Category: Economics & Investing

I got another one of those “when are stock and real estate prices going to bottom?” question e-mails, this time from reader G.R.P.. He was anxious that both the value of his house (in coastal southern California!) and his 401(k) have both already lost about half their value. The plain truth is that we are nowhere near the bottom. The economy won’t turn around until a lot of malinvestment and toxic debt gets worked out of the system. And markets won’t re-liquidify until after asset values get close to a bottom. For now, prices are still marked to mystery rather …

Alyce at The Motley Fool Goes Doomer: The Four Things You Need. (Thanks to Lynne W. for the link.) Items from The Economatrix: Credit Union Collapse Signals Depth of Financial Crisis On Wall Street, Talk of Trust and Civil War Marc Faber: It Will All End in Disaster Economic Dirty Bo Goes Off in NY In NY, a Second, Silent 9-1-1 Accidents Can Happen (The Mogambo Guru) The End Game Approaches Ron Paul: Bankruptcy is Economic Stimulus  

Gerald Celente Predicts Economic Armageddon by 2012. (A hat tip to Reader P.D. for the link.) OBTW, take it as a warning sign if you hear that Gerald Celente has moved from New York to say… Wyoming. From D.V.: Goldman Sachs’s Cohen Predicts More Bad News on Banks Items from The Economatrix: Our New National Currency: The US Fuffle IBM to Cut 5,000 US-based Jobs, Shift Work to Emerging Markets Wall Street Turns Cautious But Logs Third Weekly Advance Failed Bank: Omni National Bank, Atlanta Georgia Lendman: Obama’s Latest “No Banker Left Behind” Scheme “Nobody can be confident that the …

HPD sent this: Geithner plan will rob American taxpayers: Stiglitz Kevin A. recommended a piece by Bill Fleckenstein over at The Silver Bear Café: Got gold? You’re right on the money. Here is a quote: “We are attempting to print our way to prosperity. That can’t be done, any more than we could speculate our way to prosperity during the stock bubble or borrow our way to prosperity in the real-estate/credit bubble.” Jeff K. suggested: Bernanke Inserts Gun in Mouth. Jeff’s comment: “We disagree on inflation versus deflation [in the next few years], but one must take notice when a …

From Joan M.: Sen. Gregg Criticizes ‘Banana Republic’ Budget Proposal A quote: “The ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee warned on Monday that President Obama’s budget proposal will lead to unsustainable debt levels and send the country on a fiscal path resembling that of a ‘banana republic….called the deficit estimates attached to the budget plan “staggering,” and he warned that such deficits would trigger a national debt that amounts to “running your country into the ground.’” MVR sent this interesting perspective on the US Dollar and debt from Thailand: The real US financial crisis has yet to begin G.G. …

Lisa forwarded us the link to the PDF of a new think tank report: Manning the barricades: Who’s at risk as deepening economic distress foments social unrest SurvivalMama sent a great Schumeresque snippet from Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality With Both Hands blog: Q: What if markets never recover, the assets are not fundamentally undervalued, and even when held to maturity the government doesn’t make back its money? A: Then we have worse things to worry about than government losses on TARP-program money–for we are then in a world in which the only things that have value are bottled water, sewing …

Do you remember how back in 2007 I described commercial real estate as “the other shoe to drop..”? Matt B. sent this article on how it is indeed collapsing. “Elfin” spotted this: Fed Planning Inflationary Dollar Destroying 15-Fold Increase in US Monetary Base – and then things really go bad! G.G. alerted us to the new video and and audio clips of Peter Schiff speaking at the 2009 Austrian Scholar’s Conference: “Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One”. G.G. notes: “This is very entertaining. Listen closely to last 15 or so minutes for Schiff’s description of what he sees …

I spotted this linked at Drudge: White House Agenda on Track Despite Worsening Deficits. ($9.3 trillion in deficits projected!) Just as I warned, the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) is becoming uncontrollably self-perpetuating. (“If Industry X is deemed worthy, then why not Industries Y and Z?” Down and down we’ll go–down the road to ruin.) From reader HPD: GM, Chrysler May Need Additional Aid, Rattner Says MVR flagged this commentary from the National Post‘s Terence Corcoran: Is this the end of America? “N” mention a piece by Simit Patel, over at the Seeking Alpha blog: Fed Intervention, Market Response Confirm: …

U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar. (Kudos to Laura H. for the link.) The Appenzell Daily Bell reports: AIG world of $1.6 trillion derivatives trouble England may be unable to sell all of its bonds: UK overhauls debt issuance protocol. In related news: Dollar falls sharply on Fed statement. And, meanwhile in Japan: BoJ ramps up purchase of government bonds. Sounds like a race to the bottom, to me. (Thanks to G.G. for all three of those links.) Three More Banks Go Down: Teambank, Paola, Kansas; Colorado National Bank, Colorado Springs, Colorado; FirstCity Bank, Stockbridge, Georgia. And in the …

G.G. flagged this editorial at US News & World Report: Obama’s Out of Control Spending Dwarfs the Wasted AIG Bailout Money Markku sent this: For Sale: The $100 House Items from The Economatrix: WH: Agenda on Track Despite Worsening Deficits Growing Transatlantic Tensions on Eve of G20 Summit UK Car Production Slumps 60% Sacramento Tent City to Be Relocated US is Already Bankrupt China Backs Russia’s Call to Replace Dollar as Reserve Joel Skousen: AIG Bonus Outrage–How Insiders Will Defuse It (Excerpt) Treasury Throws $5 Billion to Auto Suppliers The Mother of All Depressions (MOAD) “The meeting of the G20 …

A recent headline grabbed my attention. It mention the “bottoming” or real estate price. That made me chuckle, because we are nowhere near the bottom yet. I did some searching, and I found a chart posted last year at the Calculated Risk blog. If you thought the subprime mortgages caused a lot of foreclosures, just wait until the Option-ARM resets peak in 2011. Methinks that things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. Reader HPD mentioned this at Forbes that quotes Peter Schiff: CPI Rises Despite U.S. Recession GG sent this: Merkel adviser warns US on …

John in Ohio forwarded this: At G20, Kremlin to Pitch New Currency. JWR’s Comment: Gee, so they propose replacing numerous un-backed fiat currencies (with free-floating values) with a single un-backed fiat currency of a “fixed” (constantly inflating) value. Cui bono? As I’ve written before: inflation is a hidden form of taxation. How do I vote for a genuine specie-backed currency? Only with a trip to my local coin shop or arms bazaar. Vote with your wallet. For our own protection, get out of paper currencies and into tangibles! From The Appenzell Daily Bell: Banks pop on talk of [FASB] accounting …