Active Preparedness Planning: Identifying and Mitigating Threats, by Paul C.

Here is my approach to actively preparing for disasters: 1. Identify potential threats. 2. Gather quantitative and qualitative information on impact. 3. Identify which threats are the most likely. 4. Identify critical needs for survival. 5. Estimate outage time that can be tolerated. 6. Compile resource requirements. 7. Identify alternatives. 1. Identify potential threats. Threats will come from two main areas: man-made or natural. Man-made threats include labor strikes, riots, fires, chemical spills, terrorism, and vandals. A labor strike might mean that garbage collection or that public transportation stops. Urban riots have hit cities like Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami, and …




State and Federal Lands–Poor Choices for Short Term Retreat Locales

I often have people ask me if state or Federally-managed forest land or BLM land would be a viable place to take temporary or long term shelter in the event of of a societal collapse. There might be exceptions, but my blanket assertion is no, that is a bad idea for even a temporary retreat locale. Here is my rationale: Access: Access is a huge issue. Public lands are intended for visits, not residence.Odds are that if you make camp on state or Federal land, men with badges and guns will arrive within a couple of weeks and forcibly send …




Letter Re: Observations on the Recent Missouri Ice Storm

Mr. Rawles, I live in Southwestern Missouri. Did you followed the ice storm that buried the Midwest? We got hit pretty hard. We get hit hard every four or five years. Which brings me to my point. I have never seen so many unprepared people in all my life. After day two of the ice storm power was out (for a month in a lot of places like Springfield). There were no gas cans to be found at any store. Batteries, disposable propane bottles, flashlights, milk, and meat were missing from the shelves of every store. Even Wally World [Wal-Mart] …




Kanban: America’s Ubiquitous “Just in Time” Inventory System–A Fragile House of Cards

When I give lectures or do radio interviews, I’m often asked for proof when I mention that we live in a “fragile society.” Here is one prime example: kanban. The kanban or “just in time” inventory system was developed in Japan, and became popular in America starting in the 1970s. It is now ubiquitous in nearly every industry. The concept is simple: Through close coordination with subcontractors and piece part suppliers, a manufacturer can keep its parts inventory small. (Kanban is a key element of “lean manufacturing.”) They only order batches of parts as needed (“just in time”), sometimes ordering …




Letter Re: CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) Training

Jim- I’m just finishing up the nine-lesson [Citizen Corps] CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) training. I highly recommend it. Besides the very good information on dealing with a variety of scenarios, I really like the heavy emphasis on taking care of yourself and your family first. This gets constant reinforcement. So though the training is intended to help you be useful as a first responder, it is even more useful in helping you harden up your home, yourself and your family members. Of course it’s also a very good way to invite your neighbors into a local cohort group: instead …




Letter Re: Rural Retreat Matchmaking for Big City Dwellers

Dear Jim: Regarding retreats for big city dwellers, the more you read and think, the clearer it becomes: 1. Your retreat from the big city needs to be more than a distance than is convenient to travel on a weekly basis. 2. You really need someone there full time for security and maintenance. [JWR Adds: And to establish/develop gardens, fruit trees, nut trees, and livestock for self-sufficiency.] 3. One family (unless a humongous family by modern standards) is not enough folks to have a diversity of skills, keep good perimeter security, or defend in a TSHTF situation. 4. [Affording both] …




Two Letters Re: The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

Mr. Rawles: Your “The Next Pandemic” article and he responses to it that you posted really got me thinking. If it all hits the fan, how can I possibly hand out charity to refugees without them just taking it all, by force? Once a bunch of people are in your house, or even in your front yard, they have the advantage. I really want to be generous and charitable, since it is my duty as a Christian. (I have more than 2 tons of wheat, rice. and other stuff stored, for example.) But I don’t want to get cleaned out …




A Minimalist 50 Mile Hike in the Smoky Mountains, by Albert J.

It was the summer of 1980. I’d read Robert Ringer and John Pugsley books on surviving coming economic collapses. Both taught how you should prepare yourself for such events. In another year I would finish graduate school and start living the 9 to 5 dream. Ha! So this summer it was time to do a little survival training and think on these things. I decided to hike part of the Appalachian Trail through the Great Smoky Mountains. Being a minimalist anyway and having read much of H. David Thoreau and about a Greek philosopher, Diogenes, I wanted to carry as …




Two Letters Re: The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

Hi Jim: Perusing the “blog” the other evening, and, in response to your post of how certain members of our society react when normalcy is interrupted. I would like to relate an experience I had during an extended power outage, with my house being the only house within a two block area having power. As I am the end house on the cul-de-sac, my assumption is I am fed from the next subdivision. None-the-less, quite an eye opening experience. One Friday afternoon, after some pretty heavy storms, the power goes out. When one of the neighbors sees that I still …




Two Letters Re: How to Reply to “When the SHTF, I’m Going Over to Your House”, by Rolf in the Northwest

Jim: [In reply to Matt’s comments on Rolf’s original letter:] There are a lot of examples to illustrate why each person needs their own disaster preps, and the “insurance” example (“why should your fire insurance pay for my house burning down, or vice-versa?”) is a good one. Another is the “personalization” aspect: “Sorry, I’m a single guy; I doubt I’d stock your wife’s brand of feminine protection.” But people tend to think of “disaster preparations” as special or different in some way, because they are not “normal accidents,” and most people have a very hard time thinking outside a fairly …




Letter Re: How to Reply to “When the SHTF, I’m Going Over to Your House”, by Rolf in the Northwest

Jim, I liked Rolf’s idea for a reply to the “I’m coming to your house” comments. I like to say: “If you got in a car wreck, you wouldn’t expect my car insurance to cover it would you? No, of course not, that’s what you have your own car insurance for. If your house burned down, you wouldn’t expect my house insurance to cover it would you? No, of course not, that’s what you have your own house insurance for. So, how would it be any different in a disaster. Do you think my disaster insurance should cover you in …




Letter Re: Yet Another Article Touting “Mobility” for Survival

Jim: Thank you for response on the mobile survival fantasy. I think it is dangerous for the average Joe to believe that he can be a mountain man. Sure, some can, in some climates and locations with lots of training. Even then it’s dangerous and unpredictable. A twisted ankle can be the end of you. Remember too, those mountain survival stories were from the days when the wildlife in this country was at much higher levels. For most of us it means being cold, wet, tired, hungry and thirsty in the woods and being targets on the streets. (“Nice pack …




The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

At the dawn of the 21st century, we are living in an amazing time of prosperity. Our health care is excellent, our grocery store shelves burgeon with a huge assortment of fresh foods, and our telecommunications systems are lightning fast. We have relatively cheap transportation, and our cities are linked by an elaborate and fairly well-maintained system of roads, rails, canals, seaports, and airports. For the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s population will soon live in cities rather than in the countryside. But the downside to all this abundance is over-complexity, over-specialization, and lengthy supply …




Letter Re: Observations on the Recent Oklahoma Ice Storm

Jim: Well, I just got back online. I had to go up to the roof and thaw the wireless [Internet] antenna with a heat gun. It seems the ice grounds out the antenna. It was an easy fix with my heat gun for heat shrink tubing. More precipitation is on the way but colder. It will probably just be snow. We never lost power but were ready anyway. I have friends with no power and they have been without power for days and no idea when it will be back on. The further out you live, the less chance of …




How to Reply to “When the SHTF, I’m Going Over to Your House”, by Rolf in the Northwest

How many times in the course of a conversation at a meeting, party, event, or whatever, has the subject of emergency preparedness come up, and you make a comment about the having done something (anything) about it in some way, and someone says “the next time [something bad] happens, I’m coming over to your place!” How do you reply? You can’t invite everybody in need, you don’t want to invite parasites, you don’t want to piss off friends and co-workers, and you may not be able to tell if they are joking or serious. However viscerally satisfying a “I got …