Category: Emerging Threats

Letter Re: An Approaching Tsunami for Hedge Fund and Muni Bond Insurers

Dear Mr. Rawles, Would you buy stock in Allstate Insurance or Farmer’s Insurance if you knew a tsunami was going to hit the entire East Coast? If you had foreknowledge of such a catastrophe, you certainly wouldn’t put your money into insurance companies, because no insurance company could cover an event that huge. I believe that something analogous is what is now happening in the financial markets. Savvy investors are getting out of financial insurance companies that may be asked to cover huge losses projected to occur this year. These Wall Street companies insure pension funds, CDOs, hedge funds, and …


How to Win with Asymmetric Warfare, by Robert R.

As preface, I would like to say that I abhor violence and believe killing should only be done when absolutely necessary, but if things in America ever deteriorate to the point of national collapse, with murderous gangs of looters, or other violent oppressive groups wandering the land, it might be worth going on the offensive instead of sitting tight and hoping for the best. Even in the most well-defended retreat, a dedicated group of aggressors has all the time in the world to devise an attack strategy that could defeat you. They could rain .50 caliber rounds on you from …


The Countrywide Bailout and the Macroeconomic Picture

As I mentioned a few days ago, Bank of America (BofA) is buying out troubled Countrywide Financial (a home mortgage lender) for more than $4 Billion, and taxpayers are going to help them finance the buyout. This is good news for Countrywide (whose CEO is being given a ludicrous $110 million going away present), but bad news for the economy as a whole, and for taxpayers. I should mention that it has been rumored that BofA felt obliged to acquire Countrywide, because the two firms had some large derivatives contracts, and if Countrywide had folded, BofA would have to write-off …


Letter Re: Thanks to Congress, Ethanol and Biofuel Mandates Cause Food Prices to Soar

Jim, You may have noted the article titled Thanks to Congress, Ethanol and Biofuel Mandates Cause Food Prices to Soar, before and I missed it. The article [by Dana Joel Gattuso a senior fellow at the National Center for Public Policy Research–a conservative think tank] is very interesting. I can’t vouch for the veracity of the report, or the organization, however, it doesn’t do anything to lessen my fears that any congressional involvement in the energy business only makes things worse. Here are a few scary quotes from the article: ” …ethanol requires enormous quantities of water, a valuable resource …


Letter Re: Preparedness Implications of the Global Food Shortages

Jim, I thought you might find this interesting as I recall a posting about this some time back. Here is a link to an interesting article about a foreseen food shortage that is described as not if but when it happens. I would like to point out the implication of this towards those who are interested in survival in that it would directly impact those trying to establish long term food storage using raw ingredients such as wheat and corn as they are highlighted in this article. The United States has more than enough ability to feed our nation and …


Letter Re: Peter Schiff’s Commentary–“Not Your Father’s Deflation”

Greetings! Here’s some more ‘great’ news [from Peter Schiff, by way of Kitco.com] for the coming economic crash. Thanks to ‘fiat currency,’ this [nascent] economic disaster won’t be nearly as “mild” as the Great Depression, because consumer prices will rise, and, our worthless money will de value at the same time! At least in the 30’s, the gold standard that backed the US dollar, made it hold value – even if there were fewer in circulation. Ditto silver & gold coins, that were still worth something (I found your blog late, and got started late, but I’m buying junk silver …


Letter Re: Going into Debt to Acquire Firearms Before New Ban Legislation is Enacted?

Mr. Rawles, Thanks for your recent advice. My question to you now combines questions of politics, debt, and firearms. The last time the executive and legislative branches were [both] held by the Democrats, we all got to enjoy the Assault Weapons Ban for 10 years. How removing a bayonet lug from firearms reduced gun violence, I’m not sure. The big problem with this, however, was obviously the magazine capacity limitations. The election of 2008 makes a similar act quite possible. By October 2008, a front-runner will probably have emerged. If that front-runner is not gun-friendly, where do we go from …


During a Disaster Event Should You Stay at Home or Leave?, by Grandpappy

Different types of disasters may require a different response if a family wishes to maximize their chances for long-term survival. Therefore each family should have several different disaster plans that they could successfully implement depending on the circumstances. These plans should include: 1. Staying at your home and being able to survive for a reasonable period of time without any outside assistance, and 2. Quickly and efficiently evacuating your home and traveling to a predetermined destination. Staying at home is probably the best overall strategy for most families in a variety of different disaster type situations. However, there are a …


Letter Re: Hunkering Down in an Urban Apartment in a Worst Case Societal Collapse

Hello, In the event of a disaster (I live in New York City) I intend to shelter in place until all the riotous mobs destroy each other or are starved out. I am preparing for up to six months. I have one liter of water stored for each day (180 liters) and about 50 pounds of rice to eat as well as various canned goods. I have not seen on your site anything about heat sources for urban dwellers who intend to shelter in place. I’m assuming that electricity would go first soon followed by [natural] gas and running water. …


Two Letters Re: Wider Implications of the Credit Crunch

Sir, I read your piece on the credit crunch, and believe it or not, it gets worse. Morgan Stanley not only took a $9.4 billion dollar hit, they shored up their books by getting a $5 billion dollar infusion of capital from the Chinese! They received a 9.9% share of the company in return. The same Chinese fund has also propped up the Blackstone Group, a private equities firm. – Tim R. Mr. Rawles: I don’t understand what all this credit and financial news means to us poor folks who don’t have any investments to lose. I have a tiny …


Wider Implications of the Credit Crunch

The news on the financial front has gone from bad to worse. Eric S. sent us this: ECB lends $500 Billion to lower rates, and Stephen in Iraq found this article: Fed Loans Banks [Another] $20 Billion. And if that weren’t enough, K.L. in Alaska sent us this: ACA Capital Holdings Inc. was just de-listed by the New York Stock Exchange. K.L.”s comment was blunt: “[ACA Capital Holdings] is essentially bankrupt. It is one of the insurers of the financial instruments such as municipal bonds, hedge funds and CDOs that have been infected by toxic mortgages. These funds are becoming …


Letter Re: Credit Crisis Attracts Carpetbaggers from Europe

Jim, In your novel “Patriots” the UN and Europe’s storm troopers waited until [after] the collapse [to move in] but in reality they are not [waiting]. With foreign banks buying (or should I say trying to buy) US banks and larger euro banks trying to buy the sub prime loans from several sources and now they are trying to make us a new sweat shop because of our falling dollar. They are gobbling up all of the defaulting residential and commercial property that they can, to a the average person that looks at it they are helping, but no there …


Coping With Inflation–Some Strategies for Investing, Bartering, Dickering, and Survival

Statistics released by the Federal government claim that the current inflation rate is 4.3 percent. That is utter hogwash. Their statistics cunningly omit “volatile” food and energy prices. The statisticians admit that energy costs rose by more than 21% since last December. They also admit that Finished Goods rose 7.2%, and “Materials for Manufacturing” rose a whopping 42% , with a 8.7% jump in just the month of November. When commodities rise this quickly, it is apparent that something is seriously out of whack. Meanwhile, the buying power of the US Dollar is falling versus most other currencies. Not surprisingly, …


Letter Re: A Significant Wheat Shortage is Looming in the US

Mr. Rawles, I found an interesting and alarming article from CattleNetwork.com on grain supplies. Especially note these parts: “In fact, export sales of U.S. wheat are beginning to look like panic buying. Overseas buyers are purchasing ahead anticipating the U.S. will run out of wheat, which is exactly what may happen for hard red winter and white wheat. Wheat exports simply can not be sustained at current levels. Either price will have to increase more to ration the remaining supply or, as was rumored in grain markets this week, the U.S. government will step in to embargo further wheat exports.” …


Four Letters Re: Extended Care of the Chronically Ill in TEOTWAWKI

Jim, One more suggestion (maybe it has been made already and I missed it) is that everybody should get up to date on their tetanus shots right now. If things get difficult, it would not be hard to imagine getting cut/puncture wounds in all sorts of ways, from all sorts of things in all sorts of circumstances. And these shots are good for 10 years, so you’re covered for a while. – Mike in Seattle   Jim, Pfizer announced that they will no longer make Exubera, the inhaled insulin powder due to massive marketing failures. Its a good product but …