Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Today, in lieu of my regular column, here is a special End-of-Year analysis of the firearms and ammunition market in the United States, with a few predictions for 2021 and beyond. Please note that I have a bias. This report comes from my “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. – JWR.

Also, note that we expect to post a similar year-in-review piece on precious metals from Stephen Cochran of Gainesville Coins. That should be posted sometime in the first few days of 2021.

Guns and Ammunition: 2020 in Hindsight

The market for newly-manufactured guns has been frantically busy since March. According to the FBI’s National Instant Check System (NICS) background check data, every month of 2020 has set records over the corresponding month, in 2019. The full data set won’t be available until February,  but the projected sales look like they may top 39 million transfer checks in 2020!  For comparison, the total for 2019 was 28,369,750 NICS checks. What makes the 2020 figure even more astounding is that it was achieved with many gun stores ordered closed by state and local pandemic “lock down” decrees. And in many states all gun shows have been canceled since April of 2020. So, even with many sales outlets restricted, Americans still made the effort to find stores that were open, and bought guns, in quantity.

Keep in mind that the NICS data is always “light” — under-reporting the actual number of sales. This is because many states do not require any NICS checks if the gun buyer holds a concealed carry permit. And the NICS check system only tallies ONE “check”, even if the buyer is purchasing several guns on the same 4473 Form. Nor does the system have any record of secondary private party sales, in 34 of the 50 States. Nor does NICS have any record of home builds from 80%-complete receivers.  So, in all, it is safe to assume that some figure north of 50 million guns changed hands, in 2020.

Parts, Magazines, Reloading Components

Online gun purchasing sites like GunBroker.com, Guns.com, and GunsAmerica.com all had banner years. Online sellers of gun parts, reloading components, and magazines also had phenomenally good sales. One of our affiliate advertisers, GunMag Warehouse, somehow managed to move their company from Florida to Texas and yet also log a record year for sales, in 2020. Amazing.  And another affiliate, Palmetto State Armory (PSA) sold more uppers, lowers, and complete guns than they had in any previous year.  And I’m confident that they would have sold even more, but they ran out of parts to assemble their most popular ARs  and complete uppers.

I’d also like to include some anecdotal observations from 2020:

  • In my own lightly-populated region I’ve heard stories of people driving up to 300 miles to buy a gun that they had located.
  • I also heard of local rancher who had been “sitting on” at least eight AR-15 stripped lower receivers, who went  ahead and completed them with parts that he bought online.
  • One of my neighbors–who is a handloader and target shooter but not a “prepper”–suddenly felt the need to buy a second AR-15. And he also suddenly felt the need to stock up on magazines for the M1 Carbine that he had inherited from his father. And although he already had a shelf full of different smokeless powder varieties, he is now looking for a source for another 20 to 30 pounds of IMR 3031 powder, and he’s been begging me to find him another 20,000+ primers.
Record Ammo Sales

2020 has also been a year for the record books in ammunition sales. The demand has far surpassed the woeful “Ammo Drought” of the Obama era. That shortage had mainly been .22 Long Rifle ammo. But the new ammo drought includes about 90% of rifle and pistol loadings.  (The supply of shotgun birdshot shelsl seems to be the only exception.) Most gun stores in the country have been out of stock for many standard calibers since March. The hardest-hit calibers seem to be 9mm Parabellum and 5.56mm NATO.  But there are now chronic shortages across the board.

Some of the ammunition price increases have strained credulity. For example, Russian-made Wolf brad steel-cased 9mm ball ammunition had been selling for 15 to 20 cents per round, a year ago. But now, gun shops are charging $1 per round ($50 per box of 50), and yet people are still buying it up, in quantity.

Here is another key example: Standard Winchester white box or Federal (“American Eagle”) black box 5.56mm NATO  55-grain ball ammo was selling for around $11 retail per box of 20 cartridges in January of 2020. But today, it is selling for $20+ per box. And many dealers have put purchase limits (typically  2 or 3 boxes, per customer) to prevent their supplies from being completely wiped out.

Another personal anecdote: One of our local gun shops had a very large supply of .22-250 ammunition loaded by Winchester that they’d bought by mistake. Apparently, a store clerk had ordered it instead of .223 Remington.  This was a pile of sealed brown cardboard cases that appeared to be around 4,000 rounds.  When I saw pile that back in November of 2019, I thought to myself:  “It will take them five  or six years to sell all of that.”  But when I dropped by the store in June of 2020, I noticed that the pile of .22-250 was gone.  I asked the store owner what happened.  His droll reply was memorable. He said: “I’ll tell you: 2020 happened.”

The ammunition shortage is now so severe that auction houses are now featuring special actions for ammunition. There, I’m seeing some insane bidding. In one memorable auction that I watched live online,  a few bidders were fighting over a few cans of World War 2 vintage corrosively-primed .30-06 ball (in Garand en bloc clips) for $2+ per round!

Pre-1899 Antiques

The market for antique (pre-1899 production) guns has been almost as frantic as the market for modern guns.  Overall, I’ve seen prices rise from 30% to 90% —  both on the local market and at auction houses that have bidders nationwide. As most of my readers know, I run a sideline business, selling antique guns, called Elk Creek Company. So I keep my finger on the pulse of the antique cartridge gun market. Prices vary widely, depending on the scarcity of particular models, and the condition of guns. But the price trend is definitely up. Here are some personal observations on the recent price increases for pre-1899 guns:

  • In January, I was finding Webley Mark I .45 ACP conversion revolvers for $675 to $1,100.  But as of December, the prevailing prices are ranging between $1,000 and $1,800.
  • In January, I was finding Smith & Wesson .38 Saftey Hammerless (“Lemon Squeezer”) revolvers for $275 to $600 each. But as of December, the prevailing prices are ranging between $500 and $1,200.
  • In January, I was finding Smith & Wesson .44-40 double-action revolvers for $750 to $1,400 each. But as of December, the prevailing prices are ranging between $1,100 and $2,500.
  • In January, I was finding .38 Long Colt Model 1892 to M1896 double-action revolvers made by Colt for $700 to $1,800 each. But as of December, the prevailing prices are ranging between $1,150 and $2,800.
  • In January, I was finding 1895-dated or 1898-dated Swedish Mauser carbines for $675 to $1,200 each.  But as of December, the prevailing prices are ranging between $950 and $1,850.
  • In January, I was finding Ludwig Loewe-made Model 1895 Mauser rifles or short rifles for $375 to $900 each. But as of December, the prevailing prices are ranging between $700 and $2,000.
  • In January, I was finding pre-1899 Winchester Model 1894 saddle ring carbines for $1,000 to $1,800 each. But as of December, the prevailing prices are ranging between $2,000 and $4,000.
  • In January, I was finding pre-1899 Finnish M39 Mosin Nagant short rifles for $600 to $1,200 each. But as of December, the prevailing prices are ranging between $900 and $2,100.

Predictions for 2021 and Beyond:

We can safely assume that gun sales in calendar year 2021 will be just as strong as 2020, and possibly much stronger. Given Joe Biden’s age and frail health, I expect to see Harris succeed Biden within 18 months. Plan on at least four years of a Democrat in the White House, and possibly much longer, given their proven skill at vote-rigging. That will mean 4+ years of gun, magazine, and ammunition shortages.  Sort supplies always lead to higher prices. So we can safely anticipate those prices to exceed the prevailing consumer price inflation. Plan (and invest), accordingly.

As of this writing, the big unanswered question is whether or not the two Republican U.S. Senate candidates will prevail in the January 5th runoff election, in Georgia. If those two seats instead go to Democrats, then that will result in a 50/50 split in the Senate, with the tie votes broken by the President of the Senate: The Vice President of the United States. And odds are, that will be none other than the extreme leftist Democrat Kamala Harris. Needless to say, she has a horrendously anti-gun record.

Some Suggestions

So here is my advice:  If on January 5th the two Senate seats in Georgia go to the Democrats, then you should immediately take any extra cash and buy magazines. Buy lots of 20+ round magazines!  This is because one of the top legislative priorities for the Democrats will be a ban on new production for civilian sale of any magazine that can hold more than 10 rounds.  That will drive the price of “high capacity” magazines through the roof. Specifically, I recommend buying the following magazines as an investment, even if you do not yet own the corresponding guns:

  • Glock factory 33-round 9mm magazines
  • Glock factory 17-round 9mm magazines
  • MagPul 22-round Glock-compatible 9mm magazines
  • SIG factory P320 20-round 9mm magazines
  • MagPul PMAG 30 round and 40-Round AR-15 polymer magazines
  • Full military specification 30 round M16 alloy magazines
  • Ruger factory 30-round Mini-14 magazines
  • Ruger factory 25-round .22LR BX-25 (Ruger 10/22) magazines
  • Kel-Tec PMR30 30-round .22 Magnum pistol magazines
  • U.S.GI. M1 Carbine 15-round and 30-round magazines
  • and, perhaps, some full military specification 30-round and 40-Round AK47 steel magazines

Don’t worry if you can’t immediately find the magazines that you need for all of the guns in your current collection. You can use any extras from the list above to later trade for what you need. When you buy barterable magazines, then you’ll be almost immune from subsequent price rises. You’ll already have plenty of “in demand” full capacity magazines. You’ll be able to trade your extra mags for the exact types that you need. Problem solved. Your barter stash is inflation-proof.

Buy ammunition to match all of the guns in your collection whenever you find it reasonably priced. Buy plenty of ammo cans to keep that ammo safe and dry. Stack them deep, preferably in several locations — in case of burglary.

With the assumption that Biden and Harris will take office, if your state law allows it, I also recommend investing in private party pistols and black rifles, specifically:

  • AR-15 variants, preferably with 16″ barrels, from any of the better “name” makers
  • SIG P320 pistols or serialized trigger group modules
  • Glock Model 19 pistols
  • Springfield Armory Hellcat 9mm pistols
  • Stripped AR-15 and AR-10 lowers
  • Original HK91 or HK93 Rifles
  • Original HK SP5 pistols (HK MP5 semi-auto clone)
  • AK-47 clones from any of the better “name” makers
  • M1A rifles made by Springfield Armory or Fulton Armory
  • IWI X95 Tavor bullpup rifles
Conclusion

I believe that the biggest shortages in 2021 will be magazines, complete M4-style AR rifle uppers, and AR rifle barrels with threaded muzzles. The AR barrel market will be driven into a frenzy by the BATF’s latest absurd letter that could result in a de facto ban on most  AR pistols with braces.  (That letter was rescinded a few days ago, but the word from inside the beltway is that a more refined version will be published soon after  Biden is sworn in.) Faced with the alternatives of destroying their braces, doing a Federal SBR registration, or switching barrels, I predict that the majority of AR pistol owners will want to swap (or extend) their barrels. Thus, there will be a big shortage of complete 16″ barrel rifle uppers and 16″ barrels for retrofits. And simultaneously, the “XM177 style” 5.5-inch flash hiders will be in great demand, so that people can add length to their arm braced ARs. That will legally turn a 10.5″ barrel AR pistol into a 16″ barrel rifle. Note that to make any barrel extension legal, it would have to bring the barrel’s length to at least 16 inches and that it must be either welded-on or attached with high-temperature silver solder.

Lastly, don’t panic. If Biden and Harris take office then things will look grim, especially in the first six months. Just stock up as best you can. Position yourself to be ready to barter. If you have the guns, ammo, and magazines that people are looking for, then you’ll be able to barter for just about anything.

Keep in mind that nearly all Federal gun laws have Grandfather Clauses. So you’ll be able to keep what you have.

Trust in God, and keep your powder dry. – JWR

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — December 27, 2020

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On this day in 1979, in an attempt to stabilize the turbulent political situation in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union sent 75,000 troops to enforce the installation of Babrak Karmal as the new leader of the nation. The new government and the imposing Soviet presence, however, had little success in putting down anti-government rebels. Thus began nearly 10 years of an agonizing, destructive, and ultimately fruitless Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan. It was death by a thousand cuts.

—

I will be back at the Rawles Ranch in seven days, so I’ve resumed taking orders at Elk Creek Company, with a speclal New Year Sale on most of our rifle inventory. Mailing of new orders will begin the day after my return.  Thanks for your patience.

—

Today we present a guest article written by a SurvivalBlog reader. At just under 1,000 words, it was too short for consideration in the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

I encourage readers to share their knowledge and write articles for SurvivalBlog. You’ll both add to the readership’s collective readiness and you’ll put yourself in the competition to win some great prizes. Is it worth it? Just ask any of the more than 270 people who have been awarded any of the top three prizes. I’m sure that they’d tell you that they were delighted when they received their prizes.

Round 92 ends on January 31, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Custom Cardboard Box Making, by Captain Nemo

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My grandfather grew up on the wrong side of the tracks, and had to make do with just the things that he had. One of the skills that he learned was building a better cardboard box. He would fit and glue boxes together, and add wooden handles to make nearly indestructible cardboard tote and storage boxes. I have some of his old boxes that are 53+ years old, and they are still strong. My father never had the knack for it, but my uncle did! He would use the cardboard like plywood and fill edges with glue to add strength. He also built specialized tote boxes for things like his Ham radio gear, and RC aircraft supplies. If you have lots of cardboard available, then this is a good way to recycle it.

Grain is Strength!

The grain of cardboard is just like the grain of wood. The side with the small holes is the end grain. Almost all boxes are built with the grain running vertical, and crossed grains on the top and bottom. Crossing the grains adds strength to the top and bottom of the box. This is the same way that plywood works. So in building up boxes, we cross the grains to add strength.

Building up a Box

Here is the basic box-building procedure: Start with an existing cardboard box that is larger than the object that you want to place into it. You will lose anywhere from a ¼” to 3/8” or more, depending on the number of plies of cardboard that you use. I normally cut the top flaps off of the box. Start by gluing the inside flaps to the outside flaps with a waterproof wood glue.

Rectangular boxes will need a filler in the “step-down” section in the bottom-center. Match the filler grain with the flaps, and glue it down. Next cut a panel that fits the entire bottom with the grain opposite of the inner flaps, and glue it down. I normally go with three plies for the bottom, but more could be added if needed. Next, cut two panels to fit the sides with the grain running opposite and glue the three edges and face of the panels to the box.

Now, cut another two panels for the ends, and glue them into place. Repeat again with the grain running opposite. It helps to use weights to hold the cardboard down while the glue cures. Next, measure the height required plus 3/8” for a lid, and trim the sides. This will leave a square edge all the way around. Fill the edge with glue and let it dry. You may have to go over the edges multiple times, since some of the end grain will suck the glue into the corrugations.Continue reading“Custom Cardboard Box Making, by Captain Nemo”

JWR’s Meme Of The Week:

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The latest meme created by JWR:

To share this, you can find it here: https://kapwi.ng/c/mwvPEgTM

Meme Text:

The Fickle ATF Says:
Your Formerly-Approved AR Pistol
Might Now Be a “Short-Barreled Rifle”
If it is Too Long, Too Heavy, “Impractical”, or Too Large a Caliber.
But We Won’t Define Those Terms Yet.
Because We’re “Biden” Our Time.

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Verily I say unto you, It shall be more tolerable for the land of Sodom and Gomorrha in the day of judgment, than for that city.

Behold, I send you forth as sheep in the midst of wolves: be ye therefore wise as serpents, and harmless as doves.

But beware of men: for they will deliver you up to the councils, and they will scourge you in their synagogues;

And ye shall be brought before governors and kings for my sake, for a testimony against them and the Gentiles.

But when they deliver you up, take no thought how or what ye shall speak: for it shall be given you in that same hour what ye shall speak.

For it is not ye that speak, but the Spirit of your Father which speaketh in you.

And the brother shall deliver up the brother to death, and the father the child: and the children shall rise up against their parents, and cause them to be put to death.

And ye shall be hated of all men for my name’s sake: but he that endureth to the end shall be saved.

But when they persecute you in this city, flee ye into another: for verily I say unto you, Ye shall not have gone over the cities of Israel, till the Son of man be come.

The disciple is not above his master, nor the servant above his lord.

It is enough for the disciple that he be as his master, and the servant as his lord. If they have called the master of the house Beelzebub, how much more shall they call them of his household?

Fear them not therefore: for there is nothing covered, that shall not be revealed; and hid, that shall not be known.

What I tell you in darkness, that speak ye in light: and what ye hear in the ear, that preach ye upon the housetops.

And fear not them which kill the body, but are not able to kill the soul: but rather fear him which is able to destroy both soul and body in hell.

Are not two sparrows sold for a farthing? and one of them shall not fall on the ground without your Father.

But the very hairs of your head are all numbered.

Fear ye not therefore, ye are of more value than many sparrows.

Whosoever therefore shall confess me before men, him will I confess also before my Father which is in heaven.

But whosoever shall deny me before men, him will I also deny before my Father which is in heaven.

Think not that I am come to send peace on earth: I came not to send peace, but a sword.

For I am come to set a man at variance against his father, and the daughter against her mother, and the daughter in law against her mother in law.

And a man’s foes shall be they of his own household.

He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me.

And he that taketh not his cross, and followeth after me, is not worthy of me.

He that findeth his life shall lose it: and he that loseth his life for my sake shall find it.

He that receiveth you receiveth me, and he that receiveth me receiveth him that sent me.

He that receiveth a prophet in the name of a prophet shall receive a prophet’s reward; and he that receiveth a righteous man in the name of a righteous man shall receive a righteous man’s reward.

And whosoever shall give to drink unto one of these little ones a cup of cold water only in the name of a disciple, verily I say unto you, he shall in no wise lose his reward.” – Matthew 10:15-42 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — December 26, 2020

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On December 26, 2004, the Indian Ocean region Tsunami took more than 250,000 lives.

On December 26th, 1776, after crossing the Delaware River, Washington led his men against Hessian mercenary soldiers garrisoned at Trenton. After a brief battle, nearly the entire Hessian force was captured, with negligible losses to the Americans, significantly boosting their flagging morale.

—

Hooray! Brexit congrats to our readers in the United Kingdom. After four and a half years, you finally negotiated your way out of Burger King!

—

After a month-long hiatus, I just reactivated the order-taking system at Elk Creek Company  — my sideline antique gun business. Please note that I’ve set special sale prices on nearly all of the rifles in our inventory. With the Biden Administration soon to take over the White House, is strongly recommend that you buy a couple of Federally exempt pre-1899 cartridge guns, as a strategic hedge. Why? Because you may soon have to make a lot of the other guns in your collection “disappear”.

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 92 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (a $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  5. An assortment of products along with a one-hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 92 ends on January 31, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

The Bill Of Convenient Privileges, by J.H.

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In this essay, I’ll be discussing The Bill Of Convenient Privileges (Formerly Known As The Bill Of Rights.)

It is a sad day in a sad country. Ours was the only nation that was formed based on the concept of individual freedom and equal opportunity. (Not equal outcome.)

I am going to show how we the people no longer have rights, but only Government-granted privileges. And only when they are convenient to the government.

So let’s do this by the numbers: The first five Constitutional Amendments — Oops, I mean the first five convenient privileges.

Amendment #1: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people to peaceably assemble, and petition the Government for redress of grievances.

Wow, that sounds wonderful, doesn’t it? But now the reality of it: Let’s start with free speech. I know that this next part will annoy a lot of people but here goes: I believe that true free speech means a person can say anything. Now before you go crazy please hear me out. I said they can say anything, but both words and actions have consequences. If you say something inappropriate to someone and they beat the snot out of you, then you deserve it. But that doesn’t mean the Government should put you in jail for it. But that is exactly what the Government will do because it violated political correctness. Just try and make a conservative speech at a university. In today’s political climate that is not happening. And as for “hate speech”? You have a right to hate anyone, but again, there are consequences.

So much for Freedom of speech.Continue reading“The Bill Of Convenient Privileges, by J.H.”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

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To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year. Note that as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in the Comments. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

I’m starting to get packed up for my drive back to the ranch.  Early this morning I reactivated the shopping cart system at Elk Creek Company, so all of our antique guns should now be orderable. I set some special sale prices on most of the rifles. But be advised that shipments won’t take place until after I get back to the ranch on January 2nd or 3rd. Thanks for your patience.

While I’ve been gone on this out-of-state trip, Lily has been able to get by without any snow plowing. But looking at the long-range weather forecast, it looks like I will have plenty of plowing to do, in January. Time will tell.

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Break forth into joy, sing together, ye waste places of Jerusalem: for the Lord hath comforted his people, he hath redeemed Jerusalem.

The Lord hath made bare his holy arm in the eyes of all the nations; and all the ends of the earth shall see the salvation of our God.

Depart ye, depart ye, go ye out from thence, touch no unclean thing; go ye out of the midst of her; be ye clean, that bear the vessels of the Lord.

For ye shall not go out with haste, nor go by flight: for the Lord will go before you; and the God of Israel will be your reward.

Behold, my servant shall deal prudently, he shall be exalted and extolled, and be very high.

As many were astonied at thee; his visage was so marred more than any man, and his form more than the sons of men:

So shall he sprinkle many nations; the kings shall shut their mouths at him: for that which had not been told them shall they see; and that which they had not heard shall they consider.” – Isaiah 52: 9-15 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — December 25, 2020

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To those who are celebrating the Advent of our Lord and Savior, the team at SurvivalBlog wishes you a peaceful and meaningful Christmas. For those who choose to celebrate our Lord through the biblical feasts, stay safe out there during this holiday season. Our prayer is that each and every one of you enjoys your family time. Stay safe on those wintry roads.

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 92 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (a $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  5. An assortment of products along with a one-hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 92 ends on January 31, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Gear Review: Three Hand Crank Radios, by The Novice

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Many years ago, in a small town near where I live, a young family was gathered in their home. The weather had begun to look threatening, and they were concerned. Then, a growing rumble shook the earth and sky, like the approach of an impossibly large freight train. The family sought what shelter they could find. As the oncoming tornado shattered their house, the young father shielded his family with his own body. His family survived. He did not. One of the children whom that man protected grew up to be an acquaintance whom I greatly respect and admire.

Many other people in my community are personally acquainted with people who share similar experiences. So it is not surprising that many people around here take tornado preparedness seriously. It is common to have a tornado kit in a safe place in the basement. This kit will typically contain items like a flashlight, extra batteries, a whistle, a first aid kit, bottled water, and a knife.

Besides the flashlight, probably the most commonly stocked item in a tornado kit is a battery-powered radio. Once a family has sought shelter, they want to able to track the progress of the storm, and know when it is safe to come out. A battery-powered radio gives access to this kind of information.

Several years ago, I wanted to upgrade the radio in my tornado kit. Batteries degrade over time. They should be replaced periodically to be certain that they retain an adequate charge when needed. But as a Norwegian proverb observes, “It is quickly done to forget.” I wanted a self-powered radio to assure that diminished battery capacity would not be an issue. So I put a hand-crank radio on my Christmas wish list, and received one from my wife that year.Continue reading“Gear Review: Three Hand Crank Radios, by The Novice”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Today, on Christmas Day, in place of my normal Friday news column, I have this special bit of investing commentary for my readers:

Investing In Your Children’s Future

Today, December 25th, for most Americans, is a holiday of generous excess. We live in a still relatively prosperous nation, and we are a people known for our generosity. One end of your house is most likely strewn with bits of wrapping paper and ribbons. Your children or grandchildren are surely playing with their new toys, dolls, and games. A few of them are probably pouting, because they didn’t receive a Playstation 5 or an iPhone 12 — or whatever gadget it is that they had been hoping for.  And I suspect that many of those who received both gadgets and books are now busy playing with the gadgets, but they have piled up their new books “to look at later.”

Take this essay as my personal challenge to you… Ask yourself:  What can and should I do differently in the coming year when looking for birthday, graduation, charitable gifts, housewarming gifts, and Hannukah/Christmas gifts that will make a real difference in the life of the recipient?

I have a few suggestions, that come from my own “Tangibles Heavy” perspective as a 60-year-old Curmudgeon-In-Training who lives 25 miles from the nearest sidewalk or any cellphone reception. I’m also a Christian, a conservative, a libertarian, and a traditionalist. So your circumstances may vary.

My Suggestions

The following are my suggestions. These are general guidelines and principles, rather than brand names and model numbers:

Things that truly last. Gadgets don’t last. In today’s Bluetooth-enabled world, most of them are essentially obsolete in less than three or four years. But, in contrast, some gifts are truly timeless. I have some items in my home that belonged to my grandfather, and a few that belonged to my great-grandfather.  And you can probably guess what most of those items are:  Books, tools, knives, and guns.  A few of these items I use almost daily.  A good example is a horsehair push broom that belonged to my paternal grandfather.  It was very well made, so if I continue to treat it well, then it might still be intact to pass along to one of my grandsons. Another one of my prized possessions is a Winchester brand screwdriver that also belonged to my grandfather. You may not have heard, but Winchester launched a hardware store chain, just a few years before the Great Depression began.  Sadly, the store chain didn’t last. But there are still a surprising number of collectible Winchester-marked tools that are still quite useful. You can find them on eBay, if you are patient.

Gifts that require an investment of your time.  Obviously, something that you made with your own hands are at the top of this list. But also consider investing your time in genealogy research for your family. That takes a lot of time, but it can result in something tangible that will be treasured for many generations to come. And if copies (both electronic and hard copy) are put in the hands of many members of your extended family, then it will be almost impossible for it to be destroyed by natural or man-made disasters.

Things that hold or gain value. Consider: Items that depreciate are gifts that will probably end up in a landfill within a few years. But silver dollars won’t!Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — December 24, 2020

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December 24 is the anniversary of when John Joe Gray’s legal troubles began, in 2000. He and his family had been self-sufficiently holed up in their Texas ranch for nearly 15 years, in defiance of a warrant for his arrest, before the district attorney dropped the charges. This was the longest standoff in American history, in which he faced the administrations of four different county sheriffs.

—

Some good news was announced on Wednesday evening, from our friends at The Firearms Policy Coalition (FPC):

Today, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (“ATF”) issued “the withdrawal of a notice and request for comments” regarding the agency’s recently published “guidance” document captioned “Objective Factors for Classifying Weapons with ‘Stabilizing Braces’.” The ATF’s notice of withdrawal can be found at FPCLegal.org.

On December 16, 2020, FPC published a memorandum entitled “ATF to Issue Guidance on ‘Stabilizing Braces’,” reporting on the agency’s intent to further address firearms with stabilizing brace devices. That memorandum also stated that “FPC believes that the NFA is an unconstitutional infringement of the People’s rights, that the ATF should be abolished, and that any policy or practice enforcing the Act is unconstitutional and immoral.”

Two days later, the ATF’s guidance was published in the Federal Register “to inform and invite comment from the industry and public” for a period of 14 days. The notice purported to give the public guidance as to factors that the agency would use to “determine” whether a handgun equipped with a “stabilizing brace” was a firearm regulated by the National Firearms Act (“NFA”).

But in the same announcement, the FPC warned:

“While the ATF is apparently withdrawing this particular “guidance” at this time, the matter is still “pending further Department of Justice review,” which could lead to ATF taking different and potentially far more aggressive actions in the near future, especially under a Joseph Biden-led administration.”

Even though the daft draft guidance letter was withdrawn, please go ahead and make a comment. (One thing that the leftists say has some truth to it: “Silence is consent.”)  Please make your comment short, to the point, and polite. DO NOT use any profanity, crude language, or insults.

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 92 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (a $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  5. An assortment of products along with a one-hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  4. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 92 ends on January 31, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.