Economics and Investing:

Raymond sent this New York Times piece: Inside The Global Frenzy For Gold

Several readers sent this: Gold price hits record high as dollar wanes. JWR’s advice: Wait until the next profit-taking dip in precious metals, but then invest in silver, not gold. (I anticipate that silver may dip to as low as $12 per ounce, a proportionately much deeper drop, than gold. Watch the silver-to-gold price ratio closely! In the long term, the value of silver will gain versus gold, since silver is being consumed–and not reclaimed–from industrial use. (Nearly all gold is reclaimed, but an incredible amount of silver ends up in landfills.)

“Oxy” liked this article: The Next Big Bubble?

Items from The Economatrix:

AIG Taps Another $2.1 Billion from US for ILFC Share Purchase

Calderon Says Mexico No Longer in Recession

Mexico Faces Possible Downgrade After Tax Bill

World Unemployment Up Despite Economic Recovery

Japan PM: The State of the Economy is Severe

Japanese Shares Close Down 2.31% Over Doubts of US Recovery

Bank of Japan Begins Gradual Pullout of Credit Markets



Odds ‘n Sods:

Jeff B. flagged this from ABC: Massachusetts family of six lives off $4 per week for food. Coupon clipping pays off! For anyone on a low income: If you have the time, but not the cash, then this is one way to stock your larder. (With our Search Posts on SurvivalBlog box, enter the word “coupons” to find previous articles with links to online printable coupons and discount codes, such as this one.)

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Jim W. and Norman both suggested this 60 Minutes segment about a former US spy chief’s dire warning about the vulnerability of America’s power grids: Sabotaging the System.

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Zach F. and Cheryl both mentioned this piece: How Safe Is Your Safe-Deposit Box?

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Bridget sent us another installment on the growth of Nanny State Britannia: Now safety police want to check all our smoke alarms. Britons: If you haven’t caught the clue yet, now is the time to Take The Gap!



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Of all contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money." – Daniel Webster



Note from JWR:

The special sale price on the “Rawles Gets You Ready” family preparedness course from Arbogast Publishing began Friday night, and will run until November 30th. Just the first folks that order will also get a free copy of my book “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It“, so order soon! The course is designed to get a family’s food storage squared away in a hurry, by stocking up on bulks foods, most efficiently a “big box” store such as a COSTCO. Oh, and speaking of COSTCO, my new book is now being sold there (for around $12), and is featured in their latest “COSTCO Connection” member newsletter. The sale ends on November 30th. But again, the free copies of my book “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It” won’t last nearly that long.



Two Letters Re: Food Grade HDPE Storage Buckets

James,
Some time ago mention was made on the site regarding “square buckets” [that are food grade]. I came across this deal which readers may be interested in (I have no relationship with these folks). The company is called Five Star Preparedness, in Utah. God Bless, – Bob B.

JWR:
I have searched your great site, and the Internet in general for more info on storing grain (such as wheat) inside good used food grade plastic pails.

So far I have learned that a mylar food grade bag should be used inside the [sealed HDPE plastic] pail to put the food in, And a small (thumb size) piece of dry ice should be placed on top of the food and allowed to “melt” until almost all gone, And then seal the bag for long term storage.

What I cannot find out is if the dry ice should be applied directly to the foodstuff, or onto a small piece of cardboard etc to keep the extremely low temperatures away from direct contact with the food?

I live out in the boondocks where it is very difficult to obtain actual “dry ice” However, I have been picking up used (But still charged) CO2 fire extinguishers at rummage sales, etc for years and now have plenty of that source of “dry ice” available. Can that source of dry ice be used for food storage? (Of course I would clean up the inside cone of the extinguisher, etc before use to eliminate dirt, bugs, etc.)

If that source of dry ice will work, How big of a “pile” of dry ice from an extinguisher would be about right for a 5 gallon pail of foodstuff?

Any other comments about this source of dry ice, And it’s possible uses?

Thanks again for your great web site! – K9

JWR Replies: Brief direct contact from dry ice will not harm most grains and rice, using a square of cardboard works, fine, if you want your grain to be pristine. Starting with piece of dry ice that is about one cubic inch is sufficient for a five gallon bucket. As I describe in the “Rawles Gets You Ready” family preparedness course, wait until the piece of dry ice almost completely sublimates to fill the bucket with CO2 (displacing the normal atmospheric air. The piece of dry ice should be be allowed to “melt” until it is a disc about the size of a nickel. Do not pound the lid in place with a mallet any sooner, or dangerous pressure could develop in the container.



Letter Re: Retreat Construction, Afghan Style

Mr. Rawles,
Regarding your discussion of adobe construction – Adobe can be used for structural and exterior construction in a range of climates based on how you make it.

I used to work for a company in Fresno, California that made stabilized adobe – it included a bituminous emulsion (tar-like stuff that’s water proof) to make the bricks water proof. They have been sold across California in residential and commercial construction. Their products included several that were considered structurally sound enough to meet California’s earthquake codes and generally made walls from 12 inches solid to 18 inches (two row with slurry in between) wide.

These bricks did not require any surface treatment to protect them from the climate, but did provide all the benefits of adobe.

Bear in mind, the only real drawback was that bricks ranged from 20 to 48 pounds each! – Steve G.



Letter Re: Clarification on the Distribution of SurvivalBlog

James,
Would you be kind enough to add me to your e-mailing list for your blog? I would appreciate it. Thanks, C.R. – Lebanon, Oklahoma

JWR Replies: For the privacy of my readers, I don’t keep any e-mail lists. My blog is accessed by readers with a web browser either by clicking a bookmark, or by using our RSS feed. Just be sure to book mark our URL, or better yet, make it your browser’s home page. SurvivalBlog has been updated daily, without fail, since its inception in 2005. All of the blog’s content, including nearly 8,000 archived articles, letters, and quotes are available free of charge. We do ask for subscriptions to help keep the blog in the black (our “Ten Cent Challenge“), but that is entirely voluntary. I don’t even keep a list of the people that have sent donations. Only about 1% of SurvivalBlog’s 150,000+ regular readers are voluntary subscribers.



Influenza Pandemic Update:

Amid shortage, big NYC firms get swine vaccine. Reader Garth S. (who sent us the article link) asks: “So is this how it works? I get six zeros behind my salary and I can get to the front of the line?”

World First As Swine Flu Found in US Cat

Critically Ill Swine Flu Patients Spend Weeks in ICU

Scandal: NHL Team Gets Priority Flu Shots

WHO Targets Hemorrhagic H1N1 Cases in Lviv, Ukraine. So, assuming that his is a new, more lethal strain, I’m led to ask: Will contracting the current mild strain circulating in the US protect someone from contracting the new strain?

National Swine Flu Pandemic Called in Bulgaria. “Spikes in deaths have already been reported in Turkey and Italy, although none have approached the numbers reported in Ukraine, where influenza/[Acute respiratory infection] (ARI) cases are approaching 1 million, and will likely surpass that number in the next report. The explosion of cases in Ukraine raise concerns that the H1N1 virus has subtly changed, with associated increase in cases and deaths.”

Majority of Californians to Ignore Late Swine Flu Vaccine

Withheld Ukraine Swine Flu Sequences Raise Pandemic Concerns. “[T]he rapid spread of H1N1 in Ukraine… …coupled with the high frequency of hemorrhagic pneumonia raise concerns that a small change is leading to a more virulent virus.”

Reported Cases in Ukraine Double Again

Canada: No Life Insurance for a Year if You Get Swine Flu!


How to Minimize Your Risk of Getting Swine Flu

Banks’ H1N1 Flu Vaccines Stir Outrage. Protests mount that Goldman Sachs, CitiBank, JPMorgan and others have the vaccine amid shortage

H1N1 Swine Flu Deaths Highest in 50 and Older Once Hospitalized. The overall death rate of those hospitalized (the worst cases, often with underlying health issues) is 11%

Polish PM: Poland Not Buying Swine Flu Vaccination Unless it Has Been Properly Tested

WHO Says Swine Flu Virtually in Every Country on Earth



Economics and Investing:

Reader Chad S. sent this: No risk of hyperinflation, says Bernanke. (I feel so much safer now, knowing that he’s grounding the helicopters.)

Also from Chad: The Truth about Hyperinflation and Price Controls.

Items from The Economatrix:

Ahead of the Bell: Consumer Credit

Mortgage Rate Falls Below 5%

GM to Axe 10,000 in Germany


Analysis: 10% Jobless is Obama’s New World
. Sadly, 18-22% is more realistic. See the data at ShadowStats.com.

Unemployment Rate Rises Above 10%. “The 10.2 percent unemployment rate does not include people without jobs who have stopped looking for work or those who have settled for part-time jobs. If you counted those people, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994.”

Freddie Mac Loses $6.3 Billion in Third Quarter

Consumer Borrowing Drops $14.8 Billion in September

Oil Prices Tumble
(on Friday)

AIG Plunges as Sales Decline at Life, Property Units

Soaring US Unemployment Threatens Path to Economic Recovery



Odds ‘n Sods:

Several how-to videos have been posted that were filmed by Outside Magazine editor Joe Spring who accompanied Tony Nester of the Ancient Pathways school on a “Knife-Only” outdoor survival course.

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File this is the “Why Am I Not Surprised?” Department: U.S. reverses stance on treaty to regulate arms trade. This, BTW, is the same Presidential Administration headed by the guy that promised voters: “I’m not going to take away your guns.”

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Jeff B. forwarded this link: Seven (more) ) Abandoned Wonders of America: From Deserted Breweries to Famous Auto Factories.

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Pelosi: Buy a $15,000 Policy or Go to Jail. We are just now starting to learn what was hidden in the “fine print” of HR 3962, the 2,000+ page bill that was just ramrodded through the House of Representatives on a Saturday.. All that we can hope to do now is stop this socialist legislation in the US Senate. If you are concerned about this bill, then please contact your Senator by both phone and snail mail!





Letter Re: An Overwhelmed Newbie, Catching Up at Prepping

Mr. Rawles,
I’m fairly new to your blog (three months), and still feeling a tad bit overwhelmed. I’m a 5th grade school teacher, and my husband is a former truck driver, now a truck dispatcher/supervisor. Not just am I realizing that I have a lot of catching up to do to get my family prepared for the rough times ahead, but I’m realizing how much my husband and I have to learn, to be truly ready! I’ve taken your advice and have asked my mother to teach me how to do pressure cooker canning. That was something that I had always been “too busy” to learn, when I was a teenager, being more engaged with academics and chasing boys. We’re also scheduled for taking three classes from the Red Cross, in quick succession. When I mentioned the Appleseed shoots to my husband, he said “Yes, that for us!” He didn’t even play his usual cop-out of waiting for better weather in the Spring or Summer. We are gong to the first one available, though the weather will be uncertain, and its a 130 mile drive. My husband was in the Marines, so he has the gun thing covered. But he wants a refresher [course], and wants me to learn to shoot “under stress, out to 300 meters.” He bought us a pair of silver [stainless steel] Ruger Mini-14s, and he also has antique Springfield “O-3” [Model 1903] that belonged to his dad. He has more than two dozen extra [Mini-14] 20 rounder magazines (made by Ruger–not the cheapie copies that jam) now ordered, plus Mollie [MOLLE] pouches to hold 16 of them in. Our twin daughters (now 9) are getting Ruger .22 rifles for Christmas, and he found used wooden stocks on eBay to “cut down” to fit them. (Under $10 each–the shipping cost just as much [as the stocks]!)

I’ve already bought a food dehydrator and meat grinder both very inexpensively on Craigslist and a wheat grinder from Lehman’s. One of those “Food Saver” vacuum packer-sealers is next on my list. (I’m hoping to get one used on Craigslist, since they are expensive, when bought new.)

The other thing I’ve done (following your wife’s guidance), is to buy two copies of Carla Emery’s book [The Encyclopedia of Country Living]. I’ve dived into that book, head first. The Memsahib was right. What an amazing reference! Owning that book is like having a country aunt on “speed dial” that you can turn to, to ask just about any question about the old-fashion ways of doing things.

Since we are members of both Sam’s Club and Costco (discount memberships, through my husband’s work, and my school district) we plan to buy most of our bulk foods at those places. So I’m getting a copy of your [“Rawles Gets You Ready”] prepping course. I’m sure that will fill in some gaps that Carla Emery didn’t cover, like details on food shelf lives and modern food packaging. Most important, it is perfect for people like us that want to be able to stock up [on food storage], just [shopping] at supermarkets or the Big Box outlets like Sam’s [Club] and Costco.

OBTW, my husband devoured your novel. It kept him up ’til 3 A.M.!

We are selling off our “fluff stuff” on eBay and Craigslist, to get cash for prepping. So far, we’ve sold my collectibles and some vintage clothes, our Bose sound system, my husband’s stamp collection, and more than 200 music CDs, in batches of 10 to 15, [sorted] by genre. We dropped our dish television contract–no time for that sort of time-wasting and mind-numbing entertainment! Next will be selling our Nautique ski boat. Fishing will replace water skiing as our summer hobby, and we can do that from the shore or from kayaks or inflatables that will fit on our Excursion’s roof rack. The side bonus is that selling the boat and trailer is that clears one whole section of our garage. That will surely be filled with prepping shelves, shortly. My husband has a source for used industrial-weight shelving and pallet racks for about the price of scrap metal. (They buy shelving from failed companies.)

Thank You, Mr. Rawles, for extracting our heads from the sand. Semper Paratus and Semper Fidelis – Jessica and Ron, in the Non-Amish Part of Ohio (Wishing I lived in Kidron, next door to Lehman’s!)



Three Letters Re: How Much Food Storage is Biblically Justified?

Sir,
Knowing your Christian beliefs are similar to mine — Calvinist, reformed — I thought you’d want to know that the article you linked to is from a cult organization. It follows doctrines generally referred to as “Armstrongism” — denying the Trinity and salvation by grace alone, and more false prophecies than can be counted.

Here’s a write up from a cult watch group describing the doctrines:
Armstrongism: The doctrines and religious movement originating with Herbert W. Armstrong (1892-1986), who founded the Worldwide Church of God (WCG). Armstrong rejected such essential doctrines of evangelical Christianity as the Trinity, the full deity of Jesus Christ , and the personality of the Holy Spirit. Armstrong taught British Israelism and believed that worthy humans could eventually “become God as God is God.” Teaches salvation by works predicated on Sabbatarianism , tithing (20-30%), and keeping the Old Testament feast days and dietary laws. Under the leadership of Armstrong’s successors, Joseph W. Tkach and his son Joe Tkach, the WCG has undergone a radical doctrinal transformation. Scores of splinter groups, such as the Global Church of God and the United Church of God , continue to teach various forms of Armstrongism.

Though the article may have some merit re: survivalism, [linking to] it also could also lead some into this cult and away from Christ. With this in mind, you may wish to remove it from your site. With respect, – Chris B.

 

Jim:
He starts by tipping his hat to survivalist foresight, but it degenerates into “Forget all that survivalist stuff, put your faith in God and God alone.”

I’m in agreement with that in part, but God also told us to take care of ourselves and others.

“God actually wants us to recognize and overcome our tendency to trust ourselves. He is measuring the coming destruction of America and other nations because of our sin, our faithlessness, our self-reliance, our ignorance of Him and our belittling of His power. And if you understand the Bible’s prophecies about the severity of that destruction, you realize that no private bunker will be safe for long. No one is going to escape the coming tribulation—descending on the nation because of God’s wrath—through survivalist moxie.

Those who plan to weather the coming storms through their own foresight and ingenuity are underestimating the savageness of the time ahead. More importantly, they are misplacing their faith.”

He wrapped with…

“Above all, God seeks repentance. And to those who turn to Him with supple hearts, He offers individual protection—escape—from the worst of the coming storms (e.g. Luke 21:36). That is the only sure place to invest our faith.”

Okay, I’m in agreement with that too, but only after I’ve done all I can.

I can’t imagine that God would have given me the mind I have and sent me down the paths I’ve gone down to just roll over and go cockroach waiting for the redemption when it comes time.

That would be a really cruel joke. I know bad things happen, I’m pretty sure it’s humans at work. The duality of our souls. I don’t think God is mean for the sake of it. Probably more disappointed than anything. – Jim B

Hi James –
I am sure you are aware of the recent post on the Trumpet web site detailing their particular view on preparedness. I am not a member of their denomination, nor do I agree with their viewpoint that the Bible precludes preparation and storage of food for more than a few weeks. Did not Joseph store seven years’ worth of wheat in preparation for lean times? It seems to this preparedness neophyte that the Lord has provided us with the precious gift of life and loved ones, and that for us to knowingly waste these gifts would be an affront to Him and his gifts. When the final tribulation comes and we are all called before Him, will it matter that I left behind six months of freeze dried food that will go to waste? More important is how I lived His gift, and how I shared the storage with those whom He has placed in my life. Perhaps I am missing something. Thanks for your great service, – Hunkajunk

JWR Replies: Yes, I ‘ve seen that article. The author (Joel Hilliker) misinterprets Matthew 6:19-2 (“Lay not up for yourselves treasures upon earth”), in trying to apply it to food storage. Storing grain for your family’s sustenance in hard times does not constitute a “treasure”. In the modern context, I think that “treasure” is far more applicable to 48-inch plasma HDTVs. But it is certainly not applicable to the large quantities of wheat and rice that I have in my basement. The extra quantity (beyond my own family’s needs) is there for us to distribute in charity–not something to gloat about, or run my fingers through, cackling, just to admire.

In his conclusion, Joel Hilliker also quotes a 1966 article written by Herbert W. Armstrong, as if it were authoritative. Obviously, Armstrong’s writings would only be credible if he had made accurate prophecies. But in fact he had a horrible track record as a prophet, and he was fortunate that the Old Testament laws on false prophets (Deuteronomy 13:1-5) have not been enforced in modern times, or he wouldn’t have lived to write that piece in 1966.

I’ve noticed that people tend to throw around terms like “hoarding” very loosely. Let’s get something straight: Purchasing storage food before a crisis does not constitute hoarding. That is because it doesn’t take food from anyone’s mouth. But if someone tried to amass their supplies after the onset of a crisis, then that would be hoarding. Simple logic dictates that every citizen that is well stocked represents one less individual that will rush to the supermarket to clean out the shelves, when disaster strikes. Hence, instead of being part of the problem, preppers are part of the solution. As I’ve often stated in radio and television interviews, I don’t consider my family’s three years worth of storage food a three year supply for one family. Rather, it is a one year supply for three families. Charity is essential, and Biblically mandated for heads of households.



Letter Re: When Does the Other Shoe Drop?

James:
I was having a conversation with my survival think tank buddy tonight and he asked me when I thought the dollar would collapse. I answered that it was like asking when the next ice age would come. It’s due in another 1,000 years but we could be off by century or a millennia. It’s the same thing with the dollar. It is impossible, mathematically speaking, for it to continue in it’s current valuation indefinitely as it is in a non-sustainable negative spiral for reasons people reading this blog are well versed.

A collapse could happen tomorrow but is could also be delayed for years. This is because the timing of the collapse is not something that can be calculated by mathematical formula alone. It also has a great deal to do with psychological and political forces. As an example, Mr. Obama could authorize the sale of missile technology to China in exchange for buying our debt or not dumping the dollar. The media could continue the party line about a jobless recovery (a euphemism still makes me chortle) and people could continue to remain in dollar denominated assets. Banks could continue the counterintuitive action of not moving forward on foreclosures so as to avoid having to put the losses on their books or do upkeep on the property.

The same holds true for gold. As long as the majority of the gold players are willing to take profits in dollars rather than demanding physical delivery of gold contracts the price of gold can be manipulated.
Then there is food. While food commodities can be manipulated, unlike gold, food is continually consumed and we are running out. You can hide the weak dollar by continuing to ‘double down’ at the world casino until your credit line runs dry. You can hollow out gold bars and fill them with tungsten as long as no one cuts them open. You can even sell the same serial numbered gold bar to 10 people giving them identical warehouse certificates and as long as none of them take delivery, you’ve just ‘multiplied’ your gold holdings by tenfold.

This cannot be done with food that is eaten. You either have it or you don’t. So, my long winded answer is that you’ll know that the gig is up when the food runs out. – SF in Hawaii



Economics and Investing:

KT sent the link to an absolutely hilarious British music video parody on YouTube: Bohemian Bankruptcy (Warning: There are a couple of crude moments, so this is not for the kids!)

Reader Tom. L. sent this: London Officially Dethrones New York as World’s Financial Capital

Pat G. flagged this: Big California Bank Fails, Has Two Chinese Branches (Five more US bank failures were announced Friday)

British Airways Makes Record Loss, Cutting 3,000 Jobs. (Thanks to Tom in Essex for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Commentary from Doug Casey: Why Gold Has a Long Way to Go

Clunker Data Shows Pickups Hottest Swap, But Only Got Marginally Better MPG. Your tax dollars at work.

Top Nine Companies With No Layoffs Ever
.

Fed Keeps Interest Rates at Near-Zero Emergency Level

Long-Term Jobless Face Frayed Safety Net. “By February I will be in a tent.”

Fannie Mae Getting Into Home Rental Business

Phelps Says Job Market to Bottom 1Q of 2010
Yeah, right!