Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on the possibility of a coming Euro collapse. (See the Forex section.)

 

Precious Metals:

Gold Prices Unchanged Following Mixed Durable Goods Data

 

Global Economy:

Japan will reach 2% inflation target and can begin reducing stimulus in five years, BOJ’s Kuroda says. JWR’s Comments: The Japanese Nikkei Average fell from a high of 40,000 at the end of 1989 to under 15,000 by 1992. Then their real estate prices followed suit, with a 60% decline. With the exception of a few years and the effects of artificial stimulus, the Japanese economy has been in a demographics-driven DEPRESSION for more than 35 years. They were the first country to attempt ZERO interest rates, for stimulus. And even that hasn’t worked. So now we are told that “just five more years” of artificial stimulus should do the trick! The sad fact is that the Japanese economy is a basket case. Japan is a country where they sell more adult diapers than they do baby diapers. If you attempt to fight a demographic sea change with monetary policy, you will lose. You fight a demographic war with demographic weapons. Unless the birth rate in Japan increases radically, by the year 2100, Japan will probably become a quaint retirement haven province of China. The United States and the EU nations should learn from Japan’s mistake and ban abortion! A birth rate that does not exceed a mere replacement rate is tantamount to national suicide, in the long term.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“When we undertake a task, we should not falter from first to last until the task is accomplished; if we fail, we should not begrudge our lives as a sacrifice-this is what we mean by loyalty. The ancient teaching of loyalty meant sometimes death.” – Sun Yat-Sen

A 21st Century Tangibles Investing Rationale

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I often have people ask me: “Why do you stress tangibles investing, Mr. Rawles?” In my estimation, tangibles always trump intangibles. I have three primary reasons why I distrust intangibles::

First: Nearly all intangible investments are denominated in fiat currencies. Because of this there is an underlying currency inflation, revaluation, or repudiation risk. Even when buying stock in the safest, most secure and impeccably-managed company it still has some risk when the investment is denominated in Dollars. Ditto for Dollar-denominated bonds. Ditto for redeemable life insurance policies and annuities. Ditto for business investments. Ditto for money market funds. Ditto for certificates of deposit (CDs). Whenever you have any investment that is denominated in a fiat currency, there is the risk of degradation of the currency unit itself. It is only tangibles that have innate, intrinsic, and intuitively obvious value that is not vulnerable to the whims of international currency markets, interest rate changes, or government insolvency.

The second reason is that most intangible investments represent a debt taken on by someone else. When your deposit funds in a financial institution, nearly all of it is loaned to a private party, a company, or a government. So your investment’s security is dependent on someone or some entity having the willingness and ability to earn a profit and consistently pay down that debt. In essence, the vast majority of investments are buying someone else’s liability. But a personally-held tangible is something of substance that has true intrinsic value, in and of itself. That rock solid value is not dependent on the action or inaction of any individual, corporation, or government.

The third reason is that they are outside of one’s personal control. Your very best intentions have little or no influence on the bad intentions of others. The news headlines are replete with tales of how people have their investments wiped out: Bad corporate management, government ineptitude, corruption, pilfering, swindling, embezzling, “official” confiscation, and wholesale larceny. We also live in the electronic age, so many investments are mere digits in computers. Thus, they are vulnerable to hacking, EMP, solar flares, and various other risks to the power grids. In contrast, a tangible that you keep at home in your personal control is only subject to your own failings. Granted, there are vulnerabilities to rust, mold, and theft. But each of those can be mitigated with proper planning, secure storage, and some concealment.  (And in the modern context, I would add: Concealment of the paper trail of your acquisition of a tangible. I recommend that you pay in cash or cryptocurrency for most of your investment tangibles. This will minimize the risk of confiscation by thieves with badges.)

Continue reading“A 21st Century Tangibles Investing Rationale”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “HJL”. Big brother is watching you through your friendly spy. Guess who?

The Outdoors Are Not Safe

Penn State University administration has ruled that the outdoors are just too dangerous for their student body. Three clubs, the Outing Club (A wilderness camping club), the Nittany Grotto Caving Club and the Nittany Divers SCUBA Club have been determined to have too high a risk to allow students to participate in any planned outings. The administration did not meet with the clubs, making the decision without any input from the clubs themselves. Apparently, the part that bothered the administration is that the clubs routinely took students to areas where there was no cell phone coverage and they were unable to communicate with others. Hmmm, I think that’s kind of the point of wilderness camping. Thanks to A.N. for the link.

Holocaust? What’s That?

The Washington post ran an article showing that two thirds of American millennials surveyed in a recent poll cannot identify what Auschwitz is. Twenty-two percent of those surveyed said they had never of the Holocaust (or weren’t sure they’d heard of it). Of course eleven percent of American adults say the same thing. With nearly 1.3 million people having been deported to Auschwitz for extermination during World War II, it makes you wonder what kind of history is being taught in our public schools. I guess the cry “Never Again” is becoming “never mind”. Without teaching about these horrendous acts of man, we are doomed to repeat them. Thanks to G.P. for the link.

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:”

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday – April 25, 2018

Today is the birthday of physicist, inventor, and entrepreneur Guglielmo Marconi (1874–1937). He was known for his pioneering work on long-distance radio transmission as well as for the development of Marconi’s law and a radio telegraph system. He is often considered the inventor of radio.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today features another entry for Round 76 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $11,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value), and
  8. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A gift certificate for any two or three-day class from Max Velocity Tactical (a $600 value),
  4. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 76 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Preparing for Chaos, Theory and Application- Part 2, by DF

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In part 1 of this two-part article, I wrote about the theory behind the reason for preparing for chaos and provided and overview of the laws of supply and demand. Then, I moved from theory into practical matters. I began with alternative feed for chickens, as chickens are a means for sustaining us when the SHTF and our transportation system is not delivering feed, chicks, or supplies to our stores. We have looked at crabapples and how to provide them with various insects. Now, let’s look at sunflowers to use as chicken feed.

Sunflowers/Sunflower Seeds

One of my neighbors grew some sunflowers one year and complained how much work it was to prepare the sunflowers for human consumption. My response was simple; grow them for the chickens and let them do all the work. Chickens will peck at a sunflower head until all the seeds are consumed.

My first challenge was to find some good sunflower seed. The local bulk seed store did not sell seeds for growing, but they had black oil sunflower seeds for bird feed. I just bought one 50 lb. bag, and the seeds had a 97% germination rate. So that’s what I planted.

A Modified Three Sisters Plant Strategy

I co-planted the sunflowers with an heirloom variety of large winter squash as a kind of modified three sisters plant strategy, with only two sisters. Sunflowers replaced the corn in the sister group, providing some shade for the squash as well as a grid for the squash plants to climb. By arrival of autumn, I had a few hundred sunflower heads (and a lot of squash). It is important to harvest the sunflowers before the wild birds eat too many of them. Also the sunflower seeds provide valuable fat and oils to the chickens, but they can make them fat and unhealthy if fed exclusively. It is also important to have a mouse-free bin to store the sunflower heads, since rodents like them, too.

Continue reading“Preparing for Chaos, Theory and Application- Part 2, by DF”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on Bitcoin Market Manipulation. (See the Cryptos section.)

 

Precious Metals:

First up, at Zero Hedge: Russia Buys 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In March – Nears 2,000 Tons In Reserves

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Silver Short Squeeze Unable to Ignite the Gold Sector…Yet

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Michael Ballanger: Whither Silver From Here?

 

Stocks and Bonds:

I warned readers that rising interest rates would cause some big market drops. Well, here they come: Dow drops over 500 points after 10-year Treasury yield touches 3%

Cryptos (Bitcoin Market Manipulation):

It is noteworthy that the U.S. Dollar trade value of Bitcoin (BTC) has been bouncing around $9,300 but then it regularly gets pushed back down below $8,850. This definitely smacks of automated sell orders that are in place. As I’ve mentioned before, only 50 individuals and entities hold more than half of all of the Bitcoin now in existence. One of those entities is the U.S. Government. It does so, because the Justice Department made a few high-profile seizures of Bitcoin.  Most notorious was their “tackle in the public library” seizure of more than 144,000 BTC from Silk Road manager Ross Ulbricht (aka The Dread Pirate Roberts or DPR) in 2013. At the time, that chunk of BTC (then worth $130 per BTC) was valued at just $28.5 million. But at $9,000 USD each, that 144,000 BTC equates to nearly $1.3 Billion USD!Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

JWR’s Recommendations of the Week

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Here are JWR’s Recommendations of the Week for various media and tools of interest to SurvivalBlog readers. This week the focus is on RTIC Coolers.

Books:

With my prematurely aging eyes, this has become my preferred printing size: Holy Bible: KJV Large Print Thumb Index Edition: Tan

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Black Sheep One: The Life of Gregory “Pappy” Boyington

 

Movies:

A Noble Lie: Oklahoma City 1995. Available on DVD. Also available for free download for Amazon Prime members.

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The Chronicles of Melanie. Available on DVD. Also available for free download for Amazon Prime members.

Continue reading“JWR’s Recommendations of the Week”

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday – April 24, 2018

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April 24th is the birthday of Carolyn Cole(born 1961), a well-known staff photographer for the Los Angeles Times. For a few years in the late 1960s, the Cole family lived next door to JWR’s parents’ house in Livermore, California. That little girl with whom he played hide-and-seek would grow up to earn a Pulitzer Prize, two World Press Photo awards, and be named Photojournalist Of The Year. Congrats and Happy Birthday, Carolyn!

This is also the day in 1915 of the Armenian Genocide, where Ottoman (Turkey) Muslims slaughtered 1.5 million of their Christian neighbors, intellectuals, and community leaders. The Ottoman government proceeded with multiple phases to round up men in mass executions and drive women and children into the desert on death marches. They also lead the general Muslim citizens to participate in brutal periodic massacres within their communities signaled with the blow of a bugle in a Manchurian candidate-type of manner. It is one of the first modern genocides and serves as a warning for us today. Sarah Latimer, decades ago, spent most of a day on a flight speaking one-on-one with an elderly woman, who told of her account as a child escaping this horror and of her faith in God, which her family would not renounce and for which most died. She lost most of her family, including her father, because they would not renounce their faith. This woman had a great impact on Sarah. There are chilling accounts contained in Islam scholar Andrew Bostom’s book, The Legacy of Jihad: Islamic Holy War And the Fate of Non-Muslims

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today features another entry for Round 76 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $11,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value), and
  8. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A gift certificate for any two or three-day class from Max Velocity Tactical (a $600 value),
  4. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 76 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Preparing for Chaos, Theory and Application- Part 1, by DF

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Many people view the possibility of economic/societal disruption and collapse as science fiction, suitable as entertainment in dystopian novels or movies. I view it as actual science, not fiction and am preparing for the ensuing chaos and necessities to get past it. Well-proven theories in the areas of nonlinear systems and economics can help us partially understand what can happen, how we can prepare and respond, and even what is not possible to predict.

My first section on “theory” is quite abstract. It looks at some of the basic principles of chaos theory to describe the mechanisms of economic/societal collapse. It also looks at the laws of supply and demand to understand the likely failure of normal supply chains for goods and services. The other two major sections are very practical, almost boring, advice on creating your own supply chain for food supply to your farm animals, and ultimately, you.

Section I – Theory

I would like to discuss two theories– chaos theory and the laws of supply and demand.

Chaos Theory

Chaos theory describes certain types of nonlinear dynamic systems. It is characterized by a high gradient (driving force) and extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. The sensitivity to initial conditions make it impossible to calculate the exact behavior of the system very far into the future. Below are some simple examples.

Example of Water Flowing Through a Hose

Water flowing through a hose is completely predictable using newtonian physics at low flow rates. The water comes out in a smooth predictable tube the same shape as the hose. When the “gradient” of pressure driving force exceeds a certain threshold, the flow becomes turbulent and starts to spray in many different directions. Turbulence is a chaotic phenomenon that makes it impossible to predict where any specific water molecule will go.

Continue reading“Preparing for Chaos, Theory and Application- Part 1, by DF”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

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Here is SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt. This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. We also mention companies of interest to preppers that are located in the region. The emphasis this week is on the Sunshine Minting Company.

Idaho (Sunshine Minting)

The refined folks at Sunshine Minting (with several facilities, one of them in Coeur d’Alene) are seeing a jump in wholesale orders, because of rising silver prices. They make 1-ounce .999 silver planchets (blanks) for many other private mints and the popular U.S. Mint for the American Eagle coin minting program. The planchets for the discontinued American Redoubt coins also came from Sunshine Minting. They also make bars, up to 100 ounce weight, for companies such as APMEX. And of course they produce silver rounds and bars with their own logo. Those are sold by all of the major bullion coin sellers, and are so ubiquitous that you’ll often find them on eBay and at local coin shops.

I should mention that there seems to be some confusion between the company names of the famous Sunshine Mine and and Sunshine Minting. They are separate companies. Their only relationship at present is that Sunshine Minting does buy some silver from the Sunshine Mine. Started in 1884, the Sunshine Mine is still going strong, producing a high volume of silver ore.

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Woman airlifted to hospital after motorcycle crashes into herd of deer

 

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “HJL”.

I’m finally beginning to get some dexterity back in my fingers after the accident. It’s tough not being able to use your hands when there is so much to be done. Spring is definitely here! On the bright side, I spent some time watching YouTube videos and found a new vlogger that I like. AvE is a Canadian that believes in destructive testing of products. He tears down expensive tools and compares them to the cheap alternatives. He’s very ADD and reminds me of myself when I was younger.

In particular, he has a series where he compares the “Made in the USA” tools to Chinese imports and the results are rather surprising. In some cases, the “Made in the USA” tool performs better, as you would expect, but only marginally. In other cases, the Chinese import outperforms the USA product. I’m reminded of the early days of Japanese car imports. There was a time when Japanese car companies truly did produce junk, but it wasn’t long before they had a quality product on the market and the US auto manufactures were still producing the same old thing. You could routinely get 500,000 miles out of a Japanese engine while American engines were doing good to get 100,000 without having to be rebuilt. Who doesn’t think of Toyota as a quality product nowadays?

Competition is a good thing for the consumer. In any case, destructive testing is always fascinating to watch, especially when the product is expensive. Note: He does use rough language.

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:”