Letter Re: The Fragility of the US Power Grid

Hello:
I enjoy your web site every day and am very close to the 10 Cent Challenge, I promise. I work for a medium sized electric utility in the west and I can tell you first hand how weak and ratty the executives have allowed the system to become. The name of the utility game has now become ‘defer maintenance to artificially inflate the price of your stock and pay your executives large salaries with massive stock options.’

In the old days we had over 250 guys in construction and maintenance staying on top of pole change outs, system upgrades, prescribed maintenance, etc. Now we have under 80 employees in that department and the system has doubled in size. The company, as most electric utilities have done, now depends on contractors to do the work, mostly to get away from paying for pensions and health care. Contractors that will leave in a moments notice for a better deal and more money.

Recently we had a flood in our main SCADA control office (because no one cleaned the silted over storm drains for years!) and most of the entire system for a city of a million people was off for about 12 hours. When it came back up our protective relays were out and the power kept going on and off. A large defense contractor, who makes cruise, tomahawk, maverick and other missiles for our military had to shut down production and send over 6,000 workers home because the power could not stay on.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. G. Gordon Liddy wrote an article in Omni magazine way back in the late 1980s that illustrated how vulnerable America’s electrical infrastructure really is. One man with a rifle can take out a substation transformer that costs a million dollars and takes a year to be delivered, if you are lucky enough to find one available. One company bought five substation transformers from India for $12 million, because they are desperate, and all five of them failed initial tests before they could be energized. They are now junk.

Buy a generator. Make sure that it will run on propane. The natural gas companies aren’t much better. – Cactus Jim

Letter Re: Bugging Out: Taking Your Home and Gear with You, by Bob. H.

Jim,
I read the 18 Oct. 2007 posting concerning Recreational Vehicles (RVs) as a retreat vehicle. Your posting’s of August 10th 2005 titled Batman Fantasy Land, Vehicular Retreating and Sea Retreating were interesting and very confusing to say the least. After reading your August 10th 2005 post here are some thoughts.

With all the talk about BOVs, BOBs, and G.O.O.D. it seems like a waist of bandwidth on your part since you advocate the Siegfried or Maginot Line, Atlantic Wall type system. You know–fixed fortified emplacements.

Does this mean that you would stay in your fixed retreat no matter what? I think not. I know I can hide an RV easier than you can hide your house. Does your in place theory mean that owning a small plot of land away from the city to park your RV on is a bad thing?

You make it seem like anyone using an RV can only carry one of everything. When I travel in my car I carry enough gear for all. My small car can carry plenty let alone an RV. When you bug out can you use the bathroom on a toilet (not a can) without stopping? Can one drive and the other sleep in a real bed? The list goes on.

A pickup camper on a 4X4 can carry groups of stuff and go almost anywhere.

Last time I checked, doctors do not make house calls, you have to drive to one no matter what, that is if there is one to drive to. (Reference the August 10, 2005)

I have always been an advocate of moving when needed. If you were in New Orleans before Katrina, where would you have [gone] afterwards? Would you have been the guy with the warm beer from his bar in downtown New Orleans or the guy in the air conditioned motel in Texas? I was the guy in the air conditioned house in Montana with the ability to move if needed.

Yep I am in the middle of one of the largest missile fields in the world but I am also in the fourth largest state and we have more places to go than you can shake a stick at.

History has shown that fixed postings have not faired well. Our Military in WWII, Vietnam, Desert Storm and now the GWOT have no fixed fortified emplacements unless you count the bases they use. Mobile is the key to survival. Picture this, You have a paper target that does not move, you can hit it pretty much at will . But hitting a moving target is much harder. Have you ever gone deer hunting and tried to shoot a running deer? – Mark in Montana

JWR Replies: I think that you must have missed some of the earlier SurvivalBlog posts and some of my other writings that clarify my position. This issue was discussed at considerable length in the first year of the blog (see the Archives) and in my book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation. As I’ve written previously in SurvivalBlog, I strongly prefer the strategy of fixed retreats over nomadic approaches to survivalism. But I have never ruled out mobility as a tactic. Nor have I ever suggested holding one’s ground at all costs. There must always be a “Plan B”. If that necessitates “bugging out” and abandoning one’s land, livelihood, and a portion of one’s logistics, then so be it. Plan accordingly.

It is noteworthy that in my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”, I portrayed two quite similar retreat groups, both with “fixed” retreats. Without spoiling it for those who haven’t yet read the novel, I can say that one of those groups chose to hold their ground to confront an invading army, while the other abandoned their retreat to melt away into the adjoining National Forest. It was the group that stayed at their retreat that suffered, badly.

My main objection to the “land mobile” and “sea mobile” nomadic retreat approaches is that they do not allow for a multi-year base of logistics. Once the supplies carried on board an RV are expended, unless blessed with amazing success at gardening, you soon will be reduced to the level of refugee. And unless you have secreted caches of fuel and have considerable good fortune to be able to reach them as needed, you will also soon be on foot. If the history of the 20th Century taught us anything, it is that the least desirable category for a citizen in turbulent times is refugee.

Mobility has it uses, but mobility for the sake of mobility has so many drawbacks that is borders on foolishness. In the context of a full scale economic collapse with widespread lawlessness, mobility means the opportunity to run into one ambush after another. It is far better to have a well-stocked and self-sufficient retreat with the option of mobility, if need be. Your mileage may vary, but if your are going to opt for land mobile retreating, I suggest that you invest in a couple of stout APCs with belt-feds. You may need them.

Odds ‘n Sods:

I recently had a reader in Quebec (who prefers to be anonymous) e-mail me to ask if I thought that the gold market was nearing its peak. The short answer is no. Adjusted for the inflation of today’s US dollar, the 1980 high in the spot price of gold would be over $2,200 per ounce today. I expect the next peak to be somewhere north of $1,500 per ounce. To be conservative and safe, if you have a large position in gold, you should start to gradually cash out once gold passes the $800 mark. Don’t be greedy and try to time the absolute peak. The chances of doing that with any accuracy are slim. Just plan to sell 10% of your holdings at each $100 interval, once $800 is touched. Where to put the proceeds, as you liquidate? Certainly not in dollars or in anything that is dollar-denominated. Plan to put the proceeds in other tangibles. A few suggestions: guns, full capacity magazines, ammunition, top quality hand tools, productive farm land (that can double as a survival retreat), and perhaps some European optics (rifle scopes and binoculars). Until we are the the very bottom of the upcoming recession (or depression) avoid fine art, classic cars, boats, resort real estate, or other luxury items. They will be dirt cheap if you wait for their respective markets to bottom.

   o o o

Michael Z. Williamson suggested the rifle chamber adapters made by MC Ace. I mentioned those in the early days of SurvivalBlog, but they are worth mentioning again. That company bought the tooling that was originally developed by Harry Owen, who advertised in the back of The American Rifleman magazine for more than a decade. We have several of them here at the Rawles Ranch. The one that we use the most often allows a .308 Winchester to shoot .30 US Carbine. They are great for target shooting and small game hunting. They presumably would also a way to be able to use up ammunition that you pick up in barter, after TSHTF. Just be advised that your point of aim will vary considerably versus your rife’s normal chambering, so do some paper target testing at known distances and prepare drop table cards, laminate them, and store those with each adapter. OBTW I should also mention that hey are also fairly slow to use (with some calibers you need to poke out the fired cases from the adapter with a dowel), so they should never be considered for self-defense use.

   o o o

Russ sent us this one: Portents of A Nuclear Al-Qaeda.

   o o o

Because of some business commitments with visiting SurvivalBlog clients, the Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update will be omitted this week, but it is expected to return next week.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"It is not the fact of liberty but the way in which liberty is exercised that ultimately determines whether liberty itself survives." – Dorothy Thompson (1894-1961) Ladies Home Journal, May 1958

Note from JWR:

Today we present another article for Round 13 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $2,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. I will again be sending out a few complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots” as “honorable mention” awards. Round 13 ends on November 30th. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Bugging Out: Taking Your Home and Gear with You, by Bob. H.

I am a 23-year veteran of the Recreational Vehicle (RV) industry. I have been in survival mode since the early 1980s after seeing the movies Mad Max and Red Dawn. I started selling RVs in 1984 and thought they were really cool. As the world changed and my concerns grew I started looking at them as a great survival tool. RVs have changed a lot since then. any RVs are fully self contained, meaning you have on board water for drinking bathing and cooking, toilet, climate control, refrigeration and sleeping. Many have onboard generators, deep cycle batteries, power invertors, AC to DC power supplies, and photovoltaic solar power. The following is should help you decide which one is right for your situation.

Types of RVs

Towables.The tow rating for you vehicle will determine your limitation. the following links are the resource I use every day to determine tow capabilities. www.campinglife.com and www.trailerlife.com You will need to consider the weight of the passengers,fuel,water and gear. Considering you will be bugging out and taking everything including the kitchen sink, you should find a unit with the least weight that accommodates your needs. Towing a trailer that is too heavy is dangerous and hard on the tow vehicle. You can’t afford an accident or breakdown.

Motorized Vehicles. There is a wide variety to choose from. Class A motor homes (“bus style”), Class C motor homes “van front with cab over bed” Class B motor homes Van conversions. Class Bs are small and easy to drive but are limited to one or two people. They are a great for towing a trailer. Class Cs offer the most sleeping capacity. The cab-over bed will easily accommodate two adults or three children. A 28ft motor home can accommodate 8 to 10.These too make good tow vehicles. For those of you with out budget concerns, Class Bs and Cs are available with 4 wheel drive! Class As are available in gas or diesel. Generally larger and more expensive making them harder to manage both driving and on the budget. They offer the most basement storage and the highest carrying capacity.
Truck Campers. Campers that slide in the back of pickups. If you own a 4×4 pickup you can take your home just about anywhere. Depending on your set up you can still tow a boat or trailer.

Sport Utility Recreational Vehicle (SURVs) [aka “Toy Haulers”]. My personal favorite! Trailers, Fifth wheels and Motor homes with a garage! Perfect for taking the ATV, Motorcycle or just a lot of gear.They come in just about any configuration you can imagine. Most have onboard generators. They usually have 20 or 40 gallon built in gas tanks with 12 VDC pump fueling stations. Fuel stations allow you to fill your ATV or motorcycle’s fuel tank.

You need to consider your budget. Cash or finance? You are better to keep you cash in your pocket if you can. Most dealers offer competitive financing. Depending on your situation the interest may be tax deductible. To calculate a payment you can figure on about $10 per every $1,000 that you borrow. That’s about $200 per month on a $20,000 loan.
You can find older RVs for as little as free. I get calls from people who just want to get them out of their yards.Try putting an ad in the local paper. “will remove unwanted RVs”. Generally they need some work, but if your handy, they aren’t that hard to fix. Stay away from vehicles with leaks! Check for soft floors and rippled ceilings or walls. Look in the cabinets for signs of water damage.

Hitch Equipment. Let me make this very clear: Buy the right stuff! People die everyday because the don’t have the right hitch set up. Check the weight of you trailer and buy equipment that has a higher weight rating than the Gross Vehicle Weight Rating of the trailer you are towing. Always use sway control. Make sure you [electric trailer] brake control is adjusted properly every time.

Power:
“Shore power” RVs are either 30 or 50 Amp when your on the grid or running off a generator. AC power runs to the converter and is split to an AC circuit breaker panel and also converted [with a AC to DC transformer] to 12 volt DC. The AC runs to the outlets and appliances such as refrigerator, air conditioning, microwave and water heater. The 12 volt side of the system can also run on just deep cycle battery. The battery will charge when plugged into AC power. It can also be charged from your tow vehicle if wired properly. You lights,water pump, spark ignition for water heater and the blower motor for the furnace all operate on 12v. Extra batteries and a way to charge them are a must. Deep cycle batteries are preferred but auto batteries work if you have no other choice. Solar power is a great option. I get all of mine from ICP Global. They have a great calculator to determine your needs. You should also consider a power inverter. They change battery power to AC power.

LP Gas
Your furnace [space heater], water heater, stove and refrigerator all work on liquid propane (LP) gas. Most of these appliances also require 12 volt DC power. Most motor homes have built in tanks mounted to the frame, which can be a problem for refilling unless you by an adapter to fill the tank from a portable tank. Trailers and fifth wheels have 20 pound or 30 pound tanks that are removable. They are the same as your [back yard barbeque] gas grill’s tank. LP is safe when stored properly so stocking up on extra takes is a good idea. I watch for people throwing away old gas grills and take them just for the tank.

Climate
When choosing your RV you need to consider where you will be living. Look for one with good insulation. Newer units with ducted roof air conditioners have much thicker roofs. Look for an enclosed and heated underbelly. This help keep the tanks from freezing. You should also find away to skirt the bottom to stop airflow underneath. Straw bales work great for this. Heat strips work well if power is not an issue.

Maintenance & Storage
Have your vehicle loaded and ready to go. Make a check list of monthly inspection items.
Check tire pressure on all tires including the spare(s) once a month.
Test electric, pluming and gas systems
Check battery(s)
Check for water leaks at roof line, doors and windows
Check Hitch equipment and Brake control/wiring.
You can use your RV as a pantry. Keep it stocked with food and water. Rotate it with your supply in your home.
Keep it supplied with sleeping bags, towels, health products and a comprehensive first aid kit, including prescription meds.
Maps, compass and a list of easy to get to out of the way gas and grocery stores.
Hunting and fishing equipment.
If you are storing it for an extended period of time use an RV cover. Plastic tarps will trap moisture and create mold. This tends to destroy the roof membrane.
This is not a complete list by any means but remember to check the weight of your vehicle when it is loaded. You can take your towable or motor home to a truck stop or gravel pit and get the actual weight.

JWR Adds: See my comments in SurvivalBlog on August,10, 2005 on RVs as “Get Out of Dodge” Vehicles and other “land mobile” retreating options. This approach has some huge drawbacks! With the exception of wealthy “snowbirds” that can afford to have two fully stocked retreats, I do not recommend buying RVs! But, as they say, your mileage may vary.

Letter Re: The Fragility of the US Power Grid

James:
An article posted on 10/16 on Internet Evolution has some sobering thoughts on the state of network security of the US power grid. It is written by Ira Winkler, a former NSA analyst and current security expert. His prognosis: “the power grid remains incredibly vulnerable.”

Keep up the good work, – MP

JWR Replies: In my writings, I often refer to the national power grids (there are actually three, eastern and western, and Texas) as the lynchpins of our modern societal infrastructure. Any interruption for more than a few weeks could precipitate a societal collapse. There is just so much of what we depend on for our modern way of life that is dependent on grid power. The telephone networks have backup generators, but those only have a limited fuel supply. Even the supply of piped natural gas is dependent on grid power, since it is used to power the compressor stations that pressurize the natural gas pipelines. I am of the firm opinion that existing Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition.(SCADA) software implementations represent a great vulnerability. The new generation Web-enabled SCADA systems only compounds the problem. (Now, terrorists don’t even need to go on-site to inject a computer virus and foul up the power and water utilities’ switching and valve hardware. They can now do it remotely.)

Odds ‘n Sods:

McC. flagged this article for us: Japan and China lead flight from the dollar

   o o o

Reader RBS suggested this article by Captain Hook, over at the Financial Sense University web site: The Panic Window Approaches

   o o o

RBS also sent us this: Hedge funds: Be afraid of those definitions.

   o o o

I was recently told about The Utility Belt Blog (aka “Viridari Bushcraft and Preparedness”). This blog has a great mix of posts on outdoor survival, practical shooting, general preparedness, and everyday carry

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The gap between future US receipts and future US government obligations now totals $65.9 trillion, a sum that is impossible for the US to reconcile, which means the US is now technically bankrupt." – St. Louis Federal Reserve Review, July/August issue 2006

Note from JWR:

A reminder that the special “six pack sale” for autographed copies of the latest 33 chapter edition of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” is ending soon. The sale price of a box of six books is now just $90, postage paid. (Normally they are $22 per copy, but during this sale you get six autographed copies for $90, mailed in a Priority Mail Flat Rate box, sent to anywhere in the United States, including APO/FPO addresses.) This sale ends on October 31st. This is your chance to buy some extra copies for Christmas presents.

Two Letters Re: Freeway Gridlock and G.O.O.D. Route Planning

Sir:
In response to the article you posted titled: “Nightmare on Schuylkill: A first-hand account.” I can tell you first hand exactly how awful that highway is. I’ve lived in the Philadelphia region my entire life, and from the earliest memories of driving on that highway as a passenger with my mom, I can remember her calling it the “Sure Kill”, but I was too young to understand why. Now I know and understand all too well.
Planning a Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) route in this area is extremely difficult, let me tell you. My current job has me on the road at all hours of the day and night, for a total of about 3,000+ miles per month, so I’ve gotten to understand the roads in my area very well. If you live in or around Philadelphia, and plan on “bugging out” when the time is right, you best plan accordingly, and way in advance.
First off, if you live in New Jersey, you need to get out while you can! Having examined all “escape” routes to any rural area is near impossible without having to cross the Delaware River at one point or another. You could go deeper into New Jersey and try roughing it in the Pine Barrens (a favorite camping spot of mine), but in a long term SHTF scenario, you’re as good gone trying to hide in that state park.
If you live inside the city limits of Philadelphia, I suggest moving south of the city. The only routes out of the city are backed up enough during the day, let alone rush hour, and let’s not even think about a panicked evacuation.
My suggestion is living off the beaten path, but still close enough to Philly to have a reasonable commute. To anyone interested living in the Philadelphia region, Oxford would be a wonderful location. Your average drive time into the city is about an hour, and you have direct access to Route 1.

The best thing about Oxford [Pennsylvania] however, is that you’re in Amish country. If TEOTWAWKI truly kicks into high gear, bartering and trading with your neighbors shouldn’t be any problem whatsoever. Most of them currently use the barter system. During the winter months, my brother in law plows their driveways, and they let us hunt on their land. That’s just one small example.

I hope this letter is helpful to any readers interested in the Philadelphia region. If I had my way, I’d live in Wyoming, but while I’m here, I welcome all to join me. This city really is a wonderful place. Just avoid the highways. 😉 Regards! – BDB

Greetings.
The Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) planned routes discussion reminded me of two examples that you had in [the novel] “Patriots”. Look at each secondary road now for possible “problem areas” before you need the escape. Are their any bridges that could be out (earthquake), any choke points ( kill zone) that you could be attacked from? when I drive to my relocation spot to work,plan,enjoy, I look at the roads to learn now all I can about possible future problems to be avoided. Thanks, – RE in Oklahoma

Letter Re: Phone Line Power for Emergencies

Mr. Rawles,
I found this web page interesting: Free Hidden Electricity.

Essentially this site has provided some basic information on how to tap the small amount of electricity available in our land lines to use for charging batteries or powering a lamp should the power go out (and not the phones) in a small emergency scenario.
Within the discussions that follow the post are some legal and contractual concerns and a link to a retail lamp product you can currently purchase for this application. – Tanker

JWR Replies: There are some ethical issues raised by this Instructable video, since telephone service contracts are not contracts to purchase power–however miniscule the amount. But beyond that, there are also legal issues. If someone were to leech too much of the current from their phone circuit’s “on hook”, “off hook” or, “ringing voltage”, it eventually would be noticed by your phone company. Read your phone company service agreement carefully before improvising or purchasing any such emergency device!

One follow-up post from “Myself” summed it up nicely:

“This might be useful, if it was actually running that big lamp shown in the photos. Phone lines are fed with “talk battery” of 48 volts, and are current limited somewhere between 20 and 80 milliamps. A large portion of that limit comes from the resistance of the local loop, so as your current draw goes up, your available voltage goes down. You’ll be able to suck about a quarter watt from most phone lines, if you’re lucky.
Of course, going below 600 ohms of loop resistance (your circuit looks like a dead short to the phone company) will cause the switch to think you’re “off-hook”, which is to say, you’ve picked up the phone and are ready to make a call. It’ll send dial tone, and when you don’t dial anything within a few moments, it’ll send off-hook warning tone, and after a few minutes of that, it’ll disconnect your line entirely and generate a trouble message. This means you lose talk battery and phone service.
Once that happens, the switch will periodically reconnect your line to see if the trouble has been repaired. If you leave your “circuit” (and I hesitate to call it that, did you even read the LM317 datasheet? If so, improve your Instructable by explaining its function!) connected for too long, you’ll either get a knock at the door, or simply find yourself without phone service for a long time.
Since this gadget violates about half of part 68 of the FCC rules, you’re not allowed to connect it to your phone line. They won’t throw you in jail for it, but I’m pretty sure they could confiscate your toys and laugh at you. I’d be truly surprised if anyone levied fines against a clueless kid with a soldering iron, but stranger things have happened. (I am not a lawyer.)
Incidentally, this concept is so old, and so laughable, that telco-powered products are a staple joke in the industry. Congratulations on joining the prestigious ranks of Dr. Drizzlenik and others who’ve discovered this revolutionary “hidden” source of power!
P.S. A five-dollar solar panel will produce more power, more cleanly, and is portable.”

Letter Re: New Legislation Signed in California by the Governator

Jim:
After the [Ammunition] Micro Stamping bill signed by Arnold [Schwarzenegger] and the lead ammo ban also signed last weekend, a lot of firearms owners in California were somewhat angered by our “Terminator” Governor.
But this bill (AB 1645) [commonly] called “The Katrina Bill” that would if I read it correctly keep law enforcement officers from taking the firearms and ammo of citizens that posses them legally, in the event of a disaster like Katrina. This might be of interest to those in California that are preparing for WTSHTF or TEOTWAWKI. Take Care. – MGB

JWR Replies: That issue was already settled by Federal legislation (HR 5441), so it is essentially redundant. And one piece of good legislation does not make up for four bad ones: In addition to the cartridge case micro-stamping law and the lead hunting ammunition ban (enacted ostensibly to protect California Condors) The Governator also recently signed two landmark pieces of pro-homosexual legislation. As reported by WorldNetDaily, one of these new laws will allow cross-dressing or gender-confused school children to use whichever restroom or gym locker room they prefer on any given day. (The “Boys Room” and “Girls Room ” signs no longer have any meaning at California schools!) Shame on Arnie for cozying up to the liberal Democrats on so many issues. I suspect that a little too much of his wife (who was the offspring of the Hyannis Port, Massachusetts Kennedy Clan) has rubbed off.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks to RBS, who sent this from The Times of London‘s web edition: There’s a chance Northern Rock is worth zero

   o o o

Those of you that have enjoyed reading the entertaining Hillbilly Housewife blog should be advised that they are no longer sharing web space. They bought their own domain name: HillBillyHousewife.com/. (Please update your links and bookmarks.)

   o o o

The demographic handwriting is on the wall: First Baby Boomer Files For Social Security Benefits. JWR’s comment: My favorite snippet from the SSA press conference: “There is no reason to have any immediate panic…” As our friend Stephen in Iraq said in a recent e-mail about this milestone, “Whenever a government official declares that there is no need for panic, that means, it’s time to panic! This is another sign that we need to be putting away not just for our future, but also for our children’s as well.” The Memsahib’s comment: If your intended retreat region is also a likely settling place for Baby Boomer retirees, then buy your property soon, before all those retirees arrive and drive up the land prices.

   o o o

A hat tip to SJC, who sent this: U.S. Fed chief warns Wall Street. Meanwhile, we also read: Bernanke Says Housing Slump Will Probably Be a ‘Significant Drag’ on Economic Growth

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The gun control debate generally ignores the historical and philosophical underpinnings of the Second amendment. The Second amendment is not about hunting deer or keeping a pistol in your nightstand. It is not about protecting oneself against common criminals. It is about preventing tyranny . The Founders knew that unarmed citizens would never be able to overthrow a tyrannical government as they did. They envisioned government as a servant, not a master, of the American people. The muskets they used against the British Army were the assault rifles of that time. It is practical, rather than alarmist, to understand that unarmed citizens cannot be secure in their freedoms.” – Dr. Ron Paul