Introduction
COVID-19 has a big impact on each of our lives. We make decisions daily regarding COVID-19 that influence the lives and futures of those we love and care for. As a result, I have been giving COVID-19 a lot of attention and thought for many months now. I would like to share some thoughts, opinions, and speculations about COVID-19 that may spur your thinking. I invite you to share your thoughts, opinions and speculations as well, in case they may be helpful to me.
The Bottom Line
COVID-19 is a new virus, to which none of us has prior resistance. It has become endemic throughout the world. The combination of extensive spread and little resistance means that the vast majority of the population of the world will probably become infected sooner or later. Pandora’s box is open, and there is no going back. To some extent, our efforts to stop the disease resemble a child building a sandcastle to try to stop a tidal wave. The primary question is not, “How effective will our countermeasures be?” The primary question is, “How big is the wave?”
When the early results of antibody testing began to become available, I concluded that roughly 350,000 people in the United States would probably die of COVID-19 by the time the first wave of the disease had run its course (the first wave being here defined as about 70% of the population becoming infected with COVID-19 for the first time). I concluded that there were steps that could be taken to influence how quickly people died, but that those steps would not have a large influence on how many people actually died of COVID-19 in the end.
I do not say this lightly. I do not want 350,000 people to die. I may be among the people who die. People I love may be among the people who die. But saying or pretending that we can have a significant impact on the number who die of the infection will not make it true. Sometimes the power of fallen nature dwarfs our puny human efforts.
However, in my initial calculations, I may have underestimated the foolishness of certain public officials. By placing active COVID-19 patients in nursing homes with the most vulnerable portion of the population, some state governors managed to create an even higher death rate than I anticipated for their states. These types of counterproductive actions could conceivably raise the death toll for the first wave as high as 500,000.
On the other hand, the death rate in recent weeks has been lower than I anticipated. I am not sure if medical professionals are developing more effective treatment protocols, if the virus has mutated to a less deadly strain, or if some other factor is at work. In any case, I rejoice, and hope that this development may keep the total initial death toll to as low as 250,000.Continue reading“Some Thoughts About COVID-19, by The Novice”


