Jim’s Quote of the Day:

While bankers do control the issuance of credit, they cannot control themselves. Bankers are the fatal flaw in their deviously opaque system that has substituted credit for money and debt for savings. The bankers have spread their credit-based system across the world by catering to basic human needs and ambition and greed; and while human needs can be satisfied, ambition and greed cannot-and the bankers’ least of all. – Darryl Schoon

Notes from JWR:

It has now been seven years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. I give thanks to our servicemen who have helped stop additional attacks here in the States. Please support our troops, not with just lip service and a yellow ribbon magnet on the back of your car, but tangibly, and with consistent regularity. And if you are an employer, then please consider hiring a returning veteran.

Is Hurricane Ike headed toward Galveston, Texas? Batten down the hatches, folks. I’m sure that by now, the well-read SurvivalBlog readers on the Gulf Coast have a Plan B and a Plan C, and they have thoroughly studied alternate evacuation routes on minor roads.

Two Letters Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought

Hi Jim:
I understand about an EMP attack and it’s possibilities to wreak havoc. But I can’t help but wonder when I hear about a possible future EMP attack if we are trying to convince the terrorists through disinformation to detonate their nuclear weapons at a safe altitude instead of over the capitol during the state of the union speech.
I am thinking that for an EMP attack to be effective they would need at least 4 or 5 high yield nuclear weapons of at least 1 megaton each . These would have to be evenly spread over the US relative to population density. Russia could pull it off, and I am sure they would begin a nuclear attack an EMP. But I think the EMP effects of one 15 kiloton range weapon a terrorist would have would be isolated.
I could be wrong, but I can’t help but wonder. – David

Jim:
That EMP report is good news.It shows that an EMP attack would cause significant but not catastrophic disruptions in our critical national infrastructure, and only scattered failures of cars, computers, and other electronic devices. These facts are even more favorable than I wrote in my e-mail to you in March of 2007. As I suspected, but couldn’t prove at the time, the anti-ESD structures in modern semiconductors are very effective against EMP.

The report shows, for example, that there is no longer any strong reason to avoid modern cars. Of 37 modern cars tested in the report, only three were temporarily stopped when exposed to EMP while running, and all could be restarted. Only one car experienced permanent damage, but that was to some unidentified electronics in the dashboard apparently not affecting drivability.
From my experience in the electronics industry, I believe that the most modern, most expensive cars– the ones intended to last a long time– are the most survivable because they are more likely to incorporate better-designed, better-protected and thus more-expensive electronics.

As another hard data point, modern radios are basically immune to EMP. The report states “none of the radios tested showed any damage with EMP fields up to 50 kV/m.” The same circuits that protect radios from ESD to antennas and controls protect them from EMP.

The report is quite definite: EMP is a serious threat to anything with long wires, but not so much to anything small, portable, or mobile.

An EMP attack from a fission weapon would be harmful, especially to our power and telecommunications systems, but the effect would be local and temporary– not really very different from that of a hurricane or powerful earthquake. You owe it to your readers to set the record straight on this topic – PNG

JWR Replies: Yes, that report is good news for automobiles and mobile, battery-operated electronic devices with short antennas. However, the huge, almost incalculable problem is that railroad networks, power grids, and to a lesser extent telephone systems serve as enormous antennas for EMP that can carry EMP for very long distances. In the event of a high altitude megaton-range hydrogen bomb blast, this linear coupling will carry EMP for hundreds of miles beyond line of sight (BLOS). Within that extended footprint it could potentially fry the microcircuits of any device that is plugged in to a utility power wall socket. There could be hundreds of billions of dollars worth of short term damage and a multiple of that in long term damage (loss of productivity) and along with it the risk of a societal collapse and an enormous die-off due to dislocation, exposure, and disrupted chains of supply.

Linear coupling of EMP is one of the reasons that I discourage people from installing “grid-tied” photovoltaic power systems. Sure, it is great fun watching a power meter run backwards and getting a check in the mail from your utility instead of a bill for eight months of each year. But the EMP risk outweighs the benefits. If you go solar, then make it a stand-alone system! Linear coupling is also the reason that I advocate keeping all of your spare radios and computers disconnected and stored in Faraday-shielded containers whenever they are not being used.

What I took away from the report is confirmation of what I had concluded years ago: That for next 10 to 30 years, the EMP threat posed by terrorists will be localized, since they will most likely have access to low-yield fission bombs and will be most likely to employ them in ground bursts with small “footprints”. In ground bursts or in low-altitude air bursts, the line of sight is limited, minimizing the EMP effect. But in any case the linear coupling through the power grid could magnify the EMP damage.

I concur with the report’s finding that there is a the possibility of a massive population loss in the event of a well-coordinated EMP attack by a major power such as Russia or China. That scenario is a “time on target” attack with multiple simultaneous high altitude air bursts of multi-megaton hydrogen bombs. Such an attack would blanket the entire continental United States with high field strength EMP. The word “devastating” doesn’t begin to convey the long term effects. We’d find ourselves back to both 19th Century technology and 19th Century population levels. And, BTW, much of the most heavily populated portions of Canada and Mexico would receive extensive collateral EMP damage.

Three Letters Re: Welding Oxygen Versus Medical Oxygen

Jim,
I write to you again as I pull another EMS duty shift. So far tonight I have had one EMS call and it was a “difficulty breathing” call. Our local law enforcement officers (LEOs) already had the patient on 15LPM. of 02 via non-rebreather mask (NRBM) before we got on scene. The LEOs tend to over inflate, so I titrated the flow down to 8LPM., which worked for the patient’s breathing pattern. I’m glad our LEOs are proactive, but this means that I don’t get a baseline Room Air (RA) 02 saturation for comparison and it does waste some O2 until I get there.

Hint: We use NRBMs on the rig because from this one type of mask you can make the other types simply by removing the circular rubber flap valves. The NRBM has one inspiration valve at the top of the bag inside the mask; and two other expiration valves outside the mask on each side of the nose. When you exhale, the side expiration valves open allowing exhaled air and CO2 to escape outside the mask. But when you inhale, these same valves close, and the inspiration valve opens, allowing 100% O2 to enter the mask from the inflated bag. Hence the name non-rebreather mask because the patient is not re-breathing his own exhaled air. There is no outside air entrainment (provided the mask has a good seal).

1) If you take the same NRBM mask and remove one or both of the expiration valves from the side of the nose, you now have a partial rebreather mask, since when the patient inhales, 100% O2 from the bag is mixed with room air from the removed side valve port.

2) If you take both side valves off, and replace the bag O2 port with the straight line O2 port (that is included in the NRBM package), you now have a simple mask.

3) Here’s another trick, if you take the straight line O2 port off the mask, and replace it with the bottom medicine cup of a nebulizer, you have a aerosol mask for administering nebulized medications like albuterol sulfate.

As more air entrainment is allowed, the overall O2 percentage decreases from the 100% @ 8LPM. – 10LPM. of the NRBM to approximately 28% @ 2LPM. O2 of the nasal cannula. It doesn’t mean your wasting O2 by using a nasal cannula, (since it uses a lower flow rate) your just choosing the best modality to meet the patients need. Some chronic Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients breathing drive can actually be suppressed with too much O2 over a period of time.

(I’ve got to go, just got paged for an “Alcohol Overdose”).

Now I’m back again. The overdose call went okay. But I’m reminded that masks are also good for combative, spitting, or TB patients (Mask the patient and yourself) But on a sad note I found out that the patient I transported three hours ago with difficulty breathing died of respiratory arrest in the ER. She didn’t seem that bad, but she had a DNR order and the family requested she not be intubated. I volunteer for this.

Regarding O2 itself. Almost all O2 manufacturers use the Air Liquefaction method to make compressed O2 gas. The method is written on the side of the cylinder. This is why you will see large stand tanks of Liquid Oxygen (LOX) at the gas vendors’ sites. The oxygen that boils off the LOX is piped through a manifold system to fill the cylinders usually on a cascade system. So although O2 USP has the same basic source as industrial gases, it’s specified., handled, distributed and tracked differently. O2 USP has FDA mandated lot numbers to facilitate product recalls. These lot numbers are tracked all the way to the patient.

During the day I’m a Home Medical Equipment Technician in the respiratory department of a major hospital. We jokingly call the hospital room console the “magic” wall since compressed air, power, suction, O2, etc. is right there. But the fact that O2 is flowing through a humidifier bottle doesn’t instantly change it to medical O2 as the previous supplier quote asserts. It just adds humidity, and then really only at flow rates over 3LPM. Water bottles are mandated in the hospital setting, but not in the home setting. Oxygen is a natural drying agent. We do however use extra dry grades of O2 USP 99.995% and Nitrogen to calibrate our O2 analyzers.

A note on carbon monoxide poisoning. If the patient presents with the classic cherry red complexion, they are too far gone for any O2 to do much good. The carbon monoxide molecule binds something like 600 times more readily to the hemoglobin in the blood than O2, and has to be forced out by O2 in a hyperbaric oxygen chamber. Under double atmospheric pressure even the plasma in the blood carries oxygen. (Which might be one reason our Pre-Flood forefathers could run so far and not become weary.) – Steve P., EMT in Wisconsin

 

Mr. Rawles:
This is in regard to the oxygen discussion. I don’t know the slightest thing about the sources of oxygen, but as a nurse, I thought I would share a little bit about administration of oxygen. The following is straight from my Medical-Surgical Nursing textbook

” Indications for use: …Oxygen is usually administered to treat hypoxemia (decreased oxygen levels in blood) caused by respiratory disorders such as COPD, pulmonary hypertension, cor pulmonale, pneumonia, atelectasis (lung collapse), lung cancer, and pulmonary emboli; cardiovascular disorders such as myocardial infarction, dysrhythmias, angina pectoris, and cardiogenic shock; central nervous system disorders such as overdose of opioids, head injury, and sleep apnea. …..
-Oxygen toxicity- may result from prolonged exposure to a high level of oxygen. High levels of oxygen…..can lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome….All levels above 50% and used for longer than 24 hours should be considered potentially toxic. Levels of 40% and below may be regarded as relatively nontoxic and may not result in development of significant oxygen toxicity if exposure period is short.”

In other words, high levels of oxygen (100% via rebreather/non-rebreather mask) is ideal for emergency situations, but not more than 24 hours!! After stabilization of initial symptoms, it is best to go to a lower oxygen percent, usually 2-3 LPM (for a delivery of 21 to 30 percent oxygen). Of course, these guidelines are designed for medical professionals who can monitor the PaO2 and SpO2 so unless you have a pulse ox[imeter] at home, you’re going to be going with best guess. Watch for breathing difficulties such as trouble breathing, rapid breathing, cough, restlessness.
So, in summary, high oxygen to deal with the immediate emergency, then switch to low oxygen after stabilization or before 24 hours pass. I am a recent graduate, so anybody with more experience please feel free to jump in with any corrections.

Odds ‘n Sods:

C.S.D. mentioned an interesting product with several survival application: Gloshade. Note that these reflectors will also work with infrared chemical light sticks.

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More economic news and commentary, courtesy of SurvivalBlog’s Economic Editor: Fannie & Freddie: Buying Friends in D.C., Fannie & Freddie Bailout Destined to Fail as US Debt Doubles, Mortgage Giant Overstated Its Capital Base, Fannie and Freddie: Just the Beginning of the Derivatives Deleveraging Bailout, Lehman Bros. Worth a Big FAT Zero?, Fannie Mae Faces Investor Lawsuit, Berkshire, in Blow to Banks, Reins in its Deposit Insurer, Wall Street Trading Gets Zero Value from Lehman, Merrill Owners, WaMu Removes CEO, and Paulson’s Actions Herald the Financial Collapse of the US Economy.

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The Rude Awakening‘s Chris Mayer notes: “Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Bank System (all government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs) have become giants in the mortgage markets. The Big Three have grown at such a rapid rate over recent years that at the end of 2000, they collectively held $2.9 trillion of mortgage debt, which was equivalent to nearly 56 percent of all US household mortgage debt.” That is a mountain of debt, and the American taxpayers are the inevitable surety for it. Most of it is good debt, some of it is so-so debt, and some of it absolute garbage debt held by NINJAs, The mainstream press has tossed around the figure of $200 billion USD to bail out Fannie and Freddie, but the truth is that the final price tag is imponderable. It is impossible to predict, since the credit market and the housing market are both still in collapse, and we don’t yet know where the “bottom” is. As I’ve previously mentioned, these bailouts are just part of the collective Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) that has a good chance of bankrupting America.

Notes from JWR:

Hey! I just noticed that we’ve surpassed 4.5 million unique visits. Thanks for spreading the word about SurvivalBlog!

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $550. The auction for a mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated by Ready Made Resources–a $320 value), a NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a Wilson Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value). The auction ends on Monday September 15, 2008. Please e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Should I Get a Bigger Property and a Bigger Mortgage?

JWR,
I currently live in a crowded subdivision in a moderately nice house that is worth $240,000. We owe approximately $120,000 on it, and have $120,000 in equity. Based on much of what I read here, we were looking for a house with some land, and recently found one for $370,000 (it’s only 2.5 acres, but that’s much more than we have now). If we buy it we will owe $370,000 -120,000 = $250,000). I currently make around $120,000 per year, in a job in the medical field that should not be too hard hit by financial crises.

So what do I do? Buy the country house and assume a larger mortgage (but have some space, and a water well, plenty of room for a garden, and less crowding)? Or do I forego that plan and just stay where I am, even though it’s crowded, because it’s cheaper, and I can get it paid off in 2-to-4 years?

The economy has me worried, so this decision has been a difficult one for me. Your site and its links makes a lot of sense to me, but when I read other things online (i.e. the main headlines) it all seems to say that “Everything will be okay, just give it time, you’re in good hands…” When can we expect the major crisis/crises to hit?
Praying for your wife, thanks for all you do, – Perplexed in the Midwest

JWR Replies: If your job is truly stable, then it might be safe making that move. Just by itself, having well water is a huge plus. (I’ve described numerous hand pump and solar well pump alternatives in the blog.) But with the economy presently looking the way it is, having that level of debt should be reason to give you pause.

One alternative to consider is instead of the “halfway measure” of moving to a house on a bigger lot–but still in a relatively high density area–is the concept of buying a dedicated retreat with a house on much more acreage (10+ acres) that is way out in the country, preferably in one of my recommended retreat regions. You could simply tell your family and friends that it is a “vacation cabin.”

My general advice to my consulting clients is to buy their retreat properties with cash, and leave their primary residences mortgaged. That way, if the economy totally tanks and you lose your job you can move to your retreat and essentially abandon your house to the bankers. (The phenomenon they now call “jingle mail”.) At your retreat you will then only have to worry about paying your property taxes.

In answer to your other question: I don’t give “timing” predictions. All that I can say with certainty is the the current economic instability is the worst that I’ve see in my lifetime. So just be ready.

Letter Re: Substantially Higher Food Prices at Warehouse Stores

Hi Jim,
Yesterday I made my monthly or thereabouts pilgrimage to Costco to buy bulk items for our pantry and other needs. I immediately noticed that prices had gone up on just about everything. The 40 pound bags of Kirkland brand dog food (re-labeled Iams brand) had gone up from $19.90 to $23.64 which is about a 16% increase in price. The 25 pound bags of Indian long grain rice went for $20.00 to $24.00 – a 20% increase and other items here and there had gone up a dollar or two or three.

While Costco continues to be a great value – when compared to other retail outlets – it too is getting hit with rising commodity prices. Mind you I think they do a standard 14% profit on stuff – meaning they negotiate a price then tack on 14% for operating costs and profit, their average markup is about 10% – that should tell you what’s going on.

Anyway, this Fall, if you trawl the Internet at all, is supposed to be a time of great upheaval – different folks have different pet theories about what may occur – mine is economic – this might be a good time to stock up for the winter – it’s harvest time anyway – might be good to remind folks to stock those pantries (while they still can).- Eric

Letter Re: Observations on Empty Store Shelves in Louisiana

Mr. Rawles,
I am an over the road truck driver and happen to be in Louisiana today. I have been to several stores in the southern part of the state and took note of what was in short supply. The shelves in the camping section were empty, they were out of water, generators, gas cans, coolers and frozen dinners. The frozen dinner thing I didn’t get, I figured they’d be short on canned or boxed food. Just stuff I noticed and thought I’d share. God Bless and I’ve been praying for your wife.- Vincent from Portland

JWR Replies: Part of the reason that the camping supplies were low is that September 1st has traditionally marked the end of the camping season. Many stores that have limited shelf space intentionally let these items run out, to make space available for seasonal items such as Halloween candy.

Your observation on frozen dinners was interesting. Human behavior can often be irrational. Part of this is based on ignorance and lack of common sense. In my estimation, the same people that eat frozen dinners on regular basis simply thought “emergency” and bought far more dinners than usual. They did this without thinking through the chain of events that are coincident with a major tropical storm, including power failures. The scary thing is that there are a lot of truly ignorant people out there that lack common sense. In my experience, the same ignorant irrationality displayed in times of emergency is an “equal opportunity” phenomenon–among people of all socioeconomic backgrounds.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader I.T.N. wrote me to ask: “I noticed that [the base metal value of] a nickel is [down to] now 4.9 cents. (due to a sharp decline in nickel as of late) Do you think this is temporary, or should I begin to spend the milk jugs full of nickels I acquired.” I expect that spot price of nickel will rebound in coming months, as the US Dollar resumes its decline. With more rapid inflation looking likely, I expect that a US five cent piece will have a base metal value of 10 cents (twice its face value) within two years. And in the long run, as I’ve predicted previously, nickels will begin to be worth 3X to 4X their face value. Once that happens, speculators will begin to acquire $100 (or larger) face value bags, as a speculative hedge against inflation. Hang on to those nickels! Someday you’ll be very glad that you did.

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Eric sent us a link with some more about making newspaper logs.

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The new Katadyn VARIO water filter has a unique design that allows it to be adjusted, depending on the input water quality. I recommend it. OBTW, SurvivalBlog readers will get free shipping on a VARIO filter if they call Ready Made Resources at: 1(800) 627-3809.

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Readers PNG, Niall, and Michael Z. Williamson all mentioned this new product development, perhaps as a starting point for designing a vehicular Get Out of Dodge kit: The Shelter Box. PNF notes: “Not available for retail sale, but an interesting point of comparison.”

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SurvivalBlog’s Economic Editor Cheryl N. sent us this gem: SF Wachovia Bank Under Siege By People Facing Foreclosure. File this under “A” for Audacity. OBTW, I think that the leftist ACORN group made an appropriate choice for the color of their t-shirts. True to form, Cheryl also sent us several pieces of news and commentary: US Deficit Nears $407 Billion, Government Takes Control of Fannie & Freddie, Bush: I Wouldn’t Call it a Bailout, World Stocks Soar on US Mortgage Bailout, Fannie/Freddie Bailout Offer Banks Stock Reprieve, Mexico Stocks Gain After US Bailout; Peso Slips, Taxpayer’s Might Make Money on Fannie/Freddie Grab, China Frets at US Risk After Fannie/Freddie Bailout, A $75 Trillion Fright Fest: 8 Megahorror Debts Chilling The US, Why the US Moved on Mortgage Giants, Best Financial Quotes of August 2008, Ten Worst Insurance Companies (PDF), GMAC May File For Bankruptcy as Early as Tomorrow, and, Treason at the US Treasury. This last piece includes this: “I will tell you openly, the rule of economic law has ended in the USA. Say what you will, the open seizure of Fannie and Freddie by the US government, without cause or recourse, and the destruction of private equity is the Rubicon. We shall not go back from this point. It is kaput.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“…we have the phenomenon called inflation which is the appearance of rising prices. I emphasis the word ‘appearance’ because in reality prices are not rising at all. What we’re seeing is that the value of the dollar is going down, that’s the real side of the equation. If we had real money based on gold or silver or anything tangible that couldn’t just be created out of thin air, it could be based on microphones, that they couldn’t just create with the stroke of a pen, you would see then that prices would remain stable over a long period of time.” – G. Edward Griffin, author of “The Creature from Jekyll Island“

Notes from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $550. The auction for a mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated by Ready Made Resources–a $320 value), a NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a Wilson Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value). The auction ends on September 15, 2008. Please e-mail us your bid.

Today’s posts include an article cross-posted with permission from the new Everyday Prepper Blog. It is an interesting blog that is worth reading.

Letter Re: The EMP Threat May Be Worse Than We Had Thought

Mr Rawles,
Your readers may benefit from the following current links regarding the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) threat:

Full report of the EMP Commission to the House Armed Services Committee (July 10, 2008)

This link has a concise summary of key points from the above report:

I also recommend an interview with the Chairman of the EMP Commission.

The interview includes the following statements that are very important:

Asked just how many Americans would die if Iran were to launch the EMP attack it appears to be preparing, Graham gave a chilling reply: “You have to go back into the 1800s to look at the size of population’ that could survive in a nation deprived of mechanized agriculture, transportation, power, water, and communication.
“I’d have to say that 70 to 90 percent of the population would not be sustainable after this kind of attack,” he said. [Emphasis added.]

America would be reduced to a core of around 30 million people — about the number that existed in the decades after America’s independence from Great Britain.”

270 million deaths! That puts one EMP strike on a par with a full pre-emptive nuclear strike for the number of deaths inflicted. That’s why I took care of securing food and water before any other preparations. – ALG

Range Report: Advantage Arms .22 Conversion Kit for the Glock, by Everyday Prepper

To start off let me say I’m in no way affiliated Advantage Arms or Glock. I don’t get paid to advertise or test their products and I definitely don’t get paid to write reviews.

I took the Glock out today with the Advantage Arms conversion kit installed. I wasn’t exactly skeptical of the kit after reading about it online but I was expecting to have some sort of break in period. I opened the kit up and out fell an orange piece of paper that instructed me to put some oil on the parts in the picture. I grabbed the oil they shipped with the kit, put the drops on the slide where they wanted me to and rubbed the oil with my finger to spread it around some.

I took a piece of standard 8.5″x11″ sheet of printer paper and hung it up. Next I paced off 10 meters and turned to fire. The magazine seated perfectly just like my original Glock magazines. I chambered the first round took aim and pulled the trigger. Bang! Nice, I thought. There was almost no recoil and the gun hit pretty close to where I was aiming. I went ahead and fired a few more at a slow and controlled speed then I just let the last six or so speed their way to the target as fast as I could reasonably regain my sight picture. At the end of those 10, I went up to the piece of paper and measured the spread of hits and they all fell within a three inch circle, save one. (Though I think that one was me getting a little trigger happy.)

I finished the day by placing 10 to 20 targets out and running training drills to help with quicker target acquisition and movement. I fired in the neighborhood of 120 rounds (give or take five rounds) and never had a jam or malfunction of any kind.

It wasn’t an intense break-in but I was impressed at the quality, feel and accuracy of the kit.

If Advantage Arms wouldn’t have stamped their name on the slide you wouldn’t even know it was a company other than Glock that created the kit. With the market for these kits (I waited eight weeks while they caught up on back orders) I’m surprised Glock hasn’t jumped on this boat and started creating their own.

I’m not a professional instructor but I think the advantages to this kit are obvious. While I’m not shooting my standard caliber with its standard recoil I’m getting much more training time in and it’s much cheaper. I can practice every drill and training exercise I know for five times as long thanks to the cost savings. If you are worried about the recoil and muscle memory issues you can always finish your shooting day with your original caliber by removing the kit (as simple as field stripping the Glock) and putting your original hardware back in place.- Everyday Prepper

JWR Adds: Advantage Arms also makes .22 LR conversion kits for Model 1911 pistols, with an equally good reputation. Both of these conversion kits are available via mail order to US customers with no FFL paperwork, since they do not include a pistol frame.

– Everyday Prepper.