Letter Re: In a Tight Spot with Long Distance Travel Plans

Jim,
Thanks again for all you do. I am in a tight spot and need some good advice. I have to travel to the Washington, DC area this weekend for a two week class at a Federal facility. I have tried (unsuccessfully) to cancel my plans. This will put me thousands of miles from home and family during times of mounting crisis. Due to the areas draconian gun laws, and the classes location I will be unable to travel with a firearm. I have some loose family in the New York City area, but no other regional contacts. I plan on bringing my Surefire light, a small “last ditch” kit, folding knife, and an ASP [collapsing baton] in my checked luggage. I have been re-reading “Patriots” and archived SurvivalBlog posts about air travel contingencies. I have a little emergency cash, silver bullion, and junk silver, plus the usual credit cards. Two of my friends will keep an eye on my house and family in my absence. She is armed and trained (Front Sight First Family) but is somewhat in denial about our current state of affairs. She and I have a bug-out plan in place. Any further advice you could offer to me or other travelers who face the possibility of Schumer Hitting the Fan while absent from family, friends, and equipment would be greatly appreciated. OBTW, look for my 10 Cent Challenge renewal, directly. – Jason in Montana .

JWR Replies: That was bad timing, indeed. But take heart in the fact that this is starting to looking like a slow slide, rather than a sudden onset catastrophe. (A “whimper, not a bang.”) So don’t worry too much. But pack some comfortable low-top boots, a heavy winter coat, a pile cap, and gloves just in case you end up hitchhiking or taking a bus home.

Odds ‘n Sods:

I’ve recently had a lot of inquiries via e-mail, asking about bank runs, and the possibility of a national “bank holiday”. For many months I have warned that both are possible. Even mainstream news outlets like Forbes magazine are discussing it. But keep in mind that with the growing prevalence of online banking, your bank could get cleaned out by depositors without a queue of people forming in front of the bank. People can empty there accounts while sitting at the their home PCs, with fuzzy slippers on their feet. This is an invisible bank run. It is essentially what happened to Washington Mutual (WaMu). In their case, it was mainly big institutional depositors that had more than $100,000 in their accounts. Be sure to check your bank or S&L’s safety rating at least once a week. If it drops below a “C” rating, then transfer your funds to a safer bank, ASAP. And, needless to say, never keep more than the FDIC limit in any one institution.

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Reader “Redclay” mentioned that in April 2008 as ammo prices were spiking, the US CMP began limiting the amount of ammunition that one customer could purchase, but those limits have just been abolished. Current offerings can be found at the CMP web site. In my opinion, the US Lake City Arsenal noncorrosive .30-06 ball ammo is a bargain, in today’s market. Stock up.

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“Bee prepared” sent us this article that describes a synergy of bailouts, Peak Oil, and hyperinflation: Hunger for oil could mean hunger for real? The same day, Katya kindly sent us a slew of global economic news: Germany acts to guarantee savings — Brussels moves to salvage Fortis — Iceland’s financial freeze — Timeline: Global credit crunch — Zimbabwe Currency Crisis Peaks (11 Million Percent Inflation Annually!) — Prudence pays off in Ethiopia — and French save money for a rainy day. Meanwhile, Jack B. sent this from The Jerusalem Post: Stocks plunge during hard day of trading at Tel Aviv Exchange. And for a double dose of gloom and doom, Cheryl sent us these: Key German Bank Rescued — Credit Crisis Threatens To Send Car Dealerships Out Of Business — Now Wall Street May Refuse The Bailout — LIBOR Gone Crazy As Commercial Paper Implodes

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F.T. in Tucson wrote me to ask why I’m so “worked up” about hedge funds? He mentioned that he has no money invested in hedge funds, so it is “not a big deal” to him. Well, it should be. There is now more than $3 trillion USD invested in hedge funds. Most of that is not Federally insured. There is the potential for huge losses and investment market turmoil, in the event that hedge funds begin to suspend redemptions and then fail in large numbers. Never underestimate the power of a herd of investors to panic and start a stampede for the exits. A hedge fund collapse could easily trigger a stock market collapse, a banking collapse, a money market collapse, a commercial real estate collapse, municipal bond collapse, and conceivably even a collapse in the US Dollar as a currency unit. But even just in the short term, consider what is covered in this Financial Week article: Hedge funds wilt in credit drought–Investor redemptions could cull herd of hedgies; 700 to 1,000 funds may disappear by year-end.

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Michael H. mentioned an uncharacteristic piece by a mainstream commentator Bill Engdahl: Financial Tsunami: The End of the World as we Knew it.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"When all is said and done, Civilizations do not fall because of the barbarians at the gates. Nor does a great city fall from the death wish of bored and morally bankrupt stewards presumably sworn to its defense. Civilizations fall only because each citizen of the city comes to accept that nothing can be done to rally and rebuild broken walls; that ground lost may never be recovered; and that greatness lived in our grandparents but not our grandchildren. Yes, our betters tell us these things daily. But that doesn’t mean we have to believe it.- Bill Whittle

Notes from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $770. The auction for a large mixed lot that includes: A Special Mixed Vegetable Case-Six #10 Dehydrated Food Cans (Retail Price $105.95) This special Mixed Vegetable Case contains six #10 (96-ounce) cans–one can of each of the following: Mixed Vegetable Blend, Green Beans, Sweet Garden Peas, Mixed Peppers, Potato Dices, and Sweet Potatoes and a EZ-Towels 10 Pack Combo (10 bags of 50 towels. Retail value: $99.95). These items were donated by Jan at Healthy Harvest Foods. An assortment of world class loose leaf teas, and a box of Bellagio hot chocolate (25 individual packs), with a combined value of approximately $100. These items were courtesy of Charlie at CMEBrew.com. A NukAlert radiation detector (a $160 value), donated by at KI4U.com. And, a Katadyn VARIO water filter, donated by Ready Made Resources. (An $89 retail value.) The auction ends on Monday October 15, 2008. Please e-mail us your bid.

Today’s first article comes from SurvivalBlog’s correspondent in Argentina, who posts under the pen-name FerFAL:

From Our Correspondent in Argentina: What to Expect

SurvivalBlog’s correspondent in Argentina received the following e-mail:

FerFAL:
I greatly value your experience in Argentina. Since you have traveled in the U.S., I would like to know what you think will be the impact of our relative lack of corruption, at least at local levels, to what we may face in our coming economic crisis. Perhaps a separate post on the subject, if you have time?

Here was his reply:

This is where things get more into the “guesstimating” territory.
Nothing is for sure and all we have is certain situations being more probable than others.

Inflation
That is already occurring and will likely get worse. Not only in actual prices going up, but in more “hidden” ways, such as servings and packs getting suspiciously smaller but keeping their old price, which will later rise even more.
Here for example, small pudding chocolate desert cups, called Danet and made by Nestle, are surprisingly small, something that you empty in 4 or 5 teaspoons.
But the advertisement on TV, says something like “The perfect size to keep your figure!”
These marketing guys aren’t exactly rocket scientists.:)
You can imagine our surprise when we traveled to Spain and found the exact same chocolate desert/snack cup, Danet by Nestle, but with a cup nearly 4 times bigger!
Inflation at first just pisses you off. But as it gets out of control it turns into a serious problem: Suddenly you find that you already ran out of money a few days or a week before the end of the month.
That’s when you see that due to inflation, you can’t keep on going like this you need to reduce expenses.
But what happens when you reduce them as much as you can, inflation is still going up and your salary just doesn’t compensate.
That’s what I mean when I said you should already start looking for new ways of making money.

Security
That’s probably our greatest problem and eventually crime will get worse in USA because of all this as well.
Here’s were the differences may come into play: America’s police isn’t nearly as corrupt as the police in Argentina, so that will work for your advantage.
But on the other hand, you guys have a more diverse population, which we don’t, and that may contribute to more social disorder.
Anyway, as mentioned in several posts, be prepared to take care of your own security. Safety habits are very important and it’s not goof enough that you are reading this, your entire family must be along with you in the same boat on this matter.
What’s the use in being Mr. Tactical killing machine when your 16 year old daughter doesn’t listen and will spend nearly an hour talking with her boyfriend at the front door–the door opened door for anyone that wants to force their way in.
Also if you are Mr. Tactical bad a**, chances are they won’t go after you, but after the weakest link of the chain ( your kids and wife)

Stress
As mentioned before, expect a lot of emotional problems from people. Suicides may become more common, at least that’s what happened here as well. It got to point were we had 2 or 3 guys killing themselves under the train each week. Total chaos to get to downtown.
I don’t know man, things just change a lot.
For example, I was telling the guys at Minionreport the other day.
We were talking with my son the other day and we talked about what he wants to be when he grows up. He’s six years old.
Doctor, soldier, fireman, astronaut, those were okay according to him, all those except policeman.
“Why not policeman” we asked puzzled.
“Because they get killed a lot, everyday a policeman dies on the news, a policeman got shot today, a policeman was killed today. No no policeman”
My wife ad I didn’t know what to say. I mean, it is true, we just didn’t expect him to notice. And children do notice even if grownups hope they don’t.All the small things
Impossible to mention them all, but one thing you can expect in a country that has little money to spend due to the crisis, is for services and infrastructure to suffer.
Expect power going down more often due to lack of maintenance. Store several LED lights and install emergency lights. A generator will be needed, also see about installing electric protections against high voltage surges when power comes back up.
Expect water to become of worse quality, get a filter even if you have supposedly potable tap water. One day it may not be that potable any more.
Roads are something that go bad surprisingly fast. Expect them to rot because of little maintenance due to lack of funds, specially after heavy rains.
Within a year or so, you may start seeing holes on the road, some of them real craters, and busting a tire in one of them is no joke.
I already spent a small fortune fixing everything that goes wrong in my car due to the poor conditions of the streets here.
What else? We’ll just have to wait and see. – FerFAL

Sometimes We Actually Get Through to Our Family Members

Jim –
I got this letter from my little sister:

“I used to think that you were so off the wall on your beliefs and how this country was falling apart. I would make little jokes because I had no idea what you had seen or done while you were in the military, but you thought that this world was coming to an end. Well, I am no longer laughing at you and it goes to show to not always think that because someone else’s ideas or a little extreme that they are crazy because they might turn out to be right. With having to research things for class and hearing people talk and seeing what I see on the TV, I realize that this country is in bad shape. I won’t even be able to go to Ireland like I planned to do in two years because our dollar will be worthless. So, one point for Dan, and zero points for me.”

She is pretty young, so this is a very significant leaving the ranks of the sheeple. Sad that “I am right”, but now I can help her to become self-reliant. It is good to get to start an new apprentice! – Dan B.

Odds ‘n Sods:

RL sent us this hard-hitting piece: The “Mark To Model” Lie

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Just as I predicted, things are looking grim for the hedge funds: Market chaos batters hedge-fund star. By borrowing short and lending long, they are at huge risk when credit markets fluctuate widely. And in a time of financial crisis like this, where liquidity has dried up almost completely, the hedgers will likely fail in large numbers. (A hat tip to Cyberiot for sending the article link.)

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Eric sent us this from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review: Demand on pantries grows as food costs rise, jobs lost –

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More links from our Economic Editor, starting with a headline that I’ve been expecting: Bailout May Actually Run $1.8 Trillion — Wells Fargo’s Wachovia Bid Sparks Feud With Citigroup — It’s Wait And See After Bush Signs Bailout Bill — For Bailout To Work, Housing Market Needs To Mend — Fortis’ Dutch Assets Nationalized — Asset Management Teams To Manage Bailout — Manipulation of Gold And Commodity Prices To Prevent Inflation And Higher Interest Rates — Anatomy Of Financial And Economic Disaster, Part 1 — LIBOR Mystifies Americans as Mayor Reads `Doomsday’ — Special Report: The Credit Crisis: How We Got Here (A compilation of news stories starting in 2007 regarding the financial crisis) — CitiGroup Shares Fall 18% As Deal With Wachovia Unravels — Jobs Data Show Broad Decline — Safe Harbor In Preferred Stocks? — The Trouble With Harry (“The steep drop in the share prices of insurance companies Thursday destroyed wealth for uncounted middle-class investors holding onto stock in companies still considered healthy.”)

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I was recently interviewed by Kari Huus, a journalist with MSNBC. She is also interested in interviewing one or two SurvivalBlog readers in the Pacific Northwest, and taking some photographs –mostly of a family’s survival logistics shelves. She notes: “I will respect confidentiality. I worked for many years in China, where lots of reporting involved extreme discretion, and I never broke the rules or
got anyone in trouble there so I have a good track record with this.” She added: “Who knows? Maybe it would help other people get prepared for emergencies–economic or otherwise.” Contact: Kari Huus
Phone: (daytime) 425-706-1844, or e-mail: Kari.Huus@msnbc.com

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not entirely absurd, indeed, in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible." – Bertrand Russell

Note from JWR:

Yesterday, the dreaded TARP bill, H.R. 1424 (part of the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)), passed by a wide margin (263 to 171), in the US House of Representatives. The original bill was just three pages long, but the final version (see the full text PDF) was a whopping 451 pages. It was so stuffed with pork barrel legislation that was practically oozing grease. It disgusting to see so many legislators sign on to this $850 billion+ swindle. The few that voted for it were mostly from the far right and the far left.

The passage of the TARP bill should result in a short-lived stock market rally. Take advantage of the rally to cash out, and put the proceeds into tangibles. I do not believe that the TARP bailout will revive the credit market. At this point, a global depression lasting a decade or more seems very likely. Get ready to hunker down.

Replace Your FUD with Preparedness Action–a Pre-Crash “D” List

All of the recent economic news may be overwhelming to some. This has left many people virtually petrified by Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). Don’t be a proverbial “deer in the headlights.” I strongly encourage you get past your anxiety uncertainty and instead of sitting around glued to CNN, wringing your hands and saying “ain’t it awful”. Replace that angst with action. Get busy preparing. Here is my suggested Crash Countdown “D” List, for folks that are already fairly well-prepared:

1.) De-Hummelize

Sell off any collectibles that are not family heirlooms. The worst offenders here are the mass produced “limited edition” Hummel figurines, Beanie Babies and those collector plates from umpteen artists. Because I’ve mentioned this, please don’t think that I’m a misogynist. Men can be just as bad about acquiring trinkets! They are just manly trinkets. Far too many men have gun vaults chock full of “commemorative edition” guns with engraving and gold inlay that they would never dream of shOoting, for fear that their collector value would be diminished. I most strongly recommend that you sell off those guns and replace them with truly practical ones .These days, I lean toward stainless steel guns with synthetic stocks, because of their tremendous longevity.and resistance to corrosion. By selling off your toys and trinkets, you will be A.) clearing space for important logistics, and B.) generating cash to help purchase those same logistics. Trinket items have a ready market with eBay, especially this time of year, as people are shopping for Christmas gifts. Take nice crisp photos, start most of your items at a penny, and make sure that you charge enough to cover your postage and tracking costs.

2.) Dumpster Dive

Watch your local Craig’s List like a hawk. It is not unusual to find people giving away or selling a ridiculously low prices dozens of heavy duty canning jars, hand-crank meat grinders, chest freezers, shelving, and poultry brooder, horse tack, and so forth. I’ve even found running generators available free for the asking. (You haul.)

Mark your calendar for both community yard sales and the next time that your garbage collection service offers an “unlimited curbside pickup” day. Hook up your trailer the evening before, and see what you can find that is free for the taking. (Consult your local ordinances first, of course.) We’ve found lots of practical items that were still perfectly serviceable, such as rabbit cages, brooms, canes, geriatric walkers, and galvanized wash tubs (“gut buckets”) set out on the curb. It would be a shame to see useful item send up in a landfill.

3.) De-Procrastinate.

If you have been putting off any dental work, elective surgery, vehicle repairs, or getting new lenses for your eyeglasses, then start making appointments!

4.) Dump Your Dollars

Roll over your 401(k) and/or IRA into a gold IRA, available from through Swiss America Trading Company.

5.) Double-Up Your Staple Goods Shopping

Double up your staple groceries shopping. By doing so consistently, you will rapidly build up a supply of canned good. Make sure you mark the date of purchase on the top of each can with a permanent marker (such as a Sharpie pen), and put the most recently purchased cans at the back of the shelf . These are the essential points of “first-in, first-out” (FIFO) rotation.

6.) Divert Your Expenses

Cut out needless expenses, so that you can divert that cash into preparedness. Pare down your expenditures on movies and eating out. But don’t go overboard and make yourself (or your spouse and kids) miserable. OBTW, here is an example: The Memsahib’s sister found that she could skip Starbucks, and make herself an awesome Vanilla Latte at a 7-11 store, for less than half the price. Do comparison pricing. Is a NetFlix subscription less expensive than a cable movie package? Do you really have the time to watch that much television, anyway? I’m not say to do without life’s little pleasures. I’m just saying that there are some less expensive alternatives.

7.) Door-to-Door Introductions

Get to know your neighbors. Go door to door, if need be. Remind folks who you are. Connect names to faces. Make a list of phone numbers and e-mail addresses. Without being too pushy, quiz them a bit if they are “ready fort he next big storm”. Find out if any of them have prior military experience, or advanced medical skills. But of course don’t volunteer too much information about yourself. It is not wise to brand yourself at he neighborhood Whackamo.

8.) Drums, Cans, and Fuel Tanks

Top off your supplies of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene. Add fuel stabilizer and antibacterials (such as Pri-G and Pri-D), as needed.

9.) Detailed Contingency Plans and Packing Lists

Contact family and friends, and agree on contingency plans that you’ll follow, even if the telephone system and e-mail become inoperative. If any relatives are planning to join you at your retreat when TSHTF, then make sure they know exactly what they will need to pack. They may be able to make only one trip there, so they’ll have to make it count. (they need to have appropriate winter clothing, gloves, boots, gardening tools, bedding, and so forth to be productive at your retreat.

Letter Re: Saving Your Life and Saving Your Relationships–Don’t Drive Your Loved Ones Away

Dear Mr. Rawles,
Emotions are sure running high out there. I’ve tried my best, as a clinical psychologist, to let my readers know that they can have a good life, albeit of a very different sort, as our economy continues to
deteriorate. Your site has done so much to provide a blueprint and important details as to how to go about it. I’ve read some of your material (the Rawles Get You Ready [preparedness course]; “Patriots“, and your blog) and I see in your words the deep respect you have for your readership, and for the importance of leading a life worth living.

Thanks for your consideration, and for being there for so many years. – “Peak Shrink“

Letter Re: Advice for an Unprepared Greenhorn

Jim,
I’d recommend that “Greenhorn” should take a look at your “Profiles” page. I learned as much reading them as I do reading the blog! As you say, starting a “List of Lists” is invaluable to preparedness. It is the only way I can keep track of what I have on hand, whether it be too much or too little. And, just because I know it is a weak spot with everybody, more medical supplies is always a good thing.

Also, most gun shops have a layaway program, so it’s possible to at least start paying on another rifle or handgun. When you get one of these items, make sure the ammo to feed it is your very next purchase! I’d rather have just a couple of good, solid guns and lots of ammo, than a lot of cool-guy stuff and only one magazine of ammo for each.

Make a habit of checking eBay, Craig’s List and the local papers for good deals on things. If there is a sale at the local department store, I strongly recommend “buying ahead.” Meaning, buying children’s winter clothing in the spring when the stores are trying to clear it out, and buying a couple of sizes up. Same with shoes. Another great investment. This is one of those tangible investments that Jim speaks of all the time!

Most of all, stay calm! Breathe! Even having a few extra cases of beans and rice will put you ahead of most of your neighbors. Make sure the whole family is involved, and especially that your wife is your partner in everything you do. Take care. – SJC

Odds ‘n Sods:

Craig R. and Costa Rica Jones both sent us the link to this amazing video clip: Life in Foreclosure Alley. Do you remember what I wrote about “Midnight Flits”? Don’t miss the part near the end where they spray paint a dead lawn green. Its all about “curb appeal.”

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More Nanny State meddling, aimed at reducing bovine flatulence: Meat must be rationed to four portions a week, says report on climate change.

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Michael Z. Williamson sent us this video link showing home-brew autonomous gun developments. This kid could get a DARPA contract! Warning: Attempting this with a firearm would be an invitation to a lawsuit. This would also almost certainly be considered a “machinegun” by the BATFE (even if it fires semi-automatically), since it would fire more than one cartridge with the touch of the laptop keyboard–which they would deem to be the “trigger”. Do not attempt any such experiments!

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Randy F. sent us this link: French Prime Minister says world ‘on edge of abyss’. And here is a bunch more economic news and commentary for your weekend reading pleasure, courtesy of Cheryl: Tax Breaks Big And Small Sweeten Bailout — 600,000 Jobs Lost And Counting — Employers Cut More Jobs Than Since 2003? — Misdirected Bailout Will Make Housing Worse — Euro Bank Rescue In Tatters After Savings Rush — Suffering Businesses Go To 4-Day Work Week — US Banks Borrow Record Amounts From Fed — Asian Markets Fall On Recession Fears — FDIC Seeking Temporary Unlimited Treasury Loans — The Banking System Is Detonating Before Our Eyes — Wachovia Limits Access By Colleges, Inciting Fears — California May Need Emergency $7 Billion Loan — Fed Up With Fed Credit (The Mogambo Guru) — US Dollar Doomed As Credit Crisis Turns Into Currency Crisis — Time For Investors To Panic: SEC Abandons Sound Accounting Practices — Crisis Intensifies Amid Uncertainty — Office Space Emptying Out.

Notes from JWR:

Courtesy of the liberal majority in The U.S Senate, the TARP Bill (which is supposedly limited to $700 billion USD) appears to be a fait accompli. (It now headed to the House of Representatives.) Both senators McCain and Obama voted for it. (So much for us making any meaningful “choice” in the upcoming presidential election.) Disregard all the headlines, folks. In my estimation, the all-fired hurry to enact the TARP bailout was driven by a.) the sudden huge jump in the LIBOR rate, and b.) the chaos that is quietly is going on in the background with derivatives. The politicians have realized that if they don’t do something, and something right now, that global economy is going to come crashing down as soon as next week. And even with the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), the markets may crash, anyway. Things are really that bad. At present, the global credit market is frozen solid. More than anything, it resembles a Wooly Mammoth that was suddenly frozen stiff with clover grass still in its mouth. Applying CPR won’t help the beast. But Ben Bernanke and Congress are still doing their best to resuscitate it, putting on a good show for the public. There will have to be a new credit system established, to fill the ecological niche left by the Mammoth.

The first article today is a re-post of a piece that I wrote in early October of 2007. I can now see that my prediction was about one year too early. Given the recent news about the extent of the credit market meltdown, the hedge fund collapses may be even worse than I had foreseen.