Reader P.D. spotted this: Global Exposure in Financial Derivatives Surpasses One Quadrillion Dollars
This was linked at the Total Investor blog: Economist Shiller Sees ‘Bad Recession,’ Stocks Could Drop Again. “Shiller says that this is a dreaded “liquidity trap.”
The MOAB keeps growing: Fannie & Freddie: The most expensive bailout (Thanks to Charlie W. for the link.)
From “HP” comes this piece by Mish Shedlock: Bernanke Terrified Over Commercial Real Estate, Seeks Still More Power Over Consumers
Heather flagged this: Cash-strapped states raid 911 funds
Items from The Economatrix:
Global Exposure in Derivatives in Excess of One Quadrillion Dollars
24 Trillion Reasons to Buy Gold
Strategist: China Politely Moves Away From Dollar
US Foreclosure Crisis Spreads to New States
Awash in Nonsense (The Mogambo Guru)
John Galt: Welcome to the Eye of the Storm “Welcome to the eye of the storm. And that storm, as displayed above, is Hurricane Wilma, the most intense storm in recorded history. That storm is getting ready to move again and the most powerful part of the eyewall is about to slam into our economic fantasy land at full force.”
Massive Airline Cuts as Business Travel Plunges
New Fed Role: “Super Cop” to Police Banks
No Jobs, No Insurance; Hard Times for Young Adults
Coca-Cola 2Q: Profits Up 43%
Starbucks Back to Roots with Cafe Concept
Bernanke Says Jobs, Consumers are Key
Brazil and Canada Begin Dumping US Treasury Bond Debt
Bernanke Fights Threat by US Congress to Audit Fed
Chris O. sent this article, that came from of all places, GQ magazine: Could You Survive Without Money? Meet the Guy Who Does. “In Utah, a modern-day caveman has lived for the better part of a decade on zero dollars a day. People used to think he was crazy.”
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My Brother in Christ Bob G. this: Middle East atomic conflict would kill tens of millions: report
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Didn’t Joe Biden ever take OPSEC 101? It ‘s only a “secret bunker”, if you keep it a secret.
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The asking price of the North Idaho Turn Key Retreat (advertised on our spin-off SurvivalRealty,com site) has just been dropped 22% to just $299,995. That is a real bargain for a property in such a desirable region.
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In his 1987 movie Robocop, Paul Verhoven fairly accurately predicted a future where corporations would effectively own and operate Motor City: Detroit: The Post-Apocalyptic Future of American Cities?
“Windage and elevation, Mrs. Langdon. Windage and elevation…” – John Wayne as Col. John Henry Thomas, The Undefeated.
Thanks to the efforts of my agent, both Ulysses Press and Penguin books have reached separate agreements to make audio books of my novel “Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse”
In other publishing news, Amazon.com now has the final cover illustration for my upcoming book “How to Survive the End of the World As We Know It” on their web site. This 336-page non-fiction book is scheduled for release on September 29th. Be advised that Amazon is already taking pre-orders, but I’d greatly appreciate it if you’d wait to order until the “Book Bomb” Day, September 29th. By massing our orders on that day, I hope to make the book a best-seller, just as we did for “Patriots” , back in April. That drove the book up to #6 in Amazon’s overall rankings, and attracted lots of media attention. That was also the impetus for the contract from Simon & Schuster for two “Patriots” sequels that will be released in 2010 and 2011. Many Thanks!
Dear JWR,
I read the EMP article by Andru and thought it very well done with one minor correction in the power generation area (worked in the nuclear power industry for 20 years before changing careers). The EMP E3 pulse is very dangerous to the transformers in the transmission and distribution system, and hydro-electric and nuclear will also be severely affected. Commercial generators of any output run at 8,000-10,000 volts which is fed immediately to step up transformers to feed the transmission system. The most common voltage for the transmission system is 250,000 to 500,000 volts (3 phase) which reduces amperage and therefore reduces line losses. The power goes from the power plant through the transmission system to one of the many interchange grids which direct and control where the power is going to. The power is bought and sold in commodity markets by these interchange systems. Even if you live next to a power plant its output will go through the transmission system first, and then to a series of step down transformers in the distribution system before finally being delivered to the customer. Much of the time my home power was not supplied by the power plant I lived next to and worked at.
The transformers are the weak link. A severe solar storm can induce currents that will destroy them (this has happened). Safety interlocks may not work as the pulse can increase current too fast for the breaker to trip before the contacts get welded shut or else it can cause winding damage before it trips. As Andru says the extent of the damage will be the problem. None of the high tension step up/step down transformers are made in the US anymore. And the lead times for their manufacture are measured in years. I expect in such a scenario desperate measures will be taken to produce transformers (or repair them – very difficult and not possible if the damage is severe enough).
If we suffer an EMP attack plan for the power being off for years. I would suspect that power recover would be prioritized in the major metropolitan areas as that is where most people and industry are. The rural areas will probably be the last to be worked. This is standard operating procedure (SOP) for power restoration, you do what brings the most people back online first. – James J.
Mr. Rawles,
Mention was made in your blog of an article entitled, “EMP 101 – A Basic Primer” concerning the results of an EMP attack on the United States. The article was written by William R. Forstchen, the author of the novel One Second After.
I followed the link and read the article. For the most part it was very informative, especially the part about all modern airliners being “fly by wire” and controlled by computers. From my aviation background I know that the control surfaces of most large aircraft today are simply too large to be moved around by the pilot’s own strength, as they were in aircraft designs up to the 1950s. Still, it was a graphic reminder that most large aircraft today are completely dependent on their on-board computer systems to operate. There is no “manual backup”, just another spare computer system that could possibly also be damaged in an EMP incident.
But there was one section of his article discussing advance preparations to mitigate the effect of an EMP blast that I did not understand. That was the paragraph:
“An off the shelf purchase of hand held two way radios by every local police, fire, sheriff, and emergency response department in the country would mean, that if then properly stored along with a large stock pile of batteries that within minutes after an attack, a nation wide network of communications would be back up and running. This can not be emphasized enough, that proper communications and what the military calls “command and control,” will go a long step towards maintaining public order.”
I’m not quite sure what Mr. Forstchen is referring to with the term, “off the shelf purchase of hand held two way radios”? If he is referring to the commonly available Family Radio Service (FRS) and General Mobile Radio Service (GMRS) walkie-talkies that use AA and AAA batteries, then he is not aware of their severe limitations. FRS radios only have 14 UHF channels and 0.5 watts of RF output power. The GMRS radios have 22 UHF channels and typically around 2 watts of RF output power.
Both radios operate on relatively low power and on UHF frequencies, a combination that will limit their effective range to a few miles typically. At best perhaps 10-miles with the higher powered 2-watt GMRS radio (don’t believe the advertising hype on the package). The UHF frequencies do a better job of penetrating building walls, but they don’t propagate as far as VHF signals. They provide “Line of Sight” operation – if you can see the other person in the distance, you should be able to reach them on the radio.
Based upon these obvious limitations, I don’t understand where the author comes up with the statement that equipped with these consumer-grade walkie-talkies, “within minutes after an attack, a nation wide network of communications would be back up and running.” With their short range and limited channels, it is impossible to create a “nationwide network of communications”. When used from inside a vehicle, the range of the low power FRS radio can be measured in feet! Usually the range is only a few car lengths, which makes for limited convoy use. In addition, the limited number of available radio channels will ensure a pandemonium of signals and the resulting radio gridlock reminiscent of the peak of CB radio activity in the late 1970s. This is especially true when you realize that every man, woman, and child could potentially be attempting to communicate on these same channels with their personally owned FRS or GMRS radio. The public service functions will no longer be operating on radio frequencies reserved and licensed exclusively for their use.
If the author is referring to the purchase of additional two-way radios of the type already in use by police, fire, sheriff, and emergency response departments, then he is unaware of how they operate. Most “business band” or “professional” hand held radios have a RF output of 5-to7 watts. They are still limited in range by their inefficient “rubber duckie” flexible antenna, frequency band, and power output. The only reason they seem to operate so well over many miles of varied terrain is because of the supporting infrastructure, mainly the radio repeater system. The radio repeater extends the range of the low powered hand held radios by retransmitting their signal [typically] from a mountaintop repeater site. A network of repeater stations located on high terrain can vastly improve the coverage of a hand held radio, providing excellent range throughout a county or even an entire state depending on the size and extent of the repeater network.
Unfortunately, the weak link in all of the radio systems used by public service agencies is their radio repeater system. With all the repeater stations off the air due to EMP damage (or even a lightning strike) the entire radio network falls apart. Most public service radios are programmed to operate exclusively through the repeater system. If the repeater system is down, the radios no longer work. Sometimes a sheriff’s department will have their radios programmed with a “car-to-car” channel, which is a simplex frequency where the radios transmit & receive on the same frequency (without the need for a repeater radio). But these “direct” channels are very few, and are often the only simplex channel available out of a radio system with five or more radio channels. To provide adequate coverage over a large city or county, all the normally used channels are duplex frequencies going through the radio repeater system. An additional limitation is that each public service function is limited to their specific allocated and assigned radio channels. The radios are pre-programmed by a radio technician at his shop. The radios are not field programmable by the user.
In addition to this vulnerability, professional two-way radios use rechargeable battery packs – usually Nickel-Cadmium or Nickel-Metal Hydride. The sealed battery packs are designed to work with a specific model of radio. The radios do not use AA, AAA, C, or D-cell batteries. So unless there is a back room filled with chargers and a person assigned to keep all the spare batteries charged up and rotated out of the charger at all times, there is no simple approach to having charged batteries ready to go to support a stash of spare radios. In fact, most public service agencies can barely afford the minimum number of portable radios needed to equip all their personnel. There is no budget for an additional stash of spare batteries and radios.
The only radio service I know of that has the flexibility to adapt in a “repeater down” situation is the Amateur Radio Service. Instead of specific frequencies or channels, “Ham” radio operators are allocated entire radio bands to operate on. The VHF and UHF radios used in the Amateur Radio Service can be user programmed to operate on any desired frequency within a radio band, and all will switch to simplex operation at the press of a button. Manufacturers of ham radio equipment often offer an optional alkaline battery case for use with their hand held radio models. While looking like the typical Nickel-Cadmium (NiCd) battery pack from the outside, these battery cases can be opened up and AA batteries inserted into the slots. The battery case is then attached to the radio the same way as the regular NiCd battery packs do. This allows the ham radio operator to stockpile a stash of spare AA batteries for use during an extended power outage that prevents the usual recharging of the NiCd or Nickel-Metal Hydride (NiMH) battery packs.
So, unless you are a ham radio operator, expect a long delay before normal radio communications are restored. Due to the limitations and vulnerabilities of public service two-way radio networks, reestablishing a nationwide network of radio communications is going to take time. Sincerely, – Bruce C.
James:
Andru’s outlook about EMP is in part misleading. The main item that Andru got correct is that an EMP attack will be more devastating that any other attack on America. I am an engineer and have read the Critical National Infrastructures (CNI) Report and this report is based on educated opinions without large scale testing since large scale testing has not been performed due to banning of nuclear testing. Localized EMP testing generally wipes out the electronics depending on how close the EMP generator is to the electronic equipment. It is all supposition as to the amount of damage that an EMP attack will create but it is know from a nuclear weapon test in 1962 that was 800 miles from Hawaii and the EMP created damage to Hawaii even with the minor amount of [microcircuit] electronics existing at that time. Think what the damage would happen in our electronics world of today.
Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse by Jerry Emanuelson: “Although nuclear EMP was known since the earliest days of nuclear weapons testing, the magnitude of the effects of nuclear EMP were not known until a 1962 test of a thermonuclear weapon in space called the Starfish Prime test. The Starfish Prime test knocked out some of the electrical and electronic components in Hawaii, more than 800 miles away.
When the 1.44 megaton W49 thermonuclear warhead detonated at an altitude of 248.5 miles (399 km), it made no sound. There was a very brief and very bright white flash in the sky that witnesses described as being like a huge flashbulb going off in the sky. The flash could be easily seen even through the overcast sky at Kwajalein Island, about 2,000 km. to the west-southwest.
In a phenomenon unrelated to the EMP, the radiation cloud from the Starfish Prime test subsequently destroyed at least five United States satellites and one Soviet satellite. The most well-known of the satellites was Telstar I, the world’s first active communications satellite. Telstar I was launched the day after the Starfish Prime test, and it did make a dramatic demonstration of the value of active communication satellites with live trans-Atlantic television broadcasts before it orbited through radiation produced by Starfish Prime (and other subsequent nuclear tests in space). Telstar I was damaged by the radiation cloud, and failed completely a few months later.
EMP is a potentially massive, severe problem that can essentially devastate our nation. America as we know it can not survive even a moderate EMP attack. Society will collapse.
The EMP pulse flows through the air at the speed of light until it hits antennas, power lines, cabling, etc. then the pulse flows through this cabling at the speed of light into the electronic equipment and the electronics fail.
[Here is a roughly analogous event that is illustrative:] Our television cable system was struck by lighting and all electronics that were on and all electronics that were off and that were connected to the TV cable were fried. Similarly, EMP will fry any unprotected electronics. The only way to protect your electronics is to have the equipment inside an adequately grounded Faraday cage (metal box) that does not have power or cabling running into it. Your electronics that are not in use should be stored in a grounded Faraday cage everyday.
Even if repair parts for your electronics were available, how would you obtain the repair parts since there will be no mail or transportation services. If you have an auto that still runs after and EMP attack, the last thing that you will wish to do is take your vehicle out and show everyone that you have an operating vehicle.
We are acquiring extra [CPU] “brains” for our diesels and SUVs. We also are acquiring carbureted vehicles.
Even if an EMP strike only caused the death of 10% or our population (30 million citizens) just how do you survive this as a nation? Prepare for EMP and pray that it does not happen.
Analysis:
Severity of potential failures: From least to greatest [Some causative details and conjecture deleted by JWR, for brevity]
1. Swine Flu – World Wide – Population loss 1 to 10% – could trigger Item Number 3.
2. Civil War – America – Population loss of up to 40% – could trigger Item Number 3.
3. Financial Collapse – World Wide – Population loss up to 40%. Loss of 50+ years of progress. Will probably lead to nuclear war or EMP strike. No economy remains.
4. EMP Attack – America – Population loss of up to 80% – No economy remains.
5. Nuclear War – World Wide – Population loss up to 60%. No economy remains.
Regards, – TD
Dear Mr. Rawles:
I have been following several good reader contributions including “Bug Out At the Last Minute” arguments versus those who consider “Early Relocation” and most recently “A Multiple Family Retreat—Lessons Learned the Hard Way” in regards to the most expeditious and efficient way to set up a self-sufficient retreat. While I understand that some folks are just simply unable to make a full time commitment in setting up a retreat, I also know that there are many—while there are still the comforts of life available (television, readily available food and gasoline)—that are unwilling to make the sacrifice necessary to prepare for any pending manmade or natural disaster(this include members of my extended family who are living what they consider the “good life” but I am sure will be on our doorstep WTSHTF) From my family’s experience, if one is not practicing what they preach…i.e. actually learning by trial and error and doing what one plans to do when the time come, then no matter how much one has prepared—stocking food supplies, buying “Seeds in a Can”, or planning to bug out with everything but the kitchen sink—then there will most certainly be a very steep learning curve to be had. Believe me, my husband and I have made many mistakes, but because we are also willing to sacrifice, after five years have reached the level of preparedness WTSHTF! In fact, it is best to get to a prepared lifestyle so WTSHTF, such events are just a mere bump in the road for your family.
With my parents we purchased 110 acres of fertile land, with two running streams, a spring, and two ponds 100 miles away from the nearest “Metro Mess”. There are several vibrant and viable little towns within driving or even walking distance for that matter. These towns are very close knit and some would call them “clannish” because everyone seems to be related to everyone else. We bought the land 10 years ago, but starting living on it full time 5 years ago.
Most people would think this is the perfect setup. We think it is, however, please allow me the opportunity to expand on what I mean “Practicing what you preach” because our journey to where we are today did not come by just planning, but by doing.
1. The Land – Pros: Good land, sandy loam, available water. Cons: Just as the veggies like the soil, so do the weeds! If we do not pull weeds everyday, they seem to come back double within the week. Additionally, despite all the attractive pictures on the veggie packets and promises that they will grow, I have learned what will grow in my particular location and what will not grow. Although we live in zone 7, in my particular location it is not uncommon to have a late hard killing freeze the end of April. I still have fruit trees, but lost all of the fruit this year. I also know what types of vegetables will grow and which ones will not. This was not learned by planning to do it in the future when it is necessary, but over a trial and error five-year period. Is this a process that one wants to learn when one really needs it, or instead by practicing what you intend to do, so that you are up to speed when the time comes as disaster strikes? It means having on hand all the tools and supplies needed, and this was only learned by doing before hand.
2. The Livestock – Pros: A ready food source or beasts of burden. Cons: They are reliant on you for their well being. Chickens get eaten by varmints or neighbors dogs if one is not careful, animals need daily care—whether from you, or someone else if you are away for a time—they get sick and hurt, get into a neighbor’s pasture, etc. If you plan to eat chickens for example, then you must learn how to kill them and dress them properly. Believe me, all these things are not something one needs to learn when it is truly necessary, but is only learned by doing before hand.
3. The Farmstead and accompanying equipment—Pros: This goes without saying. Cons: If one is not a handyman, or DIY, then learn anyway you can! Metal roofs blow off, water well pumps stop working, trees fall on things that they are not supposed to, wild fires and floods, etc. It is just not a matter of “Calling someone” to fix these things because out in rural areas, it is assumed that everyone knows how to take care of these things. One can only know what tools they will need for their particular situation by practicing and experimenting—remember an electric dehydrator for preserving food, or a wide screen tv will not be useful when there is no electricity. Our family got rid of cable/satellite tv (no time to watch it other than a rental movie every once in a while) but, we still have satellite Internet service—the best source for alternative news like SurvivalBlog. I am learning to can with a pressure cooker and preserve food that we grow. All these things are learned by doing.
4. The Job—My husband and I both had jobs in the city when we bought our land. Before we moved from the Metro Mess, we scaled back and paid off as much debt as possible, and saved as much as possible. When we finally moved to our land we commuted to our jobs for three years, 1,000 miles a week. That meant going to bed promptly at 9 p.m. in order to get up at 3:30 to feed the animals and be on the road by 5 a.m. for our 200 mile round-trip trek. My husband retired to work on the farm full time, and as soon as I was able, I found a teaching job in one of the small towns. I taught for two years in this position, but now our homestead is able to generate enough income, plus what we have saved, for me to resign my teaching position. Is this difficult to do? Yes, it takes sacrifice and ignoring the naysayers who may think that you are a little crazy. But again, sacrifice is only gained by doing.
5. The Local People—The only way to get to know the locals is by living amongst them. I do not mean this in a negative way by any means. I have heard many other new homesteaders complain that the locals are tough nuts to crack, and in our situation, everyone is related to everyone else, so of course there is some suspicion to any newcomer. However, the only way that you can become a successful member of a community is by doing and being there. Of course expect hostility WTSHTF and you just “show up” We became part of the community by worshiping at the local church, teaching Sunday school, joining civil organizations, enrolling our children in the schools, etc. When a church member broke his back in a fall, we were there helping his wife with the farm chores. When a massive wild fire rolled through the area this spring, we were there helping evacuate horses. Of course they will talk about you…this is just a fact of life in a small town…however, the church was full when my brother—who nobody knew because he lived out of state—died and was buried in the church cemetery…all of our friends who had become our family were there for US. This did not happen overnight, but by the nurturing relationships and sacrifice…turn off the boob tube and get to know your neighbors. Also, it is through the locals that we know how to butcher and garden, as well as get things like milk and grains. I can also defend myself and our property because a retired police officer gave us the proper training. We have a pretty good barter system going, and again, this did not happen by planning, but by doing.
Now, as I stated earlier, I know that there are many people out there that do not have a choice, and are doing the best that they can to prepare and I pray for you. However, I also know that there are just as many people who are unwilling to work hard and sacrifice so when the time comes, they will be scrambling to get themselves in a better plan, and with possible dire results. Please, if at all possible, try to get to your ultimate retreat before you really need it. Learn not by planning, but by doing and Practicing What You Preach! God Bless, – SHM
Global Swine Flu Deaths Top 700 “Margaret Chan, WHO director-general, has warned that swine flu will become the biggest flu pandemic ever seen.”
Safety of Swine Flu Vaccine to Face Tough Scrutiny
Swine Flu Brits to be Quarantined
Little Girl 8th Swine Flu Victim in Columbia
CBS 60 Minutes: 1976 Swine Flu: 300 Deaths From Vax, One Death From Flu
Airlines To Ban Suspected Swine Flu Victims. Gee, that’s a timely move!
First Vaccine for Foiling Swine to be Tested -The first human trials of a swine- flu vaccine are set to begin in Australia as deaths and infections from the H1N1 virus mount worldwide, intensifying demand for a protective shot.
WHO: Schools Can Opt to Close; Death Toll at 700
Doctors Warn of Swine Flu Vaccine for Vulnerable Patients
Pregnant Women Should Stay Home this Fall
UK: Shops Selling Out of Thermometers Because of Swine Flu
Questions Out There as World Readies for Swine Flu Vaccination
A Whole Industry is Waiting for a Pandemic
Flu Vaccine Scramble Could Get Ugly
I recently bookmarked the Total Investor blog. It is has become my favorite aggregation sites for economic and investing news. Yesterday, they featured a video clip: Marc Faber On CNBC: “Marc Faber is expecting an ‘ultimate crisis’ that will ‘clean the system. ‘If you pump money into the system and you create large fiscal deficits, you create volatility,’ Faber said'”
Items from The Economatrix:
Making Sense of Second Quarter Earnings, So Far “As you can see, a consumer retrenchment is happening here. And in my opinion, that is an even bigger story than the individual earnings reports or big profits from Wall Street firms. It’s going to dictate how quickly (or slowly) our economy turns around, and it has major implications for all the stocks in your portfolio.”
Low-Priced Foreclosures Incite Bidding Wars
DC Doesn’t Feel the Pinch of the Recession
Tight Budget? Send Kids to Camp Granny
Bernanke Sees “Tentative Signs” Economy Is Stabilizing, Says Rates Will Stay Low Tentative, unsure; uncertain; not definite or positive; hesitant. Synonyms: doubtful, probationary, provisional .
CIT Expects $1.5 Billion Loss, May Seek Bankruptcy if Debt Swap Fails
Short-Term Municipal Debt Market is Showing Strains, Fed Says
Fiscal Ruin of The Western World Beckons, a Bigger Financial Crisis Brewing (John Mauldin)
Seven Myths About Gold Debunked, Bubble Bursting Warning Target $600?
Bob Chapman: Goldman Sachs Raking in Massive Profits, Market Review
Schoon: Goldman Sachs–A Vampire on the Jugular of America “The US claims the US Treasury still holds approximately 7,000-8,000 tons of gold but has not allowed a public audit of its reserves since 1954; and since 1999 the UK and Swiss have seen their gold reserves decimated as bankers freely sold their gold in order to cap the rise in the price of gold to keep the banker’s paper money scheme intact. This is perhaps the last opportunity for private investors to purchase gold when it is being diverted from public treasuries in order to keep gold prices artificially low. These publicly subsidized prices will not be available forever; for when the banker’s Ponzi-scheme of paper money collapses, gold will never again be this cheap.”
Reader KAF wrote: “I was most interested and thankful for the recipes in the articles discussing making your own laundry detergent. I also could not find the ingredient Washing Soda. After some searching, I discovered that it is Sodium Carbonate (aka Soda Ash). Here is a bulk supplier for the powder. They also sell Borax (aka Sodium Borate). I’ve ordered some and I can’t wait to try my hand at this lab experiment!
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Blacksheep sent this: Amazon Erases Orwell Books From Kindle. OBTW, let me know if your Kindle edition of “Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse“
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Mycroft mentioned that the show Survival School is available on Hulu.com. Here is a description: “Dehydration. Exhaustion. Starvation. Welcome to The Air Force S.E.R.E. program, one of the toughest training programs the U.S. military has to offer. Out of 500 potential applicants, only 47 Airmen actually get admitted to the program, and almost half of them won’t make the cut. These brave Airmen are about to embark on the toughest challenge they will ever face. They will learn some harsh lessons, push themselves to their limit and use their surroundings, all to help them be better Airmen and become masters of survival.”
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Some good news: The chronic shortage of ammunition and full capacity magazines seems to be abating. I just noticed that 44Mag.com now has both CMI mil-spec M14 magazines and DPMS AR-10 magazines back in stock. I strongly recommend buying what you need for each of your guns (and planned gun purchases) as soon as supplies become available. Quality magazines are a great hedge on inflation.
“Liberty is never unalienable; it must be redeemed regularly with the blood of patriots or it always vanishes. Of all the so-called natural human rights that have ever been invented, liberty is the least to be cheap and is never free of cost.” – Robert A. Heinlein, Starship Troopers
A segment on the Today US network television show on Tuesday morning featured SurvivalBlog regular Kathy Harrison (the author of the excellent preparedness primer Just in Case
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Just one week left! Ready Made Resources is continuing their special 25% off sale on case lots of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, with free shipping to the Continental United States. Please don’t miss out on this sale, as they don’t happen very often. Place your order soon, since the sale ends next Wednesday.
I am sitting here and it is raining, and raining and raining and… Four inches so far, nobody can water like God can! After our last rain, everything in the garden had a tremendous burst of energy. The dreary, raining day for some folks though, is especially depressing. I enjoy those occasional days, when I feel like I can actually sit down at the computer without feeling guilty because there is so much to do outside that I really shouldn’t be here.
It got me to thinking again about “what if?” How can we defeat those occasional bouts of dreariness, especially if and when TEOTWAWKI comes along? Making sure every ones attitudes stay uplifted might be one of those things that make living in a very, very hard time a little more bearable.
You’ve always heard the saying, “if momma ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.” Well, momma, start with yourself first. Make sure your priorities are straight, your head, your body (I’m especially in need of that), your spiritual life, and your relationships are in great shape. Remember, you and your family are a team. It is going to be you and them against the world. Ya’ll will possibly be the only ones you engage with for a while. Your relationships to each other is of vital importance. Pick your battles, which is something I have to be very conscious of. Make sure everyone in the family knows how vital their contribution is. Even if it is just the little ones trained well enough to know how to mind and do their chores. It will save a lot of added frustration especially if things are in really bad shape.
Make sure you have something that is special to you stored back–I know this may sound irrelevant and maybe even a little selfish, but just a small bottle of perfume, or a little lipstick, after you come in from a long, hot, sweaty day in the garden, to clean up and smell and look pretty, will give you (and him) a nice, uplifting feeling. You are the heart of the home, make it a place that gives your family a feeling of warmth and welcome when they are there. Grow a few hardy flowers that like hot weather and do well without much rain. We never know from year to year how much rain we will get. Cut them and put them on the table. Save your dish water to pour on them if the weather is dry. It will lift everyone’s spirits to come to the table with a nice tablecloth and flowers. Your conversation makes a difference, too. Talk about memories, funny stories, you might even start writing them down so you won’t forget them when they happen. You will be the one who makes a vital difference in attitudes, and this is true even when things are normal. Make plans for birthdays or other special days. Birthday candles do not take up much space and cost very little , they are a very important part of birthdays, especially the little [single digit] ones. Folks like me have to have permission from the Fire Department! You know what is important to your family as far as holidays and families times. Prepare for those special times.
What about things to do [at quiet times]? My husband loves puzzles. I will have some puzzle books put back. My daughter is like me: she loves art. If you have a child who loves to draw, make sure you have some art supplies on hand. A reader? G.A. Henty
Games are a great family time and some of them are just for fun, some help learning skills. Whatever your family enjoys and make sure you have a few for all ages. You need those old fashioned ones, because the computer may not be working. We have made our own games. We’ve dug some small holes in the ground and found some old washers and used them similarly to horseshoes. Since we home schooled, geography was taught by buying plastic posters of the continents. Each person would have a different place and we would ask about rivers, mountain ranges, countries, anything that was on the map could be formed into a question. Charades, an old game is great if you have visitors. Music is wonderful. Maybe you have a musician in your family. Sing together. It makes a light-hearted atmosphere and gets everyone away from all the talk about news and what is going on. There are web sites on line that can give you many more ideas, and now would be the time to prepare.
If you have folks who like to sew, knit, crochet, woodwork make sure they have a few items that could give them some time to be creative. All work and no play makes a really bad attitude. It is a good way to make gifts as holidays and birthdays come along. Make your own cards and stick one on a bed or on the mirror to tell your family how much you appreciate their hard work and their good attitude. A little praise goes a long way.
Preparing for fun and relaxation is as important as preparing for physical needs. Fear and bitterness are some of the worse life threatening things that will bring the whole household down. Having a lot of time on your hands, gives time to think about what I don’t have, or what I’m missing. Just adding some of the fun items will keep your family occupied in good, clean, happy, useful business.
Don’t forget rest~satisfying rest. When you are overworked, tired, hungry and worried your responses to folks can be well, not nice. That can lead to arguments and a lack of teamwork. Making sure everyone gets a restoring night’s sleep will help get them ready for another day of taking care of business. Don’t forget to say your prayers. God has got you through another day.
Your relationship with God, knowing that you belong to Him and that your family does, is the first thing you need to have total faith in. Know that although you have prepared to the best of your abilities, that nothing happens to us that does not pass through God’s “hands” first. You must know that what He allows in our lives, He has either caused, or will use for our good and His Glory.
These are just a few ideas. There is so much information on the web now, that finding other ideas are only a mouse click away. Make a notebook and keep ideas in it. If you do not have the time right now to get things together, with the notebook you won’t forget about them. This might be good for the kids to do.
Depression is a killer, of the spirit and sometimes of lives. Just a little joy in hard times makes things go so much easier. When you can laugh during adversity, it might make a difference in getting your life back to normal. “A merry heart doeth good, like a medicine.” So remember while you’re storing up the beans, rice, tools and ammo, don’t forget to store up some joy. – Carla
Hello Mr. Rawles,
Thank you for taking the time to reply to my previous e-mail. I must confess your original post on your blog and your reply left me feeling somewhat bothered and a little defensive. I have been mulling this over all day and deep down I know the reason why, it’s because you are absolutely 100% right.
My wife who makes my world go round could not leave her family, my son who has special needs is receiving very specialist care locally, my community, friends and neighbours who have worked this land for generations rely on me for support and will come to rely on my specialist skills come TEOTWAWKI. This is the hand of cards I have been dealt, idealistic young fool I may be, but I cannot abandon my family, friends and country.
There may be a die-off, there may be wars, unspeakable hardships and suffering but I have to do the best I can for all my people and for the sake of our country,a country that may be currently on the skids but it is still a country that generations of our fathers, brothers and sons have fought and toiled for.
I could be just as easily shot and killed as an outsider in New Zealand, Belize, or Idaho come TEOTWAWKI, if I am going to meet my maker I would rather do it with the respect of myself and my loved ones, knowing that I did not abandon them in their hour of need.
Keep up the good work Mr. Rawles, I will continue to read and enjoy your blog. – Handyman
Sir,
Having been an avid reader of your superb blog from the very beginning, I would like to thank you and all the contributors for an invaluable resource. It’s my computer’s homepage and is the first thing read every day.
Your forecast for the probable scenario post-TEOTWAWKI, or even mini-TEOTWAWKI seems pretty accurate, although the population figure you give [for England] is out-of-date. As of mid-2007 we were at almost 61,000,000 and counting. Soon to be standing room only, it seems. [JWR Adds: Just to clarify, the population of all of the UK was 61 million in 2007. Wikipedia says 51 million is the correct figure for just England.]
So I was right with the 51 million figure. The only good news is that if you consider Scotland, the population density for the entirety of the UK is much lower. Not that Scotland has the most agreeable climate. I’ll update that letter accordingly.
Despite living in as near to the middle of nowhere as is possible in these crowded isles, my family and I have been planning our G.O.O.D. from the UK for some time. I’m happy to say that the new place [in the Mediterranean region] is now up and running and we are spending 50% of our time there, (soon to be 100%).
Some things we learned during our relocation exercise:
· It seems, if the television programmes on the subject are to be believed, that some people, after a two-week trip to some exotic location, decide on the spur of the moment to move there – and do just that. Maybe it’s just me, but I think that falls under the ‘failing to plan is planning to fail’ caveat, aka the ‘P7’ rule. Please, please, please, think it through and do your research.
· Where ever you may roam, you take yourself there. Sit yourselves down and think deeply about what you want to do, where you want to go, what you want when you get there, and what you will need to make it happen. If you are running away from something, don’t be surprised if you find it at the end of your journey, sat waiting for you. Running towards something on the other hand..
· I cannot stress this enough: Do your homework. This applies if you are relocating to the next county or the other side of the world. Do not be seduced by picturesque views and/or sales talk. One of the nicest locations we saw on a previous move has appeared on national (UK) television many times; sadly, due to its propensity to flooding several times a year. Fortunately we had looked into it and bought higher ground, elsewhere. The Internet is your friend here, but does not remove the need for feet on the ground and genuine field research.
· Once you’ve identified your chosen location, do yet more research and find the right spot. I will not preach to the choir about the need for fertile soil, water, politics, etc, but would say, as we found to our cost, that sometimes people can be mistaken in their beliefs, if not downright economical with the truth. Check your information, then check it again. It cost us in the region of 5,000 Euros and counting for failing to check an item.
· Allow a realistic timescale for your move. Our (hopefully) ultimate G.O.O.D. exercise involved a change of country, for which we had allowed five years to achieve. It’s going on seven now and whilst installed, we are still commuting internationally and hoping not to get caught up in the Swine Flu snafu whilst in transit. It’s not all been bad news though, the delay has allowed time to improve language skills and inventory, and my good lady has developed a fearsomely accurate eye with her new Benelli. (Sadly, Messrs. Mossberg & Remington are hard to come by out at our location, but the Italian job is a nice, if expensive alternative). It is also pleasing to know that ownership of same does not make one automatically suspect in the eyes of the law or the local politically correct set (whom, I am glad to report, have not found their way here yet).
· Be aware, be very aware that even a short move can result in you finding yourself in a much different culture. This is as true of village/small-town life as it is if you change countries. Be prepared for things being done differently. Many countries prefer the mañana philosophy to the Protestant Work Ethic and this can be incredibly frustrating for some. I personally know of several wannabe ‘GOODers’ who have given up in sight of the finish line due to their inability or unwillingness to adapt to local conditions. If you cannot or will not adapt, then please, stay where you are. (I appreciate this sentiment doesn’t generally apply to ‘our type’ of folk, but if you prefer to be dreamer, save yourself a lot of hassle and money, just don’t..). Similarly, many of these out of the way locations reputedly use the ‘small brown envelope’ method of getting things done. I cannot of course possibly comment on this, but YMMV.
· Render unto Caesar.. This probably should go under the ‘culture’ paragraph, but I think it’s worthy of its own piece. You might not fully understand local bureaucracy – indeed if in a foreign country, with a different language, you probably never will, but it is no excuse in the eyes of the law. If nothing else, find out how, when and where to pay your taxes – and make sure you do. I am told the impound lot for our location is literally full to overflowing with foreign vehicles because owners neglected to pay local taxes on them. (And this is a small, rural location). Remember, the nail that stands out gets hammered down and one presumes under the current financial conditions that this can only get worse. It’s bad enough to lose your pick-up, but your home?
So far, the move has proven the right thing to do. We are totally off-grid and re-learning the joys of septics, generators and, until the well is bored, tanked water.
High on the list is a solar PV set up. We could have held off moving till this was installed, but decided that being there was the number one priority. Given the climate, electricity is not a priority here in the summer, except perhaps for ice and the winters are typically much milder than the UK, so we feel our genset will more than suffice for the time being.
Getting used to the new way of life is fun and challenging at the same time. One thing we have found, is that working full-time in the summer sun of the southern Mediterranean is very different than sitting on a sunbed sipping a beer! Perhaps the man who invented the siesta was not so crazy after all.
In conclusion, if you do decide to take the gap, be aware that it’s not something to do lightly, but it can be done and is more than worth the effort. – Michael
Jim,
As the only military-experienced “beans, bullets and band aids”-type survivalist who shows up at the local weekly Peak Oil meetings, I can say there’s a lot of Transition Town stuff going on. It spun-off from Post-Peak Oil groups.
I made the effort to avoid all the Transition Town stuff a long time ago. It mostly consists of retirement age hippies-turned-yuppies-turned-retirees, trying to be do-gooders. I’m just a fellow Army intel guy who’s done his own extensive research with regards to Peak Oil (to include fusion between various sources, researchers, etc.), and have been prepping accordingly. After all, we did hit the global peak in liquid fuels extraction in June, 2008. Judging from the shape of this peak mathematically, in addition to the plateau we’ve been at (there have been a lot of head-fakes since 2005), along with the continuing depletion rates of the current 54 oil fields around the planet that are now in decline (source: TheOilDrum.com), this one looks for real (some are politically intentional slow-downs in production, I have to admit).
I’ve noticed that all the transition town types have no preps to speak of, and are clueless about preparedness in general, and “don’t believe in survivalism”.
“We’re all going to sing kumbaya in our little communities (which only exist in their minds, BTW) and grow cute little green things, but we’re not going to store anything” (one of them even had the audacity to ask me about getting a firearm. Again, I mainly hooked-up with Post-Peak Oil in order to learn how to grow food organically, and have learned a lot, and made some good friends). I have to admit though, that the movement has been growing in the US.
There’s a certain British Transition Town expert who has been assisting Post-Peak Oil in this area, and I’ve asked him specifically, “Does Totnes actually feed itself?” Does Totnes generate its own electrical power?” I’ve never gotten a straight answer from him, just “well, kind of, sort of, not yet…”
Then what exactly is a Transition town? I’m going to be making sure my friends from Post-Peak Oil get your post.
Keep-up the good work. My wife was part of Book Bomb Day, back in April: One copy for me, one for her father: An old, Mel Tappan type, who had not even previously known about SurvivalBlog. – J.E.
Hello From Ireland,
My wife and I were delighted to see the article on England and your advise to leave for more lightly populated areas of the globe.
Things in England might be bad but here in Ireland things are worse. The economy is in tatters, taxes are being raised, people are advised to avoid getting pregnant because of swine flu. There are talks of keeping schools closed after the summer holidays to avoid the spread of the swine flu so that a vaccine program can be administered, even though we all know there isn’t a vaccine available yet. The
unemployment rate is 12% and our brilliant Government inform us it will go to 20%.
The population density is 180/sq mile, knife and gun laws are unbelievable ( I have been waiting six months for a license for a .22 rifle even though I have no criminal record and served three years in the Reserve Defence Force performing security details several times at a major airport with a weapon loaded with live ammunition) sad to say it is possible to get a gun illegally within 24 hours. Pistols are now illegal, because the drug gangs were shooting each other with pistols, despite the fact that no one was ever killed with a legally held pistol. The gang crime here is at level comparable to what was seen in [cities in] the USA in the 1970s. Our Police are retiring at a rate of 45 per month (the maximum size of the force was 12,000) and because of the recession they are not being replaced with recruits, and best of all a Government report advises the closure of half of the country’s Police Stations.
My American Wife and myself (Irish) are making plans to get the hell out of Dodge we are looking at Northern Scandinavia as the best option for a place to escape before it all goes very bad here. There are several other Irish people who think the same as ourselves and are making their own escape plans. We would welcome your comments on our choice of location. – INNUKSUK Survival, County Limerick, Ireland.
Jim,
Although I very much agree that UK residents should, if possible, move overseas, I nonetheless believe that due to financial, residency requirements and other reasons, not everyone will be able to leave the UK to relocate in America, NZ or elsewhere. For those people, there remains the option of what I believe is one of the best retreat locations within the European Union: north of the Great Glen in Scotland. Specifically, I view the lower lying (farmable) terrain along the west coast and islands as being best suited to this purpose.
The benefits are, from my various sorties to study the region:
1. One of lowest population densities in western Europe.
2. Both distance (by UK standards!) and formidable mountainous barriers between the region and the large urban centers of Glasgow, Edinburgh and the east coast. Its isolation reduces its allure as a target for roaming urbanite gangs, a point even more applicable to the likes of [The Isle of] Skye which, during the days of the conflicts between the Lords of the Isles and the Stewarts, was so shielded by the Highlands wilderness that the king had to send his fleet from the east coast around the north of Scotland to attack them by sea. Even on the Great Britain mainland, the Knoydart region has no road access from the rest of Scotland; it can only be reached by 2 day hike or by sea. Something to bear in mind in a modern grid down scenario.
3. A largely conservative indigenous population, quietly distrustful of modern ways.
4. There are numerous small semi self-reliant communities dotted throughout the region, many of which are used to taking in idealist outsiders seeking refuge from the madding crowds.
5. Whereas the interior of the Highlands can have very severe winters with prolonged periods of heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures, the lower portions of the west coast are relieved by mild Atlantic currents providing a lenient maritime microclimate.
6. A hunting and outdoors culture. There are so many red deer in the region now that some locals are calling for the wolf to be reintroduced to reduce their numbers.
On the down side:
1. Isolation comes at a price; in good weather, it can take the best part of two hours to get to Inverness or Fort William from the west coast or [from the Isle of] Skye. In winter, you may have to wait longer until a storm ends or a snow plow comes along. Bad news if you need urgent medical treatment which, for now, can be circumvented by emergency helicopter missions undertaken by the military.
2. Strict Reformed Christians, who are considerable in number in the region, frown upon many activities that outsiders take for granted; for instance, their observance of the Sunday Sabbath in some cases compels them to pull a chair from the table rather than push it away, as the former mode is seen as less like work than the latter. So digging your garden or hanging clothes on a line on a Sunday would be a good way to alienate them. On the other hand, their lax attitude towards alcohol consumption will surprise teetotaling Christians from outside.
3. There is an undercurrent of lingering resentment towards the English who are still blamed for the infamous Highland Clearances. There is perhaps an outside chance of the odd Englishman becoming the local “expendable gringo” come TEOTWAWKI.
4. The quality of the soil is generally not great, although it is nonetheless possible with assistance from compost to grow a considerable amount of vegetables. Sturdy stock fencing is a must, due to the deer menace. Also, I am told that eagles account for high losses in spring lambs.
5. Self sufficient farming comes under a lot of petty scrutiny from over eager bureaucrats; for instance, it is illegal to help someone else butcher livestock on their holding; you can only do it to your own cattle on your own land.
6. And of course, like the rest of the UK, gun ownership is insanely regulated.
7. Scottish law and conveyancing practices are alien to those in the rest of the UK. Also, property prices tend to be very high, as are property taxes. I know someone who left the Highland to live in France because he couldn’t bear the property taxes.
8. Summertime sees the area swamped with hillwalkers and tourists from all over Europe, many of whom are drawn to the quaint coastal communities and who may note ongoing self-sufficiency preparations for later reference.
Overall then, it’s very far from perfect but nevertheless presents perhaps an emergency, last minute kind of option for those who don’t think they have the wherewithal to make a bigger jump.
Finally, [for an illustration of the high population density,] see the photos of Europe from space at night. Kind regards, – Jay W.
Mr. Rawles,
Greetings from England. Having read “Patriots” from cover to cover many times and long been a devotee of your blog I do regard you as being one of the foremost experts in the world of preparation for TEOTWAWKI situations. However, I do have some queries with some points on your recent article regarding a SHTF situation in England.
While I appreciate that for some people it is the best option to emigrate, what practical advice would you have for people who emigration would not be possible? We are part of a well armed (many shotguns, Deer stalking rifles, .22 LRs, crossbows, compound bows etc.) rural community, that even with our climate produces more food than we could ever eat, in a defendable location, many locals are ex-military and our population is sufficient that there could be workers and soldiers.
Regarding moving abroad, Is not one of the golden rules of survival not to become a refugee or an outsider? It can take a long time to fully integrate into a community and be accepted, I believe that the threat of TEOTWAWKI is upon us now and in many places we would be regarded as “outsiders” or “foreigners”. Belize was one of the options you put forward as a possible place to emigrate to, having worked for 18 months all over Belize I know enough about the people, the crime level, the corruption and the various factions to know that maybe that is not the best idea in the world. In a SHTF scenario there is not enough British troops there to protect it’s interests and Belize is quite low down on the British Governments list of priorities.
Your advice and thoughts would be appreciated. – Handyman
JWR Replies: Your town might be the exception to the rule. One key question: How many miles from a major city is your town, and is it on a major highway? Or is it “off the beaten track” , away from refugee lines of drift? That could make a crucial difference in whether or not your town would be overwhelmed by refugees in a societal collapse.
Another consideration is counting the roads into the town. If you are fortunate, the geography will be favorable, limiting the avenues of approach. But in open farming country, there are usually numerous access roads. In a worst case scenario, how many roadblocks would have to be manned? Think through the number of defenders that would be required to maintain 24/7/360 security.
I only mentioned “…or perhaps Belize” for folks that already have friends or relatives that live there, and that you preferably already speak Spanish. Granted, you’d be considered an outsider, but Belize still has a very class-conscious society. Because of this, land owners–regardless of their origin–are generally held in esteem. I’d be more worried about criminals crossing the porous border with Guatemala, than about your next door neighbors.
GG sent this article by Henry Blodget: Gary Shilling: Stock Market Will Crash as US Consumers Retrench
Reader HPD sent a link to a recent post by Mish Shedlock: 500,000 Will Exhaust Unemployment Benefits by September, 1.5 Million by Year-end
Desert T flagged this: As Boom Times Sour in Vegas, Upward Mobility Goes Bust
Summers urges Banks to Lend Mores, Says Recovery Pace ‘in doubt.‘
Americans Pay Back Debts Most Since ’52 as Jobless Spur Savings
More bodies go unclaimed as families can’t afford funeral costs. (First family pets, now family members)
DD Sent these three items:
Subprime brokers mutate into loan fixers
Tough Times for Dairymen
Why the economy won’t recover soon
Items from The Economatrix:
USPS May be Unable to Make Payroll in October and Retiree Health Plan Costs, Union Says
White House Putting Off Release of Budget Update The 2009 Deficit is $2 Trillion–Four times that of 2008!
As Economy Bites, White House Delays Budget Review
Faber: Next Stimulus Will Be Worse
Imminent Erosion of US Dollar Seawall
Rogers: America Bordering on Communism “Let’s be honest about what this is: an attempt to hide a record-breaking deficit”
Cost of Bailout to US: $24 Trillion Maximum exposure could be $80,000 for every American
Examples of How Tax Increases Could Hit the Rich
US Commerce Chief Worried About Firms’ Liquidity “Could cause small, medium manufacturers to go out of business.”
Economic Indicators Up More than Expected in June “We’re now getting data which points to stabilization,” said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR Inc. “The overall signal they’re sending is the slide in economic activity is poised to end. The jury is still very much out in terms of what happens after that.”
United Airlines Set to Cause Financial Turbulence “Looks to raise ticket prices for thousands of fliers” and “stop taking credit cards for travel from certain travel agencies.”
