Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the corporate debt bubble. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

Allen Sykora: Palladium may lose some altitude but expected to remain at lofty heights

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Kitco: Asset allocation tips to prepare for more volatility in 2020

Economy & Finance:

Reader Mark J. was the first of several to send us this, at Zero Hedge: “Massive… Huge… Largest Ever”: Fed Will Flood Market With Gargantuan $500 Billion In Liquidity To Avoid Year-End Repo Crisis

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At Wolf Street: Is the Corporate-Debt Bubble Ripe Yet? An excerpt:

“In its Financial Stability Report, the Fed warns about the ballooning debts of non-financial businesses. These are businesses that are not lenders. Excluding lenders from the tally prevents double counting of debts, since lenders borrow money to lend money. So this is money that non-financial companies owe, and they range from mom-and-pop restaurants to Apple.

The Fed measures this debt in several ways. In absolute dollars, these debts have skyrocketed from record to record and have hit $18 trillion. And as a percent of GDP, these debts have reached historic highs. The Fed says that “the most rapid increases in debt are concentrated among the riskiest firms amid weak credit standards.”

So we’ve got historically high debt levels, especially among the most leveraged companies with negative cash flows, amid loosey-goosey underwriting standards.

And the Fed warns about, laments, and bemoans the speed of this debt pileup, with business debts jumping by 5.1% over the past 12 months, much faster than the economy grew.”

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Fed Says No Hikes In 2020. What About Gold?, by Arkadiusz Sieroń

Editor’s Introductory Note; I’ve found Arkadiusz Sieroń to be one of the best of the modern precious metals markets analysts. I selected the following article. It was not solicited. It is re-posted with permission.

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The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged in December. The statement was rather hawkish, while the dot-plot rather dovish. What does such a mix imply for the yellow metal?

Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on December 10-11th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75 percent:

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective.

The pause means that the FOMC has really completed a “mid-cycle” rate adjustments in October. The decision was unanimous, which confirms that there is no appetite for further cuts among the U.S. central bankers, at least not now.

Another important change was removing the part about the remaining uncertainty about the outlook. Instead, the Fed added the sentence that “the Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity (…)”. It suggests that the U.S. central bank does not expect more easing of its monetary policy in the near future. That’s a rathe hawkish news, which is bad for the gold market.

No More Cuts, No More Hikes in 2020

But do not worry. The Fed published also the updated dot-plot. It shows no rate hikes in 2020 and just one in 2021, which is clearly a dovish change since September where the previous economic projections were published. Back then, the FOMC also expected no rate hikes next year and just one in 2021. But the Fed thought that the federal funds rate would be 1.9 percent at the end of 2019 and 2020, 2.1 percent in 2021, and 2.4 percent in 2022. While right now the U.S. central banks sees the interest rates at only 1.9 percent at the end of 2021, and 2.1 percent at the end of 2022. It means that the future path of interest rates will be flatter than expected.Continue reading“Fed Says No Hikes In 2020. What About Gold?, by Arkadiusz Sieroń”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we are focusing on several items of Second Amendment news.

Survival Camps Cater to New Fear: America’s Political Unrest

Reuters: Survival camps cater to new fear: America’s political unrest. The article begins:

“Aiming an AR-15 rifle across a Colorado valley dotted with antelope and cattle, Drew Miller explains how members of his new survival ranch would ride out an apocalypse.

The former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer said his latest Fortitude Ranch community, under construction below mountain forests, will shelter Americans fleeing anything from a bioengineered pandemic to an attack on the electricity grid.

For an annual fee of around $1,000, members can vacation at the camps in good times, and use them as a refuge during a societal collapse.

“If you’ve got a lot of weapons, if you’ve got a lot of members at guard posts, defensive walls, we don’t think we’re going to need to fight,” said Miller, crouching on top of a fortified position on the camp perimeter.

The expansion of Miller’s camp chain underscores the growing mainstream appeal of the “prepper” movement long associated with anti-government survivalists.”

JWR’s Comment: The liberal journalists are so predictable. They always have throw the “anti-government” smear in there somewhere, don’t they?

MP Cash: UK Has Been Shackled by EU

Video from the UK Parliament: Conservative MP Bill Cash: UK has been Shackled by EU.

Private License Plate Readers?

More about ALPRs: Privately owned and operated license plate readers create privacy concerns

California Denying 18% of Lawful Ammo Purchases

Another from DSV: California Denying 18% of Lawful Ammo Purchases, Only 101 Prohibited Persons Stopped

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — December 25, 2019

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To those who are celebrating the Advent of our Lord and Savior, the team at SurvivalBlog wishes you a peaceful and meaningful Christmas. For those who choose to celebrate our Lord through the biblical feasts, stay safe out there during this holiday season. Our prayer is that each and every one of you enjoy the family time and that you stay safe on the roads.

Photo: Christmas in a European Salt Mine: “Viering kerstnacht/kerstfeest in een zoutmijn te Duitsland, 1933. Mijnwerkers met carbidlampen zingen bij brandende waxinelichtjes.”

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 86 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The more than $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3,000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from veteran-owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  3. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  4. A $300 purchase credit for any of the products from EMPShield.com
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  7. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Good2GoCo.com is providing a $400 purchase credit at regular prices for the prize winner’s choice of either Wise Foods or Augason long term storage foods, in stackable buckets.
  2. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  3. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 86 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Living Off The Grid – Part 2, by V.F.

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(Continued from Part 1. This concludes the article.)

In October of the first year, I remember going out to take a shower in the “shower room” outside. By the time I had finished I was sobbing, crying incoherently, full of pity for myself. You see, it was already freezing cold and while I thought of solutions like adding a heater and so forth, I realized that I just didn’t want to have to deal with this anymore. But I had made my bed and I was going to have to sleep in it as the old saying goes. I let myself cry for a bit, then I made myself think of a solution. Heating the outdoor shower room was not going to solve the problem. The Zodi shower is not perfect. You can’t run it inside of a building, it needs to exhaust. It is also pretty finicky to get the temperature just right. The water flow is dependent on the battery, so if the battery needs to be charged, the water flow is slower and hotter. Many times I was taking a shower that started out fine but ended up way too hot or too cold.

Ending the experience with freezing cold temperatures outside was a situation I could no longer deal with. The solution was simple. The shower had to be inside. So I put a 20 gallon Rubbermaid tote (they are pretty stout) in the bathroom we had made in the closet of the bedroom. Next, I grabbed our old outdoor shower tarp that we used to use with our solar camping shower. These are sold in the camping section of stores. I hung it up securely, it fit perfectly, then I ran a hole in the wall to feed the shower nozzle through and reattached the shower head on the inside. I found an old shower head holder that would keep the shower head in the right spot so I wouldn’t have to hold it anymore. I set up the Zodi shower system in the bedroom in front of a window. Then I added a 35 gallon water tank and set it next to the shower stuff. It was small enough to fit under the window and not be seen from outside and it was small enough that I could clean it in between fillings with the swipe of a few paper towels to remove any rust that would build up.

Now I could hop into the shower, my husband could operate it and adjust the temperature for me and open the window while it was on. I had the bathroom (closet) door closed, so I didn’t get cold. Voila! A shower in your home completely independent of plumbing. When I was done showering, I emptied the water outside. I discovered that there are rolling totes and that made it easier to empty the water. It wasn’t a problem really for taking a shower, because I only used about 5 gallons of water. My daughter on the other hand, took baths and that was about 10-15 gallons of water (at the age of 4). The really nice thing about the Zodi for the bath was that we could run in the water, then recycle it once by moving the water pump from the fresh supply of water to the water we had just run into the tub. This would make the water twice as hot. Only recycle the water if it is clean, not after it has been used, since that would gunk up your lines.Continue reading“Living Off The Grid – Part 2, by V.F.”

JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:

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Here are JWR’s Recommendations of the Week for various media and tools of interest to SurvivalBlog readers. The focus is usually on emergency communications gear, bug out bag gear, books and movies–often with a tie-in to disaster preparedness, and links to “how to” self-sufficiency videos. There are also links to sources for both storage food and storage containers. You will also note an emphasis on history books and historical movies. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. This week, in the last Recommendations column of the calendar year, the focus is on key resources that you may need in an grid-up economic depression, or even in a grid-down “worst case”.

Books:

The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm

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I’ve mentioned this crucial reference twice before: Pocket Ref 4th Edition

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Ultimate Guide: Plumbing, 4th Updated Edition (Creative Homeowner) 800+ Photos; Step-by-Step Projects and Comprehensive How-To Information on Up-to-Date Products & Code-Compliant Techniques for DIY

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The ARRL Ham Radio License Manual – Spiral Bound

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Wiring a House: Completely Revised and Updated (For Pros By Pros)

Continue reading“JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Almighty God, give us grace to cast away the works of darkness and put on the armor of light, now in the time of this life, in which your Son Jesus Christ came to visit us in great humility; So that, at the last day, when he shall come again in his glorious majesty to judge the living and the dead, we may rise to the life immortal.”  – The Book of Common Prayer, 1662

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — December 24, 2019

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December 24 is the 20th anniversary of when John Joe Gray’s legal troubles began, in 2000. He and his family had been self-sufficiently holed up in their Texas ranch for nearly 15 years, in defiance of a warrant for his arrest, before the district attorney dropped the charges. This was the longest standoff in American history, in which he faced the administrations of four different county sheriffs.

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 86 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The more than $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3,000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from veteran-owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  3. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  4. A $300 purchase credit for any of the products from EMPShield.com
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  7. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Good2GoCo.com is providing a $400 purchase credit at regular prices for the prize winner’s choice of either Wise Foods or Augason long term storage foods, in stackable buckets.
  2. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  3. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 86 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Living Off The Grid – Part 1, by V.F.

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When I was a child, my mother moved to a very remote area of Eastern Washington and we lived off the grid. This was long before the term had been coined, as far as I know. The property did not have a house. We lived in a little travel trailer. We went to town once a month and did laundry at the laundromat. We boiled water from the creek to wash dishes. The creek was also our refrigerator. We ran a PVC pipe in the creek and placed a horse trough in the creek. This is where we kept drinks cold and we didn’t have to worry about them going down the mountain. I don’t remember any of it as a hardship but I was a child and the responsibilities were not mine. I did not know that much later that I too would choose to live Off the Grid.

Fast forward. I joined the Army after high school and married a man I met while I was in the Army. After we were done with our service, we relocated to his home state of Illinois and bought our first house. We worked for years, myself in retail, my husband in the medical field. We relocated again for job promotions to the Chicago area and we had a wonderful life. Then something happened. My husband and I woke up!

When I think back to when I became awake, I realize that it wasn’t something that happened overnight. It was very gradual. It took years of semi-consciousness before it happened, but when it did happen, my life changed forever. There is no going back, you can not go back to sleep, back to dreaming, back to not knowing. You can not un-know… But sometimes I wish I could. It would be so much easier to not see what is going on. Once you awaken, you realize how brainwashed and asleep nearly everyone else is! The sad part is the realization of how unwilling everyone else is to see it for themselves.

As I was sleepwalking through my life there were the occasional few who would comment about something and a little spark of life might flare up in my mind. But I would always gradually nod off again. I think to myself, thank God, some people do still try to reach out sometimes to awaken others. I remember when a friend gave me a copy of George Orwell’s novel 1984. I read it because I enjoy reading. And I found it quite disturbing. But it took years for me to realize how truly accurate the ideas in the book actually are. It was a small piece of the puzzle. I went through a long period of denial. All that are awake know what I am talking about.

When you are truly awake, you understand finally, that evil forces are alive and well, thriving really, all around you. That the stories from childhood are real, there really are big bad scary monsters out there who want to kill you any way they can and they have disguised themselves is sheep’s clothing, or should I say flashy ads. This is the fundamental truth that all people who are not awake will deny. If you tell them that corporations that make food and personal products are putting ingredients in that will eventually kill you, they will label you as a kook. If you tell them that the makers of pharmaceuticals and vaccines are trying to drug you and inject cancer into you then they will say that you are part of the problem. Being awake is like being condemned. You can no longer have many friends. They don’t have time to do the research, or to worry about these things, or the energy, or the ability to do anything. So they shrug and they laugh and they just go on sleepwalking.Continue reading“Living Off The Grid – Part 1, by V.F.”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

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This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, we focus on the Inland Northwest’s wild Turkey population explosion. (See the Region-Wide section.)

Region-Wide

Washington Rep. Matt Shea on Infowars with David Knight

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Inland Northwest’s thriving turkey population is an invasive nuisance or a conservation success – or bot. Here is how the article opens:

“Fifty-five years ago, Jack Adkins was frustrated. A biologist for Washington’s Department of Game, Adkins was trying to catch turkeys in Stevens County using a 90-by-40-foot net propelled by “three projectiles (shot) from a small cannon.”

It wasn’t working.

“We’ve had all sorts of problems,” Adkins told The Spokesman-Review in January 1964. “But the main one is the wariness of the birds.”

Adkins knew these turkeys well. Just four years before, he and other biologists released 17 of the large birds into the wild after obtaining them from Wyoming. They’d reproduced, and in 1964 it was estimated there were between 250 and 300 in the hills and fields along the Columbia River near Rice, Washington. That success prompted Adkins to try and catch a few and transport them to the Blue Mountains.”

Idaho

17 cows die after semi crashes in Blaine County

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Bonner County Idaho Tax Assessors Caught Trespassing

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Former Idaho County Sheriff’s deputy sentenced for sexual abuse against minor

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Christmas Eve ought to be a very joyful evening to us in all its associations, in all the truths which it naturally brings to the soul…. A man’s soul is to be as the heavens were on the night when the shepherds looked up and saw them full of angels as well as stars .”  – Henry Ward Beecher

Preparedness Notes for Monday — December 23, 2019

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December 23rd is the birthday of Founding Father and Supreme Court Justice John Jay. (Born 1745, died May 17, 1829.)

December 23rd is also the anniversary of the establishment of of the exclusive private banking cartel known as The Federal Reserve, in 1913. I recommend the book The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve.

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JWR Asks: I’m running low on writing contest articles to post in January. So I encourage any blog readers with some quiet vacation time available to get busy writing. An article as short as 1,500 words could be awarded  one of the top three prizes, which are worth thousands of dollars! The previous prize winners have been thrilled with their prizes. One recent prize winner described her prizes as: “…just overwhelming. Like the best bunch of Christmas gifts I’ve ever received…”

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Palmetto State Armory (one of our affiliate advertisers) is continuing their AR-15 Days of Christmas sale.  Just until December 31, 2019, they are offering Taurus G2C 9mm pistols at just under $155 (after manufacturer’s rebate.)  These have 12-round double stack magazines. If you are looking for a very inexpensive but yet reliable compact 9mm, then this is a good choice. Just type “52549” in their search box, to find this Taurus sale offer.

They also still have their 16″ 5.56 NATO 1:7 Freedom Classic Upper with Bolt Carrier Group & Charging Handle in Olive Green on sale for just $219.99. Just type “7780181” in their search box, to find this item. Meanwhile they have matching Olive Green complete lowers on sale for $129.99. Just type “7779347” in their search box, to find this item. If you slap that upper on that lower then–aside for a magazine and a rear sight (or optic)–you’ll have a complete OD furniture M4gery!  That is a great deal. If you can afford to, then I recommend that you buy several sets.

And they have their Nitride MPI Full-Auto AR-15 Bolt Carrier Groups on sale again at just $49.99!  Just paste item number 516446953 into their search box. If you own two or more ARs, then you should keep at least one compete spare Bolt Carrier Group on hand!

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Today, another review written by our Field Gear Editor, Pat Cascio.