More On Precious Metals, The Iranian Nuclear Situation, The Iranian Oil Bourse, and the New Silver ETF

I’ve had more than a dozen e-mails from SurvivalBlog readers in recent weeks regarding Iran’s plans open a new oil bourse in March that will be denominated in Euros. Meanwhile there is lots of saber rattling going on, regarding Iran’s nuclear program–leading to the prospect of an Iranian oil embargo, which could of course mean very bad things for the U.S. economy. I have no idea how these two semi-related situations will play out. I’d be a fool to say that I knew. Aside for a few Ayatollahs, nobody knows. All that I can tell you is that these situations spell instability and uncertainty. The speculative side of the precious metals market is driven by fear, and I think that there will be plenty of fear in the coming months. Therefore, I can foresee a spike in the price of precious metals. The biggest gain will surely be in silver, which has been undervalued for years. In fact, silver could jump to over $90 an ounce. How? Here is one scenario: What if the recently-announced silver exchange traded fund (ETF) goes “live” at roughly the same time as either a.) a dollar crisis (precipitated by the new oil bourse), or b.) an Iranian oil embargo, or c.) military action in Iran–most likely an attack on their nuclear reactors.  It could even be a combination of all of the above. Consider that silver ran up to $50 per ounce during the Hunt Brothers short squeeze/buying panic in the late 1970s. Adjusted for inflation that would be the equivalent of around $80 per ounce these days.
I can’t overstate the significance of the Iran situation. For some more background, see: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willie012506.html
I’m just glad that I bought nearly all my Engelhard 100 ounce bars back when spot silver was around $4.40 an ounce!

Back in February of 2001, I stuck my neck out and “called the bottom” publicly when spot silver dipped to $4.55 per ounce. In that same post I predicted a possible further price sag to “as low as $4.25.” In fact it actually bottomed a few months later, at around $4.16. Okay, so I missed calling the exact the bottom, but on a macro scale I fairly accurately called the end of a 15+ year bear market and the beginning of the current bull market. BTW, if you think I’m making this up, see the Usenet newsgroup archives: http://groups.google.com/groups?q=Rawles+Calls+Bottom+Silver&hl=en 
The long term charts at Kitco.com are a real eye-opener.

Buckle your seat belts, folks. We are in for quite a roller coaster ride.

Product Review: Safecastle’s New Compact “ScramKit”

A SurvivalBlog reader in Montana recommended that I take a look at the new compact “ScramKits” being offered by Safecastle. I must say that I’m impressed. They pack a lot of survival gear into a very small space. Their “Responder Personal” kit is in effect a miniature “Get Out of Dodge” (G.O.O.D.) kit or “bug out bag” (BOB) that you should keep in your car’s glove box or center console box at all times. This kit fits in its own heavy duty belt pouch (available in three different colors) with ALICE/MOLLE attachments  I think that the ScramKit makes the ideal “core” of a more comprehensive G.O.O.D. kit.  Add a tube tent and/or a couple of heavy duty space blankets and you have shelter for longer duration. Add a canteen and a day pack full of MREs, retort packaged, and/or freeze dried food to that, and you’ve got sustenance for a week. Add a whompin’ big sheath knife, and…

Here is what the kit contains:
* Maxpedition™ M5 waistbag in your choice of black, green, or khaki (as available)
* Personal-size first aid kit (in separately-removable bag)
* Pocket Survival Pack™ (in waterproof bag), from Adventure Medical Kits, which contains a treasure trove of goodies:
o Rescue Howler™ whistle
o Emergency signal mirror
o Fluid-filled magnetic compass
o Fire starter kit
o Duct tape (2″ x 26″)
o Scalpel blade
o Stainless steel utility wire (6 feet long)
o Nylon thread
o Nylon braided “paracord”
o Fishing gear: hooks, sinkers, swivel, nylon line
o Heavy-duty aluminum foil (1 sq. yard)
o Large sewing needle & safety pins
o Waterproof paper and pencil
* Tool Logic SL3™ folding knife with integral whistle and fire starter rod
* Tool Logic Ice Card II™ credit-card multi tool system
* Tool Logic T1 Tech Light™ LED clip-on flashlight
* Emergency mylar “space” blanket
* 2 earloop face masks (surgical grade) in separate ziplock bags
* 2 pairs of nitrile exam gloves (non-sterile) paired up into separate ziplock bags
* GP4L digital shortwave radio with built-in regulated LED flashlight (includes earbuds) in a crush-resistant plastic case
* 16-foot windup antenna for the GP4L radio.

The Responder Personal kit provides the following capabilities:
* Basic first aid
* Basic respiratory protection (biological)
* Moderate emergency response
* Basic lighting (redundant)
* Basic fire starting (redundant)
* Basic tooling & gear repair
* Moderate communications (reception only)

The bottom line: I highly recommend this kit. Yes, you could assemble your own comparable kit, but that would take a lot of research and placing six or seven separate mail orders. And because of economies of scale (since Safecastle no doubt buys all of the components in quantity and hence commands lower prices from their suppliers) you wouldn’t save much money by doing the piecemeal purchasing yourself. One important proviso: Don’ t take one of these kits on a commercial airplane flight unless the kit is inside of your checked luggage.  (The pocket knife, snare wire, fire starters, and stainless surgical blades would be enough to give the TSA screeners fits of apoplexy!)

Precious Metals Update

You may have noticed that yesterday gold briefly touched $565 per ounce and silver hit $9.44 per ounce and stayed there. Methinks this bull market is just getting started! Aside for some doldrums this summer (since summers are typically quiet for the metals markets), you can expect a choppy but generally upward (stair-stepping) path for the precious metal prices through the rest of the year. The 90 and 120 day moving averages (DMAs) point to the bull market trend to continue WELL in excess of the rate of inflation. There is even the chance of on “upright spike” in the event of a dollar crisis. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: On a macro scale, the second half of this “Aughts” decade will probably resemble the second half of the 1970s. I just hope that the Federal Reserve’s new chief (“Helicopter Ben” Bernanke) can crank up his bubble machine fast enough to avert simultaneous stock market and real estate market collapses. This could get very interesting, folks. I expect that the U.S. real estate bubble will burst, sometime around May of ’06. There are already signs that the bubble is starting to lose some of its hot air. For example, see: http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/19/real_estate/home_money_0602/

David in Israel on Fire Suppression and Fire Fighting

For those with a real retreat in the forest or high desert a more pressing need than complete firearms battery is fire suppression. If you miss my point here, I believe that many survivalists confuse their gun hobby with serious survival preparations.

If the massive combined fire suppression ever stops for even a year massive fires will rip across the United States. Fuel loading from over 70 years of fire suppression and no natural burn-off has made conditions ripe for fires never seen before in North America.  Even if your only survival concerns are foreign invasion or occupation expect fire to be used (as was
attempted but failed during the Vietnam Agent Orange defoliation ops) to clear insurgents out of unsettled areas and deny them cover and natural resources.
This is a massive topic and this post can only give you areas to begin study.

1-Thin the vegetation as far as you are practical able to in the area of your home/retreat ideally this would be a county or community effort and the USFS or State Forestry Agency may be able to assist. Ideally, undergrowth would be burned off and trees closer than 5-10M to another would be removed to slow spread through a forest crown fire.
2-Create a perimeter around your home grass must be mowed to a stubble and raked off, no trees can be within 10M of the house any building or fuel tank.
Try to eliminate flammable trees in the nearby areas to your home and plant less flammable types.
3-Switch to a non flammable roof now, shake roofs are tinder and are almost a guarantee of a burned home in a fire
4-Make active suppression preparations:
– Install a irrigation system, include the roofs and under the eaves of your buildings in this sprinkler installation
– Install a swimming pool or cistern to provide a large supply of water
– Have a portable or installed gas powered water pump 250gpm is a good rate more will support more hand lines but any is better than none have a store of 1.5″ supply line as well as 1″ fire and 3/4″ fire (with garden hose fittings) types, nozzles, adapters, splitters etc will round out the hardware.  Standardize [fittings] with local fire or fed/state agencies who would respond.  BTW, it is best to mark [with a distinctive bright paint color] all of your hardware to prevent theft after a fire by the crews.
A excellent preparation to keep you whole home with pressurized water in the event of a prolonged outage is making a water tower and relying on head pressure to feed both your home and fire suppression systems.
This is as simple as hanging plastic barrels on a tree trunk or as complex as complex as having contractors install a proper water tower. For the improvised tower remember the filled weight of your water (1 gal = 8.33 lbs. and 55 gal = 458 lbs.) and fence around the tower in case of collapse so that nobody is injured.

Here in Israel I have seen the same “pumpkin” tanks that we used in the Forest Service, but built to larger dimensions and more aesthetic colors and sold as swimming pools. Above
ground or in ground is a matter of your pocketbook but be sure that you are able to properly draft to supply your fire operations.

Clothing
Nomex is best, USFS surplus or military flight suits are good as long as no metal zippers contact skin, the next best is cotton, Never wear synthetics or synthetic blends for use around fire.

Boots/Gloves
Never wear steel toe boots for fire fighting, because the steel will hold heat. Kevlar laces do not melt or burn. Keep boots and gloves dry to prevent steam burns. White’s brand were
the best in my day this may have changed. Good leather gloves light enough to work in, do not oil them keep them dry buy as large a supply as possible, kevlar stitching and double palm is a plus.

Gear
Buy a fire shelter for every family member plus extras, have several fire shovels (different than cheap garden/work shovels) and Pulaskies (hoe/axe tool), a helmet should always be worn during heavy work, and possibly blagger bags will help mop up after a fire has gone through. Also, a chainsaw adequate for cutting the local timber and the skills to use and maintain it are a must.

JWR Adds:  David speaks from experience. Heed his advice. Most of you may not be aware, but before he emigrated to Israel, David worked in the U.S. for many years as a full time fireman, and later as a paramedic.  

My $.02 worth on fire suppression/fire fighting:  If you are building a retreat from scratch or if you are replacing an existing water system, I recommend that you spend a little bit more an put in a large cistern, preferably with gravity feed with a substantial head, and put in a 2″ diameter Schedule 40 service line to the house.  Just outside of the house put in a “T” on the two inch line with a 2″ gate valve.  (Downstream of that “T” is where you can reduced to 1″ or smaller lines for your house.) Those 2″ gate valves are outrageously expensive–around $50 each), so shop around–perhaps buy them used.  At the big gate valve you can attach a proper high volume fire fighting hose rig. Effective firefighting is all about dispensing a large VOLUME of water, fast. Anything smaller than a 2″ diameter line will not suffice!  (Okay, perhaps 1.5 inch line if you are on a tight budget.)

Letter Re: Stocking Up on Shoes and Boots for Survival

Jim: 
Two words say it all: SHOE GOO.  I snipped the following description from a retailer online: “Shoe Goo is a clear adhesive and sealant that easily and permanently repairs all types of footwear. Apply it directly from the tube to worn out areas, allowing it to harden overnight. Shoo Goo adheres to all kinds of materials, so use it to mend rubber soles, tears in canvas or leather tops or to stop shoelaces from fraying. It dries to a waterproof, flexible rubber, so it will repair waders and boots without breaking or cracking under stress. Commonly used to cover pitching toes on baseball or softball cleats, mend worn outsole areas especially on running & skateboarding shoes, and repairing loosening outsoles.”  See: http://www.weplay.com/Shoe/Goo/  Expect to pay around $6 per tube.  Wal-Mart sells it, as well.
Shoe Goo is not as durable as the original sole on running shoes, but you can easily double the life of your footwear. And it is easier to pack a tube of Shoo Goo than extra boots. – OSOM

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Eric”, a former charter airline pilot and computer programmer publishes an interesting albeit sporadically updated self sufficiency blog: http://www.selfsufficientfamily.com/

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If you fall into the Club of Rome school of thought on the potential for a major whammy multi-generational societal collapse (See Roberto Vacca’s  book “The Coming Dark Age“), then you might find this site interesting: http://anthropik.com

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Two interesting web sites with some useful MicroHydro power info were recently mentioned in a discussion over at the Survival and Preparedness forum at The FAL Files.  See:   http://microhydropower.net/index.php and http://www.utilityfree.com/hydro/ (Scroll down to see their Pelton Wheel offerings)

Note From JWR:

Things are progressing well with my proposed “Paratus Farms” retreat community. (See my post on Saturday, January 21, 2006.)  One gent tells me that he wants to purchase between two and four of the parcels. That will leave at least three more parcels, but these will sell out quickly. Don’t hesitate, folks.  Additional details are available upon request, via e-mail.

Two Letters Re: On Suture, Staples, and Glue for Wound Closure

James:

After reading David in Israel I had a few further suggestions. All open wounds do not have to be sutured, in fact most wounds that are dirty should not be sutured but allowed to drain, and heal by “secondary intention” or basically healing from within. Not all soft tissue wounds need to be cleaned, and dead and nonviable tissue trimmed away. Abscess and further extension of infection can occur with a dirty wound that it sutured closed. Wash with copious amount sterile water, dilute betadine, or dilute hydrogen peroxide. Non dilute solutions often can cause more damage to the tissue than necessary. Straight bleach, rubbing alcohol, vinegar are all too strong and will cause additional damage. Oral or IV antibiotics may be needed during this time. Now organ lacerations are a different animal, particularly with bowel wound, these need to be isolated and repaired. Obviously only a well trained person will be able to do “surgery” to this extent. Leaving sutures in can scar, so a rule of thumb is 10 days for most wounds, 7 for thinner skin, and 3-5 on the face. Obviously scar formation is less of an issue in a SHTF case, and some wounds may need to be over sutured in order to transport a patient over rough terrain etc, but these will need to be followed closely and even allowed to drain.
Staple guns work great, and pretty much anyone who has had surgery recently has seen how widespread they are used. Highly vascular skin heals just as well with staples as sutures.
Dermabond or cyanoacrylate works great for small wounds, I have even seen some ER docs use this over suture which I do not recommend as it is very difficult to remove the sutures, but makes for a strong barrier. – Mike M.D. in MO

 

Jim:

David in Israel gives some unfortunately common, and bad advice about suturing. Unless you know (like a physician or physician assistant/nurse practitioner) what is UNDERNEATH the skin, and how to suture them back together, untrained people should NOT close wounds.
The body is made of layers of different tissues – skin, fascia (underlying tough fibrous tissue), muscles (in several layers, usually) and other things, like blood vessels, nerves, and organs. Each of these layers has different ways of being sutured, requiring different types of suture materials and needles, and just sewing the skin closed will allow blood to leak out of vessels and decay, causing infection.
The best thing for the untrained to do if there is a deep wound is to wash it out (as David in Israel said) with clean water or saline solution (a teaspoon of table salt per quart of water), maybe with some Povidone/iodine (Betadine solution (not scrub), and then pack the wound loosely with gauze and let it heal from the inside out. Such healing will take much longer and leave a worse scar, but closing prematurely can be disastrous.
Other closure techniques (glue, staples) are great within their limitations. Glues should not be used on wounds under stress, and staples are great for small skin or scalp lacerations. Neither addresses closing the underlying tissues.
Even in normal times, a minor wound that has gone for more than a few hours (six hours, in my hospital) is left open for at least a few days, to make certain that no foreign materials are trapped in the wound, and are closed after 48-72 hours. The skills for suturing itself are quite simple – the knowledge to know when to and to NOT suture is not. – Flighter

JWR Replies: Suturing does have its purpose under some circumstances.  I recommend that you stock up on suturing materials, as part of a comprehensive set of medical supplies for your retreat. OBTW, I recall that the folks at Ready Made Resources (one of our advertisers) has pre-loaded surgical staplers in sealed sterile packages (tres cool) available for sale.

Letter Re: “Shooter” on The Draw Technique, or “Shooter’s Five Steps to Keeping Ten Fingers”

Jim,
I’d like to add three observations to Shooter’s otherwise outstanding tutorial on weapons drawing and presentation – “Shooter” on The Draw Technique, or “Shooter’s Five Steps to Keeping Ten Fingers”. First, it is absolutely critical to be aware of your state’s protocols for use of lethal force in armed encounters. The most common elements that must be met to protect yourself legally is opportunity, ability and jeopardy. Go to www.packing.org and review your own state’s statutes. Second, I highly recommend that prior to reholstering and reversing the steps of the draw stroke which Shooter outlined, the weapon is brought from extension to the midriff pointing perpendicular from your body in the same two handed position and you conduct a 360 degree scan without moving your body to assess any additional threats and then you reholster WITHOUT looking at your holster (this will take some practice). This 360 scan must become a habit for the rest of your life whenever your reholster. The intensity of focus and tunnel vision common in these “Condition Black” encounters can insulate the shooter from being alerted to any additional threats that may be around or emerged during the shooting. You will never exceed your highest level of training. Third, register or indexing of the trigger finger is critical for safety and efficiency. There is never a reason to do otherwise until you are ready to fire. This probably accounts for most negligent discharges (“NDs”) in police departments as a result of sympathetic flinch on the trigger during stressful situations or reholstering with the finger on the trigger. In conclusion, seek professional training in tactical shooting from a local school or a nationally recognized marquee like Thunder Ranch or Gunsite. Training dollars should become a household budget item. Cordially, B.B. in North Idaho

Letter Re: Getting Your Group to Buy In: The $20 Medical Kit, By EMT J.N.

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I was very interested in the blog on the $20 medical kit. I was thinking of the situation where in the event of a major storm, hurricane, blizzard, fuel crisis, nuclear attack or where transportation and communications are severely disrupted over a wide area for an extended period, it may not be possible to get to the doctor or pharmacy or if one could get there, it may not be open due to a lack of electric power or severe damage to the facility.

Instead of discussing a group buy, a more practical approach may be the development of several master lists of the items needed or names of the drugs, the approximate cost of these items, a place to buy them and the primary use of the drugs. Some obvious things needed were not included such as hydrogen peroxide to clean wounds, Pepto Bismol for indigestion, [syrup of] ipecac to induce vomiting, colloidal silver for internal and external use, a thermometer to take temperature, blood thinner for circulation problems, and curved needles and nylon thread for suturing wounds. Information to help identify and overcome dehydration issues would also be helpful. The $20 price cap may be too low. Is there a source where the general public can buy Novocain to deaden teeth for dental work, dental pliers to pull teeth, and some type of pain deadener to inject into an injury to kill the pain while the suturing is being done? Most people could not think of all of the things that may be needed and would not know where to get them if they did have the list. What is the answer to the problem of an inability to refill prescriptions because the pharmacy is no longer open? Are there substitute drugs available? Some people with heart problems, diabetes, kidney problems, and other major health problems may be at serious risk if their drugs are no longer available. Is buying drugs in advance from Canada or Mexico a realistic option considering that mail and parcel services may no longer be available after the disaster? I am talking about people with the resources to purchase these items and it would be a disservice to not include them in an effort to stay below a specific dollar limit. Does anyone know of any hospital supply companies that sell to the general public in small quantities? Some of these items are readily available without a prescription if the person can know that the item would be needed in an emergency and think to buy it before it is needed.

It may also be desirable to develop different lists to reflect different situations. The man hunting in the woods or cutting wood with a chainsaw has a totally different risk and needs situation as compared to the elderly lady who may never go into the woods or the pregnant woman who is expected to deliver within the next six months or the person on antidepressant medications.

Would some medical types, EMT, nurse, retired medical doctor, or other types familiar with these issues be willing to develop a comprehensive list to cover one or more of these situations or to provide links to other sites that may include such information to be posted here for the benefit of your readers? It would be greatly appreciated and could greatly assist people surviving in a future emergency.

It appears that most of the medical articles and books are too general and tell you to provide fluids, clean the wound, and see the doctor etc without specific instructions on what to do if the doctor and pharmacy are not available. Any information on low cost books on these subjects that provide the necessary details would be greatly appreciated. People hate to buy the book and later find that the specific drugs needed are not listed or are not available. – S.F.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Defense Aerospace reports: “Future of US Nuclear Arsenal in Flux after Peacekeeper Missiles De-Activated”  See:
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi-bin/client/modele.pl?prod=66020&session=dae.17150781.1138033046.Q9UBgsOa9dUAAGt1mV8&modele=jdc_1

 

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Reader OSOM (“Out of Sight, Out of Mind”)  recommends the recent Popular Mechanics magazine article on “Worst Case Scenarios”  See: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/worst_case_scenario/

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Check out http://www.FreeCycle.org. If you have the storage space, this is a great place to pick up free items for charity or barter.

 

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Some details and commentary on “Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran” prepared by the US Army War College. (plus a PDF link to the original document) can be found at The Belmont Club. See: http://fallbackbelmont.blogspot.com/2006/01/coming-of-bomb.html

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"For earthly princes lay aside their power when they rise up against God, and are unworthy to be reckoned among the number of mankind. We ought, rather, utterly to defy them." – John Calvin, 1509-1564

Note From JWR:

Please mention SurvivalBlog.com whenever your are a caller or a guest on a talk radio show. Keep spreading the word. Thanks!