Note from JWR:

I just added some goodies that I imported from Finland to my Mail Order Catalog, including an original Finnish Defense Force Valmet M62 field carrying case, a Valmet M62 brass catcher, and a small batch of original Valmet M62 “green waffle” magazines with lanyard loops. (These will fit other AKs chambered in 7.62×39.)

Some ARM Twisting in the Near Future

The mainstream media finally is starting to report on the nascent U.S. real estate collapse. The Los Angeles Times recently reported that perhaps as much as a half trillion dollars worth of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) in the U.S. will be “reset” in the coming year. The article mentions: “To head off potential problems, the largest mortgage originator in the United States, Countrywide Home Loans, has begun sending out letters to thousands of borrowers who have been making only the minimum payments on the company’s popular PayOption adjustable-rate mortgages. The letters explain that ‘this is an early message to alert you that, based on your current payment trends and potential future interest rate changes, the monthly payment you will be required to pay may increase significantly.'”

Given the huge number of ARM loans that were issued to anyone with little more than a paycheck and a pulse during the past three years, I shudder to think what the mortgage default rate will be in ’07 , ’08, and ’09. Mortgage defaults will mean lot of houses will be coming back on the market. And consider that the unsold house inventory already burgeoning. Houses prices are bound to just plain collapse in overvalued markets like Phoenix and San Diego. Once people are “upside down” in their mortgages (owing more on the principal of the mortgage than the house’s new market value), I predict that some of them will turn in their keys to the bank and just walk away from their houses. Mark my words.

Novel H5N1 Bird Flu Sequence in Garut Cluster?

Hello Jim:
Thought that this might be important, so am sending you a link to an article from Recombinomics. Read carefully–and between the lines. On the first page, click on the ‘alarming’ link. Then on that page, click on the ‘rapidly growing cluster’ link. From there, the next interesting link is ‘have failed to match’.
Hopefully this is not the beginning of rapid H2H transfer, but Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) does seem to be mutating rapidly. When the folks at Recombinomics, ProMED, and CIDRAP all seem to be concerned, I get just a bit on edge. Thanks, – Cactus Pete in Oklahoma

Letter Re: Do It Yourself Meat Preservation Methods

Jim,

Have there been any writings different methods of preserving meats, such as canning, drying, smoking or any other methods? I was going to try canning. Is that what you’d recommend? Any other instructions on safe methods? Thanks, – Greg in Michigan

JWR Replies: The topic has been briefly discussed in SurvivalBlog, but we ought to encourage more extensive discussion. The Memsahib and I have made lots of jerky over the years, but have never tried canning meats. Canning meat makes sense for a fixed location retreat. But for “Get out of Dodge” use, jerky is preferable. (Less weight and bulk, and no risk of breaking containers.) Detailed “do it yourself” instructions (including jerky making, pemmican making, and canning options) can be found in the book “The Encyclopedia of Country Living” by Carla Emery. Get a Ninth Edition copy. If you can’t find this book locally, I do sell copies via mail order. (See my catalog.) You will notice that we mention this book a lot in the blog. In my opinion it is an absolute must for the bookshelf of every well-prepared family.

Distance Learning College Teaching–A “Remote” Living Possibility?

Jim-
Those with an advanced degree (at least a Master’s) plus experience in education, business, government may be qualified to teach for the U of Phoenix in their online program. Before I moved to Hawaii, I taught for them for several years, the last two in the online program. The pay is generous (up to and perhaps over $1,200) for a 5-week course.
U of P. is the largest (by student numbers) university in the US–it is a quality program and if you look into it you will be impressed.
Here’s the part I thought would intrigue you: you physically meet with the students for the first and last sessions (four hours each time) only. The rest of the interaction is on the internet. You get to stay in your jammies and you interact when the hour suits you–For those not “near” a U of Phoenix facility: I lived in St. George Utah and went to Salt Lake City for the first/last sessions for the classes I taught. Although I stayed overnight at a daughter’s, it still would have been profitable if I had to use a motel. This may be relevant for those not near a U. of Phoenix facility.
If U. of P. is not feasible, other schools, public and private, also have distance learning programs which you may qualify for. – R.B.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Please check out the web site for our newest advertiser, Comet Gold, a site dedicated to analysis, commentary, and charts on precious metals and base metals investing. They also host some lively precious metals discussions at the Comet Gold Forum.

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The high bid is now at $100 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a copy “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. The course was kindly donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Please submit your bids via e-mail. This auction ends on September 15th.

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Zimbabwe’s new currency (sans three zeroes, versus the old issue) is getting off to shaky start. The old currency has been declared null and void, leaving thousands of citizens with piles of paper now good for nothing but kindling. (The currency exchange period was too brief to allow many people to spend or exchange their old bills. Some tribesmen in remote areas didn’t find out about the currency swap until after it was over.) With a 1,000% inflation rate, it is only a matter of time before prices set in the new currency no longer look like “bargains.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The first panacea of a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; a permanent ruin." – Ernest Hemingway

Note from JWR:

The high bid is now at $85 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a copy “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. The course was kindly donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Please submit your bids via e-mail. This auction ends on September 15th.

The Coming Energy Crisis: Hubbert’s Peak Or Not–Be Prepared!

There has been a lot of ink spilled in recent years, debating the Hubbert’s Peak (“Peak Oil”) theory. FWIW, I am a believer in global oil depletion, but I think that those in the “Peak Oil” crowd are about 20 to 25 years too early in their predictions.

In my estimation we cannot depend on the slow-moving bureaucracies of national governments to rescue us from the coming energy crisis. Even if we were t overcome the problem in the First World, the second World and the Third World–with less money available for massive crash programs and probably with a more short term perspective–will likely be plunged into a second Dark Age. At the minimum that means famines, monumental migrations, huge economic dislocations, and world wars, all likely sometime later in this century. And even if our generation muddles through, we should make preparations on behalf of our children and grandchildren.

Every well-prepared family should have an alternative energy production capability. Buy this I do not mean just buying a backup power generator. I’m talking about the minimum of a six panel photovoltaic (PV) power system with a large capacity battery bank, charge controller, and a sine wave AC inverter. If you need advice on sizing and building a PV system, talk to Bob at Ready Made Resources. He offers free consulting. Take advantage of his consulting offer! Gravity fed spring water is ideal, but if you are on well water, you need to plan ahead to make your own power to operate your well pump.

Parenthetically, since lead acid batteries only have a useful life of about eight years, it is prudent to buy an extra set of dry deep cycle (“golf cart” or “marine”) batteries for your PV system. (Even if kept charged and not charge cycled, the plates will still gradually sulfate.) Ask your local auto parts store or golf cart dealership about special ordering a dry set of batteries (with no acid added), and separate “carboys” of acid, through their battery distributor. If they scratch their heads and give you dumb looks, then you might have to talk to a battery distributor (such as Interstate Batteries), directly.

If you are thinking likewise, then you should consider buying a retreat property with its own source of fuel: A natural gas well or a surface coal seam on the property would be fantastic (although of course quite rare), but at least buy land with a good stand of hardwood timber. To supplement your PV system, you might start shopping for a large yet easy to maintain steam engine with a power take off to run a generator and to handle other stationary engine tasks. (One wag recently built a steam power plant to run his iMac.) A third generator option is buying is a steep parcel of land with a fairly large creek running through it, for a Penstock-fed Pelton wheel micro-hydro generator. These are offered by several makers. What about wind power? Because of their high maintenance and the risks associated with tower climbing, I generally don’t recommend wind turbines. They just don’t make sense for most users, especially since PV panels have come down so far in price per watt in recent years. But if you live in a very windy area with lots of cloud cover, a wind generator might be a viable option.

Petroleum means more than just fuel. It is the petroleum industry that has brought huge population increases, with the advent of inexpensive fertilizers. An end to cheap and plentiful fertilizers will probably mean starvation, war, and perhaps a significant global die-off. Petroleum also means lubricants. Stock up on lubricants of all types. As I previously noted in SurvivalBlog, one of the most important to store is two cycle oil. (For mixing chain saw gasoline.) That will be like gold in the event of TEOTWAWKI — a barter item second only to common caliber ammunition.

Lastly, think in terms of transportation in an era when gasoline is very scarce and precious and when ethanol and and biodiesel are sporadically available but nearly as expensive as gas. Make every subsequent vehicle that you purchase either a diesel or an E85 “flex fuel” variant. (The latter are capable of running on 85% ethanol.) It takes a bit of extra looking to find them, but someday you will be glad that you did. (BTW, you can locate slightly used flex fuel vehicles via Edmunds.com. Enter “flex fuel” or “E85” as search variables.) Here at the Rawles Ranch, our primary “goin’ in to town” rig is an E85 fleet variant of the 2003 Ford Explorer 4WD. And when our little 32 MPG run-about finally dies, it will be replaced by a flex fuel compact of some sort. For maximum versatility, at least one vehicle at your retreat should be a diesel. Perhaps your next crew cab 4WD pickup, your next tractor, or your next “quad” ATV. (Yes, they do make diesel engine ATVs, but they are harder to find.)

Here is some real gloom ‘n doom for you to consider: To plan for an absolute worst case multi-generational whammy, you will need to buy some livestock including horses and/or donkeys. Remember that you will need to feed those critters, so buy a piece of land with both good pasture and hay fields. Build an over-sized hay barn. The day may soon come that grass hay and alfalfa will no longer be just a phone call away and be magically delivered on a truck and stacked for +/- $110 per ton. One nice thing about owning horses/donkeys/mules is that they can harvest their own feed. But that is only if you plan ahead and buy a hay mower and horse collars/tack and you train your horses to pull the mower. Planning for the next Dark Age gets rather complicated…

Six Letters Re: The Ethanol Debate

Sir:
Regarding ethanol, the amount of fossil fuel or equivalent slave labor wage work make ethanol driving a exclusive privilege of the wealthy. Brazil has the world’s highest percentage ethanol from sugar cane for motor fuel. US use of current corn ethanol processes are petroleum negative and only feasible due to massive taxpayer subsidies.

If the readers of SurvivalBlog are expecting to have motor power in the age of ethanol I realistically suggest keeping down to a small displacement engine motorbike and maybe a chainsaw.
Electricity is much higher watt per acre from water solar or wind and bicycle horse or donkey cart is the best mile per acre fuel utilization. Just because a person grew up in the day of (almost) free petroleum does not mean this is a normal situation. Realistic economic study shows that the growth since the industrial revolution was due almost completely to the addition of (almost) free energy (fossil fuel) and using that power in machines that multiplied the possible man hours of work per hour a person could accomplish. Without a rising supply curve of available energy, I can see no realistic way for our 200 year level of progress to continue or to exist again.- David in Israel

 

Jim,
Engineer Steven Den Beste dealt with “alternate energy” theme some time ago. See this article. And this one.
Bottom line: Unless we’re willing to seriously reconsider reprocessing nuclear fuel and set about building breeder reactors on a monumental scale (as in a project of the magnitude of the ’60s “space race” extended for several decades) we’re not going to rid ourselves of our need for foreign oil. (I’m aware of the need for liquid fuel for transportation. Given sufficient energy, methanol may be reduced from water and carbon dioxide. But, this requires something on the scale of a nuclear reactor to make the process worthwhile.)
Biodiesel, ethanol, solar, wind, geothermal and other marginal sources of energy are fine for limited, small-scale uses. (If you need to fill a stock tank from a desert well 20 miles from the nearest power line, a windmill’s a great idea. Biodiesel is a great way of getting rid of french fry oil.) They are not worth considering as a primary means of powering our civilization. They simply cannot scale to that level. Yet, the problem is not that we are running out of energy. It is that we are deliberately choosing to freeze in the dark in the midst of plenty.
Think I’m exaggerating? Take a look at the nation’s most populated State. Regards, – Moriarty

 

Hi Jim,
I had a big conversation with a local liberal about Ethanol a few months back. She was all gung-ho about how it would save us and the environment until I presented her with the facts below. Now she rarely talks to me. Oh well.

While it is true that ethanol can be made out of the stalks, etc of the crops that have already been harvested, most of the energy of the plant is directed toward making the seeds – which is where most of the sugars, etc. that are needed to ferment into alcohol are. From what I understand, using the “waste” you get an even lower return on investment (ROI) than what I list below.

From my “conversation”:

Ethanol has some good points but it has many bad points as well. First, pollution – Ethanol, when burned in an internal combustion (IC) engine, produces less carbon monoxide (CO) but it produces more nitrogen oxide which is the main element of smog and because it has a lower latent heat of vaporization it evaporates more rapidly than gasoline which also leads to more pollution. Second, Gasoline has more energy per gallon than ethanol – about 50% more in fact. So you car that gets 30 mpg on gas can get only 20 mpg on ethanol – IF it can run on ethanol. Very few cars can run on more than 10% ethanol. Third – and worst of all – is that it takes a lot of energy to grow the crops used to brew up the ethanol. In some cases it takes up to 6 (yes six!) times the amount of energy to create the ethanol as it actually provides. In virtually ALL cases it takes more than a 1:1 ratio to produce it so ethanol will actually INCREASE our use of fossil fuels.

See this Energy bulletin article.

This accounting includes every step of the process from shipping the grain to its place of planting, plowing, planting, fertilizing and use of pesticides (both of which require fossil fuels to create), harvesting, transportation to the site of distillation, then the fuels required for that process and finally transportation to its site of final use.

Bio-diesel is better in the ROI department with it returning about 3 times the energy it takes to grow it. However this is appallingly low compared to gasoline which supplies 30 times the amount of energy it takes to produce. If you think gasoline is expensive these days, try bio-diesel which is likely to cost 10 times as much.

Now, if you drive your 30 mpg car 10,000 miles in a year using ethanol (now it is 20 mpg) you would need 500 gallons of ethanol to get you through the year. According to this site: (http://science.howstuffworks.com/question707.htm)
that would require 1.84 acres of corn. Since there are about 200 million cars in the US, if even a third of them drive 10k miles per year then we would need 122 million acres of crops just to provide fuel for our vehicles. Since the US has about 360 million acres of farmland and only about 43 million acres of that is considered prime farmland where will we grow all this fuel?
Ethanol sounds wonderful, but it is NOT a reasonable substitute for fossil fuels. Regards, – Tim P.

 

James:
This link contrasts other reports that ethanol is energy negative. – Bill in Indiana

 

Dear Jim:
Lately, politicians have been extolling the virtues of ethanol as the cure to our energy woes. For the heck of it, I decided to look into this (energy in vs energy out), after all I am a scientist. Ethanol production makes some interesting assumptions. It assumes that we can produce enough to make it worth our time.
The answer is ‘yes and no’.
As long as the crop, fermentation facility, distillation facility (processing) and end user are next to each other (to negate losses in transportation), it looks iffy, but possibly ok. This ignores the COST of production, only the energy surplus from the crop. However, a bad year may wipe out any energy gains, same for long transportation distances, etc. There was a study done some years ago that looks at several bio- fuels and biodiesel looks to be the most promising to me. NOT ethanol. A synopsis of the study can be found here and here.

This tells me we are putting our time and money into a marginal process with ethanol and that biodiesel looks more promising, at least on paper – implementation may be just as bad. But just based on this study, you would need to burn 3 billion barrels of ethanol to produce 4 billion barrels, giving you a net gain of 1 billion for use in the populace in general. What is wrong with that picture?
Another trouble I for see is the Sierra Club, Earth First, Congress, and similar organizations screwing things up, even if it were feasible and cost efficient. Suddenly we will need to put a LOT more farmland into production; and this may mean such sundry items as forests may need to be cleared, water diverted for irrigation, and vast capital invested into big, oily plants. The iron and synthetics to build those plants need to come from somewhere, perhaps where there are spotted owls…..
I work in the chemical industry, supplying specialty chemicals for pharmaceutical research. I am well aware that petroleum is a finite resource and an extremely useful one:
http://www.ioga.com/special/petroproducts.htm
http://www.anwr.org/features/oiluses.htm
I can see the need to get going on nuclear plant construction and development of these other energy sources. I think ethanol will not be worth it until they can get cellulose ethanol up and running. Even then, depending on costs, it may not be worth it. Right now they have to use expensive sugars (starch), which could be used for something else. Cellulose just gets plowed under each year. And as I stated before, we are just looking at energy surpluses, NOT COSTS. I don’t think anyway wants to burn ethanol if it costs $10/gallon to produce… Then there are other issues, such as the current drought from Texas up into the Mid-west that would also impact your gas tank. And of course you need fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides to farm corn.
The problem has never been a lack of an available solutions, only that politicians are seldom legislating based on common sense, looking at cost/benefits, but instead are usually legislating based on who pays their bills. Regards, – Jim

 

Mr Rawles:

If you can make sugar from something, you can make ethanol. Cows eat hay, which is for the most part cellulose, which is made up of starch. Enzymes in a cows stomach(s) break down the cellulose into molecules of starch, which are further converted into glucose, which is then used by the cow for energy. All animals which eat hay do this. The enzyme responsible for most of the cellulose breakdown is called “cellulase”. See this article for some scientific background on cellulase enzyme research. – H.L.

Odds ‘n Sods:

I have once again updated and expanded the SurvivalBlog Glossary. Let me know if I missed any terms or if you spot any errors. Thanks!

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Reader “The Rabid One ” mentioned this article from The Guardian, about search engine privacy. He notes: “The story is of Google’s storing of search data and the user’s IP address. It also references a couple search engines that do not keep such data.” I agree with the advice to stop using Google. They log not only IP addresses but also your search phrases. Taken out of context, in a courtroom someday far in the future, those search phrases might be misconstrued. I also recommend that anyone concerned with their privacy use a secure browser interface such as Anonymizer or  StealthSurfer.

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Don’t miss the article “The Secret Price of Gold” by Kevin DeMeritt, posted over at Gold-Eagle.com. Here are a few quotes from DeMeritt’s piece:
“After peaking in 2001, world gold production has been steadily slipping.”
“In terms of today’s dollars, gold reached $2,176 in 1980.”
“Back in 1980, the price of an average new car was $7,609, while, according to Car and Driver magazine, the average cost of a light vehicle today is $27,800.”

Note from JWR:

The high bid is still at $75 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a copy “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, (Normally $149, retail.) The course was kindly donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Please submit your bids via e-mail. This auction ends on September 15th.

Letter Re: Uses for CONEXes at a Retreat

Jim,
Here are a couple more thoughts on CONEX containers . . . or shipping containers in general.
If you are using them for storage, be aware that uninsulated containers (more abundant) tend to sweat and cause moisture damage to the items being stored. My solution was to buy only insulated refer trailers, which can sometimes be purchased for even less money than 40 ft. shipping containers. In either case, it’s very important to waterproof the roof as much as possible. Sometimes a secondary roof is advisable.
Another method to secure as much as storage space for the dollar is to place two containers parallel to each other about twenty to twenty-five feet apart, then build a roof structure in between. In fact, some of these new metal roof structures that are available can be specially ordered to fit whatever dimensions you may need. – C.B.

Two Letters Re: EpiPen–Another Item for the Retreat Medical Kit

Jim:
I also wanted to send you a comment about the Epi pen. The injection of epinephrine (“Epi”) is in large part an informed decision that with a little experience or training is an easy call to make. Epinephrine or adrenaline is only to be used when there is a directly life threatening emergency so most of the concern with cardiac stress is overruled by the overriding need to have a open airway. Children can survive amazing amounts of epi without stressing their hearts so in a life or death airway case give the pen. Benadryl is also on the top of meds to have in your bag, chewed or crushed it absorbs almost as quickly as injected does and is indicated after the epi starts to work (your patient will need water as the epi will stop all saliva flow.)
Benadryl (Diphenhydramine Hydrochloride) has almost no bad side effects and (after consulting your doctor) is very safe even for toddlers.
Benadryl is also good for sleep aid and motion sickness.
As always my comments assume that the reader has either years of advanced medical training and field experience or a qualified instructor at hand to consult. – David in Israel

 

Jim,
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. So is a lot, in the wrong hands, but you’re still likely to be better off with it than without it:
emedicinehealth.com

AAFP on Anaphylaxis

emedicine.com on Anaphylaxis

BTW, diphenhydramine (Benadryl) does not “treat the cause” of anaphylaxis. It reduces the effects of histamine release, which is triggered by an immune response. It is a useful adjunct to epinephrine. It will not prevent airway compromise or vascular collapse! In no way is Benadryl alone an adequate treatment for anaphylaxis, nor will it reliably prevent a life-threatening recurrence after initial treatment with epinephrine. (This latter seems to have found its way into the folklore of “bee sting allergies.”)

OBTW, if you get an EpiPen, get a “2-Pak.” (They’re now being packaged that way.) Although epinephrine can be life-saving, more than one dose may be necessary. (Discuss this with your physician.) One pen is not sufficient.

Persons with a history of anaphylaxis should see their doctor and inquire about desensitization treatment. The best way to treat anaphylaxis is to prevent it.

I cannot overemphasize the necessity of obtaining competent medical advice before using epinephrine and the need to obtain competent medical care after using it. Failing to administer epinephrine in a timely manner can be lethal, but using it incorrectly will make you just as dead. Regards, – Moriarty