Letter Re: Rethinking Global Oil Reserves

Michael Z. Williamson is correct that folk don’t think about all the uses of oil in the products we buy. The sustainability of our growing population is dependent upon massive amounts of oil used in pesticides and fertilizers in order to obtain spectacularly large crop yields per acre, not to mention the harvesting, transportation, and transportation of food. Shortages of oil could have a severe impact on food production, and last year even the “moderately high” price of fuel caused a few farmers to not be able to harvest their crops.
One problem with the oil picture is that not all sources disclose or accurately portray their reserves. The Saudis have said for a while that they will increase production but in fact their recent production has decreased as they pulverize their fields with water injection. Their new ratios of heavy crude to light crude are also not encouraging. Commodity prices, particularly steel, are rising enough (partially due to Asian demand) that constructing new rigs /platforms and refineries is prohibitively expensive. The Saudis recently contracted for three oil rigs to be transferred from our gulf to their area. The internationally tight supply of drilling equipment plus unpredictable hurricanes and now recent quake activity in our gulf will likely be negative factors
The statistics of where the oil is derived from are not by themselves terribly relevant to proving why we went to war. For the explanation of why we went to war I find Mike Ruppert’s Crossing the Rubicon illuminating. The critical factor for us is that very small shortages are sufficient to cause economic upheaval in a culture that depends on Just in Time (JIT) service delivery and has most of it’s citizens profoundly dependent upon their vocational specialization. To create a crisis, oil supplies don’t need to have leveled out or decrease as in Peak oil theory, but rather if increases in demand eclipse the supply available (which may or not be increasing) that will do the trick. Demand is soaring in some parts of the world. Some of the more difficult to reach oil fields are reported to be viable when prices are high enough, but realistic production responses(drilling new fields) to shortages can be years away. Pricing dynamics are irrelevant if the BTUs required to extract the oil meet or exceed that drilled from the ground, which is an issue for some fields. Pricing does however play a role in conservation via demand destruction, which describes how higher oil prices reduce demand. Demand destruction also cools off the economy as folk spend less, which further reduces demand for oil. We may be seeing some of that now. The other factor to keep in mind is that most oil sources are politically unstable, and many don’t especially respect the U.S. Best to keep a flexible mindset, enjoy the golden age of oil while you can, and be prepared for the unexpected. – B.F.

Odds ‘n Sods:

The Rabid One mentioned that there is an interesting thread of conversation over at The FALFiles Survival/Preparedness Forum about fallout meters and the small “personal” detectors such as Nuk-Alert.

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SurvivalBlog reader Stephen mentioned that there is some interesting commentary on derivatives down near the end of The Mogambo Guru’s latest posting.

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Reader Ben L. mentioned this article about more Nanny State encroachment: Breed Specific Dog Bans

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Being a lover of freedom, when the [Nazi] revolution came, I looked to the universities to defend it [freedom], knowing that they had always boasted of their devotion to the cause of truth; but no, the universities were immediately silenced. Then I looked to the great editors of the newspapers, whose flaming editorials in days gone by had proclaimed their love of freedom; but they, like the universities, were silenced in a few short weeks…Only the Church stood squarely across the path of Hitler’s campaign for suppressing truth. I never had any special interest in the Church before, but now I feel a great affection and admiration for it because the Church alone has had the courage and persistence to stand for intellectual and moral freedom. I am forced to confess that what I once despised I now praise unreservedly.” – Albert Einstein, translated from Kampi und Zeugnis der bekennenden Kirche

From David in Israel: Chevron’s Deep Oil Strike in the Gulf of Mexico

There is a big problem with counting the Chevron Oil strike in the Gulf of Mexico because of its depth. This hit that is estimated to be large is also inaccessible using current equipment. Chevron and two other companies had to go 7,000 feet below the warm water layer of the Gulf of Mexico, and then drill miles below the sea floor for a total depth
of 28,175 feet. For comparison this is cruising altitude for an airliner, compare that depth to the 69 foot depth of the first commercial oil well in the USA. We need to first design and build tools that will let us design and build the drilling equipment needed. Let us say around ten years in the good side to get this alleged huge deposit running. The dry tundras in Canada are no picnic either since the oil production is dependant on ability to supply water and heat to the shales and tars. The easy oil is running out.

Letter Re: American Citizenry Preparedness — Columbia University Study

Jim-
I sent a preparedness study [from Columbia University] to your attention a few weeks ago; I could not find the online source document. Since it showed up in my media scanning again today, I tried to track it down a little better. I have below some associated links, and the home page (which has a great deal of additional info on it:

Preparedness Study News Article
 Columbia University Projects Web Page
 Columbia University Research Page
 Columbia University Index Page

As a side note, I purchased Arbogast’s “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course.; it has much well thought out content. FYI, Costco no longer sells the hand sanitizer in the large containers, it has been discontinued, according to the store employee, but no reason given. My personal cost analysis has in this AO (Ottawa, Canada–temporarily for me), a dollar store sanitizer product as my best buy. I just buy a few and refill the older large container.
Thanks for your good work, and broadcast loudly the release of your Rawles on Retreats and Relocation book; I am looking hard at touring Idaho and western Montana for a few acres near a small town. Thanks again, and here are the links. – William

Letter Re: DAK Canned Ham Storage Life and Date Codes

DAK hams were mentioned in a recent article as a good canned meat to store. I agree with this 110%….I’ve actually called and talked to the supervisor of DAK hams in the USA. His name is Ole he is very nice and wonderful to talk too I recommend it… Ole has told me repeatedly that DAK hams will store for at least 5 years at normal room temperatures. Ole
also told me how to read the date code on the can. its format is XXXX H or generally that way the first 2 digits are the DAY of the year and the last 2 are the digits for the YEAR that the can was sealed. so if you have a code 6006 H it was sealed on the 60th day of 2006 and would be good at least until 2011. The 60th day would be about FEB 28th. Ole has also promised that they will not be putting that new virus experiment on their hams since they are cooked and sealed and have no need for germ protection….Thank goodness.
I believe that Ole is from Denmark where DAK hams come from, you can tell when you talk to him. So I trust him a lot with DAK products…DAK hams are also very
inexpensive at $3.99 and have 8 slices of ham in them, good for any backpack venture or survival storage. They also can make a nice little gift to friends or to the poor. – Cruzan

Letter Re: Swords and Bows for that Dreaded Multigenerational Scenario

Dear Jim,
I concur on a gladius (which is the same size as a Celtic leaf blade, Greek hoplite, Swiss baselard or 18th century artillery short sword) as a good choice in swords. It’s about the length of one joint of the arm, so it becomes an almost perfect extension and usable fairly instinctively. It works better with a shield–1/2 to 3/4 plywood. A basic one can be cut from thin leaf spring stock (1/4″ or 3/16″) or riding mower blades. It works best in formation, but that’s unlikely to be a scenario in the future.
Swordsmithing more than bladesmithing is a very complex task, not for the beginner. Heat treatment is critical, and there’s a lot of metal to move. Grinding one takes longer and will waste some metal (more than half), but shavings can be recycled or melted down. Grinding means less chance for impurities to seep into the metal, and takes only a file or a stone (such as the curb).
Smithing of locks for muzzleloaders isn’t too complex, though it takes some skill tempering, but barrels are a task in themselves. What many re-enactors use for cheap functionality is high-pressure plumbing pipe. Instructions for building a rifling cutter are available in the out of print Foxfire books and others. It’s time consuming but not too complex. Be warned that this pipe will handle blackpowder, but will burst with more modern propellants. With a lathe, transmission shafts or other chrome-moly steel (4140 or similar material) can be bored and turned into good barrels for modern cartridges.
The Chinese repeating crossbow, which I have handled and shot, was intended for use by massed peasants. It suffers from several problems. First, it cannot be aimed well, as the mechanism is above the stock and (second) must be worked while shooting. Third, it is not very powerful, so fourth, it lacks range. Against even thick leather, it is unlikely to penetrate. Fifth, the mechanism is complex. However, an earlier Greek mechanism was built as a ballista for rapid firing bolts. This is a great way to disperse a crowd in a hurry–dropping a dozen spears into the midst will certainly make any charge scatter. And obviously, even a hand-held one has psychological effect for the rate of fire, especially against unarmored people. I would prefer accurate shots at greater range, however, and when the magazine loading time is taken into account for the repeating crossbow, a good recurve in practiced hands is more effective and simpler. (For note, I have recurves, longbows and crossbows in the house and compete at re-enactments at an adequate if not impressive level. I am generally biased toward recurves for rate of fire, but I prefer the crossbow if I have time to make the shots count.)
I just saw this video on archery (it’s in Korean). The interesting part for me is the great slow-motion shots of arrows in flight, showing the oscillations that they must go through in order to fly “Straight.” The arrow is propelled straight by the string, but must bend around the limb of the bow. This is something that arrows must be designed for for best accuracy. – Michael Z. Williamson, (in sword maker rather than sci-fi writer mode)

Odds ‘n Sods:

In a recent newsletter article, economist Dr. Gary North commented: “We are at the cusp of Bernanke’s experiment: to reverse Greenspan’s era of monetary expansion without toppling the bubbles that this expansion led to. Can he do it? If he can, and if he does, then he is a wizard much more gifted than Greenspan. Anyone can inflate the money supply. The trick is to stabilize it without tanking the economy after the policy of inflation is a decade old. Paul Volcker could not do it, 1979-81. Greenspan never tried. For those of you who don’t remember January, 1980, gold hit $850 and silver hit $50. The dollar was worth twice as much back then. Are you prepared for something similar?”

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Three great pieces of commentary were recently posted over at Gold-Eagle.com: “The Economy In Denial: Fallout from the Bursting Housing Bubble”,by Axel Merk, “Stay Focused on the Major Trend”, by the Aden Sisters, and “What’s Behind The Meltdown In The Commodity Markets?” by Gary Dorsch.

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Gun Parts Guy (GPG) is having a big seasonal sale on FAL and L1A1 parts. The sale ends on October 2nd. All of you that are FAL owners should check it out!

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The rifle is a weapon. Let there be no mistake about that. It is a tool of power, and thus dependent completely upon the moral stature of its user. It is equally useful in securing meat for the table, destroying group enemies on the battlefield, and resisting tyranny. In fact, it is the only means of resisting tyranny, since a citizenry armed with rifles simply cannot be tyrannized. The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles." – The Late Jeff Cooper, The Art of the Rifle

Notes from JWR:

We were saddened to hear of the passing of Col. Jeff Cooper yesterday. He was a fine American, a true Patriot, and a master at his craft. Our condolences to his wife Janelle.

Round 6 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest ends in three days! The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $1,600.) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. If you want a chance to win Round 6, e-mail us your article, ASAP. Round 6 will end on September 30th. Remember that the articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging. The following article is another entry in Round 6.

Maximizing Food Storage Life, by R.E.M.

Well, I guess it is safe to say that we have successfully dodged the Y2K bullet (still not completely sure though), which means that a lot of us that implemented food storage programs in its anticipation in 1998 and 1999 are now looking at rotating stock. This, coupled with current events, has me refocused on restocking. I have some tips to share that may be of value to readers that find themselves in a similar position.

First, when evaluating how to go about restocking food supplies, consult the Excel spreadsheet that you created when you first started to get serious about provisioning (you did create a spreadsheet, didn’t you?). If not, be sure to start one with your next major food purchase. The spreadsheet should have the purchase date of the food listed, dates for inspection, and replacement, and other important information (weight, distributor name, how packaged, etc.). This inventory becomes essential in managing large stores of food, particularly when items are purchased over a period of time. By automating your inventory in a spreadsheet, you can, with a click, sort the spreadsheet on the inspection or replacement date columns – now you instantly know what needs to be inspected or replaced. The weight factor comes in handy if your survival plan necessitates moving your stores from one location to another – either as a core strategy or a contingency plan. It is amazing how the weight really adds up. Best to know what you have before you start trying to load 1,800 lbs. of food into your half ton pickup truck!

For those folks that do not live at their retreat, but have to drive there, long term remote food storage offers some special challenges. If you do not have to frequent your retreat, then inspection and maintenance can be a logistic nightmare. Here is a trick for those of you in this situation. I like the money I save by purchasing food in bulk – especially in super pails. However, in order to test the condition of product packed this way, one has to open the pail, which essentially ruins the packaging and the long term storage capability of the package. This can quickly negate the savings you got when you purchased in bulk. The next time you order bulk food in super pails, also order, from the same supplier at the same time, the identical item in two of the number 2.5 (about 1 quart) cans. Label the cans and the bulk food in the super pails with the purchase date, but also include the the first inspection date and the estimated replacement date on the cans. Store the cans in your home, in an environment the duplicates, to the best of your ability, the same storage conditions as the bulk food stored in your remote cache. Now instead of driving there to do the food inspection, you can, in the convenience of your home kitchen, simply sample what is in the cans at the appropriate time, and have a real good idea of the condition of the bulk food you have in remote storage. This is especially handy when your food cache is a few hundred miles away!

In order to rotate your food storage stock efficiently, it is essential to accurately predict shelf life. This information is often skirted by vendors, but I found a very handy chart supplied by Walton Feed that really lays this out – you might be surprised at some of the results.

There are a lot of environmental factors that effect storage life, but probably the most predominant is that of temperature. Lowering the average storage temperature by as little as 10 degrees Fahrenheit has a dramatic effect on storage life. That said, for those of you that like the convenience of MREs and plan on purchasing several cases, consider storing them under refrigerated conditions. A 20 degree drop from 80 degrees Fahrenheit to 60 degrees Fahrenheit changes the storage life of MREs from 76 months to 130 months! For every 10 degree drop in temperature, the storage life of seeds is doubled. Not just garden seeds, but many folks store seeds to eat as sprouts. So, here is the deal – if you are going to buy several cases of MREs, you may as well shell out that extra $20-$40 dollars to pick up a used refrigerator at the local thrift store or yard sale. Drag it downstairs into your basement, into your barn, wherever, and load it up. Even five cases of MREs, at $70 a pop, plus shipping costs, represents a decent investment. Even after factoring the cost of electricity, you come out way ahead by doubling, or even tripling the length of time you can store this stuff before you need to replenish.

Yea, I know, “eat what you store, store what you eat”….”rotate your stock”…etc. All sage advice. So, you mean that none of us have a bunch of outdated MREs laying around, right? Right. Don’t forget that through refrigeration you can now also greatly enhance the storage life of injectable antibiotics, some prescription medications, bakers yeast, etc.

And date label everything. It irritates me that MREs aren’t date labeled. I like the way cases are packaged, with the heavy duty cardboard box and neat little plastic bands, but open each case, and date each individual MRE. Once they “get loose”, all is lost – so don’t just date the case on the outside of the box. I recommend repackaging them though, in their original heavy duty case boxes and storing them that way, just in case you need to “grab and go”.

I have been looking for a way to augment my dehydrated food storage with some real yummy stuff, like real meat. Not that I don’t love pigging out on TVP…Yum. The freeze dried option for meat is great, but it is very expensive. What I discovered is that you can actually store a lot of meat fairly cheaply. I am finding that with a little patience in my shopping, I can find canned salmon and tuna fish with late 2010 expiration dates. That’s four years! DAK hams, canned in Sweden and sold through Wal-Mart are also an excellent low cost, long term option for meat storage. Four years is a considerable term for meat. And that is calculated at room temperature. If refrigerated, these canned goods will keep much, much longer. Meat that is home canned, such as elk, deer, and small game, can also be stored in the fridge for extended life. Just use some common sense. Never open a can that is bulging (just pitch it), and be sure that all meats stored this way are well heated (including precooked hams, etc.) prior to eating. The heat destroys the toxicity of salmonella toxin, which is odorless, tasteless, and very nasty stuff. I have enjoyed home-canned squirrel stew and other canned-then-refrigerated game meats for many, many years after they have been canned with no problems at all.

I’m sure many SurvivalBlog readers have additional tricks and tips when it comes to long term food storage. Now would be a good time to share them. Did I mention that I am restocking? – R.E.M.

Letter Re: Questions on the Pickup Truck as a Multi-Purpose Retreat Vehicle

Dear Jim and loyal SurvivalBlog readers:
I have been researching pickup trucks as my next logical purchase in preparation for the inevitable short or long-term SHTF/grid-down scenario.
I have decided that I will purchase an older (pre-1990/EMP-resistant), diesel, 4 x 4 pickup truck, probably a Ford, but maybe a Dodge or GMC/Chevy. The truck will need to be powerful enough to tow whatever (trailer, boat, camper) as well as be able to effectively plow snow (living here in snowy New England after all). My decision is based on reading the many postings on SurvivalBlog regarding the best G.O.O.D. vehicle to own (or at least, one of the best).
However, before investing several grand in 2006 dollars, I would greatly appreciate some guidance on the very best trucks to consider regarding the following questions (and my budget of around $3,000 to include plowing capability):
What years should I consider for each manufacturer to ensure that the truck is not vulnerable to an EMP?
1.) I want to be able to plow with this truck. Would I be better off to buy a truck that has never plowed and then outfit it with a plow? Or, should I buy a truck that is already equipped to plow?
2.) I seem to be leaning towards a Ford as there appears to be more Fords available than the others. Then there are the model variables to consider: 150, 250 and 350… Any personal opinions on makes and models are most welcomed.
3.) What is the best (most reliable) older diesel engine made? What kind of engine longevity could I expect (200K, 300K) considering the make and vehicle’s overall condition?
4.) Please advise on any other purchase issues I should consider.

Thank you for your time and attention and may God bless you and your families and keep you safe, faithful, and hopeful. – David J. in New England

Odds ‘n Sods:

Our friend Simon mentioned this article at WorldNetDaily: The city of Cooper City, Florida, has given itself the power to seize residents’ personal property in times of emergency.

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The bidding is still at $180 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a fully tested and recently professionally calibrated U.S. government surplus Civil Defense CD V-717 fallout survey meter with remote sensing capability. The meter was donated by Ready Made Resources (one of our first and most loyal advertisers). This auction ends on October 15th. Please submit your bid via e-mail.

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The big sale at Mountain Brook Foods (a storage food vendor in Tracy, California) with discounts from 20% to 40% ends on September 30th. Our readers that live in the East S.F. Bay area or in the Central Valley might want to go visit them and pick up their first order in person.That will eliminate the cost of shipping, which is otherwise considerable.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“If you don’t understand weapons you don’t understand fighting. If you don’t understand fighting you don’t understand war. If you don’t understand war you don’t understand history. If you don’t understand history, you might as well live with your head in a sack.” – The Late Col. Jeff Cooper.