Letter Re: Some Information on LDS Canneries

Jim–
The LDS Bishop Storehouse/Cannery list of foods available shows a storage life of 30 years for most properly packaged foods. The Cannery Food Commodities sheet includes this statement: “For longer-term storage, avoid teaching people to ‘store what you eat and eat what you store’.”
Think about it: in money terms, you don’t want to dip into the principle. The same is true for emergency food storage.

Here’s some sample prices as of December 22, 2007:
Hard red wheat $4.75 for a 25# bag (you’ll transfer the wheat to a food-grade bucket; for how-to, check SurvivalBlog archives)
Hard white wheat $6.25 for a 25# bag (ditto) (by the way, four 25# bags will fit into three 5 gallon buckets)
Black beans $4.72 for a #10 can (already treated and sealed)
Regular oats $2.00 for a #10 can (ditto)
If you buy 6 #10 cans (can be mixed), they’ll provide a box, plus two plastic lids for the cans.
There are more than 16 items on the list besides the above (including powdered milk, rice, sugar, apple slices, carrots, macaroni,onions, potato flakes, spaghetti, cocoa). Not all on the list have a shelf life of 30 years, but all are available treated in sealed cans.
Of course you should purchase small quantities from your local grocery store and try out cooked wheat berries, rolled oats, white beans, etc on your family to see if they will tolerate the stuff. Maybe even add it to your regular meals here and there so a sudden transition won’t add to the stress caused by a disaster (as taught in the “Rawles Gets You Ready” course).

Folks who aren’t members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints can buy these dry-pack food from the LDS Cannery, which is associated with the Bishop Storehouse. Be sure you ask for the Cannery because only Mormons are served from the Storehouse part of the Storehouse/Cannery complex.
Folks who aren’t members of the LDS Church can also volunteer to work in the Cannery and buy part of the wet-pack products they help can.

One great feature of volunteering (usually in 2 or 4 hour-shifts) and then buying is that you will know the food you can (chili, for example) is absolutely fresh. And you will also know the food is prepared and canned hygienically. Those who train and guide the volunteers make sure you are comfortable with the tasks you’ll be doing. It’s actually not only very educational, but also a lot of fun. Check to see what age limit there is on the teens you may want to bring with you.

When you call, ask what is being canned and when (the food to be canned depends on availability–think fruit in the fall, for example). Then find out what day/time slots are open that will fit your schedule. You can choose to volunteer one time only, or you can volunteer now and then, or you can set yourself up with an ongoing schedule if you wish. But you do need to pre-schedule. The staff will be very helpful.
It may be possible to can your own foods if you have enough to make it worthwhile. In that case, of course, you will pay for the cans and lids.
If you want to dry-pack your own food at home, current prices are $0.58 for a #10 can and $0.13 for a lid. A case to hold 6 #10 cans is $0.57.
Oxygen absorber packets are $.09 each.

You can find if a storehouse is near you by checking your phonebook White pages under The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints–look for the Bishop’s Storehouse listing; it will usually be right at or near the top of the LDS listings. If you don’t find a listing, call any of the listed Bishops; they all know where the nearest one is located. Even if a storehouse/cannery is some distance away, it may be worth the trip if you are buying in quantity.

Prior to Y2K, the LDS Canneries were mobbed with non-LDS, so limits were imposed. In the event of another like situation, limits would no doubt be imposed again. So, now would be a good time to get acquainted with what’s available and do a shopping run.
Don’t worry about being invited to hear about the LDS Church. Nobody will even try to hand you a pamphlet.

The form you will complete for your purchase will ask for your “ward” and “stake”; just write-in “non-member”.
I hope this will be helpful. – Bob B.

Odds ‘n Sods:

US Home Prices Fell in 2007 for First Time in Decades

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Eric sent us this piece that squares nicely with my comments yesterday: Central Bankers Confront A New Inflation Calculus

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Richard G. sent a link to this recent front page Wall Street Journal article: In a World Short Of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made. Richard’s comment: “While the major media is starting to admit to peak oil, I was somewhat surprised that the WSJ would run this piece about stockpiling food, starting relocalization networks, storing gasoline and propane, buying and storing physical gold, growing gardens, using bikes and horses for transportation, and even relocating . They also have a three minute video interviewing Mr. Wissner on the WSJ.com web site.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Fear not: for I have redeemed thee, I have called thee by thy name; thou art mine. When thou pass through the waters, I will be with thee; and through the rivers, they shall not overflow thee: when thou walkest through the fire, thou shalt not be burned; neither shall the flame kindle upon thee.” – Isaiah 43:1-2

Note from JWR:

The five day arctic cold spell that dominated most of the intermountain west has come to an end. Our kids enjoyed the sunny skies and sledding, even though the daytime highs were around 15 degrees (Fahrenheit), and the nighttime lows were around -10 F. Our horse Money Pit looked woeful, with rings of frost around the eyes and a frosty chin each morning. The clear weather also provided some beautiful pinkish Alpenglühen on the peaks of The Unnamed Range of Mountains each evening, and some awe-inspiring golden glow at sunrise each morning–once with the full moon setting in the west right over a auric snowy peak.

The clear weather allowed us to make our semi-annual sojourn to COSTCO, where we did our best imitation of shoppers from the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. Seeing our big industrial flat cart heaped up with sacks of rice and cases of canned goods, a fellow shopper asked: “Do you have a restaurant?” I replied, “No, we have teenagers.”.

Now we are back to overcast, snow showers, and highs in the 30s, which is more typical for this time of year.

Davos Delegates Deeply Denigrate the Dissipated Dollar

The once Almighty US Dollar got its comeuppance this week at the annual Davos, Switzerland conclave. After too many years of maxing out her credit card at Macy’s, the weak sister of the currency world was strongly chided by her siblings. The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented one-day 75 basis point cut in interest rates was seen as exactly what it was: a desperation measure. Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) said that there is little chance of a European interest rate cut, to match the Fed’s rate cut Soon after, Steve Forbes went so far as to call the US Dollar policy ‘Zimbabwe Economics’. Not surprisingly, the US Dollar Index is still bouncing along the gutter of the high street at around 75.90 (it now takes more than $1.46 to buy a Euro), and the spot price of gold spiked to over $921 per ounce in London and New York trading before settling to around $910.

What does the castigation of the US Dollar at Davos mean to the average American? In the short term, very little. But in the long term, look for a much weaker dollar in foreign exchange. This means that imported goods are going to get a lot more expensive. If you have been forestalling buying any big ticket imported items, buy them soon. That $250 British Berkefeld water that you’ve wanted may cost $400 or more, next year. (That is, if you really need something for preparedness, and you can pay cash.) Obviously recession is right around the corner. That means lower stock prices, big layoffs, a cascade of economic troubles overseas, declining house prices, more mortgage foreclosures, big bailout programs, and so on.

In my estimation, sometime in the next two years the economic and currencies pendulums will reach a collective turning point. Foreigners will simply stop buying US Treasuries–at least at the currently-offered rates of return In order to finance the Federal debt, the Treasury department will have to offer higher rates of return. Then they will be inextricably stuck. Higher interest rates will tank the economy. But then it may get worse: Like the Banana Republic treasury that it has truly become, the US Treasury will get into the spiral of offering higher and higher rates of return to lure overseas investors. Interest rates will start to accelerate, as they did in the late 1970s. Smelling blood in the water (pardon the mixed metaphor) the foreign investors will play the cycle for all that it is worth, pushing Treasury rates up past 20% annual interest.

What does the Federal Reserve’s recent big interest rate cut tell us? It is now apparent that Ben Bernanke and his deck chair rearranging committee are subservient to Wall Street. Rather than accepting the natural outcome of a normal market cycle , they are furiously trying to pump liquidity in hopes of propping up stock prices. They cannot afford to let mutual funds and pension funds collapse. (Nor does the Republican party want to lose their soon-to-be-retiring Baby Boomer political base, in the process.) In the process the Fed is destroying the value of the dollar and making the inevitable economic dislocation of the forestalled recession even worse.

SurvivalBlog readers are hereby advised to batten down the hatches. Be ready to lose your job. (See my previous advice about starting a home-based business that you can fall back on, if need be.) Be ready to relocate on short notice. Be ready for a recession that will go on for so long and get so bad that it will be called The Second Great Depression. Be ready for substantially higher crime rates. Be ready for mass inflation. (As I’ve stated before, given his predisposition, Ben Bernanke will try to inflate his way out of this mess. He will monetize the debt.) Be ready for drastic measures by the government, including “soak the rich” tax schemes–that will actually target the middle class. Be ready to help out your idiot brother (the one with the matching pair of Jet Skis and the 72″ plasma television), who will appear on your doorstep, pleading that he can’t pay his mortgage or his credit card bills. Be ready to feed your family out of your own garden and food storage. Be ready for your employer to get suddenly bought out by a European conglomerate. Be ready for $6 per gallon gasoline and milk prices. Be ready for any stock-heavy 401(k) and pension funds to be “wiped out” overnight. Be ready, folks!

Two Letters Re: Retreat Group Recruiting and Organization

James,
Some tips when looking for like-minded suitable people for a survivalist group:

At work look for people who carry a pocket knife–a real pocket knife not a tiny little Swiss Army knife– in these politically correct times it’s one of the first thing that sticks out in an office environment
When sharing a ride to lunch you may notice some people always have some hiking/camping gear always in their cars. Having a spare pair of shoes such as hiking boots at work.
Observe if anyone goes for a walk at lunch or any other indication that they are staying fit/prepared.
Pay attention to what people say if someone mentions politics, someone may be very obviously trying very hard to hold back when someone spews utter nonsense.
See if anyone ever mentions hiking, camping, or hunting during conversation.
Most of us spend a significant amount of time in the office. By finding a coworker you will have an added advantage if you need to bug out from work. Even 2 people traveling together to a common destination and following a well rehearsed procedure will increase your chances of survival and getting out of immediate danger area in the
first few hours.
Try joining a college or local marksmanship/gun club.
Join a hiking/camping club or group.
There will be quite an overlap between these groups and those are individuals that may be a good starting point.
People in either of the groups are already showing some interest in some of the skills, have at least some of the necessary gear and training required.
Pay attention to Boy Scouts stickers on cars, NRA stickers, political affiliation stickers.
Someone who was previously in the Boy Scouts or emergency preparedness organization such as Civil Air Patrol or local Department of Emergency Management often has the proper values, training and willingness to continue training .

Your local neighbors should not be overlooked. You are living in close proximity and can often tell when someone brings back lots of #10 cans from COSTCO or is dragging big green boxes of bulk ammo from Cabela’s or trying to quickly toss in several rifle cases in the trunk without alarming neighbors.
You are also in a pretty good position to observe how often or if your neighbors go camping, if they seem to have a spare rugged SUV always loaded up for the next camping trip etc.
Seeing what kind of signs pop up on the neighbor’s lawn during the voting season can also be very telling.

Always use your brain and really pay attention, you may be surprised by what you’ll notice about people you haven’t given a second thought of before.
Good groups aren’t recruited in my experience, they just from from several people/several couples who end up going hiking, camping, shooting together and have similar political and moral beliefs. Talk of survival retreats sort of comes up on its own without being forced. – Steven

 

Mr. Rawles:
After our last Ron Paul Meetup, I was circulating and greeting folks. Out of “the corner of my ear” I heard the words, “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse.” I spun around and there were two women talking about your novel and our present economic condition.
As a shameless plug for my candidate, the Ron Paul Meetups in readers’ areas might be a way to network with some like-minded folks.
Godspeed, – Brian in Wisconsin

Letter Re: “Life After People” Documentary Series

Jim,
You noted that several SurvivalBlog readers had mentioned the “Life After People” documentary series, in advance of its first airing. I just saw it. What a waste of time. This show provided nothing of any use to anyone. It seems as if it was an excuse to give the computer graphics specialists something to do while the screen writers are on strike. I believe this show was primarily a vehicle to promote the idea that humans are destroying the planet. It kept stating how better off the planet, animal life, the oceans and their wildlife were now that man was gone. Most of the ‘experts’ seemed gleeful at the prospect. A strong argument for mother earth and for population reduction, though on an extreme scale. Another big ‘What if’ movie. They kept showing how things like buildings, bridges, cars, film, CDs et cetera deteriorate when man is not their to keep things up. Useless information considering their would be no reason to worry if we’re all dead! – Jason in North Idaho

Odds ‘n Sods:

I got the chance to watch the first three episodes of “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles”. I found the show was worth watching. There are no great earth-shattering revelations about preparedness, but it sure beats the mindless drivel usually found on network television. For those of us without televisions, full episodes are available at the Fox network web site.

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In a recent e-mail, Naish Piazza of Front Sight sent a link to key web site to bookmark: Family WatchDog.The site provides Google maps showing where registered sex offenders live in proximity to your home.

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A reader forwarded this sobering page that details one man’s experience with his negligent discharge from a .45 ACP pistol. Ouch! Keep the four laws of firearms safety in mind whenever you handle guns.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“It has never been clear to me why increased magazine capacity in a defensive pistol is particularly choice. The bigger the magazine the bigger the gun, and the bigger the gun the harder it is to get hold of for people with small hands. And what, pray, does one need all those rounds for? How many lethal antagonists do you think you are going to be able to handle? Once when Bruce Nelson was asked by a suspect if the thirteen-round magazine in the P35 [Browning Hi-Power] was not a big advantage, Bruce’s answer was, “Well, yes, if you plan to miss a lot.” The highest score I know of at this time achieved by one man against a group of armed adversaries was recorded in (of all places) the Ivory Coast! There, some years ago, a graduate student of mine laid out five goblins, with four dead and one totaled for the hospital. Of course there is the episode of Alvin York and his eight, but there is some dispute about that tale. (If you read it over very carefully you will see what I mean.) Be that as it may, I see no real need for a double column magazine. It is all the rage, of course, and like dual air bags, it is a popular current sales gimmick.” – The Late Col. Jeff Cooper

Letter Re: Does Future Inflation Justify a Higher Level of Indebtedness?

Sir,
In reading the recent economic commentary on your blog site I have to wonder – if one is convinced that we’re to see a significant increase in inflation, then why get out of debt? Take a mortgage for instance: with decent credit it is now possible to refinance (or purchase) and get a fixed rate mortgage under 5% and rates will likely go lower before we’re done. With tax breaks and even normal inflation this is essentially free money. In an inflationary environment (which I don’t argue we’re in) it would make sense to keep this debt and instead use your cash to purchase things that will increase or at least hold their value. You’ll later be able to pay that mortgage down with cheaper dollars or not at all if TEOTWAWKI actually occurs. Obviously nobody should be carrying credit card debt and getting out of variable rate mortgages would be a good idea but debt in and of itself isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Obviously I don’t know what direction the markets will go, nobody does (or at least they aren’t telling). But I do feel quite safe sitting on cash and nibbling on stocks as they come down in price. One always must consider the horrible possibility that the world as we know it will not end.) Regards, – Steve G.

JWR Replies: I cannot in good conscience recommend that anyone go into debt, stay in debt, or go deeper in debt if they can avoid it. The nascent economic recession will bring with it some huge layoffs–all the way from multinational corporations down to your local “Mom and Pop” stores. In an age of layoffs, debt will not be your friend. Even if you have debts that are being serviced with increasingly cheaper dollars you will still need an income to pay your debts! If you lose your job, you could then lose your car, and then your house. Keep in mind that although mass inflation at the consumer level seems very likely, it is not a certainty. Albeit much less likely, we could see price and wage deflation–something like the situation in the 1930s. In such deflationary times, all forms of debt would be absolutely dreaded.

Letter Re: How Much Ammunition to Store?

1

Mr. Rawles:
My wife and I enjoy your web site immensely. I do have one question for you. I know we are targeting how much food/water supply we need for long-term survive but how much ammo do you think the average family should strive to purchase/store? Thanks, – David K.

JWR Replies:
It is important to maintain balance in your preparations. Food storage, first aid supplies, and heirloom seed storage should be priorities. But after those have been taken acre of, it makes sense to stock up on ammunition. As long as you store your ammo in sealed military surplus cans, there is no risk in over-estimating your needs, since ammunition has a 50+ year storage life if protected from oil vapors and humidity. Consider any extra ammo the ideal barter item. The late Col. Jeff Cooper rightly called it “ballistic wampum.”

For your barter inventory, I recommend that you stick to the most common calibers: For rifles: .22 Long Rifle, .223, .308, .30-06 (and in the British Commonwealth, .303 British.) For handguns: 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP. For shotguns, 12 gauge and 20 gauge. As I’ve previously mentioned, you might also buy a small quantity of the “regional favorite” deer cartridge for your area, as well as your local police or sheriff’s department standard calibers. (Ask at you local gun shop.)

I consider the following figures minimums:
2,000 per battle rifle
500 per hunting rifle
800 per primary handgun
2,000 per .22 rimfire
500 per riotgun

If you can afford it, three times those figures would meet the “comfort level” of most survivalists. In an age of inflation, consider that supply better than money in the bank.

Ammo prices have recently been galloping, so do some comparison pricing before you buy. Bring photocopies and “print screen” print-outs with you when you shop, as bargaining tools. Typically, the larger gun shows each have several large ammunition vendors.

Some Internet ammunition vendors that I recommend are: AIM Surplus, Cheaper Than Dirt, Dan’s Ammo, J&G Sales, Midway, AmmoMan.com, Natchez Shooter Supply, and The Sportsman’s Guide. Both to save money and to maximize your privacy–since umpteen heavy crates being unloaded from the back of a UPS truck is pretty obvious–I recommend that you be willing to drive a distance take delivery in person from a regional vendor. Ammo is best bought by the 3/4 ton pickup load! Also, keep in mind that by buying in large quantities all at once from a big vendor, you will typically get ammo for each caliber all from the same lots, which will result in more consistent accuracy.

Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update

Winter Home Inspections
Although winter time retreat shopping can afford many positives like reduced prices and motivated sellers, there can also be a few downsides as well. While purchasing your retreat during the winter, especially when there is a considerable amount of snow on the ground, extra care must be taken during your inspection period. Many surprises may await you when the spring thaw arrives. Among them may be hidden trash and slash piles that will have to burned or removed, road grading and repair work, downed frost free spigots, fencing repairs, vegetation removal and major grounds keeping issues that are hidden under the snow. That nice rock flowerbed may be a heap when the snow melts due to falling ice/snow off the roof. Also, varmints and pest infiltration can be a major issue especially in unoccupied dwellings. On a side note a recent home inspection report here stated “The woodpeckers appear to have mounted an attack on the front porch eve”. Funny? Absolutely! But not to the new owner. Beware of unoccupied dwellings for sale, especially in the winter. Snow hides many maintenance items that may need to be addressed and could be quite costly. Asking the seller to plow the driveway may be one thing but asking them to remove the snow load all the way around the house and each out building so the inspector can complete a thorough inspection may be an issue, especially with upwards of three solid frozen feet of snow on the ground here in the mid-range elevations of northern Idaho. This cost may range upwards of over a thousand dollars and sellers who have had their property overpriced and on the market for a while will not be motivated to incur such costs unless you release some earnest money to pay for it, and the fee reimbursed should you actually purchase the property. Why? Who knows, it makes no sense to me, but some sellers are very stubborn, to their own detriment.

Here is a list of items to make sure are working and not damaged during a winter time purchase: Well and well pump(s), all water lines (have they burst?), septic lines and tank, any generators and off grid solar components (have the batteries been neglected or are they due for replacement or upgrade?), wood decking (has the snow cracked or otherwise damaged the decks/railings/steps), wood stoves and piping/flues (creosote build-up or other deferred maintenance like loose flashing at the roof seal?), roofing (has the snow load loosened or ripped off any shingles?)–a good reason to have metal roof (for fire protection as well), any appearance of water intrusion into the basement or crawl space in winter is really going to be an issue in the spring. It is recommended that the buyer be present at the home inspection and normally a good inspector will let the buyer follow them around the home for most of the inspection. Most inspectors will be happy to let you tag along, as you’re paying them and they will explain certain details of demerit or merit, as you go.

If the retreat you’re buying has been on the market for a while, then your agent should have visited the property during the summer/fall months and therefore should be aware of any issues regarding road, vegetation, downed timber, and landscaping issues that wouldn’t be obvious under snow cover. This is one more reason to seek out a qualified retreat real estate agent in your desired locale.

Survival Supplies Storage
Once you have closed escrow, the work begins at your new retreat. As I have stated before several times, before TEOTWAWKI the threat of fire will be either first or second on the list of major threats, next to theft. Speaking with a client this morning I was very specific that they should store their supplies ‘assuming’ that the retreat was going to burn down. Yes, having just spent a bunch of money on a retreat one may feel a bit annoyed, but storing expensive supplies under the house or hidden in walled over closets and crawl spaces is at best mediocre and dangerous at worst. If there is not a full concrete built basement under the house where a bunker can be walled off to survive a fire and water damage then an alternatively located underground bunker must be built, period. It would be better to put a bit less cash down on the property and save $15,000 for building a self contained storage bunker than to lose it all during fire season, or worse yet from a small propane heater malfunction– the heater that must be left on during the winter in order to keep your water pipes from freezing while the place is not attended. Not living at your retreat full time has its issues, none of which cannot be overcome with a little forethought.

A simple excavated 12’x12′ (finished size) underground concrete room–typically insulated concrete form (ICF) block–with proper drainage on the sides/underneath and a small CONEX container placed on top would probably be enough for anyone’s basic storage of supplies. (Clothes, storage food, medical supplies, tents, sleeping supplies, guns, and ammo). These supplies would be needed to survive if you were to find the main retreat structure just a smoking hole, upon arrival. Note that the CONEX should have a secured internal vertical entrance door leading to the shelter. [JWR Adds: in addition to a stout lock and equally stout hasp, the trapdoor should be concealed beneath something that doesn’t look worth stealing, such as burlap sacks full of rags, prominently marked “Extra shop rags”.] The rest of the less essential and less valuable supplies can be hidden in the retreat itself, but always have a reserve in place. Owning a retreat is a blessing, and very few have the opportunity. Just be diligent about your supplies, since storage consideration are as important as the retreat itself.

If you have any questions about retreat real estate in northern or north central Idaho, then please contact Todd Savage via e-mail at: toddsavage@meadowcrk.com

Odds ‘n Sods:

Loyal content contributor RBS sent us this “must bookmark” link: The Librums’s PDF Collection. It is veritable gold mine of mostly out-of-print books on practical skills.They are primarily late 19th Century, but there are also a few modern titles like the “US Army Special Forces Medical Handbook”, “Where There is No Dentist”, and “Where There is No Doctor.” They have lots of free gardening books, formularies, recipe books, and so forth. The usual provisos on 19th Century book reprints apply: Most notably, safety standards in those days were not quite the same as today’s, so be careful around harmful or explosive vapors, unshielded blades, and so forth.

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Eric flagged this one: Steve Forbes Says U.S. Dollar Policy Amounts to `Zimbabwe Economics’

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Charley S. mentioned that the Fedco Seed Co-op, based in Maine (but with growers all over the country) is by far the best value in heirloom seeds. Charley says: “You get, on average, twice as much seed for your money (and I’ve compared them, variety by variety, with all the best-known companies. They also have the most extensive, information-packed, and well-written catalog.”

More Angst on Wall Street

The recent overseas stock sell-off inspired the White House and congress to start talking about manna from heaven, in the form of tax rebate checks. The same day, the Federal Reserve announced what can only be seen as a desperation measure–a one-day .75% interest rate cut on two key rates–has done little to reassure the traders on Wall Street. The market is starting to make some wild daily swings, mostly downward. This piece from The New York Times sums up the big picture nicely: Worries That the Good Times Were Mostly a Mirage. Meanwhile, we read: Plenty to chew on for great minds of Davos. All the signs point to a big, deep, recession. Even Herculean amounts of liquidity pumping and “helicopter dropping” won’t stop this one.

The core of the financial problem is that bankers won’t make loans when they cannot properly evaluate risk. As I’ve noted before, the credit collapse was triggered by the subprime mortgage debacle, and the contagion spread to all sectors of the banking world. There are so many loans that are wrapped up in so many “repackaged” aggregations and “investment vehicles” that nobody really knows who owns what debts, and exactly by what underlying assets they are backed. The CDO and SIV pundits use the term “marked to market.” But I have coined the term marked to mystery. That is a better description of what is going on. The global credit market is now like a giant mushroom farm–where everyone is kept in the dark and fed horse manure. There are mountains of mystery debts held by countless corporations, governments, and institutions. In this unprecedented credit environment, ultra-low interest rates will not revive the sagging economy. The bankers are still petrified, and who can blame them? We recently learned that even the credit ratings agencies were in on the sub-prime swindle. So the bankers can longer trust the word of the “expert analysts” at Moody’s and S&P.

No doubt the President’s Working Committee on Markets (commonly called the Plunge Protection Team) will be working late and ordering pizza delivery. It think that Ben Bernanke & Company will need bigger helicopters, and more of them. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Be prepared for a deep recession with layoffs, tax-funded bailout shenanigans, “incentive” programs, stagflation, huge write-offs of derivatives losses, failed municipal bond funds, the whole works. The big question is: will over the counter derivatives trading carry on as before, without too much disruption? If the answer is no–if there is a derivatives meltdown, then all bets are off. We are talking about possibly hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivatives in play at any given time. A full scale derivatives meltdown would probably trigger a global depression that could last decades, and topple national governments. I’m dead serious about this.

For those of you that took my advice and bought silver and gold, congratulations. You will at least have your capital protected, and might even profit handsomely. Lower interest rates mean a weaker dollar, and that means higher precious metals prices. Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has said that there is little chance of a European interest rate cut, to follow the Fed’s suit. So keep watching the US Dollar Index in the months to come. Any further interest rate cuts by the Fed will probably result in a huge devaluation of the dollar.