Preparedness Notes for Friday — January 3, 2020

On this day, in 1521, Martin Luther – the father of the reformation and founder of Protestantism – was officially excommunicated by Pope Leo X from the Roman Catholic Church.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 86 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The more than $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3,000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from veteran-owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  3. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  4. A $300 purchase credit for any of the products from EMPShield.com
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  7. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Good2GoCo.com is providing a $400 purchase credit at regular prices for the prize winner’s choice of either Wise Foods or Augason long term storage foods, in stackable buckets.
  2. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  3. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 86 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Daily Habits for Happiness, by EBL

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My Dad has had a full and rewarding life. He was: An Eagle Scout, Camp Counselor for six years starting at age 14, a lifetime National Ski Patrolman, also starting at age 14, started eight successful small businesses in 30 years, holder of four US patents, member of the National Speakers Association, authored and published 15 books that sold in 22 countries… I could go on. But I think you will agree after reading what follows, he is a real “Value Added” kind of guy!

I recently wrote to my Dad and asked him to write down the best ‘Daily Habits’ that made him successful and happy. Here’s how I plan to use my Dad’s written response… the same way I hope you the reader will too.

I’ll use it for two reasons:
First, The Legacy- to pass down to my children.
Second, To share with the world.

Here are my Dad’s Daily Habits:

1. “ MAKE IT a Great Day !!”
My Dad does Not say… ever…, “ Have a Good Day”. He always says when ending a call or a personal visit, “Make it a Great Day.” Ask yourself: Who is responsible to make it a ‘Great Day’? YOU Are ! End your conversations with this phrase.

2..”Leave Your Campsite Better Than You Found It.”
My Dad learned this from his parents as a young camper. Substitute ‘Campsite’ for “Your World”, “Your Career”, “Your Church”, “Your Community”, etc. This advice builds legacies.

3. “Learn and Use Time Management Skills Daily.”
My Dad,who is now in his 80s, gets more done than anyone I have ever met! What is his secret? He always uses a Clipboard with a form to make a Weekly Plan, in advance of Every week! He writes down his plan on the single page form that includes a box for each of the seven days. (Yes, weekends too), along with a listing on the right side for all the “Projects To Be Completed This Week”. He starts planning, on paper, each week in the middle of the previous week. He includes Meetings & Appointments, etc. Then he keeps the Weekly Plan clipboard near him during every day and crosses out items as he finishes them. At the end of each week, he “Carries Forward” any items not finished in the current week. My Dad guarantees that this will result in much more being accomplished. It will for you, too!Continue reading“Daily Habits for Happiness, by EBL”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the heavy truck market, as an economic indicator. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

A fascinating piece by Lyn Alden, over at Gold-Eagle: Gold Price Forecast: A Weaker Dollar Is The Easiest Path To $2,000 Gold

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Gold Price Forecast: Gold To Rise On Fed Dollar Debasement

Economy & Finance:

My wife (Avalanche Lily) suggested this: 2020 FINANCIAL CRISIS — Has it started? The $500 Billion Dollar Question

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Is the Fed’s $3 Trillion in Loans to Trading Houses on Wall Street Legal? (Thanks to G.P. for the link.)

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2020 FINANCIAL CRISIS — Has it started? The $500 Billion Dollar Question

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At Wolf Street: Turmoil in the Heavy-Truck Market as Seen by a Truck Dealer. The piece begins:

“‘On our lots, there are no lookers for used sleepers, and we will sell new sleepers at a loss to clear them out, and new orders for sleepers have come to a stop,’ a heavy truck dealer who owns two stores with several franchises told me. The truck dealer was talking about the turmoil in the heavy-truck business, where orders for new Class-8 trucks have collapsed by as much as 80% year-over-year…”

Reader H.L. sent this: Americans Are Back To Using Their Home Prices As ATMs: Most Cash Pulled Out in 12 Years!

Sweden: First Central Bank Exits Negative Interest Rates.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“A minority is powerless while it conforms to the majority; it is not even a minority then; but it is irresistible when it clogs by its whole weight. If the alternative is to keep all just men in prison, or give up war and slavery, the State will not hesitate which to choose. If a thousand men were not to pay their tax bills this year, that would not be a violent and bloody measure, as it would be to pay them, and enable the State to commit violence and shed innocent blood. This is, in fact, the definition of a peaceable revolution, if any such is possible.” – Henry David Thoreau, Civil Disobedience

A Cowgirl’s Night Out, by Avalanche Lily

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On a moonless night, a few nights ago, I was concerned about the safety of our newborn calf, so I decided to camp out with our cows and horses.  In doing so, I learned a few things about both livestock behavior and my night vision.

To begin, this past Friday morning, I went out to feed the animals and saw that my Matriarch cow had not shown up.  I called and called and called her.  I heard her mooing at a low volume.  I went looking for her and found her on the edge of the woods next to the driveway with a newborn calf, just barely standing and very wobbly.  I watched a few moments until, it nursed.  To see the rest of this part of the story please go back and read, “The Editor’s Prepping Progress” column, for last week.

I made two attempts on Friday to get mama and babe into the corrals for safety from predators and easy access for de-horning in a few days, but was unsuccessful.  So I decided to spend the night out with them to add to the protection level.

So about ten o’clock on Friday evening I began to prepare to go outside. I wasn’t sure if I’d spend the whole night out with them or just a few hours.  I was a little bit nervous about it. The temperature was about 34 degrees Fahrenheit and was expected to get down to 24 degrees Fahrenheit with about two inches of snow on the ground in the open areas and only a trace under the trees.  I wore my LL Bean flannel lined jeans, a pair of socks, Bogger’s garden shoes, cotton-t-shirt, Cashmere sweater, Aran Irish wool sweater, my light puffy down jacket, fleece-lined hat and mittens.  I brought my inflatable sleeping pad, my ancient LL Bean qualophill 20 degree sleeping bag (that washes very easily), a big MagLite flashlight, water bottle, and my .45 Glock Model 30.Continue reading“A Cowgirl’s Night Out, by Avalanche Lily”

Annual Reminder: The Ten Cent Challenge

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Each year, I only post one reminder, encouraging voluntary Ten Cent Challenge subscriptions, and this is it.

Hopefully, some readers appreciate the fact that SurvivalBlog is one of the last of the daily “Old School” blogs without any of these annoyances and intrusions:

  • Annoying pop-up ads
  • Opt-in pop-ups to generate e-mail lists
  • E-mail list spamming
  • Auto-playing media
  • Paid placement pseudo-articles
  • Instant surveys
  • “Are you sure you want to leave?” messages
  • Animated graphics or animated/blinking ads
  • “Top 10” slideshows
  • Cheesy stock photography
  • “Members-only” exclusives
  • Keyword stuffing
  • Sporadic posting

SurvivalBlog is not sporadic. I’ve only missed two days of posting in nearly 15 years, and those were just after my first wife passed away. And I have never stooped to the assorted marketing and data-mining trickery that has become so commonplace on the web. No, we are still truly Old School. And we will never sell your e-mail address. We don’t even maintain any e-mail lists for our own use.

Everything at SurvivalBlog–including the full archives–is available free of charge. And we certainly do not harass you with droning week-long PBS-style pledge drives.

Please keep in mind that to operate SurvivalBlog we have considerable expenses for bandwidth, web hosting, maintaining our backup server, software, and legal fees.

If you find that you get more than 10 cents worth of value per day in reading SurvivalBlog, then please donate 10 cents a day ($36.50 per year) to help cover the blog’s costs. And by the way, even with inflation, that suggested donation amount hasn’t changed since the blog’s inception, back in 2005.

There are several payment options including PayPal, cash, checks, booklets of “Forever” U.S. postage stamps, and even mailing us a few silver dimes or quarters. Many folks thoughtfully send some pre-1965 silver dimes or quarters taped to a piece of cardboard.

Only about 1% of readers are Ten Cent Challenge subscribers. Please join in, and do your bit. Your contributions are needed and greatly appreciated.

If sending your subscription by mail, then please use this address:

James Rawles
P.O. Box 303
Moyie Springs, Idaho 83845

Note that unless I have my Amazon Associates account suspended (like Claire Wolfe did), or my PayPal account suspended (like Joe Biggs and Laura Loomer did) then this post will be my only mention of the Ten Cent Challenge, in 2020. I won’t pester you.

Lastly, please consider other ways that you can help support SurvivalBlog. Even just placing links helps a lot. And if you sell food storage, communications, night vision, body armor, alternative energy, shooting, or other preparedness-related products or services, then please consider either advertising or becoming a writing contest prize donor. You’ll find the publicity beneficial to your business, as well!

Many Thanks!, – JWR

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we look at the announced issue of Tikka T3x Arctic rifles, in Canada.

Canadian Rangers to Get Tikka T3x Arctic Rifles

An interesting video from Bloke on the Range (a British ex-pat who lives in Switzerland): Tikka T3x Arctic / Canadian Rangers C19 Rifle, 7.62 / .308 Winchester. JWR’s Comment: I think Jeff Cooper must be smiling, up in heaven.

Using Your Vehicle In Self Defense

An Active Self Protection (ASP) video: Using Your Vehicle In Self Defense Is Almost Always A Great Option

Visualizing the Safe Retreat Locales

NASA – Earth at Night. Dozens of PDFs with high resolution (zoomable) photos. JWR’s Comment: My advice is to move to where you don’t see a lot of lights at night. There, your main concern will be four-legged predators–not the two-legged variety. (Thanks to Ol’ Remus, who linked to this in his Yer Ol’ Woodpile Report blog.)

100 Years of Immigration to The U.S., 1919 to 2019

I spotted this at Whatfinger.com: 100 Years of Immigration to The U.S., 1919 to 2019Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Antifa posers with fantasies of a Civil War II need to worry more. ATF says more than half of all rifles sold were scary semiauto carbines. Combine these so-called “assault rifles” with the current Big Thing for traditional bolt action rifles: shooting very small targets at very long distances, and with more powerful ammo. Then explain to the campus commandos they do this as a hobby, for fun.” – Ol’ Remus, in his Yer Ol’ Woodpile Report blog.

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — January 1, 2020

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A notable birthday: John Cantius Garand was born  January 1, 1888 in St. Rémi, Quebec. John Garand designed one of America’s best known battle rifles, the M1 Garand. General Patton praised Garand’s design, writing to Chief of Ordnance Lt. Gen. Levin H. Campbell, Jr., (January 26, 1945): “The M1 rifle is the most deadly rifle in the world.” Garand died on February 16, 1974.

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Archive USB Update

For those who have asked, here is an update on our upcoming release of the SurvivalBlog 2005-2019 archive waterproof USB sticks. To summarize:

  • The archive now includes all SurvivalBlog posts and comments from 2005 through 2019.
  • The stick’s contents this year will be so large that we had to switch to a more expensive 16 GB capacity stick. This will leave about 5 GB of free space for you load your personal photos, scanned documents, and e-books–making the USB stick ideal for packing in your bugout bag.
  • The archive is once again on a waterproof and EMP-proof all-metal alloy stick with lanyard/key ring hole, secured by a threaded cap with o-ring seal. It is waterproof to three atmospheres of water depth. (100 feet = or 43.3 pounds per square inch. To be precise, that equates to 2.95 atmospheres.)
  • In supplement all of the bonus books from the previous years, we’ve scanned a great selection of additional pre-1925 books that I’ve never seen offered elsewhere–almost 4,000 new pages! This includes an 800-page practical cookbook (circa 1923), a book on nut tree growing and pruning (circa 1924), the book Civilization During the Middle Ages (circa 1894), and the multi-volume Encyclopedia of Farm Knowledge (circa 1920). The archive just keeps getting bigger and better!
  • Please consider making a gift of your older-edition archive sticks to like-mind friends or family members. It is important to share and preserve this knowledge.
  • The archive waterproof USB sticks should be ready to pre-order by January 14th, and deliveries should begin on or before February 10, 2020. Please DO NOT contact us about ordering or reserving one for you before January 14th! Thanks for your patience.

2020: A Year of Perfect Hindsight

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As we begin the year 2020, I’d like to reflect on what I’ve seen and experienced, since I was born in 1960. In my novel Patriots, a couple of my characters used the now-cliched phrase: “Hindsight is 20/20.” But I must say that in many ways that it truly is. With the benefit of some hindsight, I have formulated a few observations for 2020 — a year of 20/20 hindsight:

Technology

When I was growing up, computers were enormous lumbering beasts that were primarily batch-programmed with Hollerith punched cards. I had the advantage of attending Livermore High School, where those of us enrolled in a computer class could log on to one of the four Cray-designed Lawrence Livermore Laboratories mainframe computers. (As I recall, two of these were the CDC-7600 model.) Starting in 1977, we did so via a Texas Instruments Silent 700 terminal with an acoustic phone handset coupler. (Remember those?) Following high school, I still wrote all of my college papers on an electric typewriter. The first Apple Macintosh computer wasn’t released until the year I graduated from college: 1984. In 1986 I bought my first Apple. It was a Macintosh Plus — the faster, “big memory” upgraded model with 1 MB of RAM and a 8 MHz Motorola 68000 processor. That cost around $1,800. Over the winter of 1990-1991, I wrote the first iteration of my novel Patriots on that Mac, and released it as shareware, under the title The Gray Nineties. At the same time, I was using a “fast” 4,800 baud modem to access AmericaOnline (AOL). This was all before the first web browser became available for Macs, in 1993. By today’s standards, this recitation may seem quite Stone Age. But back then it was considered cutting edge home computing.

I’m writing this in the last week of 2019. Computers are now so ubiquitous that most people carry them around in their pockets. A $200 smartphone has the processing speed of a million dollar Cray mainframe of the 1970s. It also has more storage capacity than a wall rack full of 10.5-inch memory tapes.

The Velocity of Data Retrieval

One of the key benefits of new technology is what some term the velocity of data retrieval. When I was growing up, people would get into arguments about history or trivia. These tiffs could only be settled with either a check in a Book of Facts, a set of encyclopedias, or a phone call to the library. There, they had someone on staff with the job title of Reference Librarian. She sat a desk strategically near the library’s Reference section. She had a phone with an extra long handset cord — a 25-foot-long phone cord. She was a miracle worker. Our local Reference Librarian, named Beverly, seemingly knew just where to look. Sometimes after a multi-minute delay, she’d be back on the phone, with a cheery: “I found what you needed…”  Back in the 1960s that was considered very fast fact-checking. But the serious, detailed fact checking was done by mail. Today, of course, most urbanites carry a smart phone, and they can retrieve arcane facts and figures in just seconds. The main concern now is that people depend on Wikipedia, which has a notorious liberal sociopolitical bias, and is also notoriously pranked and vanadalized.

Surveillance

All of the advance in computing and surveillance technology that I’ve described is a two-edged sword. The same tools that are driving our economy and solving crimes can be used to target us for tyranny. Surveillance cameras are now ubiquitous.  When I was growing up in the 1960s I remember seeing just one surveillance camera in our town. It was trained on the door of our local bank, to identify exiting bank robbers. There are now cameras built into almost every computer screen, every smartphone (sometimes two cameras!), and most television screens. Worst of all, are the A.I.-enabled surveillance systems working in the background, parsing billions of images and looking for patterns of behavior.Continue reading“2020: A Year of Perfect Hindsight”

JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:

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Here are JWR’s Recommendations of the Week for various media and tools of interest to SurvivalBlog readers. The focus is usually on emergency communications gear, bug out bag gear, books and movies–often with a tie-in to disaster preparedness, and links to “how to” self-sufficiency videos. There are also links to sources for both storage food and storage containers. You will also note an emphasis on history books and historical movies. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. This week the focus is on snow gear. (See the Gear & Grub section.)

Books:

Snow Travel: Skills for Climbing, Hiking, and Moving Over Snow

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Free to Choose: A Personal Statement, by Dr. Milton Friedman

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Build Your Own AK: Vol. II: Building the Parts Kit (Volume 2). JWR’s Comment; If you are one of the thousands of American shooters who bought an AK parts set an “never got around to building it”, then this is the book for you. This book is quite detailed, and well worth the cover price.

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Ghost Soldiers: The Epic Account of World War II’s Greatest Rescue Mission

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50 States, 5,000 Ideas: Where to Go, When to Go, What to See, What to Do

Continue reading“JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Foolish liberals who are trying to read the Second Amendment out of the Constitution by claiming it’s not an individual right or that it’s too much of a public safety hazard, don’t see the danger in the big picture. They’re courting disaster by encouraging others to use the same means to eliminate portions of the Constitution they don’t like.” – Alan Dershowitz

Why Trade Deficits Matter, by Lyn Alden

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Editor’s Introductory Note: This article is a guest post that I selected from a contrarian economist and investment advisor. It first appeared at the Lyn Alden Investment Strategy web site.

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Due to the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as between certain other nations, the concept of a trade deficit is now front and center in financial media.

This article takes a look at why trade deficits (eventually) matter, and how they can factor into an investment strategy.

The short version is that trade deficits, along with a few other factors, tell us whether a country’s

currency is more likely to strengthen or weaken going forward.

However, it often takes several years for trade deficits to matter for a currency, which means that for the vast majority of investors and traders, trade deficits aren’t really factored into their analysis. Trade balances are not usually a short-term piece of trade-able data, in other words.

Instead, understanding trade deficits is more actionable in regards to long-term portfolio positioning.

Terms Defined

Trade Balance- A country’s trade balance measures the value of goods and services it exports compared to the value of goods and services that it imports. A country that exports more than it imports (i.e. produces more than it consumes) has a trade surplus. A country that imports more than it exports (i.e. consumes more than it produces) has a trade deficit.

For example, if the United States buys $500 billion worth of goods and services from China each year, and China buys $200 billion worth of goods and services from the United States each year, then the United States has a $300 billion trade deficit and China has a $300 billion trade surplus. A country’s overall trade balance is measured by adding up all the various trade surplus and trade deficits it has with all of its trading partners.

Current Account Balance- A more “complete” picture of a country’s inflows and outflows. The current account balance includes the trade balance, plus investment income between nations, plus cash transfers. A country with a current account surplus has more value flowing into it. A country with a current account deficit has more value flowing out of it.

For example, if the United States has a $300 billion trade deficit with China, but owns enough companies in China that they receive $100 billion worth of dividends each year, then the United States only has a $200 billion current account deficit with China, and China has a $200 billion current account surplus with the United States.

Net International Investment Position (NIIP)- Private citizens and government organizations of a country may own assets of other countries, like real estate, shares of corporations, bonds, and so forth. A country’s net international investment position is determined from the total amount of foreign assets its citizens and government own minus the total amount of domestic assets that foreign citizens and governments own.

For example, suppose United States citizens own $1 trillion worth of Japanese real estate, Japanese citizens own $2 trillion of U.S. real estate, and Swiss citizens own $1 trillion worth of U.S. real estate and $1 trillion of Japanese real estate. In this example, the United States has a -$1 trillion negative international investment position, Japan has a $0 net international investment position, and Switzerland has a +$2 trillion positive net international investment position.Continue reading“Why Trade Deficits Matter, by Lyn Alden”