Note from JWR:

Today we present another article for Round 16 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win two valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 16 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Retreat Security Planning and Analysis, by Tobin

Planning
The key to successful defense is defense in depth. In each layer of security it’s imperative to have a full 360 degree protection afforded by whatever measures, methods or technology you employ. Where it’s simply not possible to secure your entire perimeter due to terrain or financial limitations, it’s important to know what’s not completely protected, why it’s not protected, and what it’s not protected against.
To plan your retreat security, start at the conceptual level. Define what is to be protected. It might be your primary residence, or it might simply be a cache containing bug-out supplies. Decide now what the parameters of a successful defense look like (My food is untouched, 50% of my food is untouched, 25% of my food is untouched, there are no bullet holes in my roof, etc…). Identify, in writing, the consequences of failing to achieve the specified parameters. Doing these things serves two purposes. First, it will help you do develop the proper scope for your plan. Second, it will help you make some difficult decisions regarding rules of engagement and alternatives planning.

Threat Assessment
Next, you have to consider what the threat looks like. The threats are specific to your situation and you have to decide what level of threat you’re willing or obtain the capacity to defend against. City dwellers might be faced with threats like small bands of unskilled scavengers, or large groups of semi-skilled gang members with reasonably good equipment, where the rural resident may be more likely to encounter small groups of highly skilled woodsmen. Your specific threat is entirely dependent on where you are, and who is there with you.
What the threat looks like will dictate how you prepare for it, and it’s definitely not a “one size fits all” exercise. Decide now what your rules of engagement are, and the level of threat that initiates a flight response versus a fight response. A threat that is larger, more skilled, or better equipped than what you prepared for will simply overwhelm your physical security system. For example, a threat capable of long-distance attack may never engage your security at all while still being able to attack people or things at the resource. Concentrating on high-speed avenues of approach will be appropriate for opportunistic or vehicle mounted threats, but completely ineffective against the savvy scavenger with a modicum of hunting skill.
Failure to identify the threat correctly might result in too much security, which could have been invested in food water or power, or too little security, which will result in someone else gaining the benefit of your preparations.

Security System Design
All security systems have to incorporate three key fundamentals – detection, delay, and response. You must be able to detect an intruder to be able to respond to him, and you must be able to respond before he reaches the critical resource.

Detection
Intrusion detection ability comes in many forms, and they have been discussed exhaustively here and elsewhere. Our primary concern is that the detection capability is effective, layered, and sustainable.
It’s imperative that your sensor system have a high probability of detection with a low false alarm rate (FAR)–where we don’t know why the alarm went off) and nuisance alarm rate (NAR)–where we know why the alarm went off, but it wasn’t something we wanted to detect). In other words, it’s good if the dog barks, but not if it barks at everything… or nothing at all. It’s also important to note that people are notoriously poor sensors. Studies conducted by Sandia National Laboratory indicate that a human has a 2% probability of detection under normal conditions, and that they are only effective for the first 20 minutes of a watch. In other words, invest in technology if funding and opportunity allow you to.
Using cumulative probability equations it’s fairly easy to determine that several less than perfect sensors arrayed in series can be more effective that one reasonably good sensor operating alone. One layer of sensors operating at 90% probability of detection (PD) will cost a fortune and provide a 90% cumulative probability of detection (PDC). Two layered sensors operating at 70% PD will offer a PDC of 91% at a lower total price:

PDC = 1-(1-PD1)(1-PD2)
= 1-(1-0.7)(1-.07)
= 1- (.09)
= 91%

If possible, place sensors at the perimeter of your property and again at a defined line within your property. As shown in the example above, two layers of average quality detection devices are more likely to detect a bad guy than one layer of good sensors.

Sustainability of detection devices will be a key issue. If your detection solution is electronic, you have to have means of providing electricity. Fortunately, many technical solutions are designed to work off of 12 volt DC electric or AA batteries and have low power requirements. It’s important that you pay attention to the technical specifications when purchasing equipment. It’s prudent to acquire replacement units or parts in the event that equipment malfunctions or is damaged. Electronic sensors and associated support equipment may not be within your budget. If this is the case, you may elect to go with more cost-effective biological sensors (dogs, geese and others). They will have a reduced capacity to warn you when intruders are coming because they can’t observe your entire perimeter and they, like people, are easily distracted. They require some level of preparation with respect to food and health care, though this should be manageable for most budgets. The major drawback to biological sensors is that while cost effective to purchase and maintain, the opportunity to keep spares on the storage rack isn’t there. In the event that your biological sensors are damaged, replacements may be difficult to obtain,

Delay
The objective of an effective delay system is to delay the bad guy from reaching the objective long enough for the good guys to get dressed, grab their arms, and engage him in a firefight. In practical terms, the bad guy’s timeline from engaging the security system (encountering the outermost sensors) to execution of objective is usually measured in seconds. Your job is to make it enough seconds that you can respond before it’s over.

Delay can come from mechanical obstacles, or it can come from distance. The effectiveness of an obstacle is measured in seconds. An 8 foot chain link fence can be scaled by a human in 10 seconds, and so it’s worth 10 seconds in timeline calculations. Distance is also accounted for in seconds, but is dependant on the movement rate of the bad guy. 100 meters is worth 25 seconds of delay if the bad guy is moving at 4 meters per second. Having a large property can be an asset if your security system is set up properly, but is not, in and of itself, an asset. The only barriers or distances that matter are those that are observed by a sensor system.

Specific delay systems have also been discussed exhaustively here and elsewhere. It’s important to note that barriers effective against one threat may be far less effective against another. For example, anti-vehicle ditch works will provide infinite delay for most vehicles but only a few seconds delay for a bad guy on foot. On the other hand, a wide open field may delay a bad guy on foot for minutes, while delaying a vehicle only a few seconds.

Response
The term Response, in the context of physical security, refers to the people; the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP); and the equipment used to neutralize the bad guys. Here’s where you have to ask yourself four questions:
1.) Do I have enough people to secure my critical resource?
2.) Do I have the right training?
3.) Do I have the right equipment?
4.) Do I have alternative plans?

Under optimum conditions, the US military operates under the assumption that it takes 5.2 people to man each security post 24 hours a day, seven days a week. This assumption accounts for eight hour days, leaves of absence, sick time, and all of the variables that mean people won’t be coming to work. It’s likely that you won’t have the manpower to support more than a post or two under these conditions. The fewer people you have to man each post means that, in order to maintain proper security, other tasks start to go undone. If you have only two people per post, for example, that means 12 hour shifts seven days a week with no rest – leaving no significant time for farming, gardening, or other tasks. The alternatives are to accomplish other tasks while abandoning security requirements, or to make arrangements before TSHTF to group with other like-minded people to provide around the clock security.

Proper training for response forces is imperative. At a minimum, each person must be familiar with the rules of engagement and the standard operation procedures required to accomplish the mission. In many cases, this will mean that you need to define what the mission is and how it’s to be done and put it in writing. Additionally, you have to define the threshold for response and the threshold for flight – put that in writing too. Every member of your response force should be proficient in every weapon system employed. Ideally, they’re all using the same weapon type, but in the event that they’re not, they need to be able to use each other’s arms. Every member of the security force should also be familiar with the terrain out to the maximum effective range of their weapons. Advanced training with firearms is desirable, but not always cost effective for groups of any size. If you ask, I’m certain you’ll be provided with contact information for half a dozen quality sources for firearms training.

Proper equipment and familiarity with the equipment breeds confidence in your security forces. Ideally, all of your people will have identical gear. This will ensure that spare parts are available and that weapon magazines are interchangeable in a firefight. A proper kit will include firearms, ammunition, protective gear, restraint devices, and non-lethal weaponry. Suitable arms for your security forces will be of a weight and configuration that can be handled by all of your personnel, chambers a round suitable for your purpose, and has a maximum effective range that can reach the edge of your perimeter (unless you have a really huge place!). The bottom line answer to the question “what’s the best rifle?” is – the one your personnel can use effectively to put rounds on target. Military security forces in garrison typically carry 120 rounds of 5.56mm ammunition when armed with an M16. Depending on your arms, you may vary the load out, but in a firefight you really want as much ammunition as you can carry on an “all the time” basis. Protective gear, whether in the form of body armor or defensive fighting positions (DFPs), should be able to handle impacts from any ammunition common in the retreat’s region. For body armor, [NIJ] level IV protection is desirable, though the type and manufacturer of the armor is really a matter of taste. DFPs should be constructed with overhead cover – more for comfort than protection (unless the neighbors have mortars) – and double thick sandbag walls. Restraint devices are for the bad guys that make it through the initial firefight, or for the bad guys who surrender before a firefight takes place. There are a number of items that fit this category, though I won’t offer specific discussion about any of them except to say that heavy duty wire ties work really well in this capacity. Last, each of your personnel should have access to less-than lethal control methods. Most likely, your rules of engagement don’t go directly from harsh words to lethal firefight – neither should your equipment.

If you’ve given the threat sufficient thought, then you’ll recognize that the security situation will vary widely by the level of threat present in your area. While you are planning, make sure that you address as many of the conceivable scenarios as you can. Once you reach that threshold between viable defense and non-viable defense, put together pre-planned alternatives to standing and fighting. Make sure your group knows when to bug-out and where to go. If possible, pre-position bug-out caches to facilitate these plans.

In conclusion, proper retreat security is a huge, but manageable task as long as you approach it in the correct context. The specifics on how you address individual elements within the fundamental areas of Detection, Delay, and Response are less important than addressing them in a balanced and systematic way. In order to detect the bad guy, you have to have a means of detection, it has to be effective, and it has to be on. In order to slow the bad guy down, you have to have obstacles that are pertinent to his preferred mode of travel, you have to have enough of them so that his total travel time is longer than it takes your personnel to get within rifle range, and they have to be observed. To respond effectively and neutralize the bad guy, your response forces have to numerous enough to counter bad guy forces, they have to know the rules, and they must have and be familiar with their equipment. Lastly, in a “no-win” situation, everyone has to know when and how to get out, and where to go.

Letter Re: Ropes and Knot Tying

Mr. Rawles,
I’m an avid reader of your blog, and have found it most helpful in a variety of ways. However, I have noticed a slight deficiency: there is little mention of ropes and knots.

Rope is an incredibly useful thing, both in everyday life and in a SHTF situation: it can be used in combination with a tarp and two trees to construct a makeshift shelter, can lift or pull objects, can secure objects to prevent them from moving, it can make snares and traps to catch food, and so on. One can even tie their shoes!

However, when tied with clumsy or inadequate knots, rope can be incredibly dangerous. The common square knot can fail if sideways (relative to the length of the rope) tension is applied to one of the working (“free”) ends. Certain knots can weaken rope[‘s breaking strength] by more than 40%, which can be a dangerous condition in and of itself.

For light duty (tent cord, tying things down, etc.), military-style 550 [nylon parachute] cord is incredibly useful. For heavier load-bearing uses, one should use a suitable rope.

As always, the Wikipedia has useful links and information for tying different knots. Bookstores sell books describing hundreds of knots and their uses. As always, having paper books on hand is more useful in a SHTF situation than computer files. Sincerely, – Pete S.

JWR Replies: Thanks for mentioning that. I have provided a couple of links to knot tying web sites in the past –such as this site that shows you exactly how they’re done (they show examples of around 75 specific knots) via clearly photographed animations.

One item that bears special mention is the rappelling carabiner. Commonly just called a “biner”–and called a “snap link” by the US military–these have umpteen uses for attaching/lifting/slinging/securing loads and acting like a pulley (or providing greater rope friction by adding multiple coils of rope, which of course relates to their originally-intended purpose for rappelling. I recommend buying a half-dozen (or more), with at least two of them with thumb screw-type locking gates.OBTW, avoid the flimsy pseudo-carbiners that are sold as key ring holders. (Thankfully, nowadays most of these are stamped “Not for Climbing Use”.) We keep several carabiner in our ATV‘s cargo bag, along with a 150 foot coil of rope, and a pair of Jumar ascenders. When used in conjunction with our ATV’s electric winch, this gear has proved immensely useful for tasks around the ranch, and particularly when packing big game uphill.

Letter Re: EcoBeam Construction for Ballistic Protection

Mr. Rawles,
I recently stumbled upon a magazine article highlighting a new home construction technique for people living in some of the most impoverished lands of Africa. It’s called EcoBeam.
The system uses very little lumber or concrete and gains most of it’s structural support from sandbags. Since the walls are essentially stacks of sand bags it has great mass (read: it will hold up in adverse weather conditions – doesn’t require a foundation) and has anti-ballistic properties. Since the bulk of the structure is sand and sand bags little if any heavy equipment is needed to build it . In fact, no power tools would even be required as evidenced by the test structures being built in Africa right now. See this site: EcoBuildTechnologies.com
Vertical i-beams made of wood and a metal zigzag web in middle are used to “stick build” the frame using what looks like approximately 36-to-48″ centers (or what looks like 2 , 3, or 4 sandbag [width]s.) Sand bags are filled and stacked in the space between the beams. The whole assembly is then covered with a mesh or expanded metal mesh and plastered. North Americans, having far more lumber resources, could probably substitute this wood/metal I-beam for some pre-fabbed plywood I-beams commonly used as floor joists in modern home construction.
This might make for a great construction technique for building retreats in remote or low access regions or as a method of construction for support structures like observation/listening posts, etc. I could envision the integration of indigenous stone, soil, brush, etc. on the plaster coating to aid in camouflaging the structure. The other great benefit to the system is it’s thermal properties. It retains heat and cold quite well.

I hope this serves as some benefit to the community. Thanks for bringing us all together. – Tanker

JWR Replies : For many years I’ve been a fan of Earthship construction, (compressed soil-filled tires) which has many of the same attributes a the new EcoBeam method. Sand and and gravel are better at stopping small arms fire than even reinforced concrete. This is because they shift and refill voids after they are created by bullet strikes. From a practical standpoint nothing stops bullets better!

Keep in mind one important proviso: Beware of any unreinforced construction method, especially in earthquake country. You will recall from news stories about earthquakes in many Asian countries that they have high death tolls. This is often because in many impoverished countries metal reinforcement (“re-bar”) is omitted, to reduce construction costs. In an earthquake, such buildings just collapse. Sandbag construction and Earthships must be reinforced. This is best accomplished by placing re-bar vertically on two-foot (or narrower) centers through the wall stacks, making sure that the top of each piece of re-bar passes through a wood top sill, or that it is at least firmly wired in place.

Odds ‘n Sods:

M. In Texas sent the link to a “must read” piece over at The Contrary Investor (for May, 2008): Slowly I Turned

   o o o

Oil Tops $120 Per Barrel

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The Werewolf in Brazil found this for us, about a new disease outbreak: 24 Chinese children die of EV-71 virus; other countries affected

   o o o

Samuel K. suggested this article: An Unlikely Way to Save a Species: Serve It for Dinner. Samuel’s comment: “Some of these local breeds of livestock and crops mentioned in the article may have appeal to survivalists for growing their own food because the food is acclimated to particular climates.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat." – Theodore Roosevelt

Reader Poll: The SurvivalBlog Party Mix

On a recent looong drive into town to top off our supplies, the Memsahib suggested this: The SurvivalBlog Party Mix. Our favorite “preparedness” music. What are your favorite survival-theme songs? (Just e-mail us your list.) Here are the top three songs on the Rawles family’s play list.

“The Man Comes Around” by Johnny Cash

“A Country Boy Can Survive” by Hank Williams, Jr.

“Bad Moon Rising” by Credence Clearwater Revival

How about you? Please e-mail us your two or three favorites. Thanks.

Letter Re: An Overlooked Aspect of Preparedness–Crutches and Canes

Mr. Rawles,
Hi again and thanks again for the wonderful blog! I wanted to address the request for more information about splinting injuries and stretchers. Before I begin discussing methods of splinting we need to first address the degree of injury. I once “sprained” my wrist playing sports. It swelled, hurt, was sensitive, caused immense pain, and was hot to the touch. Our sports trainer pulled me out of the game, three hours after a “minor injury.” [X-rays showed that] I had two hairline fractures and went home with a cast. The doctor was shocked that I waited till halftime and said I was lucky not to further break my arm while I was playing. In the original poster’s story, he couldn’t even move his knee and it was a sprain versus my case, where I could move my arm and yet it was broken. I could have easily fallen on my arm again and seriously broken it! A real problem with trauma and any kind of illness is that you have an increased chance of falling and re-breaking or breaking additional bones. You have to always consult qualified medical advice on an injury that requires splinting, crutches, or any kind of assistance. In a post-TEOTWAWKI situation that may be your medical person in the group, or “Where There Is No Doctor” but unless you have a serious fracture that is apparent (i.e. bone sticking out of flesh, deformity or immediate inability to move the extremity) you really can’t tell and should make every effort to go to a medical professional to get their help. Splinting [in order] to get there is good and fine, but you really should have it looked at by a medical professional before splinting for a long time.

Splinting:
Generally speaking we splint to immobilize an extremity. This is achieved by keeping the joint about and below the injury from moving. If its a knee, splint the injury so the ankle can’t move and the hip can move in a forward backward motion while moving the entire leg but unable to bend the knee. For wrist or elbow sprains simply bend the elbow 90 degrees and hold it to your chest. Splint in place. A critical assessment to make prior to and after splinting is to see if you can feel a pulse, if they can feel sensation and their degree of mobility. This allows you to loosen, tighten, or change the split as needed if they lose one of those three things during or after splinting. By far, splinting is more about technique than the materials on hand. Before x-rays and plaster were used, doctors used splints to treat fractures. Anything hard, and straight can be used. From tree branches to long wooden spoons, to a piece of stiff plastic. I once watched a friend splint an arm for a wilderness class using a soft paper back book and magazines with a lot of tape. You can also buy commercial splinting supplies. There are wire mesh types and card board cut outs and of course the simple ACE [elastic cloth] bandage. Galls.com is a great place to find splinting supplies! Look under medical supplies then splinting. I do not recommend the air splints, they generally are fragile and can pop relatively easily. Once you buy your items open them up and experiment with them, to try different things out and different ways. I also highly recommend taking a basic first aid course that will help you with splinting and immobilizing. For treatment of sprains and twists use the RICE acronym: Rest, Ice, Compress, and Elevate.

As far as stretchers go and hospital beds there are a few prominent brands out there. Mostly in hospitals and in Emergency Medical Service we use Stryker products or Ferno products. These offer a large variety of positions and features. The Stryker ambulance stretchers I can say from first hand experience are extremely rugged and durable! American Medical Response is the largest ambulance company in the US uses Stryker gurneys across the nation! While these stretchers are durable, and rugged they have some serious faults:
1. They are very heavy, around 100-120 pounds.
2. Due to their design, narrow wheel base and where the patient sits, they are also very top heavy and tip over easily.
3. More EMTs and Paramedics careers are ended due to back injury than any other reason. All it takes is one improper lift, one time and one back injury to do permanent damage! Proper body mechanics must be used at all times!
4. They are very expensive–usually around $3,000 when purchased new. Typically they are just repaired until they can’t function at all, so its difficult to get a quality used one.

Back Boards and Garden Carts:

A better option [for prepared families] in my opinion is to simply buy a back board and put the person on a cart or simply carry them. They run about $100 dollars and the straps (spider straps) are about $50 dollars and are easy to use. As I recall, Mr. Rawles recommends having a garden cart for hauling wood and other work related materials around your retreat. Likely this cart would have big heavy duty wheels and could go just about anywhere on your retreat. Back boards have slots at the top and sides for handling and you can easily secure the board via hooks, ropes, or seat belts to the top and rear of the cart. Boards can be made out of wood, but are largely made out of plastic. It would not be difficult to attach one to the side of the cart at all times just in case you need it. In all of these cases back boards should only be used to move the person and not to prevent any head or neck injury which is their primary design in modern medicine unless you are trained to that level of care. Another benefit to a back board is that by strapping them down you are in effect splinting their arms and legs and don’t need to do that until after they have been moved or time allows. Another great option is to secure all of your first response medical gear to the board! Get someone to help you, and have all your emergency field gear on top of the board and simply carry it to your patient and have another set of hands to help! So for about $150 to $200 and a cart used for other purposes, you have a heavy duty stretcher to get the injured person back to your retreat!

In my experience as an EMT, I have found that some great places to find emergency gear are:
SaveLives.com
EmergencyStuff.com
Galls.com
The foregoing comments are purely suggestions and advice. I accept no responsibility for your actions and consequences thereof.
Thanks again for the blog , James! – Michelle, “The 20-something EMT”

Christianity and Physical Preparedness

I occasionally get e-mails from SurvivalBlog readers, asking about how I can justify active preparedness in light of my Christian faith. Some cite the “Lilies of the Field” passage in Matthew 6:25-34:
“Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or drink; or about your body, what you will wear. Is not life more important than food, and the body more important than clothes? Look at the birds of the air; they do not sow or reap or store away in barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not much more valuable than they? Who of you by worrying can add a single hour to his life?
“And why do you worry about clothes? See how the lilies of the field grow. They do not labor or spin. Yet I tell you that not even Solomon in all his splendor was dressed like one of these. If that is how God clothes the grass of the field, which is here today and tomorrow is thrown into the fire, will he not much more clothe you, O you of little faith? So do not worry, saying, ‘What shall we eat?’ or ‘What shall we drink?’ or ‘What shall we wear?’ For the pagans run after all these things, and your heavenly Father knows that you need them. But seek first his kingdom and his righteousness, and all these things will be given to you as well. Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”

In my view, people are misinterpreting these verses. These are verses about worry, not about work or preparedness. Never does the Bible teach that we should laze about and not provide for our families. Earning our daily bread is the Godly way to live. We are taught not to be lazy or dependent on others. Yes, we are to trust in God’s providence, but nowhere do the scriptures absolve us of the responsibility to work or to save up for lean times. Consider these four verses from the book of Proverbs:

He who works his land will have abundant food, but he who chases fantasies lacks judgment. Proverbs 12:11, NIV

All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty. Proverbs 14:23, NIV

The sluggard’s craving will be the death of him, because his hands refuse to work. Proverbs 21:25, NIV

The plans of the diligent surely lead to plenty, but those of everyone who is hasty surely to poverty. Proverbs 21:5, NKJV

 

Food Storage

The Bible encourages storing food. Look at Gen. 41:47-49: “And in the seven plenteous years the earth brought forth by handfuls. And he gathered up all the food of the seven years, which were in the land of Egypt, and laid up the food in the cities: the food of the field, which was round about every city, laid he up in the same. And Joseph gathered corn as the sand of the sea, very much, until he left numbering; for it was without number.” And then see Gen. 41:53-57: “And the seven years of plenteousness, that was in the land of Egypt, were ended. And the sevens years of dearth [drought] was in all lands; but in all the land of Egypt there was bread. And when all the land of Egypt was famished, the people cried to Pharaoh for bread: and Pharaoh said unto all the Egyptians, Go unto Joseph; what he saith to you, do.
And the famine was over all the face of the earth: and Joseph opened all the storehouses, and sold unto the Egyptians; and the famine waxed sore in the land of Egypt. And all countries came into Egypt to Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.

The preceding is a good example that illustrates the need for food storage. As I write this in 2008, a growing portion of the world is already experiencing famine. You should recognize that famine could just a well come to stalk America, Europe, the British Isles, and Australia. (The areas with the largest SurvivalBlog readership.) It is prudent and Biblically supported to stock up during good times in anticipation of lean times.

Prov. 6:6-15: “Go to the ant, thou sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise: Which having no guide, overseer, or ruler, Provideth her meat in the summer, and gathereth her food in the harvest. How long wilt thou sleep, O sluggard? When wilt thou arise out of thy sleep? Yet a little sleep, a little slumber, a little folding of the hands to sleep:
So shall thy poverty come as one that travelleth, and thy want as an armed man. A naughty person, a wicked man, walketh with a forward mouth. He winketh with his eyes, he speaketh with his feet, he teacheth with his fingers; Forwardness is in his heart, he deviseth mischief continually; he soweth discord. Therefore shall his calamity come suddenly; suddenly shall he be broken without remedy.”

The lessons from scripture are clear: Don’t be lazy and lax. Store up in good times for future lean times. Ponder this Old Testament passage: Psalm 34:9-10: “O fear the Lord, ye his saints: for there is no want to them that fear him. The young lions do lack, and suffer hunger: but they that seek the Lord shall not want any good thing.” And then look at this New Testament passage:, from 1 Timothy 5:8: “But if anyone does not provide for his own, and especially for those of his household, he has denied the faith and is worse than an unbeliever.”

One of the many names of God is Jehovah Jireh, which means God Who Provides. As I Christian, I believe that God will provide for his covenant people. I believe that one of the many gifts that the God has provided is a conviction, by the Holy Spirit, to be well prepared. I realize that we are only on Earth for about 80 trips around the sun, and that is just the twinkling of an eye versus eternity. Where we end up after this brief life is far, far more important in the grand scheme of things. We will spend eternity either in heaven or in hell. But how we spend our +/-80 year life on Earth is up to us. (And the most important thing that we do in the is life is make ourselves right with God, though his Grace, to accepting eternal life in heaven. But stepping back to this temporal world: The Bible makes it very clear that we are to be good stewards of the blessings that God provides us. I therefore feel strongly convicted to not just share the gospel of Christ, but also to physically prepare for my own family, and store extra to dispense as charity. The bottom line: I can’t continue to share the gospel if I starve to the point of achieving room temperature!

Self Defense
 Other readers question how I can justify owning guns for self-defense. Some Mennonites, for example, eschew all means self defense and decry even the willingness to defend oneself or one’s loved ones. That, in my opinion is taking “turning the other cheek” (Luke 6:29) to an extreme that is not sculpturally founded.

Exodus 22:2 provides Biblical justification for killing someone if he intends to forcibly rob or kill another man: “If a thief is caught breaking in and is struck so that he dies, the defender is not guilty of bloodshed.” (Exodus 22:2 NIV)

And Jesus teaches that it is wise to be armed, in Luke 22:35-36: “Then Jesus asked them, ‘When I sent you without purse, bag or sandals, did you lack anything?’ ‘Nothing,’ they answered. He said to them, ‘But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don’t have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one.”

In an article titled: What Does The Bible Say About Gun Control? Larry Pratt keenly observed the difference between self-defense and vengeance:

Resisting an attack is not to be confused with taking vengeance which is the exclusive domain of God (Rom. 12:19). This has been delegated to the civil magistrate, who, as we read in Romans 13:4, “. . . is God’s minister to you for good. But if you do evil, be afraid; for he does not bear the sword in vain; for he is God’s minister, an avenger to execute wrath on him who practices evil.”

Private vengeance means one would stalk down a criminal after one’s life is no longer in danger as opposed to defending oneself during an attack. It is this very point that has been confused by Christian pacifists who would take the passage in the Sermon on the Mount about turning the other cheek (which prohibits private vengeance) into a command to falter before the wicked.

Let us consider also that the Sixth Commandment tells us: “Thou shall not murder.” In the chapters following, God gave to Moses many of the situations which require a death penalty. God clearly has not told us never to kill. He has told us not to murder, which means we are not to take an innocent life. Consider also that the civil magistrate is to be a terror to those who practice evil. This passage does not in any way imply that the role of law enforcement is to prevent crimes or to protect individuals from criminals. The magistrate is a minister to serve as “an avenger to execute wrath on him who practices evil” (Rom. 13:4).

Jesus taught both to turn the other cheek and to be well-armed to defend oneself. The important factor is having the wisdom to know when to employ either approach depending on the circumstances. I pray, for wisdom, discernment, and discretion, daily. I don’t seek out trouble, and in fact I have moved my family to a remote, lightly populated region in good part to avoid trouble. But if unavoidable trouble comes my way, I want to have the option of resisting force with force. And I only have that option if I am armed and trained.

Some critics of armed preparedness cite Matthew 26:52-54, which descries how Jesus responded when Peter cut off the ear of a s high priest’s servant, using a sword: “Then said Jesus unto him, Put up again thy sword into his place: for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword. Thinkest thou that I cannot now pray to my Father, and he shall presently give me more than twelve legions of angels? But how then shall the scriptures be fulfilled, that thus it must be?”

In context, Jesus is telling Peter that it would be suicidal to fight in that particular situation, since they were quite outnumbered. And of course Jesus knew it was in God’s plan for him to be arrested, tried, crucified, and resurrected. Jesus told Peter to put his sword in its place –which was back in his belt. Jesus was telling Peter in effect that “there is a time to fight, and this, my friend, isn’t it.” He didn’t command him to “throw that sword away”, or “surrender it”, or to “stop carrying it”. After all, according to Luke, Jesus had just recently ordered the disciples to arm themselves. The reason for the arms was obviously to protect their own lives when traveling–not to protect His own life, which He intended to sacrifice, to pay for our sins, once and for all.

The Old testament teaches both to be armed, and to be trained. We read in Psalm 144:1:

Blessed be the Lord my rock
Who trains my hands for war
And my fingers for battle.

Yes, as Christians our battles are mainly spiritual, but we must also be prepared to defend our lives, and the lives of our loved ones, against evildoers.

Charity

Charity–both in time of plenty and in times of disaster–is a Christian responsibility with its roots in the Old Testament tradition of Tzedaka. This responsibility–particularly for the support of widows and orphans–was repeated in the New Testament, such as in Acts 11:27-29: “And in these days came prophets from Jerusalem unto Antioch. And there stood up one of them named Agabus, and signified by the Spirit that there should be great dearth [drought] throughout all the world: which came to pass in the days of Claudius Caesar. Then the disciples, every man according to his ability, determined to send relief unto the brethren which dwelt in Judea.”

The Biblical approach to survivalism is to avoid trouble, but to be ready for it nonetheless. And when trouble does come, have extra stores on hand, so that you can dispense copious charity. Give until it hurts!

From David in Israel: Peace Corps Remote Area Development Guide Available Online

I have finally found one of my favorite books available as a PDF. This Peace Corps Remote Areas Development Guide is just what anyone would need to jump start a agricultural settlement and
everything else the small town would need.

Unfortunately the [photo reproduction] quality [of the PDF file] is low, I have packed my hard copy of this practical pocket guide with me for many years from my college Bugout Bag to here in Israel.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Naish Piazza of Front Sight has regretfully announced that because of increased merchandise costs as well as increased shipping and mailing costs he will soon be raising the price on his very generous “Get a Gun” training and gear package offer. Get your order in right away, to beat the price increase! Also, keep in mind that the offer will likely end soon, since it is being run at or near cost.

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Inyokern sent this article link about survivalists the UK’s Guardian newspaper: Natural born survivors. BTW, it mentions SurvivalBlog and cites the size our our weekly readership.

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Several readers have written to ask me about the impact of the Federal Reserve’s recent incremental cut in interest rates. In my opinion, this latest 0.25% cut (the seventh cut within as many months) will not make much of a difference. At this point, the economy is so out of whack, debt levels (public and private) are so high, and the credit market is so badly broken, that a deep, long recession–if not a depression–seems inevitable. America’s situation is not unlike that of Japan in the early 1990s. There, a stock market bubble grew out of the Tokyo real estate bubble. First real estate collapsed, and then stocks. The Bank of Japan tried reducing interest rates all the way to zero, to no avail. Now, fifteen years later, their economy has still not fully recovered. Be prepared for decades of economic turmoil, folks!

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Blake W. mentioned this unusual concept: Establishing gated communities peopled entirely with Ron Paul supporters.

Note from JWR:

Today, with permission, we feature an insightful guest editorial from silver mining stock specialist Jason Hommel:

Spotlight Falls on Silver’s “Poor Fundamentals” by Jason Hommel

An article by Pratima Desai that was circulated by the Reuters news service, included this:

LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) – Investment money flooding into silver has overwhelmed poor fundamentals and helped it to outperform gold, but the tide could be turning for precious metals and the probability of large losses is rising.

THE REAL TRUTH IS:
Silver has outstanding fundamentals, and silver’s downside is minimal, and, in fact, it probably just bottomed, as I will show.

Silver’s price falls in percentage terms are likely to dwarf those seen in gold, which some fund managers say has stronger supply/demand fundamentals.

Again, the opposite is true, silver’s supply/demand fundamentals are much better than for gold, as all the smart money knows, and as I will show.

“History shows that when you get a substantial correction in precious metals, silver falls more than gold … It’s a more volatile market and smaller in value terms,” said Stephen Briggs, analyst at Societe Generale.

That’s true, silver is more volatile, and in a bull market for silver, which we are in, silver will clearly outperform gold, as it has outperformed gold, as the silver to gold ratio is narrowing, from 80:1 to 50:1, and we have a long way to go to get to the historic 15:1 ratio, or we will likely exceed it, with silver moving even higher.

One big reason behind surging prices has been the tumbling dollar, making commodities priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies. The weak dollar also prompts producers to raise prices to protect profit margins.

Silver producers do not have the luxury of raising prices. No commodity producer does. All commodities in the world are either sold at the spot price, or under long term contracts that have already been agreed upon, which, in this bull market, are usually at lower prices than today.

Last week the dollar fell to record lows against the Euro, to beyond $1.60, an event which has caused many to question whether further losses can be sustained and whether it has bottomed.
While the excess creation of paper money is one of the best factors for higher silver prices, the dollar’s relation to the yen and Euro has almost nothing to do with it’s relation to silver and gold prices. All paper money, the yen, Euro, and the dollar, are all falling against silver and gold, generally, since 2001 and that trend will continue.

“The dollar is not going to keep on depreciating forever,” Briggs said. He expects gold prices to average around $900 an ounce next year from $1,025 this year and silver to average $15.50 compared with $19.20.

Well, actually, the dollar could keep on depreciating forever, as all paper currencies in all of human history have eventually done just that. It’s silver and gold that cannot depreciate forever. Furthermore, these spokesmen from the large banks and brokers are always revising upwards their estimates of silver’s future prices, and it’s always behind where silver ends up going; I’ve seen this pattern for the last eight years now. Since when have the large banks or brokers called silver right? When did they advise you to ever get into this market to make several hundred percent since 2001? They never did. And now they want you to sell? They always want you to sell.

Financial uncertainty, which has underpinned precious metals since last August is to some extent becoming less important to investors seeking the higher returns stocks and bonds offer.
Stocks and bonds offering higher returns? Since when? Only if you go back 30 years, but not the last 8. The Dow/Gold ratio topped out in 2001 at about 56 and has narrowed down to about 14 now that gold has hit about $900.

With a weakened case for holding precious metals, prices have started to slip. Spot gold is now around $893 an ounce compared with a record high of $1,030.80 on March 17 and silver at $17 from a 27-year high of $21.24.

Weakened case for holding precious metals? What weakened case? They made no case. They didn’t even get the facts right. The current dip in silver is probably the bottom, and now is probably the best time to buy!

Goldman Sachs recently said it expects to see gold prices at $835 an ounce in 12 months and silver at around $15.50.
Here’s another investment bank revising their estimates upwards again, but making bearish calls. Hilarious. Pathetic. Bullish!

RECYCLING
From the end of last year to March 17, silver prices surged by more than 40 percent, while gold was up more than 20 percent. Silver’s heftier gains were built on investor flows.
Absolutely. Investment demand for silver surged from 5% of annual mine supply to maybe about 8-10% of annual mine supply, we’ll see soon.

Barclays iShares silver trust, the biggest silver exchange traded fund listed in the United States, now holds more than 5,770 tonnes of silver, a rise of about 10 percent since the end of last year.
Gold holdings by New York-listed StreetTracks Gold Shares, the world’s biggest gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), stand at 591 tonnes, down about 5 percent since end-December.
I agree with those stats, but look at what they mean. With gold trading at about 50 times the price of silver, and the gold ETF holding more than 1/10th of the tonnes of the silver ETF, it means that about 5 times as many investment dollars went into the gold ETF.

“Silver is probably going to fall more than gold in percentage terms,” said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of sales at German metals trading group Heraeus.
“From an industrial and jewelry point of view, there has clearly been a decline in demand. There has been a lot of additional material coming to the market in the form of scrap.”
This “German metals trading group Heraeus” is not said to be either long or short. They could very well have short positions, and just inventing things. They appear to be a silver user, at first glance here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heraeus

More than 20,000 tonnes of silver were produced globally last year compared with around 2,500 tonnes of gold.
I agree with those stats. What is not said is that 160% of gold mine supply is purchased by investors each year or about 4,000 tonnes of gold. In stark contrast, about .07% of silver mine supply is purchased by investors each year, about 1,555 tonnes, or about 50 million ounces.

The surplus in the physical silver market is expected by some analysts to rise to around 2,500 tonnes from a surplus of around 900 tonnes in 2007. The physical gold market could see a surplus this year of 600 tonnes from 500 tonnes last year.

There is no such thing as a “surplus” of precious metal. This is an accounting term, used to designate demand by investors.
“Fundamentals come into play when prices are coming down,” said John Reade, analyst at UBS. “Silver doesn’t have gold’s fundamentals.”
Exactly. Silver does not have gold’s fundamentals, silver’s are much better. With industry consuming more silver than is mined each year, any slight increase in investor demand for silver will continue to drive silver’s prices upwards, and make a mockery of all of wall street and all they do and all they have to offer. This is why they must band together, to write lying foolishness against silver as they do. This can only be an indication of them feeling pain in the silver market, not being able to coax out any supply from investors after having bombed the price in the last few weeks. The silver shortage is continuing with many coin shops still very low on silver supplies, as investor selling by the public, which was a large part of recycling supply, has changed since gold hit $1,000/oz., and now must be putting the squeeze on all of wall street, who are probably carrying a collective short position in silver.

ONE SOURCE OF DEMAND
Silver is often a byproduct of other metals such as lead, zinc and copper, where miners are trying to ramp up production with some success.
Funny theory. True, about 70% of silver production is as a by-product of the base metals. I just read that Chile, who produces 40% of the world’s copper, is ramping down copper production due to a power crisis. And several more trusted analysts in our industry have finally turned bullish on copper recently.

That means more silver on the market and together with scrap recycling, supplies are set to jump this year, while overall demand, including that from ETFs is expected to fall.
Why would they project demand from silver ETFs to fall? That would be quite a change. It’s rather hard to predict such changes; it’s usually more likely that things will stay the same, with ever increased demand from the silver ETFs.

“Silver is very dependent on one source of demand — ETFs.
That’s not true. Silver prices will go up even without new investor demand, due to the overwhelming fundamentals that there is so little investment demand at all.
You can’t get excited about silver in the same way as gold. Silver doesn’t really have the same cachet,” Briggs said.

Now that’s true. Silver has absolutely no cachet. As I wrote above: 160% of gold mine supply is purchased by investors each year or about 4,000 tonnes of gold. In stark contrast, about .07% of silver mine supply is purchased by investors each year, about 1555 tonnes, or about 50 million ounces. So, how much money is spent on gold vs. silver each year?

Silver: 50 million oz. x $17/oz. = $850 million.
Gold: 4,000 tonnes x 32,151oz/tonne = 128.6 million oz. x $900/oz. = $115,743 million, or $115 billion.

Thus, 136 times as much money is spent on gold, than silver, by investors each year. Silver has absolutely no cachet, true, so true. And yet, the fundamentals are so much better, precisely due to that lower investor demand. When investors get educated about silver, they buy hand over fist, and create shortages at major coin shops around the world.

“Demand from the photographic sector has been falling fast … It’s no longer an important source of demand.” For gold, the picture is somewhat different. Mine production is expected to hold steady this year, but analysts expect output in South Africa, a major producer, to fall over coming years because the ore that remains is deep and expensive to access.
Wow. What a totally biased statement, telling half truths that are totally irrelevant to silver vs. gold. These guys must either know nothing, or be intentionally trying to hammer silver prices. Silver’s declining photography demand is being offset by rising industrial demand and the tiny increase in the tiny investor demand.

Fabrication demand — jewelry and coins — is expected to continue unabated as rising incomes in emerging market countries such as China and India allow people to choose gold over silver.
More hatchet jobs against silver are expected, while they continue to say that silver prices will be expected to fall, while silver prices actually rise. The reason that the establishment will not tell you to buy silver is because they don’t have any. The investment demand is so tiny, they hardly have any silver at all, and have never been able to enter the market in any size. How can wall street establishments, who receive bail outs by the Fed, to the tune of $20 billion dollars at a time, buy any silver when the silver market is swamped by less than $1 billion of investor demand annually?

Be fruitful, multiply and you will see through the lies. Buy silver. They lie. – Jason Hommel www.silverstockreport.com