On Hubbert’s Peak

Some prognosticators contend that a massive economic shift will occur if and when the world’s oil supply begins to run out– as oil is consumed faster than new sources are located so that our “known reserves” begin to decline. (This tipping point is known as “Hubbert’s Peak.”– a.k.a. “Peak Oil“) Some of the most alarmist analysts suggest that this may start as soon as 2010. Here, I should forthrightly note that since I have faith in capitalist ingenuity, I believe that any such shortage will occur much later. They say that as wells shut down and supply decreases, we will have blackouts by 2015. Roughly two billion people are fed using petrochemical-based fertilizers, which will become prohibitively expensive when oil starts to runs out. There is the grim prospect of mass starvation and massive global wars over increasingly scant resources. For details on these predictions, see:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/ and, http://dieoff.com/

These grim and alarmist predictions aside, it is important that you have your retreat well stocked with fuels—both solid and liquid. Aside from increased risk of fire or siphoning theft, you can look at your stored fuel as non-dollar denominated “money in the bank.” As of today’s date, the price of oil is spiking past $67 per barrel. Those of us who bought storage fuel when diesel was $1.29 per gallon did well!

A large stored fuel supply at your retreat will make you immune from short term price spikes, and you will have extra on hand for barter and charity. Storage life is a problem for some liquid fuels, especially gasoline. Here is a quote from my first novel, Patriots:
“The category of fuel that I am most concerned about is liquid fuels. Our diesel storage tank is presently almost full–about 900 gallons. It has been stabilized, and it has been treated with an antibacterial. You’ve all heard this before, but for Rose’s benefit, I’ll repeat it. The basic rule for fuel storage is: the more highly refined the fuel, the shorter its storage life. That means that kerosene will store for 15 years or more, diesel stores for eight to ten years, and gasoline normally has only about a two-year storage life. Beyond that, it builds up gums and peroxides, and suffers decomposition of anti-knock compounds to the point that fuel filters clog up and engines won’t run. Also, the butane that is added to gasoline tends to evaporate. Once the butane burns off, starting an engine can be hard. You usually have to use ether. In general, high temperatures and exposure to oxygen encourage the decomposition process. Stored fuel also tends to attract moisture, and that causes a whole ‘nother set of problems. The storage life of all liquid fuels can be extended by the use of a special additive called Gas Saver that delays the decomposition process, and we have plenty of that on hand. Overall, the best way to store fuel is in a completely full, sealed underground container.”

Because of the relatively short storage life of gasoline, it is best to standardize with diesel and/or propane for your vehicles and generators, if possible. Add fuel stabilizer to your stored gas, and rotate it very frequently. Note that you will have to get anti-gel and anti-bacterial additives for your diesel tank. It may sound hard to believe, but there are bacteria that can grow in diesel fuel!

Letter Re: G.O.O.D. Vehicle Alternatives

Jim, agree with your advice on vehicles. Trucks are the way to go and the more towing/hauling capacity the better. Here is one area of vehicles I have often been interested in and thought would make an excellent choice is the event of evacuating: Commercial vehicles, i.e. former rental trucks (Penske comes to mind because of the great care that is given to these vehicles why they are in the fleet and the low miles that they are released at.) These trucks not only have a large load capacity but have the added advantage of keeping your belongings hidden from prying eyes as well as safe from the elements. These trucks almost always come with a time tested and reliable diesel–the one I most recently rented and drove nearly 6,000 miles–had a 190 H.P. in-line 6 cylinder International engine that gave us NO problems. I’m sure there are disadvantages to using these but some other plus’s are mileage–we averaged close to 10m.p.g. with a gross weight of 22,000+lbs! These trucks are of course 2WD but can be converted to all 4WD. All that it takes is bucks. eBay Motors is an excellent source for these vehicles. You may find that they are cheaper that purchasing a dually 4WD pickup (new ones are nearly $50K, while used still command top dollar as well, saw one 2003 GMC fully loaded Duramax for $37K–not really a bargain). Extra fuel tanks can be fitted as well. (They normally come with a 50 gallon fuel cell.) Boyce Equipment of Utah sells refurbished transfer cases and entire axles that would more than likely fit these vehicles. The suspension on these vehicles is typically very robust and any modifications would just enhance that. As well you can add extra cabs, sleepers etc. to these vehicles for hauling other people. Of course, like you say, its better to be in your retreat location in the first place but think of the amount of gear you could haul…repeatedly…to your pre-postioning location. I would imagine that in a city environment storage of the vehicle would be a concern but spaces can be rented at the numerous storage facilities that all good-sized towns now seem to have. I see dozens of vehicles parked in these secure, guarded areas. Also, once stationary at a retreat the engine could perhaps then be utilized as a makeshift generator. With a properly maintained cooling system a diesel engine can run many, many hours. Anyway, that’s my $.02 worth. – J.M.

Letter Re: The Dr. November Profile

Hi Jim,
I was reading the Profile on Dr. November and you are right–lots of great preparation! One item though, at least from my perspective, seems to be in short supply. That is the amount of diesel fuel he has on hand for his equipment and generator. It would appear to be out of line with the rest of his stocks.

Of course we don’t know how much solar power he is able to produce, and how much he needs to run his genny, but if he lived in gloomy Ohio he would not have enough diesel on hand to go along with his six years worth of food.

I believe he should at least calculate how much diesel fuel he uses when he is off grid. We have a new 10 KW Kubota and use about 3 gallons of diesel a day. His tank would last us a little over two months.

Of course everyone’s circumstances are different but it would appear that the Doctor should look into burying a large underground tank for his needs. Off road diesel fuel [un-taxed home heating oil] with the proper additives will easily store 7-to-10 years in an underground tank. If the fuel begins to show signs of aging and has not been used he can then have his fuel supplier pump out the old and replace it with fresh.

Lastly in the event that he can no longer obtain On Road fuel [taxed diesel] for his equipment and trucks he could use the diesel in the underground tanks for those needs.

In regards to the rest of his preparations, repeat after me: Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s house,Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s house, Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s house. 🙂

Respectfully Yours,

– John Adams

Dispensing Charity–Our Christian Duty

I intentionally emphasize the theme of Christian charity in my writings. I strongly encourage charitable giving both the present day and post-TEOTWAWKI. It is important to keep far more storage food on hand than you expect to consume. If all that you have is the bare minimum to supply your own family or retreat group, you won’t be in any position to dispense charity.

If times get really hard and there is a breakdown of law and order, it might become dangerous to dispense charity to strangers on your own property. I described in ny novel Patriots how to dispense charity “at arm’s length” when living under Schumeresque conditions.

In particular, I recommend that you stock up on extra wheat, rice, beans, and sprouting seeds. If purchased in food grade 5 gallon buckets they are currently very inexpensive. Just an extra two or three hundred pounds of grains and legumes could save dozens of lives. God’s providence is a gift. Share it. Everything that I’ve earned and saved, I consider a gift from God. I intend to share it with those that are less fortunate and those that currently lack the foresight to stock up for potential bad times. I’m sure that there will be a lot of such people wandering about when the balloon goes up. Consider yourself an ambassador for Christ, and act accordingly. Do it for God’s glory rather than your own. BTW, it won’t hurt to hand out a few gospel tracts along with the grub. Do so with the accompanying words: “Its the Christian thing to do.” That might sink in with a few of those folks. ‘Nuff said.

The Lynchpin: The Power Grid

The level of severity for any survival scenario will be tremendously greater if the power grid goes down (“grid down“) for a period of more than a week. Consider the following:

If “grid down” most towns and cities will be without municipal (utility) drinking water.
If “grid down” for more than a month there will likely be huge outflows of refugees from cities.
If “grid down” there will possibly be mass prison escapes.
If “grid down”, virtually all communications will go down. Telephone company central offices (COs) do have battery back-up. These are huge banks of 2-volt deep cycle floating batteries. But those batteries will only last about a week. Backup generators were not installed at most COs, because no situation that would take the power grid down for more than 72 hours was ever anticipated. (Bad planning, Ma Bell!) Thus, if and when the grid goes down then hard-wire phones, cell phones, and the Internet will all go down. When both the power grid and phone systems goes down, law and order will likely disintegrate. There will be no burglar alarms, no security lighting or cameras, and no reliable way to contact police or fire departments, and so forth.
If “grid down” for an extended period anyone with a chronic health problem may die. There will be no power for kidney dialysis machines or breathing machines for respiratory patients, no re-supply of oxygen bottles for people with chronic lung conditions, no re-supply of insulin for diabetics, et cetera.
If “grid down”, most heaters with fans won’t work, even if you can bypass the thermostat. And pellet stoves won’t work at all!
If “grid down”, piped natural gas service will be disrupted in all but a few small areas near wellheads.
If “grid down”, then “seasonal affected disorder” will seem mild compared to the depressing effects of spending 13+ hours a day in the dark during winter months—especially at latitudes north of the 45th Parallel.
If “grid down”, there will be no 911 to call—no back-up—no “cavalry coming over the hill” in the nick of time. You, your family, and your contiguous neighbors will have to independently handle any lawlessness that comes your way.
If “grid down,” sanitation will be problematic in any large town or city. Virtually everyone will be forced to draw water from open sources, and meanwhile their neighbors will be inadvertently fouling those same sources. I heard one survivalist lecturer state that a grid down situation would “almost immediately reduce sanitation in the U.S. to Third World standards.” I think that he underestimated the impact of an extended power grid failure. At least in the Third World they are accustomed to living with poor water and sanitation. Here in the U.S., we don’t even have Third World facilities or folkways. With the grid down and city water disrupted, toilets won’t flush and most urbanites and suburbanites will not dig outhouse or garbage pits! Furthermore, the long-standing Third World village norm of “Draw your drinking water upstream and wash your clothes downstream” will be ignored. A “grid down” condition could be a public health nightmare within a week in metropolitan regions.

Islands of Light in the Dark

There will possibly be “islands” of power remaining if the grid goes down for an extended period. Logically, these islands will mostly be near hydroelectric dams or wind farms in rural areas. These localized islands could have their power restored in a few weeks, while it might takes months of even years for power restoration in other areas, depending on the severity of a full scale TEOTWAWKI-type infrastructure collapse. Finding where these islands are will take considerable research. And even if you find a potential “island”, don’t count on it. Circumstances may dictate that power is not available, or that it is all shunted elsewhere by government decree.

Water–The Critical Resource

You can improvise on almost anything at a retreat except water. Without it, you and your family will become refugees, muy pronto.

If you plan to buy an “in town” retreat, have a long conversation with the City Engineer before making the final selection of a town. Don’t just ask: “Is the water gravity fed?” Nine times out of ten, the engineer will answer yes, but will neglect to mention that it is gravity fed only after it is electrically pumped up hill! You are looking for a town with true end-to-end gravity fed municipal water. Such towns are often found in mountainous regions, or at the base of a mountain range.

If buying an isolated retreat, set your sights on a place with copious spring water or an artesian well. A far less desirable second choice would be a property with well water and/or a true year-round stream. I would rather buy a land with a spring, thin topsoil, and infested with weeds than I would buy place with well water and the best topsoil on earth. Why? Because I can improve topsoil and I can eradicate weeds, but I can’t strike a rock like Moses!
If you are going to have to depend on well water, before you buy the property make sure that the well:

Produces at least 12 gallons per minute (GPM),
Has a stable static level–preferably 40 feet below ground level or less,
Has good water quality (have it tested for both toxins and bacteria!)
Has good southern solar exposure at the well head. (You’ll need this exposure to provide for PV panels.)

Deep wells are problematic. If you plan to use a deep well with photovoltaic power you are going to need a more complex PV system. Due to the massive voltage line loss inherent with DC cabling, you will either have to add lots of panels or you will have to run an AC pump on an inverter from a DC power source if the well is more than 60 feet deep. Including an inverter in the system adds complexity and is inherently inefficient. Also, keep in mind that if you want a back-up hand pump, you will be limited to a well depth of 40 feet or less.
Two other options for deep wells are a traditional windmill (with sucker rod pump cylinder at the bottom of the shaft, pumping up to a large cistern), or a “jack” type pump. A “jack” pump looks like a miniature oil field “cricket.” Jack pumps use a reciprocating “traveling” arm to actuate a sucker rod connected to a pump cylinder at the bottom of the shaft. (Again, pumping up to a large cistern.) Due to their complex design, jack pumps tend to develop mechanical problems in the long run. Parenthetically, I should add that I had a jack pump for five years, and it was nothing but trouble: fly wheels that flew off, gearboxes that disintegrated, et cetera. I’ll never make that mistake again!

Zimbabwe: The Slow Slide Scenario

Comrade Mugabe, the Marxist dictator in Zimbabwe (the former Rhodesia) has instituted a virtual news blackout in that once great nation. Mugabe’s “War Veterans” (read: ex-terrorists) are busy again. After spending two years forcibly occupying some of the best farmland in the country (and thereby rendering it fallow) they are now bulldozing the homes, shops and subsistence garden plots of average city dwellers. As usual, the minority tribe is getting the worst of it. But that is hardly a news flash.

Rhodesia was once the bread basket of Africa–its food exports fed much of the continent.But now, after 25 years of Mugabe’s rule, the agricultural infrastructure has been destroyed and its own citizens face starvation. For some background on Zimbabwe’s plight, read Cathy Buckle’s Letters.

I would greatly appreciate reading some first hand accounts from any SurvivalBlog readers who live in Zimbabwe or that have been there recently. For your safety, I will of course conceal your identity.

I pray for all of the Zimbabwe’s citizens. May God grant them the means and the visceral fortitude to loose the bonds of tyranny.

Letter from Dr. November Re: Venezuela

Jim:
In reading the profile I see that I left one concern out. The situation in Venezuela is pretty bad — and the U.S. gets a lot of crude from Venezuela and relatively little from the Middle East. Any disruption in the supply by that Kim Jong Il wanna-be down there [Presidente Hugo Chavez] is going to ripple through the world’s economy. I have a friend in Argentina, the economy is going down the tubes there as well. South and Central America are going to explode, much like they did in the ’60’s, I’m afraid. With corrupt morons (most of the Middle East) or Communists (Venezuela, and China is coming along) controlling or influencing the oil supply we’re potentially in deep trouble there. Add that to the “NIMSS” (Not in My Solar System) environmentalists that won’t let us build refineries (the bottleneck right now, not production) or use nuclear power and the nation will die with a whimper.

Letter from The Bee Man

Letter from The Bee Man (SAs: DIY Veterinary, Relocation, Survival Tools, and Survival Firearms)

Hello Jim & Family,
I’m glad to see your Blog Site has taken off with such success! I’ve passed on your site address to several other people in hopes to get some advertising to come your way. I also hope you and your own are doing fine. It’s hot and very dry here now. Got those brush fires to contend with. The yellow star thistle is waist high on the hills. I believe your timing of your Blog Site is about right. We’ve had numerous inquiries about land sales here. To listen to these people, one can see the the concern they have about the coming times ahead. I’ve noticed that many are ill equipped in knowledge and skills to take on the job at hand. Example: Right now if you have any livestock that needs a vet, you have to take the animal to Lewiston [Idaho–50 miles away]. The local veterinarians have quit doing large livestock. There is more profit in treating dogs and cats. So one needs to be up on their vet skills and knowledge. Old time ranchers still have these skills, but no-one is willing to learn from them. Our most valuable resource is our knowledge pool. This fact may help one “fit in” a rural community. The more multi-functional one is in his skills, the more likely one is able to fit in.

As for waiting to “bug out” at the last minute, forget it. Some people in the outlying areas are well aware of this fact and are so ready for the influx of such personnel. There are areas right now where such people have already taken up homes and the locals are waiting for a social calamity to even scores with “those outsiders”. I don’t agree with this line of thinking, but it does exist. As for the “Government Owned” national parks and forests, these are bad choices also. Most of these areas now have “Dual Use” facilities meaning they can communicate, house, and maintain some type of troop or covert operations personnel for an indefinite period of time. I have personally seen this happen in the Clearwater National Forest.

I’m not even going to attempt to go into the “best” firearms. More garbage has been written about this subject than Carter has pills. The best gun is the one that is loaded and in one’s hand at the time of battle or whatever task is at hand. The most deadly weapon on the planet is the one that sits atop one’s shoulders. How one applies his knowledge towards tool selection is important. Never go the “cheap” route with tools or gear. This applies to everyday tools like hammers and shovels. The purchase of task specific tools should be avoided if one is on a budget. (Example: A .50 BMG single-shot rifle makes a poor tool when the deer are in the brush or the coyotes are after the chickens.) Buy those basic multipurpose items first.

I do agree with your wife about “doom and gloom” conversations. It does wear on ones’ soul. It happens & those moments when one can enjoy a laugh and a moments peace seem that more precious (to me anyhow). I just recall that the price of Liberty and Freedom is Eternal Vigilance. Not cheap. We do have to pay for it somehow, so that our next generation may not have to because we failed to do anything. Thank You. – The Bee Man, Near Kamiah, Idaho