Economics & Investing For Preppers

This is my last Economics & Investing column post for calendar year 2019, so today I’m posting my 2020 recommendations:

Stocks:

Minimize. The unprecedented 11+ year U.S. economic expansion cannot continue indefinitely. So far, the banksters have kept “the everything bubble” expanding by means of artificially low interest rates. At some point in the near future, the bubble will deflate, and possibly pop spectacularly. Keep in mind that 2020 is a presidential election year. If The Powers That Be (TPTB) want to see President DJT ousted, then they can do so with an orchestrated crash. If they merely allow interest rates to revert to more normal levels, then that would probably be enough to accomplish that. All in all, 2020 is a good year to get out of all but a few very safe “Widows and Orphans” stocks. And even with those, you should set Stop Loss orders. Precious metals mining stocks look like they will continue to be poor performers in 2020. Presently, buying a mining stock in not a good way to invest in precious metals.

Precious Metals:

Hold. This may be a good opportunity to re-balance your personally-held portfolio, but it is certainly not a time to reduce it!  Your mileage may vary, but here is how I’ve allocated my personal metals portfolio for 2020:

  1. Silver: 80% (Mostly a mix of pre-1965 dimes and quarters, as well as some 1 ounce U.S. Mint Silver Eagles, and just a few serialized Engelhard 10 ounce bars.)
  2. Gold: 10% (I now have far more 1-ounce U.S. Mint Gold Eagles than I do numismatics.)
  3. Platinum: 10% (U.S. Mint Platinum Liberty 1/4-ounce and 1/2-ounce bullion coins)

Base Metals

Hold. I trust that you have all long since bought some boxes of nickels, at face value. Hang on to them. I also suggest closely watching the world supplies of cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel.  These are all key components of large batteries used for electric vehicles. If shortages of any of these loom up, then it would be a good time to invest in a few very carefully selected mining stocks. And, of these, nickel is compact enough to invest in, tangibly.Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — December 29, 2019

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Today is the birthday of inventor Charles Goodyear (1800–1860.)

This is also the birthday of actor Jude Law (born 1972.) You will remember him from Enemy at The Gates and Sky Captain.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 85 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The more than $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3,000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  3. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  4. A $300 purchase credit for any of the products from EMPShield.com
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  7. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Good2GoCo.com is providing a $400 purchase credit at regular prices for the prize winner’s choice of either Wise Foods or Augason long term storage foods, in stackable buckets.
  2. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  3. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 85 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Potential Food Shortages, by 3AD Scout

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I’d like to address the potential for food shortages. The producers of the YouTube channel “Six Acres” filmed some shelves at a Williston, North Dakota Walmart. The Six Acres footage was posted on December 12, 2019. The Six Acres YouTube video was on my suggested list so I took a look at it.

There has been much discussion about food shortages on various prepper blogs and other forums. I have watched and listened to some but obviously not all. But when watching the Six Acres video and comparing and contrasting with my trips to my own local Walmart here in Pennsylvania I have a theory.

Having worked in retail in my younger days, we were directed twice each shift to “front and face” which was a term to go into our area of responsibility and move product from the back of the shelf to the front of the shelf where product had been removed as customers picked it up. We also turned around product that had gotten moved so that the front of the product label was able to be seen by shoppers. What I saw in the video was the lack of this normal retail practice in several pictures. There was product but it was towards the back of the shelf. Many of the products were turned on their side or otherwise not placed orderly on the shelf. Has Walmart cut back on employees and/or have not made fronting and facing a priority? With North Dakota having an unemployment rate of 2.5%, Walmart may not be able to compete for workers against others who are paying higher wages.Continue reading“Potential Food Shortages, by 3AD Scout”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we feature an article that describes some secret military bases, such as Pine Gap, Australia. (Pictured.)

Mike Williamson: The Virginia Debacle, Summarized

Over at our own Michael Z. Williamson’s personal blog (The Sacred Cow Slaughterhouse), there is this:
The Virginia Debacle, Summarized (And Why You Should Buy More Guns). Here is a quote from Mike’s essay:

“I spent 19 of my 25 service years in the Guard. I don’t want to see either side of this.

This is why more and more counties are deciding to be “sanctuary” and totally sit this one out. Good for them.

If you’re willing to use military force and murder people over ownership of anything, we’re back to tar, feather, and lampposts.”

Secret Military Bases

Linked over at the great Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Exploring the Most Secretive Military Bases in the World: Area 51, Kasputin Yar, Porton Down, Floating China Bases, Pine Gap. Here is the article’s teaser opening paragraph:

“In a time when we are overloaded with information, it’s important to distinguish fact from fiction. We are here to verify some real-life military bases around the world. These bases have been shrouded in mystery and protected from the public eye for decades. At the same time, their locations and existence have been covered by the media for years or decades, so no top-secret military secrets are shared here, sorry! We’re simply here to separate the fact from the fiction for you, and perhaps stoke your imagination just a little bit.”Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“But speak thou the things which become sound doctrine:

That the aged men be sober, grave, temperate, sound in faith, in charity, in patience.

The aged women likewise, that they be in behaviour as becometh holiness, not false accusers, not given to much wine, teachers of good things;

That they may teach the young women to be sober, to love their husbands, to love their children,

To be discreet, chaste, keepers at home, good, obedient to their own husbands, that the word of God be not blasphemed.

Young men likewise exhort to be sober minded.

In all things shewing thyself a pattern of good works: in doctrine shewing uncorruptness, gravity, sincerity,

Sound speech, that cannot be condemned; that he that is of the contrary part may be ashamed, having no evil thing to say of you.

Exhort servants to be obedient unto their own masters, and to please them well in all things; not answering again;

Not purloining, but shewing all good fidelity; that they may adorn the doctrine of God our Saviour in all things.

For the grace of God that bringeth salvation hath appeared to all men,

Teaching us that, denying ungodliness and worldly lusts, we should live soberly, righteously, and godly, in this present world;

Looking for that blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ;

Who gave himself for us, that he might redeem us from all iniquity, and purify unto himself a peculiar people, zealous of good works.

These things speak, and exhort, and rebuke with all authority. Let no man despise thee.”  – Titus 2 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — December 28, 2019

December 28, 1793 is the day that Thomas Paine was arrested in France for treason. The charges against him were never fully detailed, but he was tried in absentia on December 26 and convicted. Best known as the author of Common Sense, he moved to Paris to be part of the French revolution. Initially welcomed, the tide soon turned against him, because he was opposed to the death penalty and the French revolutionaries were sending hundreds to the guillotine.

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Today, instead of another regular entry for Round 85 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest, we are presenting two short articles that are too brief to qualify to be part of the judging. Our thanks to the authors!

Joy Ahead, by ShepherdFarmerGeek

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We’ve often been encouraged to look forward to the “joys” of Heaven, the final Home to all who follow Yeshua the Messiah. And we’ve been told that this joy will help get us through the trials and struggles of life.

While my prepping efforts have been to not arrive there unnecessarily early, I still ponder what lies ahead. One day last week I considered this “joy” and wanted to share my brief thoughts. The joy of Heaven is:

  • The joy of recognition when we see our Creator and Redeemer face to face;
  • The joy of adventure, as we move into what next God has for us to do;
  • Joy of learning and discovering things new to us;
  • The joy of relationships, reconnecting with family and friends lost to death, now reunited;
  • The joy of beauty, reveling in the wonder of a world perfected, unfallen;
  • Joy from music and singing the great truths and themes of all the world;
  • Joy over the creativity that will bloom in us and others;
  • Amazing joy in our health – that our bodies no longer decline and wither and age and become ill and broken (and we don’t need medications anymore!).
  • And the joy that will doubtlessly come over us when we realize and we can no longer sin against God or others – that who we are has been purged of our propensity to fail.

“Weeping may endure for a night,
But joy comes in the morning.”

– Psalm 30:5

“…looking unto Jesus, the author and finisher of our faith, who for the joy that was set before Him endured the cross, despising the shame, and has sat down at the right hand of the throne of God.”

– Hebrews 12:2

Hard times ahead? Sure. But after that comes the Morning. Never forget. Never forget!

Trust God, and be prepared. We can do both.

Open Fire Primitive Cooking, by M.M.

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In part because I like to eat well, and in part because of my curiosity to learn and apply new skills, I taught myself to cook.  In recent years, I became passingly familiar with Central and South American cooking styles, and couldn’t help but connect some of these methods to the self-reliant folks among you.  Each method can be done over an open fire, can be scaled to feed a multitude, makes delicious food, and has a certain “wow factor” when you feed your friends.  I’ve used all these methods extensively for several years and they have been a great addition to my outdoor cooking gatherings with friends.  

An exceptional Chef, Francis Mallmann, has a number of outstanding books available on the subject of South American cooking and they are worth a read (I have no relation to Mr. Mallmann).  In addition, I’d point the reader to innumerable Youtube and web-based resources on these topics.  Many great images are available online for each of these items, and a picture is worth a thousand words.  

At any rate, if you like to eat, enjoy great food, might want to feed a whole troop of folks, and like to cook when the power is out, then read on.Continue reading“Open Fire Primitive Cooking, by M.M.”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

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To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year. Note that as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in the Comments. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

I’m still traveling. So most of today’s column will come from my darling wife, Avalanche Lily.

I’ve still been exercising daily. I’ve been averaging 15 miles a day on the bike. Yesterday, I logged 27 miles. That was my longest ride since I arrived here. With all of the Christmas goodies still scattered around the kitchen, it is a good thing that I’m getting so much exercise — or else I’d be gaining weight.

I’m planning to return to the ranch in the first week of January.

By the way, we are hoping that he new Archive USB Sticks will be orderable by around January 12th. Stay tuned.

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Thus hath the Lord God shewed unto me: and behold a basket of summer fruit.

And he said, Amos, what seest thou? And I said, A basket of summer fruit. Then said the Lord unto me, The end is come upon my people of Israel; I will not again pass by them any more.

And the songs of the temple shall be howlings in that day, saith the Lord God: there shall be many dead bodies in every place; they shall cast them forth with silence.

Hear this, O ye that swallow up the needy, even to make the poor of the land to fail,

Saying, When will the new moon be gone, that we may sell corn? and the sabbath, that we may set forth wheat, making the ephah small, and the shekel great, and falsifying the balances by deceit?

That we may buy the poor for silver, and the needy for a pair of shoes; yea, and sell the refuse of the wheat?

The Lord hath sworn by the excellency of Jacob, Surely I will never forget any of their works.

Shall not the land tremble for this, and every one mourn that dwelleth therein? and it shall rise up wholly as a flood; and it shall be cast out and drowned, as by the flood of Egypt.

And it shall come to pass in that day, saith the Lord God, that I will cause the sun to go down at noon, and I will darken the earth in the clear day:

And I will turn your feasts into mourning, and all your songs into lamentation; and I will bring up sackcloth upon all loins, and baldness upon every head; and I will make it as the mourning of an only son, and the end thereof as a bitter day.

Behold, the days come, saith the Lord God, that I will send a famine in the land, not a famine of bread, nor a thirst for water, but of hearing the words of the Lord:

And they shall wander from sea to sea, and from the north even to the east, they shall run to and fro to seek the word of the Lord, and shall not find it.

In that day shall the fair virgins and young men faint for thirst.

They that swear by the sin of Samaria, and say, Thy god, O Dan, liveth; and, The manner of Beersheba liveth; even they shall fall, and never rise up again.” – Amos 8 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — December 27, 2019

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On this day in 1979, in an attempt to stabilize the turbulent political situation in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union sent 75,000 troops to enforce the installation of Babrak Karmal as the new leader of the nation. The new government and the imposing Soviet presence, however, had little success in putting down anti-government rebels. Thus began nearly 10 years of an agonizing, destructive, and ultimately fruitless Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan. Death by a thousand cuts.

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Cabela’s (one of our affiliate advertisers) has started their annual clearance sale, with some items reduced 50%. That sale ends on January 8, 2020. Take a look!

 

Blowing Bubbles for Fun and Profit, by Gary Christenson

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Editor’s Note: This article by Gary Christenson of The Deviant Investor first appeared in the Miles Franklin blog, and is re-posted with permission.  It was selected by JWR — not solicited. Miles Franklin can be contacted at: 1-800-822-8080.

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Bubbles, like a cocaine high, are fun while they last. History confirms that bubbles and cocaine are enjoyable, because central banks blow many bubbles and the U.S. imports a large quantity of cocaine.

Bubbles are fun, but they extract a price. There is no free lunch.

Examples:

2019: The Everything Bubble.

It hasn’t crashed yet, but there are many bubble piercing objects on the horizon. Prepare for the implosion; it’s coming.

2008: The Housing Bubble.

Real estate mortgages, collateralized debt and other derivatives nearly crashed the global financial system. The official story claims emergency central banking measures saved it. But 8.7 million Americans lost their jobs, bankers foreclosed on 10 million American homes, and the DOJ prosecuted no bankers for fraud. Congress and The Fed saved Wall Street banks and bonuses…

The Fed showered $16 trillion (per the limited audit) in secret bailouts, loans, swaps and giveaways onto Wall Street and foreign banks. Another report (Wall Street on Parade) claims the total was $29 trillion. Regardless, a huge bailout worked once, so we could see a larger bailout when “the everything” bubble crashes. Debt (leverage) is larger than in 2008, and more sectors of the economy are dangerously inflated. The debt and credit monsters have grown.

2000: Internet Stocks Bubble.

The high-flying NASDAQ 100 soared from under 400 in 1994 to over 4,800 in 2000. Then it collapsed more than 80%. How many retirements and portfolios were devastated by investors arriving late to the casino? Most people failed to exit before the crash.

Blowing bubbles is profitable for Wall Street and the stock market, which is primarily owned by the upper few percent of the financial and political elite. The lower 90% have benefited little. Wages are higher but the cost of living has increased even more. Flawed (understated) government inflation statistics show the average wage earner lost ground in the last several decades. Real statistics would show larger losses. However, wealth increased for the upper 1%.

Continue reading“Blowing Bubbles for Fun and Profit, by Gary Christenson”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the corporate debt bubble. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

Allen Sykora: Palladium may lose some altitude but expected to remain at lofty heights

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Kitco: Asset allocation tips to prepare for more volatility in 2020

Economy & Finance:

Reader Mark J. was the first of several to send us this, at Zero Hedge: “Massive… Huge… Largest Ever”: Fed Will Flood Market With Gargantuan $500 Billion In Liquidity To Avoid Year-End Repo Crisis

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At Wolf Street: Is the Corporate-Debt Bubble Ripe Yet? An excerpt:

“In its Financial Stability Report, the Fed warns about the ballooning debts of non-financial businesses. These are businesses that are not lenders. Excluding lenders from the tally prevents double counting of debts, since lenders borrow money to lend money. So this is money that non-financial companies owe, and they range from mom-and-pop restaurants to Apple.

The Fed measures this debt in several ways. In absolute dollars, these debts have skyrocketed from record to record and have hit $18 trillion. And as a percent of GDP, these debts have reached historic highs. The Fed says that “the most rapid increases in debt are concentrated among the riskiest firms amid weak credit standards.”

So we’ve got historically high debt levels, especially among the most leveraged companies with negative cash flows, amid loosey-goosey underwriting standards.

And the Fed warns about, laments, and bemoans the speed of this debt pileup, with business debts jumping by 5.1% over the past 12 months, much faster than the economy grew.”

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”