Letter Re: ARM Twisting and the Nascent Real Estate Market

Mr. Rawles:
I’ve been following the articles you post about the impending housing bubble burst, and I happened to see this article about Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMS) that backs up some info you had posted not too long ago. One interesting statistic I saw on page 4: “More than a fifth of option ARM loans in 2004 and 2005 are upside down — meaning borrowers’ homes are worth less than their debt. If home prices fall 10%, that number would double.” So 40+% of mortgages would be upside down, in an only 10% depressed market? Not looking good.

I rent an apartment in Reno, Nevada, and would love nothing more then to buy a house, but only read with the disgust the “houses for sale” classified ads. People think they are sitting on gold mines, but I think reality is about to come crashing down.- Jason in Reno