Letter Re: Suddenly Homeless on the Potomac–Some Preparedness Lessons Learned

Jim & Company,
I thought that I would communicate an interesting story for your web blog. As I write this, I’m holed up in campground/RV park near the District of Columbia (DC) Metropolitan area. How I got here was totally unexpected. My roommate is female, a former army buddy and suffers from chronic depression—maybe bi polar disorder. We maintained a platonic cohabitation for two months until she swore a Temporary Peace Order against me because she felt “threatened”. In the liberal pest hole of Maryland, that’s all it takes. No battery, assault or actual threats—I just yelled at her to clean up after her dog (perhaps the 20th time she didn’t do this) and, in the span of 24 hours the deputies came, gave me 10 minutes to get some things, then escorted me out of the property that I co-rented. That means I was instantly homeless and without the time to assemble my preps.

Fortunately it was payday and I had money for a hotel, an attorney, and what not. But the unbearable part was having my Bug Out Bag and supplies in a residence that I could not approach or enter under court order which gave me a very sickening feeling of what a fast and unplanned for emergency can produce. My preps are centered around an emergency that is slow coming with warning. Save for my camping/bug-out gear, most of my preps cannot be moved rapidly (like 5 gallon buckets). Further, my emergency plan calls for me to hunker down at my place of residence until things stop moving and I have time and latitude to maneuver and get to my bug-out site for the longer duration. Being under the supervision of two sheriff’s deputies put a damper on grabbing my survival gear.

Grabbing my emergency cash, which is well-concealed (Go MI!) was problematic.

Through my attorney, I was able to pick up much of my camping/bugout gear from the former residence. Tell ‘ya what, having a good set of quality camping and survival gear that can be hastily put together is a real boon. I purchase good gear and 20+ years (and counting) in the military has given real appreciation for quality equipment.
Not that an urban campground is primitive: hot and cold water, wireless Internet and a laundry make it a perfect spot for temporary emergency stays and at $40/night, much cheaper than a hotel room (in the DC Area, plan on $100 per night minimum for a single room with a military discount). It sucks that I only have a tent to come home to, but it beats living out of my Jeep Cherokee or in a box (or with the Housemate from H*ll)

Yes, I was homeless that fast and a week of hotel living would have cost me over $1,000. But having ready camping gear, for both camping and survival, insured that I had a home of some sort and was able to take care of myself. No homeless shelter is going to put up a white collar professional.

Because my emergency required a lot of communications between me, my attorney and the landlords of future domiciles I needed Internet access and voice comms. My cell phone is unlocked and uses a pre-paid SIM card and can access almost any cellular network. From Vermont to North Carolina I have cellular voice communications. A GSM smartphone is in my future as it can provide a secondary e-mail channel (PACE). A laptop with Wi-Fi is almost a necessity in urban environments. In slow rolling “grid down” situations, or a Balkans-like future for America (which is probable)—communications infrastructure will be available, albeit intermittently. Without my survival preps, I would have lasted two weeks in a hotel room until I ran out of money. But now I can live virtually anywhere as a homeless white collar professional. All of the trouble aside, it took me a week to adjust from living in townhouse with all the amenities of modern life, to living without many of those amenities.

Being a survivalist, I took this as a learning experience to test both my material and mental preparations. I forgot things when I had to vacate my premise, like a can opener, but I did remember I placed several P38 [compact military folding key ring] can openers throughout my gear and truck sometime ago—just sprinkled them around. That was real relief. An additional relief came from the box of matches I keep in the emergency box in my truck—believe me, after I left my old digs, I was inventorying everything I had in the truck—another prep was the $500 in cash that I keep to get me to my Bug Out Location.

Preparedness pays immense dividends that are not fully appreciated until you need them. – Mark in Maryland



Odds ‘n Sods:

A not-so-subtle indicator of future events?: Baltic Dry Index Collapsing. The article begins with this quote: “Nothing is moving because the trader doesn’t want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.”

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Here is some news and commentary from our Economic editor: Stocks Turn Higher As Credit Markets Show Signs Of EasingCiti Group’s $13 Billion Writedown Raises Fears of a Crisis Beyond Wall StreetUS Worsening Economic OutlookHedge Fund 42% Drop, Brink Of CollapseDow Gold Ratio Sinks To 14-Year LowEuropean Markets Tumble As Confidence CollapseGold Price Crash On Hedge Funds Forced SellingBanks Borrow Record $435.7 Billion Per Day From FedRecession Looms Despite Global InterventionsJP Morgan And Goldman Sachs Responsible For Destruction of US EconomyWill Bailouts Risk Hyperinflation?Moscow Supermarket Shelves Increasingly Empty

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I found a link over at Total Survivalist Libertarian Rantfest (one of my almost daily reads) to an insightful piece over at Sharon Astyk’s blog: Thinking Ahead: Predicting the Depression

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Reader “Roo” suggested this site: FromTheWilderness.com

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Camping Survival recently added hand-made fire pistons from Jeff Wagner to their product line. These are the ones that wilderness survival guru Les Stroud uses and recommends.





Notes from JWR:

My, oh my! SurvivalBlog just blew past five million unique visits. Thanks to everyone for making SurvivalBlog such an unparalleled success. (It is clearly now the Internet’s most popular family preparedness blog.) Please continue to spread the word to your relatives, friends, and co-workers. It is in your best interest to get them prepared, so that they won’t be dependent on your pile of logistics once everything hits the fan. Even just a one line mention in your-e-mail footer would be a huge help. Here is a suggestion: survivalblog.com — Bookmark it. It may save your life!

Today we present another entry for Round 19 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:

First Prize: The writer of the best contributed article will be awarded two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 19 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.



Preparing for Survival Retreat Perimeter Defense, by O.F.

There may come a time when a survival retreat will need to be defended, and a properly prepared perimeter will be key to the success of the defense. While many survival-minded individuals and retreat groups have likely considered the possibility of a defense scenario, many are at a loss as to how to plan for such an situation. If the time comes, a well-thought, methodically planned perimeter defense will hold up better than simply having “a bunch guns and ammo.”

Fighting positions offer several advantages during perimeter defense. Proper positions allow the defenders to observe possible threats with reduced risk of detection, protect the defenders from attack, and serve as a point of reference for reporting events to other members of the retreat. They also form a buffer between the outside world and the retreat. Fighting would-be attackers at “arm’s length” is preferred to fighting them inside the retreat, because it keeps the threat away from important assets and personnel.
Fighting position placement will vary widely depending on terrain, but should always be done with 360 degree security as the goal. Follow the acronym OCOKA [Observation and fields of fire, Cover and Concealment, Obstacles, Key terrain, and Avenues of approach } when considering terrain:

Observation and Fields of Fire – Positions need to be located so that the area outside the perimeter may be observed in all directions. Fields of fire/observation (or sectors) should overlap. For example, if one position is observing 12 o’clock to four o’clock, then the next position might observe three o’clock to seven o’clock. Other positions would cover similar sectors ensuring the entire “clock” is observed.

Cover and Concealment – Cover is protection from projectiles or other forms of attack. Natural cover, such as logs, dirt berms, or stone are advantageous in a rural or remote environment since they blend in and are often readily available. Man-made cover could include vehicles, retaining walls, sand bags, furniture, or dumpsters. Concealment is protection from observation. Good positions offer defenders a place to hide to avoid being detected and blend in with their environments.

Obstacles – Obstacles force attackers to slow down, stop, or change direction when trying to approach a fighting position. Some natural obstacles include downed trees, cliffs, ravines, streams, boulders, and embankments. Some man-made obstacles include fences, road barricades, concertina wire, parked vehicles, debris piles, berms, and ditches.

Key terrain – Key terrain is any piece of terrain which offers a definite advantage to whoever occupies it. For example, a hill overlooking the retreat would provide obvious advantages for anyone wanting to defend or attack it. Other key terrain features might include intersections of roads or paths leading to the retreat, areas affording excellent cover or concealment, or supply storage buildings.

Avenues of approach – Positions should be able to monitor the roads, paths, waterways and open areas which offer access to the retreat. Attackers are much more likely to come up a driveway than through a forest heavily overgrown with brush. The farther the visibility on avenues of approach, the more warning defenders will have.

After determining where to emplace fighting positions, available personnel must be taken into consideration. If only two or three people will be defending the perimeter, then it may not make sense to build a dozen positions. Even with a dozen people, not everyone will be able to man the positions all the time. Everyone needs to rest some time, so personnel will need to man the positions in shifts. In such a scenario it would probably be better to setup half a dozen fighting positions which could each be occupied by two people at times if needed. If the situation necessitates more fighting positions than available personnel can occupy, then decoys can be placed in unmanned positions.

Equipment will also be a factor in preparing fighting positions. A backhoe can easily dig a foxhole in mere minutes, whereas it may take an hour or more with e-tools or spades. There may only be enough sandbags on hand to fortify a few positions. Different types of weapons work better in some locations than in others. Don’t put the only sniper rifle on the retreat at a position that will be guarding a 100-meter approach up a ravine if there is a position overlooking half a mile of road leading to the driveway. Yours should balance caliber, range, and rate of fire around the perimeter where they will be most effective.

Once the terrain, equipment and personnel considerations have been made, the type of fighting position should be selected. As there is an inverse relationship between the protection offered by a position and the time it takes to construct, the type of position chosen will depend on the opportunity cost between the two. The basic types of fighting positions suited for most retreats will be the hasty, the one-man position, and the foxhole. Each will be described briefly here. For more detailed information, see the following US Army Field Manuals: FM 7-8 (Infantry Rifle Platoon and Squad) andFM 3-21.9 (The SBCT Infantry Rifle Platoon and Squad).

Hasty positions – These positions consist of nothing more than a shallow trench just large enough for a defender to lay prone. The hasty offers no overhead protection and little protection to the front or flanks, but it is the quickest to construct. If there is plenty of time to prepare, then pick a different option. Ideally, one position should consist of two trenches aligned in a V so that two people may occupy it and cover a wider sector (each prone in one leg of the V).

One-man positions – These positions are usually holes just large enough for one person. Cover and concealment can be added to protect the defender. Positions with only one person are the not as desirable as positions with two or more because they leave one person responsible for an entire sector. If something should happen to that one person, then the perimeter would have a gap. If using one-man positions, locate them within site of each other.

Foxholes – Possibly the most recognized fighting positions, foxholes are two-man pits which are the ideal choice for perimeter security. Foxholes should be dug approximately two meters by half a meter and armpit-deep to the tallest defender (shorter individuals will have to stand on something). This will ensure the best cover and natural shooting positions will be afforded to all personnel. Cover and concealment should be added to the fronts and sides of the hole, leaving the two front corners somewhat open for observation/fire.

Create a sector sketch for each position. Draw a pie wedge which represents what the position’s field of observation/fire looks like from the perspective of the person occupying it. Include direction and distance notations. Draw in trees, buildings or other obstructions and label dead space which cannot be viewed behind these obstructions. This information can be used for planning interlocking sectors of fire with other positions. Post a copy of the sketch in the fighting position, so that anyone occupying it has an idea of what they are responsible for watching and where the trouble spots are.
Also, keep a copy or each position’s sketch at the retreat command post (CP) for “big picture” planning and situational awareness.

Fighting positions on the perimeter, once established, should be continually improved. Sectors [of security responsibility] should be cleared of objects limiting lines of site. Cover should be added to the front, sides, rear, and top of the positions. Camouflage should be checked by walking out 50 to 100 meters and observing the position; if it doesn’t blend well with the background it will have to be improved. Communication equipment should be added. TA-312 field telephones or similar closed-circuit devices are a good choice. If practical, stock fighting positions with first aid kits, ammunition, water and other supplies. Details and changes should be added to sector sketches. Crawl trenches can be added between fighting positions for a safe way to move between them.

After fighting positions are well-established, extend the perimeter with obstacles. Put concertina wire or brush 50 to 150 meters beyond fighting positions. Add serpentine barriers or speed bumps to roads or paths. Fell trees across unused avenues of approach. Put up fences. Anything that makes the perimeter harder to breach should be considered.

Early warning systems alert defenders to a possible attack. It’s better to have some advance notice that someone is coming than to be caught by surprise. Some early warning systems are active (require personnel to function). Once such system is a listening post/observation post (LP/OP). LP/OPs are positions which are strategically placed outside the perimeter in a locations which offer observation of a likely line of attack. The object of LP/OPs is usually not to engage attackers, but rather to communicate back to defenders on or inside the perimeter about suspicious activity or pending attacks before trouble reaches the perimeter. Since communication is an LP/OPs biggest weapon, each one should have at least two forms of communication if available. LP/OPs should be camouflaged to the maximum extent possible. Individuals manning the LP/OP should be well disciplined at light and noise discipline to further avoid detection.

Passive early warning systems do not require constant attention from personnel to function. Ordinarily this might include a security system or even a dog that always barks when a stranger approaches the house. A retreat perimeter defense scenario may call for some less conventional options. Passive early warning devices need to be easy to build, effective, and require little maintenance. Trip wires are cheap, and meet these requirements. A simple trip wire can be constructed from “Spiderwire” (or other high-tensile, low-visibility filament), a plastic spoon, a clothespin, and WD-1 commo wire (other stranded pair wire, such as speaker wire, will work). Construct the trip wire [release switches] as follows:

  1. Split apart a several inches of the two WD-1 elements and strip back a few inches of the insulation on both wires.
  2. Pinch open the clothes pin and wrap the exposed wire from one element of the WD-1 around one jaw of the clothespin. Do the same with the other element and the other jaw of the
    clothespin. When the clothespin closes, the two exposed elements should be in contact.
  3. Tie the clothes pin to a fixed object.
  4. Tie the spoon handle to a piece of Spiderwire (you probably want to drill a small hole in the spoon handle).
  5. Clip the bowl part of the spoon in the jaws of the clothespin in order to insulate the two exposed wires from touching each other.
  6. Tie the other end of the Spiderwire to another fixed object across the path, thus forming the trip wire (it should be taut enough to stay suspended across the path, but not so tight that the spoon
    pulls out of the clothespin).
  7. Connect the far end of the WD-1 to the the device to be triggered.

Tripping the line causes the spoon to be pulled out of the clothespin and the exposed wires to touch each other. This completes the circuit at the far end of the wire. This simple switch can be used to activate flares, lights, or alarms.

If no alarm circuits are available, improvised devices like the following may be fashioned. (Check state and local laws, first!):

20 oz bottle blast alarm:

  1. Drill a small hole in a the top of the bottle cap.
  2. Insert an Estes model rocket igniter (available at hobby shops) into the hole and seal with adhesive or melted plastic (cut off the safety seal ring from the cap and melt with a lighter)
  3. Fill the cap nearly full with [FFF or FFFF black] gunpowder.
  4. Pack dryer lint into the cap on top of the powder.
  5. Screw the cap tightly onto the bottle.
  6. When the two ends of the rocket igniter are attached to a power source (6-volt battery
    should be enough) the bottle will explode with a loud bang.

Fuse flare (homemade flash pot, similar to devices available at theatrical shops):

  1. Carefully break and remove the glass in a screw-in [AC electric] fuse. (the kind used before circuit breakers were the norm in American houses).
  2. Use tin snips to cut 3?4 of the way through the metal strip in the fuse.
  3. Screw the fuse into an ordinary lamp socket (socket should be pointed upwards).
  4. Place photographic flash powder (available at theatrical supply stores) in the fuse.
  5. When power is applied to the fuse body, the flash powder will create a bright flash of light.
  6. A piece of Scotch tape will help keep the powder in the fuse
  7. Use model rocket igniters or fine gauge (0000) ] steel wool connected to the electric leads to light the fuse.

[JWR Adds: Although this improvised method will work, it is both expensive and labor intensive. I recommend stocking up on large 1960s-vintage photographic flashbulbs, such as Westinghouse M2 bulbs. These are available on eBay for as little as 40 cents each, if purchased in quantity. (One recent eBay auction was for 300 “new old stock” M2 flashbulbs and the winning bid was just $77.) You might also be able to find similar flashbulbs via Craig’s List or Freecycle. BTW, if you use extreme caution (gloves, safety goggle, et cetera), a hole can be drilled into some flashbulbs, so that a pyrotechnic fuse can be inserted into the mesh core. This allows flashbulbs to double as fuse igniters. Resist the urge to trickle in blackpowder to create a blasting cap. This is far too risky!]

Roman candles or other fireworks:

  1. Use model rocket igniters or [a thin twist of fine gauge (0000)] steel wool connected to the electric leads to ignite the fuse on the firework.
  2. Tape the wires securely to keep them from being dislodged.

A standard operating procedure (SOP) should be developed after the perimeter infrastructure is in place. The best perimeter infrastructure in the world is useless if those defending it are uncoordinated. The SOP should address who will occupy each fighting position and what their areas of responsibility are. It should also specify when, how, and who will perform other critical security tasks including patrolling the perimeter for weak spots, checking communications equipment, re-supplying or redistributing ammunition in the event of an active engagement, treating casualties, rotation of challenges and passwords, length of guard shifts, and anything else that is imperative to the specific retreat. All members of the retreat should be familiar with the SOP, and defensive scenarios should be practiced on a regular basis, preferably by battle drills or at least by talking through the process with the aid of diagrams or sand tables.

While having to resort to defending a retreat is not desirable and may not seem likely, it is still a realistic possibility. Taking the time to build a well planned perimeter defense will be a real advantage in the event of an attack. Going without a plan could be chaotic at best, and cost precious supplies or lives at worst.



Letter Re: Cemeteries as G.O.O.D. Overnight Bivouacs?

Mr. Rawles,
I completed reading your novel “Patriots”, I just finished reading Rawles On Retreats and Relocation, I’m about to read the “SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog” book and I’m going to order the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. I do have a couple of questions:

When one would be Bugging Out, or in route to a retreat, I was thinking about having a cemetery to rest in, they are generally isolated, either on the edge of town or even in the countryside. There is plenty of good cover there like hiding behind headstones and maybe taking shelter in a mausoleum. There again, I am not saying looting or vandalizing them just using their cover for a short time, overnight thing. I have obtained a map of some of the surrounding area where I live, been to a dozen or so cemeteries. Most have good cover, shade and some are close to creeks. It was my thought that even if one was on foot providing that he has done his homework could travel from cemetery to cemetery using something there for shelter. Which leads me to my second question: If I was not comfortable having a drop off point (storage unit) along the way to the retreat, would it be advisable, with the consent of the “group” maybe to “”bury”” something along the way, at an older cemetery or maybe even go as far as buying a grave plot or mausoleum to store G.O.O.D. packs or supplies in? I have searched the Blog and found nothing pertaining to cemetery rest stops and was wondering your take, maybe myself of other readers could take this advise to heart. Always Preparing, – G.D.

JWR Replies: That idea has some merit. Until you mentioned it, I hadn’t thought about buying a mausoleum space. I suppose that Sarah Connor would be proud of your ingenuity!

There are, however, some significant drawbacks to your idea of an overnight stay, especially if you plan to be there at all during daylight:

1.) Most cemeteries are private property and hence are considered “roust vagrants by SOP” zones for local law enforcement, when they patrol. Even cemeteries that are on public property are usually protected from interlopers by numerous ordinances.

2.) Sextons keep a closer eye on graveyards than most people realize. They watch for anything that is out of place.

3.) Rows of headstones only provide limited cover. Because they are laid out in rows, they afford little or no cover from flanking attackers. This, BTW, might be what happened to the World War I aviator Frank Luke, who was an acquaintance of my grandfather, Ernest Rawles.When Luke was shot down during WWI, he attempted to defend himself with a pistol, against a squad of German soldiers that were armed with rifles. According to some conflicting reports, he died in a graveyard near Murvaux, France.

This sad incident, BTW, also illustrates two important precepts of gunfighting: 1.) Superior skills can be overcome by superior numbers, and 2.) A handgun is just a backup weapon–merely a tool that you can hopefully use to “fight your way back to your rifle.” There is a famous old saying, that was later popularized by the movie The Untouchables: “Never bring a knife to a gunfight.” My corollary is: “Never bring a pistol to a rifle fight.” Coincidentally, Luke’s five final aerial victories and his death on the ground the same day will be well-documented in a book that will soon be released “The Stand: The Final Flight of Lt. Frank Luke, Jr.”.) Even though 90 years have gone by, the conflicting stories about Luke’s death are still being debated.



Don’t Confuse the COMEX Spot Prices with Retail Reality–Bullion Coin Supplies are Tight!

I was recently chided by one of my readers for being “dead wrong” about the direction in the spot price of silver. I had to laugh about that. The COMEX spot price of both silver and gold have indeed been pushed down in recent weeks. But this is an artifice. This has been attributed to some massive and well-orchestrated short selling in the futures market. The spot market typically echoes moves in the futures market. This short selling has distorted the COMEX spot price significantly. This distortion has become so pronounced that at this point the official COMEX prices do not reflect reality.

I am getting reports from SurvivalBlog readers throughout the US, Canada, several nations in Europe, Argentina, Taiwan, and Japan that the consumer level supply of silver bullion coins–both 1 ounce .999 fine trade dollar “rounds” and circulated national mint coinage–is so tight that dealers are now paying as much as 60 cents per ounce over spot and selling for as much as $11 per ounce over spot! That is twice the spot price. This is amazing news when you consider that traditionally dealers have paid just below spot, when they buy coins. Here are just a couple of those reports. First, from reader O.E.:

“…I read with wonder the letter from the gentleman asking if you are going to apologize for recommending silver. Has he tried to buy any physical silver recently? We are seeing fairly widespread shortages of retail investment silver. What we have now is a two tier price system. One that harks back to more sinister times. You have the “spot” or official price, at which it is nearly impossible to find silver at, then you have the “physical” or market price which if you look on eBay, or the few bullion dealers who get stock is in a range of $15-$20 per ounce! Its a shame that eBay is one of the few remaining examples of a more or less free market. These major bullion dealers are now paying over spot to buy metals from individuals. Ditto for gold, gold is going for well over $1,000 per ounce in the “physical” market! So I recommend that people read between the lines and not believe everything “they” [in the mainstream media] say is so. It is my belief that market manipulators are using metals prices in a way that will flush out the weaker holders…”

The next report comes from reader Jonathan X.,:

“I noticed a swift change end of July into August – When the Dollar found this freakish footing. The Dollar had been trading to the Euro around $1.55-$1.59. But then almost overnight strengthened 10% and it was back to $1.40-$1.45. (Making US Exports more expensive and less attractive).

What changed was that suddenly I could sell a single 1 oz round for a $0.35 profit [over spot] for a single round. Since I started tracking the market I would take $0.60 loss to sell a single 1 oz round. (Which is where the dealer makes most of his profit.) But suddenly the law of supply and demand got throw out the window. The [COMEX spot] silver price dropped but they were selling at first for $1.25 over spot, then $1.50 over spot, and now $2.00 over spot and still paying a premium [at the purchase end].
I called several dealers the other day, but I found just one dealer who had any actual Silver [physically] on hand. He said that he had only about 50 generic 1 oz rounds. These are just Holiday silver rounds stamped .999, with Christmas tress and Santas. He wanted $6 over spot.

Physical silver is hard to find – dealers are selling on order cash up front and [you can expect to wait] 4-6 weeks for delivery.”

It is noteworthy that he mentioned “Holiday” coin issues. These are one ounce ingots and rounds that are minted for use as Christmas gifts. These have heretofore been treated with such utter disdain by coin dealers that when buying them on the secondary market they pay only the scrap price of silver for them –not nearly the coin or ingot price. (The latter has always been much closer to spot.) Presently, Canadian Maple Leaf and American Eagle silver 1 ounce coins are selling for as much as $12 over the “official” spot price of silver. Talk about market price distortion!

The bottom line: Do not believe the mass media propaganda that has been generated by current spot prices of silver and gold. In relation to the consumer bullion market, the COMEX spot price fixes are illusory. Silver and gold are presently both bargains if you can find anyone willing to sell their coins. I predict that the retail bullion prices of precious metals will be sharply higher in the next few months and then even higher still when the full inflationary impact of the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) is felt in the macro marketplace. Buy every bit of silver and gold that you can lay your hands on if they are being sold anywhere near the artificially low “official” spot prices. Silver dipped to under $9.60 per ounce on Thursday. Buy! (Again, if you can find any.)



Odds ‘n Sods:

Conservative commentator Glenn Beck has followed up his recent economic analysis with this: What Can I Do to Prepare? He stops short of suggesting full-scale survivalist preparedness, but he definitely goes far beyond FEMA‘s “buy a flashlight and three days of food” claptrap, or the standard Nanny-Stater’s “Hold hands, sing Kumbaya, and dial 911 if there is trouble” approach.

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Steve Quayle had a link to this important London Telegraph article: Europe stuns with €1.5 trillion bank rescue, as France plays role of saviour. Steve also had a link to this blog commentary: The Next Derivatives Bloodbath: Insurance and Auto Makers

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Over at Backwoods Home, Massad Ayoob chimes in with an endorsement of the Savage Model 110 / Model 10 series rifles. FWIW, I’m also an enthusiastic Savage bolt action shooter. These are very accurate and reliable rifles that are quite economically priced. (We have a fiberglass-stocked Model 10 chambered in .308 Winchester here at the Rawles Ranch.)

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I’ve had two dozen e-mails from readers in the past few weeks, concerned about an active US Army brigade being tasked with homeland security response. While there are no immediate concerns about martial law (consider that this is 3,000 soldiers in a nation of 300 million well-armed civilians), the whole concept frosts me. The use of Federal troops for civilian law enforcement would clearly be a violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. If you are also concerned about this, then please contact your congresscritters, and give them a piece of your mind.

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More economic news and commentary, mostly from Cheryl. First, in Mish Shedlock’s blog: EU Calls For Summit To End Bretton WoodsDow Swings Widely On Mixed Earnings DataGM To Layoff 1,600 Workers In Three Factories In Coming MonthsPaulson Regrets Economic MistakesMarkets Slump As World Girds For RecessionJapan Dismisses US Bailout As “Insufficient”UBS and Credit Suisse Bailout OutMerkel: World Faces Biggest Crisis Since 1920sCrisis Grows: Ukraine, Hungary And Serbia Call IMFMarkets Feel The Chill From ChinaOil Under $68–15-Month LowRecession Fear Drives Up Grain PricesCracks In Rescue Armor As Nightmare ContinuesRoubini: Largest Bubble Burst In HistoryStock Market Crash Alert!At Indian Call Centers: A Bleak View Of The USDow Ends Up 400 PointsFear and Loathing of Economy Spreads



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"… By calling attention to a well-regulated militia for the security of the Nation, and the right of each citizen to keep and bear arms, our founding fathers recognized the essentially civilian nature of our economy. Although it is extremely unlikely that the fear of governmental tyranny, which gave rise to the 2nd amendment, will ever be a major danger to our Nation, the amendment still remains an important declaration of our basic military-civilian relationship, in which every citizen must be ready to participate in the defense of his country. For that reason I believe the 2nd Amendment will always be important." – John F. Kennedy



Note from JWR:

Congratulations to Dr. H., the high bidder in the monthly SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction that ended last night. Today we are starting a new auction for a mixed lot that includes:

1.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

2.) A custom-made, fully-stocked EMS Medic Bag from Cajun Safety and Survival (a $212 retail value)

3.) A NukAlert radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value)

4.) A case (6 cans, 96 ounces each) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, donated by Ready Made Resources (a $160 value)

5.) An autographed copy of “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” ($24, retail)

See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for complete details on these items. This auction ends on November 15th. The opening bid is just $50. Please e-mail us your bid.



Letter Re: Hope and Preparedness–A Budget Prepper’s Observations

James,
The sheeple‘s fear is now electric. You can feel it bristle on your skin whenever you are in a public space. It is on the lips and in the hearts of any news-watching human.
What about our retirement fund? How will we afford our regular bills? How will we feed and clothe the kids?
There is a little warm spot inside me. The part of me that feels confident in our preparations. Tucked in every nook of our tiny, modest house, an ATM, a grocery store, pharmacy, garden supply plus clothing, shoe, sporting goods stores and all around trading post.
We can grow, can, spin, knit, sew, cook over fire, fish, hunt, protect ourselves.
However, if by some miracle, the economy magically rights itself, nothing was wasted. My son will still need sturdy boots in every size. We can have a blizzard without facing the “french toast” crowd (milk, eggs, bread buyers.) We can spontaneously go on an extended camping trip or entertain at a moments notice.
The best part of being prepared is falling asleep without any worry bigger than, “Did I turn off the kitchen light?”

Here is one of my favorite quotes: “Hope doesn’t come from calculating whether the good news is winning out over the bad. It’s simply a choice to take action.”- Anna Lappe

Hey, BTW, our preparations were all accomplished while surviving without outside help, living way under the poverty level. You can do it. Start by recording every penny you spend, budget, cut costs, get creative and prepare. Hints: barter, Craig’s List, Freecycle, the smash and dent section of your grocery store, store sale cycles, library book sales, yard sales, church sales, demolition sites (with permission, naturally), Salvation Army stores (especially near affluent neighborhoods), and “unlimited pickup” clean up days (ditto).
Thanks for the site and sharing the insights of others. – The Accidental Survivalist



Letter Re: What Happened, and What Should We Watch For?

Jim,
Thanks for the awesome blog. I consider it essential reading every day, especially now considering the terrible situation we find ourselves in. You keep speaking of mass inflation yet we see oil and other commodities falling in price along with, sadly, our home values. In a recent post you also mentioned being able to buy classic cars at rock bottom prices, closely followed by hyperinflation. Can you explain for all of us how this can come to pass and some of the warning signs? Thanks, – DZ in Louisiana.

JWR Replies: To clarify, I mentioned buying older, fuel-inefficient vehicles at the depth of the upcoming recession in then-current dollars. The bottom of the market for vehicles may come before or just after mass inflation begins. Once inflation is in full swing there will surely be a mad rush to convert cash into anything tangible that will be a store of value–regardless of what happens to the currency.

The economic problems that America faces are structural and systemic. They built up because of fractional reserve banking and the consequent growth of mountains of debt, both public and private. Read my background piece: Are Simultaneous Inflation and Deflation Possible?, and this piece on Derivatives. And if you have the time, skim through through my archived economics articles, starting in 2006.

As for the “warning signs” to watch for, you might have missed my reply to a letter in SurvivalBlog post on September 25th: Letter Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For?



Letter Re: An Apology About Recommending Silver?

JWR::
Your repeated bullish calls on silver have been dead wrong. Do you plan on apologizing to your readers? – Jim G.

Jim:
An apology for what? For making people money? You aren’t looking at the big picture if you are only looking at the past few months. If you had invested in silver back in February of 2001 when I went on record and accurately called the bottom of the silver market, then you would have more than doubled your money, even with the recent sag in the market. I made that call within 36 cents of the absolute bottom of the market. I was a few months early, but consider that this was at the tail end of a 20 year-long dreadful bear market in silver. And even if you had bought silver when I first started SurvivalBlog in early September of 2005 (when spot silver was roughly $7 per ounce), then you’d still be substantially ahead. Spot silver is currently just over $10 per ounce, and in recent weeks has been over $13 per ounce. (Since it is a “thin” market, it is always volatile.)

I have never recommended buying precious metals at interim high points. You should buy at interim lows (so-called “dip” weeks.) I’m also an advocate of dollar cost averaging (buying in increments), on successive dip weeks. If you bought all of your silver at an interim high point (such as in March of 2008) then shame on you, not me!

In my estimation, the current dip in the silver market is a pause in what is otherwise still a secular bull market. If you sell your silver now (at a loss), then you’ll probably be crying about it in a couple of years, when inflation kicks in, in earnest. In my opinion the current dip is a good buying opportunity.

OBTW, my current recommendation is that after buying barter silver for your family ($1,000 face value per family member in pre-1965 dimes, quarters, or half dollars), that you then invest anything more in gold rather than silver. In the coming depression gold is likely to outperform silver, since gold is perceived as a monetary safe haven, whereas silver is seen as more of an industrial metal. Both will do well versus nearly any dollar-denominated investments, but of the two, gold will likely gain more than silver.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Paul C. spotted this article: Birmingham on the brink (of bankruptcy). Do you remember my warnings starting in January of 2008 about municipal bonds?

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John and Abigail Adams sent us the URL for a site on North American Indian Recipes.

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Does this word from the mainstream analysts sound familiar? This is from MarketWatch e-Newsletter (on October 14th): “Gold prices could hit $1,500 as global plans to rescue the financial industry are set to increase inflation pressures, according to analysts led by Francisco Blanch at Merrill Lynch. “The unintended consequence of the ongoing financial bailout will be a return of inflationary pressures to the commodity markets,” wrote the analysts in a note released Monday. The analysts didn’t say when gold would hit the price target. They also predicted oil prices will rise to $150 a barrel.” (A tip of the hat to Charley for the link.)

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Several readers mentioned the commentary by Zeus Yiamouyiannis that was posted yesterday over at Charles Hugh Smith’s Of Two Minds blog: Imaginary Worth, Empire of Debt: How Modern Finance Created Its Own Downfall. Several other readers mentioned Glenn Beck’s recent interview of Peter Schiff, now available as a YouTube video clip. Schiff warns of mass inflation fueled by the gargantuan Federal bailouts.

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Cheryl sent us this heapin’ helpin’ of gloom-n-doom cuisine: Coming Soon: The $600 Trillion Derivatives Emergency MeetingDow Plunges 733 Points On New Disheartening Economic NewsSmaller Banks Resist Federal Cash InfusionsFinancial Crisis = Birth Pains Of New CurrencyUS Bailout Fails To Do For Bush What It’s Done For BrownWall Street Humiliated By Nationalization Of BanksUS Treasury Bond Market CrashAsian Markets Return To RealityNow Here Comes The RecessionIceland Forced Into Russia’s Arms: Market Down 77%Chicago Mayor To Shut Down Government For Six Days



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The economic statistics put out by the U.S. government are propaganda, pure and simple. Issued by the government and the financial community, and reported by the mass media, the information we get has been manipulated to mold a public understanding favorable to the agenda of the powers that be." – Peter Schiff, "Crash Proof"