Letter Re: Investment Recommendation: Palladium

Dear Jim,
My recommendation for an investment metal is palladium. The first thing we need to look at in relation to this is rhodium.
As can be seen in the Kitco charts, rhodium’s value has gone to insane levels, due to a combination of supply troubles–Russia and South Africa are the primary sources, and neither is tremendously stable–and demand issues. As China and India develop, all the commodities will be more in demand, and India has made great strides in the last few years as is noted from this Indian American blogger. So the industrial metals in limited supply will feel the bite even more than the base metals. Rhodium is used for mirror surfaces, catalytic converters, catalytic chemistry for hydrogen reactions, including all the state of the art research into fuel cells and for some jewelry concepts.
What does an industry do when one of its critical resources increases 15-20 times in cost? They find a substitute.
Is there a metal that can substitute for rhodium in most chemical processes? Yes. Palladium. See the Kitco chart on palladium.

While I don’t see palladium making the jump rhodium has, I do expect that a lot of industries will switch over to it on some lines, just to reduce overhead. This will take a few years, as it will require modification or rebuilding of existing facilities, but once it does, I can easily see palladium at $1000 an ounce, up from the $300 or so it’s at now. The Royal Canadian Mint produces .9999 Pd legal tender coins. They Canadian coin has become so popular that the other producers have stopped for the time being.
Also, since it’s currently half the price of gold, it’s not too tough to buy the five ounce minimum many sellers want to secure a good price.
This isn’t a coin to buy for after-SHTF trading, though many will still recognize it, but it’s a good metal to have against economic issues–in demand, with increasing demand and likely to become scarcer and more popular with political problems related to any worldwide disaster plaguing supplies of rhodium. – Michael Z. Williamson

 

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Jim K. sent this one: A bright kid put together his own flamethrower. Jim K. says “…and it seems to work like a charm.” My comment: If this could be done safely, it would be just the ticket for weed control. But where are the safety precautions? Where is the obligatory head-to-toe silver fire suit with hood and face mask? Where are his buddies standing by with fire extinguishers? Do not attempt this at home!

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Steve Quayle on Ammo Shortages and Price Increases

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Reader “Desert T” mentioned that there was an interesting article in the Las Vegas Review Journal about home values in Las Vegas. The article covers the over valuation of other markets as well. Here is the link to the LVRJ story. “Desert T” adds: “It’s going to be an interesting future.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend." – J.R.R. Tolkien

From David in Israel: The 2006 Hezbollah Rocket War– A Lesson Learned

James
Sorry for the lag time, I have been very busy with Torah study and family time using up all the hours in a week. We are three days from Rosh Hashanna as I write this, the day the whole world is judged for the year (this Saturday). This past year has been tough on Israel but reinforces the reason I have chosen to live here. Our defeat on the military side is largely due to an incompetent army chief of staff and Kadima party cabinet appointments who were recognized even at the election to be incompetent in security issues but were massively supported by the media. Most of the ground combat was outside of useful information for SurvivalBlog so I will skip reporting on that. The way that almost one third of the nation rode out the war was to simply relocate. Israelis opened their homes to strangers in a way that we always have, I can still see the sparks of Abraham our father in even the most secular Israeli.
This rocket war was a big surprise to the inhabitants of our third largest city of Haifa. A major city was mostly empty for several weeks without a breakdown in civilization. The lesson to learn is that you need to find a place where the vast majority people have a true and deep feeling of family and a deep seated moral code who are willing to go to even painful ends to help out others, even if they are strangers. It would be an important goal of any survivor to place themselves in such a community since even TEOTWAWKI would not destroy the society. – David in Israel

The Moral Obligation of Survivalists, by Inyokern

The recent anti-survivalist post mentioned in SurvivalBlog dismissing survivalists is destructive. He’s entitled to his opinion. Everybody’s got one. I think that those who are brave enough and ethically strong enough to be survivalists have an obligation to their culture, people, and species to survive. It’s a thankless job, and too many survivalists go crazy from the sacrifices they make. Being a survivalist and being sane is tough because it requires many personal sacrifices. You have to balance work and home life, learning skills for independence, and skip buying fancy toys in favor of equipping yourself for a worst case scenario. Missing out on some parts of popular culture can be depressing though I’ll never miss regular broadcast television.

Some survivalists hope to make the rules if they get through a disaster, but that’s more of a fantasy than realistic, in my opinion. The real world of survivalism is having to deal with keeping secrets, ridicule, poverty, and constant training. The upshot? You learn to enjoy Heinlein’s checklist of Manhood. You learn to do things other men have forgotten, and you get the self respect that comes with it. It’s this reason I persevere, that and I’m too damned mean to die, despite my diabetes. While you and most survivalists will be heading for the hills, I have to stay near the insulin supplies and be an urban or suburban survivor, walking the tightrope between what will eventually look a lot like Fascism/1984 and rebellion in the cooling class wars as the Middle class descends into eternal Poverty. I will be learning gardening, teaching cooking to the ignorant masses, and repairing bicycles so the public can keep working their day jobs as the economy tries to stay afloat on local currency and inflated food and energy prices. I really don’t have any choice in the matter. Most of you aren’t going to be tied to civilization and I envy you your freedom. I will have to deal with oppression and probably various kinds of corruption. Like Argentina, with various differences. You will have the freedom to be your own boss and tend your own place to your own rules. Peak Oil, my particular Bogie, scares me well and truly because I understand its implications and it’s all happening in slow motion, just like glaciers, and just as unstoppable.

While that author thinks that survivalists are being selfish, he disregards the simple imperative of survival. Choosing to survive rather than go down with Titanic is hard to do. Choosing to live when others lose their humanity, to survive in order to remain both alive and human is very hard. The author of that opinion piece labors under the impression that survivalists are greedy and selfish but he’s dead wrong. Survivalists are choosing human dignity over squalor, and opting out of the rat race for moral and ethical reasons, and that’s one of the most important sacrifices a man can make. That demands respect. He doesn’t get it yet. Maybe someday he will. It’s not for us to be concerned about. We have to keep our little piece of Western Civilization together and pull through the mess that is bearing down on us like a semi on the expressway. – Inyokern

Letter Re: Swords and Bows for that Dreaded Multigenerational Scenario

Jim:

In ‘The Wanderers’ reference to keeping an example of an arrow, What he is talking about is when replacing a knock, it has to be properly indexed, so the fletching has the least possible effect on the arrow as it is launched. Obviously, you need spares, and some good glue, normally called cement in this context. The best is the kind that looks like a brown crayon, but it is hard, and you heat it with a small flame (match) and soften it . Have to be careful not to burn it, too. Then work quickly, as it sticks as it sets up. I have heard of carbon fiber arrows contaminating meat, too, but don’t know if it has really happened.
The story I heard of where the arrow splinters being driven into a shooter’s arm were from a wooden arrow that was already cracked/split, maybe from hitting another arrow in target practice. That is why when you start to get good, you get a target with several small targets on it, instead of one big one. That way, you won’t damage your arrows by hitting others already in the target.

I had a neighbor who was a WWII veteran years ago. He spoke once of something that resembled a hatchet as being more effective than the trench knife/bayonet. [JWR Adds: He may have been referring to an SAS/OSS “Smatchet”.] There can obviously be more force delivered to the object with a tomahawk than a knife, it would be better in several ways. I really like the look of one of those I saw in one of the links, but it was very pricey. I do not doubt the quality though.
The sharpest out of the box knife I have ever bought was from Cold Steel, a Voyager, that I have been carrying for about nine years now. I have a box full of knives, some nice autos, too, but I still like the Cold Steel best. It was literally shaving sharp. Not just almost. They definitely do know how to put on an edge.
I borrowed a copy of “Patriots” from a friend. I am closing in on the end. I hate it when I finish a good book. ‘Unintended Consequences’ was like that, too. Thanks, – Sid

Odds ‘n Sods:

My old friend Fred the Valmet-meister mentioned that the price of uranium ore has gone up from $7 a pound to $52 in just five years. Not a bad return.

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Reader Jim K. sent a fun link, showing a katana slicing a 9mm round in two!

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The source on this story is dubious at best, but it is nonetheless worrisome. (Six different readers forwarded me the same link.) Of course most SurvivalBlog readers are well prepared. But if you don’t yet have fallout detection and protection for your family squared away, it would be prudent to do so. At the very minimum get a dosimeter, a ratemeter (either a pen type or a survey meter), and some potassium iodate. See the links to “Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Warfare Protection Information and Gear” at our Links Page.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“A retreat is a place you go to live, not to die. Setting up a a retreat is, for the most part, practicing the art of the possible. It’s a matter of wisely and shrewdly identifying what you have and turning it into something usable… Fight if you must, but try your utmost to orchestrate events so that confrontation is absolutely the remedy of last resort.” – Ragnar Benson

Note From JWR:

The bidding is now up to $100 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a fully tested and recently professionally calibrated U.S. government surplus Civil Defense CD V-717 fallout survey meter with remote sensing capability. The meter was donated by Ready Made Resources (one of our first and most loyal advertisers). This auction ends on October 15th. Please submit your bid via e-mail.

 

The Developing Oil and Gold Price Divergence

You’ve surely noticed he recent huge drop in the price of crude oil (currently at around $62.50 per barrel, down more than 21% from its July peak of $78.40 per barrel.) Simultaneously, we have seen smaller, yet significant drops in the prices of gold and silver. (See the 30 Day gold and silver charts at Kitco.) Gold has dropped about 11%. The declines in the prices of the precious metals can be attributed to gut level trades made by the big institutional investors. Decades of experience has taught them that when oil moves significantly, then gold and silver will move in harmony. But if they had “done the math” based on the old commodities market fundamentals, they would have pushed gold down even farther. Clearly, things have changed. It is important to note that if these pull-backs were in full harmony with the oil market, then gold would be another 10% lower–as low as $520 per ounce. Why hasn’t this happened? I believe that a market fundamental has changed: the price of gold and the price of oil are no longer firmly linked. I expect this divergence to continue to expand in coming years, to the point that the price of the precious metals will begin to move on its own–almost entirely unlinked from oil. Call it what you like, but a divergence is developing.

I also predict that the markets will get even more exciting in coming months, with larger swings in prices. The oil glut is expected to continue for at least the next six months. However, at the same time, the price of gold and silver should get back on their bull market tracks, leaving the commodities market pundits scratching their heads. We live in a dangerous world, where any maniac can brew up a chemical or biological weapon, and there is a lot of fissile material floating around outside of accountable circles. Meanwhile, nearly all of the world’s currencies are entirely de-linked from reality–or at least from convertibility to gold or silver upon demand. Governments are printing paper currency and fiddling with interest rates with reckless abandon. These and other macro factors almost assure a strong precious metals bull market for at least another three years, and perhaps a full decade.

I will repeat something I’ve stated several times in SurvivalBlog in the past year: If you feel the need to diversify out of dollar-denominated investments into precious metals, then buy on the dips. And in case you haven’t noticed, this past week was a big dip. Take advantage of it. When silver is eventually at $50 or $60 an ounce (perhaps just two years from now), you will be glad that you did!

Lastly, don’t fall in love with any particular investment. As the “dot.bomb” of the dot.com bubble and the more recent end of the housing bubble have illustrated, no investment goes up forever. Keep a small core “survival” holding of silver coins for barter, but make plans to divest the majority of your gold and silver holdings as the market cycle ramps up near its peak. Do not try to time the absolute peak. Some folks tried to do just that in the last big run-up of the precious metals (circa 1980), and most got badly burned. It is often better to sell six months to early than a week too late. I’m no wizard, but based on the intrinsic value of the U.S. dollar, the peak in the current bull market cycle will likely be at around $60 per ounce silver and $3,000 per ounce gold. Don’t be greedy. Start to sell your metal holdings gradually when you think that the market has reached 70% of its potential top, and then immediately reinvest the proceeds in another tangible. In this case, I think the best choice would be productive farm land. I will go out on a limb and predict that real estate market will be nearing its bottom just as the metals market will be nearing its top. That might be as soon as 2008. Swapping gold into land at that point will be a monumental “win-win” trade.

 

Letter Re: Off-Road Campers and Assorted G.O.O.D. Vehicles

Jim,

Here is a reputable camper manufacturer that would be able to put together a less expensive camper than the $200,000(!) Earthroamer XV Diesel Off-Road RV. Though the Earthroamer is an outstanding vehicle, I believe these [Callen Campers] are more in the price range that we all expect. Notice they will custom make off road campers. witness the pics on home page. I used to see these around Southern California quite frequently. They make nice gear. Thanks, – Jason

Letter Re: Expedient Faraday Cage EMP Protection

Mr Rawles,
First…this is an excellent site and, on equal footing, so is your book “Patriots”. In my opinion so much so that in the course of habitually re-reading it I am wearing the book out.
In regards to EMP protection: an old refrigerator, chest freezer, unused oven, or for that matter, a metal utility cabinet etc. will work. These appliances will allow the storage of more than a few “delicate” and sensitive electronic devices. Having a redundant radio collection is advisable. These devices will function well as long as all six sides are metal, are electrically connected (a few nuts, bolts, washers and some 14-12 gauge wire will work as long as the paint/enamel has been scraped away to the bare metal where-ever the screws and wire contact the factory finished surfaces), has RF gaskets at all door and other openings and has grounding straps connected using the shortest wire run possible and the largest wire diameter available. Without a ground connection the shield may act more as an antenna than a shield and inadvertently destroy what is intended on being protected.
RF gaskets can be fashioned from fine phosphor bronze mesh polished and soldered into a narrow diameter tube or the ground braid component of any of the higher grade coax wire that has 95% braid coverage or better. After carefully removing the outer jacket of the coax the braid can be extracted. Solder a length of copper wire to one “wall” for the braid cylinder being careful not to occlude the braid opening. Depending on the diameter of the wire selected (RG 58, RG 8 etc.) literally any rigid foam, foam rubber or rubber material of near equal diameter can be inserted into the braid. A length of a child’s “Wacky Noodle” toy (thin gauge) will work although a soft rubber material is preferable albeit a tad harder to locate. The ground braid will function in the same manner as a Chinese finger…it will close up when stretched. Solder the ends together after the rubber core is inserted and cut to the appropriate length. Connect the previously connected wire to the item being used as a Faraday cage. Be certain that all mating surfaces are void of any type of finish. Auto body sanding paper works well for the task. The gasket can be riveted in place or an electrically conductive adhesive can be used although far more expensive to purchase. Be certain to ground the cage.
Older receiver/transceivers with discrete rather than flat pack electronics (high I.C. chip populations) are good backups and, in the C.B. class, less costly. As a note the newer radios have very static sensitive and EMF sensitive components in them and as such require a higher level of protection. Lowe’s, Home Depot and other building supply outlets sell self adhesive copper foil (a type of flashing material) that is wonderful for EMF shielding and it is solderable therefore affording complete protection if need be as long as a ground wire is connected and all seams are sealed (soldered works well). The foil is thick enough to withstand abuse and yet thin enough to be cut with scissors.
Second…do you or any of your esteemed readers know of any studies examining the results of high power EMF and their effects on solar panels? Being that the inherent design of photovoltaic arrays are such
that the interconnection on and between the individual cells forms a grid whereby the potential exists for a large EMF field to create an extraneous voltage in the panel thereby causing all sorts of damage to anything connected to it/them. I have done some search engine queries and contacted a few manufactures but have not gotten any results to date. – Joe in Tennessee

Letter Re: Swords and Bows for that Dreaded Multigenerational Scenario

James:

Michael Z. Williamson’s letter brings up some great details. I would add that those interested in bow making should consult “The Traditional Bowyer’s Bible” volumes
I-III. However, there is one grievous error: “By the way, the English longbow had better range and penetration than any crossbow.”This is utterly false. The military crossbows had
enormously more power *and* range. With draw weights in the 1200+ lbs range, even with a draw length 1/4 to 1/5 that of a long bow (and less efficiency) the crossbow can not only have significantly more power, but easily a 50 to 100 yard range advantage. Source: “The Crossbow” by Sir Payne-Gallwey, who derived his information through actual testing of surviving [pre-1700] crossbows.
Mind you, I consider the long bow to be a better choice, since it is easier to make and can be fired with greater rapidity (in general, 6 to 1 versus a windlass spanned crossbow). But a true military (let
alone rampart or siege) crossbow is significantly more powerful. – GFL

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Whenever good negotiates with evil, evil wins” – Rush Limbaugh (In an opinion piece aired on CBS evening news in its first week anchored by Katie Couric)