"How strangely will the Tools of a Tyrant pervert the plain Meaning of Words!" – Samuel Adams
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H1N1 Influenza: A Cytokine Storm Conclusion, But Still More Questions Than Answers
The good news on H1N1 (commonly called Swine Flu) is that in current strains the death rate appears to be as low as 1 in 2,000 infections, at least in First World countries with modern hospital facilities. The bad news is that at least 60% of world’s population is expect to contract the bug, and that further mutations are probable.
The Mutation Question
Mutations to less virulent strains are the historic norm for viruses but there is the risk of one that is very deadly. (To explain: in the grand scheme of things, a mutation with high lethality is is not good for a virus. Some, like Marburg and Ebola, have had strains that were so deadly that the hosts didn’t live long enough to pass it along to a large number of new carriers. The most successful viruses are the ones that propagate well, but do not kill too many of their hosts.) We can surmise that the absolute “worst case” for H1N1 is that a much more lethal strain emerges, to be followed by a global infection, and a large-scale die-off. But again, that is the less likely outcome.
The Cytokine Storm Question
Up until recently, I agreed with SurvivalBlog reader “L. Jean” in England who in an e-mail last week noted that we were “still waiting to find out if it’s a cytokine storm that kills or not.” This is a determining factor whether young, healthy folks should try to boost their immune response, or whether that might make matters worse. Based on the latest literature, I believe that it is now safe to say that with H1N1 a cytokine over-reaction is indeed a substantial risk, and could be a bigger killer than the virus itself. So my updated advice is to continue to store immunity boosters, but not use them to treat H1N1 unless you are Imuno-suppressed. Otherwise healthy patients in ages between 18 and 50 should refrain from doing so. I have updated my article on influenza pandemics, accordingly.
The Immunization Question
There is a vaccine for H1N1 in development, but it has been put on a radically fast track for development and trials. This has raised concerns about contamination and efficacy. Since the strain chosen for the immunization is both a “snapshot” and a “best guess” about what strain will be circulating next winter in the northern hemisphere, and there will only be limited animal testing to rule out pathogenicity. So there are some critics that argue that the vaccine might pose more of risk than the flu itself. It is also noteworthy that the vaccination program will require multiple injections for each patient. In my opinion, it is not yet clear whether the risks will outweigh the benefits. For some of my readers this won’t be a matter of choice. Both Canada and the UK have announced their intent to implement universal inoculation programs.
The Madagascar Question
In the well-known computer game Pandemic II, the president of the island nation of Madagascar is quick to isolate the country to prevent the advent of a pandemic. This has become a standing joke among gamers, and the term “Madagascar” has migrated into the epidemiology community. “Going Madagascar” is essentially slamming the doors shut, in the hopes of avoiding infection. (BTW, I know of at least two survival retreat groups that use “Madagascar” as their activation codeword, a-la the novel Alas, Babylon .) As I noted previously, the “worst case” for any virus is that a very lethal strain emerges, and rapidly spreads globally, as depicted in the novel (and television series) Survivors by Terry Nation. The spread of H1N1 via modern jet air travel illustrated just how quickly this could happen. H1N1 has already spread throughout the United States. So I stand by my oft-quoted advice: In such an event you need to be ready and able to isolate your family for an extended period of time. Essentially, you would declare your homestead a mini-Madagascar and “button up” to wait for the virus to burn itself out. (BTW, I briefly describe the logistics of this in my article “Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic.”) It is obviously too late and inappropriate to take extreme measures to isolate yourself from the current strain of H1N1, but we must remain vigilant for any new viral threats. The ability to “go Madagascar” is just one more reason to a have a deep larder!
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Letter Re: Recent Experience with an N95 Protective Mask
Dear Mr. Rawles-
I am writing to tell other Survival Blog readers about a recent experience I had with an N95 mask (with no exhalation port.) My husband and I just bought a 30 year old single wide trailer with 30 years worth of dust, mold, and cat hair. After day of being in the trailer I could feel my allergies start to grow worse by the minute. To clean up the dust, cat hair, and other allergens we went to the local hardware store and rented a Rug Doctor to shampoo the carpets. While shampooing the carpets (which was a bit labor intensive) I wore an N95 mask and let me tell ya’ it was an experience. After 30 minutes I felt like I was breathing in thick jungle air. After one hour I felt like I was going to pass out. After two hours I began to feel claustrophobic. If there are readers out there who think they are going to throw on an N95 mask when the swine flu hits their area and run from room to room while caring for sick and dying relatives/friends they better think again. My suggestion is to put on an N95 mask this afternoon, mow the lawn, rake some leaves, take the dog for a brisk walk and see how you feel afterwards. Having survival gear is great but if you have no real world experience with it then it’s useless. Know your personal limitations and the limitations of your gear. God bless!
More prepped than ever for the swine flu, – Heather
JWR Replies: In my experience, it takes time to acclimate to wearing a respirator mask. There is no substitute for hours in a mask. Particularly for a full-face military mask, and even more so for a full MOPP suit, limited field of vision, dehydration, claustrophobia and sensory deprivation are well-known effects, but heat build-up up is also an issue, particularly in summer weather. In full-face masks, being deprived of prescription lenses is also an issue, unless you have a prescription lens inserts. (BTW, these hard-to-find inserts are available from JRH Enterprises.) Also be particularly wary of dehydration. Even with masks that include a drinking tube, most wearers have a tendency to drink less than usual.
The bottom line: Practice wearing a mask regularly, in a variety of activities.
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Letter Re: Water Storage and Filtration Preparedness Pays Off
Mr. Rawles;
Well, it happened without warning. Loud knocking on the door, insistent, and then again. A man from the local water utility was there, telling us late in the morning that we had a broken underground pipe that is flooding the neighborhood, and he is now cutting off our water supply.
We immediately called our plumber who arrived a couple of hours later with a crew to dig the big hole. The story, though, is how we felt with the water cut off: “Just fine, thank you.”
Our preparations include:
1. Bottled water: 42 one-liter bottles, 75 half-liter bottles
2. 22 one-gallon and larger glass and plastic jugs filled with water and bleach drops added (glass sangria jugs with handles are the best)
3. Portable Katadyn water purification system
4. 30 water purification tablets
5. Family size water filtration system
6. 2 full rain barrels
7. 3 gallons plain bleach
8. 30,000 gallon in-ground swimming pool
9. Several cases of baby wipes
10. Many hand sanitizer dispensers
Naturally, the above consumables get rotated and replaced as needed. I’m not mentioning all the soda, juice, powdered drink mixes because those are extras.
I will mention that I grabbed one of those huge empty pickle jars, filled it with swimming pool water, placed it in the bathroom to use for flushing as instructed by a SurvivalBlog reader a few months ago. Thank you for this knowledge.
We had already made the two wash and rinse buckets with brand new plungers for washing clothes without electricity, as directed by another SurvivalBlog reader. What a great idea. We have a couple of old washboards, but the bucket idea is superior.
I now just need to get the hand wringer from Lehman’s. In addition, another minor purchase will be one of those portable solar camping showers for bathing.
We weren’t expecting this event, but it provided a nice dry run practice and had us thinking. We were without water for only a few hours, so the inconvenience was minimal. However, I can’t begin to express the total calm and assurance that came from knowing that having the water cut off was really a non-event in our lives and that we were ready.
Many thanks to all the SurvivalBlog contributors who share so freely and to Jim for hosting the site.
Now, let’s see how we do with a blackout. – Elizabeth B.
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Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine flu shots at school: Bracing for fall return (Thanks for John in Ohio for the link)
A Sign of Things To Come? Argentine Banks Close to Help Stop Spread of the Swine Flu
School-Age Children to Get Vaccinations First
Swine Flu Deaths in UK Double as Country Now Has Third Highest Cases
Britain’s first ‘healthy’ swine flu victim dies – the 15th fatality here in total
Obese Exposed as Swine Flu Collides with Fat Epidemic “An unexpected characteristic has emerged among many swine flu victims who become severely ill: They are fat. … People infected with the bug who have a body mass index greater than 40, deemed morbidly obese, suffer respiratory complications that are harder to treat and can be fatal.” JWR Adds: They are also prove difficult to transport to hospitals, and even just to draw blood samples.
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Economics and Investing:
I found this interview with the director of the president’s National Economic Council linked over at The Drudge Report: Lunch with the FT: Larry Summers.
Reader Don W. suggested an excellent piece at Pajama’s TV by Bill Whittle: When Politicians Go Bad: From DC to New York & California The Government We Don’t Deserve
Items from The Economatrix:
SEC May Put California IOU’s Under Fraud Protection Rules
May Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Drops
With Assets Less Toxic, Banks Have Other Troubles
Stocks Post Fourth Straight Week of Losses
Banks Seen Ready to Join US Program that Revises Home-Equity Loan Terms
Roubini: Lost “Animal Spirits” Worsen Economy
Consumer Sentiment in US Falls More than Forecast on Rising Joblessness
Trouble For Treasuries Lurk as California Melts
House Dems Want to Tax the Rich for Healthcare
How Long Can the US Dollar Defy the Law of Gravity?
US Unemployment Claims: How Bad are the “Real Numbers”?
Marty Weiss: Day of Reckoning for California and Ultimately All of America
Lunatics at Nationwide Offer 125% LTV Mortgages as if the Housing Crash Never Happened
Bankrupt Banking System Bailouts And Stimulus: You Can’t Borrow Your Way Out of Debt (Lots of charts and a nice list of where some of the stimulus money has gone) “Optima Lake is in line to receive $1.15 million in federal stimulus money to construct a new guardrail for a lake that does not exist. The guardrail is needed for “public safety,” says the Army Corps of Engineers, but there is not much of the public around to protect. Because the lake has never filled with water it is all but useless to potential visitors.”
Inflation or Deflation? Make Sure You Get This One Right
Higher Minimum Wage Coming July 24th to 29 States. Coming at this time, it might create more layoffs.
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Odds ‘n Sods:
Hawaiian K. suggested this piece by Mas Ayoob, in Backwoods Home magazine: How to shoot a handgun accurately
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In the most recent Dr. Housing Bubble blog: Westside Los Angeles: The Ultimate Prime and Stagnant Real Estate Market.
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Reader Paul P. offered a link to a thought-provoking piece on self-sufficiency in Sharon Astyk’s blog: Eat What You Grow, Grow What You Eat?
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Greg. C. suggested this piece by Chaz Valenza: Three Rules for Living Through the Second Depression
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Jim’s Quote of the Day:
“Of all the wonderful things government says, that’s always been just about my favorite [government spending creates jobs]. As opposed to if you get to keep the money. Because what you’ll do is go out and bury it in your yard, anything to prevent that money from creating jobs. They never stop saying it. They say it with a straight face and we in the press will write that down. We will say, ‘This is expected to create x number of jobs.’ On the other hand, we never say that the money we removed from another part of the economy will kill some jobs.” – Dave Barry
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A Primer for Silver Newbies, by H.R.F.
I have to admit that I’m a bit of a “silver bug.” I became enamored with the metal when I was 16 years old. That was the year that OPEC first jacked up the price of oil. Silver sold for only $3.14/oz. then (per Kitco.) A more accurate way of saying it is that one dollar equaled about one-third of an ounce of silver back then.
Today one dollar will only buy about 1/13 of an ounce of silver (silver at $13/oz.) This implies that the dollar has lost about 75% of it’s purchasing power over the last 36 years, or that it will buy only about one-fourth as much of anything.
Silver has been used as a common, and trusted, medium of exchange (money) for thousands of years. The Greeks coined the silver drachma (about the size of a dime); the Romans coined the silver denarius; and the Americans coined the silver dime, for the first time in 1794 and for the following 170 years, off and on. From 1873 until 1964 the amount of silver in a dime stayed the same. Then suddenly, in 1965, it went to zero.
In 1964 a single shiny new silver dime would buy a 12-ounce bottle of Coke from a vending machine. Three dimes would buy a gallon of gasoline, or a pound of bacon.
In 2009 the same (not quite as shiny) 1964 silver dime will still buy a 12-ounce bottle of Coke from a vending machine, and three 1964 dimes will still buy a gallon of gasoline (with a little change to spare!) Of course you’ll have to sell it first for those nasty Federal Reserve Notes.
The official price of silver is posted on the Kitco web site. Lately the official price of silver has been low compared to what silver has been selling for on eBay. The eBay prices are typically about 20% higher than the official Kitco “bid” price. The eBay prices are the real, market-driven, prices people are willing to pay. For reference the “melt” value of a silver coin is the amount that its silver content is worth based on the official price of silver.
With that said, these are the typical values (in Federal Reserve Notes) of common US “junk” silver coins as of July, 2009:
Pre-1965 dime $0 .94 “melt” or about $1.13 on eBay
Roll of pre-1965 dimes $ 47.00 “melt” or about $ 56.40 on eBay
Pre-1965 quarter $2.35 “melt” or about $2.82 on eBay
Roll of pre-1965 quarters $ 94.00 “melt” or about $ 112.80 on eBay
Pre-1965 half dollar $4.70 “melt” or about $5.64 on eBay
Roll of pre-1965 half dollars $ 94.00 “melt” or about $ 112.80 on eBay
Pre-1936 silver dollar $10.05 “melt” or about $13 – $14 each on eBay
These prices assume that the coins are non-collectible common dates. In the case of silver dollars there is always a $3 – $4 premium over “melt” because of the numismatic value of the coins. This is for noticeably worn silver dollars. Nicer silver dollars command considerably higher prices.
If the price of silver falls to $ 12/ounce then simply multiply the prices listed by 12 and divide the result by 13. If the price of silver rises to $ 14/ounce then multiply the prices by 14 and divide the result by 13.
I recommend that every serious survival-minded person accumulate and keep a minimum of $ 100 (face value) of pre-1965 silver on hand. Next to bullets, food, and gasoline this is going to be the most important commodity one can accumulate.
JWR Adds: Here is some additional useful data for calculating the bullion value of circulated US silver coins:
90% silver bags ($1,000 face value in 1964 or earlier dimes, quarters and half-dollars) contain approximately 715 ounces of silver
40% silver half-dollar bags ($1,000 face value in 1965 to 1970 mint date half-dollars) contain approximately 296 ounces of silver
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Letter Re: Practical Lessons Learned From Home Canning of Meat and Vegetables
JWR,
Thusfar this year I’ve canned 140 pints of meat and veggies. And more to go. I believe ready to heat and eat meals will be very handy when the Schumer hits the oscillating rotator. We grew the potatoes, garlic, onions, sweet banana peppers, and carrots ourselves. We buy whatever meat is the loss leader at the grocery that week. I am storing pasta separately. When we open a pint we will add cooked egg noodles. If one cans the egg noodles they get very mushy. I’ve been canning for some years now and have some serious advice. I opine that there are two human activities that require exquisite attention to detail: reloading ammo and canning food.
Data and equipment you will need: Ball Blue Book of Preserving ; one or more All American canners (these have a metal to metal seal) and spare parts for these; a Ball canning kit that contains a magnetic wand for lifting the hot lids from the boiling water, a jar funnel, a pair of tongs; all the pint jars (those made by Ball or Kerr pack better in a canner) that you can buy and store; extra lids. Why pints? Two reasons: less time required in the canner and one may pack more pints than 2x quarts in the canner. You need a very nice stock pot, I’ve a Piazza Professional that has a thick triple bottom. This distributes the heat much more quickly and evenly, vastly reducing any scorching of the food.
Now you need to ascertain how deep the stockpot needs to be filled to maximize the number of pints you are canning at a time. Remember that there should be 1 inch head space above the food when canning. So fill up the stockpot with the maximum number of pints you are able to put into your pressure canner with water that comes just up to one inch below the rim of the pint jar. Then measure in inches the depth of this water and put this info on a note on your stove. For my case, I do 17 pints at a time, and the stockpot needs to have the food 4.8 inches deep.
Now for the procedure:
First, read slowly and carefully the part of the Ball Blue Book on the overall procedure. My suggestions below are excerpts from the detailed procedure in the Ball Blue Book.
1. First put the pint jars, the jar funnel, the soup ladle, and a 6 cup Pyrex volume measuring device into the dishwasher. Place the jars onto the bottom rack. Add any other items to be dishwashed. Turn on the “heated dry” option. It takes me about 2.5 hours to get all the meat and veggies ready. If you wait about an hour to start the dishwasher then about the time the cycle is complete you will be ready to use the hot jars.
2. if the meat is about half frozen, half thawed, it is easier to cut and trim. First put ¼ inch olive oil in the stockpot (veggie oils provide essential nutrients). Then add chopped onion, chopped pepper (if you so desire), and finely chopped garlic. Do not heat yet. I cut the meat into small pieces, about a half inch in diameter. Add the meat to the stockpot. Now turn the heat on. At this point I add Mrs. Dash spice mix. Saute rather slowly as you prep the veggies.
3. Begin with the most difficult veggie to clean: carrots. I take the carrots from the ground and cut off 90% of the top leaves and stems, removing only the larger clumps of dirt. Place in 1 gallon ziploc plastic bags. They will store better in the refrigerator this way. Take them out of the refrigerator, put in a bucket in one side of your double sink. Add more than enough water to cover the carrots. Now using a very stiff vegetable brush, brush the carrots with a motion perpendicular to the length of the carrot. This will effectively clean most of the carrots, with the bits of dirt acting as an abrasive. Cut the top and root tip off, place in a pan filled with water. After all the carrots are in the pan, wash them several times. Then dice and wash again. Do not add to the stockpot, rather add to a chilled pan on your kitchen top.
4. Dice the remaining vegetables. Consider adding store-bought celery. If you’ve snap green beans, fresh corn, whatever, add them to the chilled pot.
5. when you believe you’ve enough diced veggies, place all of them into the heated stockpot, turn up the heat, add enough liquid (chicken stock is great) and chopped veggies to fill the stockpot to the measured depth. You want at least ¼ to 1/3 of the volume to be liquid. At this time begin heating the water in the pressure canner and the lids to be used should go into a small pot and heated to almost boiling on a low heat setting. Hopefully just as the mix in the stockpot comes to a boil the lids will be at the boiling point and the water in the pressure canner should also be boiling.
6. Place the jar funnel and the soup ladle into the 6 cup volume measuring device placed close to your stockpot. Place them back in this device between filling the pints. I fill the pints two at a time. I take two pints from the heated dishwasher and fill with the mix in the stockpot using the funnel and ladle just washed in the dishwasher. I often add a bay leaf and a couple of peppercorns to each jar before filling with the just-boiling mix. Make sure to leave 1 inch head space. All the veggies in each pint should be covered in water. Then I wipe the rims and outer threads with a damp paper towel, retrieve two lids from the boiling water with the magnetic wand, place the lids on the wiped jars, add the screw band and hand tighten about as hard as I am able. Then place the pints in the pressure canner.
7. When the pressure canner is filled with pints, carefully put on the lid and tighten down the screws, taking care that the space between the top of the canner and the lid is reasonably uniform. Then place the weight on the protruding orifice so that the 15 psi stamp is at the bottom. Then turn up the heat on the canner. Watch the pressure dial carefully. As it approaches 15 psi slowly reduce the heat so that it remains just below 15 psi. At this pressure a very small amount of noise will be made by the weight on the protruding orifice and a very little steam will escape. A pressure of 14 psi will suffice up to 8,000 foot altitude. At my altitude I need 11 psi, but go to between 14 and 15 as an added margin of safety. It is totally critical that the canner remain at the desired pressure for the entire time given by the Ball Blue Book. If one reduces the heat too fast, one may drop the pressure below the desired point.
8. After the Ball Blue Book time has elapsed, turn off the heat. Leave the canner alone. Do not mess with it in any way just yet. Note the time at which the pressure gauge has dropped to zero. Wait 1-to-2 hours after this time before opening the canner. If you do not wait this long, after you open the canner you may see steam and/or liquid escaping from the pints. This will generally result in failure to seal. Open the canner very carefully, holding the lid between the canner and your face. With a pair of canning jar tongs remove the pints and place onto a clean towel on your kitchen counter. Leave 2” air space between the pints. Now go make yourself some tea or coffee, go get into your rocking chair and rest. Do handle the jars in any way until the next day. Then I run hot water over the band, and using a flat rubber gripping device, remove the band from the jar and rinse the jar in hot water. Store the pints in the darkest coolest place you have that will not freeze. Write the year the pint was canned on the lid. Regards, – Holly
Economics and Investing:
Reader Steve H,. sent an interesting quote from BHO: “But while our markets are improving, and we appear to have averted global collapse, we know that too many people are still struggling. So we agree that full recovery is still a ways off; that it would be premature to begin winding down our stimulus plans; and that we must sustain our support for those plans to lay the foundation for a strong and lasting recovery. We also agreed that it’s equally important that we return to fiscal sustainability in the midterm after the recovery is completed.” [Emphasis added.] Steve’s comment: “I found that statement interesting, especially given that so many folks thought economic doomers and survivalists were way off base saying collapse was possible (I guess there is the outlying question of “what do you mean by collapse?”). While I hope things don’t collapse, I get a “famous last words” feeling reading it.” JWR Adds: And the reason that the collapse was averted was only because of a massive injection of liquidity, and a delay of implementation of strict accounting procedures. They are doing their best to re-inflate the debt bubble. The latest charade seems to be to create another bubble in derivatives trading of carbon credits. How long can they expect to keep this game going?
DD spotted this: More trouble ahead for housing
A piece from Market Watch, sent by regular content contributor GG: Latest Schultz Shock: a ‘bank holiday’
Allison K. sent this: Michigan could hit 20% jobless rate
From RVC: China criticises dollar
Items from The Economatrix:
Small Investors are Hoarding Gold
Congress Warned Again About “Meddling” in the Fed’s Affairs
Shiny Days Ahead for Silver (The Mogambo Guru)
Odds ‘n Sods:
Readers Chuck and Garnet both sent this link: Potato famine disease striking home gardens in U.S.
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Safecastle Royal has added several new interesting products to their line, including a the new extra-large 8″-diameter Bury-‘Em caching tube, the K8 Nuke Safeguard Mini Alarm, and a 12-can variety of pack of Yoder’s canned meats.
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Chiming in on the recent discussion of transferring liquid propane between tanks, reader Chris M. mentioned: “Harbor Freight has an item with part #45989 for refilling propane bottles.”
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Richard Fleetwood (of SurvivalRing) has announced a new “Preparedness Primer” CD set. This set includes 10 CD-ROMs with hundreds of digitized books.
Jim’s Quote of the Day:
“My soul finds rest in God alone; for my salvation comes from Him. He alone is my rock and my salvation; He is my fortress; I will never be shaken.” – Psalm 62:1-2
Note from JWR:
Today we present another entry for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.
First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.
Round 23 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
Disaster Procedures: A Survival Field Guide, by A.V.
The Relevance of Procedures
In a disaster situation many things previously fixed become variable. Communications, supplies, security and many other aspects of civilized society that we often take for granted may quickly become mired down by inefficient or massive use. Equipped as we are with a survival mindset, many still succumb to the environment of pandemonium that evolves: we forget our training, misuse our equipment, and the pace of events overwhelms us. On top of these considerations, many interested in disaster preparation may not have a family or group that is equally well-versed in the nuances of survival situations.
Many organizations address these shortcomings through the use of Procedures. Corporations use Procedures to ensure that any new employee has the ability to step into a task with the ability to perform the necessary work. The military has developed and adapted Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for use in situations where soldiers require guidance or where logic alone may not lead to the performance of the appropriate actions. Procedures and SOP are ways to coordinate actions and ensure consistency and unity of direction. They are tools of continuity.
Bringing the Problem to Light
To understand the utility of procedures I present a hypothetical situation:
A local disaster or emergency has occurred. It is a Tuesday morning in the coldest month of December. In reaction to the disaster or emergency cell phone circuits are full, power is spotty or out altogether, major traffic arteries are congested or stopped, and law enforcement is stretched beyond capacity. You are at work 10 miles north of your home, your spouse is at work 10 miles south of your home. Do you know what to do to get home? Does your spouse know what to do? Does either know precisely what the other is doing at any point in time?
In this (albeit simplistic) example a lack of clear procedure leads very quickly to losing control of an already volatile situation. It is this lack of organization that causes panic and wasted effort, which ultimately endanger your personal and family security. Had this hypothetical couple developed procedures such as a communication plan they could have coordinated activities and exchanged information. If one of the pair was injured while traveling home a set medical plan could help mitigate the injury or inform the other where the injured is located. A logistical procedure may have exposed a weakness in supplies such as food or potable water that could be devastating during a protracted crisis.
If there is value in the security that organization provides then the need for procedural doctrine and tactics logically follows.
Procedure Categories
Procedures can take many forms to fit many different types of situations. Purely technical activities may include a step-by-step set of directions, dependant procedures may closely emulate flow charts, and dynamic procedures might simply be a list of suggested activities or responses. Procedures for realistic situations or activities will generally be a mixture of the three.
Procedure Category Examples:
· Technical: Changing a tire, purifying water, preventative maintenance checks on vehicles.
· Dependant: Collecting rain water, planting/seeding crops, getting additional medical assistance.
· Dynamic: Negotiating or bartering, giving charity, allowing access to secured areas.
Procedures also resemble manuals, how-to, and tip sheets. The primary difference is that procedures also provide a context and logically reasoned purpose for the activities. Think of them as a road map: knowledge of individual parts may be the map, but the procedure provides the route.
Procedures Borne of Necessity
Emergency procedures are driven by the most likely situations you may encounter. A useful practice in developing procedures is to identify your needs during an emergency and then to extrapolate from those needs the activities and responses which would allow you to maintain an acceptable level of security and organization. Then break those needs down to their most basic procedural elements and begin to clearly document each one. What should develop is a personalized manual for disaster response and survival, which only needs occasional updates as situations specifically cited in the documentation change.
Some common themes for specific portions of a disaster procedure include the following:
· Communications: This procedure set defines the types, frequencies, and content of communications in a disaster situation. It contains contingencies in case of a the breakdown of certain communication system types (cell phones, Internet, land lines), the frequency of communication attempts (when attempting to use cell phones you may attempt to call every two minutes for 20 minutes), and the content of messages sent (messages include the name, time, location, to and from destination, ETA / ETD, all or part of which might be coded).
· Medical: This procedure set may contain any number of items, such as treatment of common injuries or illnesses, nearby medical resources, transportation to advanced care as well as decision standards used to determine the level of care needed.
· Transportation: This procedure set includes transportation asset availability and use standards, as well as maintenance and associated items and requirements. It may include things like routes to common or expected locations, communications plans and times, checkpoints, and logistics along the route.
Maintaining Inventory
Lists or inventories of relevant items are an excellent thing to include with your procedures. For instance, your medical procedure set might rely upon knowing the approximate amount of items available, such as the number of splints, bandages, tourniquets, and medication. Perhaps your procedures trigger a re-supply when you have a certain amount of medication. You may opt to keep a master inventory with categories that allow you to discern with ease where items are expected to be used or needed. Keep an electronic copy of these procedures and inventories, but make sure to print out updates on a regular basis.
The Procedure Manual
Format of the procedure manual is also important. Use page sizes that make the booklet easy to carry, such as half of a standard piece of paper. At the end of each major portion include a few blank or lined pages for notes. Laminate the booklet and keep a stash of fine-point Sharpies and alcohol pens. Leave a larger edge on one side of the laminated pages, punch or cut holes in this then use rings to secure the pages together. If done properly this booklet will last through the elements long enough to remain useful in any emergency, as well as be modular enough to remove or replace sections as needed or updated. As with anything upon which you may have to rely, maintain operational security and keep informed.