Odds ‘n Sods:

I just finished watching a review copy of Larry Wick’s DVD: Split Second Survival: First Strike. It teaches some truly no-nonsense practical self defense. Highly recommended! It emphasizes unarmed defense, and devastating defense techniques with always close-at-hand objects such as pocket combs and ballpoint pens. I’ll post some detailed comments in a subsequent blog entry.

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SurvivalBlog reader “Flighter” recommends this US Army web site on water filtration. He notes: “It has an analysis of a variety of water purification filters and disinfection methods, all commercially available. It is interesting stuff.”

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The eighth case of BSE (“Mad Cow” disease) has been confirmed in Canada.

Note from JWR:

Today we present three thought provoking responses to my short article "Some ARM Twisting in the Near Future." The first of these is from David, our correspondent in Israel:

Three Letters Re: Some ARM Twisting in the Near Future

James,
I wanted to help explain some of the upside to general hyper-inflation. This current well managed hyper-inflation that has been rolling strong since about 1995 went first into the financial markets and then after the dot-com-9-11 went into the overheated housing market,. This inflation is a result of the massive infusion of dollars through fractional reserve bank financing creating new money by loaning out non-existent money.
We can likely expect the dollar value of homes to not drop too far if this alleged bubble pops as the fed much like in Australia and the UK central banks try to keep the money supply inflating at the rate of an average home.
This is not yet a general price inflation. Adjustable rate mortgage holders look to see if there is a limit on your interest rate you will not likely be able to keep up with increased payments in any case.
Once the general inflation hits and the dollar (and other currencies at the same time) drop like stones people will be surprised to find themselves paying off [fixed rate] 30 year mortgages with a few months of wages. The trick to this is a person has to find an income to support even these easy payments, a concurrent deflation may also strike the economy forcing wages down versus commodities, real estate, and imported items. In biz school you would learn that an unexpected inflation acts to transfer wealth. While
it is usually a central bank trying to shake off national debt a person with the right debt structure and little or no currency based savings can derive
benefit from this transfer.
Be aware financial conditions have never been as bad as they are in all of world history, [so] plan for the change now. We are about to witness history in a big way. Most nations after a massive inflation lop off a few zeros rename the currency (For example the “NEW” Israeli Shekels.) Be aware that there has been significant amounts of
scholarly work on a near term Euro type currency merger in North America (Amero). Kol Tov. – David in Israel

 

Mr. Rawles:
One thing often overlooked is whether the mortgage is a recourse, or non-recourse loan. Most first mortgages are “Non-recourse” loans – meaning that if you lose the house and the bank sells it, the foreclosed party is NOT responsible for the difference between the mortgage value and sale price if less.

However, with most loans over 100% of the equity (U.S. Bank was selling 125% home equity lines back in 1999.), or any Home Equity Credit Lines – if the house is foreclosed, and the house sells for less than the amount owed on the note, the bank has full recourse to go after the borrower for the difference between note amount and sale price.

Same as if you have a car loan, and you total the car for instance. Most insurance policies will pay market value for the car – and if you owe the finance company more than the market value, you are on the hook for the difference. That is a recourse loan, and most loans are just that, with the exception of first mortgages up to 100% of equity. State laws differ somewhat, but in general, that is the rule nationally.

A lot of folks may try to walk away, and are going to wish they had read the fine print at closing. The bankers are ALWAYS going to act to cover themselves. My folks were raised during the Depression, and my Mother would reach out from beyond the grave if I had EVER bought a house with an ARM, or didn’t pay off the debt as quickly as possible. Going to be a lot of financial bloodletting in the next 5 years. In the 80s it was commercial property, and now residential. Amazing how quickly we forget. And with the tighter Bankruptcy Code, a lot of folks are going to have much longer relationships with their bankers than they ever thought they would. Love the site! – Sawbuck in Virginia

 

Dear Jim:
Rather than a balloon [bursting], I think [the housing market collapse] will be more like a series of avalanches, small at first, but growing each time. We are seeing this now with the “inventory” of homes for sale at an all time high. The entire market sector has slowed substantially from the heated years of growth, driven in large part by low interest rates.

Remember, in many of these cases, the bank will be OK with the 1st mortgage, is these insane 2nd and 3rd ones that will be the real problem. Still many banks over-extended I suspect, and the FDIC is too big to save.

Jim check this out – and go to the end to see that bad and the good. Note how TX is so low on the scale, interesting.

CA, FL, NY – are of course the problem areas. – Rourke

Letter Re: Canned Coffee Beans

Mr. Rawles:

The way to store coffee long-term is by purchasing green beans and roasting them yourself as you need them. Green beans (whole beans) stay “fresh” for up to a year in a normal container, like a tin or glass jar or foil lined bag. If you completely seal them off from light and oxygen and maybe even nitrogen purge them then they should stay “fresh” indefinitely, well for several years anyway. See the Terroir site below for how they store their green beans.
The thing about roasting coffee beans is that they go stale within two weeks after roasting. There really isn’t anything you can do about it either. Doing all the normal long term storage things only delays the inevitable for a little while, maybe a month or two beyond the normal
two weeks. And I do mean all things, freezing, nitrogen purging, metal airtight containers, vacuum sealing, none of it works all that well. The roasted beans will go stale faster than you want, guaranteed.
Now for a definition of stale coffee. Most Americans are used to coffee purchased at a grocery store, and most restaurants usually serve the same bad coffee made from stale beans. Any coffee (beans or pre-ground) sold by a grocery store is going to be stale by default. The large coffee companies store their roasted beans for weeks before
they ever see the inside of a retail outlet. Stale, stale, stale.
Most Americans are used to drinking coffee made from stale beans. Another thing about grocery store coffee, it’s usually pre-ground. Ground coffee goes stale about twenty minutes after it comes out of the grinder. Storing ground coffee is even more of a losing proposition than storing whole roasted beans. Don’t even think about
it. You might as well gather up some sawdust, put some food coloring on it and put it in a tin can.
How can you tell whether the roasted coffee beans are stale or not? Smell them. Stale beans smell different than freshly roasted beans. If you don’t believe me please find a local roaster or order some fresh beans over the web. Compare the beans with the known recent roast date to some known stale beans or just wait for the freshly
roasted beans to go stale themselves. You will smell the difference. You will taste the difference.
If you already have a taste for stale beans then don’t even worry about long term storage. Just use whatever crosses your path because you won’t taste the difference. Store you coffee any way you want because it’s stale anyway. Long term, short term, it’s all the same to someone that likes stale beans. Don’t even worry about it. It’s
not worth the time and effort to ensure fresh beans if you like stale beans. How do you tell whether you like stale beans? If you really like any coffee you buy at the grocery store then you like stale beans. If you like coffee that’s been sitting out on the hotplate of the coffee maker for more than fifteen minutes then it doesn’t matter
whether you use fresh beans or not.
Now about Illy. They are okay as long as you buy the whole beans and grind them yourself. As far as buying roasted beans for long term storage you can’t do much better than Illy. Just know that long term for roasted beans is not long term for most other dry consumables. Roasted coffee beans out-gas CO2 (carbon dioxide) , a pretty large
quantity of it too. It is why bags of coffee have check valves in them to let the gas out so the bag won’t burst. As the beans out-gas the gas also takes other molecules with it, molecules that make up the flavor of the coffee bean. The heavier oils of the beans also travel to the exterior of the bean. Upon exposure to the air these oils (not really oils but… ) either evaporate or change chemically and detrimentally affect the flavor of the coffee made from those beans. Where do you buy green beans?
Sweet Marias.
There are probably others but Sweet Maria’s sell beans to the home roaster in smaller quantities than you would be able to get from wholesale coffee merchants.
There’s lots information at Sweet Maria’s if you dig for it. All or most of what I’ve told you here can be confirmed there. You could even send an email to them yourself and I’m sure they would be more than happy to answer any questions you may have.
Some other links you may find useful.
Coffee Geek
alt.coffee
Terroir Coffee
Pan Roasting
There’s more to good coffee than getting freshly roasted beans but I only wanted to answer your query about long term storage. Hope this has been helpful. – A.P.

Letter Re: Preparedness-Oriented Homeschooling Curriculum

Hello Rawles Family,
We have been viewing your site for a few months after reading “Patriots” (loved it!) and have a suggested resource for other families.

We are long term veteran homeschooling family, self sufficiency oriented, husband former military (Viet Nam), ordained ministers who choose to develop house church networks in view of the likely future. We currently reside in upper northwest Montana after being in other regions gaining broad experience.

We wrote a preparedness homeschooling curriculum based on Swiss Family Robinson and a sequel based on Robinson Crusoe. The first year builds academics around family teamwork and the second teaches independent decision making and leadership. It is designed for all ages toddler through adult to learn together. Please view our web site at: www.prepareandpray.com for more info. We have spoken at many state homeschool conventions, been published in many homeschool magazines and have an excellent online review posted at www.TheHomeschoolMagazine.com

In all our awareness of current world events it is vital that our children be trained NOW while there is still time. Science can be learned by gardening, raising small livestock, using levers and pulleys doing real work, and outdoorsmanship; history can be learned by studying heroes of the faith and seasons of difficulty and triumph; health is learned with first aid and nutrition, plagues, and purity.We waste no time, money, or energy but encourage families to strongly focus for a year or two giving children skills that will last a lifetime and likely save their lives in the future. This is done vicariously through good children’s literature to avoid any impartation of fear. We train families to become overcomers, not victims.

In His Service, – Jim and Robin Brashear, Overcomers Books and Supplies

Odds ‘n Sods:

Michael Z. Williamson sent a link for this interesting piece of ordnance. Too bad about that pesky $200 transfer tax. OBTW, you gotta love the picture of that WECSOGed fifth wheel trailer hitch mount. A also BTW, I woudln’t be surprised to see one of these Anzio 20mm rifles show up in one of Mike’s upcoming novels.

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From NewsTarget: The top ten things food companies don’t want you to know.

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Market Watch: The United States is headed for a recession that will be “much nastier, deeper and more protracted” than the 2001 recession.

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SurvivalBlog reader Michael in England mentioned that there is currently an interesting thread over at the FALFiles about automobile “black box” technology.

Note from JWR:

I just added some goodies that I imported from Finland to my Mail Order Catalog, including an original Finnish Defense Force Valmet M62 field carrying case, a Valmet M62 brass catcher, and a small batch of original Valmet M62 “green waffle” magazines with lanyard loops. (These will fit other AKs chambered in 7.62×39.)

Some ARM Twisting in the Near Future

The mainstream media finally is starting to report on the nascent U.S. real estate collapse. The Los Angeles Times recently reported that perhaps as much as a half trillion dollars worth of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) in the U.S. will be “reset” in the coming year. The article mentions: “To head off potential problems, the largest mortgage originator in the United States, Countrywide Home Loans, has begun sending out letters to thousands of borrowers who have been making only the minimum payments on the company’s popular PayOption adjustable-rate mortgages. The letters explain that ‘this is an early message to alert you that, based on your current payment trends and potential future interest rate changes, the monthly payment you will be required to pay may increase significantly.'”

Given the huge number of ARM loans that were issued to anyone with little more than a paycheck and a pulse during the past three years, I shudder to think what the mortgage default rate will be in ’07 , ’08, and ’09. Mortgage defaults will mean lot of houses will be coming back on the market. And consider that the unsold house inventory already burgeoning. Houses prices are bound to just plain collapse in overvalued markets like Phoenix and San Diego. Once people are “upside down” in their mortgages (owing more on the principal of the mortgage than the house’s new market value), I predict that some of them will turn in their keys to the bank and just walk away from their houses. Mark my words.

Novel H5N1 Bird Flu Sequence in Garut Cluster?

Hello Jim:
Thought that this might be important, so am sending you a link to an article from Recombinomics. Read carefully–and between the lines. On the first page, click on the ‘alarming’ link. Then on that page, click on the ‘rapidly growing cluster’ link. From there, the next interesting link is ‘have failed to match’.
Hopefully this is not the beginning of rapid H2H transfer, but Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) does seem to be mutating rapidly. When the folks at Recombinomics, ProMED, and CIDRAP all seem to be concerned, I get just a bit on edge. Thanks, – Cactus Pete in Oklahoma

Letter Re: Do It Yourself Meat Preservation Methods

Jim,

Have there been any writings different methods of preserving meats, such as canning, drying, smoking or any other methods? I was going to try canning. Is that what you’d recommend? Any other instructions on safe methods? Thanks, – Greg in Michigan

JWR Replies: The topic has been briefly discussed in SurvivalBlog, but we ought to encourage more extensive discussion. The Memsahib and I have made lots of jerky over the years, but have never tried canning meats. Canning meat makes sense for a fixed location retreat. But for “Get out of Dodge” use, jerky is preferable. (Less weight and bulk, and no risk of breaking containers.) Detailed “do it yourself” instructions (including jerky making, pemmican making, and canning options) can be found in the book “The Encyclopedia of Country Living” by Carla Emery. Get a Ninth Edition copy. If you can’t find this book locally, I do sell copies via mail order. (See my catalog.) You will notice that we mention this book a lot in the blog. In my opinion it is an absolute must for the bookshelf of every well-prepared family.

Distance Learning College Teaching–A “Remote” Living Possibility?

Jim-
Those with an advanced degree (at least a Master’s) plus experience in education, business, government may be qualified to teach for the U of Phoenix in their online program. Before I moved to Hawaii, I taught for them for several years, the last two in the online program. The pay is generous (up to and perhaps over $1,200) for a 5-week course.
U of P. is the largest (by student numbers) university in the US–it is a quality program and if you look into it you will be impressed.
Here’s the part I thought would intrigue you: you physically meet with the students for the first and last sessions (four hours each time) only. The rest of the interaction is on the internet. You get to stay in your jammies and you interact when the hour suits you–For those not “near” a U of Phoenix facility: I lived in St. George Utah and went to Salt Lake City for the first/last sessions for the classes I taught. Although I stayed overnight at a daughter’s, it still would have been profitable if I had to use a motel. This may be relevant for those not near a U. of Phoenix facility.
If U. of P. is not feasible, other schools, public and private, also have distance learning programs which you may qualify for. – R.B.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Please check out the web site for our newest advertiser, Comet Gold, a site dedicated to analysis, commentary, and charts on precious metals and base metals investing. They also host some lively precious metals discussions at the Comet Gold Forum.

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The high bid is now at $100 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a copy “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. The course was kindly donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Please submit your bids via e-mail. This auction ends on September 15th.

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Zimbabwe’s new currency (sans three zeroes, versus the old issue) is getting off to shaky start. The old currency has been declared null and void, leaving thousands of citizens with piles of paper now good for nothing but kindling. (The currency exchange period was too brief to allow many people to spend or exchange their old bills. Some tribesmen in remote areas didn’t find out about the currency swap until after it was over.) With a 1,000% inflation rate, it is only a matter of time before prices set in the new currency no longer look like “bargains.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The first panacea of a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; a permanent ruin." – Ernest Hemingway