Two Letters Re: Solar Storms

Dear Jim,
Regarding the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that occurred this week that everyone is concerned about. I advise some caution in over-reacting to these types of events. While the CME itself was of a very high magnitude and is spectacular in images, it was never anticipated that it would cause us any problems. Predictions for auroral activity were only in the high latitudes, and auroral activity is a dead-giveaway as to how strong the impact on the ground will be.

The spectacular images we have all seen over the last week immediately told me we had nothing to be concerned about. The CME was silhouetted against dark space; meaning the majority of the CME was pointed away from earth out into space. It’s the less spectacular images we should be concerned about, when the CME occurs directly facing the earth with only the sun’s surface in the background.

The fact that we are still climbing out of solar minimum also saved us. 1. The normal background solar wind was low to begin with. 2. Flares around minimum occur at high latitudes on the sun, meaning there is a much greater change the bulk of the CME will miss us. As solar maximum increases sunspots and CMEs begin to concentrate around the sun’s equator, giving them a much high chance of being directed towards us.

If this particular CME had been pointing towards us we would have been in big trouble, there’s no doubt about that. But there has certainly been a big beat-up by the media over this event which has scared a lot of people. As we all know, you can’t rely on the media for accurate scientific or emergency information, and in this case they were mostly concerned about how good this event looked in print.

The next time there is a large CME most people are going to be saying “look at the last one, it was a flop”, however each event needs to be judged according to the facts. While it looked pretty, this was just a space storm in a teacup.

I advise anyone concerned about these issues to register for Space Weather Alerts with spaceweather.com. You can even have the alerts sent to your mobile, although there is usually a few day’s warning until the CME reaches Earth (could help if you are camping or overseas at the time). At the very least it will give you a heads-up when to watch for aurora. Where I come from (near Sydney, Australia) aurora are an extremely rare treat that you will only see if you have advanced warning and the CME was large enough and pointed directly at us. It’s those “low latitude” aurora events we need to be concerned about.

This event should be used as a warning to the unprepared. Space happens, do get ready for it. Regards, David R.

 

Hi Jim,
Thanks for your note on solar storms on Tuesday. I definitely did an “oh shibitsk” and instead of spending the next 2 hours reading the Internet like I always do I stopped and jumped into action. I immediately took the opportunity to run a “what if” scenario in my head and realized I was no longer where I had been in my prepping. I spent the rest of the day running around town and getting my “stuff” back to where it should be.

In the last couple of months as I’ve read your blog I’ve taken notes of various people writing in with a story regarding running disaster scenarios or being put in brief situations where all of the sudden they are in a mini TEOTWAWKI. The writers would note that part of their discovery was that various elements in their GOOD bag or BOB bag were no longer there because they had dipped into them for whatever reason and found themselves having to run around and look for the item. This is exactly what happened to me yesterday, just in a larger scale than I had realized. It was a little alarming and drove home the need to get more serious with my discipline about my prep work and not dip into stuff. I had managed to unprep my prepping.

Although in my head it is a little understandable how I had gotten into this situation but it was still so not OK. I don’t know how many time yesterday I muttered at myself dumb dumb, stupid. If I had to go with where I was at yesterday morning I would have been in some serious trouble. The stupid part was that I had been in a good place with all the prep work but because I had become lax in my discipline I had wound up putting myself in danger. Fortunately your “heads up” yesterday woke me up and spurred me into action and I had the time to rectify the situation.

I got lax in my discipline because my life took a major turn in May. I was laid off from work after 12 years with the company (I got replaced by a $3 million computer system). Although I received almost a year’s worth of severance and pay outs and had savings to keep me “good” for almost 2 years it changed my daily routine and spending habits. This change then resulted in me dipping into my prep “stuff” and not keeping it as organized as it had been. I will take ya through my day yesterday so hopefully others can realize how easy it is to unprep yourself and how incredibly important it is to maintain our disciplines.

My first stop was the gas station. I had less than 1/4 tank in my truck and had been dipping into my stored gas for the last three months for various yard chores and projects. I had three more new gas cans still sitting empty since I had purchased them. I had shuffled them around for months always noting I need to fill them up but just hadn’t gotten around to it. Dumb! If this had been the real thing I would have been in a bad way. A lot of good it does to have a generator but no gas.

Next stop was the bank. I had less than a thousand dollars on hand. For months instead of going and getting more cash from the bank I just kept dipping into my “prep cash” until it had dwindled down to a lower level than I would have been comfortable with. Of note; the bank seemed “fussy” about withdrawing more than a thousand bucks. I wound up having to go inside instead of just going to the drive through. Seemed to take a while. Fortunately, since I am into Numismatics I have a lot of pre-1964 silver coins around the house.

Next was the hardware store. Again I had become really lax in my disciplines. My propane tanks were dangerously low because I just kept using them without getting them refilled in a timely manner. I had kept telling myself I would deal with it tomorrow. My white gas situation was the same. I picked up the lumber, wire and other tools I had been meaning to do for months.

Then I headed to Costco. This was one of my biggest dumb dumb of all. I had gotten into the bad habit of just “borrowing” a couple of the stored can goods and supplies with the intention that I would replace them “tomorrow”. Because I no longer had an income coming in and needed to change my spending habits I had made a point to stay away from the stores and get used to getting by on a lot less. Only partially successful, I got used to spending less but got dumb with the “borrowing” from my stores. Over three months I found I had “borrowed” myself almost to the state of being unprepped. This also helped me realize the items I had not stored enough of because if I had borrowed my way through them in 3 months where would I be at if TEOTWAWKI lasted for 6-12 months. I have a lot of freeze dried and MREs I had not touched and assumed with these I was in good shape. I reevaluated. Many carts and dollars latter I filled the back of my truck and headed to the next stop.

The sporting goods store. Although I had spent the summer off doing more training at the gun range and getting comfortable with my firearms I had not replaced the spent ammo. This wound up taking quite a few trips to various stores because its not like you can just walk in and buy the kind and quantities you want. Low inventories or no inventory of certain calibers. I had acquired my stores over a period of time and had not really taken note of the available inventory. I picked up mantles, fishing bait and more line, little propane bottles, and various other odds and ends I had used up.

Yesterday wound up being an expensive day but I was not done yet. When I got back to the house I continued running the “what if” scenario and found that I would not be ready to go if I need to. Too many things had gotten out of their original place. The GOOD bag was on the floor of the spare bed room with the items scattered here and there from the last time I dug into it to “borrow” whatever. Same with the medical kit. My truck was no longer packed and ready to go as it had been. As I wandered around the house and out buildings I found the same to be true in too many cases. I spent the rest of the day and am still repacking, inventorying, and resetting all my previous prep work, as well as, finishing doing all the little things I had meant to do but never quite got around to.

It was and is an awesome valuable lesson. Thanks for the heads up! On a good note…I have not spent the summer just sitting around using up stuff but have taken the opportunity to expand other forms of prepping. I finally had the time to explore and practice basic skills that some would take for granted but that I was lacking in. I’ve also spent the time simplifying my life and getting back to the “old ways” of doing things. It also gave me the time to spend in the garden and expand my self-reliance. I also spent the time exploring the area I live in on foot to take note of available resources such as all the wild plants that could be used for food or medicinal purposes. I live by a river and there is an abundance of naturally growing vegetation and I have been devouring books on identification and practical uses.

One of the areas I realized I had taken for granted was water. I have lived by a river for 22 years and have a well with the ground water just being 12 ft. down. I had in my previous prep work stored water for drinking because I’ve spent a lot of time in the back country and filtering pints of water day after day is not that fun. One of serious dumb dumb I discovered yesterday was that I had used a lot of my stored distilled drinking water for the aquarium because it was easier than having to deal with all the chemicals and expensive test strips needed to make tap water safe for aquarium fish. I’ll actually be semi-glad when the fish finally die on their own and I can shut down the aquariums. So, although I did spend the last 3 months seriously advancing some parts of my preparations I got a little too lax in other areas. It is so easy to just borrow or dip into, just this once, into our stores of goods while telling ourselves I’ll replace it tomorrow or the next time I go to town. I chose to take your “heads up” as a “what if” it were now–right this second. It seriously opened my eyes.

Thanks & Take care, – Skylar

Odds ‘n Sods:

Tamara at the View From The Porch blog had a link to a good article about low-light marksmanship training: A Shot in the Dark.

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“Robo” sent us a piece that illustrates how our privacy is shrinking: Hacker tries to read a radio identification tag from 29 floors up. Meanwhile, we read: The Web’s New Gold Mine: Your Secrets. (Thanks to AmEx, for the latter link.)

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Trent H. flagged this article in The Boston Globe: Popularity of farming soars in Massachusetts.

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E.M.B.sent us the link to this terrorism map. It certainly illustrates the wisdom of locating in lightly-populated rural areas.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“There is no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he doesn’t mind who gets the credit.” – Robert Woodruff (President Ronald Wilson Reagan had this quote posted on his desk at the White House)

Economics and Investing:

Chris G. mentioned: ACTA: The War on Progress, Freedom, and Human Civilization

An interesting piece over at The Daily Bell: Why Bankers Didn’t See Collapse.

Frequent contributor K.A.F. says: “States are taking on more debt. Here’s your state’s burden per capita“. JWR Adds: What I found amazing is Massachusetts. How can they tax their citizens so much, yet still end up short of funds?

Lee C. recommended a 25 minute long BBC Radio Interview on the Credit Crisis and the Risk of Another Crash.

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 30 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 30 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Home Sweet Home on the Range–Bedroll Basics, by D.K.

When assembling your post-apocalyptic, biker zombie, total collapse of civilization kit (or just getting started in camping) one item you should consider as part of your kit is a classic bedroll.

History
A classic bedroll, not the stuff of Hollywood or television, but the kit of real working men is both comfortable and multipurpose.  They are not lightweight, small, or easy to backpack.

Please allow me to share the road I took to get to my current bedroll.  I will try to describe the attributes of a good bedroll, suggest the minimum bits for a good durable bedroll, and provide some links to historical information on military use of bedrolls.  Finally, there will be some links to sources of commercial bedrolls in case you wish to buy rather than roll your own.

I got my first bedroll when I started with the Scouts – the Troop I joined was led by combat Vets from both WWII and the Korea conflict – it really was a para-military uniformed youth training organization with a focus on ‘real’ military skills – just as Lt. Gen Robert Baden-Powell had first envisioned in 1907.  That early experience and training from these Vets has stayed with me.

Anyway, the bedroll was an old tarp, as an adult I now see it likely started life as a WWII or Korean vintage Jeep trailer cover.  This cover held a pair of Army-issue wool blankets – all given to me to ‘get started’.  The system worked to keep me warm at night, if not all too comfortable.

I used this setup until I started in serious backpacking.  Short of funds, I upgraded to a new system using a surplus Case, Water-repellent, for Bag, Sleeping and a home made wool blanket liner.  The liner was made out of the blankets on hand.  Mom (gotta love ’em) helped me to cut and sew them into a modified mummy style reaching to my armpits.  The blanket leftovers were made into a kind of cape.  I re-waterproofed the poplin case by soaking it in raw linseed oil.  It took the poplin fabric a while to dry completely in the AZ sun/heat, but when completely dry, was proven to be a waterproof and windproof cover.

When I landed a job as a staff member at the local Scout mountain camp, I purchased a ‘real’ (commercial) sleeping bag.  By the end of the summer, the bag was completely shot – sleeping every night in the bag for just under 90 days destroyed it – lesson learned.  I also had to carry a ground cover and tent when away from the main camp.  Later, I worked for a Geoexploration company while in college.  This job meant sleeping in the field for 4 or 5 days a week – with very limited space in the truck to carry personal gear.

That bedroll was made from my recycled Scout tarp, a pair of new surplus wool blankets and three commercial furniture pads obtained used from the local rental outfit.  When warm, the pads were a comfy mattress, when cold, they helped the wool to keep me toasty.  A second tarp was used in very rainy weather as a wedge tent to keep the water out of our faces.

In the military I used the issue bags, but I had my wife make another semi-mummy liner from a surplus wool blanket – on the really cold nights it made a difference.  I spent one of the most miserable Fall nights in my life sleeping in Death Valley using a pair of issue poncho liners and a poncho.  I think my wool ‘liner’ would have made a big difference, but the wool liner was left at home to save weight.  Never again.  I also added a shelter half to provide shade/wind protection in my ‘go kit’.

This brings me to describing the attributes of a good bedroll:

First, the bedroll must be durable – as in brick outhouse durable.  This means it must stand up to nightly use for weeks on end.  It must suffer and survive abuse like rocky ground, rubbing against other kit, heat, drenching rain, (well below) freezing cold and dirt.  It must be able to survive a soaking and be usable within a short period of time. 

Second, your bedroll should be a stand-alone item for use.  Your bedroll should not require an additional ground cloth or tent to be used.  As I mentioned earlier, a second tarp is nice, but should not be required.  If a second tarp is used, it may be lightweight as it will likely receive little abuse from day to day s use.

Third, the bedroll must be comfortable!  If you are forced from your home/primary shelter, you will spend up to 1/3 of your life in this bedroll.  That means you must be able to adjust to extremes in temperatures, ground conditions, humidity and rain.  After busting hump for 12 hours, a bad night’s sleep can make a tough job into one that is unbearable. 
Your bedroll should be easy to enter and exit – especially for that late night nature call or zombie attack.  The size you ultimately choose will depend on your style of sleeping.  I can no longer stand the confines of a mummy style system for long periods, for example, so mine is large and roomy.

Fourth, the bedroll must be easy to maintain.  Cleaning and maintenance of the bedroll components must be done without commercial washer/dryers or sewing machines – if you cannot take care of your bedroll in the field, you face some very bad nights indeed.

The bedroll should have room for some of your kit (small tool/sewing kit, extra socks, a clothing change and perhaps a hygiene kit) without compromising the waterproof nature of the bedroll.  At the very least you should certainly keep a set of loosely fitting polypro long johns, a poly baklava and a set of heavy (wool, of course) socks to sleep in during colder weather.  A pocket for a pillow is a nice touch.

The bedroll will not fit a stuff sack, so you must be able to roll it in such a manner as to allow the cover to keep rain, mud, dust and bugs out of the bedding.  That also means good solid roll straps, at least three, that are large enough to hold the roll and stay put.  You should consider a couple of additional straps to provide a means to attach the bedroll to your transportation – from a truck or a donkey to a hand cart.

The basics parts of a bedroll – you can add as you learn.
A sturdy bedroll is made of:
A cover or shell that is both waterproof and brick-outhouse durable.  This is the make or break item on a bedroll.
Bedding, warm, durable and with the ability to accommodate changing weather.  I have some pretty strong ideas of what works and that will be shared a bit later.
An insulator or mattress – both for comfort and to reduce loss of body heat into the ground.  A means to hold this mattress is a real plus.
A storage system to accommodate those few additional sleep related items you do not want in your ruck or haversack.
Straps to hold the bedroll, well, rolled.

Lets see how these mandates have worked out in the current edition of my latest bedroll.

Cover:
Made of Number 1 canvas duck, it was cut, washed in very hot water to shrink the weave and reduce shrinkage while in use.  Beginning with a large piece of canvas to reduce the number of seams, the material was cut into 3 pieces.  Using a local tent maker, the cover had webbing (tape) sown into the 1.5 inch edge seams, double stitched with heavy, waxed, UV stable thread.  An additional roll of thread was purchased for any future repairs that might be needed.  Sown with industrial machines, each corner was bar stitched and industrial brass grommets were placed across the ‘top’ and down the ‘open’ side to almost waist level.  All seams were sealed to stop water infiltration.

At the top, an additional piece, just under 4 feet in length, slightly more than the width of the ‘bag’ was attached at the time that seam was taped and edged.  The third piece was sewn to this flap to make a pocket prior to attachment to the cover.  This pocket has a slot (that may be laced shut) to allow access.  The entire piece of fabric was waterproofed.  This hood can serve as a mini-tent in bad weather.

A quick note here – how you waterproof the cover fabric matters.  Check the Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS) for any waterproofing material used.  Some ‘classic’ methods may carry a health risk – for example, commercial “boiled linseed oil” may contain drying agents that pose a health hazard.  All linseed oil is both flammable and material may heat and burn spontaneously if not dried completely.  Commercial waterproofing products may not be compatible with your cover material.  Read the label completely – ask questions is you are not sure.  Always check the MSDS.

The actual size of your bedroll cover will be determined by how you sleep and the type of bedding / mattress chosen for your system.

Bedding:
If you have not figured it by now, I am quite partial to wool blankets as bedding. On the plus side – Wool is durable!  In researching the web for some additional data for this piece, I found several WWI Army Quartermaster Corps issue blankets for sale – and some still used by re-enactors.  Wool is naturally fire resistant; wool will offer insulation even when damp.  Wool can absorb almost 20% of its weight in water before reaching total saturation– that is defined as the point at which absorbed water begins leaking back out of the fabric – in other words, onto your skin. 

On the minus side, wool is a natural product that loses some strength or can break down when overheated – hot water is okay, steam is not – so drying via a campfire is best done carefully.  Wet wool also loses some strength – so, again, dry it carefully.  Dry wool can become quite brittle – usually not a problem when used as bedding – just use care in storage to avoid too dry of conditions.  Insects are also a consideration in storage.

I found that our local Army-Navy surplus store had some of the “Italian military” surplus blankets recently seen in various on-line outlets.  Reasonably priced, they weight over 5 pounds each, a good sign of quality in a woven wool blanket.  Initially compressed from long storage and reeking of insect repellant, after several washings they are now fit for duty.  Three of these blankets and a wool liner from a national outdoor supplier and we have almost all that is needed for a comfy set of bedding.  The liner, of Merino wool, allows me to keep the other blankets clean should I have to hit the rack while dirty.  There are liners made of linen, polypro, and fleece that will likely work as well – I just happen to like wool.

The mattress
Right now I am back to an interlaced pair of furniture pads, as I have used before.  This is a stopgap measure while looking for a suitable covered closed cell foam pad.  Several commercial products are offered by different outfitters, some with a cover for the pad to resist moisture accumulation.  My concerns lie with both the durability of any of these products as well as the finished width – all I have seen offered are relatively narrow – about 25 inches or so.  The Pacific Outdoor Equipment Mega Mat looks – at 32 x 78 inches – like it might be a good pick, I am trying to find a local source for some hands-on time – at $150 or so, not an instant choice.

Wrapping it all up
Keeping things tidy are a set of straps I talked the parachute shop into sewing up for me some years back.  Made from salvaged C-60 cargo parachute harnesses they are stout, to say the least.  Any surplus store should have these kind of heavy duty strap sets – ensure you have the buckles that match the webbing.  Too large and the strap will slip, too small and you cannot lace the webbing through the buckle.  If you can find some Capewell release type buckles, you will be pretty close to bombproof strap sets.  At least one pair of large/long straps will allow you to secure your bedroll to transport.  My bedroll rides in the truck or on my home-made cargo cart.

How well does this work?
Well for me, just fine.  I just finished a week-long gig at a remote camp here in Alaska and slept both cozy and warm, despite the cold and rainy nights.  In this case, I did nave an unheated shelter – open to the wind – but was as toasty as can be.  Getting out of bed in the morning was a bit of a challenge though.

Will this setup work in the dead of an Alaska winter?  To be honest, I hope to never find out, but it goes in the rig when traveling out of town in case an avalanche or bad accident closes the road.

If you plan on only ‘truck camping’ you may wish to consider a reproduction M-1935 Bedroll with blankets – designed for use with an issue cot, these are well thought out military ‘system’ and should provide good service for temperate climates.  Any good tent maker should be able to fabricate one from canvas goods on hand.  The so-called Auzzie swag bags are another possibility to consider.

Random thoughts:
A maintenance kit should have a sewing awl, thread, good size chunk of beeswax in a tin and a half a toothbrush to apply the wax.  A few large needles, heavy thread and a small set of scissors will help keep your blankets or clothing in good repair.  Learn to use a ‘blanket stitch” or “lock stitch”
A good way to keep the loose stuff in your bedroll less loosely is to cut up an old set of BDU or ACU pants.  Cut the leg just below the cargo pocket and sew the cut end shut.  Use this as stuff sack for socks, drawers, etc – using the drawstrings to close the sack.  This sack will allow you to roll loose items with fewer lumps.
A pair or two of very heavy wool socks will keep your toes warm, and may be used to fashion a neck or ear warmer and in a pinch,,or as as hand warmers/mittens.

 

Want to buy and not build? Try some of these links to see they have what you are looking for:

Letter Re: Archiving Downloaded Instructional Videos

Jim,

With all of the talk about the so-called Internet Kill Switch, and more and more people referencing online instructional videos, it might be time for people to start downloading these videos to their local computers. An easy way to do this is with the Firefox Fast Video Download plug-in. While watching an unlicensed video on YouTube and other sites, select the Tools menu, Fast video download, and then select the video you want to save. The videos may have the name of the video or a generic name like youtube_video. The extension may be .flv or .mp4, or there may be one or more of each. Select the format that you want (I personally prefer .mp4) and save the file, renaming it if you need to. To playback either of the files I recommend the VLC Media Player, which is available for Windows, Mac, and Linux. The combination of the Fast Video Download plug-in and the VLC Media Player give you a free way to build up that survival video library and use it without an Internet connection, anywhere. – LVZ in Ohio

Letter Re: Solar Storms

Hi Jim,
Your note of last night regarding the pending solar storm was the strongest prep wake up call I’ve had yet. Especially as I finished reading One Second After Been just last night! I’ve been up all night making sure things are in order the best I can.

Now that I’ve done what I can, and still wound up on adrenaline, I spent some time digging through the Internet for more EMP information. I thought that this Huffington Post article really explains some of the real dangers quite well – such as how the transformers that are damaged by solar storms weigh over 100 tons, cannot be field repaired, and must be replaced – yet there is a 3 year waiting list for new ones right now! Yikes!

God bless, and praying this storm is only a wake up call and not the full deal! – Steve C

Two Letters Re: TEOTWAWKI: Getting Folks to Recognize the Possibility

Sir,

As a recent “convert” to Rawlesian Survivalist Philosophy, I very much identify with the author of “TEOTWAWKI: Getting Folks to Recognize the Possibility.” I did, however, take issue with his conclusion regarding
his treatment of family members in a Schumeresque world.

Having recently presented my “list of lists” to my wife, she made the comment to me that my quantities were off. As a future pastor (I am currently serving in the Navy and preparing to enter seminary) she made the point that if the SHTF we would undoubtedly be taking in strays from my congregation who did not heed the warning signs. I thought this was an excellent point, and I think that all preppers should take this in consideration and consider expanding things like stored food quantities to allow for family members and friends who may show up at your door.

One of the biggest things I have respected about your philosophy is that it has a perspective firmly centered on Christ, and the truth of His Word to us. I believe that in a case WTSHTF, we will have an immense opportunity to see the way that God may bless us and bless others by association. But more importantly, I believe that we have to cling to right principles of doctrine. Though the author of this recent article makes a very fair case for turning aside even lazy family members, I believe we must adhere to the words of 1 Timothy 5:8: “If anyone does not provide for his relatives, and especially for his immediate family, he has denied the faith and is worse than an
unbeliever.” James 1:27 and Matthew 25:34-40 are other good verses to help us call to mind that Christian preppers are preparing for the Kingdom as well, and part of that means putting our faith in Him and following His instructions to us. I believe that if we were to find ourselves in a situation where we feel we would be endangering our stockpile (and our immediate family) by taking in strays, we must remember to approach such a situation prayerfully and even make the hard decision to trust beyond our own understanding, where God may be providing in ways we have yet to see unfold. Regardless of circumstances, I believe we cannot fail where we exercise faith and follow the Lord’s lead.

In closing, thank you for all your work, and especially for the highly excellent read that “Patriots” is. I look forward to reading your further work in the series.

Very Respectfully, – Michael W.

Dear J.W.R.:
I thought that I would share a quick note of how I overcame a similar situation of warning those that I love. I have been a long time preparedness minded person, and it has become a passion in my later years. I have five brothers and sisters, and my wife has the same. The family knows of our preparedness, and all think that I will have enough for everyone when the SHTF. With that in mind, I have tried my hardest to get them involved. The best thing that I have found is to apply to their strengths. I tried the just warning them path and met with resistance. After a lot of prayer and pondering, it came to my mind that if I used the strengths they each had, they would become excited and want to help. For example. I have a sister-in-law who has thought about food storage, but has never been motivated enough to do it, and certainly did not do anything past that. So in getting my medical supplies in order and to obtain things that are not common to Wal-Mart, I sat her down and told her what I was doing and what I wanted it for. I explained how critical the medical supplies are for a situation that I feel is right around the corner. With her being a home care nurse she took to it like a duck to water. We created a spreadsheet for what we have, what we need, what cost are involved, and what training we need. I have some supplies, and she has some. She thinks it is awesome. If she comes to the table with her food, and the best medical supply kit ever, she is more than welcome in my group. We have done the same with those who have auto skills on getting our travel vehicles ready. We have an engineer who took to ham radio, mother-in-law that took to the garden. I still have those who think that I am crazy and laugh, but I have been able to focus on the strengths of others and have got some great help. The best part is, we are getting experts is each field. This allows me more time to focus on other factors that I have been put in charge of and not have the stress and the worry of having to carry all of the weight. Keep up the great work and God bless. Thanks, – S.C.L

Economics and Investing:

B.B. was the first of several readers that sent us this: Commodities – Wheat Soars; Rogers Sees ‘Much Higher’ Food Prices. Got your wheat yet? Stop dawdling!

L.J. in England sent this: Food prices to soar 10% in time for the New Year.

Reader J.C. sent this: Global Wheat Shortage Feared.

“Boosters” spotted this: Is the End Game Hyperinflation or Debt Implosion?

James Altucher: 7 Reasons Not to Send Your Kid to College. (A hat tip to L.L. for the link.)

Allen E. forwarded a news item: A Run on Spanish Banks?

K.A.F. sent this: World oil prices approach $82

S.M. kindly sent us a whole raft of economic articles:

Faltering US recovery trips dollar

China Seeks to Widen Gold Market

Superman Comic Saves Family Home From Foreclosure

Pending Home Sales Hit Record Low

Cash Strapped California Consider Legalizing Sports Gambling

Stimulus Slammed: Republican Senators Release Report Alleging Waste (Really, government waste? It couldn’t be.)

Odds ‘n Sods:

K.A.F. sent an item for the “Surely, you jest” Department: EPA to Crack Down on Farm Dust. Perhaps cattle could be tranquilized or trained to not raise dust. They should commission a study.

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This is His Grandfather’s Bug, But Now It’s Electric. (Thanks to Len for the link,)

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Reader Susan Z. sent this: Arizona Sheriff: ‘Our Own Government Has Become Our Enemy’

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F.G. sent this: Rabid dogs kill at least 78 people in Bali, Indonesia.

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K.A.F. sent the link to this web page: The Sun as You’ve Never Seen It Before. 16 slides of the sun and the CME.

Note from JWR:

Headlines like this one (from Monday, August 2nd) serve as wake-up calls: NASA scientists braced for ‘solar tsunami’ to hit earth; The earth could be hit by a wave of violent space weather as early as Tuesday after a massive explosion of the sun, scientists have warned. Are you prepared? Have you prepared your family for the big Coronal Mass Ejection(CME)? The one big enough to take down the power grids? Have you thought through all of the implications and interdependencies, and made adequate preparations, accordingly? I pray that you are already well-prepared. If you’ve been reading SurvivalBlog for a few months, at least you’ve been warned.

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Today we present another entry for Round 30 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 30 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

TEOTWAWKI: Getting Folks to Recognize the Possibility, by M.G.K.

This article is about something that many preppers think about, convincing friends and loved ones that TEOTWAWKI could happen at any moment.  For most of us this idea hadn’t occurred to us until we stumbled across it or a good friend hinted at it.  The important thing to remember is that we had to come to believe it ourselves for it to make an impact on our lives.  I think the greatest fight all of us have is getting people that we love to actually consider that TEOTWAWKI can happen and that it is a reality that looms in front of us.

I am not a long time prepper.  For the most part, I used to think that people that did this kind of stuff were backwards and slightly paranoid.   I became a believer about six months ago.  As a science teacher I have the summers off so my last month has been spent in reading, reading, and more reading about prepping.  My mindset has totally changed and I actually think about the future and becoming self-sufficient day in and day out.
For myself, the idea of an economic collapse has always been at the back of my head but I always thought this could be survived with little preparation.  What changed it all for me was the idea of an EMP burst over North America.  As a science teacher, this idea came across to me as very plausible as I know the ids myself was no.

This has changed my mind set into prepper mode.  I turned to my wife that day and told her about what an EMP burst could do.   We talked about it and within a minute she became a prepper too!  God, I love that woman.  As fiercely independent as she is, she can understand sense when she hears it.  Over the next month I started thinking about my immediate family and started making short term plans for if it happened tomorrow.  Then I made plans for if it happened in three months, six months, a year, and so on.  My wife and I, being at a flexible point in our lives, have made plans to move to the country sometimes in the next one to two years and onto a wooded property in the country that we can farm, defend, et cetera, should the SHTF.  Needless to say, every day that passes I will be a little bit more prepared.

Enough of my short history, now let’s get to the heart of the letter.  Right now, most of us can think about extended family members that have very little or no knowledge of TEOTWAWKI and are woefully unprepared.  If you’re like me this probably makes your stomach turn a little as you picture them when the SHTF and what life would be like for them.  How do you and should you approach them with this knowledge?  As much as it kills me to write this, not all of my family members are mentally prepared to survive and would be a total hindrance in a survival situation.  I must think of my wife and my four kids before I think of them.  Deep in my heart, I know I am the kind of person that must warn them, whether they are mentally prepared or not.  I will tell you my story of trying to convince my family members of TEOTWAWKI.

I used different tactics for each of my family members.  For the ones that were money-minded, I approached them with the idea of a total economic collapse.  For the ones that are science-minded, I approached them with the idea of an EMP burst.  I learned these two ideas as best I could so I could field and answer any questions that were thrown at me.  Finally, my parents passed away years ago but I still have three sisters, and one brother that I could warn.  This is my story and their reactions, from oldest to youngest.  Remember, to everyone my attempt to convince was very low-key and I was not standing with a “The End is Nigh” sign on a soap box.

1.) My oldest sister and husband are money-minded and very well-off financially.  They would probably be able to build whatever and buy whatever if they could be convinced.  I was laughed at by my brother-in-law.  He is convinced that the financial doomsayers just want to sell gold.  I warned them, smiled, thanked them for their time and went away never to mention this again.  I do not think they will ever be convinced that the world will ever change from the current situation, until it is too late, that is.

2.) My brother is overweight and aged beyond his years.  Despite working in a shipyard his entire life he is very sedentary and because of this he has major health problems.  He accepted the idea of an EMP burst but he and his wife said they are convinced that the military could stop this.  His reaction was to totally bury his head in the sand, convinced the government will protect us no matter what happens.

3.) My middle sister is five years older than me and is the closest to me.  I came straight out and told her what I believe and she believes now too.  She and her husband have actually been prep minded for a long time but had no idea what they were preparing for.  I told her husband to Google “SHTF”. He and I now have regular discussions.

4.) The youngest of my sisters is a tragic story in my family.  Although she is 42, because of drug usage she looks like she is 65.  Her daughter, my niece, is the fourth child in my family and we have full custody of her due to the situation.  The only reason I approached her with this was because of my niece.  Being drug addled it just turned her paranoid and I had to wash my hands of it and leave.
This does more than just warns the people involved, it clears my conscience if TEOTWAWKI does occur.  They all now have an equal chance to prepare, lose weight, get off of drugs, etc.  I was able to convince 25% of my family members and now include that sister and her husband in future plans to survive when the SHTF together. 

If you plan to approach family members with this, here is some advice:

A.)  Make a mental list of family/friends that you want to warn.  Family members were a priority but now at this point I shall move on to close friends.

B.)  Think of their interests and decide which TEOTWAWKI scenario to approach them with.  Know all about it.  My family members are all very intelligent and will “what if” you to death, so you have to know your subject matter back and forth.

C.) Do not beat them over the head with it, introduce the ideas in a casual conversation, plant a seed, answer questions, and let them come to conclusions.  You know your family members and can gauge how to approach this.  I suggest approaching family members one by one with these ideas.

D.)  Be prepared for reactions that range from being laughed at to being believed.  If you are laughed at, don’t get angry, just tell them that you love them and just thought they should know the possibility exists.  At this point, wash your hands of it.  You tried to tell them.

As mentioned earlier, my wife and I will purchase a country property within the next one to two years.  My four family members listed above will know where it is.  I will let them know that they are all welcomed there should the SHTF when they meet the following conditions:

1.) They have stored three months supply of food for every member of your family on our property or they carry that quantity in their vehicles when they arrive,

2.) They are willing to defend the retreat property.

3.) They, and all members of their family, will be assigned duties and accept as heavy a workload as their health allows.

As sad as I am to say this, if a family member shows up at our property and cannot agree to the foregoing, I will give them a pack with one week’s food in it and send them on their way.  Will this be hard? Yes, indeed!.  I refuse to let my wife and four children go hungry for the benefit of people who were warned and simply refused to listen, family or not.  These are adults I am dealing with and as adults they should be able to make informed decisions. 

Will I give up on the family members that refuse to believe?  No, I have their e-mail addresses and will send them links to continue to encourage them to prepare for the worst.  If they come around to the SHTF mindset and begin preparing, then they are more than welcome at our retreat.  In the meantime, I share my survival books with my brother (who like me, has always liked this kind of stuff) in hopes that when the SHTF, maybe something in there will help him and his wife survive.   As long as I know I have tried, then I know I will be able to sleep at night.   Good luck convincing your own family, and God Bless.

Three Letters Re: Real World EMP Effects on Motor Vehicle

Sir,
I read the report in the government document regarding the effects of EMP on vehicles. The vehicles were only tested at 20k V/m then up to 50k V/m if they survived the first test. The reason that they were not tested beyond 50k V/m is that is what is the “known” maximum that would be released. The Russians have purpose-built EMP warheads that are speculated to emit 1m V/m to 2m V/m (100k V/m to 200k V/m). These weapons would completely destroy sensitive engine management controls. To put this in a little more perspective, the Starfish Prime test in 1962–that blew out street lamps [hundreds of miles away] in Hawaii–was only 5.6k V/m.

Setting all of this aside we still have a greater threat from an coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun. If the United States were to be attacked with EMP weapons it would be bad, but localized to our continent, Canada and Mexico would feel some of the results. If we have a massive CME it could have the same EMP effects except worldwide, and at a higher V/m than any weapon could produce. Nuclear weapons emit 50k V/m voltages in milliseconds, a CME hit could last for minutes. If we were attacked it would be possible we could get help from allies, but if it were to be a solar event the whole planet could be in the same boat.
Here is a segment from a Future Weapons episode that shows a vehicle experiencing just such an event, and it does not restart.

This is why I am keeping my non-computer controlled 1980s era 4×4 diesel truck. – The Last Conservative in California

Hi Jim,
Michael Williamson provides some very usable data, and considering the already existing, grounded shielding built-into vehicles, this resistance of automobiles and trucks to EMP makes sense.

However, most EMP measurements I’m familiar with, particularly after a nuclear detonation, occur in the hundreds of thousands, not just tens of thousands of volts. I think we still need to actively prepare for an EMP event. Besides, the way I store my unused electronics (in Mylar bags, placed in ammo cans, connected to earth ground) and electronic motorcycle components also helps to protects them from fire, flood, etc.

While an EMP event would be classified as “seldom” in a risk assessment matrix, its severity would be off the scale, to the point where those of us with anything electronic, and working, would be perceived as gods. Cheers, – J.E.

Dear James,
I’m responding to Michael Z. Williamson’s letter “Real World EMP Effects on Motor Vehicles” regarding the likely outcome for our transportation system after an EMP event. Based solely on the simulations he cited, his is a reasonable view. Unfortunately, simulations aren’t the real world, and I doubt our transportation system would hold up.

In all transportation concerns, I place heavy emphasis emphasis on the word system. It’s reasonable to regard the transportation system as a living organism, and we all know there are numerous ways to kill any organism. In the simulation, all the cars restarted, and that’s comforting. But – one out of 18 trucks had to be towed in for repairs. Here’s a thought experiment based on the 1/18 failure rate: I’m assuming that the disabling damage was to electronics, and that the damage rate held nationwide. First, the backlog for replacement electronic parts would stretch into months or years.

Sure, you’d probably find a handful of electronic control modules (ECMs) or the various sensors for any given engine at truck dealers in any major city. Problem is, there are tens of thousands of trucks in proximity to any major city on any given day. If one out of twenty of those trucks failed, it would take a week or two just to tow them all in to the shops. Available parts would quickly disappear into the trucks towed in first. (The lucky recipients might be the tow trucks, for all we know.) And, if components failed on the truck, who’s to say any replacement parts on dealer’s shelves will be any good? Then there’s the still-running fleet’s need for ongoing repairs, including plenty of their own electronic issues. Sure, those trucks survived the initial burst, but what would happen to the failure rate of their electronics? Also, how will the electronics manufacturers function after EMP? Will they be able to produce more parts, and what’s that time frame? There are further issues, but at least the problem is in focus now.

If one in twenty trucks nationwide were inoperable it would put a serious crimp in just in time (JIT) deliveries. As your readers know all too well, JIT inventories/deliveries are already stretched to the breaking point. Combine that with a bit of nervousness on the part of the unprepared…

Trucks also carry fuel. Minus fuel distribution, the transportation system grinds to a halt in a matter of days. I’ll skip past the distribution challenges, and pipeline/refining SCADA issues (all very real, but hard to relate to) and focus on a link we all know well: gas pumps. When you stick your credit card in that slot, you’re effectively operating an ATM – an ATM that dispenses liquid gold instead of paper money. ATMs depend on a working power grid, along with functioning Internet/telecom and banking systems to operate. Don’t bet on using cash, either – if electronics at the station or in the pump are fried or if the power grid is down, the pump simply won’t run. The brain (car computers) may survive, but if the blood (fuel) doesn’t flow then your car is dead anyway.

In survival planning, we generally deal with icebergs. It’s small comfort that a visible part of this iceberg fared well in a simulation – a government simulation at that! Cars/trucks in close proximity to miles of conductor (power lines, pipelines, rails etc.) may experience much stronger pulses than were simulated. How will they fare, and does it even matter? I say it doesn’t. I remain convinced that the transportation system will collapse after an EMP event, and that it will fail at multiple weak links. At least some of the cascading failures would have nothing to do with the vehicles themselves, and some of those would occur in systems I haven’t even addressed here.

EMP is a grave scenario, and I’m praying we never find out about it firsthand. As always, James, thanks for your yeoman efforts on the SurvivalBlog.

Regards, – Fred H.