If you aren’t going to use the kit, you should store it fully charged. That’s true of any battery. It is recommended that you recharge it every six months. You could also keep it on the charger at all times to be sure it is always at 100%, but that might compromise battery life a bit. I’ve seen arguments in both directions about keeping batteries on a maintenance charge, but it makes sense that if you might need a battery unexpectedly you would want to keep it on a maintenance charge even if that is at the cost of some battery life. On the other hand, if you expect to have warning before you need it and are diligent and won’t forget, then the every six months plan seems like a winner and is what Thompson recommends.

Try to store and use anything with batteries in moderate temperatures. They don’t like heat any more than I do. Cooler temperatures slow down the self-discharge rate, which is how fast any battery goes dead just from sitting. However, on the other hand, lower temperatures reduce available capacity. Even though it is contained in the fiberglass mats, there is water in the battery and it seems best to me to not let it freeze. Overall, somewhere around 70 degrees is probably the happiest place for both me and an AGM battery.

The kit gives you three types of power– USB, which is 5 volts; a cigarette light socket; and Anderson Power Pole outlets for 12 volts, plus an inverter that converts the 12 volts into 120 AC. It provides a steady 400 watts of power and can handle brief surges of up to 800 watts. Computing what you can do with the 12 volt and USB outlets is fairly simple. Just find out how many watts your device uses (or its battery holds) and divide that into the number of watts the kit can provide.

The two 12-volt batteries in the kit each provide 22 amp hours of electricity. Work is figured in watts, and watts are amps times volts, so you get 264 watts per battery or 528 watts total. Don’t forget, however, that we don’t want to go below 50% of the battery, so let’s round it off to an easy number like 250 watts. That’s a pretty fair amount of electricity. My tablet computer’s battery takes about 20 watts to fully charge, so this kit could charge it more than 10 times, which would keep me going for a long time.

Figuring out what we can do with the AC power gets more complex as we are dealing with a higher voltage. Because math makes my head hurt, I often use an online calculator to sort out how much runtime I can get from a battery/inverter combination. With this kit, if I were to fully load up the inverter with 400 watts, say four laptop computers or some other combination of devices, I would only get about half an hour of run time. That’s not so great, but it’s still better than not having the tools. If I were more reasonable, I could stretch that out a lot longer.

To be most efficient, however, you should try to avoid using the inverter. The process of making 12 volts DC turn into 120 volts AC uses up energy that is lost in the process. It is sort of like friction. If you can stick with USB and 12 volt equipment, you will get much more run time. I have discovered that many things I have with power adapters can actually run from 12 volts, so skipping the adapter and making a cable with Power Pole connectors can save a lot of energy. If you need to make light, there are a bunch of 12-volt lights on Amazon.

Now that we have an idea about all the great options for getting the juice out of the Go Kit, we have to now consider getting it back in. Every time we take a watt out, we have to put it back and beyond chief issue of finding the power to put in, we also have issues with the time it takes. If you charge them too quickly, batteries won’t last long. That won’t be an issue with the 20 watt solar panel or the 1.5 amp charger that came with the test kit, but they both take a while to replace the used electricity.

Figuring time to recharge is more math work, alas. Since amps times volts equals watts, the AC charger will put about 18 watts back into the batteries in an hour. If we have pulled out 250 watts, then we will need something like 14 hours to get them back in. If we have a bigger charger, like a 10 amp one, then we could charge much faster and get most of the charge back in three hours. One of the problems about batteries, though, is that the last few percent of charge need to be done slowly, so an absolutely full charge can take 10 or more hours even with a bigger charger. The advantage of the bigger charger has to do with being able to quickly get the battery back to 85% or so.

The solar panel gets more complex because of the vagaries of sunlight. Clouds are a colossal pain. The sun also moves around a lot, and if the panel isn’t aimed well it loses efficiency. Then there is the night thing. With the 20-watt panel provided in the test kit, we should be able to recharge our half used batteries in 13 hours, but we don’t get that many hours of sunlight in a day. In fact, according to the solar power industry, most of us only get an average of four to six hours of sunlight a day strong enough to run solar panels at their rated output. A panel may produce power the rest of the day, but it will be at reduced efficiency. Throw in some clouds and rain and you won’t be getting much power at all.

If you were to get a bigger panel, however, you could charge in less time. A 100-watt one should do pretty well, particularly if you can keep it running while using the unit during the day.

One final idea on charging would be to connect it to the cigarette lighter socket in your car. You could plug into the solar input connector or one of the Power Pole plugs inside the case. This isn’t the best way to charge it, but if you are mobile, it would pack some watts back in, taking advantage of some of the gas you are already using.

To use the 120-volts outlets on the inverter or the AC charger, you have to have the case open, which means using it in sheltered location. That’s a good thing as 120 can be dangerous and you don’t want to use it in the rain.

The only thing I can think of changing is that I would have liked to be able to access the fuses from the top panel. They are underneath it; should you blow one, you will need to open the unit up. I would also add some sort of carrying case for the solar panel and, due to back trouble, buy a folding luggage cart for it to ride on.

I’m very impressed with the kit. They offer a similar one with one battery for $40 less, but unless you have an issue with the weight of the kit, I would buy the one with two batteries. Thompson can also customize kits for special purpose, such as running medical gear, and he offers a version for amateur radio operators that puts out the 13.8 volts that a lot of radio gear desires.

– SurvivalBlog Field Gear Editor, Scot Frank Eire

Pat Cascio’s Product Review: Cold Steel/Rawles Voyager Limited Edition

Disclaimer: Neither Jim Rawles or Hugh J. Latimer asked me to do this article, nor did Lynn Thompson from Cold Steel. I received an e-mail flyer on this limited edition folder and requested a sample for review. No one involved in this project, including myself, are profiting from the sale of this folding knife. All proceeds are going to charity!

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The Cold Steel Voyager folder is one of the best-selling folders in the Cold Steel stable of knives. It’s always in demand. I really like the Tri-Ad locking mechanism on this line of folders. It’s super strong, to be sure. You can see how the Voyager has been brutally torture tested by going to the Cold Steel website and viewing their videos. It’s amazing the testing that is done on this line of folders. Lynn Thompson puts his money where his mouth is. I’ve tested several of the Voyager folders in the past for articles, and I walked away totally blown away. My torture testing didn’t come any where near what Cold Steel did in their testing. Still, I was more than a little impressed with this line of folders.

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A quick look at the Rawles Voyager XL folder is in order. The knife only weighs in at 7.8 oz, and considering the size of the knife, this is a light-weight, to be sure. The blade thickness is 4mm, and the blade length is 5 1/2 inches. This hummer is big. The OD green Griv-Ex handle scales were specified by Jim Rawles, and I love the aggressive checking texture. It will allow the knife to stay in your hand under any weather conditions. The Voyager is very light and fast in the hand, too!

The Rawles Voyager was made to Jim’s specifications, and it also has heat-treated 6061 Aluminum liners. This Voyager also has the new American CTS XHP Carpenter’s steel blade. (The regular line-up of Voyagers doesn’t use this steel.) The blade is a Tanto-style, which I love, and it is black DLC coated to fend off the elements. As mentioned, this folder has the Tri-Ad lock, one of the strongest if not the strongest locking mechanism on a folding knife, and it was designed by custom knife maker Andrew Demko, who is also foregoing any profits on the sale of this folder.

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I like the ambidextrous thumb studs on the blade for rapid opening. However, I found I can easily “flick” the blade open, with very little effort and do it very fast! There is also included a spare pocket/clothing clip, so you can carry the knife in the left pocket, if you are a southpaw. The Voyager comes with one clip attached for carry in the right front pocket, but it only takes a minute or two to remove that clip and use the other clip on the other side of the folder.

The blade has survivalblog.com stamped on it as well as Jim Rawles’ signature with the word “Voyager” on the blade as well. There is a lanyard hole towards the butt of the handle, and that’s always a nice touch if using a knife over water. The blade is partially– 50% of it– serrated. Having this feature on a knife meant for survival is never a bad idea. You will also note that the blade is only sharpened on one side– the logo side. This makes the knife much easier to re-sharpen, and it also gives the edge much more strength.

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Since this is an XL Voyager model, you can grip the knife up close toward the blade, or you can move your hand further to the rear of the handle, giving you a couple more inches of reach, which is something that can be important when using a knife as a self-defense tool. Like all Cold Steel knives, this baby came hair-popping sharp out of the box; I expect no less from Cold Steel. I’ve said for years that they set the gold standard when it comes to sharp knives, and I stand by that statement.

I wasn’t about to torture test my Rawles Voyager. As I said, I’ve tested this line-up before and have walked away impressed. I’m not at all sure I will carry this sample since it’s a limited edition. It might just go into my knife collection.

For more details on this limited edition folder, you can go to ltspecpro.com and be sure to pick one up. Retail is only $115.99, and this is an instant collectible – a limited edition. Keep in mind that no one involved in this project is profiting from the sale of this knife. All profits are going to charity!

– Senior Product Review Editor, Pat Cascio

Recipe of the Week: Peanut Butter Hummus, by A.S.

How would you like a quick homemade dip for those dinner guests that arrive suddenly or a quick, healthy dip for your family that is nutritious, easy, and healthy to boot? This will take just 15 minutes of your time and make 1kilo/2.2 pounds of delicious dip ready to eat with carrot or celery sticks.

Note : If you are cutting the unhealthy carbs from junk, such as deep fried takeout, this is an ideal alternative.

Ingredients:

  • 2 cups canned chick peas (garbanzo beans), drained until all the “froth” from the water is gone
  • 6 Tbsp peanut butter (crunchy or smooth)
  • 3 Tbsp lemon juice (bottled lemon juice is fine )
  • 1 tsp ground paprika
  • 1 tsp ground cumin
  • 6 cloves of fresh garlic
  • 3 Tbsp Greek yogurt
  • 1 tsp ground pepper
  • 1 tsp ground rock salt
  • 1/4 cup olive oil

Directions:

  1. Combine all the ingredients in a food processor or blender and mix in the olive oil.
  2. Do short bursts of your blender till the chick peas are no longer whole and the whole mix is firm but not runny.
  3. Sprinkle crushed peanuts over the dip and serve!

Once blended, you can taste test your dip and add more lemon juice or salt according to taste; some olive oil rises to the surface after a day and the garlic brings out the texture and taste of all this spicy Mediterranean dip. You can even use this for meats as a garnish as well. To add more variety, I add some chili and other herbs to give a variation, so enjoy.

It will last in the fridge for up to 7 days (though it never lasts long in our fridge)!

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Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? Please send it via e-mail. Thanks!

Letter Re: A Year’s Supply of Food/Cooking Oil Alternatives

Dear Hugh,

With regard to the discussions about a renewable source of cooking oil, bio-diesel, and perhaps lubricating oil as well, I’ve often thought peanuts (aka, “goober peas”) may be a viable option for those of us who live in the south. Obviously, they’re not as visible as sunflowers, and statistics at this website seem to suggest that they produce a higher yield of bio-diesel than rapeseed.

I’ve read bits and pieces about backyard peanut growing, but I suspect large scale cultivation may be necessary for meaningful oil production. At any rate, their obscure growing nature, nutritional value (including protein), and possible light lubricating oil production may qualify them as a survival crop worth examining. If anyone has any experience with small-scale peanut farming, I would certainly be interested in hearing the story!

Best Wishes – SH in TX

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague.” – Marcus Tullius Cicero

“For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.”

Notes for Sunday – August 30, 2015

August 30, 2014 is the 95th birthday of Joachim Rønneberg, a hero of the Norwegian resistance during World War II. His exploits earned him the War Cross Wtth Sword, Norway’s highest military honor. In April 2013, Rønneberg was presented with a Union Jack during a ceremony at the Special Operations Executive (SOE) monument in London to mark 70 years since the successful Gunnerside heavy water plant sabotage mission.

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Today, we present another entry for Round 60 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $10,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools, and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  4. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul pmags 30rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt. (An equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions.),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A Model 120 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $340 value),
  7. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  8. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  9. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  4. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  5. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  6. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  7. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  8. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
  9. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  10. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 Lifestraws (a $200 value).

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  6. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 60 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Forecasting Disaster Part 2, by ShepherdFarmerGeek

The Unfolding Disaster

There is another category of crisis that can be forecast in a sense, and that is the “unfolding disaster”.

Some crises don’t just strike out of the blue one day; they begin and gather steam. Keeping an eye on national and global news, we can spot events that are clearly going to worsen and spread. We won’t be able to predict the exact day of the turning point or the milestones as they unfold, but it becomes obvious that something bad is dead ahead and there’s no getting out of it. Others may be in denial and frozen up by normalcy bias, but the studious prepper sees what is happening.

Hurricanes are a good example. We watch the news. We see one forming in the ocean. We know it might come our way, or it might not. We get ready for a hurricane, implementing the more disruptive protective measures only once it looks like it’s going to go through the neighborhood. When we first see the news, we might check our water and gasoline supply, and by the time it’s about to come ashore we’ve nailed the plywood over our windows. The closer it gets, the clearer the danger becomes.

Another example of this is our now-collapsing national economy. Simple mathematics says that accumulating enormous debts can’t go on forever. (“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” Herbert Stein’s Law) Some trends are unsustainable. Some can continue for far longer than anyone ever dreamed possible.

Sooner or later, so it seems, a turning point will be reached beyond which our economy will cease to function. That will be bad. We can see it coming. We just don’t really know when. However, the closer it gets, the clearer the danger will become, and the more specific our protective measures will be.

It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to see that undermining Constitutional government, the rule of law, and Biblical morality will eventually turn our country into a third-world powder keg of crises and breakdowns, ending in martial law or Civil War, unless of course some Black Swan event (or divine intervention) turns things in an unforeseen direction.

You and I know well that our country cannot murder 50,000,000+ babies, approve and promote sodomite rights and perversions (LGBTQXYZ… whatever…), and endanger Israel, empower and support their enemies, and attempt to divide the land and Jerusalem without incurring some divine judgment. This is an unfolding disaster and something bad is plainly coming.

The Sudden Disaster

Just this week I saw a headline that said if there were to be a huge solar EMP, we Earthlings might have as little as 12 hours’ notice to brace for impact.It makes me wonder how long a warning message might wend its way through the bowels of our federal bureaucracies before depositing a tepid warning before the American people? Regardless, I check on solar activity regularly and get email alerts. So, if something pops off, I’ve got a huge head start on the sheeple, time to circle the wagons, gas everything up, and gather the family.

This is a special case of the unfolding disaster. It’s one where you can see the avalanche has been triggered and you know you have just seconds before the snow arrives. It’s a Black Swan whose impact is delayed enough to give you a useful amount of time. The prepper here has a critical advantage: We learn something has popped off and, unlike most of the American population, we leap into knowledgeable, focused, functional action. We don’t freeze. We don’t panic. We don’t flail or stampede or pout. We have a plan for situations like this, and we coolly put that plan into action.

You’ve seen photos of refugees wading through floodwater, balancing a case of beer on something that floats or carrying off a pillowcase full of photos and memorabilia. That’s not going to be us!

To make use of the short interval provided by this type of incident, we need to keep a “weather eye” on the events of the day. We need to have most of our preps ready and done (so we’re generally ready for whatever may come). We need to have a clear, written step-by-step plan that everyone involved knows about. The more chaotic the situation, the more structured your plan must be.

What We CAN Do

  1. We can identify general “high threat” periods, when the likelihood of a disaster or crisis seems higher to us, based on observable factors. (These may be still highly subjective.) National holidays are good examples. We can take additional precautions during that time, and take the opportunity to review our preparations.
  2. We can identify the unfolding disaster– the slow-motion calamity that has already begun and is gathering steam. The closer it gets, the more detail can be seen (a photography metaphor!), and the better we’ll be able to prepare for the impact.
  3. We can identify the sudden disaster when something has snapped and is rapidly triggering other problems, giving us critical minutes or hours to respond ahead of the panicked masses.

We can not predict the future. Black Swans can take us by surprise. But, still, we have some hopeful and helpful strategies.

Is there anything else we can do? Yes. Definitely, yes!

“Trust in the Lord with all thine heart; and lean not unto thine own understanding. In all thy ways acknowledge him, and he shall direct thy paths.” – Proverbs 3:5-6

“In all thy ways acknowledge Him…” (Proverbs 3:5-6) means consulting God, including God, inviting God into every decision and every part of our lives as each day unfolds, “practicing the presence of God” as advocated by Brother Lawrence.

The corresponding promise of God is that when we include God in our day, not just once a day but in “all (our) ways”, He will “direct our path”. Think of it; the only person who actually knows in detail what is going to happen today, tomorrow, next month, and next year is offering to guide us through the maze of choices and challenges ahead. His providential hand will even anticipate our inevitable failures, bad choices, and shortcomings as He guides us from behind the scenes, if we will trust Him completely.

It doesn’t mean that nothing hard or bad will happen. We might still suffer and struggle, but God will be with us and guide us, and He will use it for good.

“And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose. ” (Romans 8:28) and

“Nay, in all these things we are more than conquerors through him that loved us. For I am persuaded, that neither death, nor life, nor angels, nor principalities, nor powers, nor things present, nor things to come, nor height, nor depth, nor any other creature, shall be able to separate us from the love of God, which is in Christ Jesus our Lord.” (Romans 8:37-39)

Certainly we must do what is wise; we must do our part to anticipate what seems likely, what seems needed, but we also seek and trust the hand of God more than own wisdom. (“…lean not on your own understanding…”) Its humility time; God knows best!

He wants us to de-stress, to focus on Him, to rest, to find our calm center of the storm in Him. We can be prepared and should be working diligently toward becoming better prepared, but it must happen at the same time we are trusting God. If you’ve never yet begun a relationship with Jesus, now’s the time! He loved you enough to die your death on the cross so that you could be reconciled to God. Trust him! Read Colossians 1:19-22 and John 3:16.

Preparations do not protect. Practically everything we’ve collected can disappear in a house fire or a brazen theft. A decade of prepping can be undone in a heartbeat, literally. A dozen things could steal our health without warning. We do have our part to do. We are responsible to make reasonable and wise preparations, and to build resilience into our lives. However, we cannot and should not depend on those provisions.

The only sane approach is this: trust God, and be prepared. They’re not mutually exclusive, you know. Believe me; keeping our eyes on Jesus is the harder of the two tasks, and it is the most important. We can have all the stuff, skills, and community, but if our minds and marriages and relationship with God fall apart we will be forfeiting the most valuable survival asset of all!

So diligently make your preparations, build resiliency, and flexibility and depth to your resources. The times are bad. There’s no denying that, and September bears watching, but how will it affect you? No one knows! However, there is One who does know, and He is making you an amazing offer– to guide you through.

You’d be crazy to pass up an offer like that! Trust God. Be Prepared. We can do both.

“…for we have no might against this great company that cometh against us; neither know we what to do: but our eyes are upon thee.” – 2 Chronicles 20:12

Letter Re: Scot’s Product Review: Burris 2-7xx32mm Handgun Scope on the Mexican Mauser

Good morning, Hugh,

In reading Scot’s excellent review of the Burris 2-7X Extended Eye Relief rifle scope he mentioned using a ballistics program to determine a 200 yard zero which would also allow hits within four inches of point of aim at 250 yards. Inadvertently, I think, Scot broached the topic of Point Blank Range with that sentence.

If one watches movies and television dramas, one probably believes Point Blank Range to be several inches to a few feet in front of a firearm’s muzzle. It is not. The definition of Point Blank Range is:

“The maximum distance at which a center sighting hold on a target of specified size will produce a strike on that target from the muzzle to that maximum distance.”

It is, of course, dependent upon bullet trajectory and will vary based on the firearm and/or ammunition employed and the target. Determining point blank range is simple using ballistics software, an ammunition manufacturer’s trajectory chart, or it can be determined by actual measurement on the range.

Regarding trajectory, here’s a question: If a rifleman is standing on a perfectly flat plane not subject to curvature of the earth holding a firearm parallel to that flat plane, accompanied by an observer who holds a bullet at muzzle height identical to the one being fired, and the observer releases the bullet at the same instant the fired bullet exits the muzzle, which bullet strikes the ground first?

They will both strike the ground simultaneously because gravity is a constant and acts on both bullets identically. The only difference is one bullet contacts the earth at the observer’s feet and the other at a distance down range. Where the fired bullet strikes the ground is determined solely by velocity – gravity begins acting on it immediately after it leaves the muzzle, dragging it downward at an acceleration rate of 32 feet per second for each second it falls, and it will continue to accelerate downward until it either reaches terminal velocity (gravitational acceleration is balanced out by air resistance) or it reaches the ground and stops falling. The faster the bullet moves , velocity allows bullet to travel horizontally farther before the downward acceleration of gravity brings it into contact with the ground; it’s completely a function of horizontal distance traveled per unit of time because gravity is a constant force exerted over time.

To move point of impact farther away than several hundred feet requires the firearm’s muzzle be elevated to release the bullet at an upward angle to counteract the effect of gravity. Since gravity is a constant force it still begins acting on the bullet as soon as it leaves the muzzle, so the upward angle of the bullet’s path soon begins to turn downward, eventually reaching the ground. The path is usually depicted as an arc, but with one significant difference: past the trajectory midpoint – the highest point of the bullet’s arc– the downward arc steepens because bullets slow due to air resistance the farther they travel, requiring more time to cover a particular distance, and gravity is a constant force. The slower the bullet travels the steeper the downward trajectory curve.

For my example I’ll use a common 8.5X11.0 inch sheet of copy or printer paper as a target, which allows shots 5.5 inches high or low to strike the paper, and generic 5.56X45 ammunition. With 55 grain projectiles and a 20 inch barrel length, published velocity from one ammunition manufacturer is 3240 feet per second. Bullets have a ballistic coefficient – labeled “BC” in the trajectory tables – which references the shape of each particular bullet and the associated air resistance, necessary for precise trajectory computation but for now we can ignore it.

According to the manufacturer’s data tables, this bullet and velocity allows the convenience of a “dual zero”, in this particular case a point-of-aim zero at 40 yards produces another point-of-aim zero at 200 yards, with a trajectory midpoint of 1.4 inches above the point-of-aim zero point occuring at 125 yards. The usual “line of sight above bore distance” for iron sights or scopes is about 1.5 inches, so we’ll use that. A 1.4 inch midpoint height means the bullet not quite reaches line of sight at its trajectory midpoint.

Using the same ballistic data and our 8.5X11.0 inch paper as a target, a 310 yard point-of-aim zero produces a midpoint high of 5.2 inches above point-of-aim zero, which occurs at 175 yards. At 370 yards the bullet is 5.5 inches below point-of-aim zero. That means if this rifle and ammunition combination is zeroed at 310 yards and aimed at the center of our 11-inch high paper the bullet will strike somewhere on the paper at any distance from the muzzle to 370 yards, so 370 yards is the Point Blank Range for this particular rifle/ammunition combination. To hit a target 11 inches in height at any distance from the muzzle out to 370 yards with this rifle/ammunition combination one needs only to aim at the center of the 11 inch target.

Given the energy level of 55 grain projectiles, and the effect of crosswind, 370 yards is probably a bit too far. Most users of 5.56X45 ammunition would select a 250 yard point-of-aim zero, which produces a point blank range of 320 yards on our 11 inch paper target, and a trajectory midpoint of just under 3 inches above point-of-aim. At 300 yards this combination is 3.6 inches below point-of-aim, which shows how quickly the trajectory drops as the bullet slows – in the 20 yards between 300 and 320 it falls just over two inches, and that two inches puts it at the very bottom edge of the 11-inch paper target.

Another point – many misunderstand the mechanics of shooting uphill or downhill. It is often assumed that a rifle zeroed at a horizontal distance needs to be aimed higher if the target is uphill, or lower if it’s downhill. Remember, gravity is a constant – what matters most is not the distance uphill or downhill but the horizontal distance the bullet travels. An uphill target 300 yards away by rangefinder and 100 yards higher in elevation is only 282 yards distant horizontally, meaning gravity acts on the bullet for 282 yards, not 300; “holding over” to compensate for “shooting uphill” will result in a miss. To score a center hit one would need to aim slightly lower. The same gravity rules apply when shooting downhill. (On mild inclines and/or at close distances the effect is negligible, but on smaller targets or at greater distances the difference is enough to determine whether your dinner plate is full or empty).

Selecting a target size different from our 8.5X11.0 inch paper would result in a different point blank range, and requiring a different point-of-aim zero distance as well. With deer, for example, a common game animal, the vital area in which to place a heart/lung shot is usually described as an 8-inch circle. This would require a point-of-aim zero at a closer distance since the radius of an 8-inch circle is 4 inches; using the same rifle/ammunition combination as above (not that 55 grain 5.56 ammunition is suitable for deer), a 230 yard POA zero produces a 288 yard point blank range with a trajectory midpoint of 2.3 inches occuring at 140 yards. Allowing for normal error would suggest a closer point blank range – approximately 265 yards would produce a drop below point-of-aim of about 2.4 inches, nearly matching the trajectory high point of 2.3 inches, keeping all shots well within the critical 8-inch circle all the way out to 265 yards.

Point blank range works the same on every firearm/ammunition combination, from .22 rimfires to cannons. The advantage of knowing the point blank range of one’s firearm and ammunition combination allows successful shooting at unknown range targets without guessing at distance or the “hold over” required to score a hit. Competitive shooters compute the trajectory of their loads precisely because points scores are at stake, and winners are often decided by small fractions of an inch. Those of us who go afield don’t need that level of precision, but knowing where your bullets will strike at distance could be the difference between meat for the pot and opening another can of beans.

N.K.

Odds ‘n Sods:

‘Production Versus Plunder’ Part 22 – The Code of Production

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A nap a day could save your life, research suggests – D.S.

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Smith & Wesson investors are celebrating today – D.S.
How is it that S&W can be doing so well and Colt is in bankruptcy?

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Though the author of this piece isn’t as resourceful as many preppers I know: Food items you should never buy in bulk – K.C.

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Cattle rustling Marion County style – T.J.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“And Pilate, when he had called together the chief priests and the rulers and the people, said unto them, Ye have brought this man unto me, as one that perverteth the people: and, behold, I, having examined him before you, have found no fault in this man touching those things whereof ye accuse him:” Luke 23:13-14 (KJV)

Notes for Saturday – August 29, 2015

August 29th is a mournful day, as we remember the anniversary of the death of “The voice of him that crieth in the wilderness, Prepare ye the way of the LORD, make straight in the desert a highway for our God.” – Isaiah 40:3. John, the Baptist, who heralded the first coming of our Lord and stood true to his belief in the face of death, was beheaded on this day in 29AD.

In 1862, the Battle of Bull Run in Virginia began, along with the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing.

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Today, we present another entry for Round 60 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $10,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools, and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  4. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul pmags 30rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt. (An equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions.),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A Model 120 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $340 value),
  7. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  8. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  9. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  4. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  5. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  6. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  7. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  8. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
  9. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  10. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 Lifestraws (a $200 value).

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  6. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 60 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Forecasting Disaster Part 1, by ShepherdFarmerGeek

Have you heard? There’s a lot of speculation lately that we might see downright apocalyptic events in mid-to-late September. I have to admit; it’s an impressive list of events, prophecies, and trends, and I’ve been encouraging my family and friends to top off their preparations in anticipation of what might happen. My “threat level” assessment is high.

However, this is also an opportunity to revisit this whole idea of “projecting” trends and “forecasting” events, so that we are not tripped up or misled by the limitations of that process. Rather, we should focus on what truly is important, especially if we think something dramatic really is about to happen. Let’s take a look.

Wheel of Doom

Disasters are, by very definition, events that catastrophically impact one or more of the four basic categories of provision– security, shelter, water, and food. We are highly motivated to predict them. Depending on the event, it could be critical to have an hour’s notice, a day’s notice, or a year’s heads-up that something very bad is about to happen.

Regardless, no matter how much we study and analyze, our ability to actually “foresee” the future is pretty much zero. We can’t see even one second into the future, much less one week or one year. I’ve been prepping for 15+ years, and in those years I have seen many very disturbing predictions come and go, most of them based on patterns of events, or convergences of events, or trends, or political threats and warnings.

NONE of those things came to pass, thank God! (So, I’ve had many more years to be prepared for the huge crises that I’m p-r-e-t-t-y sure are coming, I just don’t know when.) Well, what went wrong?

The Black Swan

Why aren’t we more successful in predicting disasters or crises in the U.S.? How is it that “Black Swans” (the term popularized by Nassim Taleb in his book and articles) keep catching us by surprise?

1. The Dilution Effect

A trend may look influential, but for it to affect our country is a huge undertaking.

  • There are more than 360,000,000 people in the U.S., with every language and culture under heaven represented.
  • The U.S. covers 379,000,000 square miles.
  • It boasts a $15+ trillion GDP in an incredibly diverse variety of businesses and industries.

2. The Law of Unforeseen Consequences

The Law of Unforeseen Consequences is produced by factors such as:

  • Systems of systems. There is a high level of complexity in our world these days. (“Engineers will tell you complexity increases as the square of the subsystems involved…” – Ol’ Remus)
  • Chaotic connections, where connections between industries, persons, economies, and organizations are disproportionate, exponential, or synergistic, irregular, or modified by factors we are unaware of. Alternatively, connections we expected from a convergence don’t happen because there actually isn’t any overlap. Unexpected dependencies, leverage points.
  • A seemingly small event that triggers a cascade, or branching cascade, of numerous low-probability events whose connections may have been completely unknown, resulting in an unforeseen high-impact net effect. Invisible connections we aren’t aware of that trigger unexpected events.
  • Events that unfold faster than we anticipated or even thought possible.
  • Some trends cannot be extrapolated because they only look like trends, but may actually be truly random events, or only a small part of a more complex, longer-term process (as in longer than a human lifespan).
  • Illusion of control, where persons, leaders, and organizations fall for the deception that “control” is possible when it often is not.
  • Transformative, game-changing inventions that alter the balance, timing, or direction of a trend in positive or negative ways. These include “sci-fi”-type inventions that have actually been fielded or are about to be fielded. We don’t know what we don’t know.
  • High-impact, low-frequency risks that were either accidentally overlooked or dismissed without consideration because they did not fit into our tidy model or expectations.

3. Limitations of Humanity

The limitations of humanity include the following:

  • Fickle human nature in wide variations (some not immediately obvious) in upbringing, education, mood, experiences, resistance to change, tradition, et cetera. Even bad people disagree with each other, resist cooperating, and have their own agendas. There are no perfect conspiracies.
  • Bureaucratic inertia that slows, delays, and resists directives from above simply as a function of the bureaucracy’s size and (lack of streamlined) organization.
  • Our unfortunate dependence on statistics (or public opinion polls) without understanding or realization of how easily statistics can be manipulated or skewed. Probability assessments vary from person to person and are more subjective than we’d like to believe.
  • It’s human nature to generally focus on the wrong threats and incorrectly assess personal and national risks. Part of this is due to poor mathematical and statistical education these days (as evidenced by the popularity of gambling). This is like the preppers who buy all the awesome firearm toys but who have no reliable way to purify water, underestimating the damage and disruption that simple waterborne illness can cause in an emergency situation.
  • Propaganda from insiders with ulterior motives or undisclosed incentives who present themselves as authorities. (They’re forgetting “No statement should be believed because it is made by an authority.” – Robert Heinlein) We naturally want to trust others, but the others can lie. If you haven’t read the little book How Do You Kill 11 Million People?, you really need to buy this book. (Hint: You lie. Lies are that powerful.)
  • We get gamed or stampeded into making choices we otherwise wouldn’t, because of psychological manipulation in the press and advertising. They have it down to a science. Never underestimate human stupidity, or malice.
  • Linguistic imprecision between people discussing issues or making decisions, disagreement among experts, elements that are in fact unmeasurable– these and more make predicting the future foggy if not completely impossible!

4. Our Incomplete Understanding of Physical Processes

Our incomplete understanding, especially about the initial conditions and physical processes of weather, tectonics, volcanism, ecosystem dynamics, solar processes, human mass psychology, economics and more, prevent us from having the ability to forecast future behavior. Yes, even after all these years, science doesn’t know everything. What disasters/crises do we think are impossible? Are they really impossible? (“All things are possible until they are proved impossible – and even the impossible may only be so, as of now.” – Pearl S. Buck)

5. The Unseen Hand of Satan and Those Participating in His Conspiratorial Multi-generational Plotting

I’m sorry, but there really is an evil plan to destroy the world. The plan encompasses diverse persons and organizations, many of whom are completely unaware they are being co-opted in a demonic conspiracy, unaware of the invisible connections coordinating their actions.

6. The Unseen Hand of Our Sovereign God

Our sovereign God will have the last say and always gets His way. Remember that. Few are the prepper novels, disaster movies, and survival reality shows that ever include or anticipate that God has a plan for our individual lives and the course of human history. I call it the “God Factor”; it’s an idea we espoused during our college Risk board game marathons that referred to the unpredictable, uncontrollable, unstoppable intervention of the only living, sovereign, almighty Creator God of the Bible.

Evil people will make their little plans with grandiose expectations for world government, a world economy, and the suppression of human freedom. They can plan all they want, but God gets the last word. (We should never fear the machinations of the world, no matter how dark the day.) This is vital to remember.

So, sure, we try hard to get a glimpse of what’s coming, but it seems we can only recognize “precursor events” in retrospect. (Hindsight is 20/20.) To our frustration, mankind gets blindsided again and again.

These “precursor” events and apparently significant “convergences” are happening all the time in our highly complex, mobile, and violent world. Coincidences happen. What they mean is the big question. After many years of seeing coincidences and convergences come and go, some of them quite dramatic, I can say they clearly don’t always imply disaster is imminent!

However, instead of accurately foretelling a disaster’s character and timing, we’ve been able to do something nearly as useful! By playing out the scenarios for the myriad different disasters, we have come to an encouraging and useful conclusion: the preparations for one scenario have a lot of overlap with the preparations for other disasters. Being prepared for the factors that overlap gives us a good foundation for virtually any foreseeable event. This is the basic premise behind prepping.

The Basic Premise Behind Prepping

Prepping is simply a practical, wise response to the uncertainties and contingencies of life. We can imagine which scenarios are possible or even likely (i.e., the “Wheel of Doom”). Also, we can accumulate supplies and knowledge to cover those. We are prepping based on extrapolations of our current knowledge, trends, historical record, and our knowledge of basic human needs. Unless we receive a divine heads up, we’re not going to know about an impending Black Swan, but we can use the general principles of prepping to be reasonably prepared.

Short of having an angel with a flaming sword suddenly appear at the foot of our bed and deliver a prophetic message from God (and there may actually be some authentic divine warnings relevant to this very September that I mentioned), we have huge limitations on knowing what’s going to happen next.

Read on about the disaster and what we can do in Part 2.