Letter Re: The “Third Way” Approach–A Forward Base En Route to a Remote Survival Retreat

JWR,
I have been reading a longtime reader of your blog since it started, and wish to thank you for writing your novel “Patriots”, which I have read cover to cover many times and has helped me on my way to becoming a prepper.
In response to Paul’s letter for a forward location between your retreat and current home I have some ideas as well as some other good info I feel your readers could benefit from.
Now the plan of having a forward location by Paul is a somewhat good idea but like you pointed out a bit flawed.My idea may not bode well for everyone, I really think a bachelor or a family that is really into being prepared will only live this way: What you do is if you must work close to or in a city because of your job, family or other obligations I suggest you either buy a small condo/apartment or rent one. Depending on how close you are to the city/town you may find the prices can be cheap (further away) or quite expensive (closer). Not all of us can have the luxury of living at our retreat full time or having some kind of caretaker thee watching it for us.
So what you should do is simply have two locations. One location near your job, nothing fancy but a small condo/apartment like I described above should fit the bill. All you would really need are some minor supplies and your everyday use items at this location. No need to really stock it to the gills, at least have some items there in case travel is restricted, you cant leave for whatever reason, or worst case scenario you get to your retreat and its stripped. The other location of course your fully stocked retreat, in which I would go to great lengths to meet any friendly neighbors and give them your contact info (a disposable or regular cell phone) just in case something happens while your away.
The whole idea is to simply treat the city home like a in between location. Like I said this wont bode well for many people who are used to amenities, and it certainly may not work for those with non like minded people living in their immediate family. But for a single person or a family who is on board I think it could work. Perhaps in between the city location and the retreat you could have a friend and store supplies their or rent a storage unit for a year or more in advance. I know there are many storage rental places around these days as they are quite popular and you can not only rent a simple garage setup but heated units for sensitive items, closed sized units and units of all shapes and sizes. This means not only can you be sure that in the event you cant make it your retreat or you make it there and have no supplies that you have back up supplies and stuff.
You could even have a travel trailer located at either your city home or the rented storage unit so there is no real loading-just hitch it up and go. A word on proper transportation: many people do not have an SUV or at least a truck to haul this stuff with, I highly recommend you pick up in the very least an older pickup of some kind. I would recommend personally if you don’t need a lot of space or have a smaller trailer an older Toyota with either the 4cyl 22R(E) engines, the newer 4cyl engines or a 3.4L V6 model. Run away from the 3.0L V6 they once offered, nothing but headaches with head gaskets and thrown rods and such.
Sure they may not haul as much and certainly don’t fit the bill of an older super easy to maintain truck, but they are very reliable, easy to maintain once you know what your doing, and generally don’t break down unless it was a poorly cared for vehicle. Having owned a Toyota camry and currently own a T100 truck (its like a tundra only with a V6 produced only from 1993-1998) I can say the car was very reliable compared to the american made vehicles of the time (1993) and the truck has outlasted almost everything else I have seen people have and have driven personally myself. Can you really argue 190k miles on a 1996 with very minor maintenance? Same transmission and the engine was only recently replaced because of a head gasket recall that never affected me anyway. It did have 135k though, still ran like a top. Only downside is these vehicles generally can only tow a maximum of 5,000 lbs and no more while a full size can do 7-9000 pretty easily. This is alleviated if you buy a newer Tundra with a V8.
Now, if you want a full size truck I would highly recommend people to look into an older Ford or Chevy HD model. Nothing truly fancy but a decent V8, a full size or extended cab. The reason to get the HD package as it usually has a 3/4 ton suspension and much heavier duty running gear which is essential if you load it down to the gills or plan on hauling a very large trailer. I never really had problems with my old F250 circa 1991, but it never ran or held up as well the toyotas did. I wont argue that people should really buy Domestic vs Foreign, but I would suggest a person look at their needs and wants and then decide. No reason to buy a full size truck if its just you and you’re only towing a small 8 foot trailer, or nothing at all.
I would suggest that people only look for a four wheel drive vehicle. There is no reason not to own one as it will save you (along with a good set of all terrain tires) from many sticky situations, I know it has with me and I cursed driving a 2WD truck many moons ago in the winter. Again, if you can find a good deal buy it-no reason not to. One last thing, get a cap for the bed, it will easily allow you to store things hidden out of view in the bed, which is a very good idea if you don’t get a trailer.
The bottom line I think is not to keep all your eggs in one basket as the old saying goes. You just never know what the future may hold and how things may go. We could easily be totally devastated in a matter of a week or less, or slip slowly into the situation depending on the event. There is no telling how, when, and where it will happen only that it most likely eventually will happen and best you be prepared at least a little. Preparing for best and expecting the worst is the way it should be, think ahead for what may happen, you just never know..
I hope my words have given some insight to your readers and perhaps steered them in the right direction. – Marc in NJ

JWR Replies: I discuss various retreat and G.O.O.D. options at length in my book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation. There was also extensive discussion of the Golden Horde effect and related issues such as retreat locale selection criteria in the first few months of Survivalblog posts. (BTW, these posts are now available in the hard copy book SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog, Volume 1.) Staying on in the Dirty Big City in the midst of a slow slide is a risky proposition. If you have the chance to bug out, then take it! I tried to illustrate the perils of staying a day too late in my novel “Patriots”. (Namely, the experience of the characters Ken and Terry Layton, who end up taking a 1,000 mile hike to their group retreat.) Even if it means quitting your job rather than just burning up accrued vacation hours, then so be it. If you made proper plans, and if the economy staggers along (a la the Great Depression of the1930s) then you will be able to ramp up a depression-proof second income at your retreat–at least enough to put food on the table and pay your property taxes. (For some ideas, see the results of the recent SurvivalBlog reader poll on the best home-based businesses.) Of course your decision to bail out may in retrospect be seen as premature. That is certainly a substantial risk. But in my estimation it is better to be a year too early than a day too late. Being that one day too late could at the least leave you stranded away from your family, or perhaps even result in you reaching room temperature, and leaving your family left to fend for themselves.

Letter Re: More Book Recommendations

Jim,
I took some time recently to catch up on some of my backed up reading and have uncovered a couple of books that I would highly recommend to all.

The first is The Whiskey Rebellion by William Hogeland.  A historical review of a little covered event very significant in the infancy of our constitutional republic.  The book not only covers the event but provides detail into the character of many of the significant players.  A new light on one Alexander Hamilton emerges.  The book has substantial supporting notes and source cites attached.  Quite enlightening.

The second is America’s Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops by David Wiedemer, et al.  Not being an economist, I find many financially based web sites overwhelming in their information.  This book lays out for us, economically-challenged individuals, the basis of our international economic woes.  It describes the five bubbles effecting our economy: housing, stock market, foreign supported dollar, consumer debt, and the U.S. debt bubble.  It also addresses the collision of the bubbles producing a “bubblequake” which will damage not just the U.S. economy but the entire world.  Some recommendations are provided but, as expected, heavily caveated. This is a quick, easy read.

Both should be accessible at most moderately sized public libraries.  If not available in your library, you might try an inter-library transfer; most libraries are part of a larger library system.  Enjoy.
– Ken

Odds ‘n Sods:

Readers MPI and MWR both suggested listening to the Jim Puplava interview of economist Michael J. Panzner, the author of the book “Financial Armageddon.”. (Free audio podcast download. Scroll down to March 3rd–second hour.)

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“Kon Tiki” mentioned this video clip: A compressed air powered car being proptotyped in France.

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P.R. and J.B. both reminded me to mention that used concertina wire is often available at military surplus auctions. There are 37 pallets of used concertina wire up for auction right now at Fort Lewis, Washington. Those auctions end at 5 p.m. PST today (March 6th).

Note from JWR:

The high bid is still at $300 in the current SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a brand new Schecter “Warthog” Electric Guitar. This is an awesome guitar decorated in a military aviation theme, from Schecter’s Tempest series. It has a $729 retail value. Please tell any of your friends that are guitarists about this auction. The auction ends March 15th. Just e-mail me your bid. Thanks!

How Federal “Bans”, “Freezes”, and “Price Controls” Spread Economic Chaos

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I have always been a believer in free market economics. Whenever a government tries to “fix” things, it often makes things worse, and more often than not, the law of Unintended Consequences is engaged. Prohibition of alcohol early in the last century is often cited, but some of the worst cases of Federal government intervention have taken place since the 1960s. Here are a few examples:

Roosevelt and Nixon Administration Wage and Price Controls
 History has shown that wage and price controls (also called “incomes policies“) are an exercise in futility. In the United States, wage and price controls were first instituted with marginal results by the Roosevelt administration during World War II, as administered by the Office of Price Administration. Eventually, employers and consumers find ways to work their way around these laws. In his book Government by Emergency, Dr. Gary North described the wage and price controls instituted by the Nixon Administration. North showed that the law was entirely ineffective at “fighting inflation.” The only sure way to stop inflation is to stop the government printing presses and do away with fractional reserve banking. But still, governments all over the world have resorted to wage and price controls, usually with no real effect. Just two weeks ago, the outrageously inept government of Zimbabwe declared that it would jail anyone that raises wages or prices. Given the country’s current inflation rate of more than 1,200 percent per annum, I seriously doubt that the law will be a success. But knowing how Comrade Mugabe and his henchmen operate, the law may result in a few “disappearances” or perhaps even a few executions.

The 1986 Private Machinegun Ownership”Freeze”
In 1934, under the Roosevelt administration, machinegun ownership in the U.S. became subject to some pretty draconian restrictions: Registration of the guns by serial number, a background check and fingerprinting of prospective owners, and a $200 Federal tax each time a gun is transferred–ostensibly justified by the Commerce Clause. From 1934 to 1985 machineguns could still be produced and purchased by private citizens that were willing to jump through the paperwork flame-filled hoops and pay the $200 transfer tax. But that changed in 1986. Through some backroom political deal-making, a ban on new production of machineguns was slipped into a larger legislative package of pro-Second Amendment legislation, and passed by a simple voice vote. This law effectively “froze” the number of transferable machineguns in private hands, and it has been frozen ever since. At the time that the freeze was enacted, a newly-produced Thompson submachinegun sold for $950, a M1919 Browning belt fed was around $1,200, an M16 was around $800, a flimsy Sten gun was $190, and a registered M16 auto sear (the key conversion part for an AR-15 to make it selective fire) was just $150. But time has marched on, and the law of supply and demand proved itself inescapable. More than 20 years have now gone by. There are now millions of gun collectors now in their 30s and 40s that were just kids when the freeze was enacted, They are now chasing after the same frozen supply of registered, transferable machineguns. Ever since 1986, prices have risen steadily, turning machinegun ownership into a hobby that is now seemingly reserved for the rich. Presently, a Thompson submachinegun made in the early 1980s is now worth $14,000, a M1919 Browning belt fed is around $18,000, an M16 is around $17,000, a Sten gun sells for around $6,000, and a registered M16 auto sear is $15,000 if you can find one! Unless the freeze is repealed, or unless there is another registration amnesty to flush out the more than one million unregistered machineguns in the country, it is likely that machinegun prices will continue to escalate.

[JWR’s Update, January, 2023:  Registered M16 drop-in auto sears are now selling for around $60,000!]

The 1994-to-2004 “Assault Weapons” and High Capacity Magazine Ban
Thankfully now dead due to a 10-year “sunset” clause, the assault weapons ban of 1994 wreaked similar economic havoc. This ban froze the production on dozens of named models of paramilitary semi-auto rifles as well as magazines with more than 10 round capacity.

The U.S. 1995 Freon Ban
 In 1995, the US EPA banned new production of one-pound canisters of Freon R12 refrigerant. (This is the type used by individual car owners to re-charge their car’s air conditioning system.) Only larger canisters were available to “trained professionals”, during a transition period as other refrigerants deemed “non Ozone depleting” were phased in. Soon after the ban was enacted, the price of R12 cans on the secondary market spiked from less than $3 per can to as high as $60 per can! The freon ban led to widespread Freon smuggling, which is reportedly still continuing today. (R12 is still manufactured in some countries–most notably Brazil–that did not sign up to the international treaty banning Ozone Depleting Chemicals (ODCs.)

The Pending Federal “Assault Weapons” and High Capacity Magazine Ban
 As previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, a scary new piece of Federal legislation was recently introduced that would reinstate the 1994 “Assault Weapon” and magazine ban. This new bill, H.R. 1022, is far worse than its predecessor. It is much more loosely worded–casting a wide net for any guns that even look vaguely paramilitary–and puts the final decision on whether or not any particular model is deemed an “assault weapon” up to the politically-appointed Attorney general. Thankfully, it still leaves a lot of existing (“grandfathered”) guns and full capacity magazines. If it passes, I predict that its effect will be much like the 1986 machinegun freeze. Prices went up a lot during the 1994-to-2004 Federal ban, But this new one is much worse, so prices will surely skyrocket. My advice is to stock up, especially on magazines. Buy at least a dozen for each of your semi-auto guns. Buy hundreds more as an investment, if you can afford them. Again, based on the experience of the 1994-2004 ban and the 1986 Federal machinegun “freeze”, I expect magazine prices to at least triple, and possibly go much higher.

The Beloved Grandfather Clause
One of the fairly dependable parts of the American legal system is the beloved “grandfather clause.” This is the “weasel wording” that is typically written into nearly every piece of ban, freeze, or otherwise restrictive legislation, allowing existing supplies of any banned items or substances to continue to be owned, used, and in most cases transferred. These grandfather clauses are politically expedient, because they A.) minimize the political backlash against new laws, B.) minimize legal challenges to the new laws, and C.) save the taxpayers countless millions of dollars, since they side-step any challenges that a new law constitutes and illegal “taking.” (The owner of a warehouse full of banned widgets would scream bloody murder if his existing inventory was banned from sale and hence became worthless. But with a grandfather clause, the company owner can sell out his existing inventory, usually at a tidy profit. In the end, however, the factory owner is still deprived of part of his livelihood. )

Re-Prioritizing Purchasing Plans?
Federal “bans”, “freezes”, and price controls” are contrary to normal market forces, and when they are enacted, they spread economic chaos. If we lived in a perfect world, they wouldn’t be an issue. But sadly we live in a world where the majority of nation states run by politicians attempt such follies. As prepared individuals, the best that we can do is stand ready to compensate for the impact of such legislation. If the politicians are planning to ban items that we see as necessary for our preparedness, then it is in our best interest to stock up, muy pronto. If ban legislation seems imminent, then it might mean re-setting our purchasing priorities in the short term. For example, you might not have had plans to buy your “lifetime supply” of main battle rifles and full capacity magazines in the next six months. But events in the near future might necessitate doing just that.

Letter Re: Non-Fiction and Fiction Book Recommendations

Jim,
Here are a couple of books that I have stumbled across recently that I would recommend to SurvivalBlog readers.

The first book is actually a set of books written by Rita Van Amber. She wrote five volumes of books entitled, “Stories and Recipes of the Great Depression of the 1930s.” The recipes are from readily available ingredients and are simple to make. However, the stories are the best part of the book. The people of this time lived with such hardship and so little food yet they lived well and family relationships were strong. There was no whining for iPods and plasma televisions like you see today. Their survival stories are amazing and I know I learned a few things that could be utilized in a TEOTWAWKI situation.

The second book I want to recommend is a survival fiction book recently out, titled, “Black Monday” by R. Scott Reiss. It entails a scenario where a virus hits our oil supply and all the machines in the world stop working. The way the government reacts and the panic and violence that hit cities in the aftermath are along the lines of your “Patriots”novel. In other words, it is written like it would really happen – no Hollywood (like [the TV series] Jericho) “everybody is happy” scenario. The author was recently on one of the morning shows and believe it or not the technology for this virus already exists and this scenario could really happen. It pays to be prepared!

Both of these books are available on Amazon.com. Happy reading! – L.C.A. in W.N.Y.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Ben L. sent this: Shell to Offer a Biodiesel Fuel in Europe Made From Wood Chips and Straw

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A tidbit from The Daily Reckoning: “Remember, for a good part of America’s history, every dollar in your pocket was a dollar backed by gold. So it’s not so crazy to ask yourself… if America has 8,180 tons – or nearly 261.7 million ounces – of gold in reserve… how many dollars does that buy? The answer will shock you. When dollars became unhinged from gold, the printing presses at the Fed cranked up. By 1980, for every ounce of gold in America, the financial system carried $6,966 in cash. That’s $1.8 trillion total. But get this, by the end of 2005, the total real money supply shot to over $10 trillion . That’s $38,349 in circulation for every ounce of gold in reserve! “

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Yesterday afternoon, while en route to our kid’s Bible study class, I nearly collided with a flock of wild turkeys that was standing in the highway. Collisions with deer are quite commonplace in this part of The Unnamed Western State. Collisions with elk and moose are more rare, but usually horrendous. These are both heavy and long-legged animals that tend to go over a vehicle’s hood and oft-times through the windshield. But just smacking into a couple of 25 pound turkeys can do some damage. We thank God for his travel mercies!

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“This, by the way, is a good place to pause and explain to readers who will write in wondering why the United States will tolerate an Israeli nuclear force but not an Iranian one. The answer is simple. Israel will probably not blow up New York. That’s why the United States doesn’t mind Israel having nukes and does mind Iran having them. Is that fair? This is power politics, not sharing time in preschool. End of digression.” – George Friedman

Note from JWR:

I recently felled some small cedar trees in the area that will soon become our expanded garden plot. The logs measured 8 to 11 inches in diameter at the butt. I cut them to 12 foot lengths. These will soon come in handy, since I will be using them almost in situ, as posts for the new deer fence. The largest of the logs should make dandy corner posts. Here in the valley, a stout eight foot tall fence is considered the standard for deterring deer. But a very determined elk, moose, or grizzly bear will go wherever they please. Most wire fences aren’t much of an obstacle for these hungry four legged intruders. So we’ll keep plenty of extra woven wire on hand, for repairs. Oh yes, and plenty of concertina wire in reserve for deterring any two legged hungry intruder in the event of absolute worst case Schumeresque situation.

Letter Re: Unimog and Pinzgauer 4WD Vehicles

Jim,
I have been an admirer of these surplus military vehicles ever since I saw them for sale at ‘Major Surplus’ in Gardena California. They are certainly stout. I’m sure they would make a great off-road multi-purpose vehicle but if I was going to use it for any thing else, i.e. Highway, town use I’d be more inclined to just drive a nice American made 4×4. Why? Why bring attention to yourself? If you want to tell the world, your neighbors and total strangers that you are survival oriented and that you may be in the possession of firearms and other expensive gear, this is the way! That is one thing I believe we should all try to avoid. Do you want some “Dudley Doright” state trooper or over-zealous “County Mountie” to pull you over and go through your gear? Then drive a Unimog. I believe in ‘flying low to avoid radar’ and to appear like every other citizen. With a nice old Chevy, Ford or Dodge you can do just that..and spare parts (especially for the GMC/Chevy. I know, I own one) are cheap and plentiful, Upgrades to these trucks are as well numerous and priced right. I still remember seeing a [mixed] caravan of the Steyr Puch and Unimog trucks on Inerstate-5 near Oceanside, California…and I remember all the rubber-necking as well..not too low profile and not all that practical from a mechanical standpoint. Try getting a starter, rear end assembly or a crank shaft for one of these vehicles from Kragen, Napa Auto Parts, or Autozone. Nada. It ain’t gonna happen! Thanks,- Jason in North Idaho

Letter Re: The Coming Dark Age, by Roberto Vacca

Shalom, Jim
Recently I read a quote on SurvivalBlog from the book The Coming Dark Age, written by an author named Roberto Vacca. I went to Amazon.com to research it and found out that it was written in 1986, and, surprisingly enough, there were no reviews on file from other readers.
1.) Do you recommend this book?
2.) If so, what do you like about it?
Looking forward to hearing from you soon.
Hodu l’Yahweh ke tov (Give thanks to Yahweh for He is good), – Dr. Sidney Zweibel

JWR Replies: I first read Roberto Vacca’s short book The Coming Dark Age in the late 1970s. An updated and expanded edition of the book, circa 2000, is available for free download. It is worth reading, but hardly a Earth-shattering revelation. The book has a decent main premise, followed by lots of vague generalities. These are mainly extrapolations based on the precedents of when the Roman Empire disintegrated. Vacca was a member of the Club of Rome, an NGO which began as a sort of a precursor to the present-day Peak Oil crowd. They collectively predicted that “some crisis” was coming, based on societal complexity/fragility/interdependency, and would result in a multi-generational TEOTWAWKI. In recent years, the Club of Rome has focused on Peak Oil as their presumed trigger for a collapse. Used copies of the original English translation of Vacca’s original book can often be found via Amazon Shops for under $5. And of course there is always inter-library loan.

Letter Re: The Eastern Canada Gasoline Crisis

Hi James,
It’s interesting to look at what’s going on here in Ontario. The gasoline [filling] station near my office has been out of gas for two days, and others have been out for varying amounts of time. A friend of mine delivers fuel to gas stations, and was telling me what is happening:
1) There is a rail strike at CN Rail. This has prevented refineries from receiving shipments of the additives needed for diesel and gasoline.
2) There was a fire at one of the Ontario refineries, cutting production significantly. This fire occurred on February 15, and by two weeks later we are in shortages.
The Ontario Premier has asked the fuel suppliers to make sure that no towns run completely dry, and the suppliers are saying that we should be back to normal within two weeks.
Ontario has a reasonable supply of crude oil, with southern Ontario having a large number of wells. However, this situation highlights how fragile our fuel infrastructure it. One fire in one unit at one foundry, and a disturbance in the rail system has driven Ontario to a fuel crisis in a matter of two weeks. In light of this, I’m starting to realize that generators won’t do us much good when TSHTF, since we’ll be pretty much out of fuel not long after that. Even those people that have large reserves of safely stored fuel will run out eventually, and they’ll have to defend it against those people that
consider “hoarding of fuel” to be a crime. How about kerosene for oil lamps or propane for cooking? This stuff is not going to last in a long term situation.
I guess that in a long term survival situation we’ll simply revert to the natural way of doing things, getting up when it’s light, and sleeping when it’s not. We’ll walk, or bike when we need to go somewhere, and cook over wood fires, just like the rest of the Third World.
In the Revelation [of John] one of the angels is given the command “Don’t harm the wine or the oil.” These will be extremely precious commodities in times to come. Be blessed! – Chris

Letter Re: From a USFS In-Holding in Colorado’s High Country–Snowed-In!

Mr. Rawles:
I just wanted to send you a thank you note for your novel “Patriots”, your “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course and for SurvivalBlog.com. We’ve been having a winter weather adventure, which I’ve chronicled in this thread at The Claire Files. If I hadn’t found SurvivalBlog.com some time back in late 2005, it might have been a very different story than the mainly humorous tale I was able to relate. Catching up on some of your entries that I missed over time, I found one that was particularly pertinent to our situation. On February 14, you did a post titled “State and Federal Lands – Poor Choices for short term retreat locales”. The first item of concern that you stated was access, with the following specific quote: “There is also no guarantee that once you get in to public lands that you can get out. Many roads inside forest lands are not maintained in winter. Depending on the latitude and elevation, this could mean getting truly “snowed in” for the winter.”
Our retreat is on private land at 8500′ elevation, but is totally surrounded by National Forest. Our only access is via non-maintained forest service roads. These roads are never maintained, not just a case of no winter maintenance. And snowed in we did get. Fortunately our larder was deep.
So I just wanted to let you know that I’ve gratefully renewed my annual subscription to the Ten Cent Challenge. As I said, without SurvivalBlog.com, the story might have had a very different outcome. Thanks, – Karen, aka Coloradohermit

Odds ‘n Sods:

Michael Z. Williamson found this news story for us: A Glitch in the Financial Matrix: How Heavy Trade Volumes and a 70-Minute Time Lag Wreaked Havoc Upon the New York Stock Exchange

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Mike F. points to an opinion piece first published in 2003 that he asserts still has relevance: Dollar vs. Euro — Weapons of mass destruction

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Hawaiian K. forwarded this article from The London Observer: Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us. The article begins: “Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters. A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world. The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents…”