Note from JWR:

Today we present a guest editorial by the well-known global economics analyst J.R. Nyquist. I’ve always found his writings captivating. His archives hold some real treasures. This particular article meshes nicely with my observations on the fragility of our modern technological society.

Specialization and Decline, by J. R. Nyquist

Years ago, when the West entered onto a path of decadence, it became fashionable to deny the historical consequences of permissiveness and bad behavior. As the old standards fell away, new standards of “tolerance” and “acceptance” took hold. With the fall of colonial empires and the upsurge of student radicalism in the sixties, the notion of “barbarians at the gates” became outdated. Heaven forbid that anyone should be described as a “barbarian” or as “uncivilized.” The idea that some peoples were more advanced, that some civilizations had more to offer, was no longer an acceptable way to talk. The fall of the Roman Empire, therefore, had to be billed as a “transition.” The barbarians were not the bad guys, civilization did not collapse, and the Romans were hardly degenerate. One should not use words like “decline” or “fall.” Perhaps such words hit too close to home. Better to deny the very history of decadence. Consequently, Edward Gibbon’s magisterial History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire is no longer entirely respectable. In James J. O’Donnell’s expertly crafted, politically corrected version of the fifth and sixth centuries, The Ruin of the Roman Empire, we find Gibbon’s work described as the “long shadow of a short, fat man” darkening our understanding of the Roman world. It is not the fall of Rome that is dark, but Gibbon himself!

The American Heritage Dictionary defines decadence as: “A process, condition, or period of deterioration or decline, as in morals or art.” The fall of the Roman Empire involved an across-the-board decline. This included, as in our own time, a decline in population. Sizeable military defeats shrugged off by the Roman Republic were crippling to the Roman Empire. In the centuries between the battles of Cannae and Hadrianopolis there occurred a loss of vitality. Sophisticated manufactures in the west Roman world largely disappeared within a period of three lifetimes. Literacy, comfort and trade also collapsed. This was the greatest economic downturn in the history of mankind. According to the historian and archaeologist Bryan Ward-Perkins, “In the post-Roman west, almost all this material sophistication [created by the Roman civilization] disappeared. Specialized production … became rare, unless for luxury goods; and the impressive range and quantity of high-quality goods, which had characterized the Roman period, vanished, or, at the very least, were drastically reduced.”

Civilization doesn’t always move in an upward direction. Decline and fall is more than possible; such has actually happened. Over the last five hundred years we have come to think of civilization as barreling forward, plowing the ground for further progress. Nothing can stop the machine-like advance, the steady rate of accumulation. Today we take civilization’s continuance for granted. In this regard, the history of Rome is an irksome reminder.
But we’re smarter than the Romans, right?

The Roman economy began to move downhill around the fourth century. There was widespread enervation, a loss of intellectual acuity within the elite. Effeminacy had taken hold at a time when warfare was hand-to-hand. Incredible as it seems, the Roman Empire became vulnerable to a relatively small number of barbarian tribesmen. After penetrating the empire’s frontier, these tribesmen found easy pickings within a defenseless interior. When the legions were lost or decoyed, entire regional economies were plundered and ruined. In the fifth century, when the western half of the Roman Empire was invaded by barbarians, the city of Rome lost three quarters of its population. That is to say, Rome lost 600,000 out of 800,000 inhabitants. Such was the magnitude of the massive de-urbanization that occurred.

What led to Rome’s weakening? In describing the city of Rome in the middle of the fourth century, Ammianus Marcellinus wrote of the vanity and materialism of his contemporaries. Rome became great through virtue, he argued, and virtue had given way to vice. Decades before the barbarians broke into the empire, causing the economy to unravel, the Romans were focused on entertainment and self-gratification. “In this state of things,” wrote Marcellinus, “the few houses which once had the reputation of being centers of serious culture are now given over to the trivial pursuits of passive idleness…. Men put themselves to school to the singer instead of the philosopher, to the theatrical producer rather than the teacher of oratory. The libraries are like tombs, permanently shut; men manufacture water-organs and lutes the size of carriages and flutes and heavy properties for theatrical performances.”

To borrow a phrase from Neil Postman, the Romans were “entertaining themselves to death.” A great and prosperous civilization was about to disappear. Who aside from Marcellinus was worried about it? From every indication, the good citizen, the concerned citizen, was increasingly isolated and irrelevant. The Roman Empire lost the ability, the willpower and the inner toughness to confront the shabby little barbarian tribes that collapsed its delicate economic mechanism. According to Ward-Perkins, “The dismembering of the Roman state, and the ending of centuries of security, were the crucial factors in destroying the sophisticated economy of ancient times….”
You do not need atomic bombs to depopulate cities or empires. A foreign enemy, admitted inside an empire, can disrupt trade and stop the flow of revenue. Legions cannot be paid, cities cannot be sustained, civilized life disappears. The resulting economic downturn lasted for centuries. According to Ward-Perkins, “The economic change that I have outlined was an extraordinary one. What we observe at the end of the Roman world is not a ‘recession’ or – to use a term that has already been suggested – an ‘abatement,’ with an essentially similar economy continuing to work at a reduced pace. Instead what we see is a remarkable qualitative change, with the disappearance of entire industries and commercial networks.”

Civilization is fragile. Trade can be interrupted and peaceful industry can be knocked out of operation. It doesn’t take as much interference as you think. In his book, The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization, Ward-Perkins describes the fragility of sophisticated economies: “to understand the full and unexpected scale of the decline – turning sophisticated regions into underdeveloped backwaters – we need to appreciate that economic sophistication has a negative side. If the ancient economy had consisted of a series of simple and essentially autonomous local units, with little specialization of labor within them and very little exchange between them, then parts of it would certainly have survived the troubles of post-Roman times…. However, because the ancient economy was in fact a complicated and interlocked system, its very sophistication rendered it fragile and less adaptable to change.”

Our modern economy is more complicated, more interlocked, and more fragile than the economy of the Roman Empire. Specialization has made our society wealthy. If the latter-day barbarians can accomplish what the Goths and Vandals accomplished in the fifth century, the descent into darkness could be rapid and last many centuries. “Comparison with the contemporary western world is obvious and important,” noted Ward-Perkins. “We would be quite incapable of meeting our needs locally, even in an emergency. The ancient world had not come as far down the road of specialization and helplessness as we have….” J.R. Nyquist Copyright 2008.

Two Letters Re: Comparing the Big Three Battle Rifle Chamberings in the United States

Jim,
[Regarding the tangent on pistol ammo that got started with the battle rifle cartridge discussion,].I just thought I’d point out for your readers that while it is indeed important to select a common caliber (for rifle or handgun) and one that fits your role/terrain/group, if weaponry isn’t your forte, don’t get paralyzed with “I have to pick the best caliber or I’m unprepared.” I know people who “think it to death” and never purchase anything because that “perfect” caliber isn’t in stock or they can’t make up their mind. Remember that it’s the user that makes the difference. You can be far more effective with a .22LR you’re trained and practiced with it than some couch commando who owns the ‘baddest’ assault/battle rifle but has not trained at all. One of the advertisers here, Front Sight, has a saying, “Any gun will do, if you will do!” That is very true!

And just because I can’t resist the allure of the caliber debate that’s going on, please note that while I acknowledge there are differences between calibers (both among handguns and rifles) in terms of effectiveness, velocities, penetration, and such… just maybe there is a reason that the 9mm Luger versus 45 ACP debate has lasted nearly a century! Could it be that there is no clear winner? From Corbon’s web site (a manufacturer with the tightest quality controls out there):

9mm Parabellum (Luger) +P, 115 grain, 1,350fps = 466 ft/lbs of energy
45 ACP +P, 230 grain, 950fps = 461 ft/lbs of energy

Both are +P, both are common grain weights for defensive loads and they are made by the same manufacturer. From that perspective the 9mm is slightly more powerful than the 45 ACP! I only say this to show that pure statistical numbers don’t matter as much as some of us (me included at times) would like to think. Shot placement and mindset win fights, not online statistics. Train until you can’t get it wrong! – PPPP

 

Mr. Rawles,
I am confused as to why there is an argument over relative energy at 50 yards. Having taught hundreds of courses and thousands of people how to shoot a pistol, at this point in my life I can say that unless you run across a very competent person – far better than the average police officer or weekend warrior – they are going to be lucky to hit a target at half that range.

Let me give you an example. The local PD where I am a reserve has their annual shooting qualification course set up so that the vast majority of shots are under seven yards. The longest shot is at 15 yards.

Each year I see officer after officer miss the man sized target, three shots out of three, at the 15 yard line. Only a few officers who also are on SWAT and some of us middle aged reserve guys actually hit at 15 yards.

So the argument over energy at 50 yards is absolutely a non-starter in my book unless and until we are talking about sub-machineguns which most of us don’t own. And then the energy figures would be for 10 inch barrels and not 5 inch pistol-length barrels.

You can argue until you are blue in the face over 9mm vs. .45 ACP and neither side will give an inch. Ditto .223 vs. 7.62×39 or .308. Let’s just say that all of them have their place. Personally, I carry a 9mm on a daily basis only because its light enough to wear comfortably. When I am expecting trouble its either .40 when I am on duty or .45 when I am off duty. And a .223 or 7.62×39 in the car where I can get to it …

Overseas I carry 9 mm and 7.62×39 simply because not being associated with a U.S. military unit, it is what I can get a re-supply of in short order.

Final analysis its not the tool, it’s the person. Or, if you look at [Massad] Ayoob’s priorities, gear is at the bottom of his list. – Hugh D.

Odds ‘n Sods:

A reader mentioned a very useful new blog on Survival cooking, recipes and menu-planning. It looks worthy of bookmarking.

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I heard from the wife of an active duty Marine that starting last week, SurvivalBlog’s URL has been universally blocked by the US DOD‘s Navy and Marine Corps Internet (NMCI). I find it ironic that my blog is currently not blocked by Red China’s notorious “Great Firewall of China“, but it is now blocked to so many US servicemen. This is particularly difficult for Navy sailors aboard ship, who needless to say have few Internet access alternatives. Why is it that the DOD universally blocks access 24 hours a day–even after duty hours? I find that troubling. One option is using a web portal, such as Anonymizer, which I recommend for all SurvivalBlog readers, so that your web surfing “history” never gets logged. That, BTW, is good OPSEC practice for everyone. And, FWIW, I will also look into either setting up a mirror site or an e-mail digest of SurvivalBlog. Keep in mind that we also have an XML RSS feed. (Hint, hint.) Once an alternate web site has been set up, please e-mail anyone that you know that is trapped behind the Navy and Marine Corps firewall, and let them know that they can still read SurvivalBlog. Thanks!

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Yishai spotted this linked over at the Defense Tech blog: The US Navy is Discussing Economic Doomsday.

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Hard Corps Bear sent us an interesting article posted on Fox News about police in the U.K. cracking down on knife possession. This appears to even include kitchen knives. Police states know no bounds!

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The latest news and commentary from The Economatrix: Bush Okays $17.4 Billion Bailout of Automakers — Dismal Economy Sinks Oil Below $37 — A Devastating Impact as the Market Unleverages and a Winter of Discontent — Toyota Vote of No Confidence in US Economy — 27,000 Woolworth’s Staff Gone in January — Deutsche Bank Shocks Markets — Dollar’s Slump Erases Months of Gains — Credit Suisse Execs Get Risky Assets As Bonuses (Poetic justice!) — Swiss Gold Bullion in Huge Demand as Trust in Banks Dives — AIG Writedowns May Rise $30 Billion More — LEAP Report: New Tipping Point in March 2009: When the World Realizes Things are Worse than 1930s — The Dead Mall Problem — Arizona Police Trained for Economic Civil Unrest

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Before a standing army can rule, the people must be disarmed; as they are in almost every kingdom of Europe. The supreme power in America cannot enforce unjust laws by the sword; because the whole body of the people are armed, and constitute a force superior to any bands of regular troops that can be, on any pretense, raised in the United States." – Noah Webster, "An Examination into the Leading Principles of the Federal Constitution," 1787, in Paul Ford, ed., Pamphlets on the Constitution of the United States, p. 56 (New York, 1888).

Notes from JWR:

Today is the last day of Safecastle’s special 25% off sale for Mountain House canned freeze dries foods. Get you order in, ASAP!

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $1,000. The auction is for a large mixed lot that includes:

1.) A large “be ready to barter” box of full-capacity gun magazines, from the JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original FN of Belgium-made FN-FAL alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (a mix of Simmonds & Colt made) alloy 20 round magazines, and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $450. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new in box Big Berky Water Filter, with your choice of either four white ceramic filter elements or four black filter elements. This is a $329 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A desert tan SOG Trident folding knife, courtesy of Safecastle. (a $92.99 retail value.)

6.) A case of 12 recent production full mil-spec MRE rations (identical to the current military contract MREs, but without the civilian sale restriction markings). This is a $90 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, the combined retail value of this combined lot is at least $1,275. This auction ends on January 15th. Please e-mail us your bid for the entire mixed lot.

 

Today we present another entry for Round 20 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:

First Prize: The writer of the best contributed article will be awarded two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 20 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Survival Dentistry, by The Army Dentist

Dentistry may be one of the least exciting topics under preparedness. You will never see a television show on the daily life and death struggles in a dental office and you won’t find too many stories “from the front” on the dental team. But a dental emergency can quickly complicate or even bring to a standstill, daily living and tasks. In a SHTF scenario, this is not something you want to deal with. The confederate army was the first army to recognize this and fielded a dentist for their troops. In Vietnam, dental disease accounted for 11% of Disease and Non-Battle Injury (DNBI). Today, the military recognizes this and has provided more and more dental support closer to the forward line of troops (FLOT ) in an effort to keep troops on duty and out of sick call.

I have been practicing dentistry for 12 years now. I am currently in private practice but I served on active duty in the army for four and one half years and have been in the reserves the balance of my career. I have performed dental procedures in the third world as both a civilian and a soldier in places such as rural Jamaica, Guatemala and Kosovo (and in a few months I will add Iraq to the list but I doubt I will ever leave the wire to treat civilians). Most of these procedures involved nothing more than tooth extractions because it is the fastest way to help the most people. And most of these people recognized that follow up dental care was tenuous at best, and were not willing to gamble on a questionable tooth. On each of the medical civilian aid missions (MEDCAPs) in which I participated, the line to see the dentist was always at least as long as the line to see the physician’s assistants (PAs) and physicians.

I would like to present a summary of the caries process and the best way to prevent dental pathology in the first place, a simple way to recognize and or loosely categorize dental symptoms, and some simple treatment alternatives until definitive care can be reached.

The first place I would start, would be to go to your dentist and have everything taken care of immediately. Think of Tom Hank’s character in the movie “Lost” who ended up extracting an abscessed tooth with an old ice skate. Need I say more? Sometimes in dentistry, we will treat a questionable tooth in an effort to save it but the tooth has a poor prognosis and we instruct the patient to return if problems persist. If you feel that you will be remote to dental care for an extended period of time, then I would attempt to limit these “watch and wait” procedures. Always ask for the dentist’s prognosis. You don’t want to find out that the procedure has failed after you no longer have access to the dentist.

After all existing problems have been addressed, begin and maintain (make it a habit) a preventive dental program. It is not a very difficult thing to do and you can save untold thousands of dollars and a lot of pain by doing it. Believe me, I’ll take your money to fix the problems but its better if you just avoid the problems in the first place.

Caries begins when bacteria in your mouth, digests sugar and creates acid, which dissolves tooth structure. As this process progresses towards the pulp of the tooth, you will experience pain. I know you all have heard this a million times but I’ll say it again because if you do this, you will have very few problems. Brush your teeth nd limit your sugar intake. . It really does work. If you can remove the bacteria, which predominantly resides in plaque, from your mouth, you will limit its ability to create acid. Also, the sugar intake frequency is more important than the amount of sugar. Every time you put sugar in your mouth, the bacteria will create acid for thirty minutes. If you drink one soda in 10 minutes, and then consume no more sugar the rest of the day, then you will only have acid in your mouth for about 40 minutes. If you take the same soda, and sip on it all day long, then you will have acid in your mouth all day long. Certainly limit the amount of sugar you ingest, but more importantly, limit the frequency with which you ingest it. Also, use a fluoride rinse every night. You should brush your teeth, then rinse your mouth, drink water if you want, and then rinse with the fluoride. Then don’t put anything else in your mouth and go to bed. The fluoride will sit on your teeth and make the enamel less soluble. It works.|

Toothpaste is not necessary in this regimen either. It is good but not necessary. Toothpaste is nothing more than a mild abrasive, flavoring and fluoride. If you want to make your own, you can use fluoride rinse and baking soda although baking soda is much more abrasive than commercially made tooth paste and can irritate your tissues. It is fine to use every now and then and just use fluoride rinse or water if that’s all you have the rest of the time.

If you do develop a carious lesion (a cavity), you can expect the following, which can take months or years to fully develop. These symptoms are never written in stone and vary greatly between individuals and even between teeth in the same person. But this should provide a general guideline so you can estimate what you are dealing with, what symptom may be expected with time and what treatment you may need.

When the tooth structure has been sufficiently weakened, it will break and leave a hole (the cavity). At first you may have no pain and only experience a gingival irritation as food gets packed in it. You may have trouble getting all of the food out. Soon it will start to ache when you chew and possibly will be very cold sensitive. This decay is approaching the pulp of the tooth and is starting to irritate the nerves within the tooth. This is called reversible pulpitis, literally a reversible irritated pulp. This can be treated with a filling. When the tooth begins to hurt spontaneously, wakes you up at night and is sensitive to hot, then you most likely have an irreversible pulpitis. At this point, the tooth requires a root canal or an extraction. The toxins from the decay have reached the nerve and essentially have mortally wounded it. This may last for several weeks and if you gut it out, the pain will eventually go away. When the pain goes away, the nerve has died. Do not leave this tooth untreated! As the nerve decomposes, the body is unable to get inside the tooth to take care of it and you will eventually end up with an abscess. The pain will return with a vengeance. This tooth will no longer be sensitive to hot and cold but it will be extremely painfully to the touch. You may begin to run a fever and experience swelling. Some people say it feels like the tooth has “raised up”. It has. The infection is pushing it up. The infection will seek the path of least resistance in an effort to relieve pressure. If you are lucky it will establish drainage toward your cheeks or lips through the gums. Once the drainage is established, the pain may resolve somewhat. Again, don’t leave this untreated. If the infection, however, travels toward the tongue, neck or sinuses, to name a few places, it can become very dangerous, very quickly. Possible sequelae include septicemia, airway obstruction and pericardial infections. These complications are not common but are very dangerous and need to be treated by a medical professional. Some of the symptoms of these very serious infections will include increased temperature, swelling under your jaw, under your tongue and around your chin, swelling extending toward your neck, swelling in your throat that may begin to push your uvula aside, difficulty swallowing and/or breathing. Do not ignore these! Seek medical care immediately!

As far as field dentistry for non-dental personnel, you are pretty much limited to prevention, and possibly temporarily treating a reversible pulpitis. I have in the past taught 18Ds [The Army MOS for Special Operations Medical Sergeants] to extract teeth and even perform root canals but they are exceptional men in exceptional circumstances and we had a lot of time to work on it. In this venue I will suggest the names and techniques and perhaps you can fill in the gaps with a willing local dentist.

Two long-standing temporary filling materials are Cavit and IRM. Both of these are a powder and liquid that when mixed will become very hard. The benefit of IRM is that it contains eugenol (clove oil), which is a sedative and can sooth a sensitive tooth. These will keep food and “cold” out of a cavity until you can reach definitive care. If you are somehow able to secure it, Fuji IX is a wonderful restorative material that will also release fluoride and can slow down/stop the decay process. I don’t know how you can get it without a dental license but if you are resourceful…please, I am not advocating non-dentists treating tooth pathology in any way, shape or form (i.e. don’t sue me if you try something and it doesn’t work). I am simply offering some observations from my own experiences that may be helpful when dental care is not available. In the end, you will need to find a dentist but hopefully these tips can help you prevent, treat or recognize the severity of dental pathology that you may encounter in remote areas. This is about four years of school crammed into a few pages so there are huge gaps of course, and there are as many ways to treat disease as there are dentists. Others may have different opinions and better treatment alternatives but I think this can at least organize a discussion or be a good stimulus for questions.

Letter Re: Seeking Advice on Mosin Nagant Rifles

Jim,
At the risk of pestering you, I was curious about your opinion of Mosin Nagant rifles. I have seen them advertised on J&G Sales for anywhere from $69 to $199, with folding bayonets. The advertised condition is “very good”. What do you think? It appears that there is pretty widespread availability of 7.62x54r ammo for this weapon as well. Thanks, – MAJ Kevin X., USAR

Kevin:
Here is brief response. (I get 60+ e-mails per day, so forgive my brevity): I do like the Finn M39 Mosin rifles –some of which are available on pre-1899 antique actions–but the little carbines (all legally modern, requiring paperwork) kick like a mule. The 7.62x54r cartridge is a bit more powerful than .30-06.
See: this article on early Mosin Nagant rifles and my Pre-1899 Antique Guns FAQ.

Pat Burns is a good Mosin dealer that usually has some Finnish M39s built on antique (1898 or earlier) receivers available.
(Scroll down to the second half of the yellow table of M39 listings for the pre-1899 antiques.)

Please note that most of the 7.62x54r ammo on the market is corrosively primed. Search for the Russian Silver Bear 7.62x54r ammo, which is non-corrosive. J&G Sales in Prescott, Arizona often stocks it.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Mark R. and Eric both highlighted this: Depression Possible: Canadian Prime Minister. And Eric also sent this big raft of economic news: Calpers to Report Losses of 103% on its Residential Investments — Forecast: A Long, Cold Winter — HUD Chief Calls Aid on Mortgages a Failure — 55% of SoCal house sales were foreclosures — Foreclosures push So Cal house prices down 35 percent — Fed now lending money for 0% interest — Banks Show No Signs of Easing Credit in Step With Feds Rates — FDIC rules will ban new banks — Goldman Sachs’ Tax Rate Drops to 1% — Bonds Stagnate on Mind-Numbing Housing Data — The Great Unraveling

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Just a few days left! More than 400 SurvivalBlog readers have bought Foodsaver vacuum packers at the special December sale price. We get a little “piece of the action” for each one that is sold. So this a is a great way to save money and to support SurvivalBlog! Don’t miss out on this sale! You can buy a FoodSaver v2830 for $59.99 (originally $169.99) with free Standard Shipping for orders over $100, directly from FoodSaver.com.Use code L8FAV28 at checkout. This offer is valid during the month of December, or while supplies last. By buying foods in bulk and re-packaging them in more handy (single meal size) vacuum bags, you can save a lot of money on your grocery bill. Buy a FoodSaver. You’ll be glad that you did!

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Scott D. forwarded us this commentary by Richard Russell: Warren Should’ve Listened to Daddy Buffett. Scott’s comments: “Please don’t think I’m forwarding this article as information related to Investing; it’s not. The first part of this is pretty typical stuff – the second part is what I thought was interesting and worth marking. Howard Buffett (Warren Buffet’s father) was a congressman. Maybe he was caught up in the post WWII hysteria and the newly developing cold war and wrote this simply reflecting that mentality and isn’t particularly relevant. So maybe this “prebuttal” contrasting the Father’s opinion to his son Warren’s later opinion that the metals have no utility is just a bad comparison taken out of their respective contexts. I don’t know. But what got my attention though was that Richard Russell thought it was notable and worth writing now. What’s up with that? Maybe it’s nothing. I hope so.”

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There are just four days left in BulletProoofME’s SurvivalBlog-only special. The 30%-off special is $580 for the mil-spec Interceptor Outer Tactical Vest. The similar sale that they ran last year for SurvivalBlog exceedingly large response. This special pricing is only available because of a military contract overrun. Note that they are running low on inventory this time around. All items will be first come, first served. The sale ends at midnight on December 22nd.

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Geoff flagged this ominous news: Chrysler to idle all factories for at least a month. Hmmmm… Lack of financing was blamed. As I warned SurvivalBlog readers back in October: “At present, the global credit market is frozen solid. More than anything, it resembles a Wooly Mammoth that was suddenly frozen stiff with clover grass still in its mouth. Applying CPR won’t help the beast. But Ben Bernanke and Congress are still doing their best to resuscitate it, putting on a good show for the public…”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"All centuries are dangerous, it is the business of the future to be dangerous. It must be admitted that there is a degree of instability which is inconsistent with civilization. But, on the whole, the great ages have been the unstable ages." – Alfred North Whitehead (1861-1947)

Notes from JWR:

Today is the last day of Safecastle’s special 25% off sale for Mountain House canned freeze dries foods. Get you order in, ASAP!

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $1,000. The auction is for a large mixed lot that includes:

1.) A large “be ready to barter” box of full-capacity gun magazines, from the JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original FN of Belgium-made FN-FAL alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (a mix of Simmonds & Colt made) alloy 20 round magazines, and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $450. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new in box Big Berky Water Filter, with your choice of either four white ceramic filter elements or four black filter elements. This is a $329 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A desert tan SOG Trident folding knife, courtesy of Safecastle. (a $92.99 retail value.)

6.) A case of 12 recent production full mil-spec MRE rations (identical to the current military contract MREs, but without the civilian sale restriction markings). This is a $90 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, the combined retail value of this combined lot is at least $1,275. This auction ends on January 15th. Please e-mail us your bid for the entire mixed lot.

 

Today we present another entry for Round 20 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:

First Prize: The writer of the best contributed article will be awarded two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 20 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Note from JWR:

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $860. The auction is for a large mixed lot that includes:

1.) A large “be ready to barter” box of full-capacity gun magazines, from the JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original FN of Belgium-made FN-FAL alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (a mix of Simmonds & Colt made) alloy 20 round magazines, and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $450. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new in box Big Berky Water Filter, with your choice of either four white ceramic filter elements or four black filter elements. This is a $329 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A desert tan SOG Trident folding knife, courtesy of Safecastle. (a $92.99 retail value.)

6.) A case of 12 recent production full mil-spec MRE rations (identical to the current military contract MREs, but without the civilian sale restriction markings). This is a $90 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, the combined retail value of this combined lot is at least $1,275. This auction ends on January 15th. Please e-mail us your bid for the entire mixed lot.

Letter Re: A Company Layoff Underscores the Need to Be Well Prepared

Jim,
What a surprise my wife and I received at work yesterday. My wife and I work for the same manufacturing company and after two banner years and a huge Christmas bonus the company is reducing everyone to 20 hours a week. The company we work for is a total “team oriented” place to work and if one person gets a bonus we all get a bonus and the same is true when it comes to layoffs. While our company sets and exceeds the world standard for what we do many of the companies we are dealing with are unable to now qualify for bank funding. What I find odd is the fact that the companies we deal with are the ones that bring food to tables around the world and are consistently profitable. I take pause when the profitable companies aren’t able to do business.

So my true purpose for contacting you is to thank you for blog and the focus it has toward preparation. My wife and I have been reading daily and are Ten Cent Challenge subscribers. Additionally, I have your SurvivalBlog banner on my MySpace page as well as all my outgoing (non-work) e-mail footers. I read your “Patriots” novel and then started reading your blog as well as the Mental Militia forums. Together, those have [motivated] us [to now be] sitting in a much better place than we wouldn’t be otherwise. We now have food supplies for ourselves and our children for six months as well as weapons and ammo cache.

I want to close by saying that my wife or I ever seen this coming and we are thankful to be as prepared as we are and hope that others step up while they can. Sincerely, – “Sharp Shepherd”

Letter Re: Speeding Coyote Hunters Arrested in Illinois

Jim,
I enjoy reading your blog and have improved my preps exponentially since I began following you. I don’t know how many dozens of [telephone] consultations you do annually, but you and I spoke for an hour earlier this year. I live on Long Island, if that rings a bell. I feel that it was money well-spent.

The post on vehicle stops was informative. You mentioned Boston T. Party’s “Boston’s Gun Bible” as a reference source. I have read all his books, fiction and non-fiction alike, and found him to be both entertaining and informative. If I may, I suggest letting your readers know that he has a book devoted solely to interactions with law enforcement. His book is entitled “You and the Police” and can be found on Amazon.com for as little as $10.88 at last glance. This book covers all phases of dealing with law enforcement including traffic stops, roadblocks, airports etc . It also tells you what the police are allowed to do and what your rights are during a “contact”, “detention” and “arrest”. I have purchased copies for myself, family and friends. As the cover of the book states :If you don’t know your rights, you have none!”

Thanks for the blog. It’s my first stop each morning. God Bless, – Ken B. in New York

Letter Re: Comparing the Big Three Battle Rifle Chamberings in the United States

Jim,
It looks like I kicked a hornet’s nest a little with my article, so here is a little clarification on my part.

To reply to Jim H. In Colorado:
“The recent article [by Kyrottimus] that stated that at 50 yards a typical 45 ACP and 9mm [Parabellum] will have the same energy is wrong.
.45 ACP 230 gr ~390 ft/lbs (528 joules) @ 875 fps (JHP)
9x19mm Luger/Parabellum 115 gr ~385 ft/lbs (521 joules) @ 1,225 fps (JHP)”

“Wrong” is a harsh term for so many variable loads for any type of ammo. I basically used the NATO loading data for the 9x19mm in a 5″ barrel pistol in a U.S. Military M9.

Muzzle Velocity 375 meters per second (1,230.3 feet per second)
Muzzle Energy 569.5 Newton meters (430 foot pounds)
See: www.Gun-Shots.net: “9mm bullet weights typically vary between 95 and 147 grains. These bullets leave the average pistol barrel from 930 up to 1,450fps.”

And from another source:
Ball 115 gr (7.45 g) 1,125 ± 90 fps (343 ± 27 mps)
(If using this, +or- 90 could mean 1,035 fps min or 1215 fps max)
M882 Ball 112 gr (7.26 g) 1,263 ± 5 fps (385 ± 1.5 mps)
(If used, drop ~35fps off for a hand-loaded typical 115gr projectile to get ~1,225fps)

Sources included above; you’ll also find references to U.S. military .45ACP loadings as well.
I “dumbed” my stats in the article down to accommodate for ~4.5″ pistols or some commercial defense loads. Please revise any old reloading manuals to which you may be still referring.
“His additional assumption, that bullets will slow equally in an air mass, is also wrong.”
I didn’t claim anywhere that bullets slow equally to each other, but what I did say was a SINGLE bullet will decelerate at a constant rate assuming the atmosphere is at a constant pressure. Allow me to quote myself:
“…so long as the air resistance remains constant, so too will the rate of deceleration of the projectile.” (not “projectiles”)
The statement is of a singular bullet, not comparing one to another.
” I noticed that he listed the fps for a 9mm cartridge at 1,225 fps. This is the energy for a 9mm +p+ range cartridge…”
See above reference to NATO 9x19mm cartridge loads.
…while comparing it to the 45 ACP ball cartridge, not a +p rated bullet.”

I was merely comparing NATO spec to NATO spec (apples to apples, so to speak), maybe I should have listed that from the get-go. NATO ammo in 9×19 may be applied to handloaders using like weighted projectiles with similar sectional density/ballistic coefficient to allow for better “energy dump.”
“How convenient for the crowd that believes 9mm and 45 to be “equivalent”.”

They aren’t. I never said they were. I’ll pick .45ACP nine times out of ten because beyond 50 yards it retains more of its power, further. It also doesn’t over-penetrate as much at closer range so it’s usually more efficient at energy deposition than the 9x19mm at both closer and longer ranges (in my opinion). Please don’t jump to conclusions, I said they were “equal in net force to 50 yards”, not in their energy deposition properties.

” The Winchester Ranger +p 230 gr ball is rated at 985 fps out of my barrel and it’s ballistic coefficient makes it retain more energy at 50 yards than the lightweight 9mm 115 gr cartridge.”

That is a completely true statement, but it’s not pertinent to the point I was trying to make in my article.

” So while not trying to get into the age-old 9mm versus 45 ACP fight, he’s perhaps unintentionally dishonest in his comparison. I would hazard a guess that the data itself was simple cut and pasted, and the writer is unused to vetting his writing.”

If I was somehow inaccurate or dishonest in my assessment of handgun data (used mostly to compare to rifles, not so much to each other), I apologize. It was not my intent.

I used many other sources but most of those were mostly to reassure my own assessments and did not feel pertinent to list every one (those included above with the NATO 9×19 data in the M9 as well as .45 ACP are just a few).

It was not “cut and pasted” and my vetting as a writer is irrelevant. I admit, I over-generalized in my article for the sake of length. Perhaps I should have began with preamble stating so to avoid further reactions. If someone feels the need to add, amend or correct my article, please do so. I don’t know everything about firearms, ballistics or physics. But let’s be honest, anyone can pit two different calibers and different types of loads and get plenty of different results. I am trying to compare “like loads” as close as possible (barrel length, ammunition purpose, cartridge source, etc.).

Again, my intent was not to imply that one may be better than the other, or to start contentious arguments. I was simply trying to, in generalized manner, display physical properties of energy in moving projectiles.

” I also found a big error, where the writer says: “Note that grains in bullet mass differ from from the “grains” of smokeless powder (nitro-cellulose) propellant, which is not used in this article.” He couldn’t be more wrong. I thought there was something up when he equated grain weight to carats and then to grams – I don’t think this is a reloader or someone more conversant with ammunition – no reloader I know could ever make this mistake.”
[JWR Adds: I think that what he meant write was that a physical grain of powder does not necessarily weigh one grain. But you are correct that powder is weighed in the same “grains” scale as bullets.]

JWR is correct. It is my fault, however, for not better wording the statement. It should have read something like this:
“A grain is a unit of lead mass measurement. Note that a “grain” of measurement is originally based upon lead weight and is in no “weigh” equal (pun intended) to a single grain of powder (as powder comes in either extruded/stick or ball/sphere). It is a unit of measuring mass, not individual powder grains. The unit if measurement “grain” is the same no matter what you are weighing; bullets, powder or the amount of pepper in your pepper shaker”

” When he talks of the destabilization of a typical rifle round, he also describes what actually happens erroneously, when referring to the centrifugal force of the cartridge “failing”, and “the laws of inertia, resistance, velocity and mass” being the deciding factors after the “spin fails”.”

I thought I was using basic words. “Spin Failing” is not a technical term; not by a long shot (no pun intended). Critical destabilization is often thrown around as a buzzword. When a bullet hits something harder than air, it’s going to slow down. Longitudinal friction (the direction of the bullet’s travel) is not the only friction a bullet encounters when slowing down. Roll/Spin Friction (via the bullet’s spin) also occurs. If that friction is enough to slow its spin down beyond the point of stabilization, it will usually begin to tumble (if it is back-heavy). Otherwise it can do a myriad of other unpredictable things.

I am positive I’m close enough to be more right than wrong in my basic sentiments.

“Using words like ‘critically destabilizes’ sounds like he was quoting something again….”

Maybe I should have used words like “Break apart” or “loses stabilization” or “slows down very fast” to appease those who may find my motives or style of writing questionable. I am sorry if I am not 100% to-the-point in detail and that I have often over-generalized to truncate an already lengthy article. I stand by the basic concept of energy dynamics in firearms ballistics, though.

And in response to the comments by Beach:
“Point blank” is not just vaguely “… a few yards from the muzzle” as Kyrottimus stated.”
Correct. Again, my mistake of over-generalization. When dealing with new readers, I should have made a terse, but appropriate differentiation between “point-blank” and the usual closest correct distance to set up a chronograph (which yields “muzzle” data). Beach closed with is:”We need to teach the correct usage of terms, not colloquialisms.” I agree completely, and concede this point to you good sir. – Kyrottimus