Letter Re: Predicting the Timing for an Economic Crash?

Hi Jim!
All things considered, what is your best “guestimate” on when this economy will crash or the SHTF ? – M. in Montana

JWR Replies: Sorry, but I don’t have a crystal ball. All that I know is that with the massive debt accumulations (both Federal and consumer debt), the real estate bubble, and the burgeoning trade deficit, the U.S. economy is highly unstable. Other factors like international terrorism and the Asian Avian flu are totally unpredictable variables. The bottom line: Just be prepared, and be prepared soon.



Odds ‘n Sods

The USGS the Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) is an excellent resource when you are looking for specific areas on a map: http://geonames.usgs.gov/ You will want the underlined part–click on it: United States and territories. Enter the name of the place you want and the state (or any other information you have). It will give you several choices.

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Safecastle (one of our advertisers) is running a special on Mountain House #10 (1 gallon) cans of freeze dried foods at their on-line store–48 cans for $789 and free shipping. That’s a good deal, but for SurvivalBlog readers, if they email Vic, he will reply with an additional discount on top of the sale price.(For SurvivalBlog readers, only.) See: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=8771416861 Vic’s email: jcrefuge@safecastle.net (Include :SurvivalBlog in the e-mail title.)

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The American Conservative magazine ran a thought-provoking article titled “War of the Worlds“, available on its website. (See: http://www.amconmag.com/2006/2006_02_27/article3.html)

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Doc (at www.bigsecrets.cc) contends that the best ballistic barrier that can be improvised on a low budget is a lamination of 1/8″ steel plate, 1/4″ plywood, and 1/8″ steel plate. In other words, cover both sides of plywood with steel plate. It won’t stop .50 caliber rounds or RPGs, but most shoulder fired weapons can be stopped with this barrier.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“There’s a fine line between eccentrics and geniuses.
If you’re a little ahead of your time, you’re an eccentric,
and if you’re a little to late, you’re a failure,
but if you hit it right on the head, you’re a genius.
So I have never worried much about eccentricity.”  – Tom Watson, Jr., IBM



The H5N1 Threat: Time to Get Serious About Food Storage







It appears that a mutation of the H5N1 Asian Avian influenza virus into a form that is easily transmissible between humans is now “likely within the next 36 months.” Read: “possibly better than a 50/50 chance.” From an actuarial accounting standpoint, this should be considered a call for action. Quit dawdling. If you do not yet have an honest two year food supply set aside for your family, do so soon. If you wait until after a mutation occurs, it will be too late–all of the storage food vendors will sell out immediately, and then they will start to build an order backlog that will stretch into months, and then years. I’m not kidding. Some storage food vendors that I can vouch for include:

Freeze Dry Guy
JRH Enterprises
Ready Made Resources
SafeCastle
Survival Enterprises
Safe Solutions
Walton Seed
Live Oak Farms
AlpineAire Foods
Best Prices Inc. Storable Foods of Texas

(Yes, the first six of those are SurvivalBlog advertisers, so I guess that makes me biased. But at least I know that they are trustworthy and sell top quality products.)



David in Israel on “Relocation” Camps — Guest or Inmate?

If you are relocated: Depending on the circumstances of a relocation it may be salvation from danger (large disaster) or because you are considered a threat (a la the Japanese Americans during WWII) In any case, a government camp can be one of the most undesirable places to be once you are out of danger. Once you are their “guest”, the organization who has sheltered you may feel they must continue for political or security reasons to see to your well being. Ease of providing security, lack of ID, or fear of rioting may be excuses for denying or making difficult the conclusion of your stay. Separation of men and women may be mandated, especially after the rape problems at the Hurricane Katrina stadium relocation “camps”.
The U.S. Forest Service fire camp is essentially the same model used for most FEMA operations (look up “FEMA ICS”– Incident Command System), there is a whole industry which starts in spring through late fall following the fire season. Federal and state prisons employ trustee fire crews right alongside regular crews on large fires. Prison infrastructure and security is present at most large fire camps.
In the event of a large national emergency in your area, be prepared for forced evacuations. Have a plan in case you are caught in a relocation and are unable to make your way (or are prevented) on your own. An assessment must be made whether you are a prisoner or a guest but even guests of an operation like this are treated like to some extent as prisoners to reduce manpower requirements.
Cyclone (chan link) fences are made to keep you in, out, or prevent your crossing. In any of these circumstances a proper heavy duty wire cutter is needed to make your escape. Cutting through private or farm fences is a bad thing to do (use good judgment) but if you are trapped (detention camp) then this tool may be a life saver. Be sure that the jaws are of proper temper so they do not blunt or fall apart.[JWR Adds: A heavy duty “compound” design wire cutter is probably your best bet.] A smaller cutter may be a good item to hide in addition to the big cutter.
Concertina or razor-type wire may be employed to prevent foot crossing or even just block a road. Stacked concertina wire [typically deployed stacked, with two “tubes”, parallel, with a third tube resting on top of the base pair, forming an obstacle that looks triangular when seen in cross-section] is almost impossible to cross bare-handed. However, scrap carpet, sleeping bags, canvas tents, tarps, et cetera can be used to reduce injury on large group crossings.
When I lived in the U.S., most sniffer dogs were for drugs and this is likely still the case. Expect to be sniffed at some point. Expect to be questioned, if you are dealing with prison guards they are more looking for nervousness or hesitation at answering than what you are really up to also do not fail the attitude test and get aggressive unless you want to be
considered a risk. Be a “Gray man.” Don’t complain or ask for favors be the easy one to forget then you won’t be missed. Expect only a cursory search if large numbers are being taken in, having your own gear makes it easier to keep escape tools likely the back or kidney padding will not be searched on a backpack.
The U.S. government has huge stockpiles of large tents, sleeping bags, ground pads, heaters, and other supplies ready to be shipped in and form these camps.
Private contract companies for fire and security and site services are ready and trained to make these FEMA camps go up quickly in response to an emergency. Command, Finance, Logistics, Operations, and Planning personnel are pre-trained and certified to come together without ever having met and set up a huge working camp and tackle an assignment. It would be interesting to hear from a SurvivalBlog reader that has worked as (or for) a security contractor or warden about fire/recovery type operations using inmate labor, and how security is handled. [As a firefighter, my role in forming these camps was always on the “ops” end attacking fires so the other roles were only observed or in command simulations

It is important to remember as always most workers in a camp like this (if not all) think they are doing the best for both you and the public at large. Even if you hold by the “UN is evil” theory (I do) understand that the troops in the field are specially trained and motivated (brainwashed) by upper command. I have seen it in Israeli police and IDF soldiers during the ejection of Jews from Gush Katif. Use subtle resistance tactics, not violence.



Letter Re: Polarwrap Cold Weather Insulating Face Masks

Good Morning Jim,
My wife recently bought me a “Polarwrap” cold-weather mask. When I first got it, I tried it on and promptly tossed it on the top shelf of my closet. “No way I’ll ever wear that thing!” I thought to myself.

Well, yesterday morning, with the mercury hovering near 30 below, and chores to do, guess what? I went to the closet, found my mask, put ‘er on and went outside to work.

It’s darn nice to find a product that works… and this baby works! As one exhales, the warmth and moisture of the outgoing air heats up the innards of the Polarwrap and the frigid incoming air is warmed up nicely.

At $50, one of the best gifts my wife ever gave me. I intend to buy an extra and keep it with my emergency gear.

(Congrats on the lifestyle change… I’m part of the 10 Cent Challenge now!) – Dutch in Wyoming



Odds ‘n Sods:

Recombinomics has issued a new prediction and warning of a likely alteration in the avian influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin gene. Like the warning/prediction issued in October, 2005, this new alteration will increase the affinity of the virus for human receptors and lead to more efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans. For the full text of the press release see: http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/02-17-2006/0004284283&EDATE=

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“Doc” at  www.bigsecrets.cc recommends this site on ethanol: http://www.standardalcohol.com/FFV.htm

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Ready for an ice storm? See some amazing pictures of this one from last year, in Geneva, Switzerland: http://www.markdaviesmedia.com/cold

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SurvivalBlog reader P.L. recommends a web site dedicated to helping Americans emigrate: http://www.bidstrup.com/expat-assets.htm as well as this site with information on Pacific Islands: http://www.southpacific.org. Based on my recent research for a consulting client, the island nations of The Cook Islands, Niue, and Tonga seem to offer the most freedom in the Oceania region. (Any nation, such as these, that is chided by the UN for having “too lax” gun control laws sounds pretty good to me!)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Of all serious crimes under the law, smuggling…  least violates the consciences of men. It is a crime against law and against government, but not against morality. The smuggler robs no man. He buys goods honestly in one market and sells them honestly in another. His offense is against an arbitrary regulation of government…. he simply fails to pay its demands.Many men otherwise honest are unable to see any moral turpitude in smuggling. …government, in exacting toll, plays the part of the highwayman." –  The Oregonian, Jan. 21, 1886



Hardening Up Your Retreat by Robert Henry

In previous articles, I talked about what exactly is needed to stop different types of projectiles to include lists of materials and the thicknesses needed to achieve the desired protection. Here, I’m going to talk about some specific items you should give consideration to protecting at your retreat.
Yep, your gonna need a lot of sandbags. No way around that. Some things we can get creative with, some we cannot.
Let’s start close to home. If your house is not of the construction that will stop bullets, and you intend to live at that house after TSHTF, then we have some work to do.
At a minimum, I would sandbag to the height of the windowsill of each window for all windows that you could shoot out of. Furthermore, I would sandbag the width of the window plus 1 or 2 sandbags wide and an additional 4 or 5 higher than the sill (on the sides you widened. If you windows are lower, you’ll be squatting or kneeling if you have to shoot out of them anyway. If time and the situation permits, and they haven’t already been shot out, you should attempt to open the window before shooting out of it. Remember though, you don’t want to stick your weapon THROUGH the window. Actually, keeping a good distance BACK from the window would be helpful in many ways–it will lessen the flash and smoke seen from your shot, the shadow should help conceal you, you will be less “framed” than standing directly in the window, and the angles will work to your advantage as far as being able to see more from further back.
Let me explain that angles thing a bit. Think about when your driving down the highway. A big rig is going slow in front of you and you want to pass. You get right on his tail and try to look around to see if it’s clear to pass- you can’t see much can you? So you drop back 20 or 30 yards, nudge over just a bit and you can see clearly. It’s the same way working with angles in houses. This is also great for clearing rooms also, but that’s another article.
If you have the will and inclination, and your floor can handle the weight, you might opt to build a 3 or 4 bag high wall around on the INSIDE of the house. Why the inside? Surprise. If you stack 3 or 4 sandbags high on the outside of the house, this will just encourage someone to shoot higher and to expect return fire from you. If it’s INSIDE the house, no one will know from outside.
Can your floor handle it? On a “slab at grade” style house, most definitely. On a house with a basement, you’d have to check. What your looking for is the size of the floor joists, how far apart they are, and is their any bridging (little brace looking thingees between the joists). With this info, you can go to the local library or Lowe’s and check a book on carpentry. Any decent carpentry book with have tables with allowable floor joist sizes and “live” and “dead” loads for each. You need to know this ahead of time if you intend to sandbag later. You can always reinforce the joists if you know ahead of time.
What other things around your retreat should you plan to “harden?”
How about any above ground fuel storage. Namely liquid propane (LP) gas tanks. When you get one, have them install it a good stand off distance from your structure for this reason. Yes, it will cost you some extra money in the distance of the line, but it’s better than blowing up your house isn’t it? You could sandbag your fuel tanks or if they are a permanent fixture, you could also pour a rectangle footing around the outside of it, and build block walls around it. Be sure to use rebar and fill EVERY cell with grout mix. Be sure the block wall goes higher than the top of the tank. You could make this decorative with a tin roof.
Any building housing critical infrastructure should be hardened. A small shed containing a well pump should be hardened for ballistic protection as well as EMP protection as well. The same goes for your generator building.
Any exposed hose bib that could be used for fighting fires should be protected as well.
All observation posts (OPs) and trenches should be hardened either by the use of sandbags, packed earth or permanent construction with concrete and rebar.
Communications and medical buildings should be protected at least to the level of a four high sandbag retaining wall.
Any critical equipment such as well pumps, generators, radios, should be double sandbagged if possible.
If you have the idea that your retreat is going to look like a firebase after TSHTF, then you are on the right track.



Letter Re: Priority of Training?

Jim,
I noted your recent reply to someone regarding medical training and thought I’d drop you an email.  For a point of reference I’ll first state that I’m a paramedic by trade.  Knowing all people won’t be able to take advantage of the class you reference I would suggest if people are interested in learning basic CPR and first aid courses I would highly recommend they contact their local EMS offices.  This is especially true in the rural setting as many smaller services offer courses at very low cost.  For those that may have a little time on their hands they may want to see if their local EMS stations offer an EMT-Basic course, several community colleges also offer these courses in the evening.  It should be noted just like anything else some instructors are better than others so ask around if you can. 
One thing people should consider is if they can achieve an EMT-Basic state certification many rural EMS system have first responders that provide assistance within their systems.  That is to say they will often provide a first responder with a pager, basic bandaging supplies, oxygen tanks and some of the accompanying equipment to respond to emergencies and provide first response assistance.  I’m sure most people can see the benefit in this as they receive experience and equipment all for the cost of their time helping others when their available and if SHTF you’ve got some equipment that you can use for your own purposes.
For those that don’t have that kind of time available I would suggest reading material.  Look for an  EMT-Basic book to start off with and then move on to EMT-Paramedic materials.  Two well known instructional EMS material providers are printed by Bryan Bledsoe or Mosby with various authors.  Another good book that covers variety of subjects is the Special Operations Forces Medical Handbook, but some knowledge of the basics is suggested for this book. Hope this information provides to be useful.- J.S.



Odds ‘n Sods:

The American auto making giant General Motors has launched a big advertising campaign to promote E85 ethanol-compatible cars and trucks. See: http://www.gm.com/company/onlygm/livegreengoyellow/index.html They could have ramped up production of Flexible Fuel vehicles a decade ago. Oh well, at least they are dong something now. We have a Flexible Fuel Ford Explorer here at the Rawles Ranch. If the gasoline companies would just get busy and distribute E85 outside of the Midwest, we would be able to run our Explorer on something other than gas.

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SurvivalBlog reader Warhawke recommends “The Law ” by Bastiat. (I also highly recommend it. It is ground truth.) The text is available at: the Von Mises Institute web site: See: http://www.mises.org/story/2060

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Now key players in Norway (the largest oil producer in Europe) are leaning toward opening an oil bourse denominated in Euros. Hmmmm… See: http://www.energybulletin.net/13081.html

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A portent of things to come? The BBC reports: “India seals off   bird flu town.” See: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4739800.stm



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Chances are, if you’re ever going to be involved in a home defense situation with a shotgun, you’ll be in your birthday-suit. So unless you’ve got ammunition Velcroed to your a**, all the extra ammunition you’ll have will be on the gun.” – Greg Hamilton, Self Defense Instructor March, 1999



Note from JWR:

Don’t forget to send your entries for Round 3 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best contest entry will win a four day course certificate at Front Sight. (An up to $2,000 value!)  The deadline for entries for Round 3 is the last day of March, 2006. We’ve already had plenty of motivational pieces submitted.  Please keep your contest entries focused on practical skillsThanks!



A “Must Read” Article From France On Iran

The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020, LEAP/E2020, just posted a “must read” article. The article begins: “The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929…” See: http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm



Two Letters Re: Recommendations for Night Vision Goggles?

Fellow SurvivalBlog Readers:  
JWR is dead-on regarding his advice on NVGs or NVDs. I accumulated 11,000+ first pilot time and started out flying with
AN/PVS-5s. The ANVIS you are flying with are great for aviation or driving but suck for ground pounding. I like my nostalgic PVS-5s with the cut away for peripheral vision improvement but upgraded them to Gen3 tubes thru Ed Wilcox, Wilcox Engineering and Research: http://www.wilcoxeng-res.com/. A good, fair and highly qualified man to deal with.
For ground pounding, in addition to a dedicated NV weapon sight, I settled for a PVS-14D 72 line pair monocular from NVEC (Complete with data sheet, of course.). With the adjustable gain, I have the best of vision utilizing both eyes, one aided and one unaided. BUT you just can’t drive or fly with only one eye. 🙂
Since 1999, my favorite page, the most knowledgeable and filled with people like Lanny Leonard who actually like to help people is: http://nightvisiononline.com/index.cgi. If you want to learn about NV devices, here’s the place. No pushy sales and no pushy adds. Just NV talk and lots of good experience that rubs off. Hope this helps. Best Regards,- The Army Aviator

 

Hello James,
In my limited experience with NVGs, I have noticed lots of differences. You do not want to save money on these if you take home defense seriously. I personally think you are wasting your money on a Generation 1.
1). The intensifier tubes have a “shelf life”. Buying new is important if you can afford it. As you previously recommended, buying a scope rather than a pair of binocs is a must. Seeing your “threat” does nothing when you can’t even focus on your sights.
2). Pay attention to the field of view, minimum focus distance, etc…. I don’t know about you, but I would sure like to be able to see what is 20′-70′ away from me and make an assessment, some optics don’t focus on items closer than 50 yards!!!
3). Illuminators are a dead giveaway to someone else with NVGs. It is like the “raccoon” eye effect you mentioned, except in this case, it’s like turning on a flashing neon light pointing at you. This is true for Lasers as well. Also, it is my understanding that illuminators can cause burn on the intensifier tubes. My knowledge is limited, but I think this was true on all but the latest patented NVGs. Also, do some research. Do not take your recently purchased NV item and peer out the glass in your home or vehicle. In certain instances, (i.e.- illuminators), this can cause permanent intensifier burn out. I try to be careful with purchases that cost over $700,…hope this information is accurate and may save you the unknown danger to your potential lifeline!
4). There are many options with optics now. I personally am intrigued by ATN Corporation’s Day/Night Scope System. With a simple twist, you remove the NV system and the main body of the scope system stays mounted and keeps Zero! How cool is that? Kills two birds with one stone, Hence helping justify the expense, (at least to the Mrs., ha ha).
As as a side note, these products may be useful in obtaining game, (legally of course) or for that matter, protecting your heard of livestock from coyotes or similar predators. In my state, there is no clause against night vision as long as it does not “project a beam or ray of light”, (i.e.- such as a laser or a NVG illuminator). Food for thought. – The Wanderer

JWR Replies: Thanks for your comments gents. In addition to the The Army Aviator’s recommendation for Wilson Engineering and Research, as previously mentioned, three night vision gear vendors that I personally know and trust are JRH Enterprises, Ready Made Resources, and STANO Components, Inc.