Category: Emerging Threats

The Precepts of My Survivalist Philosophy

In the past week I’ve had three newcomers to SurvivalBlog.com write and ask me to summarize my world view. One of them asked: “I could spend days looking through [the] archives of your [many months of] blog posts. But there are hundreds of them. Can you tell me where you stand, in just a page? What distinguishes the “Rawlesian” philosophy from other [schools of] survivalist thought?” I’ll likely add a few items to this list as time goes on, but here is a general summary of my precepts: Modern Society is Increasingly Complex, Interdependent, and Fragile. With each passing year, …


Letter Re: Food Riots in Haiti

Mr. Rawles, The BBC and several other news outlets are reporting Food Riots in Haiti, where food scarcity and price increases have resulted in violence. Reports say mobs are looting shops, burning cars, blocking roads, and shooting at UN Peacekeepers. It is also reported one man was shot to death by UN Peacekeepers. The rioters are responding to food prices increasing some 50% over the past year. Apparently the United States and France will be sending more money to assist in subsidizing food prices. There’s plenty of information about this showing online. Here are a couple of links, one from …


Letter Re: Implications of High Grain Prices for Livestock Owners — Stock Up!

Dear JWR, The prices for wheat and soy and orchard grass crop seed have risen 40% in our region this spring. And that is the farm supply co-op pricing. The N and Phos. fertilizer is pretty well matching this increase. Lime is only 20% higher than last fall. Most of the larger crop farmers (200 acres or more) in our eastern central area (which 5 years ago used to be primarily tobacco fields) are now counting on a moderate to large profit in return because these edible cash crops are being currently negotiated and purchased in bulk to be shipped …


Economic Climate Change: The Long Winter May Begin This Summer

I’ve had several consulting clients contact me in recent weeks, all with notes of fear in their voices. They realize that something is horribly wrong with the economy, but they cannot properly isolate and articulate the problem. I haven’t been able to calm them, however, because to an extent I share their anxiety. In my estimation, the “something wrong” that we sense is nothing short of a monumental shift in the economic climate. America is clearly headed for a recession. Most economic recessions are simply a product of the business cycle. These recessions are relatively mild and they often last …


Letter Re: Sword Ban Begins on April 6th in the United Kingdom

James: In the past you have recommended that SurvivalBlog readers in the UK to get a samurai sword. Well, they are banning them now. As of the 6th April 2008 it will become illegal to manufacture, import or sell (but not own) all swords with a curved, single edged blade over 50 cm in the U.K. Although they can still supply such weapons for “permitted activities”. These activities include; Historical re-enactments and Sporting Activities. The legislation does not mention samurai swords. It only mentions single-edged curved swords with a blade length of 50cm or over. As per the document, it …


News from Wall Street and Capitol Hill–The Mother Of All Bailouts Begins to Grow

Last week, the mainstream media described the latest expansion of the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), but they politely refrained from calling this what it is: socialism, plain and simple. The grand plan, as it stands now, is to bail out not just consumer banks, but also investment banks, with taxpayer dollars. They are effectively making our life savings and our future earnings surety for a bunch of idiotic contrapreneurs‘ loans on everything from flat top duplexes to McMansions. These were houses that the contrapreneurs bought, that they could never really afford unless the market continued to rise at an …


The Nationalization of Wall Street, by John Ing

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke once said: “By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.” The Fed slashed short-term interest rates six times in six months to 2.25 per cent from 5.25 per cent despite the U.S. Department of Labor …


Meet The Economic Collapse Family, by Will in Wyoming

In recent months, as he described America’s incipient economic peril, Jim Rawles has made references in SurvivalBlog.com to “The Mother of All Bailouts.” To illustrate the extent of the disaster that is awaiting us–I’d like to introduce you to the entire Economic Collapse Family’s cast of characters. This family is so large that I’ll use numerous analogies and, with apologies, some mixed metaphors. To include the full Dramatis Personae I’ll have to borrow from both The Addams Family, and The Munsters. My apologies to anyone that never saw these two TV shows from the 1960s. This will seem like gibberish …


Letter Re: More on the Emerging U.S. Grain Shortages

Jim: I was told by a local LDS Bishop’s storehouse that the church is out of white wheat and will no longer be providing it because they buy it and it’s simply too expensive right now on the open market. The wait time for [hard] red [winter] wheat orders is 3-to-4 weeks. Another LDS cannery in Utah is also out of several items that they typically have on hand. Get your food storage while you can. – Junior


Guest Editorial: Honey, I Vaporized My Customers, by John Mauldin

By now, everyone knows that the subprime crisis started with non-existent lending standards which resulted in the large numbers of foreclosures we are seeing today. Those foreclosures will be rising throughout the year. We are not near anything like the top of the rising number of foreclosures. Ben Bernanke said last July that losses from the subprime would be in the $100 billion dollar range. True confession. I think I wrote six months earlier that it would be $200 billion. I point that out to make the point that I am an optimist by nature. The latest “bidding war” number …


Debate on Pending Legislation Reveals the Depth of Debasement of Our Currency and Coinage

The US House of Representatives is currently debating HR 5512, (the “Coin Modernization and Taxpayer Savings Act of 2008”) legislation that would further debase our coinage. According to a article in The Chicago Tribune titled Change for a Penny?, pennies will soon be made of steel instead of zinc. Although the bill leaves it up to the Treasury, presumably, five cent pieces would be made of zinc instead of their current alloy of copper and nickel. I’ve warned SurvivalBlog readers that this was coming, and that they should start saving nickels. Coincidentally, reader RBS sent us a link to an …


The Ides of March–The Dreaded Margin Calls Have Begun at Banks and Hedge Funds

This week the news wires were abuzz about the Bear Stearns bailout. It all started with a margin call. An investment banking insider tipped me that there will be perhaps as many as five more “margin calls that can’t be answered” next week. Three names mentioned as possibly getting the dreaded call are Goldman Sachs on Tuesday and both Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers on Wednesday–on the same day that each reports their first quarter earnings. The word on the street is that all three may need to be bailed out, to varying degrees. Who is standing in the wings …


Credit Collapse: The Depression Countdown Begins

SurvivalBlog includes plenty of gloom and doom, but I do my best to not be a ranting and raving alarmist. The recent torrential flood of bad economic news, however, has led me to now urge greater preparedness. Don’t quit your job and head for the hills yet, but by all means redouble your efforts to get ready. In my estimation, we are now on a short countdown to economic depression. Back in early 2006, I first warned about derivatives trading. Since June of 2007, I have been warning about the larger implications of CDOs. In January of 2008, I pointed …


“Official” Statistics on Population, Employment, Income Levels, Money Supply, and Inflation?

James: In a recent Odds ‘n Sods item, you cited a article published by The New York Times: You stated: “A key data point mentioned in the article: ‘The median household [in the US] earned $48,201 in 2006, down from $49,244 in 1999, according to the Census Bureau.’ “ That’s from changing population dynamics and more careful surveys of low-income families. For comparable populations, income has risen as you ought to expect. Consider the results for “Worked Full Time, Year Round, Both Sexes, White”… For 1999 income: Persons in this group: 81.7 million Mean income of all persons in this …


Letter Re: Some First Hand Experience with Mass Inflation

Dear Mr. Rawles, I lived in Romania in 1993 and 1994 at the height of runaway inflation. It was not a pretty time to see the land of Count Dracula! A meal that cost 5 Lei in 1990, was 2500 Lei in 1993. My rent was paid in Deutsche Marks, as the landlord would not take Romanian currency. However, I had to stay three days in Bucharest prior to my departure for home. I paid nearly 4 Million Romanian Lei for the room, and it was crummy and shabby to boot! By that time, I think the Lei to Dollar …