Triggers, Tipping Points, and Black Swans, by Coast Ranger

Letting Others Know The Status Quo Won’t Hold

The purpose of this contribution is to indicate how one might approach letting others know that the status quo will not hold. It is based upon my own efforts.

There is a tendency for people to focus upon “big picture” or mass hysteria items, like North Korea and now Nazis, that might impact the future to the exclusion of the many other things that are less transparent or obvious but still extremely important. The following list of triggers, tipping points, and black swans is based upon a handout or a lecture I gave at my local Grange. I am my Grange’s lecturer, which is one of the elected offices.

With the exception of a few items below, all of the items are concerns raised by other writers and are readily available on the Internet. However, it is important to use the right search engine, given the recent changes in algorithms to prevent “fake news”. The Grangers have also been told, “Don’t trust MSM.”

Probability of Possible Societal Upheaval Occurrence

It would be interesting to assign probabilities of their possible occurrence, but that obviously is unrealistic. Rather, what should be obvious is that even small individual probabilities add up to a very high probability that some sort of societal upheaval is baked in.

The idea that things are “baked in” is of utmost importance! Quite simply, there will be no way to defuse what is coming – it is a predicament with no answers. The only issue will be when and how badly society will be impacted and there is no guide to help you. Reviewing history and Strauss and Howe’s book The Fourth Turning might help, but things usually go in unanticipated and random ways.

Lecture At the Grange

I did give a lecture some time ago about the Fourth Turning theory. In the case of my Grange, I have suggested that they look at what they see as both their best case and worst case and plan from there; forget about shades of gray. They were told, “It’s all up to you and no one else.”

I also told them that they should prioritize their needs, then do those they could afford right now, and to develop workarounds for the remainder and do them when they could. I emphasized needed medications and the necessity of finding available alternatives. Now, having been around preparedness for a long time I know only a couple of them will actually do anything.

List of Concerns

The list below is fairly comprehensive, some might say excessive, but some concerns probably have been neglected. No doubt some will say that some of the items listed are stupid. My response is, it’s your future so pick and chose only those you know are important. To keep this article to less than a book, I make no attempt to explain why any of these might be important except for one: I’m in the Emerald Triangle, and cannabis is a major issue/business here. Hopefully, you are already up to date on the majority of the other items or can do a search for them.

They are in no particular order of importance because it is impossible to know which ones will start it off. When it hits the fan, it is likely to be a cascading combination of several of these as complexity unravels plus the current rampant systemic fragility. Things can go to pot in a day or week.

Financial

• Stock crash
• Bond crash
• Trade/currency wars
• Dollar loses reserve currency status
• Pensions are reduced or can’t be paid
• Social Security privatized
• Hyperinflation/Deflation
• Total financial collapse – think bartering
• Great Depressions 2.0
• “Nationalization of the economy”
• Control of cash transactions
• War on cash
• Elimination of cash for digital “money”
• Disposable income drops even more
• Debt in all sectors
• Bank runs/bank failures
• Interest rates go through the roof
• Housing prices crash but nothing sells
• Inequality
• The standard of living tanks
• Widespread personal bankruptcies
• Government and business bankruptcies
• Technology/AI/robotics displace workers
• Fiat money
• Negative interest rates

Health

• Unaffordable/unavailable health care
• Pandemic
• Unaffordable/unavailable medicines
• New diseases

Governance

• WW III
• Russia
• North Korea/Iran
• EU collapse
• Gulf/Balkans
• Growth of the central state
• Martial law
• Identity politics
• Civil War 2.0
• Impeachment
• Dictatorship – military or some other kind
• Needed programs eliminated
• Government confiscation of personal property for its use – think food and alternative energy equipment
• Constitutional Convention
• Propaganda
• Unequal application of laws
• Large-scale riots
• Breakup of U.S.

Food

• New fungal disease wipes out grains
• Climate change/drought/storms/floods
• Can’t import many foods not produced here
• Fish stocks totally depleted for commercial use
• Regulations banning private gardens
• Over population

Energy

• Fuel and/or electrical prices double or triple
• Fuel/electrical availability for individuals and business is no longer assured 24/7
• An EMP or CME shuts down the grid

Communications

• Internet sites are licensed
• Posters are licensed
• Posters must use real names
• Alternative news shut down
• All communications recorded by the government
• News sources can only present government approved content.

Transportation

• Many roads, including local, become toll roads
• Trucks stop running or few deliveries

Natural Disasters

• The “Big One” on the west coast
• New Madrid earthquake
• Hurricane(s)
• Wild fires
• Nuclear reactor/spent fuel
• Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
• Volcanic eruption

Sabotage/Cyber Warfare

• Nuclear reactors
• The grid
• Banks
• Hospitals
• DOD
• Trains

Cannabis

• No more mom and pop growers
• Rural property values free-fall
• No cannabis jobs

Privacy

• Mandatory national or global ID card
• All personal information in a data base(s)
• Internet of Things
• Smart electrical meters
• Biometrics
• Drones
• Stingray
• Social media
• Micro-chipping

Net Energy

• Economy dies as ERoEI (energy returned for energy invested) falls to <5:1. Some say <10:1.

First Amendment

• Free speech semi-repudiated if anti-government
• Anything not PC is shouted down
• Private video and drones banned; LEO, government, private property

Weapons Confiscation

• Firearms
• Excessive firearms and ammo taxes
• Armor

Education

• Further reductions in emphasis on analysis/“critical thinking”
• College debt
• Useless majors

Race/Ethnic/Religious/Ideological Differences

• Violence

Discussion

Thousands of articles have been written bemoaning the fact that the general populace is oblivious to most of the items mentioned above or are concerned about relatively minor things, if they are concerned at all. Some writers say it is normalcy bias (believing things will always stay as they are); others say it is cognitive dissonance (believing two opposing things at the same time). The truth is no one knows why. I think my wife represents many people. She says, “You’ve talked about this stuff for years and nothing has happened.” She simply rejects the possibility that the future will be radically different – confirmation bias.

However, none of this should be surprising. Consider the people who live in known flood prone areas who do nothing. I once lived in a yacht basin on a river that periodically flooded. Everyone, including us, did nothing to prepare. It was just accepted. So, why should we expect anything different regarding the above concerns?

What Do You Do?

So, what do you do? We all know the “magic” words regarding collapse. I would suggest throwing a few of them out during general discussions with others in order to see/hear their response. In my little boondocks town, it could be to someone standing in the checkout line you know, at the post office when you say hello, (and, yes, we all say “hi” to one another even if we don’t know them), or at a meeting.

Have A Handout

I always have a handout for my “lectures” and, interestingly, the one with the above list had the most impact on the members. This is in spite of the fact that I had generally covered this topic before. I think it was because the list is so long and covers so many areas. Therefore, you might want to consider printing it out to hand out to friends/acquaintances.

Since I’ve spent the last forty plus years in the boondocks, my examples may not be directly applicable to urban areas. Yet, the real deal is people talking to people. Everyone knows their neighbors and workmates and, likely, belongs to some kind of organization giving you the opportunity to broach the future. You just have to try. And, yes, I grew up in and used to live in an urban area way back when.

Set Up A Discussion Group

At my Grange, we will be voting to set up a discussion group for those who are concerned rather than taking meeting time and boring most of the members. Having a separate group would also mean that OPSEC would be easier to maintain. My feeling is this may turn into a mutual assistance group (MAG). But, I’ll have to wait and see.

Use An Event To Bring People Together

Another way is to use an event to bring people together. About nine years ago, we had a major wildfire of over 8,000 acres in my area. My wife and I called the neighbors to review it at a BBQ, when it was controlled. We continued holding it at our house for eight years, and now someone else has taken over. Since we (there are about 30 people in the area) are spread out over several square miles, this is a chance to see each other and catch-up on news as well as meeting any newcomers. My wife and I provide a parcel map showing all the parcels and the current names, phone numbers, email addresses, and parcel size for each owner.

Put On A Presentation

Another local thing I will be doing is to put on a presentation with a friend at our local farmers market at the gravel pit. (I’m throwing the gravel pit in there for city people, so they know it’s really the boondocks) up the dirt/gravel county road about four miles. It won’t be anything fancy. We’ll put up a table with a low key sign and some handouts but no pontification. But, if they show an interest, we’re loaded for bear! Hopefully, enough will show an interest so they can establish their own group up the road from me.

So, if you have taken the Red Pill as in the movie the Matrix and are frustrated that few listen, I hope this provides some practical ideas for involving others. Just like prepping, never stop making the effort.

See Also:

• The Likelihood of Man-Made Disaster, by William Crosby Prentice

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

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Round 72 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.