Category: Emerging Threats

Letter Re: More Evidence of Peak Oil Decline–Preparing for Much Higher Gasoline Prices

Dear Jim and Family, Bad news from the largest oil field in Mexico. The Canterell field, formerly reported to decline at 2% last August, 6% in October, and 11% in December has been rated at 25% today. Oil production has dropped from 1.99 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day. This is a very bad thing. Most of that oil goes to the USA via NAFTA treaties. There are no fields to replace it, and since Mexico has 51% leftist leanings, no oil company will risk investing there (Pemex was formed from seized foreign oil investments, most …


Two Letters Re: How to Reply to “When the SHTF, I’m Going Over to Your House”, by Rolf in the Northwest

Jim: [In reply to Matt’s comments on Rolf’s original letter:] There are a lot of examples to illustrate why each person needs their own disaster preps, and the “insurance” example (“why should your fire insurance pay for my house burning down, or vice-versa?”) is a good one. Another is the “personalization” aspect: “Sorry, I’m a single guy; I doubt I’d stock your wife’s brand of feminine protection.” But people tend to think of “disaster preparations” as special or different in some way, because they are not “normal accidents,” and most people have a very hard time thinking outside a fairly …


Letter Re: The Derivatives Bubble

I wanted to say thanks so much for the excellent derivatives article. [“Derivatives–The Mystery Man Who’ll Break the Global Bank at Monte Carlo.”] I speculate in this market and wholly share your opinion about what exists, the ignorance of the implications, and the clear and present danger to the lifestyle of everyone on the planet. Keep up the good work with the blog and with excellent articles such as this. Respectfully, – CMC


The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

At the dawn of the 21st century, we are living in an amazing time of prosperity. Our health care is excellent, our grocery store shelves burgeon with a huge assortment of fresh foods, and our telecommunications systems are lightning fast. We have relatively cheap transportation, and our cities are linked by an elaborate and fairly well-maintained system of roads, rails, canals, seaports, and airports. For the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s population will soon live in cities rather than in the countryside. But the downside to all this abundance is over-complexity, over-specialization, and lengthy supply …


Letter Re: An Interesting Television Show on the Pandemic Threat

Most everyone loves a good medical mystery. You know, we watch these shows like “House” and “ER” to see what the medical emergency is and to watch the drama unfold as they solve the crisis of the moment. Shows like “CSI” teach us a lot about the medical community and police work together to solve crimes. You’re going to probably see in the television season to come that the subject in this link is going to be played out in various popular drama shows. Understanding the reality behind it to me is as interesting as the drama plays and I …


Two Letters Re: Israeli Nuclear Saber Rattling

James The Olmert government would not do a nuclear strike of any kind even if we were at risk of being completely overrun. The weakness in response can be seen in the war in Lebanon where only minimal measures were used and only against safe targets after about 8 hours of leaflet warnings. Olmert simply will not upset his liberal European friends even when Washington orders him to act strongly. This is likely part of a wind up similar to what we saw before the Iraq invasion although I am doubtful that there will be an American ground occupation of …


Ten Things That Will Get You Killed While Bugging In, by Paul C.

“Bugging in” is the term used for staying at home while waiting for an event to pass you by. [As opposed to “bugging out”–fleeing to a lightly populated region.] Even the largest civil events of the last one hundred years haven’t set society off here in the United States of its normal course for more than two weeks. Double that for a month and you’ll survive, or out survive, any event likely to hit. After whatever event that has set society on its end has struck the 99 out of one hundred people that haven’t prepared for survival are going …


Letter Re: Is the Threat of a Yellowstone Supervolcano Significant?

Hello, Jim! I have been following your blog and every time the subject comes up on retreats in the [U.S.] Northwest, I have the same question. What about the volcano threat from Yellowstone National Park? Would you please comment on this. Thanks, – GCP JWR Replies: Part of what you are reading in the mainstream media may be sensationalist hype, but there is definitely a long term risk. (An eruption sometime in the next 10,000 years.) The imponderable question is: Is there as significant risk in the short term? Clearly, none of the “experts” really know for certain. Yes, there …


Letter Re: Oilfield Production Decline Rates are Worse than Expected

Dear Jim and Family, I wish I could say Happy New Year, but i just learned some terrible news in the oil business. The big fields where most of the USA and world get their oil are declining at much faster rates than expected, and the companies are willing to admit to high numbers. In summary: Burgan field in Kuwait dropping at 11% per year. Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia (biggest in the world) dropping at 8%, which is 5.5% higher than expected. Cantarell field in Mexico (source of most US oil) is dropping at 14% rather than the 6% …


Letter Re: Manpower Requirements for Defending a Retreat in a Worst Case, and the Jealous Neighbor Factor

James: The “Mr. and Mrs. Oscar” profile was most interesting. For a lot of us, probably the epitome of “If I had the money, my retreat would be…” On the downside, I would be concerned with: 1. The problem of defending/patrolling the property. A quarter section translates to a full mile of frontier. In a full SHTF situation, I’d want a trustworthy, commo equipped, well-armed loyal soul every 100 yards or so. If those folks put in 12 hour shifts, you’d need about 35 hands for perimeter security. That doesn’t take into account the roving patrols on the interior of …


Two Letters Re: Minimum Safe Distance From The Big City for Retreat Locales?

Dear Jim, My thoughts on retreat location, or living location (Ideally the same place) are as follows: From recent disasters (Hurricane Katrina, the Kim family, others), I see that most people are bound by societal rules of the road to stick to the Interstates or major highways, and to trust gadgets, without learning the mapping and math behind them. The worst places I can think of to live are the nice country houses one sees from the freeway. These are certain to be looted in a major disaster. US highways aren’t likely to be much of an improvement. However, as …


Letter Re: Minimum Safe Distance From The Big City for Retreat Locales?

Dear Jim: Re your recommendation that a retreat for TEOTWAWKI needs to be “at least one tank of gas away from the big cities–preferably at least 300 miles, if possible” to escape at least the worst of roving looter gangs. I agree 100% — I see getting out of the [path of the] flow of looters as the # 1 problem. Just like real estate – LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. You can store food, and learn how to grow food in time (or barter stored wealth) but no matter how good you are, sooner or later you’ll take casualties if you …


Letter Re: Is Radio Direction Finding a Potential Threat for Survivalists?

Mr. Rawles: Hey, I was just wondering what everyone with radios is planning in order to conceal the location of their transmissions from people who could potentially use the signal as a beacon to guide them right to your antenna. It might be fairly difficult to build a tracker, but I suspect there are pre-made devices to direction-find a fairly strong signal (e.g. ham radio). Thanks, – James D. JWR Replies: The only people that have effective radio direction finding (“DF“) equipment and the requisite expertise to operate it are A.) The NSA and a few other government agencies such …


City Versus Country Mindsets and Expectations, by Inyokern

As we all know, City people and Country people have a very different outlook on life. Some of that is opportunity, some is envy, some is ignorance. For the last 120+ years, the US economy (and much of the world economy) has been one of capitalism and materialism. Making stuff and selling it, making the economy grow until the physical limits are reached. Well, they’ve been reached. Peak Oil has led to the beginning of what is probably a pretty long collapse, but I can only judge based on the Roman Empire and the 1929 crash, history, rather than compare …


Two Letters Re: Implications of Directly Confronting Criminals

James This is a comment about the remarks that Dutch from Wyoming made about the man who moved from Colorado due to gangs. What did Dutch want the guy from Colorado to do? Start exterminating them? We all fantasize about doing away with the bad guys, but how do you do it and still stay out of jail or get the lethal injection? I retired from law enforcement from California and moved to Montana for some of the same reasons the man from Colorado did. I arrested hundreds, maybe thousands (never kept count) of gang members during my career. An …