E-Mail 'Triggers, Tipping Points, and Black Swans, by Coast Ranger' To A Friend

Email a copy of 'Triggers, Tipping Points, and Black Swans, by Coast Ranger' to a friend

* Required Field

Separate multiple entries with a comma. Maximum 5 entries.

Separate multiple entries with a comma. Maximum 5 entries.

E-Mail Image Verification

Loading ... Loading ...


  1. This was a tough article to read but I thank the author for putting together that list of “things for which we prep”.

    Most people (IMO) in my suburban community will not want to discuss this. A few, mostly in our prepper group, will be able to take something useful from it.

  2. Coast Ranger:
    A lot of what you mention has come and gone with the crash in 08 and the socialist Obama admin handling of it all. “gone” refers to an event’s status as new. Many still plague us. A real threat is the effort on the part of Liberal Progressive institutions and Black Lives Matter in particular to reduce or eliminate the proactive policing started in the 1990’s in NY and spread to the rest of the US that reduced the incidence of crime in the US by 2/3rds. Gangs are not just in urban areas and lurk under every rock even in Podunk USA. There are some great articles in the SB archive that can equip you to identify gang members. They are just waiting for the police to back off. YOYO will be the place we find ourselves.

  3. There are so many things which can destroy our society … but I can’t worry about them all. I am a believer so I study the scriptures and try to be as near self reliant as possible. In the end, none of us will escape temporal death; but people don’t want to be warned nor will the proud repent.

  4. Thank you for a very informative article. Given your list of concerns, it would be extremely difficult to assign probabilities of their possible occurrence. I have been working on a simpler version to assess the risk. As a retired military member, I look at those ‘what if’ scenarios in various ways: most likely, most dangerous, natural disaster, and man-made catastrophe. The classic definition of risk is the probability of occurrence of an unwanted event multiplied by the consequence (loss) of the event. Given this definition, I developed a table to quantify the risk. For likelihood, I used a scale from 0 to 1, with 1 being imminently likely. For consequence, I used a scale of 1 to 100, with 100 being deathly consequence with no chance of recovery:

    Activity Likely x Consequence = Prob Rank
    Tornado/Storm .15 35 5.25 2
    Earthquake .03 50 1.5 4
    Asteroid .01 99 .99 5
    Riots .01 10 .01 6
    US Implodes .1 90 9 1
    Nuclear War .05 99 4.95 3

    This is applicable to my situation in my location at this time. So, I plan for the number 1 ranking first, where lawlessness occurs for any reason, including those ranked 2 to 6.

    Is this accurate? Probably not, but it gives me a place to start. This also affects how I plan, shelter locations and types, amount of supplies, cache options, alliances for survival and more. If I ever finish the article I am writing I will submit it for peer review.

  5. I appreciate the authors efforts, but I’m just not convinced that the cannabis items listed belong. When the S hits the F, my access to cannabis will hardly be a life-threatening concern. This guy seems to be proselytizing for drug use.

    1. Cannabis has a true unappreciated potential;the flowers are medically useful,the seeds are some of the most nutritional foods availble,the fiber is some of the best availble,the oil is useful not only for cooking but as a chemical “feed stock” for many processes and products. These are some of the reasons for the outlawing of it,to promote the petrochemical industry,it was also one of the main drivers of the War of 1812,to cut US off from buying Russian hemp fiber cloth,rope and other goods(turpentine) that undercut the British monopolies and banks

      1. All that is nifty, but of only very marginal value as a trigger for the S to hit the F. Also, during SHTF, there are a lot more valuable items/skills to have than rolling a fat one. Why conflate something really important, like a nuclear war, financial collapse, or grid down with something so bizarre as smoking reefer?

    2. I believe his point was that if you live in the green triangle and there was a big change in cannabis law or production it could greatly effect property values and communities. Whether you grow or not if you live in an area that does it’s effecting you

  6. CoastRanger,
    I was born and raised in Butte County and spent a greT of my youth in the “EmeraldTriangle”. Your article is extremely well written, and spot on the diagnosis, wish I could have attended your Grange lecture! Well down, keep it up, “The truth NEVER needs a defense!”

  7. I would add UNDERPOPULATION to the list. Virtually all Americans rely on the taxpayer for income in old age, and the U.S. is just barely at sustainable population rate. And political viewpoints, like religious ones, are most effectively passed down through families. We need to HAVE babies. Also … rural areas have become so de-populated, older folks there have to drive more than an hour for anything beyond basic healthcare, and the fewer people living there, the fewer service available in the future.

  8. The ranking of risk and probability is a good strategy.
    Many on the list are at odds with others on the list.

    In reality the list is short for massive global events.
    1. World War III
    2. Massive EMP from the Sun frying all nation’s infrastructure
    3. Nuclear exchange with North Korea and Iran but short of World War III

    The currency wars or trade wars will be protracted events and like hurricanes will have lead time.
    However if currency wars get out of hand and crash a nation’s currency hot wars follow- See number 1. WWIII.

    Anyway, the major global events of 1 and 2 are extinction levels for all purposes. The survivors might live for a few months to a few years but it will be brutal existence.

    I plan for the probably but non global events. It’s cheaper and better use of limited resources

    I also trust Scripture and it’s clear how the End Times develop.

    1. You forgot the asteroid,even a small one into a population center is a game changer,large one is extinction event. Pandemic/epidemic/biowarfare should of made the cut too.

  9. I learned from your list, and your observations from over the years. I got a chuckle, however, in the item under Governance. ‘Marital law’ — you mean like, who can marry whom? No, I know you meant ‘Martial law’ 😉 It is hard to maintain an intense focus on preparedness, but reading your article renews my focus. Thanks!

  10. He mentions “The Fourth Turning” What they explain as cycles. These are the stages of a currency/investment cycle they don’t tell us about. We are ending our first. They will never go beyond 125 years like they’re planned. They seem to be closer to eighty to a hundred years.. Give or take a few years. Someone with IMF explained the cycles to me. I think I’ll read the book and see if the authors make the correlation..

  11. Romans 8:38-39King James Version (KJV)

    38 For I am persuaded, that neither death, nor life, nor angels, nor principalities, nor powers, nor things present, nor things to come,

    39 Nor height, nor depth, nor any other creature, shall be able to separate us from the love of God, which is in Christ Jesus our Lord.

  12. Forget about the hurricanes having “lead times”. Hurricane Harvey overwhelmed local authorities. The local media kept reporting that officials were saying to “shelter in place”. The result was that tens of thousands of people were stranded in their homes, some with 8 feet of water. Thousands of volunteers responded with their personal boats to help with the rescues. The cities on the Gulf Coast from Orange, to Vidor, to Beaumont, to Houston became islands with boat or air access only. The City of Beaumont lost its potable water supply (120,000 people) because its water system was completely submerged. This was predicted to be a “rain event” which ended setting a new record for 50 inches during Harvey. Officials are still overwhelmed with debris removal and restoration of services. PREPARE! The life you save may be your own. If you depend on the actions of other people to save you, you may die. We are living in a new “time” now.

  13. Big Mike, hurricane Harry took a week to make landfall.
    That is plenty of time to get out of dodge.
    Why people keep rebuilding in these flood zones is insane. And they are rebuilding a copy of what they had previously with no thought of elevating the home above flood level.
    Just nuts.

    Lastly, I would not risk my life on the local authorities telling people to shelter in place.
    What a stupid thing to do.

Comments are closed.