Three Letters Re: America’s Sovereign Debt Credit Rating and Interest Rate Imponderables

Mr. Rawles, Thanks for the blog and your books.  I have given several copies of “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It” away as gifts. I consider it a network fishing lure of sorts, to find like-minded people. To the point: Another set of dominoes to fall, if the US credit rating is reduced from AAA many pensions will not be able to hold US Treasury bonds, as their bylaws or rules state that they must hold AAA paper.  Unless they find a loophole or change their rules it will be a cascade spiral down. …




Economics and Investing:

Thursday’s headlines were full of deep drama economic news, including a market crash in Italy that looked like La fine del mondo come lo conosciamomeowner. Concurrently, the recent drop in silver has widened the silver-to-gold ratio 42.4-to-1. (Meaning: The cost of one ounce of gold currently equals just over 42 ounces of silver.) So this a great time to go to your local coin shop and perform a ratio trade: Ask them to swap your 1-ounce gold coins into bullion silver coins. (For readers in the U.S., pre-1965 mint date 90% silver Quarters are recommended.) Even though you’ll have to …




America’s Sovereign Debt Credit Rating and Interest Rate Imponderables

I’m frequently asked what is going to happen when the U.S. Treasury’s AAA credit rating is downgraded. First, consider this news article: Moody’s Affirms U.S. Rating, Warns of Downgrade. Here are my predictions, in a nutshell: We can expect continued credit market volatility. The recent debt limit increase did nothing to correct the basic problem. The U. S. government spends more than it takes in, so its residual payments are growing, inexorably. As this insanity continues, at some point U.S. Treasury paper will lose its AAA luster. that will initiate a very ugly chain of events that will play out …




Economics and Investing:

Glenn Beck puts the Federal debt cap deal in prepper terms. SurvivalBlog’s G.G. sent several links: ‘The Bear Market Is Starting’: Marc Faber Europe on Brink of ‘Major Financial Collapse’: Guggenheim CIO Bank run! Greece in panic as it faces change of Homeric proportions Items from The Economatrix: Stocks Now Down For The Year As Economic Concerns Grow Hoarding Of Physical Gold, Voracious Global Demand To Produce Undeliverable Gold Futures, Parabolic Move To $2700-$3000/Oz. Global Manufacturing Collapses To Worst Levels Since Mid-2009, Markets “Shrug It Off” Bachmann:  Debt Limit Deal Means “We Embrace Being Greece”




Economics and Investing:

Ol’ Remus talks economic collapse: We have arrived. He may be right. The debt-limit compromise in congress was a travesty. Tuesday’s drop in the Dow and the jump in gold signal that market senses some big changes in the near future. If the Federal credit rating slips below AAA, interest rates will rise, and there will be a nasty cascade of concommitant events. Buckle up! F.G. flagged this: Metal Detectors Hit the Jackpot J.J.G. sent a link to piece by Ann Barnhardt: We The Stupid. Real estate debacle: More than two years worth of shadow inventory overhang. That Which Is …




Economics and Investing:

Michael Panzner, over at his excellent Financial Armageddon blog presents some graphics with sobering statistics on personal debt in America. Chris G. suggested this photo essay on failed currencies: A Thousand Pictures Is Worth One Word R.J.K. sent: Three Reasons to Stick With Gold & Silver J.B.G. mentioned: Rhode Island’s Central Falls files for bankruptcy An interesting piece by Lorimer Wilson: July Update: Gold & Silver Warrants Index (GSWI) Several links courtesy of regular contributor John R.: When a Cut is Not a Cut (Dr. Ron Paul) Martin W. Armstrong: Uncle Sam – Dead Broke Who Can Take This Country …




Economics and Investing:

Last week, just before everyone’s attention was diverted to a Mall Ninja toting a tarted-up Mini-14 in Norway, news came of $16 Trillion Dollars that was loaned by the Federal Reserve to prop up the banksters–mostly in Europe. This is an aggregate figure on loans over the course of two years, and most of it was paid back, but it is still staggering. Its a good thing that we have experts like Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke in charge. Otherwise there might be inflation or somethun’… Oh, and meanwhile, the Congresscritters are quibbling about how they can “trim” $1 trillion …




Letter Re: Alabama County Provides Microcosmic Preview of a Larger Bankruptcy

Dear Mr. Rawles — Here is a link to a story in this morning’s New York Times about Jefferson County, Alabama. It seems to be a microcosm of what the whole country faces as the threat of Federal default becomes real. The reporter says, “There are lessons for everyone here, and they are all painful: lessons for those who are not concerned about the prospect of mounting debt, for those who insist that steep cuts can be relatively painless, for those who think the bill for big spending can safely be put off into the future, for those who have …




Economics and Investing:

In his latest subscribers-only newsletter, veteran market analyst Porter Stansberry describes a U.S. sovereign debt downgrade as “inevitable”. JWR’s comments: Make your plans with the assumption that there will be a rating downgrade by all of the credit ratings agencies. The current AAA rating for U.S. paper is just a convenient fiction. Obviously a debt downgrade will mean higher interest rates. This will in turn ratchet down the U.S. economy in general and the residential and commercial real estate markets in particular. This will delay any recovery for many years. Plan on a riding through a depression that could last …




Economics and Investing:

Kevin K. sent this: The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade Placed Against The United States. (I suspect it might have been György Soros, et al. Oh, and I heard that Soros just bowed out of hedge fund management, except for his family’s own little $14 billion nestegg.) W.D.V. suggested this: How America Could Collapse It’s not the default, it’s the downgrade. (Thanks to Bill in Colorado for the link.) Muddying the Muddy Waters. Items from The Economatrix: Greece Suffers New Credit Downgrade The Kabuki Theater Of America’s Debt Ceiling The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade Placed Against The U.S. The World According …




Economics and Investing:

More Shrugging: Alabama coal mine owner Ronnie Bryant became so exasperated by over-regulation that he declared: I’m quitting.” (BTW, I just added this article link to my American Redoubt page.) Here’s a dip in spot silver, just like I mentioned. Buy on the dip days! Jeff B. sent this: Proposed road rules for farmers anger some. Note that this newspaper article comes from Montana, where in 2009 they enacted a gun law that amplifies the 10 Amendment. Predictably, Federal legislators want to deem purely intrastate commerce somehow interstate. That is utter nonsense. It is high time for the Supreme Court …




Economics and Investing:

Check Out This Industry Catalog and Price Sheet for FABRICATED Foreclosure Documents. (Thanks to Jeff B. for the link.) John R. recommended this: The Dollar, Gold And The Quality Of Money F.V. sent a link to some commentary by Stephen Hadley: Solve the Next Crisis Before it Happens. Slate asks: Are We Broke Yet? This article has a couple of great graphs. (A hat tip to Yishai for the link.) Items from The Economatrix: White House Veto Threat on Debt Sends Stocks Lower Deal Or No Deal?  US Downgrade Looking Likely White House Privately Telling Banks US Won’t Default Greek …




Economics and Investing:

In case you missed it, spot gold touched $1,620 per ounce yesterday, and silver got to $40.91. I’m glad that so many SurvivalBlog readers took my advice and bought silver back in 2005 when it was under $7.25 per ounce. For those that didn’t: There is still the chance to buy on the dip days, since the bull market is likely to continue for several more years. The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) continues to grow: FHA May Be Next in Line for Bailout: Delisle and Papagianis Dow-to-Gold and Greece-to-Gold The American Thinker asks: Is Your IRA Going To Be …




Economics and Investing:

Chris D. suggested this: Fed’s $16 Trillion Dollar Secret Slush Fund Props Up Our Way Of Life. The enormity of this secret bailout is staggering. The math on this is pretty simple: If you double the money supply, what can you expect to happen to the purchasing power of the currency? Hmmmm? Get ready for inflation and higher gold prices.The National Inflation Association (NIA) reports:” Currently, the U.S. ‘officially’ has 261 Million ounces of gold. If U.S. money-$13.5 Trillion in M3- were backed by “U.S. gold”, there would be over $51,724 Dollars for every one ounce of gold.” (So, after …




Economics and Investing:

The U.S. economy is now spinning out of control. It is now apparent that the 2008 credit crisis was never resolved. Rather, it was simply postponed, by creating $16 trillion out of thin air. With all that cash pumped into the system, a few people are now singing Once In A Lifetime, but most are singing the Hard Times Blues, or even Are They Gonna Make us Outlaws Again? A recent piece by Tyler Durden: EU Debt Restructuring Leads to Bailout Euphoria / Silver to Double to $100 Say Citigroup. Tyler notes: “…it is very unusual to see such a …