Category: Emerging Threats

Letter Re: Simulation of Pandemic Influenza – Preparedness Implications

Jim, I appreciate everything that you and your readers are doing to help change the mindset of people around the world. I was reviewing the May/June issue of a health care trade magazine that contained a report on a simulation carried out in Philadelphia at the start of this year dealing with pandemic influenza. While much of the discussion was relevant only to health insurers, the scenario that served as the simulation is detailed below. Readers can draw their own conclusions of the type of things that they should prepare for. The following is exerted from: Raymond, A.G. (2008). Pandemic …


Letter Re: The Five Minute Bank Run

Dear Mr. Rawles: I wanted to tell you a personal experience I just had at the bank that scares me to death. If you think a bank can last a few days during a bank run, then you will be very surprised by my story. I wanted to withdraw $10,000 from a JP Morgan Chase Bank branch in a local Houston [, Texas] suburb. Chase is the second largest bank in the US and Houston is the fourth largest city in the US. I went in and said: “Can I please have my money?” The teller disappeared for 10 minutes …


Letter Re: Huge Price Hikes by Dow Chemical are an Ominous Inflation Indicator

Jim, In the news today, Dow Chemical is announcing a 25% price increase, following a 20% increase three weeks ago. Since they produce the feedstock chemicals for almost every industry on earth, this should be a great indicator of what’s coming. – ZBM JWR Replies: Ay carumba! Dow produces a huge variety of chemicals and compounds that go into everything from fertilizers to plastics. This is an alarming indicator of consumer price increases in the near future. When paired with fuel price jumps, this becomes downright frightening for near-future food prices at the consumer level. At this point, precious metals …


Two Letters Re: Tomorrow’s Headlines? — A Nationwide Banking Panic

Hi James, First, thanks for sharing Mike [“Mish”} Shedlock’s recent article with the SurvivalBlog.com community. Like you, I’ve grown to trust his observations and analysis and I read his work as often as I read yours – daily. I wanted to add a couple of comments, which will strengthen both Mish’s and your viewpoints concerning your observations on the potential for a nationwide banking panic. First – is that [as mentioned,] the FDIC is preparing for this crisis right now, by hiring back some retirees, with specific experience in dealing with bank failures, as they are expecting a large number …


Tomorrow’s Headlines? — A Nationwide Banking Panic

Since September of 2007, I’ve been warning SurvivalBlog readers about the potential for bank failures and bank runs in the US, spawned by the unfolding global credit collapse. I am now raising my warning to multiple red flags. There are certainly some ominous signs. These include: New banking scrutiny–especially for investment banks. Plunging bank reserves. A few more bank failures this year than in a typical year. A record increase in “bank owned” (foreclosed) houses. New FDIC rules on assessing risks at major banks.To be ready for bank runs, the FDIC has even re-hired some former employees from its division …


Letter Re: Numerous New Economic Crash Warnings

Hi Jim, Within the last couple of days I have noticed that multiple economic and financial institutions have started to issue global financial crash alerts. For instance: – Morgan Stanley warns of a ‘catastrophic event’. The point of maximum stress could occur in coming months if the European Central Bank (ECB) starts to raise rates and the Fed backs away from expected tightening. The rates differential “could trigger a ‘catastrophic’ event”. – The Global Europe Anticipation (LEAP/E2020) team is now convinced that this period will consist for the whole world in a major plunge into the heart of the phase …


Letter Re: Gasoline Prices in the UK–a Preview of Upcoming Prices in the US?

Mr Rawles, First, I will be taking the 10 Cent Challenge starting this week, as I get far more than 10-cents worth of information per day from this wonderful blog. Second, I saw this article on the BBC web site. Fuel £1.99 a litre as tanks dry That’s right, for stations that haven’t run dry yet (1970s America all over again?), gas is selling for the equivalent of $14.76 per US gallon. Time to start thinking about what the US would look like at $15 a gallon. Yours, – DLF


Letter Re: More About Recent Flooding in the US Midwest

Jim, I’m sending a follow-up to your link on the historic flooding in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Typical issues: Roads closed or collapsed, bridges flooded or swept away, traffic jams for miles, power and gas outages, water shortages, businesses closed, forced evacuation of 20,000 people included the local jails and a hospital. Cleanup will take months, and there will be shortages of construction material. Heck, we had shortages of lumber and sheetrock in Iowa during the Florida and Louisiana hurricanes. And what has become typical – jurisdictional disputes. Local law enforcement has its own issues, but FEMA doesn’t play well with …


Some Preparedness Implications of Rapidly Escalating Fuel Prices

The recent jump in fuel prices are going to have some far reaching effects on our economy. There is speculation that crude oil may soon spike to $150 to $170 per barrel. As prepared individuals, we need to adapt our plans, accordingly. It is noteworthy that many of us long hence foresaw these dark days, and installed underground fuel tanks, bought alternate fuel vehicles, multi-fuel generators, and at least one vehicle just for the sake of fuel economy. (If you look at the Retreat Owner Profiles–most of which were written in late 2005 and early 2006–you will see a remarkable …


Letter Re: Neighbors and Friends are Failing to Adapt and Prepare for New Threats

Mr. Rawles: I stumbled upon your blog site last month and it was the equivalent of a “reboot” in terms of my own thinking about how to adapt to the conditions surrounding “Peak Oil” and Global Warming. I’m grateful for your web site and efforts. I commend your honesty. I envy your faith. In the past months local and national events highlight the scope of the trouble we now all face. I’m afraid the direction is irreversible. To list a few, gasoline and diesel prices have climbed to new heights, both global and local weather conditions indicate a promise of …


Letter Re: Consumer Price Hikes for Food Will Continue

James – I’m a long time reader first time writer. I have been in the food business for 31 years with many companies, over the past 12 months I have had to raise my prices around 27% but my costs have risen 57%. We are afraid to continue passing on the rise because business has already decreased substantially but within the next few months we will be forced to raise our prices another 25% or quit the business. What I am trying to say is that we are at most, only halfway through the food inflation which has already occurred, …


Letter Re: An Oil Trader’s Observations on the Market Implications of War with Iraq

Jim, I’ve been trading crude oil for a few decades now, and in the last two sessions I’ve seen trading like I haven’t seen since Desert Storm, large unexplained up moves, $5.50 yesterday (6/5) and as I type this the market opened $6.00 higher. For a huge liquid market such as Crude Oil, these are large moves. I went to the Jerusalem Post to search out any open source tidbits/indicators and I stumbled upon this article. To buttress this, Gold is up $22 and Silver up 35 cents. The first piece of Israeli ordnance to hit Iranian soil could cause …


Lady Liberty Liberty Has a Hollow Core

The best known symbol of the United States is the Statue of Liberty. It was a gift from the people of France, with a framework designed by Gustave Eiffel. (Yes, the same gent that designed the Eiffel Tower.) Eiffel’s Liberty statue armature design was clever, and made the statue an amazingly lightweight for a structure that towers 151 feet tall. Rather than a traditional solid masonry statue, Lady Liberty is built on a hollow framework to which copper sheets are attached. I have recently come to realize that the Statue of Liberty is a fitting symbol for the United States …


Letter Re: A Clash of World Views–Socialism Versus the Libertarian Ethic

Mr. Rawles: [Your frequent quotes from conservatives such as Thomas Sowell and Austrian School economists] blithely ignore the reality of corporatism, authoritarianism, predation, and entrenched elites. We’ve had our grand experiment in deregulation and the magic of the market, and it’s now perfectly clear where it got us. Why don’t you look up a good quote on the definition of an idealogue [sic] — someone who won’t let go of pretty delusions even when the real world proves the idealogy [sic] wrong. This is where the right wing is today. They want yet more of what has driven this country …


Surviving During the Crisis (Translated from the Energie & Klima Blog)

JWR’s Introductory Note: The following is a re-post from the Energie & Klima Blog, which was kindly translated by SurvivalBlog reader Martyn B., a multi-lingual Danish ex-pat that lives in Spain . To read the original article in German, see: Überleben in der Krise Within the next two years, the price of oil could rise to $150 to $200 per barrel, analysts of the investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasted yesterday under the management of the famous chief analyst, Arjun N. Murti. According to the news agency Bloomberg, the cause is stated mainly as being that the supply of oil cannot …