Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“It was on the Rütli Meadow that the Swiss Confederation was first formed on 1 August 1291. For 650 years, Swiss fighting men had earned the reputation as the most ferocious in Europe. Their determined refusal to live under the rule of foreign kings, was legendary. Most people know the story of William Tell, the hero who refused to bow before the Austrian governor Gessler. He was condemned to shoot an apple off the head of his 6-year old son at 120 paces. If he refused, both father and son would be executed. In a remarkable display of archery skill, William Tell succeeded in hitting the apple and missing his son. Congratulating Tell, Gessler asked why he had another arrow in his quiver. Tell responded that, had he injured the child, he would have sent the remaining arrow into the governor’s heart. Tell was condemned to life imprisonment for his insolence, but he escaped while being transported across Lake Lucerne.” – Peter Hammond



Note from JWR:

A reminder that the deadline for entries for Round 4 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest is May 31, 2006. The writer of the best contest entry will win a four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. There haven’t been may entries yet for this round, so your chances of being judged the winner are better in this round. Please e-mail me your entries, and I will post them.



More About Those Pesky CC&Rs

I’ve been doing some research this week for a consulting client this week, trying to find her an ideal retreat property. One 10 acre parcel I found looked promising, so I made some inquiries. I was told that the land was in a Homeowner’s Association (HOA) and that there were “a few” CC&Rs. So I asked, “How many?” and “Can you FAX me the CC&Rs to review?” The agent called back an hour later, and sheepishly told me: “I can’t FAX them to you, because I found out that the CC&R document runs 207 pages.” Needless to say, my client asked me to keep looking, elsewhere.



Letter Re: Update on Asian Avian Flu, by Rourke

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1716820
March 22, 2006 – why it’s not going human to human (yet)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4829858.stm

Where is it now (map)
http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/health/ph_threats/com/Influenza/ai_recent_en.htm
and http://www.birdflumap.com/
Note that there is a Yahoo group on this that John Locke hosts: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BIRDFLUWATCH/

I should also mention that a person on my group alerted me to this site on bird flu: http://www.fluwikie.com which has the most forthright presentation of what you can do and should consider as to hygiene that I have seen: http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.PersonalHygiene

Regards, – Rourke



Letter Re: Springfield Armory XD Series Polymer Frame Pistols are the Ars Nova

Dear Jim:
Well the Glock may finally have been outclassed in the self-defense pistol category! A diehard 1911 guy sings the praises of the XD for ergonomics and reliability, see this post at 1911.com. …and rates it BETTER than the Glock:

“Both have polymer frames, are square and blocky, and have the little trigger flange safety thing. The sights and trigger on the Glock are plastic; they are steel on the XD. I think the trigger and grip on the XD is better. The XD has a grip safety like the 1911; the Glock does not. The XD pistols tend to be a bit heavier than their Glock counterparts. The grip angle of the XD is similar to the 1911, and for 1911 shooters, the XD points more naturally. The rifling of XD barrels is traditional, making them a tad more friendly to reloads and lead bullets than the polygonal rifling of the Glock. The chamber in the XD is fully supported in contrast to the partially unsupported chamber design of the Glock. While both pistols are striker fired, the XD is fully cocked by the recoil of the slide, making it a single action pistol. The Glock is partially cocked by recoil, and then the cocking is finished by the trigger pull. Opinion time: I feel that the better trigger and grip, the supported chamber, traditional rifling, grip safety and steel sights make the XD an improvement over the Glock.”

And gun guru Chuck Taylor gives it a big thumbs up:

…and the XD is finally available in .45 ACP (NOT just .45 GAP)

I’ll have to borrow one from one of the IDPA shooters who sold his Glocks to replace them with Springfield XDs.

Regards, – OSOM – “Out of Sight, Out of Mind”

JWR Replies: I’ve been hearing from several sources that the Springfield Armory XD series pistols–in particular the new .45 ACP variants–are the ars nova. The only substantive complaint that I’ve heard about them is that their bluing is more prone to corrosion than the Glock’s finish. This could be an issue for those of you that live in damp climates. But of course there are always exotic gun coatings available from folks like T. Mark Graham at Arizona Response Systems.



Odds ‘n Sods:

As a follow-up to our recent item on surplus Titan missile bases, a reader spotted this fly-in dream home/bunker for New Yorkers: http://www.silohome.com. The asking price is a cool $2.3 Million. OBTW, please don’t bug Bruce James with any questions unless you are a sincere, qualified, potential buyer. And if you do you buy the place, tell Mr. James that Jim Rawles from SurvivalBlog sent you, and hopefully I’ll get a nice little “non-agent” commission.)

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Financial analyst Puru Saxena warns “Cash is Trash.”

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It is hardly a news flash for SurvivalBlog readers, but MSN Money Central’s Bill Fleckenstein reports: The Housing Bubble Has Popped

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Spot silver is recovering nicely, after the recent profit-taking. I hope that you bought on the recent dip, because I don’t think that there will be many more pull-backs that will bring silver below $12 per ounce. The silver bull will soon resume his charge.





Letter Re: Accelerating Prices for Copper and Zinc–A U.S. Penny Now Costs 1.4 Cents

Jim,
Just one more note regarding the rising cost of metals, especially copper in the market – I sent an earlier message regarding recycling cartridge brass (which contains copper) instead of stockpiling copper, but now the New York Times notes in a Saturday brief:

“Price of a Penny Could Exceed a Cent
– What happens if a penny is worth more than one cent? That is an issue the U.S. Mint could soon face if the price of metals keeps rising. The cost of the metal in a penny has climbed to almost one cent. Add in the cost of transporting the pennies, and the cost to the government of producing a penny is estimated at 1.4 cents.
The real problem could come if metals prices rise so high that it would be economical to melt down pennies for the metals they contain.
Appearances aside, pennies no longer contain much copper. In the middle of 1982, after copper prices rose to record levels, the mint started making pennies that consist mostly of zinc, with just a thin copper coating. But these days, zinc is newly popular. Rising industrial demand and speculation have sent the price rocketing. Since the end of 2003, zinc prices have tripled. Gold, by contrast, is up only about 50 percent.”

Will pennies disappear soon, or will they remain as a token of our graciousness to ‘give a penny, take a penny’? Regards, – Redclay

JWR Replies: If rapid inflation re-emerges (and I suspect that it will, soon), then those ubiquitous “give a penny, take a penny” bowls will likely be superceded by “give a dollar take a dollar” jars.



Letter Re: Countdown to Collapse

Jim:
I think we now have another way to compute the countdown to the collapse of our society as we know it.
Several months ago I read on one of the economic web sites, we both visit, that for every penny the price of fuel goes up $1,400,000 per day is sucked out of the consumer economy.
With oil at $74 per barrel today and the PENAC people pushing for another Middle East war, this one with Iran, we are looking at oil reaching $125 per barrel or higher as soon as this dumb war starts. This translates to $5.25 – $6.00 per gallon fuel by October / November.

The media and the economists are now saying that we will have $4.00 per gallon fuel by June 1 on current oil prices. One of my trusted friends is telling me that fuel is already $3.90 per gallon is some rural California cities.
I believe that the true unemployed figure here in the US is more than 12%. And, that the underemployed figure is 6% to 10% With our millions of unemployed, increased fuel costs will dry up the economy before winter this year. That means the crash will come before the first of the year.
Just using the preceding figure of $1.4MM per day being sucked out of the consumer economy the numbers look something like this.
1 cent per gal increase = $1,400,000 per day.
50 cent per gal increase = $70,000,000 per day.
100 cent per gal increase = $140,000,000 per day.
150 cent per gal increase = $210,000,000 per day.
30 days at 150 cent per day increase = $6,300,000,000 . That number is six billion three hundred million dollars being sucked out of the consumer economy in 30 days ending June 30, 2006.
Granted there are all kind of formulas to compute the disastrous affects of such an increase and my math is simple and rough, however, the American people cannot withstand such a hit and survive as a nation.
Now look at the global effects of a war with Iran. The US purchases no oil from Iran. Most of Iran’s oil is sold to Europe and other nations. A dumb nuclear strike or using depleted uranium ammo on Iran will contaminate that country for many lifetimes. Oil will trickle out of Iran just like oil from Iraq fluctuates. The price of oil will skyrocket as nations compete for available oil. The high price of fuel will curtail farming, food packaging, trucking, energy production, manufacturing, construction and the economy. The economies of many countries of the world will crash because the fiat dollar is the current primary global unit of International exchange. The Euro will crash a short time later because their central banks are tied to our central bank.
Yes, the crash can be put off for a little while by nationalizing the oil companies, major manufacturing, restricting travel, electrical use and subsidizing the farmers, but it will come regardless because you cannot build a nation on usury. Usury violates the 10th commandment and mocks God.
The lack of or the price of oil will soon bring our nation to a standstill, with or without another un Constitutional war. Civil unrest will surface and Americans will start taking out their frustrations on all foreign workers holding work visas, illegal border jumpers (the uncharged criminals living of America), the owners of businesses who hire foreigners, the banks that do business with them, foreign embassy consulates, the PACs, NGOs, churches, and the globalist in America. Under the guise of Homeland Security our anti American government employees will try to intervene and that will foster rebellion in various parts of the country. I am thankful I do not live in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, California or any sanctuary city. My brother and his entire extended family just moved to Idaho without any encouragement from me.
Now I am sure there are some economic professionals who visit this blog and can provide a better analysis than myself and I welcome their comments as to when we might expect the crash. I will go out on a limb and say, that absent government intervention it will probably come before the first of the year. Regardless, it is coming, and very soon.
Sincerely, – Rosy the Bull in Montana



Letter Re: A Good Source for Battle Dress Uniforms (BDUs)

Jim:
Here is the best place by far that I have found when it comes to quality BDUs and good prices: www.BDU.com. I have ordered from them in the past, and the next time I order I’m going to tell them about SurvivalBlog.- Gung Ho

JWR Adds: For any SurvivalBlog readers that live in sagebrush country, I highly recommend the new U.S. Army gray-green “digital” camouflage pattern. You will blend in very well in sagebrush. The only drawback is that these uniforms have some Velcro closures which are noisy.



Kate “Short Fuse” Incontrera of The Daily Reckoning on The Next Great Depression

We asked you this week, dear reader: What will the next Great Depression bring? How will Americans survive in our day-to-day lives? The responses to this not-so-hypothetical query continue to clog up our inbox, which doesn’t surprise us. What does surprise us, however, is how united our readers are on this subject. Not one message lamented on how strong our economy is right now, and how we are fools for even bringing up the possibility of another Great Depression. Each e-mail portrayed how
real this idea is to Americans – that something this bad could be right around the corner.
“A Great Depression signals a swerve in global direction, a massive transformation of the world society and economy,” says echolist.com.
“One great system perishes. The Great Depression marked a critical stage in a transformation of the global economy that began around 1900. That’s when the Industrial Economy of the 19th century slowly and fitfully began to morph into the 20th century’s Consumer Economy. To tame the almost naked continent of 1845, the Industrial Economy required immense savings. To save and invest became the 11th Commandment. Imagine. Americans saved up to 40 percent of their income!”
Apparently, we learned nothing from the events that occurred over seventy years ago. The U.S. savings rate has fallen into the negative level for the first time since the Great Depression. Debt, consumer and national, is skyrocketing. We continue to see people dig themselves deeper and deeper into debt, with no regard for preparing for the future.
“Having parents who lived through the First Depression (during the late 1920s-1930s), and having a father-in-law who was the proverbial ‘packrat’ (among other things, 7 washing machines, 15 vacuum cleaners, etc., when we cleaned out his house) they all had the mentality that nothing was wasted;
everything had value; and that what they had was of good quality,” writes one Daily Reckoning reader.
“Today we have very little of this. We do not know how to fix anything, build anything, or save anything of quality (because what little we have is made to expire and be thrown away).
“I personally can not imagine what it will be like when our dollar is worthless, and the shelves at the stores display a few dented cans of beans that are selling for whatever the price of an ounce of silver (or gold for that matter) is worth.
“Who among us will be able to keep the lights on, the water running, and our cars tuned?! What jobs will pay the best? For that matter, what jobs will be available for any of us? And what about our children? How will we care, feed, and educate them?
“I am half-empty kinda of person, but what I see ahead for the USA scares me very much (especially since it will stretch into my elder years of
life). It is going to be a very hand-to-mouth existence, with a lot of sadness, anger, and senseless violence (over simple everyday commodities).”
Short Fuse – The Daily Reckoning.
JWR Adds:
The Daily Reckoning is one of my daily “must reads.” Subscriptions are free.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Spot silver is down to around $12.00 on profit taking. If you haven’t already diversified into precious metals, then I recommend that you buy on these dips. The long term trend is definitely upward. (See the six month and one year charts at Kitco.)

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“My Night with The Minutemen” by Bryanna Bevens

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Hurricane Katrina, first hand evacuation experiences

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Gary Duncan of the Times of London on Avoiding an Economic Earthquake

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The Kiplinger Letter has made the following energy price forecasts: Crude oil early July ’06: $82 by Dec. ’06: $68, Gasoline early July ’06: $3.50 December ’06: $2.75, Diesel Fuel early July ’06: $3.50 December ’06: $3.00. Top off your storage tanks NOW.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Chinese President Hu Jintao didn’t mince words: China’s currency will stay where it is. For the second time in less than a year Asia’s No. 2 economy outmaneuvered the world’s biggest on the yuan. Last July, China announced a negligible 2.1 percent increase in its currency’s value versus the dollar. This week Hu, on his first official U.S. visit, didn’t budge amid Bush’s concerns an undervalued yuan is costing the U.S. jobs.” – William Pesek, in a recent editorial for Bloomberg.com




Note from JWR:







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