North Korea, Scenario 2
The second North Korean scenario involves China and potentially Russia. While the threat of mutually assured destruction makes a direct engagement with Russia or China unlikely, proxy wars have often been occurring. If China or Russia were to back North Korea, then it could benefit all parties against the U.S.
China and the U.S. have been political adversaries for many years, but have also been economic partners in many respects. Recent competition has escalated, despite maintaining simultaneous partnerships. China has purchased vast amounts of U.S. debt and produces exports for the U.S.. But President Trump has been accused of starting a trade war with China, causing distrust on both sides.
In the past ten years, Russia has begun to reassert their power in the former Soviet states, including Georgia and the Ukraine. They have seized territory, claiming that local population desired to return to Russian rule. Russia has armed rebels in these countries, and reinforced troops in countries neighboring U.S. eastern European allies. This has begun a “new Cold War” between the superpowers.
China and Russia would both suffer from a collapse of the United States. Much of the world’s economy is dependent on the U.S. for trade and protection. A major collapse of the U.S. economy would cause a ripple effect that would collapse many other economies, eventually dramatically effecting Russia and China’s economies as well. Aside from the risk of retaliation, a surprise attack on the U.S., such as I have described, could negatively impact the world’s economies, including Russia’s and China’s.
However, if China and Russia were to properly prepare, such an attack could also benefit these two nations’ economies.Continue reading“The Current Nuclear Threat – Part 2, by John M.”