Letter Re: Comments on the Movie “I Am Legend”

JWR,
My wife and I saw I Am Legend last night at the local theatre. The movie house was packed. Almost every seat was filled. Of the most interest was the end. As the movie faded to black and credits rolled, there were more than several spontaneous bursts of applause throughout the audience and a few cheers. Wow! The last movie that I remember ever getting applause was the last “Star Wars” installment. Something really hit deep with many in the audience…

My wife was weird’ed out by the zombies though, as they were quite scary. So viewer beware.

As for the movie, I enjoyed it, albeit the zombies are a far stretch to the imagination, the premise is not! (a viral cancer cure with unintended consequences) The self-sufficient [aspects of] survivalism were pretty close to reality (Honda generators, large stores of supplies), although preparedness was not advocated. He just rounded up (looted) whatever he needed during the day[light hours.] The desperation of loneliness was also driven home well. And although he had a very nice AR-15 rifle (my survivalist choice, although I do own a SA-58 FAL [clone]), his hunting skills sucked: Like chasing deer through the city with a high-performance Mustang, etc. Good action, dumb logic!

Anyway, I thought you would be interested in hearing about the audience response from a liberal college town (University of Virginia at Charlottesville.). Regards, – Rmplstlskn

JWR Replies: Keep that .308 FAL. In my opinion, and as previously discussed at length in SurvivalBlog in most situations it is a much better choice than a .223 AR-15 or an M4gery.



Odds ‘n Sods:

SF in Hawaii sent this: World food stocks dwindling rapidly, UN warns. Here I must mention that I have hope that American agriculture can come to the rescue. Since they are still free-market driven, American farmers can react rapidly to changing markets. They see the price of corn soaring, so they plant more corn. I wouldn’t be surprised to see hundreds of thousands of fallowed acres taken out of the CRP and put back to productive use within the next couple of years. In real terms, the price of crops actually fell from 1975 to 2005. Since then, they have started to bounce back. It is clear that prices will continue to rise as long as supplies are thin. One of the beauties of the free market is that its reacts and naturally seeks equilibrium. OBTW, the huge global demand for food also underscores my contention that productive farm land is a good investment, even in the midst of a cyclical real estate collapse. The price declines will primarily be seen in suburban real estate in the coastal regions, and in commercial real estate. Farm land prices will probably be much more resilient.

   o o o

For those of you with concealed carry permits, or those that live in the blissful state called Vermont (where no CCW permit is required, even inside city limits), I noticed that Survivor’s Club For Men now carries the “Hidden Agenda” pistol cases, that look just like Day Planners. They have them in various sizes to fit pistols as large as full size Colt M1911 Government Models and Glock M21s, and with or without calendar inserts. (Hopefully the Memsahib will take this as a hint for a Christmas gift.)

   o o o

Thanks to SJC for sending this: Small Asteroids Pose Big New Threat. A new study concludes that the asteroid that is believed to have caused the massive 1908 Tunguska forest blow-down may have only been 20 meters in diameter.

   o o o

K.L. in Alaska recommended this analysis of the ACA Capital debacle by broker Jim Willie: US Dollar and Monoline Bond Insurers. K.L.’s comment: “This article gives some insight on what will happen next as the banking system spirals toward a crash. The mega-bankers are trying to be upbeat in public, but they must be really scared in private. It’s beginning to look more and more like a house of cards that could collapse at any time. As it says in the article, ‘The giants are toppling’.”



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The budget should be balanced; the Treasury should be refilled; the public debt should be reduced; the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled. Assistance to foreign land should be curtailed lest we become bankrupt. The mob should be forced to work and not depend upon government for subsistence." – Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106 – 43 BC



Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $200. The auction is for a scarce original 1980s-vintage Heckler und Koch 19mm Emergency Flare Launcher (EFL) aka “Notsignalgerät from my personal collection. It comes with three magazines and 28 scarce original German 19mm flares–10 red, 10 white, and 8 green. Together, this package is worth approximately $400. It is not classified as a “firearm” under Federal law. (Consult your state and local laws before bidding.) Sorry, no overseas bids will be accepted for this auction. This auction ends on January 15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.



Letter Re: Sources for Gasoline and Diesel Fuel in a Grid-Down Collapse

Dear Jim:
There have been a lot of posts recently about bug-out vehicles and such on SurvivalBlog. Of course, every car or truck requires fuel, and in a sudden grid-down situation there will be a bunch of fuel in underground tanks at most every gas station, unable to be pumped out due to the lack of electricity. I have observed oil company trucks filling these tanks, and it appears they simply pry up some covers and drop the fuel into the tanks.
How deep are these tanks, and can the fuel be pumped out by some kind of lightweight hand-cranked pump of some kind, directly into a vehicle tank? How long a drop tube would one need to access the gas?

These questions, of course, bring up the moral aspects of pumping out the gas. In a short-term grid down situation, like is presently occurring in Oklahoma, taking gas without the station being open would clearly be theft. But at the beginning of a long term TEOTWAWKI situation, one might wish to get the gas, and leave payment in cash or junk silver, for example. What are your thoughts on this? Sincerely, – Mark in Albuquerque

JWR Replies: Typical retail gas station fuel tanks are less than 14 feet deep, including the height of the filler necks, so a 15+ foot draw hose is more than long enough. Back in February, I posted details on a safe and cost-effective solution to pumping gasoline from underground tanks without grid power. My design variant (of a time-proven design that has been popular with some dirt bike enthusiasts for more than a decade) uses a 12 VDC fuel pump and incorporates an in-line fuel filter.

Odds are that you will be able to find the station owner to make payment, at least while there is still fuel in their tanks. In fact, any wise station owner will probably hire armed guards, regardless of whether or not power is available. In a societal collapse, with no re-supply in sight, they’d know that any significant quantity of gasoline would have tremendous worth. But of course after the tanks were drained, in a worst case scenario the station would probably be abandoned.

If you build two or more such pumps in advance, then you could probably use the extras in barter–most likely to trade to a gas station owners for some of their fuel.



Letter Re: LDS Church Offers Food Storage Starter Kit

Jim,
I am a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints [LDS or comminly called “The Mormons”]. I am also the Emergency Preparedness Coordinator for my ward. As you know the leaders of the church constantly speak of preparedness. In April 2007 a talk was offered by Keith B McMullin in the Saturday evening session of conference titled “Lay Up in Store”. This talk proclaimed again all the benefits of preparation.

While not every Latter-day Saint is fully prepared, a percentage somewhere in the mid-teens have done at least a 72-Hour Kit (Bug-out Bag). The Church’s preparation web site was simplified as most were overwhelmed when trying to prioritize to prepare. The focus is now on a Three Month Supply of normal items

In support of this, the Church now offers [at cost] a Family Home Storage Starter Kit. Like everything we as the dominant two legged creatures on this orb learn..Food Storage and Preparedness is “line upon line and precept upon precept.”

The following is quoted from the Provident Living web site:

“The family home storage starter kit may be used to teach family home storage principles and help individuals get started with longer-term food storage. The kit includes materials that teach the importance of a three-month food supply, water storage, and savings and 6 cans of longer-term food supply items.
The kit contains:
* All is Safely Gathered In: Family Home Storage pamphlet
* All is Safely Gathered In: Family Finances pamphlet
* All is Safely Gathered In: Basic Recipes pamphlet
* Financial reserve and drinking water teaching aids
* Two #10 cans of hard red winter wheat
* Two #10 cans of white rice
* One #10 can of pinto beans
* One #10 can of rolled oats
Available for shipping to United States addresses only.
Available from Church home storage centers in the Spring of 2008 with a savings in shipping and handling.”

[end quote]
This kit is available for anyone–not exclusively for church members. Cheers, – Tim C.



Odds ‘n Sods:

With credit to SHTF Daily (one our favorite sites) comes this tale of housing market woe: Bargain houses largely unsold Courthouse-step auctions offer 1,336 properties in foreclosure — 17 are sold

   o o o

Great Britain bans samurai swords. I suppose that the British citizenry will soon be down to just butter knives, cricket bats, ASBOs, and harsh language for self defense.

   o o o

SurvivalBlog reader Mary R. forwarded us this odd notice from the US Treasury: Annual Purchase Limit For Savings Bonds Set at $5,000. Could the Treasury have been warned that the Fed plans to further lower interest rates, potentially making even low-yield savings bonds more attractive? We live in strange times, dear readers.

   o o o

I heard from Bruce at Best Prices Storable Foods that from now until Dec. 31, 2007, they are offering 20% off all the Mountain House freeze-dried foods they have in stock. Please check their web site for availability. On the phone, mention the End-of-Year special. With their shopping cart, use Coupon Code: MH20off (meaning “Mountain twenty percent off”.) Note that this sale price lasts only until December 31, there is no free shipping offered for these sale items, and the sale is limited to just what they have on hand.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Every nation that has ended in tyranny has come to that end by way of good order. It certainly does not follow from this that peoples should scorn public peace, but neither should they be satisfied with that and nothing more. A nation that asks nothing of government but the maintenance of order is already a slave in the depths of its heart; it is a slave of its well-being, ready for the man who will put it in chains." – Alexis DeTocqueville, Democracy in America



Two Letters Re: Wider Implications of the Credit Crunch

Sir,
I read your piece on the credit crunch, and believe it or not, it gets worse. Morgan Stanley not only took a $9.4 billion dollar hit, they shored up their books by getting a $5 billion dollar infusion of capital from the Chinese! They received a 9.9% share of the company in return. The same Chinese fund has also propped up the Blackstone Group, a private equities firm. – Tim R.

Mr. Rawles:
I don’t understand what all this credit and financial news means to us poor folks who don’t have any investments to lose. I have a tiny home, with a reasonable mortgage. Why is this news so bad for us peons down here at the bottom? What exactly are you saying is going to happen? – KB

JWR Replies: What I’m saying is, that even as innocent bystanders, we might be going to witness a severe economic crisis, and experience the fallout. Credit is the lubricant that keeps the American economy going. If credit dries up, the global economy will with slow down. The current (and extraordinary) rate of consumer spending is based on credit. When that credit is no longer available products will not sell. Corporations large and small will lay off workers. As unemployment rises consumer spending will decrease causing further layoffs, company bankruptcies, mortgage defaults, and personal bankruptcies. Cities and counties will have to raise taxes, since even the municipal bond market will be impacted. There could very well be a depression as a bad or worse than that of the 1930s–which was the last time there was a major credit crisis. The bottom line is that you and your neighbors could face massive unemployment. Crime rates will rise. The times could very well resemble my novel, in the near future.

The personal application to all of this is: Do you have a job that is recession or depression proof? And if you do lose your job, will you still be able to pay your mortgage and property tax? Buckle up.



Letter Re: Thinking Like an Infantrymen or Thinking Like a Frontiersmen

Jim:
I read a post about this a while back and it sort of stuck in my head. It did make a lot of sense. What exactly does it mean to plan like a frontiersmen mean versus plan like an infantrymen? The biggest areas that stuck out were resupply, weapons, numbers, static defense, and caches. Infantrymen can almost universally depend on getting resupplied within 12-to-48 hours if they run low on ammo or anything else. Survivalists or frontiersmen do not have this luxury. Which means two things, first stock up on as much ammo as you can afford and use it sparingly. Modern infantry tactics are heavy on suppression. Generally speaking suppress and flank sums up our current strategy and it is a very effective one. However you will need to be much more sparing when it comes to ammo. The support element will need to fire at a slow rate, possibly one person firing per second down the line (aimed shots of course) being managed by the support element leader.

For weapons soldiers have very little if any say in what they carry, you have much more but also a budget. If things are tight think in terms of dual use weapons. Any frontiersmen or soldier who has the option will carry a handgun as a backup to their rifle. Have these guns with you all the time after TSHTF! “A .22 snubby on your body is much more useful then a .45 in the car” comes to mind. If a chore means that you can’t have a long gun on you then it becomes a two person chore with a friend with a long gun [to provide security.] This is a good “rest” position to give short breaks from physical labor, alternating to avoid excessive fatigue.

This brings us logically to the next area which is numbers. There is a reason that men often partnered up on the frontier and it was not so the tough main character could have a funny sidekick! There is strength in numbers. Families doubling up and traveling in groups was necessary then and could possibly also be in the future. Comparing soldiers to frontiersmen, the number of people on your side is likely to be much smaller then in a military element. A squad is 8-to-12 depending [on TO&E] and they do not operate alone for long periods. A platoon is 40 plus and it is generally the smallest element to operate independently for prolonged periods. A group of survivalists which can field a full squad without getting help from friends and neighbors is probably on the large side.

The biggest single difference between the planning frontiersmen made (and you need to make) and that of infantrymen is a static defense. The military no longer fights this way because it eliminates your movement and lets the enemy bring overwhelming force to bear on you. Also they have the luxury (in a broad sense) of a more flexible supply train which will continue to supply them if they drop back a few kilometers. You do not have this since your supply train is in the pantry, barn and garden of your homestead. Falling back from the house leaves you with [only] what you can carry in a rucksack. You can and should use maneuver to your advantage against the enemy, but the ability to do so without losing the battle (you wanting to keep your stuff and them wanting to take it) is minimal. This brings me to the next area which is caches.

Keeping a significant amount of your supplies off-site in a hidden [cache] location is important. This way if your homestead/retreat gets overwhelmed by a large organized group then you will not be living out your rucksacks. – RS



Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update

St. Maries, Idaho and Snow Country Logistics
Today we take a quick look at St. Maries, Idaho, located an hour or so south east from Coeur d’Alene and an hour and a half from Spokane, Washington. The first noticeable thing about the town’s geography is that it is on the south east side of Lake Coeur d’Alene which provides a natural barrier from possible refugee paths from Seattle and Spokane. But it is also still in reasonable commute distance to the Coeur d’Alene and Spokane area for work until a SHTF or TEOTWAWKI event. The icing on the cake is that you can purchase a modest home on 20-to-40 acres for half the cost of a similar retreat in far northern Idaho where I’m located (Boundary County). To digress a moment the northern Idaho real estate market is now suffering from two distinct issues. The first being the problem of destitute and or greedy land owners splitting up their land, of which they have every right to do of course, and then selling them off to feed their worsening economic conditions as the timber market in this area worsens and land owners are forced to find alternative ways to put food on the table. The second is a natural product of the first; after the land is chopped up you have sellers that still think the smaller parcels are worth what the larger one was and buyers have almost no choice of homes on large acreage, no matter your wiling purchase price, they are just disappearing up in this area very fast. Thus now the focus on the St. Maries region.

St. Maries [,spoken “Saint Mary’s”,] is a bustling little town of about 2,500 people situated in Benewah County. St. Maries sits in the middle of the St. Joe river valley at the confluence of the St. Joe and St. Maries rivers, with the St. Joe river being the highest elevation navigable river in the world and some of the best blue ribbon trout fishing around.
Benewah County, unlike Latah County (Potlatch, Deary, Moscow) has land development rules that are very appealing to anyone wishing to purchase a larger parcel then split it up to walk away with their portion free and clear. Although the regular real estate market is not doing well at all one may be surprised how easily a covenant community of preparedness folks would sell in the hard times to come.

I’m currently working to review and approve several modestly priced retreats for SurvivalRealty.com in the St. Maries region priced from the low $300,000’s to one at about $420,000 on 20-to-40 acres, respectively. One of these is totally off the grid with a timber/cedar framed home with a green house in a park-like and very defendable setting. Here in northern Idaho a similar property would run a minimum of $150,000 more. The only technical drawback to some properties in Benewah County is their location on sovereign Indian land. [“Inside the reservation boundary”] While I used to be very adamant about not purchasing inside the reservation, I have reversed my opinion. If you read the deed documents you’ll see a clause that states that it is subject to all treaties made by the reservation with the US Government. Meaning, I suppose, if the tribal council decided to give their land back to the US Government for a tidy sum of cash then you would be out of luck. Understanding what the US Government did to the Native inhabitants of this country years ago I’ll pretty much bet my life they would never do such a thing, although you never know.

Most properties in the St. Maries area offer excellent sun exposure, relatively long growing season, water accessibility (good water tables for wells, springs, and creeks), beautiful heavily-treed terrain with State and National Forest all around. There are not very many properties for sale in the region because of a stable population and the large expanses of public lands. In recent years the town has been discovered for some very nice waterfront parcels along both rivers and hence those prices have risen but the more remote parcels have stayed within the reach of the average preparedness family looking for a fully self sustainable retreat.

If you would like more information on possible retreats in the St. Maries area then please e-mail me.

Snow Country Logistics

Earlier this week I spent a day visiting and evaluating properties for a real estate client in the area and with the recent snow, some of the properties in the higher elevations were completely inaccessible although it rained on the valley floor. The roads had been plowed to the driveway but several of the driveways were very long (2/10’s to 3/10’s of a mile) and under 3.5 feet of snow. During a major event even the county roads would most likely not be plowed either. So, in these particular circumstances there would a similar snow pack on the road for over five miles! Would the neighbors have plowed the road? If it was a major “lock-down” event like something out of the television series Jericho, I think not. They would want the roads shut off and to keep out looters and refugees. How are you going to handle your logistics of making the last few miles of your long journey, especially when you arrive a week or so after the event and all your neighbors are on ultra security lock down? Do you speak to your neighbors about arriving late and making sure they know your BOV so you aren’t ambushed and risk your OPSEC at your retreat? How do you plan to make it five miles without a front end loader to clear the snow? A snow plow will not move that much accumulated snow, period. You can do all the pre-planning in the world and have all your routes set up and actually ‘make it’ almost to your retreat locale, yet fail at the last moment due to an issue that most have not even considered. Sure, snow shoes would be fine with your B.O.B. on your back and a rifle in your hand but what a nice target you’ll make. Be sure to travel at night, I suppose. This is one more reason to have your retreat fully stocked so you won’t be trying to get your trailer full of lootable goodies through a bunch of snow! If anyone has any constructive comments about this issue please e-mail them to JWR.

On a closing note: Sellers here in the northern Idaho have begun the realize the extent of the nationwide real estate market crash and have been making some long-awaited price reductions. Many are also now willing to carry private notes on their properties. Merry Christmas, – T.S.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Several readers sent us this one: Morgan Stanley Issues Full US Recession Alert. I could see why it looks like a recession to them…. Stephen in Iraq sent us this: $9.4 Billion Write-Down at Morgan Stanley–the firm reported the first quarterly loss in its 72-year history. Meanwhile, we read: Bear Stearns Posts 4Q Lossthe first loss in its 84-year history. Wow, they both made it through the Great Depression without posting losses. But now they are in the red. Billions of dollars in the red. We are experiencing times that are unprecedented within living memory.

   o o o

Thanks to both Eric S. and RBS for flagging this article: Fatwa against the US dollar?

   o o o

RBS also sent us this: New Solution to Copper Theft

   o o o

Take the time to check out Ranger’s Man’s SHTF Blog. He has had some very useful posts in recent weeks.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"We have thus given up much of the ground that our fathers had won; for under the banner of justice and in the name of the law we permit things to be done that could only be imposed on them by violence." – Alexis DeTocqueville, Democracy in America



Note from JWR:

The bald eagles have returned here to the valley. We see a lot of them here each winter. In addition to fish, they enjoy finding road-killed deer. They aren’t picky eaters. In fact, some of our best “up close” eagle viewing is of the ones that are right next to the county road, typically sharing a road kill with a cluster of ravens. The ravens respectfully wait their turn.



Wider Implications of the Credit Crunch

The news on the financial front has gone from bad to worse. Eric S. sent us this: ECB lends $500 Billion to lower rates, and Stephen in Iraq found this article: Fed Loans Banks [Another] $20 Billion. And if that weren’t enough, K.L. in Alaska sent us this: ACA Capital Holdings Inc. was just de-listed by the New York Stock Exchange. K.L.”s comment was blunt: “[ACA Capital Holdings] is essentially bankrupt. It is one of the insurers of the financial instruments such as municipal bonds, hedge funds and CDOs that have been infected by toxic mortgages. These funds are becoming impossible to insure because their losses are greater than any insurance company can handle. Other insurance companies that bear watching are (stock symbols) ABK, MBI, AGO, RAMR, and MTG. The whole system is starting to come apart at the seams.” I concur.

Here is the significance credit crunch in a nutshell: The sub-prime debacle only served to point out a systemic weakness in the modern banking system: Because of endless CDO/SIV debt “re-packaging” and hedge fund aggregation of countless assorted debt instruments it is impossible to properly assess the risk of most loan offerings. A lot of loans are quite safe and a few are garbage. But given the extensive debt market re-packaging it is hard to tell one from another. (Perhaps the comedians John Bird and John Fortune had it right about “dodgy debts”.) The central banks are frantically trying to pump up liquidity–literally throwing money at the problem. There have also been calls to reduce the banks’ reserve requirements, because assets have been marked down so heavily that banks are now struggling to meet their paltry reserve obligations. But here is the rub: lowering reserve ratios might make depositors nervous and perhaps lead to more banks runs. (As was recently seen with the runs on Northern Rock bank, in England.)

Despite the desperation moves by the central banks, there is a fairly significant possibility that the entire global credit market will collapse in the next few months and plunge the world into a deep, long recession if not a full scale depression.

OBTW, I’m not the only saying this. Shortly after I drafted the foregoing, Matt in Texas forwarded this article link, which echoes my conclusions: The coming collapse of the modern banking system. It is time to batten down the hatches, folks.